Search results for: Financial Decision Support Systems

Authors: Alexander P. Eremeev, Ivan E. Kurilenko, Pavel R. Varshavskiy

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In this paper the problem of the application of temporal reasoning and case-based reasoning in intelligent decision support systems is considered. The method of case-based reasoning with temporal dependences for the solution of problems of real-time diagnostics and forecasting in intelligent decision support systems is described. This paper demonstrates how the temporal case-based reasoning system can be used in intelligent decision support systems of the car access control. This work was supported by RFBR.

Keywords: Analogous reasoning, case-based reasoning, intelligent decision support systems, temporal reasoning.

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Authors: Alfonso Bastías, Álvaro González

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The actual grow of the infrastructure in develop country require sophisticate ways manage the operation and control the quality served. This research wants to concentrate in the operation of this infrastructure beyond the construction. The infrastructure-s operation involves an uncertain environment, where unexpected variables are present every day and everywhere. Decision makers need to make right decisions with right information/data analyzed most in real time. To adequately support their decisions and decrease any negative impact and collateral effect, they need to use computational tools called decision support systems (DSS), but now the main source of information came from common users thought an extensive crowdsourcing

Keywords: Crowdsourcing, Learning Systems, Decision Support Systems, Infrastructure, Construction.

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Authors: Barbora Chmelíková

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Making sound financial decisions is an essential skill which can have an impact on life of each consumer of financial products. The aim of this paper is to examine decision-making concerning financial matters and personal finance. The selected target group was university students majoring in finance related fields. The study was conducted in the Czech Republic at Masaryk University in 2015. In order to analyze financial decision-making questions related to basic finance decisions were developed to address the research objective. The results of the study suggest gaps in detecting best solutions to given financial decision-making questions among finance students. The analysis results indicate relation between financial decision-making and own experience with holding and using concrete financial products.

Keywords: Financial decision-making, financial literacy, personal finance, university students.

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Authors: M. Mazhar Manzoor, Nasar.A, A. Sattar

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In the open space of decision support system the mental impression of a manager-s decision has been the subject of large importance than the ordinary famous one, when helped by decision support system. Much of this study is an attempt to realize the relation of decision support system usage and decision outcomes that governs the system. For example, several researchers have proposed so many different models to analyze the linkage between decision support system processes and results of decision making. This study draws the important relation of manager-s mental approach with the use of decision support system. The findings of this paper are theoretical attempts to provide Decision Support System (DSS) in a way to exhibit and promote the learning in semi structured area. The proposed model shows the points of one-s learning improvements and maintains a theoretical approach in order to explore the DSS contribution in enhancing the decision forming and governing the system.

Keywords: Decision Support System , Learning Organization,

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Authors: Omar Boutkhoum, Mohamed Hanine, Tarik Agouti, Abdessadek Tikniouine

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This paper discusses the intake of combining multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with OLAP systems, to generate an integrated analysis process dealing with complex multi-criteria decision-making situations. In this context, a multi-agent modeling is presented for decision support systems by combining multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with OLAP systems. The proposed modeling which consists in performing the multi-agent system (MAS) architecture, procedure and protocol of the negotiation model is elaborated as a decision support tool for complex decision-making environments. Our objective is to take advantage from the multi-agent system which distributes resources and computational capabilities across interconnected agents, and provide a problem modeling in terms of autonomous interacting component-agents. Thus, the identification and evaluation of criteria as well as the evaluation and ranking of alternatives in a decision support situation will be performed by organizing tasks and user preferences between different agents in order to reach the right decision. At the end, an illustrative example is conducted to demonstrate the function and effectiveness of our MAS modeling.

Keywords: Multidimensional Analysis, OLAP Analysis, Multi-criteria Decision Analysis, Multi-Agent System, Decision Support System.

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Authors: Sun K. Yoo, Ki-Chang Nam, Hyun-Young Shin, Ho-Seong Moon, Hee Cheol Kang

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Automated intelligent, clinical decision support systems generally promote to help or to assist physicians and patients regarding to prevention of diseases or treatment of illnesses using computer represented knowledge and information. In this paper, assessment factors affecting the proper design of clinical decision support system were investigated. The required procedure steps for gathering the data from clinical trial and extracting the information from large volume of healthcare repositories were listed, which are necessary for validation and verification of evidence-based implementation of clinical decision support system. The goal of this paper is to extract useful evaluation factors affecting the quality of the clinical decision support system in the design, development, and implementation of a computer-based decision support system.

Keywords: Evaluation, Clinical Decision Support System.

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Authors: Musarrat Jabeen

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Thoughtful intelligence offers a sustainable position to enhance the influence of decision-makers. Thoughtful Intelligence implies the understanding to realize the impact of one’s thoughts, words and actions on the survival, dignity and development of the individuals, groups and nations. Thoughtful intelligence has received minimal consideration in the area of Decision Support Systems, with an end goal to evaluate the quantity of knowledge and its viability. This pattern degraded the imbibed contribution of thoughtful intelligence required for sustainable decision making. Given the concern, this paper concentrates on the question: How to present a model of Thoughtful Decision Support System (TDSS)? The aim of this paper is to appreciate the concepts of thoughtful intelligence and insinuate a Decision Support System based on thoughtful intelligence. Thoughtful intelligence includes three dynamic competencies: i) Realization about long term impacts of decisions that are made in a specific time and space, ii) A great sense of taking actions, iii) Intense interconnectivity with people and nature and; seven associate competencies, of Righteousness, Purposefulness, Understanding, Contemplation, Sincerity, Mindfulness, and Nurturing. The study utilizes two methods: Focused group discussion to count prevailing Decision Support Systems; 70% results of focus group discussions found six decision support systems and the positive inexistence of thoughtful intelligence among decision support systems regarding sustainable decision making. Delphi focused on defining thoughtful intelligence to model (TDSS). 65% results helped to conceptualize (definition and description) of thoughtful intelligence. TDSS is offered here as an addition in the decision making literature. The clients are top leaders.

Keywords: Thoughtful intelligence, Sustainable decision making, Thoughtful decision support system.

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Authors: Chee Siong Teh, Chee Peng Lim

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This paper proposes a novel architecture for developing decision support systems. Unlike conventional decision support systems, the proposed architecture endeavors to reveal the decision-making process such that humans' subjectivity can be incorporated into a computerized system and, at the same time, to preserve the capability of the computerized system in processing information objectively. A number of techniques used in developing the decision support system are elaborated to make the decisionmarking process transparent. These include procedures for high dimensional data visualization, pattern classification, prediction, and evolutionary computational search. An artificial data set is first employed to compare the proposed approach with other methods. A simulated handwritten data set and a real data set on liver disease diagnosis are then employed to evaluate the efficacy of the proposed approach. The results are analyzed and discussed. The potentials of the proposed architecture as a useful decision support system are demonstrated.

Keywords: Interactive evolutionary computation, multivariate data projection, pattern classification, topographic map.

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Authors: Nalinee Sophatsathit

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This research focuses on the use of a recommender system in decision support by means of a used car dealer case study in Bangkok Metropolitan. The goal is to develop an effective used car purchasing system for dealers based on the above premise. The underlying principle rests on content-based recommendation from a set of usability surveys. A prototype was developed to conduct buyers- survey selected from 5 experts and 95 general public. The responses were analyzed to determine the mean and standard deviation of buyers- preference. The results revealed that both groups were in favor of using the proposed system to assist their buying decision. This indicates that the proposed system is meritorious to used car dealers.

Keywords: Recommender Systems, Decision Support, Content- Based Recommendation, used car dealer.

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Authors: Abdallah A. Hlayel

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Operations research science (OR) deals with good success in developing and applying scientific methods for problem solving and decision-making. However, by using OR techniques, we can enhance the use of computer decision support systems to achieve optimal management for institutions. OR applies comprehensive analysis including all factors that effect on it and builds mathematical modeling to solve business or organizational problems. In addition, it improves decision-making and uses available resources efficiently. The adoption of OR by universities would definitely contributes to the development and enhancement of the performance of OR techniques. This paper provides an understanding of the structures, approaches and models of OR in problem solving and decisionmaking.

Keywords: Best candidates' method, decision making, decision support system, operations research.

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Authors: Popoola, C. F., Akinsanya, K., Babarinde, S. B., Farinde, D. A.

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This study investigated published financial statement as correlate of investment decision among commercial bank stakeholders in Nigeria. A correlation research design was used in the study. 180 users of published financial statement were purposively sampled from Lagos and Ibadan. Data generated were analyzed using Pearson correlation and regression. The findings of the study revealed that, balance sheet is negatively related with investment decision (r= -.483; p<.01) while income statement (r= .249; p<.001), notes on the account (r= .230; p<.001), cash flow statement (r= .202; p<.001), value added statement (r= .328; p<.001) and five-year financial summary (r= .191; p<.01) are positively related with investment decision. Findings also revealed that components of published financial statement significantly predicted good investment decision (R²= .983; F_(5,175)=284.5; p<.05) for commercial bank stakeholders. Therefore, it was suggested that Nigeria banks and professional bodies should instigate programs that will increase the knowledge of stakeholders on published financial statement.

Keywords: Commercial banks, Financial statement, Income Statement, Investment decision, Stakeholders.

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Authors: Wayne Goodridge, Alexander Nikov, Ashok Sahai

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Multi criteria decision making (MCDM) methods like analytic hierarchy process, ELECTRE and multi-attribute utility theory are critically studied. They have irregularities in terms of the reliability of ranking of the best alternatives. The Routing Decision Support (RDS) algorithm is trying to improve some of their deficiencies. This paper gives a mathematical verification that the RDS algorithm conforms to the test criteria for an effective MCDM method when a linear preference function is considered.

Keywords: Decision support systems, linear preference function, multi-criteria decision-making algorithm, analytic hierarchy process.

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Authors: Ashraf Khalil, Salam Abdallah, Khalil Al-hilo, Ebere Iroadu

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Financial literacy is one of the key factors needed in making informed financial decisions. As businesses continue to be more profit driven, more financial and economic intrigues arise that continue to put individuals at the risk of spending more and more without considering the short term and long term effects. We conducted a study to assess financial literacy and financial decision making among Emiratis. Our results show that financial literacy is lacking among Emiratis. Also, almost half of respondents owe loans to other peoples and 1/5 of them have bank loans. We expect that the outcome of this research will be useful for designing educational programs and policies to promote financial planning and security among Emiratis. We also posit that deeper and more informed understanding of this problem is a precursor for developing effective financial education programs with the aim of improving financial decision- making among Emiratis.

Keywords: Financial literacy, loans, financial planning, Emiratis.

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Authors: Tony Austin, Shanghua Sun, Nathan Lea, Steve Iliffe, Dipak Kalra, David Ingram, David Patterson

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Computer-based decision support (CDSS) systems can deliver real patient care and increase chances of long-term survival in areas of chronic disease management prone to poor control. One such CDSS, for the management of warfarin, is described in this paper and the outcomes shown. Data is derived from the running system and show a performance consistently around 20% better than the applicable guidelines.

Keywords: "Decision Support", "Anticoagulant Control"

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Authors: Kassem Saleh

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Decision Support System (DSS) are interactive software systems that are built to assist the management of an organization in the decision making process when faced with nonroutine problems in a specific application domain. Non-functional requirements (NFRs) for a DSS deal with the desirable qualities and restrictions that the DSS functionalities must satisfy. Unlike the functional requirements, which are tangible functionalities provided by the DSS, NFRs are often hidden and transparent to DSS users but affect the quality of the provided functionalities. NFRs are often overlooked or added later to the system in an ad hoc manner, leading to a poor overall quality of the system. In this paper, we discuss the development of NFRs as part of the requirements engineering phase of the system development life cycle of DSSs. To help eliciting NFRs, we provide a comprehensive taxonomy of NFRs for DSSs.

Keywords: Decision support system, Development, Elicitation, Non-functional requirements, Taxonomy

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Authors: Christiono Utomo, Arazi Idrus

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Value-based group decision is very complicated since many parties involved. There are different concern caused by differing preferences, experiences, and background. Therefore, a support system is required to enable each stakeholder to evaluate and rank the solution alternatives before engaging into negotiation with the other stakeholders. The support system is based on combination between value-based analysis, multi criteria group decision making based on satisfying options, and negotiation process based on coalition formation. This paper presents the group decision and negotiation on the selection of suitable material for a support bridge structure involving three decision makers, who are an estate manager, a project manager, and an engineer. There are three alternative solutions for the material of the support bridge structure, which are (a1) steel structure, (a2) reinforced concrete structure and (a3) wooden structure.

Keywords: Value-based, group decision, negotiation support, construction.

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Authors: S. Kamyabi, M. Salari, H. Shahabi

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One of the processes of slope that occurs every year in Iran and some parts of world and cause a lot of criminal and financial harms is called landslide. They are plenty of method to stability landslide in soil and rock slides. The use of the best method with the least cost and in the shortest time is important for researchers. In this research, determining the best method of stability is investigated by using of Decision Support systems. DSS is made for this purpose and was used (for Hasan Salaran area in Kurdistan). Field study data from topography, slope, geology, geometry of landslide and the related features was used. The related data entered decision making managements programs (DSS) (ALES).Analysis of mass stability indicated the instability potential at present. Research results show that surface and sub surface drainage the best method of stabilizing. Analysis of stability shows that acceptable increase in security coefficient is a consequence of drainage.

Keywords: Landslide, Decision Support systems, stability, Hasan Salaran landslide, Kurdistan province, Iran.

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Authors: D. Pinto, L. Castro, M.L. Cruzat, S. Barros, J. Gironás, C. Oberli, M. Torres, C. Escauriaza, A. Cipriano

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Flash Floods, together with landslides, are a common natural threat for people living in mountainous regions and foothills. One way to deal with this constant menace is the use of Early Warning Systems, which have become a very important mitigation strategy for natural disasters. In this work we present our proposal for a pilot Flash Flood Early Warning System for Santiago, Chile, the first stage of a more ambitious project that in a future stage shall also include early warning of landslides. To give a context for our approach, we first analyze three existing Flash Flood Early Warning Systems, focusing on their general architectures. We then present our proposed system, with main focus on the decision support system, a system that integrates empirical models and fuzzy expert systems to achieve reliable risk estimations.

Keywords: Decision Support System, Early Warning Systems, Flash Flood, Natural Hazard.

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Authors: Yeung C.L., Cheung C.F., Wang W.M., Tsui E.

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Narratives are invaluable assets of human lives. Due to the distinct features of narratives, they are useful for supporting human reasoning processes. However, many useful narratives become residuals in organizations or human minds nowadays. Researchers have contributed effort to investigate and improve narrative generation processes. This paper attempts to contemplate essential components in narratives and explore a computational approach to acquire and extract knowledge to generate narratives. The methodology and significant benefit for decision support are presented.

Keywords: Decision Support, Knowledge Management, Knowledge-based Systems, Narrative Generation

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Authors: R. Monib, C. I. Goodier, A. Gibb

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This paper aims to investigate decision support strategies in the EC sector to determine the most appropriate degree of modularization. This is achieved through three oil and gas (O&G) and two power plant case studies via semi-structured interviews (n = 59 and n = 27, respectively), analysis of project documents, and case study-specific semi-structured validation interviews (n = 12 and n = 8). Terminology to distinguish degrees of modularization is proposed, along with a decision-making support checklist and a diagrammatic decision-making support figure. Results indicate that the EC sub-sectors were substantially more satisfied with the application of component, structural, or traditional modularization compared with system modularization for some types of modules. Key drivers for decisions on the degree of modularization vary across module types. This paper can help the EC sector determine the most suitable degree of modularization via a decision-making support strategy.

Keywords: Modularization, engineering construction, case study, decision support.

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Authors: Christiono Utomo, Arazi Idrus, Isnanto, Annisa Nugraheni, Farida Rahmawati

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A Negotiation Support is required on a value-based decision to enable each stakeholder to evaluate and rank the solution alternatives before engaging into negotiation with the other stakeholders. This study demonstrates a process of negotiation support model for selection of a building system from value-based design perspective. The perspective is based on comparison of function and cost of a building system. Multi criteria decision techniques were applied to determine the relative value of the alternative solutions for performing the function. A satisfying option game theory are applied to the criteria of value-based decision which are LCC (life cycle cost) and function based FAST. The results demonstrate a negotiation process to select priorities of a building system. The support model can be extended to an automated negotiation by combining value based decision method, group decision and negotiation support.

Keywords: NSS, Value-based, Decision, Construction.

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Authors: M. S. Bani, Z. A. Rashid, K. H. K. Hamid, M. E. Harbawi, A.B.Alias, M. J. Aris

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Most Decision Support Systems (DSS) for waste management (WM) constructed are not widely marketed and lack practical applications. This is due to the number of variables and complexity of the mathematical models which include the assumptions and constraints required in decision making. The approach made by many researchers in DSS modelling is to isolate a few key factors that have a significant influence to the DSS. This segmented approach does not provide a thorough understanding of the complex relationships of the many elements involved. The various elements in constructing the DSS must be integrated and optimized in order to produce a viable model that is marketable and has practical application. The DSS model used in assisting decision makers should be integrated with GIS, able to give robust prediction despite the inherent uncertainties of waste generation and the plethora of waste characteristics, and gives optimal allocation of waste stream for recycling, incineration, landfill and composting.

Keywords: Review, decision support system, GIS and waste management.

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Authors: Alexandru George Floares

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Chronic hepatitis B can evolve to cirrhosis and liver cancer. Interferon is the only effective treatment, for carefully selected patients, but it is very expensive. Some of the selection criteria are based on liver biopsy, an invasive, costly and painful medical procedure. Therefore, developing efficient non-invasive selection systems, could be in the patients benefit and also save money. We investigated the possibility to create intelligent systems to assist the Interferon therapeutical decision, mainly by predicting with acceptable accuracy the results of the biopsy. We used a knowledge discovery in integrated medical data - imaging, clinical, and laboratory data. The resulted intelligent systems, tested on 500 patients with chronic hepatitis B, based on C5.0 decision trees and boosting, predict with 100% accuracy the results of the liver biopsy. Also, by integrating the other patients selection criteria, they offer a non-invasive support for the correct Interferon therapeutic decision. To our best knowledge, these decision systems outperformed all similar systems published in the literature, and offer a realistic opportunity to replace liver biopsy in this medical context.

Keywords: Interferon, chronic hepatitis B, intelligent virtualbiopsy.

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Authors: Gizelle K. Vianna, Gustavo S. Oliveira, Gabriel V. Cunha

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The use of decision support systems in agriculture may help monitoring large fields of crops by automatically detecting the symptoms of foliage diseases. In our work, we designed and implemented a decision support system for small tomatoes producers. This work investigates ways to recognize the late blight disease from the analysis of digital images of tomatoes, using a pair of multilayer perceptron neural networks. The networks outputs are used to generate repainted tomato images in which the injuries on the plant are highlighted, and to calculate the damage level of each plant. Those levels are then used to construct a situation map of a farm where a cellular automata simulates the outbreak evolution over the fields. The simulator can test different pesticides actions, helping in the decision on when to start the spraying and in the analysis of losses and gains of each choice of action.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, cellular automata, decision support system, pattern recognition.

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Authors: Garima Srivastava, R. K. Srivastava, R. C. Vaishya

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Decision Support System (DSS), a query-based system meant to help decision makers to use a variety of information for decision making, plays a very vital role in sustainable growth of any country. For this very purpose it is essential to analyze the educational system because education is the only way through which people can be made aware as to how to sustain our planet. The purpose of this paper is to prepare a decision support system for efficiency evaluation of education system with the help of Distributed Geographical Information System.

Keywords: Distributed GIS, Web GIS, Spatial Decision Support System, Bundelkhand Zone, Efficiency, Primary School Education.

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Authors: Katejarinporn Chaiya, Thawit Janbanklong

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The purposes of this study were to design and find users’ satisfaction after using the decision support system for tourism northern part of Thailand, which can provide tourists touristic information and plan their personal voyage. Such information can be retrieved systematically based on personal budget and provinces. The samples of this study were five experts and users 30 persons white collars in Bangkok. This decision support system was designed via ASP.NET. Its database was developed by using MySQL, for administrators are able to effectively manage the database. The application outcome revealed that the innovation works properly as sought in objectives. Specialists and white collars in Bangkok have evaluated the decision support system; the result was satisfactorily positive.

Keywords: Decision Support System, ASP.NET, MySQL.

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Authors: Humayun Murshed, Shibly Abdullah

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The research conducted in early seventies apparently assumed the existence of a universal decision model for union negotiators and furthermore tended to regard financial information as a ‘neutral’ input into a rational decision making process. However, research in the eighties began to question the neutrality of financial information as an input in collective bargaining rather viewing it as a potentially effective means for controlling the labour force. Furthermore, this later research also started challenging the simplistic assumptions relating particularly to union objectives which have underpinned the earlier search for universal union decision models. Despite the above developments there seems to be a dearth of studies in developing countries concerning the use of financial information in collective bargaining. This paper seeks to begin to remedy this deficiency. Utilising a case study approach based on two enterprises, one in the public sector and the other a multinational, the universal decision model is rejected and it is argued that the decision whether or not to use financial information is a contingent one and such a contingency is largely defined by the context and environment in which both union and management negotiators work. An attempt is also made to identify the factors constraining as well as promoting the use of financial information in collective bargaining, these being regarded as unique to the organisations within which the case studies are conducted.

Keywords: Collective Bargaining, Developing Countries, Disclosures, Financial Information.

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Authors: S. Kotsiantis, E. Koumanakos, D. Tzelepis, V. Tampakas

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This paper explores the effectiveness of machine learning techniques in detecting firms that issue fraudulent financial statements (FFS) and deals with the identification of factors associated to FFS. To this end, a number of experiments have been conducted using representative learning algorithms, which were trained using a data set of 164 fraud and non-fraud Greek firms in the recent period 2001-2002. The decision of which particular method to choose is a complicated problem. A good alternative to choosing only one method is to create a hybrid forecasting system incorporating a number of possible solution methods as components (an ensemble of classifiers). For this purpose, we have implemented a hybrid decision support system that combines the representative algorithms using a stacking variant methodology and achieves better performance than any examined simple and ensemble method. To sum up, this study indicates that the investigation of financial information can be used in the identification of FFS and underline the importance of financial ratios.

Keywords: Machine learning, stacking, classifier.

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Authors: Nermin Ozgulbas, Ali Serhan Koyuncugil

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One of the biggest problems of SMEs is their tendencies to financial distress because of insufficient finance background. In this study, an Early Warning System (EWS) model based on data mining for financial risk detection is presented. CHAID algorithm has been used for development of the EWS. Developed EWS can be served like a tailor made financial advisor in decision making process of the firms with its automated nature to the ones who have inadequate financial background. Besides, an application of the model implemented which covered 7,853 SMEs based on Turkish Central Bank (TCB) 2007 data. By using EWS model, 31 risk profiles, 15 risk indicators, 2 early warning signals, and 4 financial road maps has been determined for financial risk mitigation.

Keywords: Early Warning Systems, Data Mining, Financial Risk, SMEs.

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Authors: Yang Bao, LuJing Zhang

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Typical Intelligent Decision Support System is 4-based, its design composes of Data Warehouse, Online Analytical Processing, Data Mining and Decision Supporting based on models, which is called Decision Support System Based on Data Warehouse (DSSBDW). This way takes ETL,OLAP and DM as its implementing means, and integrates traditional model-driving DSS and data-driving DSS into a whole. For this kind of problem, this paper analyzes the DSSBDW architecture and DW model, and discusses the following key issues: ETL designing and Realization; metadata managing technology using XML; SQL implementing, optimizing performance, data mapping in OLAP; lastly, it illustrates the designing principle and method of DW in DSSBDW.

Keywords: Decision Support System, Data Warehouse, Data Mining.

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