Search results for: Data Model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 12573

Search results for: Data Model

12513 Continual Learning Using Data Generation for Hyperspectral Remote Sensing Scene Classification

Authors: Samiah Alammari, Nassim Ammour

Abstract:

When providing a massive number of tasks successively to a deep learning process, a good performance of the model requires preserving the previous tasks data to retrain the model for each upcoming classification. Otherwise, the model performs poorly due to the catastrophic forgetting phenomenon. To overcome this shortcoming, we developed a successful continual learning deep model for remote sensing hyperspectral image regions classification. The proposed neural network architecture encapsulates two trainable subnetworks. The first module adapts its weights by minimizing the discrimination error between the land-cover classes during the new task learning, and the second module tries to learn how to replicate the data of the previous tasks by discovering the latent data structure of the new task dataset. We conduct experiments on hyperspectral image (HSI) dataset on Indian Pines. The results confirm the capability of the proposed method.

Keywords: Continual learning, data reconstruction, remote sensing, hyperspectral image segmentation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 151
12512 IoT Device Cost Effective Storage Architecture and Real-Time Data Analysis/Data Privacy Framework

Authors: Femi Elegbeleye, Seani Rananga

Abstract:

This paper focused on cost effective storage architecture using fog and cloud data storage gateway, and presented the design of the framework for the data privacy model and data analytics framework on a real-time analysis when using machine learning method. The paper began with the system analysis, system architecture and its component design, as well as the overall system operations. Several results obtained from this study on data privacy models show that when two or more data privacy models are integrated via a fog storage gateway, we often have more secure data. Our main focus in the study is to design a framework for the data privacy model, data storage, and real-time analytics. This paper also shows the major system components and their framework specification. And lastly, the overall research system architecture was shown, including its structure, and its interrelationships.

Keywords: IoT, fog storage, cloud storage, data analysis, data privacy.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 154
12511 Bootstrap Confidence Intervals and Parameter Estimation for Zero Inflated Strict Arcsine Model

Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

Zero inflated Strict Arcsine model is a newly developed model which is found to be appropriate in modeling overdispersed count data. In this study, maximum likelihood estimation method is used in estimating the parameters for zero inflated strict arcsine model. Bootstrapping is then employed to compute the confidence intervals for the estimated parameters.

Keywords: overdispersed count data, maximum likelihood estimation, simulated annealing, BCa confidence intervals.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2247
12510 Dynamics of Phytoplankton Blooms in the Baltic Sea – Numerical Simulations

Authors: L. Dzierzbicka-Głowacka, M. Janecki

Abstract:

Dynamic of phytoplankton blooms in the Baltic Sea has been analyzed applying the numerical ecosystem model 3D CEMBS. The model consists of the hydrodynamic model (POP, version 2.1) and the ice model (CICE, version 4.0), which are imposed by the atmospheric data model (DATM7). The 3D model has an ecosystem module, activated in 2012 in the operational mode. The ecosystem model consists of 11 main variables: biomass of small-size phytoplankton and large-size phytoplankton and cyanobacteria, zooplankton biomass, dissolved and molecular detritus, dissolved oxygen concentration, as well as concentrations of nutrients, including: nitrates, ammonia, phosphates and silicates. The 3D-CEMBS model is an effective tool for solving problems related to phytoplankton blooms dynamic in the Baltic Sea

Keywords: Ecosystem model, phytoplankton, Baltic Sea

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2631
12509 Parameter Estimation using Maximum Likelihood Method from Flight Data at High Angles of Attack

Authors: Rakesh Kumar, A. K. Ghosh

Abstract:

The paper presents the modeling of nonlinear longitudinal aerodynamics using flight data of Hansa-3 aircraft at high angles of attack near stall. The Kirchhoff-s quasi-steady stall model has been used to incorporate nonlinear aerodynamic effects in the aerodynamic model used to estimate the parameters, thereby, making the aerodynamic model nonlinear. The Maximum Likelihood method has been applied to the flight data (at high angles of attack) for the estimation of parameters (aerodynamic and stall characteristics) using the nonlinear aerodynamic model. To improve the accuracy level of the estimates, an approach of fixing the strong parameters has also been presented.

Keywords: Maximum Likelihood, nonlinear, parameters, stall.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2170
12508 Evaluation of Model Evaluation Criterion for Software Development Effort Estimation

Authors: S. K. Pillai, M. K. Jeyakumar

Abstract:

Estimation of model parameters is necessary to predict the behavior of a system. Model parameters are estimated using optimization criteria. Most algorithms use historical data to estimate model parameters. The known target values (actual) and the output produced by the model are compared. The differences between the two form the basis to estimate the parameters. In order to compare different models developed using the same data different criteria are used. The data obtained for short scale projects are used here. We consider software effort estimation problem using radial basis function network. The accuracy comparison is made using various existing criteria for one and two predictors. Then, we propose a new criterion based on linear least squares for evaluation and compared the results of one and two predictors. We have considered another data set and evaluated prediction accuracy using the new criterion. The new criterion is easy to comprehend compared to single statistic. Although software effort estimation is considered, this method is applicable for any modeling and prediction.

Keywords: Software effort estimation, accuracy, Radial Basis Function, linear least squares.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1981
12507 An Efficient Iterative Updating Method for Damped Structural Systems

Authors: Jiashang Jiang

Abstract:

Model updating is an inverse eigenvalue problem which concerns the modification of an existing but inaccurate model with measured modal data. In this paper, an efficient gradient based iterative method for updating the mass, damping and stiffness matrices simultaneously using a few of complex measured modal data is developed. Convergence analysis indicates that the iterative solutions always converge to the unique minimum Frobenius norm symmetric solution of the model updating problem by choosing a special kind of initial matrices.

Keywords: Model updating, iterative algorithm, damped structural system, optimal approximation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2039
12506 Organizational Data Security in Perspective of Ownership of Mobile Devices Used by Employees for Works

Authors: B. Ferdousi, J. Bari

Abstract:

With advancement of mobile computing, employees are increasingly doing their job-related works using personally owned mobile devices or organization owned devices. The Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) model allows employees to use their own mobile devices for job-related works, while Corporate Owned, Personally Enabled (COPE) model allows both organizations and employees to install applications onto organization-owned mobile devices used for job-related works. While there are many benefits of using mobile computing for job-related works, there are also serious concerns of different levels of threats to the organizational data security. Consequently, it is crucial to know the level of threat to the organizational data security in the BOYD and COPE models. It is also important to ensure that employees comply with the organizational data security policy. This paper discusses the organizational data security issues in perspective of ownership of mobile devices used by employees, especially in BYOD and COPE models. It appears that while the BYOD model has many benefits, there are relatively more data security risks in this model than in the COPE model. The findings also showed that in both BYOD and COPE environments, a more practical approach towards achieving secure mobile computing in organizational setting is through the development of comprehensive cybersecurity policies balancing employees’ need for convenience with organizational data security. The study helps to figure out the compliance and the risks of security breach in BYOD and COPE models.

Keywords: Data security, mobile computing, BYOD, COPE, cybersecurity policy, cybersecurity compliance.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 276
12505 Perception-Oriented Model Driven Development for Designing Data Acquisition Process in Wireless Sensor Networks

Authors: K. Indra Gandhi

Abstract:

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) have always been characterized for application-specific sensing, relaying and collection of information for further analysis. However, software development was not considered as a separate entity in this process of data collection which has posed severe limitations on the software development for WSN. Software development for WSN is a complex process since the components involved are data-driven, network-driven and application-driven in nature. This implies that there is a tremendous need for the separation of concern from the software development perspective. A layered approach for developing data acquisition design based on Model Driven Development (MDD) has been proposed as the sensed data collection process itself varies depending upon the application taken into consideration. This work focuses on the layered view of the data acquisition process so as to ease the software point of development. A metamodel has been proposed that enables reusability and realization of the software development as an adaptable component for WSN systems. Further, observing users perception indicates that proposed model helps in improving the programmer's productivity by realizing the collaborative system involved.

Keywords: Model-driven development, wireless sensor networks, data acquisition, separation of concern, layered design.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 911
12504 New Multi-Solid Thermodynamic Model for the Prediction of Wax Formation

Authors: Ehsan Ghanaei, Feridun Esmaeilzadeh, Jamshid Fathi Kaljahi

Abstract:

In the previous multi-solid models,¤ò approach is used for the calculation of fugacity in the liquid phase. For the first time, in the proposed multi-solid thermodynamic model,γ approach has been used for calculation of fugacity in the liquid mixture. Therefore, some activity coefficient models have been studied that the results show that the predictive Wilson model is more appropriate than others. The results demonstrate γ approach using the predictive Wilson model is in more agreement with experimental data than the previous multi-solid models. Also, by this method, generates a new approach for presenting stability analysis in phase equilibrium calculations. Meanwhile, the run time in γ approach is less than the previous methods used ¤ò approach. The results of the new model present 0.75 AAD % (Average Absolute Deviation) from the experimental data which is less than the results error of the previous multi-solid models obviously.

Keywords: Multi-solid thermodynamic model, PredictiveWilson model, Wax formation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1929
12503 Comparison of Material Constitutive Models Used in FEA of Low Volume Roads

Authors: Lenka Ševelová, Aleš Florian

Abstract:

Appropriate and progressive tool for analyzing behavior of low volume roads are probabilistic models used in reliability analyses. The necessary part of the probabilistic model is the deterministic model of structural behavior. The FE model of low volume roads is created in the ANSYS software. It is able to determine the state of stress and deformation in any point of the structure and thus generate data required for the reliability analysis. The paper compares two material constitutive models used for modeling of unbound non-homogenous materials used in low volume roads. The first model is linear elastic model according to Hook theory (H model), the second one is nonlinear elastic-plastic Drucker-Prager model (D-P model).

Keywords: FEA, FEM, geotechnical materials, low volume roads, material constitutive models, pavement.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2833
12502 Liquid-Liquid Equilibrium for the Binary Mixtures of α-Pinene + Water and α-Terpineol + Water

Authors: Herti Utami, Sutijan, Roto, Wahyudi Budi Sediawan

Abstract:

α-Pinene is the main component of the most turpentine oils. The hydration of α-pinene with acid catalysts leads to a complex mixture of monoterpenes. In order to obtain more valuable products, the α-pinene in the turpentine can be hydrated in dilute mineral acid solutions to produce α-terpineol. The design of separation processes requires information on phase equilibrium and related thermodynamic properties. This paper reports the results of study on liquid-liquid equilibrium (LLE) of system containing α- pinene + water and α-terpineol + water. Binary LLE for α-pinene + water system, and α-terpineol + water systems were determined by experiment at 301K and atmospheric pressure. The two component mixture was stirred for about 30min, then the mixture was left for about 2h for complete phase separation. The composition of both phases was analyzed by using a Gas Chromatograph. The experimental data were correlated by considering both NRTL and UNIQUAC activity coefficient models. The LLE data for the system of α-pinene + water and α-terpineol + water were correlated successfully by the NRTL model. The experimental data were not satisfactorily fitted by the UNIQUAC model. The NRTL model (α =0.3) correlates the LLE data for the system of α-pinene + water at 301K with RMSD of 0.0404%. And the NRTL model (α =0.61) at 301K with RMSD of 0.0058 %. The NRTL model (α =0.3) correlates the LLE data for the system of α- terpineol + water at 301K with RMSD of 0.1487% and the NRTL model (α =0.6) at 301K with RMSD of 0.0032%, between the experimental and calculated mole fractions.

Keywords: α-Pinene, α-Terpineol, Liquid-liquid Equilibrium, NRTL model, UNIQUAC model

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 4928
12501 On Methodologies for Analysing Sickness Absence Data: An Insight into a New Method

Authors: Xiaoshu Lu, Päivi Leino-Arjas, Kustaa Piha, Akseli Aittomäki, Peppiina Saastamoinen, Ossi Rahkonen, Eero Lahelma

Abstract:

Sickness absence represents a major economic and social issue. Analysis of sick leave data is a recurrent challenge to analysts because of the complexity of the data structure which is often time dependent, highly skewed and clumped at zero. Ignoring these features to make statistical inference is likely to be inefficient and misguided. Traditional approaches do not address these problems. In this study, we discuss model methodologies in terms of statistical techniques for addressing the difficulties with sick leave data. We also introduce and demonstrate a new method by performing a longitudinal assessment of long-term absenteeism using a large registration dataset as a working example available from the Helsinki Health Study for municipal employees from Finland during the period of 1990-1999. We present a comparative study on model selection and a critical analysis of the temporal trends, the occurrence and degree of long-term sickness absences among municipal employees. The strengths of this working example include the large sample size over a long follow-up period providing strong evidence in supporting of the new model. Our main goal is to propose a way to select an appropriate model and to introduce a new methodology for analysing sickness absence data as well as to demonstrate model applicability to complicated longitudinal data.

Keywords: Sickness absence, longitudinal data, methodologies, mix-distribution model.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2228
12500 Segmentation of Piecewise Polynomial Regression Model by Using Reversible Jump MCMC Algorithm

Authors: Suparman

Abstract:

Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.

Keywords: Piecewise, Bayesian, reversible jump MCMC, segmentation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1625
12499 Optical Fiber Data Throughput in a Quantum Communication System

Authors: Arash Kosari, Ali Araghi

Abstract:

A mathematical model for an optical-fiber communication channel is developed which results in an expression that calculates the throughput and loss of the corresponding link. The data are assumed to be transmitted by using of separate photons with different polarizations. The derived model also shows the dependency of data throughput with length of the channel and depolarization factor. It is observed that absorption of photons affects the throughput in a more intensive way in comparison with that of depolarization. Apart from that, the probability of depolarization and the absorption of radiated photons are obtained.

Keywords: Absorption, data throughput, depolarization, optical fiber.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1628
12498 TELUM Land Use Model: An Investigation of Data Requirements and Calibration Results for Chittenden County MPO, U.S.A.

Authors: Georgia Pozoukidou

Abstract:

TELUM software is a land use model designed specifically to help metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) prepare their transportation improvement programs and fulfill their numerous planning responsibilities. In this context obtaining, preparing, and validating socioeconomic forecasts are becoming fundamental tasks for an MPO in order to ensure that consistent population and employment data are provided to travel demand models. Chittenden County Metropolitan Planning Organization of Vermont State was used as a case study to test the applicability of TELUM land use model. The technical insights and lessons learned from the land use model application have transferable value for all MPOs faced with land use forecasting development and transportation modeling.

Keywords: Calibration data requirements, land use models, land use planning, Metropolitan Planning Organizations.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2043
12497 Asynchronous Microcontroller Simulation Model in VHDL

Authors: M. Kovac

Abstract:

This article describes design of the 8-bit asynchronous microcontroller simulation model in VHDL. The model is created in ISE Foundation design tool and simulated in Modelsim tool. This model is a simple application example of asynchronous systems designed in synchronous design tools. The design process of creating asynchronous system with 4-phase bundled-data protocol and with matching delays is described in the article. The model is described in gate-level abstraction. The simulation waveform of the functional construction is the result of this article. Described construction covers only the simulation model. The next step would be creating synthesizable model to FPGA.

Keywords: Asynchronous, Microcontroller, VHDL, FPGA.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3253
12496 Integration of Big Data to Predict Transportation for Smart Cities

Authors: Sun-Young Jang, Sung-Ah Kim, Dongyoun Shin

Abstract:

The Intelligent transportation system is essential to build smarter cities. Machine learning based transportation prediction could be highly promising approach by delivering invisible aspect visible. In this context, this research aims to make a prototype model that predicts transportation network by using big data and machine learning technology. In detail, among urban transportation systems this research chooses bus system.  The research problem that existing headway model cannot response dynamic transportation conditions. Thus, bus delay problem is often occurred. To overcome this problem, a prediction model is presented to fine patterns of bus delay by using a machine learning implementing the following data sets; traffics, weathers, and bus statues. This research presents a flexible headway model to predict bus delay and analyze the result. The prototyping model is composed by real-time data of buses. The data are gathered through public data portals and real time Application Program Interface (API) by the government. These data are fundamental resources to organize interval pattern models of bus operations as traffic environment factors (road speeds, station conditions, weathers, and bus information of operating in real-time). The prototyping model is designed by the machine learning tool (RapidMiner Studio) and conducted tests for bus delays prediction. This research presents experiments to increase prediction accuracy for bus headway by analyzing the urban big data. The big data analysis is important to predict the future and to find correlations by processing huge amount of data. Therefore, based on the analysis method, this research represents an effective use of the machine learning and urban big data to understand urban dynamics.

Keywords: Big data, bus headway prediction, machine learning, public transportation.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1519
12495 Analysis of Users’ Behavior on Book Loan Log Based On Association Rule Mining

Authors: Kanyarat Bussaban, Kunyanuth Kularbphettong

Abstract:

This research aims to create a model for analysis of student behavior using Library resources based on data mining technique in case of Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. The model was created under association rules, Apriori algorithm. The results were found 14 rules and the rules were tested with testing data set and it showed that the ability of classify data was 79.24percent and the MSE was 22.91. The results showed that the user’s behavior model by using association rule technique can use to manage the library resources.

Keywords: Behavior, data mining technique, Apriori algorithm.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2262
12494 Bayesian Network Model for Students- Laboratory Work Performance Assessment: An Empirical Investigation of the Optimal Construction Approach

Authors: Ifeyinwa E. Achumba, Djamel Azzi, Rinat Khusainov

Abstract:

There are three approaches to complete Bayesian Network (BN) model construction: total expert-centred, total datacentred, and semi data-centred. These three approaches constitute the basis of the empirical investigation undertaken and reported in this paper. The objective is to determine, amongst these three approaches, which is the optimal approach for the construction of a BN-based model for the performance assessment of students- laboratory work in a virtual electronic laboratory environment. BN models were constructed using all three approaches, with respect to the focus domain, and compared using a set of optimality criteria. In addition, the impact of the size and source of the training, on the performance of total data-centred and semi data-centred models was investigated. The results of the investigation provide additional insight for BN model constructors and contribute to literature providing supportive evidence for the conceptual feasibility and efficiency of structure and parameter learning from data. In addition, the results highlight other interesting themes.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, model construction, parameterlearning, structure learning, performance index, model comparison.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1684
12493 Application of GM (1, 1) Model Group Based on Recursive Solution in China's Energy Demand Forecasting

Authors: Yeqing Guan, Fen Yang

Abstract:

To learn about China-s future energy demand, this paper first proposed GM(1,1) model group based on recursive solutions of parameters estimation, setting up a general solving-algorithm of the model group. This method avoided the problems occurred on the past researches that remodeling, loss of information and large amount of calculation. This paper established respectively all-data-GM(1,1), metabolic GM(1,1) and new information GM (1,1)model according to the historical data of energy consumption in China in the year 2005-2010 and the added data of 2011, then modeling, simulating and comparison of accuracies we got the optimal models and to predict. Results showed that the total energy demand of China will be 37.2221 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2012 and 39.7973 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2013, which are as the same as the overall planning of energy demand in The 12th Five-Year Plan.

Keywords: energy demands, GM(1, 1) model group, least square estimation, prediction

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1512
12492 Computational Aspects of Regression Analysis of Interval Data

Authors: Michal Cerny

Abstract:

We consider linear regression models where both input data (the values of independent variables) and output data (the observations of the dependent variable) are interval-censored. We introduce a possibilistic generalization of the least squares estimator, so called OLS-set for the interval model. This set captures the impact of the loss of information on the OLS estimator caused by interval censoring and provides a tool for quantification of this effect. We study complexity-theoretic properties of the OLS-set. We also deal with restricted versions of the general interval linear regression model, in particular the crisp input – interval output model. We give an argument that natural descriptions of the OLS-set in the crisp input – interval output cannot be computed in polynomial time. Then we derive easily computable approximations for the OLS-set which can be used instead of the exact description. We illustrate the approach by an example.

Keywords: Linear regression, interval-censored data, computational complexity.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1417
12491 Spatial Econometric Approaches for Count Data: An Overview and New Directions

Authors: Paula Simões, Isabel Natário

Abstract:

This paper reviews a number of theoretical aspects for implementing an explicit spatial perspective in econometrics for modelling non-continuous data, in general, and count data, in particular. It provides an overview of the several spatial econometric approaches that are available to model data that are collected with reference to location in space, from the classical spatial econometrics approaches to the recent developments on spatial econometrics to model count data, in a Bayesian hierarchical setting. Considerable attention is paid to the inferential framework, necessary for structural consistent spatial econometric count models, incorporating spatial lag autocorrelation, to the corresponding estimation and testing procedures for different assumptions, to the constrains and implications embedded in the various specifications in the literature. This review combines insights from the classical spatial econometrics literature as well as from hierarchical modeling and analysis of spatial data, in order to look for new possible directions on the processing of count data, in a spatial hierarchical Bayesian econometric context.

Keywords: Spatial data analysis, spatial econometrics, Bayesian hierarchical models, count data.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2638
12490 Churn Prediction for Telecommunication Industry Using Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: Ulas Vural, M. Ergun Okay, E. Mesut Yildiz

Abstract:

Telecommunication service providers demand accurate and precise prediction of customer churn probabilities to increase the effectiveness of their customer relation services. The large amount of customer data owned by the service providers is suitable for analysis by machine learning methods. In this study, expenditure data of customers are analyzed by using an artificial neural network (ANN). The ANN model is applied to the data of customers with different billing duration. The proposed model successfully predicts the churn probabilities at 83% accuracy for only three months expenditure data and the prediction accuracy increases up to 89% when the nine month data is used. The experiments also show that the accuracy of ANN model increases on an extended feature set with information of the changes on the bill amounts.

Keywords: Customer relationship management, churn prediction, telecom industry, deep learning, Artificial Neural Networks, ANN.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 696
12489 The Non-Stationary BINARMA(1,1) Process with Poisson Innovations: An Application on Accident Data

Authors: Y. Sunecher, N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

Abstract:

This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide reliable one-step ahead forecasts.

Keywords: Non-stationary, BINARMA(1, 1) model, Poisson Innovations, CML

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 549
12488 Estimating the Runoff Using the Simple Tank Model and Comparing it with the SCS-CN Model - A Case Study of the Dez River Basin

Authors: H. Alaleh, N. Hedayat, A. Alaleh, H. Ayazi, A. Ruhani

Abstract:

Run-offs are considered as important hydrological factors in feasibility studies of river engineering and irrigation-related projects under arid and semi-arid condition. Flood control is one of the crucial factor, the management of which while mitigates its destructive consequences, abstracts considerable volume of renewable water resources. The methodology applied here was based on Mizumura, which applied a mathematical model for simple tank to simulate the rainfall-run-off process in a particular water basin using the data from the observational hydrograph. The model was applied in the Dez River water basin adjacent to Greater Dezful region, Iran in order to simulate and estimate the floods. Results indicated that the calculated hydrographs using the simple tank method, SCS-CN model and the observation hydrographs had a close proximity. It was also found that on average the flood time and discharge peaks in the simple tank were closer to the observational data than the CN method. On the other hand, the calculated flood volume in the CN model was significantly closer to the observational data than the simple tank model.

Keywords: Simple tank, Dez River, run-off, lag time, excess rainfall.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2550
12487 Positioning a Southern Inclusive Framework Embedded in the Social Model of Disability Theory Contextualized for Guyana

Authors: Lidon Lashley

Abstract:

This paper presents how the social model of disability can be used to reshape inclusive education practices in Guyana. Inclusive education in Guyana is metamorphosizing but still firmly held in the tenets of the Medical Model of Disability which influences the experiences of children with Special Education Needs and/or Disabilities (SEN/D). An ethnographic approach to data gathering was employed in this study. Qualitative data were gathered from the voices of children with and without SEN/D as well as their mainstream teachers to present the interplay of discourses and subjectivities in the situation. The data were analyzed using Adele Clarke's situational analysis. The data suggest that it is possible but will be challenging to fully contextualize and adopt Loreman's synthesis and Booths and Ainscow's Index in the two mainstream schools studied. In addition, the data paved the way for the presentation of the 'Southern Inclusive Education Framework for Guyana' and its support tool 'The Inclusive Checker created for Southern mainstream primary classrooms'.

Keywords: Social Model of Disability, Medical Model of Disability, subjectivities, metamorphosis, special education needs, postcolonial Guyana, Quasi-inclusion practices, Guyanese cultural challenges, mainstream primary schools, Loreman's Synthesis, Booths and Ainscow's Index.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 507
12486 Development of a RAM Simulation Model for Acid Gas Removal System

Authors: Ainul Akmar Mokhtar, Masdi Muhammad, Hilmi Hussin, Mohd Amin Abdul Majid

Abstract:

A reliability, availability and maintainability (RAM) model has been built for acid gas removal plant for system analysis that will play an important role in any process modifications, if required, for achieving its optimum performance. Due to the complexity of the plant, the model was based on a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) with a Monte Carlo simulation engine. The model has been validated against actual plant data as well as local expert opinions, resulting in an acceptable simulation model. The results from the model showed that the operation and maintenance can be further improved, resulting in reduction of the annual production loss.

Keywords: Acid gas removal plant, RAM model, Reliabilityblock diagram

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2279
12485 Model Membrane from Shed Snake Skins

Authors: M. Kumpugdee-Vollrath, T. Subongkot, T. Ngawhirunpat

Abstract:

In this project we are interested in studying different kinds of shed snake skins in order to apply them as a model membrane for pharmaceutical purposes instead of human stratum corneum. Many types of shed snake skins as well as model drugs were studied by different techniques. The data will give deeper understanding about the interaction between drugs and model membranes and may allow us to choose the suitable model membrane for studying the effect of pharmaceutical products.

Keywords: DSC, FTIR, permeation, SAXS, shed snake skin.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2340
12484 A Simplified Higher-Order Markov Chain Model

Authors: Chao Wang, Ting-Zhu Huang, Chen Jia

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a simplified higher-order Markov chain model for multiple categorical data sequences also called as simplified higher-order multivariate Markov chain model.

Keywords: Higher-order multivariate Markov chain model, Categorical data sequences, Multivariate Markov chain.

Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3231