Search results for: Trend equations.

Authors: Nurhakimah Ab. Rahman, Lazim Abdullah

Abstract:

According to fuzzy arithmetic, dual fuzzy polynomials cannot be replaced by fuzzy polynomials. Hence, the concept of ranking method is used to find real roots of dual fuzzy polynomial equations. Therefore, in this study we want to propose an interval type-2 dual fuzzy polynomial equation (IT2 DFPE). Then, the concept of ranking method also is used to find real roots of IT2 DFPE (if exists). We transform IT2 DFPE to system of crisp IT2 DFPE. This transformation performed with ranking method of fuzzy numbers based on three parameters namely value, ambiguity and fuzziness. At the end, we illustrate our approach by two numerical examples.

Keywords: Dual fuzzy polynomial equations, Interval type-2, Ranking method, Value.

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Authors: Xin Luo, Jin Huang, Chuan-Long Wang

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The mechanical quadrature methods for solving the boundary integral equations of the anisotropic Darcy-s equations with Dirichlet conditions in smooth domains are presented. By applying the collectively compact theory, we prove the convergence and stability of approximate solutions. The asymptotic expansions for the error show that the methods converge with the order O (h3), where h is the mesh size. Based on these analysis, extrapolation methods can be introduced to achieve a higher convergence rate O (h5). An a posterior asymptotic error representation is derived in order to construct self-adaptive algorithms. Finally, the numerical experiments show the efficiency of our methods.

Keywords: Darcy's equation, anisotropic, mechanical quadrature methods, extrapolation methods, a posteriori error estimate.

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Authors: Naveed Ahmed, Gunar Matthies

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We deal with the numerical solution of time-dependent convection-diffusion-reaction equations. We combine the local projection stabilization method for the space discretization with two different time discretization schemes: the continuous Galerkin-Petrov (cGP) method and the discontinuous Galerkin (dG) method of polynomial of degree k. We establish the optimal error estimates and present numerical results which shows that the cGP(k) and dG(k)- methods are accurate of order k +1, respectively, in the whole time interval. Moreover, the cGP(k)-method is superconvergent of order 2k and dG(k)-method is of order 2k +1 at the discrete time points. Furthermore, the dependence of the results on the choice of the stabilization parameter are discussed and compared.

Keywords: Convection-diffusion-reaction equations, stabilized finite elements, discontinuous Galerkin, continuous Galerkin-Petrov.

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Authors: M. Behbahani-Nejad, Y. Shekari

Abstract:

A reduced order modeling approach for natural gas transient flow in pipelines is presented. The Euler equations are considered as the governing equations and solved numerically using the implicit Steger-Warming flux vector splitting method. Next, the linearized form of the equations is derived and the corresponding eigensystem is obtained. Then, a few dominant flow eigenmodes are used to construct an efficient reduced-order model. A well-known test case is presented to demonstrate the accuracy and the computational efficiency of the proposed method. The results obtained are in good agreement with those of the direct numerical method and field data. Moreover, it is shown that the present reduced-order model is more efficient than the conventional numerical techniques for transient flow analysis of natural gas in pipelines.

Keywords: Eigenmode, Natural Gas, Reduced Order Modeling, Transient Flow.

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Authors: Reza Abazari, Rasool Abazari

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In this paper, the two-dimension differential transformation method (DTM) is employed to obtain the closed form solutions of the three famous coupled partial differential equation with physical interest namely, the coupled Korteweg-de Vries(KdV) equations, the coupled Burgers equations and coupled nonlinear Schrödinger equation. We begin by showing that how the differential transformation method applies to a linear and non-linear part of any PDEs and apply on these coupled PDEs to illustrate the sufficiency of the method for this kind of nonlinear differential equations. The results obtained are in good agreement with the exact solution. These results show that the technique introduced here is accurate and easy to apply.

Keywords: Coupled Korteweg-de Vries(KdV) equation, Coupled Burgers equation, Coupled Schrödinger equation, differential transformation method.

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Authors: N. A. Samat, D. F. Percy

Abstract:

The main aim of this study is to describe and introduce a method of numerical analysis in obtaining approximate solutions for the SIR-SI differential equations (susceptible-infectiverecovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) that represent a model for dengue disease transmission. Firstly, we describe the ordinary differential equations for the SIR-SI disease transmission models. Then, we introduce the numerical analysis of solutions of this continuous time, discrete space SIR-SI model by simplifying the continuous time scale to a densely populated, discrete time scale. This is followed by the application of this numerical analysis of solutions of the SIR-SI differential equations to the estimation of relative risk using continuous time, discrete space dengue data of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Finally, we present the results of the analysis, comparing and displaying the results in graphs, table and maps. Results of the numerical analysis of solutions that we implemented offers a useful and potentially superior model for estimating relative risks based on continuous time, discrete space data for vector borne infectious diseases specifically for dengue disease. 

Keywords: Dengue disease, disease mapping, numerical analysis, SIR-SI differential equations.

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Authors: Rabindra K. Panda, Gurjeet Singh

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The major objective of this study was to analyze the trend and variability of rainfall in the middle Mahandi river basin located in eastern India. The trend of variation of extreme rainfall events has predominant effect on agricultural water management and extreme hydrological events such as floods and droughts. Mahanadi river basin is one of the major river basins of India having an area of 1,41,589 km² and divided into three regions: Upper, middle and delta region. The middle region of Mahanadi river basin has an area of 48,700 km² and it is mostly dominated by agricultural land, where agriculture is mostly rainfed. The study region has five Agro-climatic zones namely: East and South Eastern Coastal Plain, North Eastern Ghat, Western Undulating Zone, Western Central Table Land and Mid Central Table Land, which were numbered as zones 1 to 5 respectively for convenience in reporting. In the present study, analysis of variability and trends of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall was carried out, using the daily rainfall data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for 35 years (1979-2013) for the 5 agro-climatic zones. The long term variability of rainfall was investigated by evaluating the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The long term trend of rainfall was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. It was found that there is a decreasing trend in the rainfall during the winter and pre monsoon seasons for zones 2, 3 and 4; whereas in the monsoon (rainy) season there is an increasing trend for zones 1, 4 and 5 with a level of significance ranging between 90-95%. On the other hand, the mean annual rainfall has an increasing trend at 99% significance level. The estimated seasonality index showed that the rainfall distribution is asymmetric and distributed over 3-4 months period. The study will help to understand the spatio-temporal variation of rainfall and to determine the correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study region for multifarious use.

Keywords: Eastern India, long-term variability and trends, Mann-Kendall test, seasonality index, spatio-temporal variation.

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Authors: Jessada Tariboon

Abstract:

In this article, using distribution kernel, we study the nonlinear equations with n-dimensional telegraph operator iterated k-times.

Keywords: Telegraph operator, Elementary solution, Distribution kernel.

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Authors: Dylan M. Copeland

Abstract:

We present new finite element methods for Helmholtz and Maxwell equations on general three-dimensional polyhedral meshes, based on domain decomposition with boundary elements on the surfaces of the polyhedral volume elements. The methods use the lowest-order polynomial spaces and produce sparse, symmetric linear systems despite the use of boundary elements. Moreover, piecewise constant coefficients are admissible. The resulting approximation on the element surfaces can be extended throughout the domain via representation formulas. Numerical experiments confirm that the convergence behavior on tetrahedral meshes is comparable to that of standard finite element methods, and equally good performance is attained on more general meshes.

Keywords: Boundary elements, finite elements, Helmholtz equation, Maxwell equations.

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Authors: Li Xiguang

Abstract:

In this paper, by constructing a special set and utilizing fixed point index theory, we study the existence of solution for the boundary value problem of second-order singular differential equations in Banach space, which improved and generalize the result of related paper.

Keywords: Banach space, cone, fixed point index, singular equation.

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Authors: Kholod M. Abu-Alnaja

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In this work, we derive two numerical schemes for solving a class of nonlinear partial differential equations. The first method is of second order accuracy in space and time directions, the scheme is unconditionally stable using Von Neumann stability analysis, the scheme produced a nonlinear block system where Newton-s method is used to solve it. The second method is of fourth order accuracy in space and second order in time. The method is unconditionally stable and Newton's method is used to solve the nonlinear block system obtained. The exact single soliton solution and the conserved quantities are used to assess the accuracy and to show the robustness of the schemes. The interaction of two solitary waves for different parameters are also discussed.

Keywords: Crank-Nicolson Scheme, Douglas Scheme, Partial Differential Equations

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Authors: Toan Vu Duc, Son Ha Viet

Abstract:

An evaluation of the PCBs residues in the surface soils from Bacninh, Vietnam was carried out. Sixty representative soil samples were collected from the centre of Bacninh and three surrounding districts. The analyzed results indicated the wide extent of contamination of total PCBs in Bacninh. In industrial and urban zones, total PCBs concentrations ranged from ranged from <0.02 to 32.68ng g-1 (mean 19.89 ±15.64ng g-1) dry weight, while those in agricultural zones ranged from <0.02 to 13.26ng g-1 (mean 8.14 ± 4.89ng g-1) dry weight. The mean percentages of PCB28, PCB52, PCB101, PCB138, PCB153 and PCB180 compared with Σ6PCBs in the analyzed soil samples are 3.1%, 13.9%, 21.7%, 30.7%, 25.8% and 4.8%, respectively. These values can be explained by the chemical properties as well as the compositions of PCBs mixture which probably escaped from dielectric oil. An increasing trend and the long-time release of PCBs are observed.

Keywords: Contamination, PCBs, soil, temporal trend.

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Authors: Faranak Rabiei, Fudziah Ismail, S. Norazak, Saeid Emadi

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In this paper we developed the Improved Runge-Kutta Nystrom (IRKN) method for solving second order ordinary differential equations. The methods are two step in nature and require lower number of function evaluations per step compared with the existing Runge-Kutta Nystrom (RKN) methods. Therefore, the methods are computationally more efficient at achieving the higher order of local accuracy. Algebraic order conditions of the method are obtained and the third and fourth order method are derived with two and three stages respectively. The numerical results are given to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method compared to the existing RKN methods.

Keywords: Improved Runge-Kutta Nystrom method, Two step method, Second-order ordinary differential equations, Order conditions

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Authors: Li Xiguang

Abstract:

In this paper, by constructing a special set and utilizing fixed point theory, we study the existence and multiplicity of the positive solutions for systems of nonlinear third-order differential equations with p-laplacian, which improve and generalize the result of related paper.

Keywords: p-Laplacian, cone, fixed point theorem, positive solution.

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Authors: Felix Che Shu

Abstract:

We give an explicit formula for the general solution of a one dimensional linear delay differential equation with multiple delays, which are integer multiples of the smallest delay. For an equation of this class with two delays, we derive two equations with single delays, whose stability is sufficient for the stability of the equation with two delays. This presents a new approach to the study of the stability of such systems. This approach avoids requirement of the knowledge of the location of the characteristic roots of the equation with multiple delays which are generally more difficult to determine, compared to the location of the characteristic roots of equations with a single delay.

Keywords: Delay Differential Equation, Explicit Solution, Exponential Stability, Lyapunov Exponents, Multiple Delays.

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Authors: B. I. Yun

Abstract:

A dual-reciprocity boundary element method is presented for the numerical solution of a class of axisymmetric elastodynamic problems. The domain integrals that arise in the integrodifferential formulation are converted to line integrals by using the dual-reciprocity method together suitably constructed interpolating functions. The second order time derivatives of the displacement in the governing partial differential equations are suppressed by using Laplace transformation. In the Laplace transform domain, the problem under consideration is eventually reduced to solving a system of linear algebraic equations. Once the linear algebraic equations are solved, the displacement and stress fields in the physical domain can be recovered by using a numerical technique for inverting Laplace transforms.

Keywords: Axisymmetric elasticity, boundary element method, dual-reciprocity method, Laplace transform.

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Authors: Leili Esmaeilani, Jafar Ghaisari, Mohsen Ahmadian

Abstract:

Hammerstein–Wiener model is a block-oriented model where a linear dynamic system is surrounded by two static nonlinearities at its input and output and could be used to model various processes. This paper contains an optimization approach method for analysing the problem of Hammerstein–Wiener systems identification. The method relies on reformulate the identification problem; solve it as constraint quadratic problem and analysing its solutions. During the formulation of the problem, effects of adding noise to both input and output signals of nonlinear blocks and disturbance to linear block, in the emerged equations are discussed. Additionally, the possible parametric form of matrix operations to reduce the equation size is presented. To analyse the possible solutions to the mentioned system of equations, a method to reduce the difference between the number of equations and number of unknown variables by formulate and importing existing knowledge about nonlinear functions is presented. Obtained equations are applied to an instance H–W system to validate the results and illustrate the proposed method.

Keywords: Identification, Hammerstein-Wiener, optimization, quantization.

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Authors: Behrouz Mosayebi Dehkordi, Frazaneh Hashemi, Ramin Mostafazadeh

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Fick's second law equations for unsteady state diffusion of salt into the potato tissues were solved numerically. The set of equations resulted from implicit modeling were solved using Thomas method to find the salt concentration profiles in solid phase. The needed effective diffusivity and equilibrium distribution coefficient were determined experimentally. Cylindrical samples of potato were infused with aqueous NaCl solutions of 1-3% concentrations, and variations in salt concentrations of brine were determined over time. Solute concentrations profiles of samples were determined by measuring salt uptake of potato slices. For the studied conditions, equilibrium distribution coefficients were found to be dependent on salt concentrations, whereas the effective diffusivity was slightly affected by brine concentration.

Keywords: Brine, Diffusion, Diffusivity, Modeling, Potato

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Authors: Abdulali Ben Saleh, Mohamed Abudabbus

Abstract:

The present study based on removal of natural dyes of Roselle petals, then used Roselle petals powder (RPP) as an adsorbent for the removal of methylene blue dye (as a typical cationic or basic dye) from aqueous solutions. The present study shows that used Roselle petals powder exhibit adsorption trend for the dye. The adsorption processes were carried out at various conditions of temperatures ranging from 278 to 338 K ± 2 K , concentrations, processing time and a wide range of pH between 2.5-11. Adsorption isotherm equations such as Freundlich, and Langmuir were applied to calculate the values of respective constants. Adsorption study was found that the currently introduced adsorbent can be used to remove cationic dyes such as methylene blue from aqueous solutions.

Keywords: Adsorption, methylene blue, removal of dyes, Roselle petals powder.

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Authors: Mohamed Ouzzane, Mahmoud Bady

Abstract:

Due to energy and environment context, research is looking for the use of clean and energy efficient system in cooling industry. In this regard, the ejector represents one of the promising solutions. The thermal ejector is a passive component used for thermal compression in refrigeration and cooling systems, usually activated by heat either waste or solar. The present study introduces a theoretical analysis of the cooling system which uses a gas ejector thermal compression. A theoretical model is developed and applied for the design and simulation of the ejector, as well as the whole cooling system. Besides the conservation equations of mass, energy and momentum, the gas dynamic equations, state equations, isentropic relations as well as some appropriate assumptions are applied to simulate the flow and mixing in the ejector. This model coupled with the equations of the other components (condenser, evaporator, pump, and generator) is used to analyze profiles of pressure and velocity (Mach number), as well as evaluation of the cycle cooling capacity. A FORTRAN program is developed to carry out the investigation. Properties of refrigerant R134a are calculated using real gas equations. Among many parameters, it is thought that the generator pressure is the cornerstone in the cycle, and hence considered as the key parameter in this investigation. Results show that the generator pressure has a great effect on the ejector and on the whole cooling system. At high generator pressures, strong shock waves inside the ejector are created, which lead to significant condenser pressure at the ejector exit. Additionally, at higher generator pressures, the designed system can deliver cooling capacity for high condensing pressure (hot season).

Keywords: Air cooling system, refrigeration, thermal ejector, thermal compression.

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Authors: Rana Khalid Naeem, Waseem Ahmed Khan, Muhammad Akhtar, Asif Mansoor

Abstract:

The Navier Stokes Equations (NSE) for an incompressible fluid of variable viscosity in the presence of an unknown external force in Von-Mises system x,\ are transformed, and some new exact solutions for a class of flows characterized by equation y f x a\b for an arbitrary state equation are determined, where f x is a function, \ the stream function, a z 0 and b are the arbitrary constants. In three, out of four cases, the function f x is arbitrary, and the solutions are the solutions of the flow equations for all the flows characterized by the equationy f x a\b. Streamline patterns for some forms of f x in unbounded and bounded regions are given.

Keywords: Bounded and unbounded region, Exact solution, Navier Stokes equations, Streamline pattern, Variable viscosity, Von- Mises system

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, Aqil S. Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Quantile Regression, Fuzzy time series, fuzzy logicalrelationship groups, heuristic trend prediction.

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Authors: Worachat Wannawong, Usa W. HumphriesPrungchan Wongwises, Suphat Vongvisessomjai

Abstract:

The mathematical modeling of storm surge in sea and coastal regions such as the South China Sea (SCS) and the Gulf of Thailand (GoT) are important to study the typhoon characteristics. The storm surge causes an inundation at a lateral boundary exhibiting in the coastal zones particularly in the GoT and some part of the SCS. The model simulations in the three dimensional primitive equations with a high resolution model are important to protect local properties and human life from the typhoon surges. In the present study, the mathematical modeling is used to simulate the typhoon–induced surges in three case studies of Typhoon Linda 1997. The results of model simulations at the tide gauge stations can describe the characteristics of storm surges at the coastal zones.

Keywords: lateral boundary, mathematical modeling, numericalsimulations, three dimensional primitive equations, storm surge.

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Authors: Troy L. Story

Abstract:

Mathematical models of dynamics employing exterior calculus are mathematical representations of the same unifying principle; namely, the description of a dynamic system with a characteristic differential one-form on an odd-dimensional differentiable manifold leads, by analysis with exterior calculus, to a set of differential equations and a characteristic tangent vector (vortex vector) which define transformations of the system. Using this principle, a mathematical model for economic growth is constructed by proposing a characteristic differential one-form for economic growth dynamics (analogous to the action in Hamiltonian dynamics), then generating a pair of characteristic differential equations and solving these equations for the rate of economic growth as a function of labor and capital. By contracting the characteristic differential one-form with the vortex vector, the Lagrangian for economic growth dynamics is obtained.

Keywords: Differential geometry, exterior calculus, Hamiltonian geometry, mathematical economics.

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Authors: Amir Gandomkar, Tahereh Soltani Gord faramarzi, Parisa Safaripour Chafi, Abdol-Reza Amani

Abstract:

Temperature, humidity and precipitation in an area, are parameters proved influential in the climate of that area, and one should recognize them so that he can determine the climate of that area. Climate changes are of primary importance in climatology, and in recent years, have been of great concern to researchers and even politicians and organizations, for they can play an important role in social, political and economic activities. Even though the real cause of climate changes or their stability is not yet fully recognized, they are a matter of concern to researchers and their importance for countries has prompted them to investigate climate changes in different levels, especially in regional, national and continental level. This issue has less been investigated in our country. However, in recent years, there have been some researches and conferences on climate changes. This study is also in line with such researches and tries to investigate and analyze the trends of climate changes (temperature and precipitation) in Sefid-roud (the name of a river) basin. Three parameters of mean annual precipitation, temperature, and maximum and minimum temperatures in 36 synoptic and climatology stations in a statistical period of 49 years (1956-2005) in the stations of Sefid-roud basin were analyzed by Mann-Kendall test. The results obtained by data analysis show that climate changes are short term and have a trend. The analysis of mean temperature revealed that changes have a significantly rising trend, besides the precipitation has a significantly falling trend.

Keywords: Trend, Climate changes, Sefid-roud, Mann-Kendall

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Authors: Jiashang Jiang, Hao Liu, Yongxin Yuan

Abstract:

In this paper the gradient based iterative algorithms are presented to solve the following four types linear matrix equations: (a) AXB = F; (b) AXB = F, CXD = G; (c) AXB = F s. t. X = XT ; (d) AXB+CYD = F, where X and Y are unknown matrices, A,B,C,D, F,G are the given constant matrices. It is proved that if the equation considered has a solution, then the unique minimum norm solution can be obtained by choosing a special kind of initial matrices. The numerical results show that the proposed method is reliable and attractive.

Keywords: Matrix equation, iterative algorithm, parameter estimation, minimum norm solution.

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Authors: Orkide Donma, Mustafa M. Donma

Abstract:

Basal metabolic rate (BMR) is widely used and an accepted measure of energy expenditure. Its principal determinant is body mass. However, this parameter is also correlated with a variety of other factors. The objective of this study is to measure BMR and compare it with the values obtained from predictive equations in adults classified according to their body mass index (BMI) values. 276 adults were included into the scope of this study. Their age, height and weight values were recorded. Five groups were designed based on their BMI values. First group (n = 85) was composed of individuals with BMI values varying between 18.5 and 24.9 kg/m². Those with BMI values varying from 25.0 to 29.9 kg/m² constituted Group 2 (n = 90). Individuals with 30.0-34.9 kg/m², 35.0-39.9 kg/m², > 40.0 kg/m² were included in Group 3 (n = 53), 4 (n = 28) and 5 (n = 20), respectively. The most commonly used equations to be compared with the measured BMR values were selected. For this purpose, the values were calculated by the use of four equations to predict BMR values, by name, introduced by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)/World Health Organization (WHO)/United Nations University (UNU), Harris and Benedict, Owen and Mifflin. Descriptive statistics, ANOVA, post-Hoc Tukey and Pearson’s correlation tests were performed by a statistical program designed for Windows (SPSS, version 16.0). p values smaller than 0.05 were accepted as statistically significant. Mean ± SD of groups 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 for measured BMR in kcal were 1440.3 ± 210.0, 1618.8 ± 268.6, 1741.1 ± 345.2, 1853.1 ± 351.2 and 2028.0 ± 412.1, respectively. Upon evaluation of the comparison of means among groups, differences were highly significant between Group 1 and each of the remaining four groups. The values were increasing from Group 2 to Group 5. However, differences between Group 2 and Group 3, Group 3 and Group 4, Group 4 and Group 5 were not statistically significant. These insignificances were lost in predictive equations proposed by Harris and Benedict, FAO/WHO/UNU and Owen. For Mifflin, the insignificance was limited only to Group 4 and Group 5. Upon evaluation of the correlations of measured BMR and the estimated values computed from prediction equations, the lowest correlations between measured BMR and estimated BMR values were observed among the individuals within normal BMI range. The highest correlations were detected in individuals with BMI values varying between 30.0 and 34.9 kg/m². Correlations between measured BMR values and BMR values calculated by FAO/WHO/UNU as well as Owen were the same and the highest. In all groups, the highest correlations were observed between BMR values calculated from Mifflin and Harris and Benedict equations using age as an additional parameter. In conclusion, the unique resemblance of the FAO/WHO/UNU and Owen equations were pointed out. However, mean values obtained from FAO/WHO/UNU were much closer to the measured BMR values. Besides, the highest correlations were found between BMR calculated from FAO/WHO/UNU and measured BMR. These findings suggested that FAO/WHO/UNU was the most reliable equation, which may be used in conditions when the measured BMR values are not available.

Keywords: Adult, basal metabolic rate, FAO/WHO/UNU, obesity, prediction equations.

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Authors: Kamil Aida-zade, C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, some problem formulations of dynamic object parameters recovery described by non-autonomous system of ordinary differential equations with multipoint unshared edge conditions are investigated. Depending on the number of additional conditions the problem is reduced to an algebraic equations system or to a problem of quadratic programming. With this purpose the paper offers a new scheme of the edge conditions transfer method called by conditions shift. The method permits to get rid from differential links and multipoint unshared initially-edge conditions. The advantage of the proposed approach is concluded by capabilities of reduction of a parametric identification problem to essential simple problems of the solution of an algebraic system or quadratic programming.

Keywords: dynamic objects, ordinary differential equations, multipoint unshared edge conditions, quadratic programming, conditions shift

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Authors: Sachin Bhalekar

Abstract:

In this paper we propose a necessary condition for the existence of chaos in delay differential equations of fractional order. To explain the proposed theory, we discuss fractional order Liu system and financial system involving delay.

Keywords: Caputo derivative, delay, stability, chaos.

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Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

Abstract:

SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: Forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, SIR model.

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