Search results for: Risk Communication

Authors: Aliaksei Patsekha, Michael Hohenberger, Harald Raupenstrauch

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An effective emergency response to accidents with chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, or explosive materials (CBRNE) that represent highly dynamic situations needs immediate actions within limited time, information and resources. The aim of the study is to provide the foundation for division of unsafe area into risk zones according to the impact of hazardous parameters (heat radiation, thermal dose, overpressure, chemical concentrations). A decision on the boundary values for three risk zones is based on the vulnerability analysis that covered a variety of accident scenarios containing the release of a toxic or flammable substance which either evaporates, ignites and/or explodes. Critical values are selected for the boundary definition of the Red, Orange and Yellow risk zones upon the examination of harmful effects that are likely to cause injuries of varying severity to people and different levels of damage to structures. The obtained results provide the basis for creating a comprehensive real-time risk map for a decision support at CBRNE operations.

Keywords: Boundary values, CBRNE threats, decision making process, hazardous effects, vulnerability analysis, risk zones.

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Authors: A. Fathianpour, M. B. Jelodar, S. Wilkinson

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This paper outlines the approaches taken to assess multi-hazard assessments. There is currently confusion in assessing multi-hazard impacts, and so this study aims to determine which of the available options are the most useful. The paper uses an international literature search, and analysis of current multi-hazard assessments and a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the chosen method. Findings from this study will help those wanting to assess multi-hazards to undertake a straightforward approach. The paper is significant as it helps to interpret the various approaches and concludes with the preferred method. Many people in the world live in hazardous environments and are susceptible to disasters. Unfortunately, when a disaster strikes it is often compounded by additional cascading hazards, thus people would confront more than one hazard simultaneously. Hazards include natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, etc.) or cascading human-made hazards (for example, Natural Hazard Triggering Technological disasters (Natech) such as fire, explosion, toxic release). Multi-hazards have a more destructive impact on urban areas than one hazard alone. In addition, climate change is creating links between different disasters such as causing landslide dams and debris flows leading to more destructive incidents. Much of the prevailing literature deals with only one hazard at a time. However, recently sophisticated multi-hazard assessments have started to appear. Given that multi-hazards occur, it is essential to take multi-hazard risk assessment under consideration. This paper aims to review the multi-hazard assessment methods through articles published to date and categorize the strengths and disadvantages of using these methods in risk assessment. Napier City is selected as a case study to demonstrate the necessity of using multi-hazard risk assessments. In order to assess multi-hazard risk assessments, first, the current multi-hazard risk assessment methods were described. Next, the drawbacks of these multi-hazard risk assessments were outlined. Finally, the improvements to current multi-hazard risk assessments to date were summarised. Generally, the main problem of multi-hazard risk assessment is to make a valid assumption of risk from the interactions of different hazards. Currently, risk assessment studies have started to assess multi-hazard situations, but drawbacks such as uncertainty and lack of data show the necessity for more precise risk assessment. It should be noted that ignoring or partial considering multi-hazards in risk assessment will lead to an overestimate or overlook in resilient and recovery action managements.

Keywords: Cascading hazards, multi-hazard, risk assessment, risk reduction.

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Authors: E. Podhovnik

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Cultures play a role in business communication and in research. At the example of language in international business, this paper addresses the issue of how the research cultures of management research and linguistics as well as cultures as such can be linked. After looking at existing research on language in international business, this paper approaches communication in international business from a linguistic angle and attempts to explain communication issues in businesses based on linguistic research. Thus the paper makes a step into cross-disciplinary research combining management research with linguistics.

Keywords: Language in international business, sociolinguistics, ethnopragmatics, cultural scripts.

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Authors: Yong-Hui Li, Jing-Wen Huang

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As the advancement of technology, online shopping channel develops rapidly in recent years. According to the report of Taiwan Network Information Center, there are almost eighty percents of internet population shopping in online channel. Synthesizing insights from the previous research, this study develops the conceptual model to integrate Theory of Perceived Risk (TPR) and Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to apply in online shopping. Using data collected from 637 respondents from online survey website, we use structural equation modeling to test measurement and structural models. The results suggest the need for consideration of perceived risk as an antecedent in the Technology Acceptance Model. The limitations and implications are discussed.

Keywords: perceived risk, perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, behavioral intention, actual purchase behavior

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Authors: D. Moser, D. Pinto, A. Cipriano

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A Disaster Management System (DMS) is very important for countries with multiple disasters, such as Chile. In the world (also in Chile)different disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruption, fire or other natural or man-made disasters) happen and have an effect on the population. It is also possible that two or more disasters occur at the same time. This meansthata multi-risk situation must be mastered. To handle such a situation a Decision Support System (DSS) based on multiagents is a suitable architecture. The most known DMSs are concernedwith only a singledisaster (sometimes thecombination of earthquake and tsunami) and often with a particular disaster. Nevertheless, a DSS helps for a better real-time response. Analyze the existing systems in the literature and expand them for multi-risk disasters to construct a well-organized system is the proposal of our work. The here shown work is an approach of a multi-risk system, which needs an architecture and well defined aims. In this moment our study is a kind of case study to analyze the way we have to follow to create our proposed system in the future.

Keywords: Decision Support System, Disaster Management System, Multi-Risk, Multiagent System.

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Authors: Cristina G. Dascalu, Elena Mihaela Carausu, Daniela Manuc

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The medical studies often require different methods for parameters selection, as a second step of processing, after the database-s designing and filling with information. One common task is the selection of fields that act as risk factors using wellknown methods, in order to find the most relevant risk factors and to establish a possible hierarchy between them. Different methods are available in this purpose, one of the most known being the binary logistic regression. We will present the mathematical principles of this method and a practical example of using it in the analysis of the influence of 10 different psychiatric diagnostics over 4 different types of offences (in a database made from 289 psychiatric patients involved in different types of offences). Finally, we will make some observations about the relation between the risk factors hierarchy established through binary logistic regression and the individual risks, as well as the results of Chi-squared test. We will show that the hierarchy built using the binary logistic regression doesn-t agree with the direct order of risk factors, even if it was naturally to assume this hypothesis as being always true.

Keywords: Databases, risk factors, binary logisticregression, hierarchy.

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Authors: M. Marsadek, A. Mohamed

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Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed.  In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time.  To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor.  The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.

Keywords: Line overload, low voltage, probability, risk factor, severity.

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Authors: Jiri Barta, Jiri F. Urbanek

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This paper deals with a protection of the national and European infrastructure. It is issue nowadays. The paper deals with the perspectives and possibilities of "smart solutions" to critical infrastructure protection. The research project deals with computers aided technologies are used from the perspective of new, better protection of selected infrastructure objects. Protection is focused on communication and information channels. These communication and information channels are very important for the functioning of the system of protection of critical infrastructure elements.

Keywords: Interoperability, Communication systems, Controlling Process, Critical Infrastructure, Crisis Workplaces. Continuity.

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Authors: M. Kargar, R. Mirmiran, F. Fartash, T. Saderi

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In this paper a new method is suggested for risk management by the numerical patterns in data-mining. These patterns are designed using probability rules in decision trees and are cared to be valid, novel, useful and understandable. Considering a set of functions, the system reaches to a good pattern or better objectives. The patterns are analyzed through the produced matrices and some results are pointed out. By using the suggested method the direction of the functionality route in the systems can be controlled and best planning for special objectives be done.

Keywords: Analysis, Data-mining, Pattern, Risk Management.

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Authors: S. A. Nta

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The study assessed the levels of some heavy metals in the contaminated soil from a point source using pollution indices to measure the extent of pollution. The soil used was sandy-loam in texture. The contaminant used was landfill leachate, introduced as a point source through an entry point positioned at the center of top layer of the soil tank. Samples were collected after 50 days and analyzed for heavy metal (Zn, Ni, Cu and Cd) using standard methods. The mean concentration of Ni ranged from 5.55-2.65 mg/kg, Zn 3.67-0.85 mg/kg, Cu 1.60-0.93 mg/kg and Cd 1.60-0.15 mg/kg. The richness of metals was in decreasing order: Ni > Zn > Cu > Cd. The metals concentration was found to be maximum at 0.25 m radial distance from the point of leachate application. The geo-accumulation index (Igeo) studied revealed that all the metals recovered at 0.25 and 0.50 m radial distance and at 0.15, 0.30, 0.45 and 0.60 m depth from the point of application of leachate fall under unpolluted to moderately polluted range. Ecological risk assessment showed high ecological risk index with values higher than RI > 300. The RI shows that the ecological risk in this study was mostly contributed by Cd ranging from 9-96.

Keywords: Ecological risk, assessment, heavy metals, test soils, landfill leachate.

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Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

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Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: Cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

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Authors: Douangmala Kounsana, Toru Takahashi

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In recent years, the number of natural disasters in Laos has a trend to increase, especially the disaster of flood. To make a flood plan risk management in the future, it is necessary to understand and analyze the characteristics of the rainfall and Mekong River level data. To reduce the damage, this paper presents the flood risk analysis in Luangprabang and Vientiane, the prefecture of Laos. In detail, the relationship between the rainfall and the Mekong River level has evaluated and appropriate countermeasure for flood was discussed.

Keywords: Lao flood, Mekong river, rainfall, risk management.

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Authors: Swathi Sampath, V. Kalaichelvi

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The assessment of the risk posed by a borrower to a lender is one of the common problems that financial institutions have to deal with. Consumers vying for a mortgage are generally compared to each other by the use of a number called the Credit Score, which is generated by applying a mathematical algorithm to information in the applicant’s credit report. The higher the credit score, the lower the risk posed by the candidate, and the better he is to be taken on by the lender. The objective of the present work is to use fuzzy logic and linguistic rules to create a model that generates Credit Scores.

Keywords: Credit scoring, fuzzy logic, mortgage, risk assessment.

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Authors: Hasnida Abdul Wahab, Shahrina Md Nordin, Lai Fong Woon, Hasrina Mustafa

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There has been a growing emphasis in communication management from simple coordination of promotional tools to a complex strategic process. This study will examine the current marketing communications and engagement strategies used in addressing the key stakeholders. In the case of fertilizer industry in Malaysia, there has been little empirical research on stakeholder communication when major challenges facing the modern corporation is the need to communicate its identity, its values and products in order to distinguish itself from competitors. The study will employ both quantitative and qualitative methods and the use of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to establish a causal relationship amongst the key factors of stakeholder communication strategies and increment in consumers- choice/acceptance and impact on financial performance. One of the major contributions is a conceptual framework for communication strategies and engagement in increasing consumers- acceptance level and the firm-s financial performance.

Keywords: Consumers' acceptance, financial performance, stakeholder communication strategies.

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Authors: L. McAllister, A. Dudau

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This paper explores gender related barriers to interagency collaboration in statutory children safeguard partnerships against a theoretical framework that considers individuals, professions and organisations interacting as part of a complex adaptive system. We argue that gender-framed obstacles to effective communication between culturally discrepant agencies can ultimately impact on the effectiveness of policy delivery,. We focused our research on three partnership structures in Sefton Metropolitan Borough in order to observe how interactions occur, whether the agencies involved perceive their occupational environment as being gender affected and whether they believe this can hinder effective collaboration with other biased organisations. Our principal empirical findings indicate that there is a general awareness amongst professionals of the role that gender plays in each of the agencies reviewed, that gender may well constitute a barrier to effective communication, but there is a sense in which there is little scope for change in the short term. We aim to signal here, however, the need to change against the risk of service failure.

Keywords: Children's safeguard, gender, gendered professions, inter-agency collaboration, partnerships.

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

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Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).

Keywords: Control, human factor, optimization, risk management, uncertainty.

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Authors: Sareh Rajabi, Salwa Bheiry

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In general, Covid-19 created many financial and non-financial damages to the economy and community. Level and severity of covid-19 as pandemic case varies over the region and due to different types of the projects. Covid-19 virus emerged as one of the most imperative risk management factors word-wide recently. Therefore, as part of portfolio management assessment, it is essential to evaluate severity of such risk on the project and program in portfolio management level to avoid any risky portfolio. Covid-19 appeared very effectively in South America, part of Europe and Middle East. Such pandemic infection affected the whole universe, due to lock down, interruption in supply chain management, health and safety requirements, transportations and commercial impacts. Therefore, this research proposes Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to analyze and assess such pandemic case like Covid-19 and its impacts on the construction projects. The AHP technique uses four sub-criteria: Health and safety, commercial risk, completion risk and contractual risk to evaluate the project and program. The result will provide the decision makers with information which project has higher or lower risk in case of Covid-19 and pandemic scenario. Therefore, the decision makers can have most feasible solution based on effective weighted criteria for project selection within their portfolio to match with the organization’s strategies.

Keywords: Portfolio management, risk management, COVID-19, analytical hierarchy process technique.

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Authors: Emmy Pratiwi, Ketut B. Artana, A. A. B. Dinariyana

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Madura Strait is considered as one of the busiest shipping channels in Indonesia. High vessel traffic density in Madura Strait gives serious threat due to navigational safety in this area, i.e. ship collision. This study is necessary as an attempt to enhance the safety of marine traffic. Fuzzy inference system (FIS) is proposed to calculate risk collision of ships. Collision risk is evaluated based on ship domain, Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA), and Time to Closest Point of Approach (TCPA). Data were collected by utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS). This study considers several ships’ domain models to give the characteristic of marine traffic in the waterways. Each encounter in the ship domain is analyzed to obtain the level of collision risk. Risk level of ships, as the result in this study, can be used as guidance to avoid the accident, providing brief description about safety traffic in Madura Strait and improving the navigational safety in the area.

Keywords: Automatic identification system, collision risk, DCPA, fuzzy inference system, TCPA.

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Authors: A. R. Aswatha, T. Basavaraju, N. Bhaskara Rao

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This paper presents a new technique for the optimum placement of processors to minimize the total effective communication load under multi-processor communication dominated environment. This is achieved by placing heavily loaded processors near each other and lightly loaded ones far away from one another in the physical grid locations. The results are mathematically proved for the Algorithms are described.

Keywords: Ascending Sort Index Vector, EffectiveCommunication Load, Effective Distance Matrix, OptimalPlacement, Sorting Order.

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Authors: Lily Ingsrisawang, Tasanee Nacharoen

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The problems arising from unbalanced data sets generally appear in real world applications. Due to unequal class distribution, many researchers have found that the performance of existing classifiers tends to be biased towards the majority class. The k-nearest neighbors’ nonparametric discriminant analysis is a method that was proposed for classifying unbalanced classes with good performance. In this study, the methods of discriminant analysis are of interest in investigating misclassification error rates for classimbalanced data of three diabetes risk groups. The purpose of this study was to compare the classification performance between parametric discriminant analysis and nonparametric discriminant analysis in a three-class classification of class-imbalanced data of diabetes risk groups. Data from a project maintaining healthy conditions for 599 employees of a government hospital in Bangkok were obtained for the classification problem. The employees were divided into three diabetes risk groups: non-risk (90%), risk (5%), and diabetic (5%). The original data including the variables of diabetes risk group, age, gender, blood glucose, and BMI were analyzed and bootstrapped for 50 and 100 samples, 599 observations per sample, for additional estimation of the misclassification error rate. Each data set was explored for the departure of multivariate normality and the equality of covariance matrices of the three risk groups. Both the original data and the bootstrap samples showed nonnormality and unequal covariance matrices. The parametric linear discriminant function, quadratic discriminant function, and the nonparametric k-nearest neighbors’ discriminant function were performed over 50 and 100 bootstrap samples and applied to the original data. Searching the optimal classification rule, the choices of prior probabilities were set up for both equal proportions (0.33: 0.33: 0.33) and unequal proportions of (0.90:0.05:0.05), (0.80: 0.10: 0.10) and (0.70, 0.15, 0.15). The results from 50 and 100 bootstrap samples indicated that the k-nearest neighbors approach when k=3 or k=4 and the defined prior probabilities of non-risk: risk: diabetic as 0.90: 0.05:0.05 or 0.80:0.10:0.10 gave the smallest error rate of misclassification. The k-nearest neighbors approach would be suggested for classifying a three-class-imbalanced data of diabetes risk groups.

Keywords: Bootstrap, diabetes risk groups, error rate, k-nearest neighbors.

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Authors: Thomas Schalow

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This paper posits the need to take a cross-cultural approach to communication with non-human cultures and intelligences in order to meet the following three imminent contingencies: communicating with sentient biological intelligences, communicating with extraterrestrial intelligences, and communicating with artificial super-intelligences. The paper begins with a discussion of how intelligence emerges. It disputes some common assumptions we maintain about consciousness, intention, and language. The paper next explores cross-cultural communication among humans, including non-sapiens species. The next argument made is that we need to become much more serious about communicating with the non-human, intelligent life forms that already exist around us here on Earth. There is an urgent need to broaden our definition of communication and reach out to the other sentient life forms that inhabit our world. The paper next examines the science and philosophy behind CETI (communication with extraterrestrial intelligences) and how it has proven useful, even in the absence of contact with alien life. However, CETI’s assumptions and methodology need to be revised and based on the cross-cultural approach to communication proposed in this paper if we are truly serious about finding and communicating with life beyond Earth. The final theme explored in this paper is communication with non-biological super-intelligences using a cross-cultural communication approach. This will present a serious challenge for humanity, as we have never been truly compelled to converse with other species, and our failure to seriously consider such intercourse has left us largely unprepared to deal with communication in a future that will be mediated and controlled by computer algorithms. Fortunately, our experience dealing with other human cultures can provide us with a framework for this communication. The basic assumptions behind intercultural communication can be applied to the many types of communication envisioned in this paper if we are willing to recognize that we are in fact dealing with other cultures when we interact with other species, alien life, and artificial super-intelligence. The ideas considered in this paper will require a new mindset for humanity, but a new disposition will prepare us to face the challenges posed by a future dominated by artificial intelligence.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, CETI, communication, culture, language.

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Authors: Arundhati Devi Maibam, K. Ingocha Singh

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Cervical cancer is preventable if detected early. Determination of risk factors is essential to plan screening programmes to prevent the disease. To study the demographic risk factors of cervical cancer among Manipuri women, information on age, marital status, educational level, monthly family income and socioeconomic status were collected through a pre-tested interview schedule. In this study, 64 incident cases registered at the RT Dept, RIMS (Regional Institute of Medical Sciences), Imphal, Manipur, India during 2008-09 participated. Data were entered in Microsoft Excel and the results were expressed in percentages. Among the 64 patients with cervical cancer, 56 (88.9%) were in the age group of 40+ years. The majority of the patients were from rural areas (68.75%) and 31.25% were from urban areas. The majority of the patients were Hindus (73%), 55(85.9%) were of low educational level, 43(67.2%) were married, and 36 (56.25%) belonged to Class IV socioeconomic status. In conclusion, if detected early, cervical cancer is preventable and curable. The potential risk factors need to be identified and women in the risk group need to be motivated for screening. Affordable screening programmes and health care resources will help in lessening the burden of the disease.

Keywords: Cervical cancer, Manipuri women, RIIMS, Socio-demographic risk factors.

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Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

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This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: Prediction of financial markets, Adaptive methods, MSE, LSE.

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Authors: Victor H. Benitez, Ramon V. Armas-Flores, Jesus H. Pacheco-Ramirez

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Systems transforming solar energy into electrical power have emerged as a viable source of clean, renewable energy. Solar power tower technology is a good example of this type of system, which consists of several mobile mirrors, called heliostats, which reflect the sun's radiation to the same point, located on top of a tower at the center of heliostat field, for collection or transformation into another type of energy. The so-called Hermosillo’s Solar Platform (Plataforma Solar de Hermosillo, PSH, in Spanish) is a facility constituted with several heliostats, its aim and scope is for research purposes. In this paper, the implementation of a wireless communication system based on intelligent nodes is proposed in order to allow the communication and control of the heliostats in PSH. Intelligent nodes transmit information from one point to another, and can perform other actions that allow them to adapt to the conditions and limitations of a field of heliostats, thus achieving effective communication system. After deployment of the nodes in the heliostats, tests were conducted to measure the effectiveness of the communication, and determine the feasibility of using the proposed technologies. The test results were always positive, exceeding expectations held for its operation in the field of heliostats. Therefore, it was possible to validate the efficiency of the wireless communication system to be implemented in PSH, allowing communication and control of the heliostats.

Keywords: Solar energy, heliostat, wireless communication, intelligent node.

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Authors: Wern-Yarng Shieh, Chao Qian, Bingnan Pei

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A design of communication area for infrared electronic-toll-collection systems to provide an extended communication interval in the vehicle traveling direction and regular boundary between contiguous traffic lanes is proposed. By utilizing two typical low-cost commercial infrared LEDs with different half-intensity angles Φ1/2 = 22◦ and 10◦, the radiation pattern of the emitter is designed to properly adjust the spatial distribution of the signal power. The aforementioned purpose can be achieved with an LED array in a three-piece structure with appropriate mounting angles. With this emitter, the influence of the mounting parameters, including the mounting height and mounting angles of the on-board unit and road-side unit, on the system performance in terms of the received signal strength and communication area are investigated. The results reveal that, for our emitter proposed in this paper, the ideal ”long-and-narrow” characteristic of the communication area is very little affected by these mounting parameters. An optimum mounting configuration is also suggested.

Keywords: Dedicated short-range communication (DSRC), electronic toll collection (ETC), infrared communication, intelligent transportation system (ITS), multilane free flow.

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Authors: F. Esfandyari Darabad, Z. Samadi

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Natural environments have always been affected by one of the most important natural hazards, which is called, the mass movements that cause instability. Identifying the unstable regions and separating them so as to detect and determine the risk of environmental factors is one of the important issues in mountainous areas development. In this study, the northwest of Sabalan hillsides overlooking the Meshkin city and the surrounding area of that have been delimitated, in order to analyze the range processes such as landslides and debris flows based on structural and geomorphological conditions, by means of using GIS. This area due to the high slope of the hillsides and height of the region and the poor localization of roads and so because of them destabilizing the ranges own an inappropriate situation. This study is done with the purpose of identifying the effective factors in the range motion and determining the areas with high potential for zoning these movements by using GIS. The results showed that the most common range movements in the area, are debris flows, rocks falling and landslides. The effective factors in each one of the mass movements, considering a small amount of weight for each factor, the weight map of each factor and finally, the map of risk zoning for the range movements were provided. Based on the zoning map resulted in the study area, the risking level of damaging has specified into the four zones of very high risk, high risk, medium risk, low risk, in which areas with very high and high risk are settled near the road and along the Khyav river and in the  mountainous district.

Keywords: Debris flow, environmental hazards, GIS, landslide.

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Authors: K. Matušínská, H. Starzyczná, M. Stoklasa

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The paper deals with finding and describing of the effective marketing communication forms relating to the segment 50+ in the financial market in the Czech Republic. The segment 50+ can be seen as a great marketing potential in the future but unfortunately the Czech financial institutions haven´t still reacted enough to this fact and they haven´t prepared appropriate marketing programs for this customers´ segment. Demographic aging is a fundamental characteristic of the current European population evolution but the perspective of further population aging is more noticeable in the Czech Republic. This paper is based on data from one part of primary marketing research. Paper determinates the basic problem areas as well as definition of marketing communication in the financial market, defining the primary research problem, hypothesis and primary research methodology. Finally suitable marketing communication approach to selected sub-segment at age of 50-60 years is proposed according to marketing research findings.

Keywords: Population aging in the Czech Republic, segment 50+, financial services, marketing communication, marketing research, marketing communication approach.

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Authors: Lixin Tian, Wei Xue

Abstract:

Many jobs in society go underground, such as mine mining, tunnel construction and subways, which are vital to the development of society. Once accidents occur in these places, the interruption of traditional wired communication is not conducive to the development of rescue work. In order to realize the positioning, early warning and command functions of underground personnel and improve rescue efficiency, it is necessary to develop and design an emergency ground communication system. It is easy to be subjected to narrowband interference when performing conventional underground communication. Spreading communication can be used for this problem. However, general spread spectrum methods such as direct spread communication are inefficient, so it is proposed to use parallel combined spread spectrum (PCSS) communication to improve efficiency. The PCSS communication not only has the anti-interference ability and the good concealment of the traditional spread spectrum system, but also has a relatively high frequency band utilization rate and a strong information transmission capability. So, this technology has been widely used in practice. This paper presents a PCSS communication model-multiple detection parallel combined spread spectrum (MDPCSS) communication system. In this paper, the principle of MDPCSS communication system is described, that is, the sequence at the transmitting end is processed in blocks and cyclically shifted to facilitate multiple detection at the receiving end. The block diagrams of the transmitter and receiver of the MDPCSS communication system are introduced. At the same time, the calculation formula of the system bit error rate (BER) is introduced, and the simulation and analysis of the BER of the system are completed. By comparing with the common parallel PCSS communication, we can draw a conclusion that it is indeed possible to reduce the BER and improve the system performance. Furthermore, the influence of different pseudo-code lengths selected on the system BER is simulated and analyzed, and the conclusion is that the larger the pseudo-code length is, the smaller the system error rate is.

Keywords: Cyclic shift, multiple detection, parallel combined spread spectrum, PN code.

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Authors: Arie Pujiwati, Kengo Nakamura, Noriaki Watanabe, Takeshi Komai

Abstract:

Coal mining is well known to cause considerable environmental impacts, including trace element contamination of soil. This study aimed to assess the trace element (As, Cd, Co, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sb, and Zn) contamination of soil in the vicinity of coal mining activities, using the case study of Asam-asam River basin, South Kalimantan, Indonesia, and to assess the human health risk, incorporating total and bioavailable (water-leachable and acid-leachable) concentrations. The results show the enrichment of As and Co in soil, surpassing the background soil value. Contamination was evaluated based on the index of geo-accumulation, I_geo and the pollution index, PI. I_geo values showed that the soil was generally uncontaminated (I_geo ≤ 0), except for elevated As and Co. Mean PI for Ni and Cu indicated slight contamination. Regarding the assessment of health risks, the Hazard Index, HI showed adverse risks (HI > 1) for Ni, Co, and As. Further, Ni and As were found to pose unacceptable carcinogenic risk (risk > 1.10^-5). Farming, settlement, and plantation were found to present greater risk than coal mines. These results show that coal mining activity in the study area contaminates the soils by particular elements and may pose potential human health risk in its surrounding area. This study is important for setting appropriate countermeasure actions and improving basic coal mining management in Indonesia.

Keywords: Coal mine, risk, soil, trace elements.

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Authors: Boualem El Kechebour, Djilali Benouar

Abstract:

The objective of this work is to present a expertise on flooding hazard analysis and how to reduce the risk. The analysis concerns the disaster induced by the flood on November 10/11, 2001 in the Bab El Oued district of the city of Algiers.The study begins by an expertise of damages in related with the urban environment and the history of the urban growth of the site. After this phase, the work is focalized on the identification of the existing correlations between the development of the town and its vulnerability. The final step consists to elaborate the interpretations on the interactions between the urban growth, the sewerage network and the vulnerability of the urban system.In conclusion, several recommendations are formulated permitting the mitigation of the risk in the future. The principal recommendations concern the new urban operations and the existing urbanized sites.

Keywords: urban growth, sewerage network, vulnerability of town, flooding risk, mitigation

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