Search results for: Bayesian estimation
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1157

Search results for: Bayesian estimation

1007 Estimation of Load Impedance in Presence of Harmonics

Authors: Khaled M. EL-Naggar

Abstract:

This paper presents a fast and efficient on-line technique for estimating impedance of unbalanced loads in power systems. The proposed technique is an application of a discrete timedynamic filter based on stochastic estimation theory which is suitable for estimating parameters in noisy environment. The algorithm uses sets of digital samples of the distorted voltage and current waveforms of the non-linear load to estimate the harmonic contents of these two signal. The non-linear load impedance is then calculated from these contents. The method is tested using practical data. Results are reported and compared with those obtained using the conventional least error squares technique. In addition to the very accurate results obtained, the method can detect and reject bad measurements. This can be considered as a very important advantage over the conventional static estimation methods such as the least error square method.

Keywords: Estimation, identification, Harmonics, Dynamic Filter.

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1006 Parameters Estimation of Double Diode Solar Cell Model

Authors: M. R. AlRashidi, K. M. El-Naggar, M. F. AlHajri

Abstract:

A new technique based on Pattern search optimization is proposed for estimating different solar cell parameters in this paper. The estimated parameters are the generated photocurrent, saturation current, series resistance, shunt resistance, and ideality factor. The proposed approach is tested and validated using double diode model to show its potential. Performance of the developed approach is quite interesting which signifies its potential as a promising estimation tool.

Keywords: Solar Cell, Parameter Estimation, Pattern Search.

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1005 A Fuzzy Tumor Volume Estimation Approach Based On Fuzzy Segmentation of MR Images

Authors: Sara A.Yones, Ahmed S. Moussa

Abstract:

Quantitative measurements of tumor in general and tumor volume in particular, become more realistic with the use of Magnetic Resonance imaging, especially when the tumor morphological changes become irregular and difficult to assess by clinical examination. However, tumor volume estimation strongly depends on the image segmentation, which is fuzzy by nature. In this paper a fuzzy approach is presented for tumor volume segmentation based on the fuzzy connectedness algorithm. The fuzzy affinity matrix resulting from segmentation is then used to estimate a fuzzy volume based on a certainty parameter, an Alpha Cut, defined by the user. The proposed method was shown to highly affect treatment decisions. A statistical analysis was performed in this study to validate the results based on a manual method for volume estimation and the importance of using the Alpha Cut is further explained.

Keywords: Alpha Cut, Fuzzy Connectedness, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Tumor volume estimation.

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1004 Extended Constraint Mask Based One-Bit Transform for Low-Complexity Fast Motion Estimation

Authors: Oğuzhan Urhan

Abstract:

In this paper, an improved motion estimation (ME) approach based on weighted constrained one-bit transform is proposed for block-based ME employed in video encoders. Binary ME approaches utilize low bit-depth representation of the original image frames with a Boolean exclusive-OR based hardware efficient matching criterion to decrease computational burden of the ME stage. Weighted constrained one-bit transform (WC‑1BT) based approach improves the performance of conventional C-1BT based ME employing 2-bit depth constraint mask instead of a 1-bit depth mask. In this work, the range of constraint mask is further extended to increase ME performance of WC-1BT approach. Experiments reveal that the proposed method provides better ME accuracy compared existing similar ME methods in the literature.

Keywords: Fast motion estimation, low-complexity motion estimation, video coding.

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1003 Sensitivity Analysis for Direction of Arrival Estimation Using Capon and Music Algorithms in Mobile Radio Environment

Authors: Mustafa Abdalla, Khaled A. Madi, Rajab Farhat

Abstract:

An array antenna system with innovative signal processing can improve the resolution of a source direction of arrival (DoA) estimation. High resolution techniques take the advantage of array antenna structures to better process the incoming waves. They also have the capability to identify the direction of multiple targets. This paper investigates performance of the DOA estimation algorithm namely; Capon and MUSIC on the uniform linear array (ULA). The simulation results show that in Capon and MUSIC algorithm the resolution of the DOA techniques improves as number of snapshots, number of array elements, signal-to-noise ratio and separation angle between the two sources θ increases.

Keywords: Antenna array, Capon, MUSIC, Direction-of-arrival estimation, signal processing, uniform linear arrays.

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1002 Multi-Agent Searching Adaptation Using Levy Flight and Inferential Reasoning

Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe how to achieve knowledge understanding and prediction (Situation Awareness (SA)) for multiple-agents conducting searching activity using Bayesian inferential reasoning and learning. Bayesian Belief Network was used to monitor agents' knowledge about their environment, and cases are recorded for the network training using expectation-maximisation or gradient descent algorithm. The well trained network will be used for decision making and environmental situation prediction. Forest fire searching by multiple UAVs was the use case. UAVs are tasked to explore a forest and find a fire for urgent actions by the fire wardens. The paper focused on two problems: (i) effective agents’ path planning strategy and (ii) knowledge understanding and prediction (SA). The path planning problem by inspiring animal mode of foraging using Lévy distribution augmented with Bayesian reasoning was fully described in this paper. Results proof that the Lévy flight strategy performs better than the previous fixed-pattern (e.g., parallel sweeps) approaches in terms of energy and time utilisation. We also introduced a waypoint assessment strategy called k-previous waypoints assessment. It improves the performance of the ordinary levy flight by saving agent’s resources and mission time through redundant search avoidance. The agents (UAVs) are to report their mission knowledge at the central server for interpretation and prediction purposes. Bayesian reasoning and learning were used for the SA and results proof effectiveness in different environments scenario in terms of prediction and effective knowledge representation. The prediction accuracy was measured using learning error rate, logarithm loss, and Brier score and the result proves that little agents mission that can be used for prediction within the same or different environment. Finally, we described a situation-based knowledge visualization and prediction technique for heterogeneous multi-UAV mission. While this paper proves linkage of Bayesian reasoning and learning with SA and effective searching strategy, future works is focusing on simplifying the architecture.

Keywords: Lèvy flight, situation awareness, multi-agent system, multi-robot coordination, autonomous system, swarm intelligence.

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1001 Effect of Soil Corrosion in Failures of Buried Gas Pipelines

Authors: Saima Ali, Pathamanathan Rajeev, Imteaz A. Monzur

Abstract:

In this paper, a brief review of the corrosion mechanism in buried pipe and modes of failure is provided together with the available corrosion models. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the influence of corrosion model parameters on the remaining life estimation. Further, the probabilistic analysis is performed to propagate the uncertainty in the corrosion model on the estimation of the renaming life of the pipe. Finally, the comparison among the corrosion models on the basis of the remaining life estimation will be provided to improve the renewal plan.

Keywords: Corrosion, pit depth, sensitivity analysis, exposure period.

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1000 EML-Estimation of Multivariate t Copulas with Heuristic Optimization

Authors: Jin Zhang, Wing Lon Ng

Abstract:

In recent years, copulas have become very popular in financial research and actuarial science as they are more flexible in modelling the co-movements and relationships of risk factors as compared to the conventional linear correlation coefficient by Pearson. However, a precise estimation of the copula parameters is vital in order to correctly capture the (possibly nonlinear) dependence structure and joint tail events. In this study, we employ two optimization heuristics, namely Differential Evolution and Threshold Accepting to tackle the parameter estimation of multivariate t distribution models in the EML approach. Since the evolutionary optimizer does not rely on gradient search, the EML approach can be applied to estimation of more complicated copula models such as high-dimensional copulas. Our experimental study shows that the proposed method provides more robust and more accurate estimates as compared to the IFM approach.

Keywords: Copula Models, Student t Copula, Parameter Inference, Differential Evolution, Threshold Accepting.

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999 A Metric-Set and Model Suggestion for Better Software Project Cost Estimation

Authors: Murat Ayyıldız, Oya Kalıpsız, Sırma Yavuz

Abstract:

Software project effort estimation is frequently seen as complex and expensive for individual software engineers. Software production is in a crisis. It suffers from excessive costs. Software production is often out of control. It has been suggested that software production is out of control because we do not measure. You cannot control what you cannot measure. During last decade, a number of researches on cost estimation have been conducted. The metric-set selection has a vital role in software cost estimation studies; its importance has been ignored especially in neural network based studies. In this study we have explored the reasons of those disappointing results and implemented different neural network models using augmented new metrics. The results obtained are compared with previous studies using traditional metrics. To be able to make comparisons, two types of data have been used. The first part of the data is taken from the Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO'81) which is commonly used in previous studies and the second part is collected according to new metrics in a leading international company in Turkey. The accuracy of the selected metrics and the data samples are verified using statistical techniques. The model presented here is based on Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). Another difficulty associated with the cost estimation studies is the fact that the data collection requires time and care. To make a more thorough use of the samples collected, k-fold, cross validation method is also implemented. It is concluded that, as long as an accurate and quantifiable set of metrics are defined and measured correctly, neural networks can be applied in software cost estimation studies with success

Keywords: Software Metrics, Software Cost Estimation, Neural Network.

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998 Comparative Analysis of the Software Effort Estimation Models

Authors: Jaswinder Kaur, Satwinder Singh, Karanjeet Singh Kahlon

Abstract:

Accurate software cost estimates are critical to both developers and customers. They can be used for generating request for proposals, contract negotiations, scheduling, monitoring and control. The exact relationship between the attributes of the effort estimation is difficult to establish. A neural network is good at discovering relationships and pattern in the data. So, in this paper a comparative analysis among existing Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model and Neural Network Based Model is performed. Neural Network has outperformed the other considered models. Hence, we proposed Neural Network system as a soft computing approach to model the effort estimation of the software systems.

Keywords: Effort Estimation, Neural Network, Halstead Model, Walston-Felix Model, Bailey-Basili Model, Doty Model.

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997 Spread Spectrum Code Estimationby Particle Swarm Algorithm

Authors: Vahid R. Asghari, Mehrdad Ardebilipour

Abstract:

In the context of spectrum surveillance, a new method to recover the code of spread spectrum signal is presented, while the receiver has no knowledge of the transmitter-s spreading sequence. In our previous paper, we used Genetic algorithm (GA), to recover spreading code. Although genetic algorithms (GAs) are well known for their robustness in solving complex optimization problems, but nonetheless, by increasing the length of the code, we will often lead to an unacceptable slow convergence speed. To solve this problem we introduce Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) into code estimation in spread spectrum communication system. In searching process for code estimation, the PSO algorithm has the merits of rapid convergence to the global optimum, without being trapped in local suboptimum, and good robustness to noise. In this paper we describe how to implement PSO as a component of a searching algorithm in code estimation. Swarm intelligence boasts a number of advantages due to the use of mobile agents. Some of them are: Scalability, Fault tolerance, Adaptation, Speed, Modularity, Autonomy, and Parallelism. These properties make swarm intelligence very attractive for spread spectrum code estimation. They also make swarm intelligence suitable for a variety of other kinds of channels. Our results compare between swarm-based algorithms and Genetic algorithms, and also show PSO algorithm performance in code estimation process.

Keywords: Code estimation, Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO), Spread spectrum.

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996 Low-Complexity Channel Estimation Algorithm for MIMO-OFDM Systems

Authors: Ali Beydoun, Hamzé H. Alaeddine

Abstract:

One of the main challenges in MIMO-OFDM system to achieve the expected performances in terms of data rate and robustness against multi-path fading channels is the channel estimation. Several methods were proposed in the literature based on either least square (LS) or minimum mean squared error (MMSE) estimators. These methods present high implementation complexity as they require the inversion of large matrices. In order to overcome this problem and to reduce the complexity, this paper presents a solution that benefits from the use of the STBC encoder and transforms the channel estimation process into a set of simple linear operations. The proposed method is evaluated via simulation in AWGN-Rayleigh fading channel. Simulation results show a maximum reduction of 6.85% of the bit error rate (BER) compared to the one obtained with the ideal case where the receiver has a perfect knowledge of the channel.

Keywords: Channel estimation, MIMO, OFDM, STBC, CAZAC sequence.

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995 An Improved Algorithm for Channel Estimations of OFDM System based Pilot Signal

Authors: Ahmed N. H. Alnuaimy, Mahamod Ismail, Mohd. A. M. Ali, Kasmiran Jumari, Ayman A. El-Saleh

Abstract:

This paper presents a new algorithm for the channel estimation of the OFDM system based on a pilot signal for the new generation of high data rate communication systems. In orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) systems over fast-varying fading channels, channel estimation and tracking is generally carried out by transmitting known pilot symbols in given positions of the frequency-time grid. In this paper, we propose to derive an improved algorithm based on the calculation of the mean and the variance of the adjacent pilot signals for a specific distribution of the pilot signals in the OFDM frequency-time grid then calculating of the entire unknown channel coefficients from the equation of the mean and the variance. Simulation results shows that the performance of the OFDM system increase as the length of the channel increase where the accuracy of the estimated channel will be increased using this low complexity algorithm, also the number of the pilot signal needed to be inserted in the OFDM signal will be reduced which lead to increase in the throughput of the signal over the OFDM system in compared with other type of the distribution such as Comb type and Block type channel estimation.

Keywords: Channel estimation, orthogonal frequency divisionmultiplexing (OFDM), comb type channel estimation, block typechannel estimation.

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994 Bootstrap Confidence Intervals and Parameter Estimation for Zero Inflated Strict Arcsine Model

Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

Abstract:

Zero inflated Strict Arcsine model is a newly developed model which is found to be appropriate in modeling overdispersed count data. In this study, maximum likelihood estimation method is used in estimating the parameters for zero inflated strict arcsine model. Bootstrapping is then employed to compute the confidence intervals for the estimated parameters.

Keywords: overdispersed count data, maximum likelihood estimation, simulated annealing, BCa confidence intervals.

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993 Gaussian Particle Flow Bernoulli Filter for Single Target Tracking

Authors: Hyeongbok Kim, Lingling Zhao, Xiaohong Su, Junjie Wang

Abstract:

The Bernoulli filter is a precise Bayesian filter for single target tracking based on the random finite set theory. The standard Bernoulli filter often underestimates the number of the targets. This study proposes a Gaussian particle flow (GPF) Bernoulli filter employing particle flow to migrate particles from prior to posterior positions to improve the performance of the standard Bernoulli filter. By employing the particle flow filter, the computational speed of the Bernoulli filters is significantly improved. In addition, the GPF Bernoulli filter provides more accurate estimation compared with that of the standard Bernoulli filter. Simulation results confirm the improved tracking performance and computational speed in two- and three-dimensional scenarios compared with other algorithms.

Keywords: Bernoulli filter, particle filter, particle flow filter, random finite sets, target tracking.

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992 Bayesian Network Based Intelligent Pediatric System

Authors: Jagmohan Mago, Parvinder S. Sandhu, Neeru Chawla

Abstract:

In this paper, a Bayesian Network (BN) based system is presented for providing clinical decision support to healthcare practitioners in rural or remote areas of India for young infants or children up to the age of 5 years. The government is unable to appoint child specialists in rural areas because of inadequate number of available pediatricians. It leads to a high Infant Mortality Rate (IMR). In such a scenario, Intelligent Pediatric System provides a realistic solution. The prototype of an intelligent system has been developed that involves a knowledge component called an Intelligent Pediatric Assistant (IPA); and User Agents (UA) along with their Graphical User Interfaces (GUI). The GUI of UA provides the interface to the healthcare practitioner for submitting sign-symptoms and displaying the expert opinion as suggested by IPA. Depending upon the observations, the IPA decides the diagnosis and the treatment plan. The UA and IPA form client-server architecture for knowledge sharing.

Keywords: Network, Based Intelligent, Pediatric System

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991 Dynamic Bayesian Networks Modeling for Inferring Genetic Regulatory Networks by Search Strategy: Comparison between Greedy Hill Climbing and MCMC Methods

Authors: Huihai Wu, Xiaohui Liu

Abstract:

Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) to model genetic regulatory networks from gene expression data is one of the major paradigms for inferring the interactions among genes. Averaging a collection of models for predicting network is desired, rather than relying on a single high scoring model. In this paper, two kinds of model searching approaches are compared, which are Greedy hill-climbing Search with Restarts (GSR) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The GSR is preferred in many papers, but there is no such comparison study about which one is better for DBN models. Different types of experiments have been carried out to try to give a benchmark test to these approaches. Our experimental results demonstrated that on average the MCMC methods outperform the GSR in accuracy of predicted network, and having the comparable performance in time efficiency. By proposing the different variations of MCMC and employing simulated annealing strategy, the MCMC methods become more efficient and stable. Apart from comparisons between these approaches, another objective of this study is to investigate the feasibility of using DBN modeling approaches for inferring gene networks from few snapshots of high dimensional gene profiles. Through synthetic data experiments as well as systematic data experiments, the experimental results revealed how the performances of these approaches can be influenced as the target gene network varies in the network size, data size, as well as system complexity.

Keywords: Genetic regulatory network, Dynamic Bayesian network, GSR, MCMC.

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990 Faults Forecasting System

Authors: Hanaa E.Sayed, Hossam A. Gabbar, Shigeji Miyazaki

Abstract:

This paper presents Faults Forecasting System (FFS) that utilizes statistical forecasting techniques in analyzing process variables data in order to forecast faults occurrences. FFS is proposing new idea in detecting faults. Current techniques used in faults detection are based on analyzing the current status of the system variables in order to check if the current status is fault or not. FFS is using forecasting techniques to predict future timing for faults before it happens. Proposed model is applying subset modeling strategy and Bayesian approach in order to decrease dimensionality of the process variables and improve faults forecasting accuracy. A practical experiment, designed and implemented in Okayama University, Japan, is implemented, and the comparison shows that our proposed model is showing high forecasting accuracy and BEFORE-TIME.

Keywords: Bayesian Techniques, Faults Detection, Forecasting techniques, Multivariate Analysis.

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989 Performances Comparison of Neural Architectures for On-Line Speed Estimation in Sensorless IM Drives

Authors: K.Sedhuraman, S.Himavathi, A.Muthuramalingam

Abstract:

The performance of sensor-less controlled induction motor drive depends on the accuracy of the estimated speed. Conventional estimation techniques being mathematically complex require more execution time resulting in poor dynamic response. The nonlinear mapping capability and powerful learning algorithms of neural network provides a promising alternative for on-line speed estimation. The on-line speed estimator requires the NN model to be accurate, simpler in design, structurally compact and computationally less complex to ensure faster execution and effective control in real time implementation. This in turn to a large extent depends on the type of Neural Architecture. This paper investigates three types of neural architectures for on-line speed estimation and their performance is compared in terms of accuracy, structural compactness, computational complexity and execution time. The suitable neural architecture for on-line speed estimation is identified and the promising results obtained are presented.

Keywords: Sensorless IM drives, rotor speed estimators, artificial neural network, feed- forward architecture, single neuron cascaded architecture.

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988 Estimation of Component Reusability through Reusability Metrics

Authors: Aditya Pratap Singh, Pradeep Tomar

Abstract:

Software reusability is an essential characteristic of Component-Based Software (CBS). The component reusability is an important assess for the effective reuse of components in CBS. The attributes of reusability proposed by various researchers are studied and four of them are identified as potential factors affecting reusability. This paper proposes metric for reusability estimation of black-box software component along with metrics for Interface Complexity, Understandability, Customizability and Reliability. An experiment is performed for estimation of reusability through a case study on a sample web application using a real world component.

Keywords: Component-based software, component reusability, customizability, interface complexity, reliability, understandability.

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987 Distributed Estimation Using an Improved Incremental Distributed LMS Algorithm

Authors: Amir Rastegarnia, Mohammad Ali Tinati, Azam Khalili

Abstract:

In this paper we consider the problem of distributed adaptive estimation in wireless sensor networks for two different observation noise conditions. In the first case, we assume that there are some sensors with high observation noise variance (noisy sensors) in the network. In the second case, different variance for observation noise is assumed among the sensors which is more close to real scenario. In both cases, an initial estimate of each sensor-s observation noise is obtained. For the first case, we show that when there are such sensors in the network, the performance of conventional distributed adaptive estimation algorithms such as incremental distributed least mean square (IDLMS) algorithm drastically decreases. In addition, detecting and ignoring these sensors leads to a better performance in a sense of estimation. In the next step, we propose a simple algorithm to detect theses noisy sensors and modify the IDLMS algorithm to deal with noisy sensors. For the second case, we propose a new algorithm in which the step-size parameter is adjusted for each sensor according to its observation noise variance. As the simulation results show, the proposed methods outperforms the IDLMS algorithm in the same condition.

Keywords: Distributes estimation, sensor networks, adaptive filter, IDLMS.

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986 Unsupervised Segmentation by Hidden Markov Chain with Bi-dimensional Observed Process

Authors: Abdelali Joumad, Abdelaziz Nasroallah

Abstract:

In unsupervised segmentation context, we propose a bi-dimensional hidden Markov chain model (X,Y) that we adapt to the image segmentation problem. The bi-dimensional observed process Y = (Y 1, Y 2) is such that Y 1 represents the noisy image and Y 2 represents a noisy supplementary information on the image, for example a noisy proportion of pixels of the same type in a neighborhood of the current pixel. The proposed model can be seen as a competitive alternative to the Hilbert-Peano scan. We propose a bayesian algorithm to estimate parameters of the considered model. The performance of this algorithm is globally favorable, compared to the bi-dimensional EM algorithm through numerical and visual data.

Keywords: Image segmentation, Hidden Markov chain with a bi-dimensional observed process, Peano-Hilbert scan, Bayesian approach, MCMC methods, Bi-dimensional EM algorithm.

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985 A Reasoning Method of Cyber-Attack Attribution Based on Threat Intelligence

Authors: Li Qiang, Yang Ze-Ming, Liu Bao-Xu, Jiang Zheng-Wei

Abstract:

With the increasing complexity of cyberspace security, the cyber-attack attribution has become an important challenge of the security protection systems. The difficult points of cyber-attack attribution were forced on the problems of huge data handling and key data missing. According to this situation, this paper presented a reasoning method of cyber-attack attribution based on threat intelligence. The method utilizes the intrusion kill chain model and Bayesian network to build attack chain and evidence chain of cyber-attack on threat intelligence platform through data calculation, analysis and reasoning. Then, we used a number of cyber-attack events which we have observed and analyzed to test the reasoning method and demo system, the result of testing indicates that the reasoning method can provide certain help in cyber-attack attribution.

Keywords: Reasoning, Bayesian networks, cyber-attack attribution, kill chain, threat intelligence.

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984 Development of Cooling Demand by Computerize

Authors: Bobby Anak John, Zamri Noranai, Md. Norrizam Mohmad Jaat, Hamidon Salleh, Mohammad Zainal Md Yusof

Abstract:

Air conditioning is mainly use as human comfort cooling medium. It use more in high temperatures are country such as Malaysia. Proper estimation of cooling load will archive ideal temperature. Without proper estimation can lead to over estimation or under estimation. The ideal temperature should be comfort enough. This study is to develop a program to calculate an ideal cooling load demand, which is match with heat gain. Through this study, it is easy to calculate cooling load estimation. Objective of this study are to develop user-friendly and easy excess cooling load program. This is to insure the cooling load can be estimate by any of the individual rather than them using rule-of-thumb. Developed software is carryout by using Matlab-GUI. These developments are only valid for common building in Malaysia only. An office building was select as case study to verify the applicable and accuracy of develop software. In conclusion, the main objective has successfully where developed software is user friendly and easily to estimate cooling load demand.

Keywords: Cooling Load, Heat Gain, Building and GUI.

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983 Craniometric Analysis of Foramen Magnum for Estimation of Sex

Authors: Tanuj Kanchan, Anadi Gupta, Kewal Krishan

Abstract:

Human skull is shown to exhibit numerous sexually dimorphic traits. Estimation of sex is a challenging task especially when a part of skull is brought for medicolegal investigation. The present research was planned to evaluate the sexing potential of the dimensions of foramen magnum in forensic identification by craniometric analysis. Length and breadth of the foramen magnum was measured using Vernier calipers and the area of foramen magnum was calculated. The length, breadth, and area of foramen magnum were found to be larger in males than females. Sexual dimorphism index was calculated to estimate the sexing potential of each variable. The study observations are suggestive of the limited utility of the craniometric analysis of foramen magnum during the examination of skull and its parts in estimation of sex.

Keywords: Forensic Anthropology, Skeletal remains, Identification, Sex estimation, Foramen magnum.

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982 Bayes Net Classifiers for Prediction of Renal Graft Status and Survival Period

Authors: Jiakai Li, Gursel Serpen, Steven Selman, Matt Franchetti, Mike Riesen, Cynthia Schneider

Abstract:

This paper presents the development of a Bayesian belief network classifier for prediction of graft status and survival period in renal transplantation using the patient profile information prior to the transplantation. The objective was to explore feasibility of developing a decision making tool for identifying the most suitable recipient among the candidate pool members. The dataset was compiled from the University of Toledo Medical Center Hospital patients as reported to the United Network Organ Sharing, and had 1228 patient records for the period covering 1987 through 2009. The Bayes net classifiers were developed using the Weka machine learning software workbench. Two separate classifiers were induced from the data set, one to predict the status of the graft as either failed or living, and a second classifier to predict the graft survival period. The classifier for graft status prediction performed very well with a prediction accuracy of 97.8% and true positive values of 0.967 and 0.988 for the living and failed classes, respectively. The second classifier to predict the graft survival period yielded a prediction accuracy of 68.2% and a true positive rate of 0.85 for the class representing those instances with kidneys failing during the first year following transplantation. Simulation results indicated that it is feasible to develop a successful Bayesian belief network classifier for prediction of graft status, but not the graft survival period, using the information in UNOS database.

Keywords: Bayesian network classifier, renal transplantation, graft survival period, United Network for Organ Sharing

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981 Change Detection and Non Stationary Signals Tracking by Adaptive Filtering

Authors: Mounira RouaÐùnia, Noureddine Doghmane

Abstract:

In this paper we consider the problem of change detection and non stationary signals tracking. Using parametric estimation of signals based on least square lattice adaptive filters we consider for change detection statistical parametric methods using likelihood ratio and hypothesis tests. In order to track signals dynamics, we introduce a compensation procedure in the adaptive estimation. This will improve the adaptive estimation performances and fasten it-s convergence after changes detection.

Keywords: Change detection, Hypothesis test, likelihood ratioleast square lattice adaptive filters.

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980 Performance Analysis of MUSIC, Root-MUSIC and ESPRIT DOA Estimation Algorithm

Authors: N. P. Waweru, D. B. O. Konditi, P. K. Langat

Abstract:

Direction of Arrival estimation refers to defining a mathematical function called a pseudospectrum that gives an indication of the angle a signal is impinging on the antenna array. This estimation is an efficient method of improving the quality of service in a communication system by focusing the reception and transmission only in the estimated direction thereby increasing fidelity with a provision to suppress interferers. This improvement is largely dependent on the performance of the algorithm employed in the estimation. Many DOA algorithms exists amongst which are MUSIC, Root-MUSIC and ESPRIT. In this paper, performance of these three algorithms is analyzed in terms of complexity, accuracy as assessed and characterized by the CRLB and memory requirements in various environments and array sizes. It is found that the three algorithms are high resolution and dependent on the operating environment and the array size. 

Keywords: Direction of Arrival, Autocorrelation matrix, Eigenvalue decomposition, MUSIC, ESPRIT, CRLB.

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979 Kalman Filter Gain Elimination in Linear Estimation

Authors: Nicholas D. Assimakis

Abstract:

In linear estimation, the traditional Kalman filter uses the Kalman filter gain in order to produce estimation and prediction of the n-dimensional state vector using the m-dimensional measurement vector. The computation of the Kalman filter gain requires the inversion of an m x m matrix in every iteration. In this paper, a variation of the Kalman filter eliminating the Kalman filter gain is proposed. In the time varying case, the elimination of the Kalman filter gain requires the inversion of an n x n matrix and the inversion of an m x m matrix in every iteration. In the time invariant case, the elimination of the Kalman filter gain requires the inversion of an n x n matrix in every iteration. The proposed Kalman filter gain elimination algorithm may be faster than the conventional Kalman filter, depending on the model dimensions.

Keywords: Discrete time, linear estimation, Kalman filter, Kalman filter gain.

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978 Learning User Keystroke Patterns for Authentication

Authors: Ying Zhao

Abstract:

Keystroke authentication is a new access control system to identify legitimate users via their typing behavior. In this paper, machine learning techniques are adapted for keystroke authentication. Seven learning methods are used to build models to differentiate user keystroke patterns. The selected classification methods are Decision Tree, Naive Bayesian, Instance Based Learning, Decision Table, One Rule, Random Tree and K-star. Among these methods, three of them are studied in more details. The results show that machine learning is a feasible alternative for keystroke authentication. Compared to the conventional Nearest Neighbour method in the recent research, learning methods especially Decision Tree can be more accurate. In addition, the experiment results reveal that 3-Grams is more accurate than 2-Grams and 4-Grams for feature extraction. Also, combination of attributes tend to result higher accuracy.

Keywords: Keystroke Authentication, Pattern recognition, MachineLearning, Instance-based Learning, Bayesian, Decision Tree.

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