Search results for: MRMC State unification Variable Prediction (MRSUP)

Authors: Xin Luo, Jin Huang, Pan Cheng

Abstract:

By means of Sidi-Israeli’s quadrature rules, mechanical quadrature methods (MQMs) for solving the first kind boundary integral equations (BIEs) of steady state Stokes problem are presented. The convergence of numerical solutions by MQMs is proved based on Anselone’s collective compact and asymptotical compact theory, and the asymptotic expansions with the odd powers of the errors are provided, which implies that the accuracy of the approximations by MQMs possesses high accuracy order O (h3). Finally, the numerical examples show the efficiency of our methods.

Keywords: Stokes problem, boundary integral equation, mechanical quadrature methods, asymptotic expansions.

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Authors: R. Mofeed, N. Elgendy

Abstract:

Cinema constructs mind-spaces that reflect inherent human thoughts and emotions. As a representational art, Cinema would introduce comprehensive images of life phenomena in different ways. The term “represent” suggests verity of meanings; bring into presence, replace or typify. In that sense, Cinema may present a phenomenon through direct embodiment, or introduce a substitute image that replaces the original phenomena, or typify it by relating the produced image to a more general category through a process of abstraction. This research is interested in questioning the type of images that Egyptian Cinema introduces to informal urbanism and how these images were conditioned and reshaped in the last twenty years. The informalities/slums phenomenon first appeared in Egypt and, particularly, Cairo in the early sixties, however, this phenomenon was completely ignored by the state and society until the eighties, and furthermore, its evident representation in Cinema was by the mid-nineties. The Informal City represents the illegal housing developments, and it is a fast growing form of urbanization in Cairo. Yet, this expanding phenomenon is still depicted as the minority, exceptional and marginal through the Cinematic lenses. This paper aims at tracing the forms of representations of the urban informalities in the Egyptian Cinema between 1994 and 2014, and how did that affect the popular mind and its perception of these areas. The paper runs two main lines of inquiry; the first traces the phenomena through a chronological and geographical mapping of the informal urbanism has been portrayed in films. This analysis is based on an academic research work at Cairo University in Fall 2014. The visual tracing through maps and timelines allowed a reading of the phases of ignorance, presence, typifying and repetition in the representation of this huge sector of the city through more than 50 films that has been investigated. The analysis clearly revealed the “portrayed image” of informality by the Cinema through the examined period. However, the second part of the paper explores the “perceived image”. A designed questionnaire is applied to highlight the main features of that image that is perceived by both inhabitants of informalities and other Cairenes based on watching selected films. The questionnaire covers the different images of informalities proposed in the Cinema whether in a comic or a melodramatic background and highlight the descriptive terms used, to see which of them resonate with the mass perceptions and affected their mental images. The two images; “portrayed” and “perceived” are then to be encountered to reflect on issues of repetitions, stereotyping and reality. The formulated stereotype of informal urbanism is finally outlined and justified in relation to both production consumption mechanisms of films and the State official vision of informalities.

Keywords: Cairo, cinema, informal urbanism, representation, stereotype.

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Authors: Daniel Kade, Oğuzhan Özcan, Rikard Lindell

Abstract:

Motion capturing technology has been used for quite a while and several research has been done within this area. Nevertheless, we discovered open issues within current motion capturing environments. In this paper we provide a state-of-the-art overview of the addressed research areas and show issues with current motion capturing environments. Observations, interviews and questionnaires have been used to reveal the challenges actors are currently facing in a motion capturing environment. Furthermore, the idea to create a more immersive motion capturing environment to improve the acting performances and motion capturing outcomes as a potential solution is introduced. It is hereby the goal to explain the found open issues and the developed ideas which shall serve for further research as a basis. Moreover, a methodology to address the interaction and systems design issues is proposed. A future outcome could be that motion capture actors are able to perform more naturally, especially if using a non-body-worn solution.

Keywords: Immersive acting environment, Interaction in a mediated environment, Motion capturing, MoCap.

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Authors: T. Saarelainen, O. Piha, P. Makkonen, J. Orkas

Abstract:

Global competition is tightening and companies have to think how to remain competitive. The main aim of this paper is to discuss how Finnish foundries will remain competitive. To fulfil the aim, we conducted interviews in nine companies using castings and analysed buyer–supplier relationships, current competitive advantages of Finnish foundries and customer perspectives on how Finnish foundries remain competitive. We found that the customerfoundry relationship is still closer to traditional subcontracting than partnering and general image of foundries is negative. Current competitive advantages of Finnish foundries include designing cooperation, proximity and flexibility. Casting users state that Finnish foundries should sell their know-how and services instead of their capacity, concentrate on prototype, single and short series castings and supply ready-to-install cast components directly to customers- assembly lines.

Keywords: Buyer-supplier relationship, casting, competitiveadvantage, customer prespective.

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Authors: O. O. Olawusi-Peters, O. E. Aguda, F. O. Okoye

Abstract:

Investigations on the accumulation of heavy metals in water and sediments of river Ogbese were carried out between December 2010 and February 2011 using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer. Etheria elliptica a sessile organism was also used to determine the concentration of heavy metal in the aquatic environmental. In water, Cu had the highest concentration (0.55 – 0.13 mg/l ±0.1) while in sediments, the highest value obtained was in Fe (1.46-3.89mg/l±0.27). The minimum concentrations recorded were in Pb; which was below detectable level. The result also revealed that the shell accumulate more heavy metals than the flesh of the mussel with Cu in the shell exhibiting a negative correlation with all the metals in the flesh. However, the condition factor (K) value is 6.44, an indication of good health. The length-weight relationship is expressed as W = -0.48 x L 1.94 (r2 = 0.29) showing the growth pattern to be negatively allometric.

Keywords: Condition factor, Etheria elliptica, heavy metals, River Ogbese.

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Authors: Treepon Kirdnark

Abstract:

This paper examines the depiction of Muslim militants in Thai newspapers in 2004. Stuart Hall-s “representation" and “public idioms" are used as theoretical frameworks. Critical Discourse Analysis is employed as a methodology to examine 240 news articles from two leading Thai language newspapers. The results show that the militants are usually labeled as “southern bandits." This suggests that they are just a culprit of the violence in the deep south of Thailand. They are usually described as people who cause turbulence. Consequently, the military have to get rid of them. However, other aspects of the groups such as their political agenda or the failures of the Thai state in dealing with the Malay Muslims were not mention in the news stories. In the time of violence, the researcher argues that this kind of newspaper coverage may help perpetuate the discourse of Malay Muslim, instead of providing fuller picture of the ongoing conflicts.

Keywords: News Discourse, Newspapers, Thailand, Thai Muslims.

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Authors: Hirotaka Watanabe, Takaaki Kondo, Daiki Yoshida, Ariyoshi Nakayama, Taichi Sato, Shuhei Kuriyama, Hiroyuki Kamata

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a chaotic cipher system consisting of Improved Volterra Filters and the mapping that is created from the actual voice by using Radial Basis Function Network. In order to achieve a practical system, the system supposes to use the digital communication line, such as the Internet, to maintain the parameter matching between the transmitter and receiver sides. Therefore, in order to withstand the attack from outside, it is necessary that complicate the internal state and improve the sensitivity coefficient. In this paper, we validate the robustness of proposed method from three perspectives of "Chaotic properties", "Randomness", "Coefficient sensitivity".

Keywords: Chaos cipher, 16-bit-length fixed point arithmetic, Volterra filter, Seacret communications, RBF Network

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Authors: Bian Cheng Xiang, Wang Qian

Abstract:

With the deepening of the research on the connotation of cultural heritage and human geography, cultural landscape takes landscape as a cultural product, integrates and blends cultural and natural heritage to explore the cultural value behind its material landscape. Qikou ancient town is a typical traditional settlement with homomorphism of mountain and water veins. Its cultural accumulation and natural landscape play an important role in its development. Therefore, this paper will combine the material and cultural elements of Qikou ancient town to analyze the composition of the cultural landscape of the ancient town, and explore the protection and utilization of the cultural landscape of Qikou ancient town from the four aspects of ecology, form, cultural form and business form, so as to provide effective strategies for the development of the ancient town.

Keywords: Four states, cultural landscape, ancient town, sustainable development.

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Authors: Joanne Muscat

Abstract:

The study explored the question of who am I? As a (re)construction of cultural identity by delving into globalization, communication, and social change in Malta during a historical moment when Malta became a European Union Member State. Three objectives guided this qualitative study. Firstly the study reviewed European Union (EU) policies that regulate broadcasting and their implementation in Member States, whilst meeting the challenges of globalization and new media technology. Secondly the research investigated the changes of the media landscape via organizational structures, programs and television (TV) content. Finally the study explored the impact of these transformations taking place in the way Maltese live as they (re)construct their cultural identity. Despite the choices available to the Maltese audience, old local traditions and new foreign customs coexist as informants continue to (re)construct their cultural identity and define who they are.

Keywords: Cultural Identity, Globalization, Transnational Media.

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Authors: Hongyu Wei, Wenliang Chen, Lin Gao

Abstract:

Incremental forming is a complex forming process with continuously local cumulative deformation taking place during its process, and springback that forming quality affected by would occur. The springback evaluation method based on forming error compensation also was proposed, which it can be defined as the difference between theory and the actual amount of compensation along the measured direction. According to forming error compensation evaluation method, experiments was designed and implemented. And from the results that obtained it can be show, the magnitude of springback average (δE) of formed parts was very small, and the forming precision could be significantly improved by adopting compensation method. Based on double tensile stress state in the main deformation area, a hypothesis that there is little springback be arisen by bending behavior on the formed parts that was proposed.

Keywords: Sheet metal, incremental forming, springback, forming error compensation, geometric accuracy

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Authors: Thaweesak Yingthawornsuk, Chusak Thanawattano

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Acoustical properties of speech have been shown to be related to mental states of speaker with symptoms: depression and remission. This paper describes way to address the issue of distinguishing depressed patients from remitted subjects based on measureable acoustics change of their spoken sound. The vocal-tract related frequency characteristics of speech samples from female remitted and depressed patients were analyzed via speech processing techniques and consequently, evaluated statistically by cross-validation with Support Vector Machine. Our results comparatively show the classifier's performance with effectively correct separation of 93% determined from testing with the subjectbased feature model and 88% from the frame-based model based on the same speech samples collected from hospital visiting interview sessions between patients and psychiatrists.

Keywords: Depression, SVM, Vocal Extract, Vocal Tract

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Authors: K. Boualem, T. Yahiaoui, A. Azzi

Abstract:

Numerical investigations are performed to analyze the flow behavior over NACA0015 and to evaluate the efficiency of synthetic jet as active control device. The second objective of this work is to investigate the influence of momentum coefficient of synthetic jet on the flow behaviour. The unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations of the turbulent flow are solved using, k-ω SST provided by ANSYS CFX-CFD code. The model presented in this paper is a comprehensive representation of the information found in the literature. Comparison of obtained numerical flow parameters with the experimental ones shows that the adopted computational procedure reflects nearly the real flow nature. Also, numerical results state that use of synthetic jets devices has positive effects on the flow separation, and thus, aerodynamic performance improvement of NACA0015 airfoil. It can also be observed that the use of synthetic jet increases the lift coefficient about 13.3% and reduces the drag coefficient about 52.7%.

Keywords: Active control, CFD, NACA airfoil, synthetic jet.

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Authors: Jung–Min Yang

Abstract:

Solvability of the model matching problem for input/output switched asynchronous sequential machines is discussed in this paper. The control objective is to determine the existence condition and design algorithm for a corrective controller that can match the stable-state behavior of the closed-loop system to that of a reference model. Switching operations and correction procedures are incorporated using output feedback so that the controlled switched machine can show the desired input/output behavior. A matrix expression is presented to address reachability of switched asynchronous sequential machines with output equivalence with respect to a model. The presented reachability condition for the controller design is validated in a simple example.

Keywords: Asynchronous sequential machines, corrective control, model matching, input/output control.

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Authors: Wudhichai Assawinchaichote

Abstract:

This paper examines the problem of designing robust H controllers for for HIV/AIDS infection system with dual drug dosages described by a Takagi-Sugeno (S) fuzzy model. Based on a linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach, we develop an H controller which guarantees the L2-gain of the mapping from the exogenous input noise to the regulated output to be less than some prescribed value for the system. A sufficient condition of the controller for this system is given in term of Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs). The effectiveness of the proposed controller design methodology is finally demonstrated through simulation results. It has been shown that the anti-HIV vaccines are critically important in reducing the infected cells.

Keywords: H∞ Fuzzy control; Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy model; Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs); HIV/AIDS infection system

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Authors: Muhammad M. A. S. Mahmoud

Abstract:

Natural gas sweetening process is a controlled process that must be done at maximum efficiency and with the highest quality. In this work, due to complexity and non-linearity of the process, the H2S gas separation and the intelligent fuzzy controller, which is used to enhance the process, are simulated in MATLAB – Simulink. New design of fuzzy control for Gas Separator is discussed in this paper. The design is based on the utilization of linear state-estimation to generate the internal knowledge-base that stores input-output pairs. The obtained input/output pairs are then used to design a feedback fuzzy controller. The proposed closed-loop fuzzy control system maintains the system asymptotically-stability while it enhances the system time response to achieve better control of the concentration of the output gas from the tower. Simulation studies are carried out to illustrate the Gas Separator system performance.

Keywords: Gas separator, gas sweetening, intelligent controller, fuzzy control.

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Authors: A. Abbou, H. Mahmoudi, M. Akherraz

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In contrast to conventional generators, self-excited induction generators are found to be most suitable machines for wind energy conversion in remote and windy areas due to many advantages over grid connected machines. This papers presents a Self-Excited Induction Generator (SEIG) driven by wind turbine and supplying an induction motor which is coupled to a centrifugal pump. A method to describe the steady state performance based on nodal analysis is presented. Therefore the advanced knowledge of the minimum excitation capacitor value is required. The effects of variation of excitation capacitance on system and rotor speed under different loading conditions have been analyzed and considered to optimize induction motor pump performances.

Keywords: SEIG, Induction Motor, Centrifugal Pump, capacitance requirements, wind rotor speed.

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Authors: F. Roger, A. Traidia, B. Reynier

Abstract:

Arc welding creates a weld pool to realize continuity between pieces of assembly. The thermal history of the weld is dependent on heat transfer and fluid flow in the weld pool. The metallurgical transformation during welding and cooling are modeled in the literature only at solid state neglecting the fluid flow. In the present paper we associate a heat transfer – fluid flow and metallurgical model for the 16MnD5 steel. The metallurgical transformation model is based on Leblond model for the diffusion kinetics and on the Koistinen-Marburger equation for Marteniste transformation. The predicted thermal history and metallurgical transformations are compared to a simulation without fluid phase. This comparison shows the great importance of the fluid flow modeling.

Keywords: Arc welding, Weld pool, Fluid flow, Metallurgical transformations.

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Authors: Svitov David, Alyamkin Sergey

Abstract:

The usage of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in conjunction with the margin-based softmax approach demonstrates the state-of-the-art performance for the face recognition problem. Recently, lightweight neural network models trained with the margin-based softmax have been introduced for the face identification task for edge devices. In this paper, we propose a distillation method for lightweight neural network architectures that outperforms other known methods for the face recognition task on LFW, AgeDB-30 and Megaface datasets. The idea of the proposed method is to use class centers from the teacher network for the student network. Then the student network is trained to get the same angles between the class centers and face embeddings predicted by the teacher network.

Keywords: ArcFace, distillation, face recognition, margin-based softmax.

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Authors: Md Tasbirul Islam, Pablo Dias, Nazmul Huda

Abstract:

E-waste/Waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) is one of the fastest growing waste streams across the globe. This paper aims to compare the e-waste management system in Switzerland and Australia in terms of four features - legislative initiatives, disposal practice, collection and financial mechanisms. The qualitative content analysis is employed as a research method in the study. Data were collected from various published academic research papers, industry reports, and web sources. In addition, a questionnaire survey is conducted in Australia to understand the public awareness and opinions on the features. The results of the study provide valuable insights to policymakers in Australia developing better e-waste management system in conjunction with the public consensus, and the state-of-the-art operational strategies currently being practiced in Switzerland.

Keywords: E-waste management, WEEE, awareness, pro-environmental behavior, Australia, Switzerland.

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Authors: G. Schuh, S. Aghassi

Abstract:

In order to bridge the gap between research and industry, promoting technology and knowledge transfer becomes increasingly important. Especially small- and medium-sized enterprises, having only little R&D resources themselves, depend on external technology development activities for remaining innovative. Academia research on the other hand needs potential industrial partners, who are capable and willing to commercialize their technologies as most public funding programs require some sort of technology transfer or dissemination activities. Modern web technologies offer more and more “social” functionalities and open up new ways of user interaction. In the past years several technology transfer platforms were developed, making use of modern web technologies in order to enable and support technology transfer. In this paper we report on the results of a state-of-the art analyses of existing technology transfer platforms, point out their advantages and deficits and give a perspective to the development of an improved technology transfer platform.

Keywords: Knowledge transfer, social software, technology management, technology transfer.

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Authors: Behrouz Mosayebi Dehkordi, Frazaneh Hashemi, Ramin Mostafazadeh

Abstract:

Fick's second law equations for unsteady state diffusion of salt into the potato tissues were solved numerically. The set of equations resulted from implicit modeling were solved using Thomas method to find the salt concentration profiles in solid phase. The needed effective diffusivity and equilibrium distribution coefficient were determined experimentally. Cylindrical samples of potato were infused with aqueous NaCl solutions of 1-3% concentrations, and variations in salt concentrations of brine were determined over time. Solute concentrations profiles of samples were determined by measuring salt uptake of potato slices. For the studied conditions, equilibrium distribution coefficients were found to be dependent on salt concentrations, whereas the effective diffusivity was slightly affected by brine concentration.

Keywords: Brine, Diffusion, Diffusivity, Modeling, Potato

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Authors: Hiromitsu Ogawa, Manato Ono, Naohiro Ban, Yoshihisa Ishida

Abstract:

This paper describes the two stage control using a disturbance observer and a Kalman filter. The system feedback uses the estimated state when it controls the speed. After the change-over point, its feedback uses the controlled plant output when it controls the position. To change the system continually, a change-over point has to be determined pertinently, and the controlled plant input has to be adjusted by the addition of the appropriate value. The proposed method has noise-reduction effect. It changes the system continually, even if the controlled plant identification has the error. Although the conventional method needs a speed sensor, the proposed method does not need it. The proposed method has a superior robustness compared with the conventional two stage control.

Keywords: Disturbance observer, kalman filter, optimal control, two stage control.

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Authors: Aina Xu, Hongfang Ma, Haitao Zhang, Weiyong Ying, Dingye Fang

Abstract:

Hydrothermally synthesized high silica borosilicates with the MFI structure was subjected to several characterization techniques. The effect of boron on the structure and acidity of HZSM-5 catalyst were studied by XRD, SEM, N2 adsorption, solid state NMR, NH3-TPD. It was confirmed that boron had entered the framework in the boron samples. The results also revealed that strong acidity was weakened and weak acidity was strengthened by the boron added zeolite framework compared with parent catalyst. The catalytic performance was carried out in a fixed bed at 460°C for methanol to propylene (MTP) reaction. The results of MTP reaction showed a great increment of the propylene selectivity and excellent stability for the B-HZSM-5. The catalyst exhibited about 81% selectivity to C2 = - C4 = olefins with 40% selectivity of propylene as major component at near 100% methanol conversion, and the stable performance in the studied period was 100h.

Keywords: Methanol to propylene, HZSM-5, boron.

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Authors: Chun-Lang Chang

Abstract:

According to the statistics, the prevalence of congenital hearing loss in Taiwan is approximately six thousandths; furthermore, one thousandths of infants have severe hearing impairment. Hearing ability during infancy has significant impact in the development of children-s oral expressions, language maturity, cognitive performance, education ability and social behaviors in the future. Although most children born with hearing impairment have sensorineural hearing loss, almost every child more or less still retains some residual hearing. If provided with a hearing aid or cochlear implant (a bionic ear) timely in addition to hearing speech training, even severely hearing-impaired children can still learn to talk. On the other hand, those who failed to be diagnosed and thus unable to begin hearing and speech rehabilitations on a timely manner might lose an important opportunity to live a complete and healthy life. Eventually, the lack of hearing and speaking ability will affect the development of both mental and physical functions, intelligence, and social adaptability. Not only will this problem result in an irreparable regret to the hearing-impaired child for the life time, but also create a heavy burden for the family and society. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a set of computer-assisted predictive model that can accurately detect and help diagnose newborn hearing loss so that early interventions can be provided timely to eliminate waste of medical resources. This study uses information from the neonatal database of the case hospital as the subjects, adopting two different analysis methods of using support vector machine (SVM) for model predictions and using logistic regression to conduct factor screening prior to model predictions in SVM to examine the results. The results indicate that prediction accuracy is as high as 96.43% when the factors are screened and selected through logistic regression. Hence, the model constructed in this study will have real help in clinical diagnosis for the physicians and actually beneficial to the early interventions of newborn hearing impairment.

Keywords: Data mining, Hearing impairment, Logistic regression analysis, Support vector machines

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Authors: K. R. Balabiyev, A. O. Kaipbayeva

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The article discusses the legal framework of the government’s environmental function and analyzes the role of the national policy in protection of wetlands. The problem is of interest for it deals with the most important branch of economy – utilization of Kazakhstan’s natural resources, protection of health and environmental wellbeing of the population. Development of a longterm environmental program addressing the protection of wetlands represents the final stage of the government’s environmental policy, and is a relatively new function for the public administration system. It appeared due to the environmental measures that require immediate decisions to be taken. It is an integral part of the effort in the field of management of state-owned natural resource, as well as of the measures aimed at efficient management of natural resources to avoid their early depletion or contamination.

Keywords: Environmental focus, government’s environmental function, protection of wetlands.

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Authors: Abhishek Swaroop, Awadhesh Kumar Singh

Abstract:

The group mutual exclusion (GME) problem is an interesting generalization of the mutual exclusion problem. Several solutions of the GME problem have been proposed for message passing distributed systems. However, none of these solutions is suitable for real time distributed systems. In this paper, we propose a token-based distributed algorithms for the GME problem in soft real time distributed systems. The algorithm uses the concepts of priority queue, dynamic request set and the process state. The algorithm uses first come first serve approach in selecting the next session type between the same priority levels and satisfies the concurrent occupancy property. The algorithm allows all n processors to be inside their CS provided they request for the same session. The performance analysis and correctness proof of the algorithm has also been included in the paper.

Keywords: Concurrency, Group mutual exclusion, Priority, Request set, Token.

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Authors: Wan Norhayate Wan Daud, Fakhrul Anwar Zainol, Maslina Mansor

Abstract:

The study was conducted to produce case studies from the Malaysian public universities stands point East Coast of Malaysia. The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of knowledge management on human capital toward organizational innovation. The focus point of this study is on the management member in the faculties of these three Malaysian Public Universities in the East Coast state of Peninsular Malaysia. In this case, respondents who agreed to further participate in the research will be invited to a one-hour face-to-face semi-structured, in-depth interview. As a result, the sample size for this study was 3 deans of Faculty of Management. Lastly, this study tries to recommend the framework of organizational innovation in Malaysian Public Universities.

Keywords: Human Capital, Knowledge Management, Organizational Innovation, Public University.

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Authors: S. Akridiss, E. El Tabach, K. Chetehouna, N. Gascoin, M. S. Kadiri

Abstract:

Transpiration cooling combined to regenerative cooling is a technique that could be used to cool the porous walls of the future ramjet combustion chambers; it consists of using fuel that will flow through the pores of the porous material consisting of the chamber walls, as coolant. However, at high temperature, the fuel is pyrolysed and generates solid coke particles inside the porous materials. This phenomenon can lead to a significant decrease of the material permeability and can affect the efficiency of the cooling system. In order to better understand this phenomenon, an experimental laboratory study was undertaken to determine the transport and deposition of particles in a sintered porous material subjected to steady state flow. The test bench composed of a high-pressure autoclave is used to study the transport of different particle size (35

Keywords: Experimental study, permeability, porous material, suspended particles.

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Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

Abstract:

Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.

Keywords: Forecasting problem, interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-plus-SARMA methods.

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Authors: Constantin Barbulescu, Gh. Vuc, Stefan Kilyeni, Dan Jigoria-Oprea, Oana Pop

Abstract:

Perhaps no single issue has been cited as either the root cause and / or the greatest challenge to the restructured power system then the lack of adequate reliable transmission. Probabilistic transmission planning has become increasingly necessary and important in recent years. The transmission planning analysis carried out by the authors, spans a 10-year horizon, taking into consideration a value of 2 % load increase / year at each consumer. Taking into consideration this increased load, a probabilistic power flow was carried out, all the system components being regarded from probabilistic point of view. Several contingencies have been generated, for assessing the security of the power system. The results have been analyzed and several important conclusions were pointed. The objective is to achieve a network that works without limit violations for all (or most of) scenario realizations. The case study is represented by the IEEE 14 buses test power system.

Keywords: Contingency, load, operating state, probabilistic power flow, transmission planning

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