Search results for: lower bound method

Authors: Nga T.T. Mai, Emilía Martinsdóttir, Kolbrún Sveinsdóttir, Gudrun Olafsdóttir, Sigurjón Arason

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Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) is an important commercial fish and shows to be more and more demanded for human consumption. Therefore, it is very important to find good methods for monitoring the freshness of the fish in order to keep it in the best quality for human consumption. In this study, the fish was stored in ice up to 2 weeks. Quality changes during storage were assessed by the Quality Index Method (QIM), quantitative descriptive analysis (QDA) and Torry scheme, by texture measurements: puncture tests and Texture Profile Analysis (TPA) tests on texture analyzer TA.XT2i, and by electronic nose (e-nose) measurements using FreshSense instrument. Storage time of herring in ice could be estimated by QIM with ± 2 days using 5 herring per lot. No correlation between instrumental texture parameters and storage time or between sensory and instrumental texture variables was found. E-nose measurements could be use to detect the onset of spoilage.

Keywords: Herring, Quality Index Method (QIM), freshness, storage time.

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Authors: Hadi Barghlame, M. A. Lotfollahi-Yaghin

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In this paper, the torsion capacity of ultimate point on rectangular beams with spiral reinforcements in the torsion direction and its anti-direction are investigated. Therefore, models of above-mentioned beams have been numerically analyzed under various loads using ANSYS software. It was observed that, spirallyreinforced prismatic beam and beam with spiral links, show lower torsion capacity than beam with normal links also in anti-direction. The result is that the concrete regulations are violated in this case.

Keywords: RC beam, ultimate torsion, finite element, prismatic beams, spirally tie.

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Authors: Zhang Jun-Tao, Hou Zhong-xi, Guo Zheng, Chen Li-li

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This article discusses stress analysis and the shape characteristics of the inflatable wing, and then introduces the design method of inflatable wing, in order to accurately approximate a standard airfoil. It specifically analyses the aerodynamic characteristics of the inflatable wing with the method of CFD, along with comparing to standard airfoil, afterwards we carries out the manufacture of inflatable wing and the flight test.

Keywords: Inflatable wing, Stress analysis, Aerodynamic characteristics, Flight test

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Authors: Fulya Zaralı, Harun Resit Yazgan

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Logistics centers represent areas that all national and international logistics and activities related to logistics can be implemented by the various businesses. Logistics centers have a key importance in joining the transport stream and the transport system operations. Therefore, it is important where these centers are positioned to be effective and efficient and to show the expected performance of the centers. In this study, the location selection problem to position the logistics center is discussed. Alternative centers are evaluated according certain criteria. The most appropriate center is identified using the axiomatic design method.

Keywords: Logistic center, axiomatic design, facility location, information systems.

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Authors: Bo Liu, Qingshan Kong, Weiqing Huang

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With the rapid development of modern communication, diagnosing the fiber-optic quality and faults in real-time is widely focused. In this paper, a Labview-based system is proposed for fiber-optic faults detection. The wavelet threshold denoising method combined with Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is applied to denoise the optical time domain reflectometer (OTDR) signal. Then the method based on Gabor representation is used to detect events. Experimental measurements show that signal to noise ratio (SNR) of the OTDR signal is improved by 1.34dB on average, compared with using the wavelet threshold denosing method. The proposed system has a high score in event detection capability and accuracy. The maximum detectable fiber length of the proposed Labview-based system can be 65km.

Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition (EMD), events detection, Gabor transform, optical time domain reflectometer (OTDR), wavelet threshold denoising.

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Authors: Roengruen P., Tipsuwanporn V., Puawade P., Numsomran A.

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Smith Predictor control is theoretically a good solution to the problem of controlling the time delay systems. However, it seldom gets use because it is almost impossible to find out a precise mathematical model of the practical system and very sensitive to uncertain system with variable time-delay. In this paper is concerned with a design method of smith predictor for temperature control system by Coefficient Diagram Method (CDM). The simulation results show that the control system with smith predictor design by CDM is stable and robust whilst giving the desired time domain system performance.

Keywords: CDM, Smith Predictor, temperature process

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Authors: Azam Anaraki Firooz, Ali Reza Mahjoub, Reza Donyaei Ziba

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A simple and dexterous in situ method was introduced to load CdS nanocrystals into organofunctionalized mesoporous, which used an ion-exchange method. The products were extensively characterized by combined spectroscopic methods. X- ray diffraction (XRD) and high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) demonstrated both the maintenance of pore symmetry (space group p6mm) of SBA-15 and the presence of CdS nanocrystals with uniform sizes of about 6 - 8 nm inside the functionalized SBA-15 channels. These mesoporous silica-supported CdS composites showed room temperature photoluminescence properties with a blue shift, indicating the quantum size effect of nanocrystalline CdS.

Keywords: Semiconductors, luminescence, mesoporous material, CdS.

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Authors: Milan Rippel, Petr Teply

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This paper focuses on operational risk measurement techniques and on economic capital estimation methods. A data sample of operational losses provided by an anonymous Central European bank is analyzed using several approaches. Loss Distribution Approach and scenario analysis method are considered. Custom plausible loss events defined in a particular scenario are merged with the original data sample and their impact on capital estimates and on the financial institution is evaluated. Two main questions are assessed – What is the most appropriate statistical method to measure and model operational loss data distribution? and What is the impact of hypothetical plausible events on the financial institution? The g&h distribution was evaluated to be the most suitable one for operational risk modeling. The method based on the combination of historical loss events modeling and scenario analysis provides reasonable capital estimates and allows for the measurement of the impact of extreme events on banking operations.

Keywords: operational risk, scenario analysis, economic capital, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, stress testing

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Authors: H. Abaali, T. Talbi, R.Skouri

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This paper presents a comparative study of the Gauss Seidel and Newton-Raphson polar coordinates methods for power flow analysis. The effectiveness of these methods are evaluated and tested through a different IEEE bus test system on the basis of number of iteration, computational time, tolerance value and convergence.

Keywords: Convergence time, Gauss-Seidel Method, Newton-Raphson Method, number of iteration, power flow analysis.

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Authors: Katsuyuki Umezawa, Takashi Tashiro, Satoru Tezuka

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Recently, various services such as television and the Internet have come to be received through various terminals. However, we could gain greater convenience by receiving these services through cellular phone terminals when we go out and then continuing to receive the same services through a large screen digital television after we have come home. However, it is necessary to go through the same authentication processing again when using TVs after we have come home. In this study, we have developed an authentication method that enables users to switch terminals in environments in which the user receives service from a server through a terminal. Specifically, the method simplifies the authentication of the server side when switching from one terminal to another terminal by using previously authenticated information.

Keywords: Authentication, Cookie, Federation, GBA, IPSec

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Authors: Sung-Chul Hwang, Di Ren, Sang-Moon Yoon, Jong-Chun Park, Abbas Khayyer, Hitoshi Gotoh

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This paper presents a fully Lagrangian coupled Fluid-Structure Interaction (FSI) solver for simulations of fluid-structure interactions, which is based on the Moving Particle Semi-implicit (MPS) method to solve the governing equations corresponding to incompressible flows as well as elastic structures. The developed solver is verified by reproducing the high velocity impact loads of deformable thin wedges with three different materials such as mild steel, aluminium and tin during water entry. The present simulation results for aluminium are compared with analytical solution derived from the hydrodynamic Wagner model and linear Wan’s theory. And also, the impact pressure and strain on the water entry wedge with three different materials, such as mild steel, aluminium and tin, are simulated and the effects of hydro-elasticity are discussed.

Keywords: Fluid-structure interaction (FSI), Moving Particle Semi-implicit (MPS) method, Elastic structure, Incompressible fluid Wedge slamming impact.

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Authors: Prabh Preet Singh, Harpreet Kaur

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This paper presents a method for single image dehazing based on dark channel prior (DCP). The property that the intensity of the dark channel gives an approximate thickness of the haze is used to estimate the transmission and atmospheric light. Instead of constant atmospheric light, the proposed method employs scene depth to estimate spatially varying atmospheric light as it truly occurs in nature. Haze imaging model together with the soft matting method has been used in this work to produce high quality haze free image. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach produces better results than the classic DCP approach as color fidelity and contrast of haze free image are improved and no over-saturation in the sky region is observed. Further, lifting Haar wavelet transform is employed to reduce overall execution time by a factor of two to three as compared to the conventional approach.

Keywords: Depth based atmospheric light, dark channel prior, lifting wavelet.

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Authors: Marichela Sepe

Abstract:

The sustainability of a place depends on a series of factors which contribute to the quality of life, sense of place and recognition of identity. An activity like walking, which in itself is obviously ''sustainable'', can become non sustainable if the context in which it is carried out does not meet the conditions for an adequate quality of life. This work is aimed at proposing the analytical method of Place Maker to identify the elements that do not feature in traditional mapping and which constitute the contemporary identity of the places, and the relative complex map to represent those elements and support sustainable urban identity design. The method's potential for areas with a predominantly pedestrian vocation is illustrated by means of the case study of the Ramblas in Barcelona.

Keywords: Place-identity, PlaceMaker, sustainability, walkability.

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Authors: Abdul Rofiq Badril Rizal Muzammil

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Education is an absolute necessity for human’s life that one must fulfill for the entire life. Without education it is impossible for human to develop her/himself well. The education process is an effort to maintain a good behavior within one’s life. Good behavior will be absolutely achieved if it is taught to early-aged children. This paper focuses on how the story telling method enables teachers to make the students have the construction of good behavior and obtain the goal of national education in Indonesia. The targeted students would involve students in As-Solihin kindergarten, Salafiyah-Syafi’iyah Mumbulsari, Jember, Indonesia. Story is what early-aged children like most. Thus, it is a gorgeous chance to make story telling activity as a method to invest Islamic education values to children. This paper, however, also focuses on some deliberately important aspects which of course teachers need to consider including objectives and strategies of the method’s implementation. The teachers will be in need of knowing each student’s characteristic in the classroom so that it would enable them to select appropriate stories that fit best to early aged students. The selected stories are taken from Islamic stories that tell the life of Prophet and heroes of Islam as well as well-known persons in Islam. In addition, there will be a number of activities done in the classroom after the delivery of the story is over on purpose of leading students to have the fundamental foundation of how to build self-awareness in order they could understand better about the importance of being a well-behaved person. After reviewing relevant theories, secondary research and scholars’ opinion involved in all aspects of early-aged children behavior, the author concludes that by leveraging trusted sources, a proactive, co-operative and creative strategy, the teacher can successfully build up children’s good behavior by instilling the Islamic value toward early-aged children through story telling method.

Keywords: Story, Islam, children, early age.

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Authors: M. Sedighizadeh, A. Rezazadeh

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This paper presents a method for the optimal allocation of Distributed generation in distribution systems. In this paper, our aim would be optimal distributed generation allocation for voltage profile improvement and loss reduction in distribution network. Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used as the solving tool, which referring two determined aim; the problem is defined and objective function is introduced. Considering to fitness values sensitivity in genetic algorithm process, there is needed to apply load flow for decision-making. Load flow algorithm is combined appropriately with GA, till access to acceptable results of this operation. We used MATPOWER package for load flow algorithm and composed it with our Genetic Algorithm. The suggested method is programmed under MATLAB software and applied ETAP software for evaluating of results correctness. It was implemented on part of Tehran electricity distributing grid. The resulting operation of this method on some testing system is illuminated improvement of voltage profile and loss reduction indexes.

Keywords: Distributed Generation, Allocation, Voltage Profile, losses, Genetic Algorithm.

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Authors: Marc Veillette, Mostafa Chamoumi, Nathalie Faucheux, Michèle Heitz

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Biodiesel is traditionally produced from oleaginous plants. On the other hand, increasing biodiesel production from these raw materials could create problems of food supply. Producing biodiesel from microalgae could help to overcome this difficulty, because microalgae are rich in lipids and do not compete for arable lands. However, no studies had compared vegetable and microalgae oil-based biodiesel in terms of yield, viscosity and heat of combustion. In the present study, commercial canola and microalgae oil were therefore transesterified with methanol under a homogenous alkali catalyst (potassium hydroxide) at 100oC for 1h. The result showed that microalgae-based oil has a higher yield in biodiesel with 89.7% (g biodiesel/g oil) and a lower kinematic viscosity (22oC) of 4.31 mm/s2 than canola oil.

Keywords: Biodiesel, microalgae, canola, alkalitransesterification

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Authors: Yun-na Wu, Zhen Wang

Abstract:

Due to the economic downturn and the deterioration of the living environment, the development of residential buildings as high energy consuming building is gradually changing from “extensive” to green building in China. So, the evaluation system of green building is continuously improved, but the current evaluation work has the following problems: (1) There are differences in the cost of the actual investment and the purchasing power of residents, also construction target of green residential building is single and lacks multi-objective performance development. (2) Green building evaluation lacks regional characteristics and cannot reflect the different regional residents demand. (3) In the process of determining the criteria weight, the experts’ judgment matrix is difficult to meet the requirement of consistency. Therefore, to solve those problems, questionnaires which are about the green residential building for Ningxia area are distributed, and the results of questionnaires can feedback the purchasing power of residents and the acceptance of the green building cost. Secondly, combined with the geographical features of Ningxia minority areas, the evaluation criteria system of green residential building is constructed. Finally, using the improved group AHP method and the grey clustering method, the criteria weight is determined, and a real case is evaluated, which is located in Xing Qing district, Ningxia. A conclusion can be obtained that the professional evaluation for this project and good social recognition is basically the same.

Keywords: Evaluation, green residential building, grey clustering method, group AHP.

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Authors: Ayfer Kilicarslan, Kubra Onol, Sercan Basit, Muhlis Nezihi Saridede

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Chalcopyrite (CuFeS2) is the most common primary mineral used for the commercial production of copper. The low dissolution efficiency of chalcopyrite in sulfate media has prevented an efficient industrial leaching of this mineral in sulfate media. Ferric ions, bacteria, oxygen and other oxidants have been used as oxidizing agents in the leaching of chalcopyrite in sulfate and chloride media under atmospheric or pressure leaching conditions. Two leaching methods were studied to evaluate chalcopyrite (CuFeS2) dissolution in acid media. First, the conventional oxidative acid leaching method was carried out using sulfuric acid (H2SO4) and potassium dichromate (K2Cr2O7) as oxidant at atmospheric pressure. Second, microwave-assisted acid leaching was performed using the microwave accelerated reaction system (MARS) for same reaction media. Parameters affecting the copper extraction such as leaching time, leaching temperature, concentration of H2SO4 and concentration of K2Cr2O7 were investigated. The results of conventional acid leaching experiments were compared to the microwave leaching method. It was found that the copper extraction obtained under high temperature and high concentrations of oxidant with microwave leaching is higher than those obtained conventionally. 81% copper extraction was obtained by the conventional oxidative acid leaching method in 180 min, with the concentration of 0.3 mol/L K2Cr2O7 in 0.5M H2SO4 at 50 ºC, while 93.5% copper extraction was obtained in 60 min with microwave leaching method under same conditions.

Keywords: Extraction, copper, microwave-assisted leaching, chalcopyrite, potassium dichromate.

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Authors: P. N. Hrisheekesha, Jaydev Sharma

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In this paper, a method based on Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA) has been presented for the Volt / Var control in power distribution systems with dispersed generation (DG). Genetic algorithm approach is used due to its broad applicability, ease of use and high accuracy. The proposed method is better suited for volt/var control problems. A multi-objective optimization problem has been formulated for the volt/var control of the distribution system. The non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm based method proposed in this paper, alleviates the problem of tuning the weighting factors required in solving the multi-objective volt/var control optimization problems. Based on the simulation studies carried out on the distribution system, the proposed scheme has been found to be simple, accurate and easy to apply to solve the multiobjective volt/var control optimization problem of the distribution system with dispersed generation.

Keywords: Dispersed Generation, Distribution System, Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm, Voltage / Reactive powercontrol.

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Authors: Pavel V. Balabanov, Daria A. Liubimova, Aleksandr P. Savenkov

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The increase of technogenic and natural accidents, accompanied by air pollution, for example, by combustion products, leads to the necessity of respiratory protection. This work is devoted to the development of a calorimetric method and a device which allows investigating quickly the kinetics of carbon dioxide sorption by chemisorbents on the base of potassium superoxide in order to assess the protective properties of respiratory protective closed circuit apparatus. The features of the traditional approach for determining the sorption properties in a thin layer of chemisorbent are described, as well as methods and devices, which can be used for the sorption kinetics study. The authors developed an approach (as opposed to the traditional approach) based on the power measurement of internal heat sources in the chemisorbent layer. The emergence of the heat sources is a result of exothermic reaction of carbon dioxide sorption. This approach eliminates the necessity of chemical analysis of samples and can significantly reduce the time and material expenses during chemisorbents testing. Error of determining the volume fraction of adsorbed carbon dioxide by the developed method does not exceed 12%. Taking into account the efficiency of the method, we consider that it is a good alternative to traditional methods of chemical analysis under the assessment of the protection sorbents quality.

Keywords: Carbon dioxide chemisorption, exothermic reaction, internal heat sources, respiratory protective apparatus.

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Authors: Ram Kumar Soni, Alok Jain, Rajiv Saxena

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This paper proposes an efficient method for the design of two channel quadrature mirror filter (QMF) bank. To achieve minimum value of reconstruction error near to perfect reconstruction, a linear optimization process has been proposed. Prototype low pass filter has been designed using Kaiser window function. The modified algorithm has been developed to optimize the reconstruction error using linear objective function through iteration method. The result obtained, show that the performance of the proposed algorithm is better than that of the already exists methods.

Keywords: Filterbank, near perfect reconstruction, Kaiserwindow, QMF.

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Authors: Davod Khojasteh Salkuyeh

Abstract:

An important task in solving second order linear ordinary differential equations by the finite difference is to choose a suitable stepsize h. In this paper, by using the stochastic arithmetic, the CESTAC method and the CADNA library we present a procedure to estimate the optimal stepsize hopt, the stepsize which minimizes the global error consisting of truncation and round-off error.

Keywords: Ordinary differential equations, optimal stepsize, error, stochastic arithmetic, CESTAC, CADNA.

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Authors: Ellips Masehian, Davoud Sedighizadeh

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This paper reviews the major contributions to the Motion Planning (MP) field throughout a 35-year period, from classic approaches to heuristic algorithms. Due to the NP-Hardness of the MP problem, heuristic methods have outperformed the classic approaches and have gained wide popularity. After surveying around 1400 papers in the field, the amount of existing works for each method is identified and classified. Especially, the history and applications of numerous heuristic methods in MP is investigated. The paper concludes with comparative tables and graphs demonstrating the frequency of each MP method's application, and so can be used as a guideline for MP researchers.

Keywords: Robot motion planning, Heuristic algorithms.

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Authors: A. Goi, M. Trapido, N. Kulik

Abstract:

The hydrogen peroxide treatment was able to remediate chlorophenols, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, diesel and transformer oil contaminated soil. Chemical treatment of contaminants adsorbed in peat resulted in lower contaminants- removal and required higher addition of chemicals than the treatment of contaminants in sand. The hydrogen peroxide treatment was found to be feasible for soil remediation at natural soil pH. Contaminants in soil could degrade with the addition of hydrogen peroxide only indicating the ability of transition metals ions and minerals of these metals presented in soil to catalyse the reaction of hydrogen peroxide decomposition.

Keywords: Hydrogen peroxide, oxidation, soil treatment, decontamination.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

Uncertainty set theory is a generalization of fuzzy set theory and intuitionistic fuzzy set theory. It serves as an effective tool for dealing with inconsistent, imprecise, and vague information. The technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method is a multiple-attribute method used to identify solutions from a finite set of alternatives. It simultaneously minimizes the distance from an ideal point and maximizes the distance from a nadir point. In this paper, an extension of the TOPSIS method for multiple attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) based on uncertainty sets is presented. In uncertainty decision analysis, decision-makers express information about attribute values and weights using uncertainty numbers to select the best stealth combat aircraft.

Keywords: Uncertainty set, stealth combat aircraft selection multiple criteria decision-making analysis, MCDM, uncertainty decision analysis, TOPSIS

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Authors: C. Leroy, G. Oger, D. Le Touzé, B. Alessandrini

Abstract:

A Finite Volume method based on Characteristic Fluxes for compressible fluids is developed. An explicit cell-centered resolution is adopted, where second and third order accuracy is provided by using two different MUSCL schemes with Minmod, Sweby or Superbee limiters for the hyperbolic part. Few different times integrator is used and be describe in this paper. Resolution is performed on a generic unstructured Cartesian grid, where solid boundaries are handled by a Cut-Cell method. Interfaces are explicitely advected in a non-diffusive way, ensuring local mass conservation. An improved cell cutting has been developed to handle boundaries of arbitrary geometrical complexity. Instead of using a polygon clipping algorithm, we use the Voxel traversal algorithm coupled with a local floodfill scanline to intersect 2D or 3D boundary surface meshes with the fixed Cartesian grid. Small cells stability problem near the boundaries is solved using a fully conservative merging method. Inflow and outflow conditions are also implemented in the model. The solver is validated on 2D academic test cases, such as the flow past a cylinder. The latter test cases are performed both in the frame of the body and in a fixed frame where the body is moving across the mesh. Adaptive Cartesian grid is provided by Paramesh without complex geometries for the moment.

Keywords: Finite volume method, cartesian grid, compressible solver, complex geometries, Paramesh.

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Authors: U. Amin, A. Talib, S. A. Qureshi, M. J. Hossain, G. Ahmad

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The choice evaluation between oil-immersed and dry-type transformers is often controlled by cost, location, and application. This paper compares the electrical performance of liquid- filled and dry-type transformers, which will assist the customer to choose the right and efficient ones for particular applications. An accurate assessment of the time-average flux density, electric field intensity and voltage distribution in an oil-insulated and a dry-type transformer have been computed and investigated. The detailed transformer modeling and analysis has been carried out to determine electrical parameter distributions. The models of oil-immersed and dry-type transformers are developed and solved by using the finite element method (FEM) to compare the electrical parameters. The effects of non-uniform and non-coherent voltage gradient, flux density and electric field distribution on the power losses and insulation properties of transformers are studied in detail. The results show that, for the same voltage and kilo-volt-ampere (kVA) rating, oil-immersed transformers have better insulation properties and less hysteresis losses than the dry-type.

Keywords: Finite element method, flux density, transformer, voltage gradient.

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Authors: Muhammad Abdullah Arafat, Nahrin Nowrose

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Wireless charging of electric vehicles is becoming more and more attractive as large amount of power can now be transferred to a reasonable distance using magnetic resonance coupling method. However, proper tuning of the compensation network is required to achieve maximum power transmission. Due to the variation of coil distance from the nominal value as a result of change in tire condition, change in weight or uneven road condition, the tuning of the compensation network has become challenging. In this paper, a tuning method has been described to determine the optimum values of the compensation network in order to maximize the average output power. The simulation results show that 5.2% increase in average output power is obtained for 10% variation in coupling coefficient using the optimum values without the need of additional space and electro-mechanical components. The proposed method is applicable to both static and dynamic charging of electric vehicles.

Keywords: Coupling coefficient, electric vehicles, magnetic resonance coupling, tuning capacitor, wireless power transfer.

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Authors: Alberto Hananel

Abstract:

The aim of this work is to modelize the occlusion of a person with temporomandibular disorders as an evolutionary equation and approach its solution by the construction and characterizing of discrete variational splines. To formulate the problem, certain boundary conditions have been considered. After showing the existence and the uniqueness of the solution of such a problem, a convergence result of a discrete variational evolutionary spline is shown. A stress analysis of the occlusion of a human jaw with temporomandibular disorders by finite elements is carried out in FreeFem++ in order to prove the validity of the presented method.

Keywords: Approximation, evolutionary PDE, finite element method, temporomandibular disorders, variational spline.

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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