Search results for: Gaussian mixture model (GMM)

Authors: M. Bakhtaoui, L. Merahi

Abstract:

The reliability of the filtered HVBK model is now investigated via some large eddy simulations (LES) of freely decaying isotropic superfluid turbulence. For homogeneous turbulence at very high Reynolds numbers, comparison of the terms in the spectral kinetic energy budget equation indicates, in the energy-containing range, that the production and energy transfer effects become significant except for dissipation. In the inertial range, where the two fluids are perfectly locked, the mutual friction maybe neglected with respect to other terms. Also, the LES results for the other terms of the energy balance are presented.

Keywords: Superfluid turbulence, HVBK, Energy budget, Large Eddy Simulation.

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Authors: Mauricio Pe˜na, Adriana Luna, Carol Rodr´ıguez

Abstract:

In the following article we begin from a multi-parameter unstable nonlinear model of a Quadrotor. We design a control to stabilize and assure the attitude of the device, starting off a linearized system at the equilibrium point of the null angles of Euler (hover), which provides us a control with limited capacities at small angles of rotation of the vehicle in three dimensions. In order to clear this obstacle, we propose the identification of models in different angles by means of simulations and the design of a controller specifically implemented for the identification task, that in future works will allow the development of controllers according to fast and agile angles of Euler for Quadrotor.

Keywords: Quadrotor, model, control, identification.

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Authors: S. N. H. Azmi, B. Iqbal, J. K. Al Mamari, K. A. Al Hattali, W. N. Al Hadhrami

Abstract:

A simple, accurate and precise direct spectrophotometric method has been developed for the determination of cefixime in tablets and capsules. The method is based on the reaction of cefixime with a mixture of potassium iodide and potassium iodate to form yellow coloured product in ethanol-distilled water medium at room temperature which absorbed maximally at 352 nm. The factors affecting the reaction product were carefully studied and optimized. The validation parameters based on International Conference on Harmonisation (ICH, USA) guidelines were followed. The effect of common excipients used as additives has been tested and the tolerance limit was calculated for the determination of cefixime. Beer’s law is obeyed in the concentration range of 4 – 24 ug mL-1 with apparent molar absorptivity of 1.52 × 104 L mol-1cm-1 and Sandell’s sensitivity of 0.033 ug/cm2/ 0.001 absorbance unit. The limits of detection and quantitation for the proposed method are 0.32 and 1.06 ug mL-1, respectively. The proposed method has been successfully applied for the determination of cefixime in pharmaceutical formulations. The results obtained by the proposed method were statistically compared with the reference method using t- and F- values and found no significant difference between the two methods. The proposed method can be used as an alternate method for routine quality control analysis of cefixime in pharmaceutical formulations.

Keywords: Spectrophotometry, cefixime, validation, pharmaceutical formulations.

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Authors: M. Bahgat, H. Hanafy, H. Al-Tassan

Abstract:

Cluster formation is an essential phenomenon during direct reduction processes at shaft furnaces. Decreasing the reducing temperature to avoid this problem can cause a significant drop in throughput. In order to prevent sticking of pellets, a coating material basically inactive under the reducing conditions prevailing in the shaft furnace, should be applied to cover the outer layer of the pellets. In the present work, steel dust is used as coating material for iron ore pellets to explore dust coating effectiveness and determines the best coating conditions. Steel dust coating is applied for iron ore pellets in various concentrations. Dust slurry concentrations of 5.0-30% were used to have a coated steel dust amount of 1.0-5.0 kg per ton iron ore. Coated pellets with various concentrations were reduced isothermally in weight loss technique with simulated gas mixture to the composition of reducing gases at shaft furnaces. The influences of various coating conditions on the reduction behavior and the morphology were studied. The optimum reduced samples were comparatively applied for sticking index measurement. It was found that the optimized steel dust coating condition that achieve higher reducibility with lower sticking index was 30% steel dust slurry concentration with 3.0 kg steel dust/ton ore.

Keywords: Ironmaking, coating, steel dust, reduction.

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Authors: A. Bekbaev, M. Dzhamanbaev, R. Abitaeva, A. Karbozova, G. Nabyeva

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In this paper, the regression dependence of dancing intensity from wind speed and length of span was established due to the statistic data obtained from multi-year observations on line wires dancing accumulated by power systems of Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation. The lower and upper limitations of the equations parameters were estimated, as well as the adequacy of the regression model. The constructed model will be used in research of dancing phenomena for the development of methods and means of protection against dancing and for zoning plan of the territories of line wire dancing.

Keywords: Power lines, line wire dancing, dancing intensity, regression equation, dancing area intensity.

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Authors: Jing Zhang, Jie Chen

Abstract:

In this paper, we mainly analyze an automated parking system where the storage and retrieval requests are performed by a tower crane. In this parking system, the S/R crane which is located at the middle of the bottom of the cylinder parking area can rotate in both clockwise and counterclockwise and three kinds of movements can be done simultaneously. We develop some mathematical travel time models for the single command cycle under the random storage assignment using the characteristics of this system. Finally, we compare these travel models with discrete case and it is shown that these travel models display a good satisfactory performance.

Keywords: Parking system, travel time model, tower crane.

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Authors: Zach-Amaury Boufoy-Bastick, Lenandlar Singh

Abstract:

Computer-mediated communication technologies which provide for virtual communities have typically evolved in a cross-dichotomous manner, such that technical constructs of the technology have evolved independently from the social environment of the community. The present paper analyses some limitations of current implementations of computer-mediated communication technology that are implied by such a dichotomy, and discusses their inhibiting effects on possible developments of virtual communities. A Socio-Technical Indicator Model is introduced that utilizes integrated feedback to describe, simulate and operationalise increasing representativeness within a variety of structurally and parametrically diverse systems. In illustration, applications of the model are briefly described for financial markets and for eco-systems. A detailed application is then provided to resolve the aforementioned technical limitations of moderation on the evolution of virtual communities. The application parameterises virtual communities to function as self-transforming social-technical systems which are sensitive to emergent and shifting community values as products of on-going communications within the collective.

Keywords: Virtual community, e-democracy, feedback systems, moderation.

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Authors: Paola Comella, Vincenzo Francani, Paola Gattinoni

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This paper presents the Colzate-Vertova landslide, a Deep Seated Gravitational Slope Deformation (DSGSD) located in the Seriana Valley, Northern Italy. The paper aims at describing the development as well as evaluating the factors that influence the evolution of the landslide. After defining the conceptual model of the landslide, numerical simulations were developed using a finite element numerical model, first with a two-dimensional domain, and later with a three-dimensional one. The results of the 2-D model showed a displacement field typical of a sackung, as a consequence of the erosion along the Seriana Valley. The analysis also showed that the groundwater flow could locally affect the slope stability, bringing about a reduction in the safety factor, but without reaching failure conditions. The sensitivity analysis carried out on the strength parameters pointed out that slope failures could be reached only for relevant reduction of the geotechnical characteristics. Such a result does not fit the real conditions observed on site, where a number of small failures often develop all along the hillslope. The 3-D model gave a more comprehensive analysis of the evolution of the DSGSD, also considering the border effects. The results showed that the convex profile of the slope favors the development of displacements along the lateral valley, with a relevant reduction in the safety factor, justifying the existing landslides.

Keywords: Deep seated gravitational slope deformation, Italy, landslide, numerical modeling.

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Authors: T.C. Manjunath, B. Bandyopadhyay

Abstract:

This paper features the proposed modeling and design of a Robust Decentralized Periodic Output Feedback (RDPOF) control technique for the active vibration control of smart flexible multimodel Euler-Bernoulli cantilever beams for a multivariable (MIMO) case by retaining the first 6 vibratory modes. The beam structure is modeled in state space form using the concept of piezoelectric theory, the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory and the Finite Element Method (FEM) technique by dividing the beam into 4 finite elements and placing the piezoelectric sensor / actuator at two finite element locations (positions 2 and 4) as collocated pairs, i.e., as surface mounted sensor / actuator, thus giving rise to a multivariable model of the smart structure plant with two inputs and two outputs. Five such multivariable models are obtained by varying the dimensions (aspect ratios) of the aluminum beam, thus giving rise to a multimodel of the smart structure system. Using model order reduction technique, the reduced order model of the higher order system is obtained based on dominant eigen value retention and the method of Davison. RDPOF controllers are designed for the above 5 multivariable-multimodel plant. The closed loop responses with the RDPOF feedback gain and the magnitudes of the control input are observed and the performance of the proposed multimodel smart structure system with the controller is evaluated for vibration control.

Keywords: Smart structure, Euler-Bernoulli beam theory, Periodic output feedback control, Finite Element Method, State space model, SISO, Embedded sensors and actuators, Vibration control, Reduced order model

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Authors: Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović, Blanka Škrabić

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The paper provides a discussion of the most relevant aspects of yield curve modeling. Two classes of models are considered: stochastic and parsimonious function based, through the approaches developed by Vasicek (1977) and Nelson and Siegel (1987). Yield curve estimates for Croatia are presented and their dynamics analyzed and finally, a comparative analysis of models is conducted.

Keywords: the term structure of interest rates, Vasicek model, Nelson-Siegel model, Croatian Government market.

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Authors: Iman Mousavinejad, Reza Kazemi, , Mohsen Bayani Khaknejad

Abstract:

Active Front Steering system (AFS) provides an electronically controlled superposition of an angle to the steering wheel angle. This additional degree of freedom enables a continuous and driving-situation dependent on adaptation of the steering characteristics. In an active steering system, there needs be no fixed relationship between the steering wheel and the angle of the road wheels. Not only can the effective steering ratio be varied with speed, for example, but also the road wheel angles can be controlled by a combination of driver and computer inputs. Features like steering comfort, effort and steering dynamics are optimized and stabilizing steering interventions can be performed. In contrast to the conventional stability control, the yaw rate was fed back to AFS controller and the stability performance was optimized with Sliding Mode control (SMC) method. In addition, tire uncertainties have been taken into account in SM controller to provide the control robustness. In this paper, 3-DOF nonlinear model is used to design the AFS controller and 8-DOF nonlinear model is used to model the controlled vehicle.

Keywords: Active Front Steering (AFS), Sliding Mode Control method (SMC), Yaw rate, Vehicle Stability, Robustness

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Authors: Vijay Kumar Bajpai, Sudhir Kumar Singh

Abstract:

In this study, the performance analyses of the twenty five Coal-Fired Power Plants (CFPPs) used for electricity generation are carried out through various Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) models. Three efficiency indices are defined and pursued. During the calculation of the operational performance, energy and non-energy variables are used as input, and net electricity produced is used as desired output (Model-1). CO2 emitted to the environment is used as the undesired output (Model-2) in the computation of the pure environmental performance while in Model-3 CO2 emissions is considered as detrimental input in the calculation of operational and environmental performance. Empirical results show that most of the plants are operating in increasing returns to scale region and Mettur plant is efficient one with regards to energy use and environment. The result also indicates that the undesirable output effect is insignificant in the research sample. The present study will provide clues to plant operators towards raising the operational and environmental performance of CFPPs.

Keywords: Coal fired power plants, environmental performance, data envelopment analysis, operational performance.

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Authors: Ben Richard Hughes, Hassam Nasarullah Chaudhry

Abstract:

The main aim of this work is to establish the capabilities of new green buildings to ascertain off-grid electricity generation based on the integration of wind turbines in the conceptual model of a rotating tower [2] in Dubai. An in depth performance analysis of the WinWind 3.0MW [3] wind turbine is performed. Data based on the Dubai Meteorological Services is collected and analyzed in conjunction with the performance analysis of this wind turbine. The mathematical model is compared with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) results based on a conceptual rotating tower design model. The comparison results are further validated and verified for accuracy by conducting experiments on a scaled prototype of the tower design. The study concluded that integrating wind turbines inside a rotating tower can generate enough electricity to meet the required power consumption of the building, which equates to a wind farm containing 9 horizontal axis wind turbines located at an approximate area of 3,237,485 m2 [14].

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, green building, horizontal axis wind turbine, rotating tower, velocity gradient.

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Authors: Yansong Zhang, Xueyuan Li, Junjie Zhou, Xufeng Yin, Shihua Yuan, Shuxian Liu

Abstract:

Aiming at the verification of control algorithms for skid-steering vehicles, a vehicle simulation model of 6×6 electric skid-steering unmanned vehicle was established based on Trucksim and Simulink. The original transmission and steering mechanism of Trucksim are removed, and the electric skid-steering model and a closed-loop controller for the vehicle speed and yaw rate are built in Simulink. The simulation results are compared with the ones got by theoretical formulas. The results show that the predicted tire mechanics and vehicle kinematics of Trucksim-Simulink simulation model are closed to the theoretical results. Therefore, it can be used as an effective approach to study the dynamic performance and control algorithm of skid-steering vehicle. In this paper, a method of motion control based on feed forward control is also designed. The simulation results show that the feed forward control strategy can make the vehicle follow the target yaw rate more quickly and accurately, which makes the vehicle have more maneuverability.

Keywords: Skid-steering, Trucksim-Simulink, feedforward control, dynamics.

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Authors: Adla Bentellis, Zizette Boufaïda

Abstract:

Nowadays, the pace of business change is such that, increasingly, new functionality has to be realized and reliably installed in a matter of days, or even hours. Consequently, more and more business processes are prone to a continuous change. The objective of the research in progress is to use the MAP model, in a conceptual modeling method for flexible and adaptive business process. This method can be used to capture the flexibility dimensions of a business process; it takes inspiration from modularity concept in the object oriented paradigm to establish a hierarchical construction of the BP modeling. Its intent is to provide a flexible modeling that allows companies to quickly adapt their business processes.

Keywords: Business Process, Business process modeling, flexibility, MAP Model.

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Authors: Adekitan I. Aderibigbe, Fakolujo A. Olaosebikan

Abstract:

The parameters of a two-layer soil can be determined by processing resistivity data obtained from resistivity measurements carried out on the soil of interest. The processing usually entails applying the resistivity data as inputs to an optimisation function. This paper proposes an algorithm which utilises the square error as an optimisation function. Resistivity data from previous works were applied to test the accuracy of the new algorithm developed and the result obtained conforms significantly to results from previous works.

 

Keywords: Algorithm, earthing, resistivity, two-layer soil-model.

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Authors: Swarniv Chandra, Basudev Ghosh

Abstract:

Using the quantum hydrodynamic (QHD) model for quantum plasma at finite temperature the modulational instability of electron plasma waves is investigated by deriving a nonlinear Schrodinger equation. It was found that the electron degeneracy parameter significantly affects the linear and nonlinear properties of electron plasma waves in quantum plasma.

Keywords: Amplitude Modulation, Electron Plasma Waves, Finite Temperature Model, Modulational Instability, Quantum Plasma.

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Authors: M. Saidi, I. Djefour, F. Ait Medjber, A. Melouane, A. Gacem

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to study the physical and mechanical properties and durability of self-compacting mortars prepared by substituting a part of cement up to a percentage of 30% pozzolan according to different Blaine specific surface area (SSB1=7000 cm²/g and SSB=9000 cm²/g)). Order to evaluate durability, mortars were subjected to chemical attacks in various aggressive environments, a solution of a mixture of nitric acid and ammonium nitrate (HNO₃ + NH₄NO₃) and a magnesium sulfate salt solution (MgSO₄)) with a concentration of 10%, for a period of one month. This study is complemented by a comparative study of the durability of mortars elaborated with sulphate resistant cement (SRC). The results show that these mortars develop long-term, mechanical and chemical resistance better than mortars based Portland cement with 5% gypsum (CEM 1) and SRC. We found that the mass losses are lowest in mortars elaborated with pozzolanic cement (30% substitution with SSB₂) in both of chemical attack solutions (3.28% in the solution acid and 1.16% in the salt solution) and the compressive strength gains of 14.68% and 8.5% respectively in the two media. This is due to the action of pozzolan which fixes portlandite to form hydrated calcium silicate (CSH) from the hydration of tricalcic silicate (C₃S).

Keywords: Aggressive environments, durability, mechanical strengths, pozzolanic cement, self-compacting mortar.

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Authors: Akie Nimiya, Tomoyuki Yokogawa, Hisashi Miyazaki, Sousuke Amasaki, Yoichiro Sato, Michiyoshi Hayase

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In this paper, we proposed a method for detecting consistency violation between UML state machine diagrams and communication diagrams using Alloy. Using input language of Alloy, the proposed method expresses system behaviors described by state machine diagrams, message sequences described by communication diagrams, and a consistency property. As a result of application for an example system, we confirmed that consistency violation could be detected using Alloy correctly.

Keywords: Model checking, UML, state machine diagrams, communication diagram, alloy.

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Authors: Zhankun Wang, Timothy Makubuya

Abstract:

The efficiency of public sports service of prefecture-level cities in Zhejiang from 2008 to 2012 was evaluated by applying the DEA method, then its influencing factors were also analyzed through Tobit model. Upon analysis, the results revealed the following; (i) the change in average efficiency of public sports service in Zhejiang present a smooth uptrend and at a relatively high level from 2008 to 2012 (ii) generally, the productivity of public sports service in Zhejiang improved from 2008 to 2012, the productivity efficiency varied greatly in different years, and the regional difference of production efficiency increased. (iii) The correlations for urbanization rate, aging rate, per capita GDP and the population density were significantly positive with the public sports service efficiency in Zhejiang, of which the most significant was the aging rate. However, the population density and per capita GDP had less impact on the efficiency of public sports service in Zhejiang. In addition, whether the efficiency of public sports services in different areas in Zhejiang reciprocates to overall benefits in public wellbeing in both rural and urban settings is still arguable.

Keywords: DEA Model, public sports service, efficiency, Tobit model, Malmquist productivity index, Zhejiang.

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Authors: Dursun Aydın, Bilgin Senel

Abstract:

In this paper, the sum of squares in linear regression is reduced to sum of squares in semi-parametric regression. We indicated that different sums of squares in the linear regression are similar to various deviance statements in semi-parametric regression. In addition to, coefficient of the determination derived in linear regression model is easily generalized to coefficient of the determination of the semi-parametric regression model. Then, it is made an application in order to support the theory of the linear regression and semi-parametric regression. In this way, study is supported with a simulated data example.

Keywords: Semi-parametric regression, Penalized LeastSquares, Residuals, Deviance, Smoothing Spline.

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Authors: Sun-Young Jang, Sung-Ah Kim, Dongyoun Shin

Abstract:

Current real-estate value estimation, difficult for laymen, usually is performed by specialists. This paper presents an automated estimation process based on big data and machine-learning technology that calculates influences of building conditions on real-estate price measurement. The present study analyzed actual building sales sample data for Nonhyeon-dong, Gangnam-gu, Seoul, Korea, measuring the major influencing factors among the various building conditions. Further to that analysis, a prediction model was established and applied using RapidMiner Studio, a graphical user interface (GUI)-based tool for derivation of machine-learning prototypes. The prediction model is formulated by reference to previous examples. When new examples are applied, it analyses and predicts accordingly. The analysis process discerns the crucial factors effecting price increases by calculation of weighted values. The model was verified, and its accuracy determined, by comparing its predicted values with actual price increases.

Keywords: Big data, building-value analysis, machine learning, price prediction.

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Authors: Lillian Gungat, Meor Othman Hamzah, Mohd Rosli Mohd Hasan, Jan Valentin

Abstract:

Utilization of a high percentage of reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) requires higher production temperatures and consumes more energy. High production temperature expedites the aging of bitumen in RAP, which could affect the mixture performance. Warm mix asphalt (WMA) additive enables reduced production temperatures as a result of viscosity reduction. This paper evaluates the integration of a high percentage of RAP with a WMA additive known as RH-WMA. The optimum dosage of RH-WMA was determined from basic properties tests. A total of 0%, 30% and 50% RAP contents from two roads sources were modified with RH-WMA. The modified RAP bitumen were examined for viscosity, stiffness, rutting resistance and greenhouse gas emissions. The addition of RH-WMA improved the flow of bitumen by reducing the viscosity, and thus, decreased the construction temperature. The stiffness of the RAP modified bitumen reduced with the incorporation of RH-WMA. The positive improvement in rutting resistance was observed on bitumen with the addition of RAP and RH-WMA in comparison with control. It was estimated that the addition of RH-WMA could potentially reduce fuel usage and GHG emissions by 22 %. Hence, the synergy of RAP and WMA technology can be an alternative in green road construction.

Keywords: Reclaimed asphalt pavement, WMA additive, viscosity, stiffness, emissions.

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Authors: Rabia Korkmaz Tan, Şebnem Bora

Abstract:

The major problem encountered when modeling complex systems with agent-based modeling and simulation techniques is the existence of large parameter spaces. A complex system model cannot be expected to reflect the whole of the real system, but by specifying the most appropriate parameters, the actual system can be represented by the model under certain conditions. When the studies conducted in recent years were reviewed, it has been observed that there are few studies for parameter tuning problem in agent based simulations, and these studies have focused on tuning parameters of a single model. In this study, an approach of parameter tuning is proposed by using metaheuristic algorithms such as Genetic Algorithm (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Artificial Bee Colonies (ABC), Firefly (FA) algorithms. With this hybrid structured study, the parameter tuning problems of the models in the different fields were solved. The new approach offered was tested in two different models, and its achievements in different problems were compared. The simulations and the results reveal that this proposed study is better than the existing parameter tuning studies.

Keywords: Parameter tuning, agent based modeling and simulation, metaheuristic algorithms, complex systems.

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Authors: Nabilah Filzah Mohd Radzuan, Zalinda Othman, Azuraliza Abu Bakar, Abdul Razak Hamdan

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Uncertain data is believed to be an important issue in building up a prediction model. The main objective in the time series uncertainty analysis is to formulate uncertain data in order to gain knowledge and fit low dimensional model prior to a prediction task. This paper discusses the performance of a number of techniques in dealing with uncertain data specifically those which solve uncertain data condition by minimizing the loss of compression properties.

Keywords: Compression properties, uncertainty, uncertain time series, mining technique, weather prediction.

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Authors: Livier Serna, Xavier Fischer, Fouad Bennis

Abstract:

In this paper, a decision aid method for preoptimization is presented. The method is called “negotiation", and it is based on the identification, formulation, modeling and use of indicators defined as “negotiation indicators". These negotiation indicators are used to explore the solution space by means of a classbased approach. The classes are subdomains for the negotiation indicators domain. They represent equivalent cognitive solutions in terms of the negotiation indictors being used. By this method, we reduced the size of the solution space and the criteria, thus aiding the optimization methods. We present an example to show the method.

Keywords: Optimization Model Reduction, Pre-Optimization, Negotiation Process, Class-Making, Cognition Based VirtualExploration.

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Authors: Hideyuki Shintani, Ichiro Koshijima

Abstract:

In Cyber Physical System (CPS), if there are a large number of persons in the process, a role of person in CPS might be different comparing with the one-man system. It is also necessary to consider how Human-in-The-Loop Cyber Physical Systems (HiTLCPS) ensure safety of each person in the loop process. In this paper, the authors discuss a system safety framework with an illustrative example with STAMP model to clarify what point for safety should be considered and what role of person in the should have.

Keywords: Cyber Physical System, Human-in-The-Loop, Safety, STAMP model.

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Authors: M. Othman, N. Bhuiyan, G. J. Gouw

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In today-s competitive market, most companies develop manufacturing systems that can help in cost reduction and maximum quality. Human issues are an important part of manufacturing systems, yet most companies ignore their effects on production performance. This paper aims to developing an integrated workforce planning system that incorporates the human being. Therefore, a multi-objective mixed integer nonlinear programming model is developed to determine the amount of hiring, firing, training, overtime for each worker type. This paper considers a workforce planning model including human aspects such as skills, training, workers- personalities, capacity, motivation, and learning rates. This model helps to minimize the hiring, firing, training and overtime costs, and maximize the workers- performance. The results indicate that the workers- differences should be considered in workforce scheduling to generate realistic plans with minimum costs. This paper also investigates the effects of human learning rates on the performance of the production systems.

Keywords: Human Factors, Learning Curves, Workers' Differences, Workforce Scheduling

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Authors: B. R. Madushan, S. B. Navaratne, I. Wickramasinghe

Abstract:

Toddy sediment (TS) was cultured in a PDA medium to determine initial yeast load, and also it was undergone sun, shade, solar, dehumidified cold air (DCA) and hot air oven (at 400, 500 and 60oC) drying with a view to preserve viability of yeast. Thereafter, this study was conducted according to two factor factorial design in order to determine best preservation method. Therein the dried TS from the best drying method was taken and divided into two portions. One portion was mixed with 3: 7 ratio of TS: rice flour and the mixture was divided in to two again. While one portion was kept under in house condition the other was in a refrigerator. Same procedure was followed to the rest portion of TS too but it was at the same ratio of corn flour. All treatments were vacuum packed in triple laminate pouches and the best preservation method was determined in terms of leavening index (LI). The TS obtained from the best preservation method was used to make foods (bread and hopper) and organoleptic properties of it were evaluated against same of ordinary foods using sensory panel with a five point hedonic scale. Results revealed that yeast load or fresh TS was 58×106 CFU/g. The best drying method in preserving viability of yeast was DCA because LI of this treatment (96%) is higher than that of other three treatments. Organoleptic properties of foods prepared from best preservation method are as same as ordinary foods according to Duo trio test.

Keywords: Biological leavening agent, coconut toddy, fermentation, yeast.

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Authors: Tebogo Emma Makaba, Barnabas Ndlovu Gatsheni

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The cities of Johannesburg and Pretoria both located in the Gauteng province are separated by a distance of 58 km. The traffic queues on the Ben Schoeman freeway which connects these two cities can stretch for almost 1.5 km. Vehicle traffic congestion impacts negatively on the business and the commuter’s quality of life. The goal of this paper is to identify variables that influence the flow of traffic and to design a vehicle traffic prediction model, which will predict the traffic flow pattern in advance. The model will unable motorist to be able to make appropriate travel decisions ahead of time. The data used was collected by Mikro’s Traffic Monitoring (MTM). Multi-Layer perceptron (MLP) was used individually to construct the model and the MLP was also combined with Bagging ensemble method to training the data. The cross—validation method was used for evaluating the models. The results obtained from the techniques were compared using predictive and prediction costs. The cost was computed using combination of the loss matrix and the confusion matrix. The predicted models designed shows that the status of the traffic flow on the freeway can be predicted using the following parameters travel time, average speed, traffic volume and day of month. The implications of this work is that commuters will be able to spend less time travelling on the route and spend time with their families. The logistics industry will save more than twice what they are currently spending.

Keywords: Bagging ensemble methods, confusion matrix, multi-layer perceptron, vehicle traffic flow.

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