Search results for: quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF)

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this talk, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, Financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model.

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Authors: Bella Llego

Abstract:

This research aims to study on “ASEAN Citizenship in the Internationalization of Thai Higher Education.” The purposes of this research are (1) to examine the Thai academics and scholars defined in the concept of internationalization of higher education, (2) to know how Thailand tries to fulfill its internationalization on education goal, (3) to find out the advantages and disadvantages of Thailand hub for higher education in Asia. Sequential mixed methods, qualitative and quantitative research methods were utilized to gather the data collected. By using a qualitative method (individual interviews from key Thai administrators and educators in the international higher education sector), a quantitative method (survey) was utilized to draw upon and to elaborate the recurring themes present during the interviews. The study found that many aspects of Thai international higher education programs received heavy influence from both the American and European higher education systems. Thailand’s role and leadership in the creation and launch of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2015 gives its unique context for its internationalization efforts. English is being designated as the language of all Thai international programs; its influence further strengthened being the current language of academia, international business, and the internet, having global influence.

Keywords: ASEAN Citizenship, Internationalization, Thai Higher Education.

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Authors: S. Ghorbani, N. I. Polushin

Abstract:

In this study, an approach to identify factors affecting on surface roughness in a machining process is presented. This study is based on 81 data about surface roughness over a wide range of cutting tools (conventional, cutting tool with holes, cutting tool with composite material), workpiece materials (AISI 1045 Steel, AA2024 aluminum alloy, A48-class30 gray cast iron), spindle speed (630-1000 rpm), feed rate (0.05-0.075 mm/rev), depth of cut (0.05-0.15 mm) and tool overhang (41-65 mm). A single decision tree (SDT) analysis was done to identify factors for predicting a model of surface roughness, and the CART algorithm was employed for building and evaluating regression tree. Results show that a single decision tree is better than traditional regression models with higher rate and forecast accuracy and strong value.

Keywords: Cutting condition, surface roughness, decision tree, CART algorithm.

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Authors: Stefan M. Goetz, Thomas Weyh, Hans-Georg Herzog

Abstract:

The triumph of inductive neuro-stimulation since its rediscovery in the 1980s has been quite spectacular. In lots of branches ranging from clinical applications to basic research this system is absolutely indispensable. Nevertheless, the basic knowledge about the processes underlying the stimulation effect is still very rough and rarely refined in a quantitative way. This seems to be not only an inexcusable blank spot in biophysics and for stimulation prediction, but also a fundamental hindrance for technological progress. The already very sophisticated devices have reached a stage where further optimization requires better strategies than provided by simple linear membrane models of integrate-and-fire style. Addressing this problem for the first time, we suggest in the following text a way for virtual quantitative analysis of a stimulation system. Concomitantly, this ansatz seems to provide a route towards a better understanding by using nonlinear signal processing and taking the nerve as a filter that is adapted for neuronal magnetic stimulation. The model is compact and easy to adjust. The whole setup behaved very robustly during all performed tests. Exemplarily a recent innovative stimulator design known as cTMS is analyzed and dimensioned with this approach in the following. The results show hitherto unforeseen potentials.

Keywords: Theory of magnetic stimulation, inversion, optimization, high voltage oscillator, TMS, cTMS.

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Authors: Sunusi N., Kresna A. J., Islamiyati A., Raupong

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Hazard rate estimation is one of the important topics in forecasting earthquake occurrence. Forecasting earthquake occurrence is a part of the statistical seismology where the main subject is the point process. Generally, earthquake hazard rate is estimated based on the point process likelihood equation called the Hazard Rate Likelihood of Point Process (HRLPP). In this research, we have developed estimation method, that is hazard rate single decrement HRSD. This method was adapted from estimation method in actuarial studies. Here, one individual associated with an earthquake with inter event time is exponentially distributed. The information of epicenter and time of earthquake occurrence are used to estimate hazard rate. At the end, a case study of earthquake hazard rate will be given. Furthermore, we compare the hazard rate between HRLPP and HRSD method.

Keywords: Earthquake forecast, Hazard Rate, Likelihood point process, Point process.

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Hocine Dahmani

Abstract:

Over recent years much progress has been achieved in the fields of numerical modeling shoreline processes: waves, currents, waves and current. However, there are still some problems in the existing models to link the on the first, the hydrodynamics of waves and currents and secondly, the sediment transport processes and due to the variability in time, space and interaction and the simultaneous action of wave-current near the shore. This paper is the establishment of a numerical modeling to forecast the sediment transport from development scenarios of harbor structure. It is established on the basis of a numerical simulation of a water-sediment model via a 2D model using a set of codes calculation MIKE 21-DHI software. This is to examine the effect of the sediment transport drivers following the dominant incident wave in the direction to pass input harbor work under different variants planning studies to find the technical and economic limitations to the sediment transport and protection of the harbor structure optimum solution.

Keywords: Swell, current, radiation, stress, mesh, MIKE21, sediment.

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Authors: Tomohiro Hachino, Hitoshi Takata, Seiji Fukushima, Yasutaka Igarashi

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This paper presents a Gaussian process model-based short-term electric load forecasting. The Gaussian process model is a nonparametric model and the output of the model has Gaussian distribution with mean and variance. The multiple Gaussian process models as every hour ahead predictors are used to forecast future electric load demands up to 24 hours ahead in accordance with the direct forecasting approach. The separable least-squares approach that combines the linear least-squares method and genetic algorithm is applied to train these Gaussian process models. Simulation results are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed electric load forecasting.

Keywords: Direct method, electric load forecasting, Gaussian process model, genetic algorithm, separable least-squares method.

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Authors: Wisutmethangoon S., Pannaray S., Plookphol T., Wannasin J.

Abstract:

2024 Aluminum alloy was squeezed cast by the Gas Induced Semi Solid (GISS) process. Effect of artificial aging on microstructure and mechanical properties of this alloy was studied in the present work. The solutionized specimens were aged hardened at temperatures of 175°C, 200°C, and 225°C under various time durations. The highest hardness of about 77.7 HRE was attained from specimen aged at the temperature of 175°C for 36h. Upon investigation the microstructure by using transmission electron microscopy (TEM), the S’ phase was mainly attributed to the strengthening effect in the aged alloy. The apparent activation energy for precipitation hardening of the alloy was calculated as 133,805 J/mol.

Keywords: 2024 aluminum alloy, Gas induced semi solid, T6 heat treatment, Aged hardening, Transmission electron microscopy.

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Authors: William Anderson, Kyle Kobold, Oleg Yakimenko

Abstract:

Green microgrids using mostly renewable energy (RE) for generation, are complex systems with inherent nonlinear dynamics. Among a variety of different optimization tools there are only a few ones that adequately consider this complexity. This paper evaluates applicability of two somewhat similar optimization tools tailored for standalone RE microgrids and also assesses a machine learning tool for performance prediction that can enhance the reliability of any chosen optimization tool. It shows that one of these microgrid optimization tools has certain advantages over another and presents a detailed routine of preparing input data to simulate RE microgrid behavior. The paper also shows how neural-network-based predictive modeling can be used to validate and forecast solar power generation based on weather time series data, which improves the overall quality of standalone RE microgrid analysis.

Keywords: Microgrid, renewable energy, complex systems, optimization, predictive modeling, neural networks.

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Authors: Shaheena Erkiah, Adjnu Damar Ladkoo

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Worldwide, improving tourism competitiveness has been on the agendas of many stakeholders of the hotel sector, and they seem to have agreed that one of the best ways to compete is via the implementation of electronic customer relationship management (e-CRM). In so doing, the organizations enjoy strategic positioning on the competitive market by managing better not only the customers but, other business components including knowledge and employee management. Over the recent years, the tourism industry in Mauritius has witnessed a drastic economic boom at international and national levels; providing a new outlook to boost business performance through existing and potential customers. E-CRM has been one of the management tools used to achieving this position. Thus, this insightful context- Mauritius- was opted for the study. The aim was to assess the effectiveness of e-CRM as a strategic tool in the hotel sector in Mauritius through the implementation of business strategy to create competitive advantage and impact on the business performance. To achieve the objectives of the study, a quantitative research methodology was adopted and the research revealed that e-CRM is indeed an effective strategic tool in the hotel industry in Mauritius that can provide a competitive advantage and impact positively on the organization’s performance.

Keywords: Customer, electronic, management, relationship, strategic.

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Authors: Sirichai Chantara-arpornchai, Apanee Luengnaruemitchai, Samai Jai-In

Abstract:

In this study, the transesterification of palm oil with methanol for biodiesel production was studied by using CaO–ZnO as a heterogeneous base catalyst prepared by incipient-wetness impregnation (IWI) and co-precipitation (CP) methods. The reaction parameters considered were molar ratio of methanol to oil, amount of catalyst, reaction temperature, and reaction time. The optimum conditions–15:1 molar ratio of methanol to oil, a catalyst amount of 6 wt%, reaction temperature of 60 °C, and reaction time of 8 h–were observed. The effects of Ca loading, calcination temperature, and catalyst preparation on the catalytic performance were studied. The fresh and spent catalysts were characterized by several techniques, including XRD, TPR, and XRF.

Keywords: CaO, ZnO, biodiesel, heterogeneous catalyst, trans-esterification.

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Authors: Darren Zou

Abstract:

Forecasting the stock market is a very challenging task. Various economic indicators such as GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, and unemployment have a substantial impact on the stock market. Time series models are the traditional methods used to predict stock market changes. In this paper, a machine learning method, Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) is used in predicting stock market indexes based on multiple economic indicators. BART can be used to model heterogeneous treatment effects, and thereby works well when models are misspecified. It also has the capability to handle non-linear main effects and multi-way interactions without much input from financial analysts. In this research, BART is proposed to provide a reliable prediction on day-to-day stock market activities. By comparing the analysis results from BART and with time series method, BART can perform well and has better prediction capability than the traditional methods.

Keywords: Bayesian, Forecast, Stock, BART.

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Authors: Srisuwan Kasemsawat

Abstract:

This is a survey research using quantitative and qualitative methodology. There were three objectives: 1) To study participatory level of community in water and waste environment management. 2) To study the affecting factors for community participation in water and waste environment management in Ampawa District, Samut Songkram Province. 3) To search for the participatory patterns in water and waste management. The population sample for the quantitative research was 1,364 people living in Ampawa District. The methodology was simple random sampling. Research instrument was a questionnaire and the qualitative research used purposive sampling in 6 Sub Districts which are Ta Ka, Suanluang, Bangkae, Muangmai, Kwae-om, and Bangnanglee Sub District Administration Organization. Total population is 63. For data analysis, the study used content analysis from quantitative research to synthesize and build question frame from the content for interview and conducting focus group interview. The study found that the community participatory in the issue of level in water and waste management are moderate of planning, operation, and evaluation. The issue of being beneficial is at low level. Therefore, the overall participatory level of community in water and waste environment management is at a medium level. The factors affecting the participatory of community in water and waste management are age, the period dwelling in the community and membership in which the mean difference is statistic significant at 0.05 in area of operation, being beneficial, and evaluation. For patterns of community participation, there is the correlation with water and waste management in 4 concerns which are 1) Participation in planning 2) Participation in operation 3) Participation in being beneficial both directly and indirectly benefited 4) Participation in evaluation and monitoring. The recommendation from this study is the need to create conscious awareness in order to increase participation level of people by organizing activities that promote participation with volunteer spirit. Government should open opportunities for people to participate in sharing ideas and create the culture of living together with equality which would build more concrete participation.

Keywords: Participation, Participatory Patterns, Water and Waste Management, Environmental Management.

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Authors: A. Qayed Al-Emadi, C. Schwabenland, B. Czarnecka

Abstract:

In 2009, the new HRM policy was implemented in Qatar for public sector organisations. The purpose of this research is to examine how Qatar’s 2009 HRM policy was significant in influencing employee retention in public organisations. The conducted study utilised quantitative methodology to analyse the data on employees’ perceptions of such HRM practices as Performance Management, Rewards and Promotion, Training and Development associated with the HRM policy in public organisations in comparison to semi-private organisations. Employees of seven public and semi-private organisations filled in the questionnaire based on the 5-point Likert scale to present quantitative results. The data was analysed with the correlation and multiple regression statistical analyses. It was found that Performance Management had the relationship with Employee Retention, and Rewards and Promotion influenced Job Satisfaction in public organisations. Relationship between Job Satisfaction and Employee Retention was also observed. However, no significant differences were observed in the role of HRM practices in public and semi-private organisations.

Keywords: Performance management, rewards, promotion, training and development, job satisfaction, employee retention, SHRM, configurationally perspective.

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Authors: Marcus C. Garcia, Giselle C. Guimarães, Luciana H. Yamane, Renato R. Siman

Abstract:

The environmental indicators and the classification of beach waste are essential tools to diagnose the current situation and to indicate ways to improve the quality of this environment. The purpose of this paper was to perform a quali-quantitative analysis of the beach waste on the Curva da Jurema Beach (Espírito Santo - Brazil). Three transects were used with equidistant positioning over the total length of the beach for the solid waste collection. Solid wastes were later classified according to their use and primary raw material from the low and high summer season. During the low season, average values of 7.10 items.m^-1, 18.22 g.m^-1 and 0.91 g.m^-2 were found for the whole beach, and transect 3 contributed the most waste, with the total sum of items equal to 999 (49%), a total mass of 5.62 kg and a total volume of 21.31 L. During the high summer season, average values of 8.22 items.m^-1, 54.40 g.m^-1 and 2.72 g.m^-2 were found, with transect 2 contributing the most to the total sum with 1,212 items (53%), a total mass of 10.76 kg and a total volume of 51.99 L. Of the total collected, plastic materials represented 51.4% of the total number of items, 35.9% of the total mass and 68% of the total volume. The implementation of reactive and proactive measures is necessary so that the management of the solid wastes on Curva da Jurema Beach is in accordance with principles of sustainability.

Keywords: Beach solid waste, environmental indicators, quali-quantitative analysis, waste management.

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Authors: Aaron A. R. Nwabude

Abstract:

This study used positivist quantitative approach to examine the mathematical concepts acquisition of- KS4 (14-16) Special Education Needs (SENs) students within the school sector education in England. The research is based on a pilot study and the design is completely holistic in its approach with mixing methodologies. The study combines the qualitative and quantitative methods of approach in gathering formative data for the design process. Although, the approach could best be described as a mix method, fundamentally with a strong positivist paradigm, hence my earlier understanding of the differentiation of the students, student – teacher body and the various elements of indicators that is being measured which will require an attenuated description of individual research subjects. The design process involves four phases with five key stages which are; literature review and document analysis, the survey, interview, and observation; then finally the analysis of data set. The research identified the need for triangulation with Reid-s phases of data management providing scaffold for the study. The study clearly identified the ideological and philosophical aspects of educational research design for the study of mathematics by the special education needs (SENs) students in England using the virtual learning environment (VLE) platform.

Keywords: VLE, Special Education Needs, Key stage4, School, Mathematics, Concepts Acquisition

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Authors: Bruno Félix, André Vasconcelos, José Tribolet

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Nowadays increasingly the population makes use of Information Technology (IT). As such, in recent year the Portuguese government increased its focus on using the IT for improving people-s life and began to develop a set of measures to enable the modernization of the Public Administration, and so reducing the gap between Public Administration and citizens.Thus the Portuguese Government launched the Simplex Program. However these SIMPLEX eGov measures, which have been implemented over the years, present a serious challenge: how to forecast its impact on existing Information Systems Architecture (ISA). Thus, this research is focus in addressing the problem of automating the evaluation of the actual impact of implementation an eGovSimplification and Modernization measures in the Information Systems Architecture. To realize the evaluation we proposes a Framework, which is supported by some key concepts as: Quality Factors, ISA modeling, Multicriteria Approach, Polarity Profile and Quality Metrics

Keywords: Information System Architecture, Evaluation, eGov Simplification measure, Multicriteria Evaluation

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Pei-Shan Kao

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This paper discusses the reaction of investors in the Taiwan stock market to the most probable unknown earnings-related information and the most probable known earnings-related information. As compared with the previous literature regarding the effect of an official announcement of earnings forecast revision, this paper further analyzes investors’ cognitive bias toward the unknown and known earnings-related information, and the role of media during the investors' reactions to the foresaid information shocks. The empirical results show that both the unknown and known earnings-related information provides useful information content for a stock market. In addition, cognitive bias and disposition effect are the behavioral pitfalls that commonly occur in the process of the investors' reactions to the earnings-related information. Finally, media coverage has a remarkable influence upon the investors' trading decisions.

Keywords: Cognitive bias, role of media, disposition effect, earnings-related information, behavioral pitfall.

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Authors: Won Kyung Ham, Kang Hoon Cho, Yongho Chung, Sang C. Park

Abstract:

Presented in this paper is a framework of a software ‘WEMax’. The WEMax is invented for analysis and simulation for manned assembly lines to sustain and improve performance of manufacturing systems. In a manufacturing system, performance, such as productivity, is a key of competitiveness for output products. However, the manned assembly lines are difficult to forecast performance, because human labors are not expectable factors by computer simulation models or mathematical models. Existing approaches to performance forecasting of the manned assembly lines are limited to matters of the human itself, such as ergonomic and workload design, and non-human-factor-relevant simulation. Consequently, an approach for the forecasting and improvement of manned assembly line performance is needed to research. As a solution of the current problem, this study proposes a framework that is for generation and simulation of virtual manned assembly lines, and the framework has been implemented as a software.

Keywords: Performance Forecasting, Simulation, Virtual Manned Assembly Line.

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Authors: Panudet Saengseedam, Nanthachai Kantanantha

Abstract:

This paper proposes a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects to forecast rice and cassava yields in Thailand at the same time. A multivariate conditional autoregressive (MCAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model is applied to the rice and cassava yields monthly data which have been extracted from the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. The results show that the proposed model has better performance in most provinces in both fitting part and validation part compared to the simple exponential smoothing and conditional auto regressive models (CAR) from our previous study.

Keywords: Bayesian method, Linear mixed model, Multivariate conditional autoregressive model, Spatial time series.

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Authors: Jonathan D. Morales M., Ramón Silva R.

Abstract:

The purpose of this project is to carry out an analysis and determine the profile of actual lean manufacturing processes in the Metropolitan Area of Bucaramanga. Through the analysis of qualitative and quantitative variables it was possible to establish how these manufacturers develop production practices that ensure their competitiveness and productivity in the market. In this study, a random sample of metallurgic and wrought iron companies was applied, following which a quantitative focus and analysis was used to formulate a qualitative methodology for measuring the level of lean manufacturing procedures in the industry. A qualitative evaluation was also carried out through a multivariate analysis using the Numerical Taxonomy System (NTSYS) program which should allow for the determination of Lean Manufacturing profiles. Through the results it was possible to observe how the companies in the sector are doing with respect to Lean Manufacturing Practices, as well as identify the level of management that these companies practice with respect to this topic. In addition, it was possible to ascertain that there is no one dominant profile in the sector when it comes to Lean Manufacturing. It was established that the companies in the metallurgic and wrought iron industry show low levels of Lean Manufacturing implementation. Each one carries out diverse actions that are insufficient to consolidate a sectoral strategy for developing a competitive advantage which enables them to tie together a production strategy.

Keywords: Lean manufacturing, metallurgic industry, production line management, productivity.

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Authors: Andrés Carrión García, Aura López de Murillo, José Jabaloyes Vivas, Angela Grisales del Río

Abstract:

Some quality control tools use non metric subjective information coming from experts, who qualify the intensity of relations existing inside processes, but without quantifying them. In this paper we have developed a quality control analytic tool, measuring the impact or strength of the relationship between process operations and product characteristics. The tool includes two models: a qualitative model, allowing relationships description and analysis; and a formal quantitative model, by means of which relationship quantification is achieved. In the first one, concepts from the Graphs Theory were applied to identify those process elements which can be sources of variation, that is, those quality characteristics or operations that have some sort of prelacy over the others and that should become control items. Also the most dependent elements can be identified, that is those elements receiving the effects of elements identified as variation sources. If controls are focused in those dependent elements, efficiency of control is compromised by the fact that we are controlling effects, not causes. The second model applied adapts the multivariate statistical technique of Covariance Structural Analysis. This approach allowed us to quantify the relationships. The computer package LISREL was used to obtain statistics and to validate the model.

Keywords: Characteristics matrix, covariance structure analysis, LISREL.

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Authors: Maria de Nazaré Moraes Soares, Silvia Maria Dias Pedro Rebouças, José Carlos Lázaro

Abstract:

The Solidarity Economy (SE) acts in the re-articulation of the economic field to the other spheres of social action. The significant participation of women in SE resulted in the formation of a national network of self-managed enterprises in Brazil: The Solidarity and Feminist Economy Network (SFEN). The objective of the research is to identify factors of gender justice and feminist self-management practices that adhere to the reality of women in SE enterprises. The conceptual apparatus related to feminist studies in this research covers Nancy Fraser approaches on gender justice, and Patricia Yancey Martin approaches on feminist management practices, and authors of postcolonial feminism such as Mohanty and Maria Lugones, who lead the discussion to peripheral contexts, a necessary perspective when observing the women’s movement in SE. The research has a quantitative nature in the phases of data collection and analysis. The data collection was performed through two data sources: the database mapped in Brazil in 2010-2013 by the National Information System in Solidary Economy and 150 questionnaires with women from 16 enterprises in SFEN, in a state of Brazilian northeast. The data were analyzed using the multivariate statistical technique of Factor Analysis. The results show that the factors that define gender justice and feminist self-management practices in SE are interrelated in several levels, proving statistically the intersectional condition of the issue of women. The evidence from the quantitative analysis allowed us to understand the dimensions of gender justice and feminist management practices intersectionality; in this sense, the non-distribution of domestic work interferes in non-representation of women in public spaces, especially in peripheral contexts. The study contributes with important reflections to the studies of this area and can be complemented in the future with a qualitative research that approaches the perspective of women in the context of the SE self-management paradigm.

Keywords: Feminist management practices, gender justice, self-management, solidarity economy.

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Authors: A. L. Qureshi, A. A. Mahessar, A. Baloch

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Flood wave propagation in river channel flow can be enunciated by nonlinear equations of motion for unsteady flow. It is difficult to find analytical solution of these non-linear equations. Hence, in this paper verification of the finite element model has been carried out against available numerical predictions and field data. The results of the model indicate a good matching with both Preissmann scheme and HEC-RAS model for a river reach of 29km at both sites (15km from upstream and at downstream end) for discharge hydrographs. It also has an agreeable comparison with the Preissemann scheme for the flow depth (stage) hydrographs. The proposed model has also been applying to forecast daily discharges at 400km downstream in the Indus River from Sukkur barrage of Sindh, Pakistan, which demonstrates accurate model predictions with observed the daily discharges. Hence, this model may be utilized for flood warnings in advance.

Keywords: Finite Element Method, Flood Forecasting, HEC-RAS, Indus river.

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Authors: Armando Cartenì, Ilaria Henke

Abstract:

Recently, the Italian government has approved a new law for public contracts and has been laying the groundwork for restarting a planning phase. The government has adopted the indications given by the European Commission regarding the estimation of the external costs within the Cost-Benefit Analysis, and has been approved the ‘Guidelines for assessment of Investment Projects’. In compliance with the new Italian law, the aim of this research was to perform a feasibility study applying quantitative methods regarding the revamping of an Italian tourist railway line. A Cost-Benefit Analysis was performed starting from the quantification of the passengers’ demand potentially interested in using the revamped rail services. The benefits due to the external costs reduction were also estimated (quantified) in terms of variations (with respect to the not project scenario): climate change, air pollution, noises, congestion, and accidents. Estimations results have been proposed in terms of the Measure of Effectiveness underlying a positive Net Present Value equal to about 27 million of Euros, an Internal Rate of Return much greater the discount rate, a benefit/cost ratio equal to 2 and a PayBack Period of 15 years.

Keywords: Cost-benefit analysis, evaluation analysis, demand management, external cost, transport planning, quality.

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Authors: Liberty L Mguni, Reinout Meijboom, Kalala Jalama

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The effect of calcination temperature and MgO crystallite sizes on the structure and catalytic performance of TiO2 supported nano-MgO catalyst for the trans-esterification of soybean oil has been studied. The catalyst has been prepared by deposition precipitation method, characterised by XRD and FTIR and tested in an autoclave at 225oC. The soybean oil conversion after 15 minutes of the trans-esterification reaction increased when the calcination temperature was increased from 500 to 600oC and decreased with further increase in calcination temperature. Some glycerolysis activity was also detected on catalysts calcined at 600 and 700oC after 45 minutes of reaction. The trans-esterification reaction rate increased with the decrease in MgO crystallite size for the first 30 min.

Keywords: Calcination temperature, crystallite size, MgO/TiO2, transesterification

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Authors: I. Falconett, K. Nagasaka

Abstract:

This study investigates the performance of radial basis function networks (RBFN) in forecasting the monthly CO2 emissions of an electric power utility. We also propose a method for input variable selection. This method is based on identifying the general relationships between groups of input candidates and the output. The effect that each input has on the forecasting error is examined by removing all inputs except the variable to be investigated from its group, calculating the networks parameter and performing the forecast. Finally, the new forecasting error is compared with the reference model. Eight input variables were identified as the most relevant, which is significantly less than our reference model with 30 input variables. The simulation results demonstrate that the model with the 8 inputs selected using the method introduced in this study performs as accurate as the reference model, while also being the most parsimonious.

Keywords: Correlation analysis, CO2 emissions forecasting, electric power utility, radial basis function networks.

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Authors: S. Bouharati, F. Allag, M. Belmahdi, M. Bounechada

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In terms of ecology forecast effects of desertification, the purpose of this study is to develop a predictive model of growth and adaptation of species in arid environment and bioclimatic conditions. The impact of climate change and the desertification phenomena is the result of combined effects in magnitude and frequency of these phenomena. Like the data involved in the phytopathogenic process and bacteria growth in arid soil occur in an uncertain environment because of their complexity, it becomes necessary to have a suitable methodology for the analysis of these variables. The basic principles of fuzzy logic those are perfectly suited to this process. As input variables, we consider the physical parameters, soil type, bacteria nature, and plant species concerned. The result output variable is the adaptability of the species expressed by the growth rate or extinction. As a conclusion, we prevent the possible strategies for adaptation, with or without shifting areas of plantation and nature adequate vegetation.

Keywords: Climate changes, dry soil, Phytopathogenicity, Predictive model, Fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Amna Batool

Abstract:

Agile methodology is the current most popular technique in software development projects. Agile methods in software development bring optimistic impact on software performances, quality and customer satisfaction. There are some organizations and small-medium enterprises adopting agile into their local software development projects as well as in distributed software development projects. Adopting agile methods in local software development projects is valuable. However, agile global software deployment needs an attention. There are different key challenges in agile global software development that need to resolve and enhance the global software development cycles. The proposed systematic literature review investigates all key challenges of agile in global software development. Moreover, a quantitative methodology (an actual survey) targeted to present a real case scenario of these particular key challenges faced by one of the software houses that is BestWeb Malaysia. The outcomes of systematic literature and the results of quantitative methodology are compared with each other to evaluate if the key challenges pointed out in systematic review still exist. The proposed research and its exploratory results can assist small medium enterprises to avoid these challenges by adopting the best practices in their global software development projects. Moreover, it is helpful for novice researchers to get valuable information altogether.

Keywords: Agile software development, ASD challenges, agile global software development. challenges in agile global software development.

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Authors: Z. Bottyán, F. Wantuch, A. Z. Gyöngyösi, Z. Tuba, K. Hadobács, P. Kardos, R. Kurunczi

Abstract:

The sensitivity of UAVs to the atmospheric effects are apparent. All the same the meteorological support for the UAVs missions is often non-adequate or partly missing. In our paper we show a new complex meteorological support system for different types of UAVs pilots, specialists and decision makers, too. The mentioned system has two important parts with different forecasts approach such as the statistical and dynamical ones. The statistical prediction approach is based on a large climatological data base and the special analog method which is able to select similar weather situations from the mentioned data base to apply them during the forecasting procedure. The applied dynamic approach uses the specific WRF model runs twice a day and produces 96 hours, high resolution weather forecast for the UAV users over the Hungary. An easy to use web-based system can give important weather information over the Carpathian basin in Central-Europe. The mentioned products can be reached via internet connection.

Keywords: Aviation meteorology, statistical weather prediction, unmanned aerial systems, WRF.

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