Search results for: deep learning algorithms

Authors: M. V. Sudhamani, C. R. Venugopal

Abstract:

This paper deals with the application for contentbased image retrieval to extract color feature from natural images stored in the image database by segmenting the image through clustering. We employ a class of nonparametric techniques in which the data points are regarded as samples from an unknown probability density. Explicit computation of the density is avoided by using the mean shift procedure, a robust clustering technique, which does not require prior knowledge of the number of clusters, and does not constrain the shape of the clusters. A non-parametric technique for the recovery of significant image features is presented and segmentation module is developed using the mean shift algorithm to segment each image. In these algorithms, the only user set parameter is the resolution of the analysis and either gray level or color images are accepted as inputs. Extensive experimental results illustrate excellent performance.

Keywords: Segmentation, Clustering, Image Retrieval, Features.

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Authors: Hidehiko Okada, Jumpei Tokida

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Researchers have been applying tional intelligence (AI/CI) methods to computer games. In this research field, further researchesare required to compare AI/CI methods with respect to each game application. In th our experimental result on the comparison of three evolutionary algorithms – evolution strategy, genetic algorithm, and their hybrid applied to evolving controller agents for the CIG 2007 Simulated Car Racing competition. Our experimental result shows that, premature convergence of solutions was observed in the case of ES, and GA outperformed ES in the last half of generations. Besides, a hybrid which uses GA first and ES next evolved the best solution among the whole solutions being generated. This result shows the ability of GA in globally searching promising areas in the early stage and the ability of ES in locally searching the focused area (fine-tuning solutions).

Keywords: Evolutionary algorithm, autonomous agent, neuroevolutions, simulated car racing.

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Authors: Shattyk Aliyev, Zhakypbek Altayev, Pirimbek Suleimenov, Asset Kuranbek, Zhamila Amirkulova

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Modern civilization has come in recent decades into a new phase in its development, called the information society. The concept of "information society" has become one of the most common. Therefore, the attempt to understand what exactly the society we live in, what are its essential features, and possible future scenarios, is important to the social and philosophical analysis. At the heart of all these deep transformations is more increasing, almost defining role knowledge and information as play substrata of «information society». The mankind opened for itself and actively exploits a new resource – information. Information society puts forward on the arena new type of the power, at the heart of which activity – mastering by a new resource: information and knowledge. The password of the new power – intelligence as synthesis of knowledge, information and communications, the strength of mind, fundamental sociocultural values. In a postindustrial society, the power of knowledge and information is crucial in the management of the company, pushing into the background the influence of money and state coercion.

Keywords: Information society, philosophy of power, management, globalization and innovation.

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Authors: Achuthsankar S. Nair, J. S. Jayasudha

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The ever increasing use of World Wide Web in the existing network, results in poor performance. Several techniques have been developed for reducing web traffic by compressing the size of the file, saving the web pages at the client side, changing the burst nature of traffic into constant rate etc. No single method was adequate enough to access the document instantly through the Internet. In this paper, adaptive hybrid algorithms are developed for reducing web traffic. Intelligent agents are used for monitoring the web traffic. Depending upon the bandwidth usage, user-s preferences, server and browser capabilities, intelligent agents use the best techniques to achieve maximum traffic reduction. Web caching, compression, filtering, optimization of HTML tags, and traffic dispersion are incorporated into this adaptive selection. Using this new hybrid technique, latency is reduced to 20 – 60 % and cache hit ratio is increased 40 – 82 %.

Keywords: Bandwidth, Congestion, Intelligent Agents, Prefetching, Web Caching.

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Authors: V. Sudha, D. Sriram Kumar

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a low complexity hybrid scheme using conventional selective mapping (C-SLM) and clipping algorithms to reduce the high peak-to-average power ratio (PAPR) of orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) signal. In the proposed scheme, the input data sequence (X) is divided into two sub-blocks, then clipping algorithm is applied to the first sub-block, whereas C-SLM algorithm is applied to the second sub-block in order to reduce both computational complexity and PAPR. The resultant time domain OFDM signal is obtained by combining the output of two sub-blocks. The simulation results show that the proposed hybrid scheme provides 0.45 dB PAPR reduction gain at CCDF value of 10-2 and 52% of computational complexity reduction when compared to C-SLM scheme at the expense of slight degradation in bit error rate (BER) performance.

Keywords: CCDF, Clipping, OFDM, PAPR, SLM.

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Authors: Nhon Do, Tam Pham

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Knowledge bases are basic components of expert systems or intelligent computational programs. Knowledge bases provide knowledge, events that serve deduction activity, computation and control. Therefore, researching and developing of models for knowledge representation play an important role in computer science, especially in Artificial Intelligence Science and intelligent educational software. In this paper, the extensive deduction computational model is proposed to design knowledge bases whose attributes are able to be real values or functional values. The system can also solve problems based on knowledge bases. Moreover, the models and algorithms are applied to produce the educational software for solving alternating current problems or solving set of equations automatically.

Keywords: Educational software, artificial intelligence, knowledge base systems, knowledge representation.

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Authors: R. Prabha, N. Ramaraj

Abstract:

Routing in adhoc networks is a challenge as nodes are mobile, and links are constantly created and broken. Present ondemand adhoc routing algorithms initiate route discovery after a path breaks, incurring significant cost to detect disconnection and establish a new route. Specifically, when a path is about to be broken, the source is warned of the likelihood of a disconnection. The source then initiates path discovery early, avoiding disconnection totally. A path is considered about to break when link availability decreases. This study modifies Adhoc On-demand Multipath Distance Vector routing (AOMDV) so that route handoff occurs through link availability estimation.

Keywords: Mobile Adhoc Network (MANET), Routing, Adhoc On-demand Multipath Distance Vector routing (AOMDV), Link Availability.

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Authors: Houda Abadlia, Nadia Smairi, Khaled Ghedira

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Multiobjective Particle Swarm Optimization (MOPSO) has shown an effective performance for solving test functions and real-world optimization problems. However, this method has a premature convergence problem, which may lead to lack of diversity. In order to improve its performance, this paper presents a hybrid approach which embedded the MOPSO into the island model and integrated a local search technique, Variable Neighborhood Search, to enhance the diversity into the swarm. Experiments on two series of test functions have shown the effectiveness of the proposed approach. A comparison with other evolutionary algorithms shows that the proposed approach presented a good performance in solving multiobjective optimization problems.

Keywords: Particle swarm optimization, migration, variable neighborhood search, multiobjective optimization.

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Authors: Jorge Maestre Vidal, Ana Lucila Sandoval Orozco, Luis Javier García Villalba

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With the increase in popularity of mobile devices, new and varied forms of malware have emerged. Consequently, the organizations for cyberdefense have echoed the need to deploy more effective defensive schemes adapted to the challenges posed by these recent monitoring environments. In order to contribute to their development, this paper presents a malware detection strategy for mobile devices based on sequence alignment algorithms. Unlike the previous proposals, only the system calls performed during the startup of applications are studied. In this way, it is possible to efficiently study in depth, the sequences of system calls executed by the applications just downloaded from app stores, and initialize them in a secure and isolated environment. As demonstrated in the performed experimentation, most of the analyzed malicious activities were successfully identified in their boot processes.

Keywords: Android, information security, intrusion detection systems, malware, mobile devices.

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Authors: K. Durairaj, I. N. Umar

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The asynchronous discussion forum is one of the most widely used activities in learning management system environment. Online forum allows participants to interact, construct knowledge, and can be used to complement face to face sessions in blended learning courses. However, to what extent do the students perceive the benefits or advantages of forum remain to be seen. Through content and social network analyses, instructors will be able to gauge the students’ engagement and knowledge construction level. Thus, this study aims to analyze the students’ level of knowledge construction and their participation level that occur through online discussion. It also attempts to investigate the relationship between the level of knowledge construction and their social interaction patterns. The sample involves 23 students undertaking a master course in one public university in Malaysia. The asynchronous discussion forum was conducted for three weeks as part of the course requirement. The finding indicates that the level of knowledge construction is quite low. Also, the density value of 0.11 indicating the overall communication among the participants in the forum is low. This study reveals that strong and significant correlations between SNA measures (in-degree centrality, out-degree centrality) and level of knowledge construction. Thus, allocating these active students in different group aids the interactive discussion takes place. Finally, based upon the findings, some recommendations to increase students’ level of knowledge construction and also for further research are proposed.

Keywords: Asynchronous Discussion Forums, Content Analysis, Knowledge Construction, Social Network Analysis.

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Authors: Yi-Ping Fang, Hsien-Ting Cheng

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Topical photodynamic therapy (PDT) with 5-aminolevulinic acid (ALA) is an alternative therapy for treating superficial cancer, especially for skin or oral cancer. ALA, a precursor of the photosensitizer protoporphyrin IX (PpIX), is present as zwitterions and hydrophilic property which make the low permeability through the cell membrane. Collagen is a traditional carrier; its molecular composed various amino acids which bear positive charge and negative charge. In order to utilize the ion-pairs with ALA and collagen, the study employed various pH values adjusting the net charge. The aim of this study was to compare a series collagen form, including solution, gel and sponge to investigate the topical delivery behavior of ALA. The in vivo confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM) study demonstrated that PpIX generation ability was different pattern after apply for 6 h. Gel type could generate high PpIX, and archived more deep of skin depth.

Keywords: 5-Aminolevulinic acid (ALA), Collagen, Ion-pairs, Penetration behavior

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Authors: Paulo Gomes, Adelaide Figueiredo

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We consider n individuals described by p standardized variables, represented by points of the surface of the unit hypersphere S_n-1. For a previous choice of n individuals we suppose that the set of observables variables comes from a mixture of bipolar Watson distribution defined on the hypersphere. EM and Dynamic Clusters algorithms are used for identification of such mixture. We obtain estimates of parameters for each Watson component and then a partition of the set of variables into homogeneous groups of variables. Additionally we will present a factor analysis model where unobservable factors are just the maximum likelihood estimators of Watson directional parameters, exactly the first principal component of data matrix associated to each group previously identified. Such alternative model it will yield us to directly interpretable solutions (simple structure), avoiding factors rotations.

Keywords: Dynamic Clusters algorithm, EM algorithm, Factor analysis model, Hierarchical Clustering, Watson distribution.

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Authors: Padmakumar S., Vivek Agarwal, Kallol Roy

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With the advent of inexpensive 32 bit floating point digital signal processor-s availability in market, many computationally intensive algorithms such as Kalman filter becomes feasible to implement in real time. Dynamic simulation of a self excited DC motor using second order state variable model and implementation of Kalman Filter in a floating point DSP TMS320C6713 is presented in this paper with an objective to introduce and implement such an algorithm, for beginners. A fractional hp DC motor is simulated in both Matlab® and DSP and the results are included. A step by step approach for simulation of DC motor in Matlab® and “C" routines in CC Studio® is also given. CC studio® project file details and environmental setting requirements are addressed. This tutorial can be used with 6713 DSK, which is based on floating point DSP and CC Studio either in hardware mode or in simulation mode.

Keywords: DC motor, DSP, Dynamic simulation, Kalman Filter

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Authors: J. Costa, M. Ortigueira, A. Batista, T. Paiva

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Sleep spindles are the most interesting hallmark of stage 2 sleep EEG. Their accurate identification in a polysomnographic signal is essential for sleep professionals to help them mark Stage 2 sleep. Sleep Spindles are also promising objective indicators for neurodegenerative disorders. Visual spindle scoring however is a tedious workload. In this paper three different approaches are used for the automatic detection of sleep spindles: Short Time Fourier Transform, Wavelet Transform and Wave Morphology for Spindle Detection. In order to improve the results, a combination of the three detectors is presented and comparison with human expert scorers is performed. The best performance is obtained with a combination of the three algorithms which resulted in a sensitivity and specificity of 94% when compared to human expert scorers.

Keywords: EEG, Short Time Fourier Transform, Sleep Spindles, Wave Morphology for Spindle Detection, Wavelet Transform.

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Authors: A. Faro, D. Giordano, F. Maiorana

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Data mining uses a variety of techniques each of which is useful for some particular task. It is important to have a deep understanding of each technique and be able to perform sophisticated analysis. In this article we describe a tool built to simulate a variation of the Kohonen network to perform unsupervised clustering and support the entire data mining process up to results visualization. A graphical representation helps the user to find out a strategy to optmize classification by adding, moving or delete a neuron in order to change the number of classes. The tool is also able to automatically suggest a strategy for number of classes optimization.The tool is used to classify macroeconomic data that report the most developed countries? import and export. It is possible to classify the countries based on their economic behaviour and use an ad hoc tool to characterize the commercial behaviour of a country in a selected class from the analysis of positive and negative features that contribute to classes formation.

Keywords: Unsupervised classification, Kohonen networks, macroeconomics, Visual data mining, cluster interpretation.

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Authors: Soon-ok Myong, B.G. Nurzhanov

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This paper applies an anthropological approach to illuminate the dynamic cultural geography of Kazakhstani Korean ethnicity focusing on its turning point, the historic “Seoul Olympic Games in 1988." The Korean ethnic group was easily considered as a harmonious and homogeneous community by outsiders, but there existed deep-seated conflicts and hostilities within the ethnic group. The majority-s oppositional dichotomy of superiority and inferiority toward the minority was continuously reorganized and reinforced by difference in experience, memory and sentiment. However, such a chronic exclusive boundary was collapsed following the patriotism ignited by the Olympics held in their mother country. This paper explores the fluidity of subject by formation of the boundary in which constructed cultural differences are continuously essentialized and reproduced, and by dissolution of cultural barrier in certain contexts.

Keywords: Former Soviet Korean's Russianization, inferior/superior dichotomy, Seoul Olympic Games, subject's fluidity.

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Authors: Nan Li, Ying Wang

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Using entropy weight and TOPSIS method, a comprehensive evaluation is done on the development level of Chinese regional service industry in this paper. Firstly, based on existing research results, an evaluation index system is constructed from the scale of development, the industrial structure and the economic benefits. An evaluation model is then built up based on entropy weight and TOPSIS, and an empirical analysis is conducted on the development level of service industries in 31 Chinese provinces during 2006 and 2009 from the two dimensions or time series and cross section, which provides new idea for assessing regional service industry. Furthermore, the 31 provinces are classified into four categories based on the evaluation results, and deep analysis is carried out on the evaluation results.

Keywords: Chinese regional service industry, Development level, Entropy weight, TOPSIS Evaluation Method

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Authors: J. Kluabwang

Abstract:

An economic operation scheduling problem of a hydro-thermal power generation system has been properly solved by the proposed multipath adaptive tabu search algorithm (MATS). Four reservoirs with their own hydro plants and another one thermal plant are integrated to be a studied system used to formulate the objective function under complicated constraints, eg water managements, power balance and thermal generator limits. MATS with four subsearch units (ATSs) and two stages of discarding mechanism (DM), has been setting and trying to solve the problem through 25 trials under function evaluation criterion. It is shown that MATS can provide superior results with respect to single ATS and other previous methods, genetic algorithms (GA) and differential evolution (DE).

Keywords: Hydro-thermal scheduling problem, economic dispatch, adaptive tabu search, multipath adaptive tabu search

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Authors: A. J. Otjen

Abstract:

Native American communities are struggling with unemployment and depressed economies. A major cause is a lack of business knowledge, education, and cultural desire. And yet, in the history of the American West, Native Americans were considered the best traders and negotiators for everything from furs to weapons to buffalo. To improve these economies, there has been an effort to reintroduce that heritage to todays and tomorrows generation of tribal members, such Crow, Cheyenne, and Blackfeet. Professors at the College of Business Montana State University-Billings (MSUB) teach tribal students in Montana to create business plans. These plans have won national small business plan competitions. The teaching and advising method used at MSUB is uniquely successful as theses business students are now five time national champions. This article reviews the environment and the method of learning to achieve a winning small business plan with Native American students. It discusses the five plans that became national champions. And it discusses the problems and solutions discovered in the process of achieving results. Students who participated in this endeavor have graduated and become CPAs, MBAs, and gainfully employed in their chosen professions. They have also worked to improve the economies of their native lands and homes. By educating members of these communities with business strategy and plan development, they are better able to impact their own economies.

Keywords: Entrepreneurship, Native Americans economies, small businesses.

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Authors: Justinian Anatory, Ekael Stephen Manase

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The use of mobile phones is growing tremendously all over the world. In Tanzania there are a number of operators licensed by Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority (TCRA) aiming at attracting customers into their networks. So far telecommunications market competition has been very stiff. Various measures are being taken by mobile operators to survive in the market. Such measure include introducing of different air time bundles on daily, weekly and monthly at lower tariffs. Other measures include the introduction of normal tariff, tourist package and one network. Despite of all these strategies, there is a dynamic competition in the market which needs to be explored. Some influences which attract customers to choose a certain mobile operator are of particular interest. This paper is investigating if the network effects and Quality of Services (QoS) influence mobile customers in selection of their mobile network operators. Seventy seven students from high learning institutions in Dodoma Municipality in Tanzania participated in responding to prepared questionnaires. The data was analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) Software. The results indicate that, network coverage does influence customers in selection of mobile operators. In addition, this paper proposes further research in some areas especially where the study came up with different findings from what the theory has in place.

Keywords: Network effects, Quality of services, Consumer Buying, mobile operators.

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Authors: Belabbas Yagoubi, Yahya Slimani

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Workload and resource management are two essential functions provided at the service level of the grid software infrastructure. To improve the global throughput of these software environments, workloads have to be evenly scheduled among the available resources. To realize this goal several load balancing strategies and algorithms have been proposed. Most strategies were developed in mind, assuming homogeneous set of sites linked with homogeneous and fast networks. However for computational grids we must address main new issues, namely: heterogeneity, scalability and adaptability. In this paper, we propose a layered algorithm which achieve dynamic load balancing in grid computing. Based on a tree model, our algorithm presents the following main features: (i) it is layered; (ii) it supports heterogeneity and scalability; and, (iii) it is totally independent from any physical architecture of a grid.

Keywords: Grid computing, load balancing, workload, tree based model.

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Authors: Noor Suhana Sulaiman, Rohani Abu Bakar, Norrozila Sulaiman

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Intrusion Detection System is significant in network security. It detects and identifies intrusion behavior or intrusion attempts in a computer system by monitoring and analyzing the network packets in real time. In the recent year, intelligent algorithms applied in the intrusion detection system (IDS) have been an increasing concern with the rapid growth of the network security. IDS data deals with a huge amount of data which contains irrelevant and redundant features causing slow training and testing process, higher resource consumption as well as poor detection rate. Since the amount of audit data that an IDS needs to examine is very large even for a small network, classification by hand is impossible. Hence, the primary objective of this review is to review the techniques prior to classification process suit to IDS data.

Keywords: Intrusion Detection System, security, soft computing, classification.

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Authors: Sumeet S. Nisale, Chandan J. Bharambe, Vidya N.More

Abstract:

We propose our genuine research of geometric moments which detects the mineral inadequacy in the frail groundnut plant. This plant is prone to many deficiencies as a result of the variance in the soil nutrients. By analyzing the leaves of the plant, we detect the visual symptoms that are not recognizable to the naked eyes. We have collected about 160 samples of leaves from the nearby fields. The images have been taken by keeping every leaf into a black box to avoid the external interference. For the first time, it has been possible to provide the farmer with the stages of deficiencies. This paper has applied the algorithms successfully to many other plants like Lady-s finger, Green Bean, Lablab Bean, Chilli and Tomato. But we submit the results of the groundnut predominantly. The accuracy of our algorithm and method is almost 93%. This will again pioneer a kind of green revolution in the field of agriculture and will be a boon to that field.

Keywords: Component image, geometric moments, average intensity, average affected area, black box

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Authors: Y. Wang

Abstract:

The Traveling salesman problem (TSP) is NP-hard in combinatorial optimization. The research shows the algorithms for TSP on the sparse graphs have the shorter computation time than those for TSP according to the complete graphs. We present an improved iterative algorithm to compute the sparse graphs for TSP by frequency graphs computed with frequency quadrilaterals. The iterative algorithm is enhanced by adjusting two parameters of the algorithm. The computation time of the algorithm is O(CN_maxn²) where C is the iterations, N_max is the maximum number of frequency quadrilaterals containing each edge and n is the scale of TSP. The experimental results showed the computed sparse graphs generally have less than 5n edges for most of these Euclidean instances. Moreover, the maximum degree and minimum degree of the vertices in the sparse graphs do not have much difference. Thus, the computation time of the methods to resolve the TSP on these sparse graphs will be greatly reduced.

Keywords: Frequency quadrilateral, iterative algorithm, sparse graph, traveling salesman problem.

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Authors: Wan Chian Li, Justie Su-Tzu Juan, Yi-Chun Wang, Shu-Chuan Chen

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The evolutionary tree is an important topic in bioinformation. In 2006, Chen and Lindsay proposed a new method to build the mixture tree from DNA sequences. Mixture tree is a new type evolutionary tree, and it has two additional information besides the information of ordinary evolutionary tree. One of the information is time parameter, and the other is the set of mutated sites. In 2008, Lin and Juan proposed an algorithm to compute the distance between two mixture trees. Their algorithm computes the distance with only considering the time parameter between two mixture trees. In this paper, we proposes a method to measure the similarity of two mixture trees with considering the set of mutated sites and develops two algorithm to compute the distance between two mixture trees. The time complexity of these two proposed algorithms are O(n2 × max{h(T1), h(T2)}) and O(n2), respectively

Keywords: evolutionary tree, mixture tree, mutated site, distance.

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Authors: Micheal Olaolu Arowolo, Muhammad Azam, Fei He, Mihail Popescu, Dong Xu

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As the quantity of biological articles rises, so does the number of biological route figures. Each route figure shows gene names and relationships. Manually annotating pathway diagrams is time-consuming. Advanced image understanding models could speed up curation, but they must be more precise. There is rich information in biological pathway figures. The first step to performing image understanding of these figures is to recognize gene names automatically. Classical optical character recognition methods have been employed for gene name recognition, but they are not optimized for literature mining data. This study devised a method to recognize an image bounding box of gene name as a photo using deep Siamese neural network models to outperform the existing methods using ResNet, DenseNet and Inception architectures, the results obtained about 84% accuracy.

Keywords: Biological pathway, gene identification, object detection, Siamese network, ResNet.

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Authors: David Tena-Gago, Jose M. Alcaraz Calero, Qi Wang

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The evolution and integration of automated vehicles have become more and more tangible in recent years. State-of-the-art technological advances in the field of camera-based Artificial Intelligence (AI) and computer vision greatly favor the performance and reliability of Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS), leading to a greater knowledge of vehicular operation and resembling the human behaviour. However, the exclusive use of this technology still seems insufficient to control the vehicular operation at 100%. To reveal the degree of accuracy of the current camera-based automated driving AI modules, this paper studies the structure and behavior of one of the main solutions in a controlled testing environment. The results obtained clearly outline the lack of reliability when using exclusively the AI model in the perception stage, thereby entailing using additional complementary sensors to improve its safety and performance.

Keywords: Accuracy assessment, AI-Driven Mobility, Artificial Intelligence, automated vehicles.

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Authors: Anel Hasić, Naser Prljača

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In the domain of autonomous or piloted flights, the accurate control of quadrotor trajectories is of paramount significance for large numbers of tasks. These adaptable aerial platforms find applications that span from high-precision aerial photography and surveillance to demanding search and rescue missions. Among the fundamental challenges confronting quadrotor operation is the demand for accurate following of desired flight paths. To address this control challenge, among others, two celebrated well-established control strategies have emerged as noteworthy contenders: Model Predictive Control (MPC) and Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) control. In this work, we focus on the extensive examination of MPC and PID control techniques by using comprehensive simulation studies in MATLAB/Simulink. Intensive simulation results demonstrate the performance of the studied control algorithms.

Keywords: MATLAB, MPC, Model Predictive Control, PID, Proportional-Integral-Derivative, quadcopter, Simulink.

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Authors: Keivan Abdollahi, Alireza Mortezaei

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The main objective of seismic rehabilitation in the foundations is decreasing the range of horizontal and vertical vibrations and omitting high frequencies contents under the seismic loading. In this regard, the advantages of micropiles network is utilized. Reduction in vibration range of foundation can be achieved by using high dynamic rigidness module such as deep foundations. In addition, natural frequency of pile and soil system increases in regard to rising of system rigidness. Accordingly, the main strategy is decreasing of horizontal and vertical seismic vibrations of the structure. In this case, considering the impact of foundation, pile and improved soil foundation is a primary concern. Therefore, in this paper, effective factors are studied on the seismic rehabilitation of foundations applying network micropiles in sandy soils with nonlinear reaction.

Keywords: Micropile network, rehabilitation, vibration, seismic load.

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Authors: Lily Ingsrisawang, Supawadee Ingsriswang, Saisuda Somchit, Prasert Aungsuratana, Warawut Khantiyanan

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This paper presents the methodology from machine learning approaches for short-term rain forecasting system. Decision Tree, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were applied to develop classification and prediction models for rainfall forecasts. The goals of this presentation are to demonstrate (1) how feature selection can be used to identify the relationships between rainfall occurrences and other weather conditions and (2) what models can be developed and deployed for predicting the accurate rainfall estimates to support the decisions to launch the cloud seeding operations in the northeastern part of Thailand. Datasets collected during 2004-2006 from the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Hua Hin, Prachuap Khiri khan, the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Pimai, Nakhon Ratchasima and Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). A total of 179 records with 57 features was merged and matched by unique date. There are three main parts in this work. Firstly, a decision tree induction algorithm (C4.5) was used to classify the rain status into either rain or no-rain. The overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 94.41% with the five-fold cross validation. The C4.5 algorithm was also used to classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain (0-0.1 mm.), few-rain (0.1- 10 mm.), and moderate-rain (>10 mm.) and the overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 62.57%. Secondly, an ANN was applied to predict the rainfall amount and the root mean square error (RMSE) were used to measure the training and testing errors of the ANN. It is found that the ANN yields a lower RMSE at 0.171 for daily rainfall estimates, when compared to next-day and next-2-day estimation. Thirdly, the ANN and SVM techniques were also used to classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain, few-rain, and moderate-rain as above. The results achieved in 68.15% and 69.10% of overall accuracy of same-day prediction for the ANN and SVM models, respectively. The obtained results illustrated the comparison of the predictive power of different methods for rainfall estimation.

Keywords: Machine learning, decision tree, artificial neural network, support vector machine, root mean square error.

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