Search results for: climate change risks

Authors: Keonwoo Kim, Dowon Hong, Kyoil Chung

Abstract:

This paper proposes the authentication method using ESA algorithm instead of using CAVE algorithm in the CDMA mobile communication systems including IS-95 and CDMA2000 1x. And, we analyze to apply ESA mechanism on behalf of CAVE mechanism without the change of message format and air interface in the existing CDMA systems. If ESA algorithm can be used as the substitution of CAVE algorithm, security strength of authentication algorithm is intensified without protocol change. An algorithm replacement proposed in this paper is not to change an authentication mechanism, but to configure input of ESA algorithm and to produce output. Therefore, our proposal can be the compatible to the existing systems.

Keywords: ESA, CAVE, CDMA, authentication, mobilecommunication.

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Authors: Asit K Sikary, O. P. Murty

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In this study, we have collected cases with adipocere formation, which were from the South Delhi region (average room temperature 27-390C) and autopsied at our centre. Details of the circumstances of the death, cause and time of death, surrounding environment and demographic profile of the deceased were taken into account. Total 16 cases were included in this study. Adipocere formation was predominantly present over cheeks, shoulder, breast, flanks, buttocks, and thighs. Out of 16, 11 cases were found in a dry atmosphere, 5 cases were brought from the water. There were 5 cases in which adipocere formation was seen in less than 2 days, and among them, in 1 case, as early as one day. This study showed that adipocere formation can be seen as early as 1 day in a hot and humid environment.

Keywords: Adipocere, drowning, hanging, humid environment, strangulation, subtropical climate.

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Authors: S. Esfandeh, M. Sedighizadeh

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Weather systems use enormously complex combinations of numerical tools for study and forecasting. Unfortunately, due to phenomena in the world climate, such as the greenhouse effect, classical models may become insufficient mostly because they lack adaptation. Therefore, the weather forecast problem is matched for heuristic approaches, such as Evolutionary Algorithms. Experimentation with heuristic methods like Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm can lead to the development of new insights or promising models that can be fine tuned with more focused techniques. This paper describes a PSO approach for analysis and prediction of data and provides experimental results of the aforementioned method on realworld meteorological time series.

Keywords: Weather, Climate, PSO, Prediction, Meteorological

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Authors: Farzaneh Ahmadzadeh

Abstract:

Quality control charts are very effective in detecting out of control signals but when a control chart signals an out of control condition of the process mean, searching for a special cause in the vicinity of the signal time would not always lead to prompt identification of the source(s) of the out of control condition as the change point in the process parameter(s) is usually different from the signal time. It is very important to manufacturer to determine at what point and which parameters in the past caused the signal. Early warning of process change would expedite the search for the special causes and enhance quality at lower cost. In this paper the quality variables under investigation are assumed to follow a multivariate normal distribution with known means and variance-covariance matrix and the process means after one step change remain at the new level until the special cause is being identified and removed, also it is supposed that only one variable could be changed at the same time. This research applies artificial neural network (ANN) to identify the time the change occurred and the parameter which caused the change or shift. The performance of the approach was assessed through a computer simulation experiment. The results show that neural network performs effectively and equally well for the whole shift magnitude which has been considered.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, change point estimation, monte carlo simulation, multivariate exponentially weighted movingaverage

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Authors: N.A.M. Yahya, W.H. Lim, S.W. Phang, H. Ahmad, R. Zakaria, F.R. Mahamd Adikan

Abstract:

Refractive index control of benzocyclobutene (BCB 4024-40) is achieved by facilitating different conditions during the thermal curing of BCB film. Refractive index (RI) change of 1.49% is obtained with curing of BCB film using an oven, while the RI change is 0.1% when the BCB is cured using a hotplate. The two different curing methods exhibit a temperature dependent refractive index change of the BCB photosensitive polymer. By carefully controlling the curing conditions, multiple layers of BCB with different RI can be fabricated, which can then be applied in the fabrication of optical waveguides.

Keywords: BCB 4024-40, curing method, multiple refractiveindex, polymers.

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Authors: Gerard E. Sleefe

Abstract:

There is significant interest in achieving technology innovation through new product development activities. It is recognized, however, that traditional project management practices focused only on performance, cost, and schedule attributes, can often lead to risk mitigation strategies that limit new technology innovation. In this paper, a new approach is proposed for formally managing and quantifying technology innovation. This approach uses a risk-based framework that simultaneously optimizes innovation attributes along with traditional project management and system engineering attributes. To demonstrate the efficacy of the new riskbased approach, a comprehensive product development experiment was conducted. This experiment simultaneously managed the innovation risks and the product delivery risks through the proposed risk-based framework. Quantitative metrics for technology innovation were tracked and the experimental results indicate that the risk-based approach can simultaneously achieve both project deliverable and innovation objectives.

Keywords: innovation, risk assessment, product development, technology management.

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Authors: Karolina Porada

Abstract:

Over the last 40 years, there has been a trend in landscape architecture which supporters do not perceive the role of pro-ecological or postmodern solutions in the design of public green spaces as an essential goal, shifting their attention to the 'sculptural' shaping of areas with the use of slopes, hills, embankments, and other forms of terrain. This group of designers can be considered avant-garde, which in its activities refers to land art. Initial research shows that such applications are particularly frequent in places of former post-industrial sites and landfills, utilizing materials such as debris and post-mining waste in their construction. Due to the high degradation of the environment surrounding modern man, the brownfields are a challenge and a field of interest for the representatives of landscape architecture avant-garde, who through their projects try to recover lost lands by means of transformations supported by engineering and ecological knowledge to create places where nature can develop again. The analysis of a dozen or so facilities made it possible to come up with an important conclusion: apart from the cultural aspects (including artistic activities), the green areas formally referring to the land are important in the process of remediation of post-industrial sites and waste recycling (e. g. from construction sites). In these processes, there is also a potential for applying the concept of Natural Based Solutions, i.e. solutions allowing for the natural development of the site in such a way as to use it to cope with environmental problems, such as e.g.  air pollution, soil phytoremediation and climate change. The paper presents examples of modern parks, whose compositions are based on shaping the surface of the terrain in a way referring to the land art, at the same time providing an example of brownfields reuse and application of waste recycling.  For the purposes of object analysis, research methods such as historical-interpretation studies, case studies, qualitative research or the method of logical argumentation were used. The obtained results provide information about the role that landscape architecture can have in the process of remediation of degraded areas, at the same time guaranteeing the benefits, such as the shaping of landscapes attractive in terms of visual appearance, low costs of implementation, and improvement of the natural environment quality.

Keywords: Brownfields, landscape architecture, contemporary parks, remediation.

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Authors: Hala A. Alrumaih

Abstract:

It is widely believed that mobile device is a promising technology for lending the opportunity for the third wave of electronic commerce. Mobile devices have changed the way companies do business. Many applications are under development or being incorporated into business processes. In this day, mobile applications are a vital component of any industry strategy.One of the greatest benefits of selling merchandise and providing services on a mobile application is that it widens a company’s customer base significantly.Mobile applications are accessible to interested customers across regional and international borders in different electronic business (e-business) area. But there is a dark side to this success story. The security risks associated with mobile devices and applications are very significant. This paper introduces a broad risk analysis for the various threats, vulnerabilities, and risks in mobile e-business applications and presents some important risk mitigation approaches. It reviews and compares two different frameworks for security assurance in mobile e-business applications. Based on the comparison, the paper suggests some recommendations for applications developers and business owners in mobile e-business application development process.

Keywords: E-business, Mobile Applications, Risk mitigations, Security assurance.

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Authors: J. I. Santos, A. E. Cesarin, C. A. R. Sales, M. B. B. Triano, P. F. R. B. Martins, A. F. Braga, N. J. Neto, A., A. M. Barroso, P. L. C. A. Alves, C. A. M. Huaman

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Climate change projections based on the emission of greenhouse effect gases suggest an increase in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, in up to 750 ppm. In this scenario, we have significant changes in plant development, and consequently, in agricultural systems. This study aims to evaluate the interaction between culture (Glycine max) and weed (Amaranthus viridis and Euphorbia heterophylla) in two conditions of CO₂, 400 and 800 ppm. The results showed that the coexistence of culture with both weed species resulted in a mutual loss, with decrease in dry mass productivity of culture + weeds, in both conditions of CO₂. However, when the culture is grown in association with E. heterophylla, total dry mass of culture + weed was smaller at 800 ppm. Soybean was more aggressive in comparison to the A. viridis in both the concentrations of CO₂, but not in relation to the E. heterophylla.

Keywords: Plants interaction, increase of [CO2], plants of metabolism C3, Glycine max.

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Authors: Jandot Aurélia

Abstract:

As the nuclear power is a sensitive field leading to controversy, the quality of the communication about it is important. Between 1965 and 1981, in France, this one had gradually changed. This change is studied here in the main French news magazine L’Express, in connection with several parameters. As this represents a huge number of copies and occurrences, thus a considerable amount of information; this paper is focused on the main articles as well as the main “mental images”. These ones are important, as their aim is to direct the thought of the readers, and as they have led the public awareness to evolve. Over this 17 years, two trends are in confrontation: The first one is promoting the perception of the nuclear power, while the second one is discrediting it. These trends are organized in two axes: the evolution of engineering, and the risks. In both cases, the changes in the language allow discerning the deepest intentions of the magazine editing, over a period when the nuclear technology, to there a laboratory object accompanied with mystery and secret, has become a social issue seemingly open to all.

Keywords: French news magazine, mental images, nuclear power, public awareness.

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Authors: Farhad Asadi, Hossein Sadati

Abstract:

In fields such as neuroscience and especially in cognition modeling of mental processes, uncertainty processing in temporal zone of signal is vital. In this paper, Bayesian online inferences in estimation of change-points location in signal are constructed. This method separated the observed signal into independent series and studies the change and variation of the regime of data locally with related statistical characteristics. We give conditions on simulations of the method when the data characteristics of signals vary, and provide empirical evidence to show the performance of method. It is verified that correlation between series around the change point location and its characteristics such as Signal to Noise Ratios and mean value of signal has important factor on fluctuating in finding proper location of change point. And one of the main contributions of this study is related to representing of these influences of signal statistical characteristics for finding abrupt variation in signal. There are two different structures for simulations which in first case one abrupt change in temporal section of signal is considered with variable position and secondly multiple variations are considered. Finally, influence of statistical characteristic for changing the location of change point is explained in details in simulation results with different artificial signals.

Keywords: Time series, fluctuation in statistical characteristics, optimal learning.

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Authors: Kanittha Kanokkanjana, Savitri Garivait

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This study focuses on emission of black carbon (BC) from field open burning of corn residues. Real-time BC concentration was measured by Micro Aethalometer from field burning and simulated open burning in a chamber (SOC) experiments. The average concentration of BC was 1.18±0.47 mg/m3 in the field and 0.89±0.63 mg/m3 in the SOC. The deduced emission factor from field experiments was 0.50±0.20 gBC/kgdm, and 0.56±0.33 gBC/kgdm from SOC experiment, which are in good agreement with other studies. In 2007, the total burned area of corn crop was 8,000 ha, resulting in an emission load of BC 20 ton corresponding to 44.5 million kg CO2 equivalent. Therefore, the control of open burning in corn field represents a significant global warming reduction option.

Keywords: Black carbon, corn field residues, global warming, mitigation option

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Authors: T. Rashid, T. Kechadi

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This paper is a continuation of our daily energy peak load forecasting approach using our modified network which is part of the recurrent networks family and is called feed forward and feed back multi context artificial neural network (FFFB-MCANN). The inputs to the network were exogenous variables such as the previous and current change in the weather components, the previous and current status of the day and endogenous variables such as the past change in the loads. Endogenous variable such as the current change in the loads were used on the network output. Experiment shows that using endogenous and exogenous variables as inputs to the FFFBMCANN rather than either exogenous or endogenous variables as inputs to the same network produces better results. Experiments show that using the change in variables such as weather components and the change in the past load as inputs to the FFFB-MCANN rather than the absolute values for the weather components and past load as inputs to the same network has a dramatic impact and produce better accuracy.

Keywords: Daily peak load forecasting, feed forward and feedback multi-context neural network.

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Authors: D. He, Y. Pang, G. Lodewijks

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Belt conveyors play an important role in continuous dry bulk material transport, especially at the mining industry. Speed control is expected to reduce the energy consumption of belt conveyors. Transient operation is the operation of increasing or decreasing conveyor speed for speed control. According to literature review, current research rarely takes the conveyor dynamics in transient operation into account. However, in belt conveyor speed control, the conveyor dynamic behaviors are significantly important since the poor dynamics might result in risks. In this paper, the potential risks in transient operation will be analyzed. An existing finite element model will be applied to build a conveyor model, and simulations will be carried out to analyze the conveyor dynamics. In order to realize the soft speed regulation, Harrison’s sinusoid acceleration profile will be applied, and Lodewijks estimator will be built to approximate the required acceleration time. A long inclined belt conveyor will be studied with two major simulations. The conveyor dynamics will be given.

Keywords: Belt conveyor, speed control, transient operation, dynamics

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Authors: Cristina G. Dascalu, Elena Mihaela Carausu, Daniela Manuc

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The medical studies often require different methods for parameters selection, as a second step of processing, after the database-s designing and filling with information. One common task is the selection of fields that act as risk factors using wellknown methods, in order to find the most relevant risk factors and to establish a possible hierarchy between them. Different methods are available in this purpose, one of the most known being the binary logistic regression. We will present the mathematical principles of this method and a practical example of using it in the analysis of the influence of 10 different psychiatric diagnostics over 4 different types of offences (in a database made from 289 psychiatric patients involved in different types of offences). Finally, we will make some observations about the relation between the risk factors hierarchy established through binary logistic regression and the individual risks, as well as the results of Chi-squared test. We will show that the hierarchy built using the binary logistic regression doesn-t agree with the direct order of risk factors, even if it was naturally to assume this hypothesis as being always true.

Keywords: Databases, risk factors, binary logisticregression, hierarchy.

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Authors: Gamze Fahriye Pehlivan, Tulay Canitez

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The traditional Turkish houses becoming unusable are a result of the deterioration of the balanced interaction between users and house (human and house) continuing during the history. Especially depending upon the change in social structure, the houses becoming neglected do not meet the desires of the users and do not have the meaning but the shelter are becoming unusable and are being destroyed. A conservation policy should be developed and renovations should be made in order to pass the traditional houses carrying the quality of a cultural and historical document presenting the social structure, the lifestyle and the traditions of its own age to the next generations and to keep them alive.

Keywords: House, social structural change, social structural, traditional Turkish houses.

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Authors: U. Datta

Abstract:

The main objective of this study is to find a suitable approach to monitor the land infrastructure growth over a period of time using multispectral satellite images. Bi-temporal change detection method is unable to indicate the continuous change occurring over a long period of time. To achieve this objective, the approach used here estimates a statistical model from series of multispectral image data over a long period of time, assuming there is no considerable change during that time period and then compare it with the multispectral image data obtained at a later time. The change is estimated pixel-wise. Statistical composite hypothesis technique is used for estimating pixel based change detection in a defined region. The generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) is used to detect the changed pixel from probabilistic estimated model of the corresponding pixel. The changed pixel is detected assuming that the images have been co-registered prior to estimation. To minimize error due to co-registration, 8-neighborhood pixels around the pixel under test are also considered. The multispectral images from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 from 2015 to 2018 are used for this purpose. There are different challenges in this method. First and foremost challenge is to get quite a large number of datasets for multivariate distribution modelling. A large number of images are always discarded due to cloud coverage. Due to imperfect modelling there will be high probability of false alarm. Overall conclusion that can be drawn from this work is that the probabilistic method described in this paper has given some promising results, which need to be pursued further.

Keywords: Co-registration, GLRT, infrastructure growth, multispectral, multitemporal, pixel-based change detection.

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Authors: Bishnupriya Sahoo, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

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Tropical cyclone is one among the worst natural hazards that results in a trail of destruction causing enormous damage to life, property, and coastal infrastructures. In a global perspective, the Indian Ocean is considered as one of the cyclone prone basins in the world. Specifically, the frequency of cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal is higher compared to the Arabian Sea. Out of the four maritime states in the East coast of India, Odisha is highly susceptible to tropical cyclone landfall. Historical records clearly decipher the fact that the frequency of cyclones have reduced in this basin. However, in the recent decades, the intensity and size of tropical cyclones have increased. This is a matter of concern as the risk and vulnerability level of Odisha coast exposed to high wind speed and gusts during cyclone landfall have increased. In this context, there is a need to assess and evaluate the severity of coastal risk, area of exposure under risk, and associated vulnerability with a higher dimension in a multi-risk perspective. Changing climate can result in the emergence of a new hazard and vulnerability over a region with differential spatial and socio-economic impact. Hence there is a need to have coastal vulnerability projections in a changing climate scenario. With this motivation, the present study attempts to estimate the destructiveness of tropical cyclones based on Power Dissipation Index (PDI) for those cyclones that made landfall along Odisha coast that exhibits an increasing trend based on historical data. The study also covers the futuristic scenarios of integral coastal vulnerability based on the trends in PDI for the Odisha coast. This study considers 11 essential and important parameters; the cyclone intensity, storm surge, onshore inundation, mean tidal range, continental shelf slope, topo-graphic elevation onshore, rate of shoreline change, maximum wave height, relative sea level rise, rainfall distribution, and coastal geomorphology. The study signifies that over a decadal scale, the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) depends largely on the incremental change in variables such as cyclone intensity, storm surge, and associated inundation. In addition, the study also performs a critical analysis on the modulation of PDI on storm surge and inundation characteristics for the entire coastal belt of Odisha State. Interestingly, the study brings to light that a linear correlation exists between the storm-tide with PDI. The trend analysis of PDI and its projection for coastal Odisha have direct practical applications in effective coastal zone management and vulnerability assessment.

Keywords: Bay of Bengal, coastal vulnerability index, power dissipation index, tropical cyclone.

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Authors: N. N. Mosola, K. F. Moeketsi, R. Sehobai, N. Pule

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The Internet brings increasing use of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) services and facilities. Consequently, new computing paradigms emerge to provide services over the Internet. Although there are several benefits stemming from these services, they pose several risks inherited from the Internet. For example, cybercrime, identity theft, malware etc. To thwart these risks, this paper proposes a holistic approach. This approach involves multidisciplinary interactions. The paper proposes a top-down and bottom-up approach to deal with cyber security concerns in developing countries. These concerns range from regulatory and legislative areas, cyber awareness, research and development, technical dimensions etc. The main focus areas are highlighted and a cybersecurity model solution is proposed. The paper concludes by combining all relevant solutions into a proposed cybersecurity model to assist developing countries in enhancing a cyber-safe environment to instill and promote a culture of cybersecurity.

Keywords: Cybercrime, cybersecurity, computer emergency response team, computer security incident response team.

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Authors: Priyadarshinee Adhikari, Neeta Gargote, Jyothi Digge, B.G. Hogade

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A number of automated shot-change detection methods for indexing a video sequence to facilitate browsing and retrieval have been proposed in recent years. This paper emphasizes on the simulation of video shot boundary detection using one of the methods of the color histogram wherein scaling of the histogram metrics is an added feature. The difference between the histograms of two consecutive frames is evaluated resulting in the metrics. Further scaling of the metrics is performed to avoid ambiguity and to enable the choice of apt threshold for any type of videos which involves minor error due to flashlight, camera motion, etc. Two sample videos are used here with resolution of 352 X 240 pixels using color histogram approach in the uncompressed media. An attempt is made for the retrieval of color video. The simulation is performed for the abrupt change in video which yields 90% recall and precision value.

Keywords: Abrupt change, color histogram, ground-truthing, precision, recall, scaling, threshold.

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Authors: Michael Ajide Oyinloye

Abstract:

Generally the natural environment is made up of air, water and soil. The release of emission of industrial waste into anyone of the components of the environment causes pollution. Industrial pollution significantly threatens the inherent right of people, to the enjoyment of a safe and secure environment. The aim of this paper is to assess the effect of environmental pollution and health risks of residents living near Ewekoro cement factory. The research made use of IKONOS imagery for Geographical Information System (GIS) to buffer and extract buildings that are less than 1km to the factory, within 1km to 5km and above 5km to the factory. Also questionnaire was used to elicit information on the socio-economic factors, effect of environmental pollution on residents and measures adopted to control industrial pollution on the residents. Findings show that most buildings that fall between less than 1km and 1km to 5km to the factory have high health risk in the study area. The study recommended total relocation for the residents of the study area to reduce health risk problems.

Keywords: Environmental pollution, Ewekoro, GIS, Health risk, Satellite imagery.

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Authors: A. Jamekhorshid, S. M. Sadrameli

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This paper presents the modeling results of an innovative system for the temperature control in the interior compartment of a stationary automobile facing the solar energy from the sun. A very thin layer of PCM inside a pouch placed in the ceiling of the car in which the heating energy is absorbed and release with melting and solidification of phase change materials. As a result the temperature of the car interior is maintained in the comfort condition. The amount of required PCM has been calculated to be about 755 g. The PCM-temperature controlling system is simple and has a potential to be implemented as a practical solution to prevent undesirable heating of the automobile-s cabin.

Keywords: Phase Change Material (PCM), automobile's cabin, temperature control

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Authors: Erisasadat Sahebzamani, Núria Forcada, Francisco Lendinez

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Global climate change has become increasingly problematic over the past few decades. The construction industry has contributed to greenhouse gas emissions in recent decades. Considering these issues and the high demand for materials in the construction industry, Circular Economy (CE) is considered necessary to keep materials in the loop and extend their useful lives. By providing tangible benefits, Construction 4.0 facilitates the adoption of CE by reducing waste, updating standard work, sharing knowledge, and increasing transparency and stability. This study aims to present a framework for integrating CE and digital tools like Building Information Modeling (BIM) and Virtual Reality (VR) to examine the impact on the construction industry based on stakeholders' perspectives.

Keywords: Circular Economy, Building Information Modeling, Virtual Reality, stakeholder engagement.

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Authors: D. Kubiliute

Abstract:

The Republic of Lithuania is known as a trusted location for global business institutions and it attracts investors with its competitive environment for financial service providers. Along with the aspiration to offer a strong results-oriented and innovations-driven environment for financial service providers, Lithuanian regulatory authorities consistently implement the European Union's high regulatory standards for financial activities including sustainability-related disclosures. Since the European Union directed its policy towards transition to a climate-neutral, green, competitive and inclusive economy, additional regulatory requirements for financial market participants are adopted: disclosure of sustainable activities, transparency, prevention of greenwashing, and other. The financial sector is one of the key factors influencing the implementation of sustainability objectives in the European Union policies and mitigating the negative effects of climate change – public funds are not enough to make a significant impact on sustainable investments, therefore directing public and private capital to green projects may help to finance the necessary changes. The topic of the study is original and has not yet been widely analyzed in Lithuanian legal discourse. There are used quantitative and qualitative methodologies, logical, systematic and critical analysis principles, hence the aim of this study is to reveal the problematic of the implementation of regulation on sustainability in the Lithuanian financial sector. Additional regulatory requirements could cause serious changes in financial business operations: additional funds, employees and time have to be dedicated in order the companies could implement these regulations. Lack of knowledge and data on how to implement new regulatory requirements towards sustainable reporting causes a lot of uncertainty for financial market participants. And for some companies it might even be an essential point in terms of business continuity. It is considered that the supervisory authorities should find a balance between financial market needs and legal regulation.

Keywords: Financial, market participant, legal, regulation, sustainability.

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Authors: Yung Chang Chen, Po Yi Tsai, I An Lai

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The roll center is one of the key parameters for designing a suspension. Several driving characteristics are affected significantly by the migration of the roll center during the suspension-s motion. The strut/SLA (strut/short-long-arm) suspension, which is widely used in production cars, combines the space-saving characteristics of a MacPherson strut suspension with some of the preferred handling characteristics of an SLA suspension. In this study, a front strut/SLA suspension is modeled by ADAMS/Car software. Kinematic roll analysis is then employed to investigate how the rolling characteristics change under the wheel travel and steering input. The related parameters, including the roll center height, roll camber gain, toe change, scrub radius and wheel track width change, are analyzed and discussed. It is found that the strut/SLA suspension clearly has a higher roll center than strut and SLA suspensions do. The variations in the roll center height under roll analysis are very different as the wheel travel displacement and steering angle are added. The results of the roll camber gain, scrub radius and wheel track width change are considered satisfactory. However, the toe change is too large and needs fine-tuning through a sensitivity analysis.

Keywords: roll analysis, roll center height, steering, strut/SLA suspension, wheel travel

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Authors: A. A. Azemati, H. Hosseini, B. Shirkavand Hadavand

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By using an adequate thermal barrier coating in buildings the energy saving will be happened. In this study, a range of wall paints with different absorption coefficient in different climates has been investigated. In order to study these effects, heating and cooling loads of a common building with different ordinary paints and paint with mineral coating have been calculated. The effect of building paint in different climatic condition was studied and comparison was done between ordinary paints and paint with mineral insulators in temperate climate to obtain optimized energy consumption. The results have been shown that coatings with inorganic micro particles as insulation reduce the energy consumption of buildings around 14%.

Keywords: Insulator, coating, climate, energy consumption.

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Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

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Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: Complex adaptive systems, X-events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number.

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Authors: Mohammad Rostami Mehr, Seyed Arya Mir Rashed, Arndt Lueder, Magdalena Mißler-Behr

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This paper represents the conception that complex problems do not necessary need similar complex solutions in order to cope with the complexity. Furthermore, a simple solution based on established methods can provide a sufficient way dealing with the complexity. To verify this conception, the presented paper focuses on the field of change management as a part of new product development process in automotive sector. In the field of complexity management, dealing with increasing complexity is essential, while, only non-flexible rigid processes that are not designed to handle complexity are available. The basic methodology of this paper can be divided in four main sections: 1) analyzing the complexity of the change management, 2) literature review in order to identify potential solutions and methods, 3) capturing and implementing expertise of experts from change management filed of an automobile manufacturing company and 4) systematical comparison of the identified methods from literature and connecting these with defined requirements of the complexity of the change management in order to develop a solution. As a practical outcome, this paper provides a method to capture the complexity of engineering changes (EC) and includes it within the EC evaluation process, following case-related process guidance to cope with the complexity. Furthermore, this approach supports the conception that dealing with complexity is possible while utilizing rather simple and established methods by combining them in to a powerful tool.

Keywords: complexity management, new product development, engineering change management, flexibility

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Authors: L. Lindsay, S. A. Coleman, D. Kerr, B. J. Taylor, A. Moorhead

Abstract:

Cognitive decline and frailty is apparent in older adults leading to an increased likelihood of the risk of falling. Currently health care professionals have to make professional decisions regarding such risks, and hence make difficult decisions regarding the future welfare of the ageing population. This study uses health data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), focusing on adults over the age of 50 years, in order to analyse health risk factors and predict the likelihood of falls. This prediction is based on the use of machine learning algorithms whereby health risk factors are used as inputs to predict the likelihood of falling. Initial results show that health risk factors such as long-term health issues contribute to the number of falls. The identification of such health risk factors has the potential to inform health and social care professionals, older people and their family members in order to mitigate daily living risks.

Keywords: Classification, falls, health risk factors, machine learning, older adults.

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Authors: Nils Ischdonat

Abstract:

The accomplished study is based on the appointment and identification of ageing effects and according to this absorption of moisture of aircraft cabin components over the life-cycle. In the first step of the study ceiling panels from same age and from the same aircraft cabin have been examined according to weight changes depending on the position in the aircraft cabin. In the second step of the study different aged ceiling panels have been examined concerning deflection, weight changes and the acoustic sound transmission loss. To prove the assumption of water absorption within the study and with the theoretical background from literature and scientific papers, an older test panel was exposed extreme thermal conditions (humidity and temperature) within a climate chamber to show that there is a general ingress of water to cabin components and that this ingress of water leads to the change of different mechanical properties.

Keywords: Aircraft Cabin, water ingress, ageing effects, sound transmission loss

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