Search results for: Statistical models and Timed automata

Authors: Khaoula Hidouri, Ali Benhmidene, Bechir Chouachi

Abstract:

The purification of brackish seawater becomes a necessity and not a choice against demographic and industrial growth especially in third world countries. Two models can be used in this work: simple solar still and simple solar still coupled with a heat pump. In this research, the productivity of water by Simple Solar Distiller (SSD) and Simple Solar Distiller Hybrid Heat Pump (SSDHP) was determined by the orientation, the use of heat pump, the simple or double glass cover. The productivity can exceed 1.2 L/m²h for the SSDHP and 0.5 L/m²h for SSD model. The result of the global efficiency is determined for two models SSD and SSDHP give respectively 30%, 50%. The internal efficiency attained 35% for SSD and 60% of the SSDHP models. Convective heat coefficient can be determined by attained 2.5 W/m²°C and 0.5 W/m²°C respectively for SSDHP and SSD models.

Keywords: Productivity, efficiency, convective heat coefficient, SSD model, SSDHP model.

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Authors: Hussein A. Kazem, Abdulhakeem Abdullah Albaloshi, Ali Said Ali Al-Jabri, Khamis Humaid AlSaidi

Abstract:

This paper proposes different methods for estimation of the harmonic currents of the single-phase diode bridge rectifier. Both simple and advanced methods are compared and the models are put into a context of practical use for calculating the harmonic distortion in a typical application. Finally, the different models are compared to measurements of a real application and convincing results are achieved.

Keywords: Single-phase rectifier, line side Harmonics

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Authors: M. Giannopoulou, I. Roukounis, A. Roukouni.

Abstract:

Geographical Information Systems are an integral part of planning in modern technical systems. Nowadays referred to as Spatial Decision Support Systems, as they allow synergy database management systems and models within a single user interface machine and they are important tools in spatial design for evaluating policies and programs at all levels of administration. This work refers to the creation of a Geographical Information System in the context of a broader research in the area of influence of an under construction station of the new metro in the Greek city of Thessaloniki, which included statistical and multivariate data analysis and diagrammatic representation, mapping and interpretation of the results.

Keywords: Databases, Geographical information systems (GIS), Land-use planning, Metro stations

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Authors: Karim Heidari

Abstract:

Semantic Web Technologies enable machines to interpret data published in a machine-interpretable form on the web. At the present time, only human beings are able to understand the product information published online. The emerging semantic Web technologies have the potential to deeply influence the further development of the Internet Economy. In this paper we propose a scenario based research approach to predict the effects of these new technologies on electronic markets and business models of traders and intermediaries and customers. Over 300 million searches are conducted everyday on the Internet by people trying to find what they need. A majority of these searches are in the domain of consumer ecommerce, where a web user is looking for something to buy. This represents a huge cost in terms of people hours and an enormous drain of resources. Agent enabled semantic search will have a dramatic impact on the precision of these searches. It will reduce and possibly eliminate information asymmetry where a better informed buyer gets the best value. By impacting this key determinant of market prices semantic web will foster the evolution of different business and economic models. We submit that there is a need for developing these futuristic models based on our current understanding of e-commerce models and nascent semantic web technologies. We believe these business models will encourage mainstream web developers and businesses to join the “semantic web revolution."

Keywords: E-Commerce, E-Business, Semantic Web, XML.

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Authors: Jing Zhang, Jie Chen

Abstract:

In this paper, we mainly analyze an automated parking system where the storage and retrieval requests are performed by a tower crane. In this parking system, the S/R crane which is located at the middle of the bottom of the cylinder parking area can rotate in both clockwise and counterclockwise and three kinds of movements can be done simultaneously. We develop some mathematical travel time models for the single command cycle under the random storage assignment using the characteristics of this system. Finally, we compare these travel models with discrete case and it is shown that these travel models display a good satisfactory performance.

Keywords: Parking system, travel time model, tower crane.

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Authors: H. W. Ker

Abstract:

Longitudinal data typically have the characteristics of changes over time, nonlinear growth patterns, between-subjects variability, and the within errors exhibiting heteroscedasticity and dependence. The data exploration is more complicated than that of cross-sectional data. The purpose of this paper is to organize/integrate of various visual-graphical techniques to explore longitudinal data. From the application of the proposed methods, investigators can answer the research questions include characterizing or describing the growth patterns at both group and individual level, identifying the time points where important changes occur and unusual subjects, selecting suitable statistical models, and suggesting possible within-error variance.

Keywords: Data exploration, exploratory analysis, HLMs/LMEs, longitudinal data, visual-graphical methods.

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Authors: Eugene Kindler

Abstract:

The present paper is oriented to problems of simulation of anticipatory systems, namely those that use simulation models for the aid of anticipation. A certain analogy between use of simulation and imagining will be applied to make the explication more comprehensible. The paper will be completed by notes of problems and by some existing applications. The problems consist in the fact that simulation of the mentioned anticipatory systems end is simulation of simulating systems, i.e. in computer models handling two or more modeled time axes that should be mapped to real time flow in a nondescent manner. Languages oriented to objects, processes and blocks can be used to surmount the problems.

Keywords: Anticipatory systems, Nested computer models, Discrete event simulation, Simula.

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Authors: Oseni Taiwo Amoo, Bloodless Dzwairo

Abstract:

In this paper, we extend the versatility and usefulness of GIS as a methodology for any river basin hydrologic characteristics analysis (HCA). The Gurara River basin located in North-Central Nigeria is presented in this study. It is an on-going research using spatial Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and Arc-Hydro tools to take inventory of the basin characteristics in order to predict water abstraction quantification on streamflow regime. One of the main concerns of hydrological modelling is the quantification of runoff from rainstorm events. In practice, the soil conservation service curve (SCS) method and the Conventional procedure called rational technique are still generally used these traditional hydrological lumped models convert statistical properties of rainfall in river basin to observed runoff and hydrograph. However, the models give little or no information about spatially dispersed information on rainfall and basin physical characteristics. Therefore, this paper synthesizes morphometric parameters in generating runoff. The expected results of the basin characteristics such as size, area, shape, slope of the watershed and stream distribution network analysis could be useful in estimating streamflow discharge. Water resources managers and irrigation farmers could utilize the tool for determining net return from available scarce water resources, where past data records are sparse for the aspect of land and climate.

Keywords: Hydrological characteristic, land and climate, runoff discharge, streamflow.

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Authors: Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović, Blanka Škrabić

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The paper provides a discussion of the most relevant aspects of yield curve modeling. Two classes of models are considered: stochastic and parsimonious function based, through the approaches developed by Vasicek (1977) and Nelson and Siegel (1987). Yield curve estimates for Croatia are presented and their dynamics analyzed and finally, a comparative analysis of models is conducted.

Keywords: the term structure of interest rates, Vasicek model, Nelson-Siegel model, Croatian Government market.

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Authors: Pinho C., Madaleno M.

Abstract:

German electricity European options on futures using Lévy processes for the underlying asset are examined. Implied volatility evolution, under each of the considered models, is discussed after calibrating for the Merton jump diffusion (MJD), variance gamma (VG), normal inverse Gaussian (NIG), Carr, Geman, Madan and Yor (CGMY) and the Black and Scholes (B&S) model. Implied volatility is examined for the entire sample period, revealing some curious features about market evolution, where data fitting performances of the five models are compared. It is shown that variance gamma processes provide relatively better results and that implied volatility shows significant differences through time, having increasingly evolved. Volatility changes for changed uncertainty, or else, increasing futures prices and there is evidence for the need to account for seasonality when modelling both electricity spot/futures prices and volatility.

Keywords: Calibration, Electricity Markets, Implied Volatility, Lévy Models, Options on Futures, Pricing

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Authors: Farrokh J., Azhar K. Mansur

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There exists a strong correlation between efficient project management and competitive advantage for organizations. Therefore, organizations are striving to standardize and assess the rigor of their project management processes and capabilities i.e. project management maturity. Researchers and standardization organizations have developed several project management maturity models (PMMMs) to assess project management maturity of the organizations. This study presents a critical evaluation of some of the leading PMMMs against OPM3® in a multitude of ways to look at which PMMM is the most comprehensive model - which could assess most aspects of organizations and also help the organizations in gaining competitive advantage over competitors. After a detailed morphological analysis of the models, it is concluded that OPM3® is the most promising maturity model that can really provide a competitive advantage to the organizations due to its unique approach of assessment and improvement strategies.

Keywords: Project management maturity, project managemen tmaturity models, competitive advantage.

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Authors: P. Bountris, E. Farantatos, N. Apostolou

Abstract:

Autofluorescence (AF) bronchoscopy is an established method to detect dysplasia and carcinoma in situ (CIS). For this reason the “Sotiria" Hospital uses the Karl Storz D-light system. However, in early tumor stages the visualization is not that obvious. With the help of a PC, we analyzed the color images we captured by developing certain tools in Matlab®. We used statistical methods based on texture analysis, signal processing methods based on Gabor models and conversion algorithms between devicedependent color spaces. Our belief is that we reduced the error made by the naked eye. The tools we implemented improve the quality of patients' life.

Keywords: Bronchoscopy, digital image processing, lung cancer, texture analysis.

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Authors: Afshin Ahmadi Nadooshan, Ebrahim Shirani

Abstract:

In this paper, the two-dimensional stagger grid interface pressure (SGIP) model has been generalized and presented into three-dimensional form. For this purpose, various models of surface tension force for interfacial flows have been investigated and compared with each other. The VOF method has been used for tracking the interface. To show the ability of the SGIP model for three-dimensional flows in comparison with other models, pressure contours, maximum spurious velocities, norm spurious flow velocities and pressure jump error for motionless drop of liquid and bubble of gas are calculated using different models. It has been pointed out that SGIP model in comparison with the CSF, CSS and PCIL models produces the least maximum and norm spurious velocities. Additionally, the new model produces more accurate results in calculating the pressure jumps across the interface for motionless drop of liquid and bubble of gas which is generated in surface tension force.

Keywords: Volume-of-Fluid; SGIP model; CSS model; CSF model; PCIL model; surface tension force; spurious currents.

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Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Porush Bassi, Amanpreet Singh Brar

Abstract:

Various models have been derived by studying large number of completed software projects from various organizations and applications to explore how project sizes mapped into project effort. But, still there is a need to prediction accuracy of the models. As Neuro-fuzzy based system is able to approximate the non-linear function with more precision. So, Neuro-Fuzzy system is used as a soft computing approach to generate model by formulating the relationship based on its training. In this paper, Neuro-Fuzzy technique is used for software estimation modeling of on NASA software project data and performance of the developed models are compared with the Halstead, Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili and Doty Models mentioned in the literature.

Keywords: Effort Estimation, Neural-Fuzzy Model, Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model.

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Authors: Cherryl Lowe

Abstract:

Background - The TrendCare Patient Dependency System is currently used by a large number of maternity Services across Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. In 2012, 2013 and 2014 validation studies were initiated in all three countries to validate the acuity tools used for women in labour, and postnatal mothers and babies. This paper will present the findings of the validation study. Aim - The aim of this study was to; identify if the care hours provided by the TrendCare acuity system was an accurate reflection of the care required by women and babies; obtain evidence of changes required to acuity indicators and/or category timings to ensure the TrendCare acuity system remains reliable and valid across a range of maternity care models in three countries. Method - A non-experimental action research methodology was used across maternity services in four District Health Boards in New Zealand, a large tertiary and a large secondary maternity service in Singapore and a large public maternity service in Australia. Standardised data collection forms and timing devices were used to collect midwife contact times, with women and babies included in the study. Rejection processes excluded samples when care was not completed/rationed, and contact timing forms were incomplete. The variances between actual timed midwife/mother/baby contact and the TrendCare acuity category times were identified and investigated. Results - Thirty two (88.9%) of the 36 TrendCare acuity category timings, fell within the variance tolerance levels when compared to the actual timings recorded for midwifery care. Four (11.1%) TrendCare categories provided less minutes of care than the actual timings and exceeded the variance tolerance level. These were all night shift category timings. Nine postnatal categories were not able to be compared as the sample size for these categories was statistically insignificant. 100% of labour ward TrendCare categories matched actual timings for midwifery care, all falling within the variance tolerance levels. The actual time provided by core midwifery staff to assist lead maternity carer (LMC) midwives in New Zealand labour wards showed a significant deviation to previous studies. The findings of the study demonstrated the need for additional time allocations in TrendCare to accommodate an increased level of assistance given to LMC midwives. Conclusion - The results demonstrated the importance of regularly validating the TrendCare category timings with actual timings of the care hours provided. It was evident from the findings that variances to models of care and length of stay in maternity units have increased midwifery workloads on the night shift. The level of assistance provided by the core labour ward staff to the LMC midwife has increased substantially. Outcomes - As a consequence of this study, changes were made to the night duty TrendCare maternity categories, additional acuity indicators were developed and times for assisting LMC midwives in labour ward increased. The updated TrendCare version was delivered to maternity services in 2014.

Keywords: Maternity, acuity, midwifery research, midwifery workloads.

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Authors: A. Bocevska, G. Todorov, T. Neshkov

Abstract:

New developed approach for Functional Cost Analysis (FCA) based on virtual prototyping (VP) models in CAD/CAE environment, applicable and necessary in developing new products is presented. It is instrument for improving the value of the product while maintaining costs and/or reducing the costs of the product without reducing value. Five broad classes of VP methods are identified. Efficient use of prototypes in FCA is a vital activity that can make the difference between successful and unsuccessful entry of new products into the competitive word market. Successful realization of this approach is illustrated for a specific example using press joint power tool.

Keywords: CAD/CAE environment, Functional Cost Analysis (FCA), Virtual prototyping (VP) models.

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Authors: Ehsan Ghanaei, Feridun Esmaeilzadeh, Jamshid Fathi Kaljahi

Abstract:

In the previous multi-solid models,¤ò approach is used for the calculation of fugacity in the liquid phase. For the first time, in the proposed multi-solid thermodynamic model,γ approach has been used for calculation of fugacity in the liquid mixture. Therefore, some activity coefficient models have been studied that the results show that the predictive Wilson model is more appropriate than others. The results demonstrate γ approach using the predictive Wilson model is in more agreement with experimental data than the previous multi-solid models. Also, by this method, generates a new approach for presenting stability analysis in phase equilibrium calculations. Meanwhile, the run time in γ approach is less than the previous methods used ¤ò approach. The results of the new model present 0.75 AAD % (Average Absolute Deviation) from the experimental data which is less than the results error of the previous multi-solid models obviously.

Keywords: Multi-solid thermodynamic model, PredictiveWilson model, Wax formation.

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Authors: D. Kreutzer, S. Müller-Abdelrazeq, I. Isenhardt

Abstract:

Resource scarcity, energy transition and the planned climate neutrality pose enormous challenges for manufacturing companies. In order to achieve these goals and a holistic sustainable development, the European Union has listed the circular economy as part of the Circular Economy Action Plan. In addition to a reduction in resource consumption, reduced emissions of greenhouse gases and a reduced volume of waste, the principles of the circular economy also offer enormous economic potential for companies, such as the generation of new circular business models. However, many manufacturing companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, do not have the necessary capacity to plan their transformation. They need support and strategies on the path to circular transformation because this change affects not only production but also the entire company. Maturity models offer an approach to determine the current status of companies’ transformation processes. In addition, companies can use the models to identify transformation strategies and thus promote the transformation process. While maturity models are established in other areas, e.g., IT or project management, only a few circular economy maturity models can be found in the scientific literature. The aim of this paper is to analyze the identified maturity models of the circular economy through a systematic literature review (SLR) and, besides other aspects, to check their completeness as well as their quality. For this purpose, circular economy maturity models at the company's (micro) level were identified from the literature, compared, and analyzed with regard to their theoretical and methodological structure. A specific focus was placed, on the one hand, on the analysis of the business units considered in the respective models and, on the other hand, on the underlying metrics and indicators in order to determine the individual maturity level of the entire company. The results of the literature review show, for instance, a significant difference in the number and types of indicators as well as their metrics. For example, most models use subjective indicators and very few objective indicators in their surveys. It was also found that there are rarely well-founded thresholds between the levels. Based on the generated results, concrete ideas and proposals for a research agenda in the field of circular economy maturity models are made.

Keywords: Circular economy, maturity model, maturity assessment, systematic literature review.

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Authors: M. Yosofi, S. Ezeddini, A. Ollivier, V. Lavaste, C. Mayousse

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Additive manufacturing processes have changed significantly in a wide range of industries and their application progressed from rapid prototyping to production of end-use products. However, their environmental impact is still a rather open question. In order to support the growth of this technology in the industrial sector, environmental aspects should be considered and predictive models may help monitor and reduce the environmental footprint of the processes. This work presents predictive models based on a previously developed methodology for the environmental impact evaluation combined with a technical and economical assessment. Here we applied the methodology to the Fused Deposition Modeling process. First, we present the predictive models relative to different types of machines. Then, we present a decision-making tool designed to identify the optimum manufacturing strategy regarding technical, economic, and environmental criteria.

Keywords: Additive manufacturing, decision-makings, environmental impact, predictive models.

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Authors: Petr Seďa

Abstract:

This paper deals with heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility (HAR-RV models) on high-frequency data of stock indices in the USA. Its aim is to capture the behavior of three groups of market participants trading on a daily, weekly and monthly basis and assess their role in predicting the daily realized volatility. The benefits of this work lies mainly in the application of heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility on stock indices in the USA with a special aim to analyze an impact of the global financial crisis on applied models forecasting performance. We use three data sets, the first one from the period before the global financial crisis occurred in the years 2006-2007, the second one from the period when the global financial crisis fully hit the U.S. financial market in 2008-2009 years, and the last period was defined over 2010-2011 years. The model output indicates that estimated realized volatility in the market is very much determined by daily traders and in some cases excludes the impact of those market participants who trade on monthly basis.

Keywords: Global financial crisis, heterogeneous autoregressive model, in-sample forecast, realized volatility, U.S. stock market.

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Authors: Chen Wu, Youquan Xu, Dandan Li, Ronghua Yang, Lijuan Wang

Abstract:

In rough set models, tolerance relation, similarity relation and limited tolerance relation solve different situation problems for incomplete information systems in which there exists a phenomenon of missing value. If two objects have the same few known attributes and more unknown attributes, they cannot distinguish them well. In order to solve this problem, we presented two improved limited and variable precision rough set models. One is symmetric, the other one is non-symmetric. They all use more stringent condition to separate two small probability equivalent objects into different classes. The two models are needed to engage further study in detail. In the present paper, we newly form object classes with a different respect comparing to the first suggested model. We overcome disadvantages of non-symmetry regarding to the second suggested model. We discuss relationships between or among several models and also make rule generation. The obtained results by applying the second model are more accurate and reasonable.

Keywords: Incomplete information system, rough set, symmetry, variable precision.

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Authors: Katalina Grigorova, Kaloyan Mironov

Abstract:

The paper focuses on the benefits of business process modeling. Although this discipline is developing for many years, there is still necessity of creating new opportunities to meet the ever increasing users’ needs. Because one of these needs is related to the conversion of business process models from one standard to another, the authors have developed a converter between BPMN and EPC standards using workflow patterns as intermediate tool. Nowadays there are too many systems for business process modeling. The variety of output formats is almost the same as the systems themselves. This diversity additionally hampers the conversion of the models. The presented study is aimed at discussing problems due to differences in the output formats of various modeling environments.

Keywords: Business process modeling, business process modeling standards, workflow patterns, converting models.

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Authors: Nino Abesadze, Marine Mindorashvili, Nino Paresashvili

Abstract:

The main purpose of the article is to make complex statistical analysis of tourist expenses of foreign visitors. We used mixed technique of selection that implies rules of random and proportional selection. Computer software SPSS was used to compute statistical data for corresponding analysis. Corresponding methodology of tourism statistics was implemented according to international standards. Important information was collected and grouped from the major Georgian airports. Techniques of statistical observation were prepared. A representative population of foreign visitors and a rule of selection of respondents were determined. We have a trend of growth of tourist numbers and share of tourists from post-soviet countries constantly increases. Level of satisfaction with tourist facilities and quality of service has grown, but still we have a problem of disparity between quality of service and prices. The design of tourist expenses of foreign visitors is diverse; competitiveness of tourist products of Georgian tourist companies is higher.

Keywords: Tourist, expenses, methods, statistics, analysis.

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Authors: Md. Z. Alam, Devi R. Asih, Md. N. Salleh

Abstract:

Immobilization of lipase enzyme produced from palm oil mill effluent (POME) by the activated carbon (AC) among the low cost support materials was optimized. The results indicated that immobilization of 94% was achieved by AC as the most suitable support material. A sequential optimization strategy based on a statistical experimental design, including one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) method was used to determine the equilibrium time. Three components influencing lipase immobilization were optimized by the response surface methodology (RSM) based on the face-centered central composite design (FCCCD). On the statistical analysis of the results, the optimum enzyme concentration loading, agitation rate and carbon active dosage were found to be 30 U/ml, 300 rpm and 8 g/L respectively, with a maximum immobilization activity of 3732.9 U/g-AC after 2 hrs of immobilization. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed a high regression coefficient (R²) of 0.999, which indicated a satisfactory fit of the model with the experimental data. The parameters were statistically significant at p<0.05.

Keywords: Activated carbon, adsorption, immobilization, POME based lipase.

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Authors: Widad Jakjoud, Mohamed Bahaj, Jamal Bakkas

Abstract:

Through this paper we present a method for automatic generation of ontological model from any data source using Model Driven Architecture (MDA), this generation is dedicated to the cooperation of the knowledge engineering and software engineering. Indeed, reverse engineering of a data source generates a software model (schema of data) that will undergo transformations to generate the ontological model. This method uses the meta-models to validate software and ontological models.

Keywords: Meta model, model, ontology, data source.

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Authors: M. Rahmati, S.M. Mirzababaei

Abstract:

With the advance of information technology in the new era the applications of Internet to access data resources has steadily increased and huge amount of data have become accessible in various forms. Obviously, the network providers and agencies, look after to prevent electronic attacks that may be harmful or may be related to terrorist applications. Thus, these have facilitated the authorities to under take a variety of methods to protect the special regions from harmful data. One of the most important approaches is to use firewall in the network facilities. The main objectives of firewalls are to stop the transfer of suspicious packets in several ways. However because of its blind packet stopping, high process power requirements and expensive prices some of the providers are reluctant to use the firewall. In this paper we proposed a method to find a discriminate function to distinguish between usual packets and harmful ones by the statistical processing on the network router logs. By discriminating these data, an administrator may take an approach action against the user. This method is very fast and can be used simply in adjacent with the Internet routers.

Keywords: Data Mining, Firewall, Optimization, Packetclassification, Statistical Pattern Recognition.

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

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In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: Fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity.

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Authors: Shuguo Yang, Xiaoyan Yang

Abstract:

It is practically significant to research the traffic flow of intersection because the capacity of intersection affects the efficiency of highway network directly. This paper analyzes the traffic conditions of an intersection in certain urban by the methods of queuing theory and statistical experiment, sets up a corresponding mathematical model and compares it with the actual values. The result shows that queuing theory is applied in the study of intersection traffic flow and it can provide references for the other similar designs.

Keywords: Intersection, Queuing theory, Statistical experiment, System metrics.

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Authors: Marcel Chevalier, Léo Dupont, Sylvain Marié, Frédérique Roffet, Elena Stolyarova, William Templier, Costin Vasile

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Industrial end users are currently facing an increasing need to reduce the risk of unexpected failures and optimize their maintenance. This calls for both short-term analysis and long-term ageing anticipation. At Schneider Electric, we tackle those two issues using both Machine Learning and First Principles models. Machine learning models are incrementally trained from normal data to predict expected values and detect statistically significant short-term deviations. Ageing models are constructed from breaking down physical systems into sub-assemblies, then determining relevant degradation modes and associating each one to the right kinetic law. Validating such anomaly detection and maintenance models is challenging, both because actual incident and ageing data are rare and distorted by human interventions, and incremental learning depends on human feedback. To overcome these difficulties, we propose to simulate physics, systems and humans – including asset maintenance operations – in order to validate the overall approaches in accelerated time and possibly choose between algorithmic alternatives.

Keywords: Degradation models, ageing, anomaly detection, soft sensor, incremental learning.

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Authors: M. K. Pradhan, C. K. Biswas,

Abstract:

In the current research, neuro-fuzzy model and regression model was developed to predict Material Removal Rate in Electrical Discharge Machining process for AISI D2 tool steel with copper electrode. Extensive experiments were conducted with various levels of discharge current, pulse duration and duty cycle. The experimental data are split into two sets, one for training and the other for validation of the model. The training data were used to develop the above models and the test data, which was not used earlier to develop these models were used for validation the models. Subsequently, the models are compared. It was found that the predicted and experimental results were in good agreement and the coefficients of correlation were found to be 0.999 and 0.974 for neuro fuzzy and regression model respectively

Keywords: Electrical discharge machining, material removal rate, neuro-fuzzy model, regression model, mountain clustering.

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