Search results for: Academic performance prediction system
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 13010

Search results for: Academic performance prediction system

12800 A Transform Domain Function Controlled VSSLMS Algorithm for Sparse System Identification

Authors: Cemil Turan, Mohammad Shukri Salman

Abstract:

The convergence rate of the least-mean-square (LMS) algorithm deteriorates if the input signal to the filter is correlated. In a system identification problem, this convergence rate can be improved if the signal is white and/or if the system is sparse. We recently proposed a sparse transform domain LMS-type algorithm that uses a variable step-size for a sparse system identification. The proposed algorithm provided high performance even if the input signal is highly correlated. In this work, we investigate the performance of the proposed TD-LMS algorithm for a large number of filter tap which is also a critical issue for standard LMS algorithm. Additionally, the optimum value of the most important parameter is calculated for all experiments. Moreover, the convergence analysis of the proposed algorithm is provided. The performance of the proposed algorithm has been compared to different algorithms in a sparse system identification setting of different sparsity levels and different number of filter taps. Simulations have shown that the proposed algorithm has prominent performance compared to the other algorithms.

Keywords: Adaptive filtering, sparse system identification, VSSLMS algorithm, TD-LMS algorithm.

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12799 The Use Support Vector Machine and Back Propagation Neural Network for Prediction of Daily Tidal Levels along the Jeddah Coast, Saudi Arabia

Authors: E. A. Mlybari, M. S. Elbisy, A. H. Alshahri, O. M. Albarakati

Abstract:

Sea level rise threatens to increase the impact of future  storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. Accurate sea level  change prediction and supplement is an important task in determining  constructions and human activities in coastal and oceanic areas. In  this study, support vector machines (SVM) is proposed to predict  daily tidal levels along the Jeddah Coast, Saudi Arabia. The optimal  parameter values of kernel function are determined using a genetic  algorithm. The SVM results are compared with the field data and  with back propagation (BP). Among the models, the SVM is superior  to BPNN and has better generalization performance.

 

Keywords: Tides, Prediction, Support Vector Machines, Genetic Algorithm, Back-Propagation Neural Network, Risk, Hazards.

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12798 Spatial Variation of WRF Model Rainfall Prediction over Uganda

Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Triphonia Ngailo

Abstract:

Rainfall is a major climatic parameter affecting many sectors such as health, agriculture and water resources. Its quantitative prediction remains a challenge to weather forecasters although numerical weather prediction models are increasingly being used for rainfall prediction. The performance of six convective parameterization schemes, namely the Kain-Fritsch scheme, the Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, the Grell-Deveny scheme, the Grell-3D scheme, the Grell-Fretas scheme, the New Tiedke scheme of the weather research and forecast (WRF) model regarding quantitative rainfall prediction over Uganda is investigated using the root mean square error for the March-May (MAM) 2013 season. The MAM 2013 seasonal rainfall amount ranged from 200 mm to 900 mm over Uganda with northern region receiving comparatively lower rainfall amount (200–500 mm); western Uganda (270–550 mm); eastern Uganda (400–900 mm) and the lake Victoria basin (400–650 mm). A spatial variation in simulated rainfall amount by different convective parameterization schemes was noted with the Kain-Fritsch scheme over estimating the rainfall amount over northern Uganda (300–750 mm) but also presented comparable rainfall amounts over the eastern Uganda (400–900 mm). The Betts-Miller-Janjic, the Grell-Deveny, and the Grell-3D underestimated the rainfall amount over most parts of the country especially the eastern region (300–600 mm). The Grell-Fretas captured rainfall amount over the northern region (250–450 mm) but also underestimated rainfall over the lake Victoria Basin (150–300 mm) while the New Tiedke generally underestimated rainfall amount over many areas of Uganda. For deterministic rainfall prediction, the Grell-Fretas is recommended for rainfall prediction over northern Uganda while the Kain-Fritsch scheme is recommended over eastern region.

Keywords: Convective parameterization schemes, March-May 2013 rainfall season, spatial variation of parameterization schemes over Uganda, WRF model.

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12797 Crude Oil Price Prediction Using LSTM Networks

Authors: Varun Gupta, Ankit Pandey

Abstract:

Crude oil market is an immensely complex and dynamic environment and thus the task of predicting changes in such an environment becomes challenging with regards to its accuracy. A number of approaches have been adopted to take on that challenge and machine learning has been at the core in many of them. There are plenty of examples of algorithms based on machine learning yielding satisfactory results for such type of prediction. In this paper, we have tried to predict crude oil prices using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based recurrent neural networks. We have tried to experiment with different types of models using different epochs, lookbacks and other tuning methods. The results obtained are promising and presented a reasonably accurate prediction for the price of crude oil in near future.

Keywords: Crude oil price prediction, deep learning, LSTM, recurrent neural networks.

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12796 A New Hybrid Model with Passive Congregation for Stock Market Indices Prediction

Authors: Tarek Aboueldahab

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a new hybrid learning model for stock market indices prediction by adding a passive congregation term to the standard hybrid model comprising Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) with Genetic Algorithm (GA) operators in training Neural Networks (NN). This new passive congregation term is based on the cooperation between different particles in determining new positions rather than depending on the particles selfish thinking without considering other particles positions, thus it enables PSO to perform both the local and global search instead of only doing the local search. Experiment study carried out on the most famous European stock market indices in both long term and short term prediction shows significantly the influence of the passive congregation term in improving the prediction accuracy compared to standard hybrid model.

Keywords: Global Search, Hybrid Model, Passive Congregation, Stock Market Prediction.

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12795 A Quantitative Study Identifying the Prevalence of Anxiety in Dyslexic Students in Higher Education

Authors: Amanda Abbott-Jones

Abstract:

Adult students with dyslexia in higher education can receive support for their cognitive needs but may also experience negative emotion such as anxiety due to their dyslexia in connection with their studies. This paper aims to test the hypothesis that adult dyslexic learners have a higher prevalence of academic and social anxiety than their non-dyslexic peers. A quantitative approach was used to measure differences in academic and social anxiety between 102 students with a formal diagnosis of dyslexia compared to 72 students with no history of learning difficulties. Academic and social anxiety was measured in a questionnaire based on the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory. Findings showed that dyslexic students showed statistically significant higher levels of academic, but not social anxiety in comparison to the non-dyslexic sample. Dyslexic students in higher education show academic anxiety levels that are well above what is shown by students without dyslexia. The implications of this for the dyslexia practitioner is that delivery of strategies to deal with anxiety should be seen equally as important, if not more so, than interventions to deal with cognitive difficulties.

Keywords: Academic, anxiety, dyslexia, quantitative, students, university.

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12794 Protein Secondary Structure Prediction Using Parallelized Rule Induction from Coverings

Authors: Leong Lee, Cyriac Kandoth, Jennifer L. Leopold, Ronald L. Frank

Abstract:

Protein 3D structure prediction has always been an important research area in bioinformatics. In particular, the prediction of secondary structure has been a well-studied research topic. Despite the recent breakthrough of combining multiple sequence alignment information and artificial intelligence algorithms to predict protein secondary structure, the Q3 accuracy of various computational prediction algorithms rarely has exceeded 75%. In a previous paper [1], this research team presented a rule-based method called RT-RICO (Relaxed Threshold Rule Induction from Coverings) to predict protein secondary structure. The average Q3 accuracy on the sample datasets using RT-RICO was 80.3%, an improvement over comparable computational methods. Although this demonstrated that RT-RICO might be a promising approach for predicting secondary structure, the algorithm-s computational complexity and program running time limited its use. Herein a parallelized implementation of a slightly modified RT-RICO approach is presented. This new version of the algorithm facilitated the testing of a much larger dataset of 396 protein domains [2]. Parallelized RTRICO achieved a Q3 score of 74.6%, which is higher than the consensus prediction accuracy of 72.9% that was achieved for the same test dataset by a combination of four secondary structure prediction methods [2].

Keywords: data mining, protein secondary structure prediction, parallelization.

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12793 Development of a Performance Measurement System for Forwarders

Authors: K. Schmidt, Z. Miodrag, C. Geiger

Abstract:

Performance Measurement is still a difficult task for forwarding companies. This is caused on the one hand by missing resources and on the other hand by missing tools. The research project “Management Information System for Logistics Service Providers" aims for closing the gap between needed and disposable solutions. Core of the project is the development

Keywords: Forwarder, Logistics, Management Information, Performance Measurement.

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12792 A Case Study to Observe How Students’ Perception of the Possibility of Success Impacts Their Performance in Summative Exams

Authors: Rochelle Elva

Abstract:

Faculty in Higher Education today are faced with the challenge of convincing their students of the importance of the mastery of skills through learning. This is because most students often have a single motivation -to get high grades. If it appears that this goal will not be met, they lose their motivation and their academic efforts wane. This is true even for students in the competitive fields of STEM, including Computer Science majors. As educators, we have to understand our students and leverage what motivates them, to achieve our learning outcomes. This paper presents a case study that utilizes cognitive psychology’s Expectancy-Value Theory and Motivation Theory, to investigate the effect of sustained expectancy for success on students’ learning outcomes. In our case study, we explore how students’ motivation and persistence in their academic efforts are impacted by providing them with an unexpected path to success, which continues to the end of the semester. The approach was tested in an undergraduate computer science course with n = 56. The results of the study indicate that when presented with the real possibility of success, despite existing low grades, both low and high-scoring students persisted in their efforts to improve their performance. Their final grades were on average one place higher on the +/-letter grade scale, with some students scoring as high as three places above their predicted grade.

Keywords: Expectancy for success and persistence, motivation and performance, computer science education, motivation and performance in computer science.

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12791 Gender Differences in Biology Academic Performances among Foundation Students of PERMATApintar® National Gifted Center

Authors: N. Nor Azman, M. F. Kamarudin, S. I. Ong, N. Maaulot

Abstract:

PERMATApintar® National Gifted Center is, to the author’s best of knowledge, the first center in Malaysia that provides a platform for Malaysian talented students with high ability in thinking. This center has built a teaching and learning biology curriculum that suits the ability of these gifted students. The level of PERMATApintar® biology curriculum is basically higher than the national biology curriculum. Here, the foundation students are exposed to the PERMATApintar® biology curriculum at the age of as early as 11 years old. This center practices a 4-time-a-year examination system to monitor the academic performances of the students. Generally, most of the time, male students show no or low interest towards biology subject compared to female students. This study is to investigate the association of students’ gender and their academic performances in biology examination. A total of 39 students’ scores in twelve sets of biology examinations in 3 years have been collected and analyzed by using the statistical analysis. Based on the analysis, there are no significant differences between male and female students against the biology academic performances with a significant level of p = 0.05. This indicates that gender is not associated with the scores of biology examinations among the students. Another result showed that the average score for male studenta was higher than the female students. Future research can be done by comparing the biology academic achievement in Malaysian National Examination (Sijil Pelajaran Malaysia, SPM) between the Foundation 3 students (Grade 9) and Level 2 students (Grade 11) with similar PERMATApintar® biology curriculum.

Keywords: Academic performances, biology, gender differences, gifted students.

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12790 Urban Growth Prediction in Athens, Greece, Using Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: D. Triantakonstantis, D. Stathakis

Abstract:

Urban areas have been expanded throughout the globe. Monitoring and modelling urban growth have become a necessity for a sustainable urban planning and decision making. Urban prediction models are important tools for analyzing the causes and consequences of urban land use dynamics. The objective of this research paper is to analyze and model the urban change, which has been occurred from 1990 to 2000 using CORINE land cover maps. The model was developed using drivers of urban changes (such as road distance, slope, etc.) under an Artificial Neural Network modelling approach. Validation was achieved using a prediction map for 2006 which was compared with a real map of Urban Atlas of 2006. The accuracy produced a Kappa index of agreement of 0,639 and a value of Cramer's V of 0,648. These encouraging results indicate the importance of the developed urban growth prediction model which using a set of available common biophysical drivers could serve as a management tool for the assessment of urban change.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, CORINE, Urban Atlas, Urban Growth Prediction.

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12789 The Predictability and Abstractness of Language: A Study in Understanding and Usage of the English Language through Probabilistic Modeling and Frequency

Authors: Revanth Sai Kosaraju, Michael Ramscar, Melody Dye

Abstract:

Accounts of language acquisition differ significantly in their treatment of the role of prediction in language learning. In particular, nativist accounts posit that probabilistic learning about words and word sequences has little to do with how children come to use language. The accuracy of this claim was examined by testing whether distributional probabilities and frequency contributed to how well 3-4 year olds repeat simple word chunks. Corresponding chunks were the same length, expressed similar content, and were all grammatically acceptable, yet the results of the study showed marked differences in performance when overall distributional frequency varied. It was found that a distributional model of language predicted the empirical findings better than a number of other models, replicating earlier findings and showing that children attend to distributional probabilities in an adult corpus. This suggested that language is more prediction-and-error based, rather than on abstract rules which nativist camps suggest.

Keywords: Abstractness, child psychology, language acquisition, prediction and error.

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12788 Integration of Big Data to Predict Transportation for Smart Cities

Authors: Sun-Young Jang, Sung-Ah Kim, Dongyoun Shin

Abstract:

The Intelligent transportation system is essential to build smarter cities. Machine learning based transportation prediction could be highly promising approach by delivering invisible aspect visible. In this context, this research aims to make a prototype model that predicts transportation network by using big data and machine learning technology. In detail, among urban transportation systems this research chooses bus system.  The research problem that existing headway model cannot response dynamic transportation conditions. Thus, bus delay problem is often occurred. To overcome this problem, a prediction model is presented to fine patterns of bus delay by using a machine learning implementing the following data sets; traffics, weathers, and bus statues. This research presents a flexible headway model to predict bus delay and analyze the result. The prototyping model is composed by real-time data of buses. The data are gathered through public data portals and real time Application Program Interface (API) by the government. These data are fundamental resources to organize interval pattern models of bus operations as traffic environment factors (road speeds, station conditions, weathers, and bus information of operating in real-time). The prototyping model is designed by the machine learning tool (RapidMiner Studio) and conducted tests for bus delays prediction. This research presents experiments to increase prediction accuracy for bus headway by analyzing the urban big data. The big data analysis is important to predict the future and to find correlations by processing huge amount of data. Therefore, based on the analysis method, this research represents an effective use of the machine learning and urban big data to understand urban dynamics.

Keywords: Big data, bus headway prediction, machine learning, public transportation.

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12787 Harnessing Replication in Object Allocation

Authors: H. T. Barney, G. C. Low

Abstract:

The design of distributed systems involves the partitioning of the system into components or partitions and the allocation of these components to physical nodes. Techniques have been proposed for both the partitioning and allocation process. However these techniques suffer from a number of limitations. For instance object replication has the potential to greatly improve the performance of an object orientated distributed system but can be difficult to use effectively and there are few techniques that support the developer in harnessing object replication. This paper presents a methodological technique that helps developers decide how objects should be allocated in order to improve performance in a distributed system that supports replication. The performance of the proposed technique is demonstrated and tested on an example system.

Keywords: Allocation, Distributed Systems, Replication.

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12786 Prediction of the Performance of a Bar-Type Piezoelectric Vibration Actuator Depending on the Frequency Using an Equivalent Circuit Analysis

Authors: J. H. Kim, J. H. Kwon, J. S. Park, K. J. Lim

Abstract:

This paper has been investigated a technique that predicts the performance of a bar-type unimorph piezoelectric vibration actuator depending on the frequency. This paper has been proposed an equivalent circuit that can be easily analyzed for the bar-type unimorph piezoelectric vibration actuator. In the dynamic analysis, rigidity and resonance frequency, which are important mechanical elements, were derived using the basic beam theory. In the equivalent circuit analysis, the displacement and bandwidth of the piezoelectric vibration actuator depending on the frequency were predicted. Also, for the reliability of the derived equations, the predicted performance depending on the shape change was compared with the result of a finite element analysis program.

Keywords: Actuator, performance, piezoelectric, unimorph.Actuator, performance, piezoelectric, unimorph.

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12785 Academic Program Administration via Semantic Web – A Case Study

Authors: Qurban A Memon, Shakeel A. Khoja

Abstract:

Generally, administrative systems in an academic environment are disjoint and support independent queries. The objective in this work is to semantically connect these independent systems to provide support to queries run on the integrated platform. The proposed framework, by enriching educational material in the legacy systems, provides a value-added semantics layer where activities such as annotation, query and reasoning can be carried out to support management requirements. We discuss the development of this ontology framework with a case study of UAE University program administration to show how semantic web technologies can be used by administration to develop student profiles for better academic program management.

Keywords: Academic Program Administration, Semantic Web, Web Technology

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12784 Academic Motivation Maintenance for Students While Solving Mathematical Problems in the Middle School

Authors: M. Rodionov, Z. Dedovets

Abstract:

The level and type of student academic motivation are the key factors in their development and determine the effectiveness of their education. Improving motivation is very important with regard to courses on middle school mathematics. This article examines the general position regarding the practice of academic motivation. It also examines the particular features of mathematical problem solving in a school setting.

Keywords: Teaching strategy, mathematics, motivation, student.

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12783 Optimal One Bit Time Reversal For UWB Impulse Radio In Multi-User Wireless Communications

Authors: Hung Tuan Nguyen

Abstract:

In this paper, with the purpose of further reducing the complexity of the system, while keeping its temporal and spatial focusing performance, we investigate the possibility of using optimal one bit time reversal (TR) system for impulse radio ultra wideband multi-user wireless communications. The results show that, by optimally selecting the number of used taps in the pre-filter the optimal one bit TR system can outperform the full one bit TR system. In some cases, the temporal and spatial focusing performance of the optimal one bit TR system appears to be compatible with that of the original TR system. This is a significant result as the overhead cost is much lower than it is required in the original TR system.

Keywords: Time reversal, optimal one bit, UWB, multi-user interference, inter symbol interference

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12782 Empirical Statistical Modeling of Rainfall Prediction over Myanmar

Authors: Wint Thida Zaw, Thinn Thu Naing

Abstract:

One of the essential sectors of Myanmar economy is agriculture which is sensitive to climate variation. The most important climatic element which impacts on agriculture sector is rainfall. Thus rainfall prediction becomes an important issue in agriculture country. Multi variables polynomial regression (MPR) provides an effective way to describe complex nonlinear input output relationships so that an outcome variable can be predicted from the other or others. In this paper, the modeling of monthly rainfall prediction over Myanmar is described in detail by applying the polynomial regression equation. The proposed model results are compared to the results produced by multiple linear regression model (MLR). Experiments indicate that the prediction model based on MPR has higher accuracy than using MLR.

Keywords: Polynomial Regression, Rainfall Forecasting, Statistical forecasting.

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12781 Baseline Performance of Notebook Computer under Various Environmental and Usage Conditions for Prognostics

Authors: Sachin Kumar, Michael Pecht

Abstract:

A study was conducted to formally characterize notebook computer performance under various environmental and usage conditions. Software was developed to collect data from the operating system of the computer. An experiment was conducted to evaluate the performance parameters- variations, trends, and correlations, as well as the extreme value they can attain in various usage and environmental conditions. An automated software script was written to simulate user activity. The variability of each performance parameter was addressed by establishing the empirical relationship between performance parameters. These equations were presented as baseline estimates for performance parameters, which can be used to detect system deviations from normal operation and for prognostic assessment. The effect of environmental factors, including different power sources, ambient temperatures, humidity, and usage, on performance parameters of notebooks was studied.

Keywords: Health monitoring, Electronic prognostics, Reliability, Usage monitoring, Notebook computer.

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12780 Robust Parameter and Scale Factor Estimation in Nonstationary and Impulsive Noise Environment

Authors: Zoran D. Banjac, Branko D. Kovacevic

Abstract:

The problem of FIR system parameter estimation has been considered in the paper. A new robust recursive algorithm for simultaneously estimation of parameters and scale factor of prediction residuals in non-stationary environment corrupted by impulsive noise has been proposed. The performance of derived algorithm has been tested by simulations.

Keywords: Adaptive filtering, Non-Gaussian filtering, Robustestimation, Scale factor estimation.

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12779 Lessons Learned from Observing User Behavior through Repeated Usability Evaluations

Authors: Hanmin Jung, Mikyoung Lee, Won-kyung Sung

Abstract:

Academic research information service is a must for surveying previous studies in research and development process. OntoFrame is an academic research information service under Semantic Web framework different from simple keyword-based services such as CiteSeer and Google Scholar. The first purpose of this study is for revealing user behavior in their surveys, the objects of using academic research information services, and their needs. The second is for applying lessons learned from the results to OntoFrame.

Keywords: User Behavior, Usability Evaluation, OntoFrame, CiteSeer, Google Scholar, Academic Research Information Service.

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12778 Mix Proportioning and Strength Prediction of High Performance Concrete Including Waste Using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: D. G. Badagha, C. D. Modhera, S. A. Vasanwala

Abstract:

There is a great challenge for civil engineering field to contribute in environment prevention by finding out alternatives of cement and natural aggregates. There is a problem of global warming due to cement utilization in concrete, so it is necessary to give sustainable solution to produce concrete containing waste. It is very difficult to produce designated grade of concrete containing different ingredient and water cement ratio including waste to achieve desired fresh and harden properties of concrete as per requirement and specifications. To achieve the desired grade of concrete, a number of trials have to be taken, and then after evaluating the different parameters at long time performance, the concrete can be finalized to use for different purposes. This research work is carried out to solve the problem of time, cost and serviceability in the field of construction. In this research work, artificial neural network introduced to fix proportion of concrete ingredient with 50% waste replacement for M20, M25, M30, M35, M40, M45, M50, M55 and M60 grades of concrete. By using the neural network, mix design of high performance concrete was finalized, and the main basic mechanical properties were predicted at 3 days, 7 days and 28 days. The predicted strength was compared with the actual experimental mix design and concrete cube strength after 3 days, 7 days and 28 days. This experimentally and neural network based mix design can be used practically in field to give cost effective, time saving, feasible and sustainable high performance concrete for different types of structures.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, ANN, high performance concrete, rebound hammer, strength prediction.

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12777 Cross Project Software Fault Prediction at Design Phase

Authors: Pradeep Singh, Shrish Verma

Abstract:

Software fault prediction models are created by using the source code, processed metrics from the same or previous version of code and related fault data. Some company do not store and keep track of all artifacts which are required for software fault prediction. To construct fault prediction model for such company, the training data from the other projects can be one potential solution. Earlier we predicted the fault the less cost it requires to correct. The training data consists of metrics data and related fault data at function/module level. This paper investigates fault predictions at early stage using the cross-project data focusing on the design metrics. In this study, empirical analysis is carried out to validate design metrics for cross project fault prediction. The machine learning techniques used for evaluation is Naïve Bayes. The design phase metrics of other projects can be used as initial guideline for the projects where no previous fault data is available. We analyze seven datasets from NASA Metrics Data Program which offer design as well as code metrics. Overall, the results of cross project is comparable to the within company data learning.

Keywords: Software Metrics, Fault prediction, Cross project, Within project.

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12776 The Impact of Implementing European Quality Labeling System on the Supply Chain Performance of Food Industry: An Empirical Study of the Egyptian Traditional Food Sector

Authors: Nourhan A. Saad, Sara Elgazzar, Gehan Saleh

Abstract:

The food industry nowadays is becoming customer-oriented and needs faster response time to deal with food incidents. There is a deep need for good traceability systems to help the supply chain (SC) partners to minimize production and distribution of unsafe or poor quality products, which in turn will enhance the food SC performance. The current food labeling systems implemented in developing countries cannot guarantee that food is authentic, safe and of good quality. Therefore, the use of origin labels, mainly the geographical indications (GIs), allows SC partners to define quality standards and defend their products' reputation. According to our knowledge there are no studies discussed the use of GIs in developing countries. This research represents a research schema about the implementation of European quality labeling system in developing countries and its impact on enhancing SC performance. An empirical study was conducted on the Egyptian traditional food sector based on a sample of seven restaurants implementing the Med-diet labeling system. First, in-depth interviews were carried out to analyze the Egyptian traditional food SC. Then, a framework was developed to link the European quality labeling system and SC performance. Finally, a structured survey was conducted based on the applied framework to investigate the impact of Med-diet labeling system on the SC performance. The research provides an applied framework linking Med-diet quality labeling system to SC performance of traditional food sector in developing countries generally and especially in the Egyptian traditional food sector. The framework can be used as a SC performance management tool to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of food industry's SC performance.

Keywords: Food supply chain, med-diet labeling system, quality labeling system, supply chain performance.

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12775 A New Quantile Based Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model

Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, Aqil S. Burney, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Quantile Regression, Fuzzy time series, fuzzy logicalrelationship groups, heuristic trend prediction.

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12774 Characteristic Study on Conventional and Soliton Based Transmission System

Authors: Bhupeshwaran Mani, S. Radha, A. Jawahar, A. Sivasubramanian

Abstract:

Here, we study the characteristic feature of conventional (ON-OFF keying) and soliton based transmission system. We consider 20Gbps transmission system implemented with Conventional Single Mode Fiber (C-SMF) to examine the role of Gaussian pulse which is the characteristic of conventional propagation and Hyperbolic-secant pulse which is the characteristic of soliton propagation in it. We note the influence of these pulses with respect to different dispersion lengths and soliton period in conventional and soliton system respectively and evaluate the system performance in terms of Quality factor. From the analysis, we could prove that the soliton pulse has the consistent performance even for long distance without dispersion compensation than the conventional system as it is robust to dispersion. For the length of transmission of 200Km, soliton system yielded Q of 33.958 while the conventional system totally exhausted with Q=0.

Keywords: Soliton, dispersion length, Soliton period, Return-tozero (RZ), Q-factor.

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12773 Performance Evaluation of Thermosiphon Based Solar Water Heater in India

Authors: Dnyandip K. Bhamare, Manish K Rathod, Jyotirmay Banerjee

Abstract:

This paper aims to study performance of a thermosiphon solar water heating system with the help of the proposed analytical model. This proposed model predicts the temperature and mass flow rate in a thermosiphon solar water heating system depending on radiation intensity and ambient temperature. The performance of the thermosiphon solar water heating system is evaluated in the Indian context. For this, eight cities in India are selected considering radiation intensity and geographical positions. Predicted performance at various cities reveals the potential for thermosiphon solar water in India.

Keywords: Collector outlet temperature, India, solar water heater, thermosiphon.

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12772 An Integrated Predictor for Cis-Regulatory Modules

Authors: Darby Tien-Hao Chang, Guan-Yu Shiu, You-Jie Sun

Abstract:

Various cis-regulatory module (CRM) predictors have been proposed in the last decade. Several well-established CRM predictors adopted different categories of prediction strategies, including window clustering, probabilistic modeling and phylogenetic footprinting. Appropriate integration of them has a potential to achieve high quality CRM prediction. This study analyzed four existing CRM predictors (ClusterBuster, MSCAN, CisModule and MultiModule) to seek a predictor combination that delivers a higher accuracy than individual CRM predictors. 465 CRMs across 140 Drosophila melanogaster genes from the RED fly database were used to evaluate the integrated CRM predictor proposed in this study. The results show that four predictor combinations achieved superior performance than the best individual CRM predictor.

Keywords: Cis-regulatory module, transcription factor binding site.

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12771 Active Intra-ONU Scheduling with Cooperative Prediction Mechanism in EPONs

Authors: Chuan-Ching Sue, Shi-Zhou Chen, Ting-Yu Huang

Abstract:

Dynamic bandwidth allocation in EPONs can be generally separated into inter-ONU scheduling and intra-ONU scheduling. In our previous work, the active intra-ONU scheduling (AS) utilizes multiple queue reports (QRs) in each report message to cooperate with the inter-ONU scheduling and makes the granted bandwidth fully utilized without leaving unused slot remainder (USR). This scheme successfully solves the USR problem originating from the inseparability of Ethernet frame. However, without proper setting of threshold value in AS, the number of QRs constrained by the IEEE 802.3ah standard is not enough, especially in the unbalanced traffic environment. This limitation may be solved by enlarging the threshold value. The large threshold implies the large gap between the adjacent QRs, thus resulting in the large difference between the best granted bandwidth and the real granted bandwidth. In this paper, we integrate AS with a cooperative prediction mechanism and distribute multiple QRs to reduce the penalty brought by the prediction error. Furthermore, to improve the QoS and save the usage of queue reports, the highest priority (EF) traffic which comes during the waiting time is granted automatically by OLT and is not considered in the requested bandwidth of ONU. The simulation results show that the proposed scheme has better performance metrics in terms of bandwidth utilization and average delay for different classes of packets.

Keywords: EPON, Inter-ONU and Intra-ONU scheduling, Prediction, Unused slot remainder

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