Search results for: Statistical tool.

Authors: Habibollah Najafi, Amir Abbas Yazdani, Hosseinali Nahavandi

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The review performed on the condition of energy consumption & rate in Iran, shows that unfortunately the subject of optimization and conservation of energy in active industries of country lacks a practical & effective method and in most factories, the energy consumption and rate is more than in similar industries of industrial countries. The increasing demand of electrical energy and the overheads which it imposes on the organization, forces companies to search for suitable approaches to optimize energy consumption and demand management. Application of value engineering techniques is among these approaches. Value engineering is considered a powerful tool for improving profitability. These tools are used for reduction of expenses, increasing profits, quality improvement, increasing market share, performing works in shorter durations, more efficient utilization of sources & etc. In this article, we shall review the subject of value engineering and its capabilities for creating effective transformations in industrial organizations, in order to reduce energy costs & the results have been investigated and described during a case study in Mazandaran wood and paper industries, the biggest consumer of energy in north of Iran, for the purpose of presenting the effects of performed tasks in optimization of energy consumption by utilizing value engineering techniques in one case study.

Keywords: Value Engineering (VE), Expense, Energy, Industrial

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R²).

Keywords: Time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh River.

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Authors: Ahmed Abdulghani Taha, Mohammad Abdulghani Taha

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This study aims at being acquainted with the using the body fat percentage (%BF) with body Mass Index (BMI) as input parameters in fuzzy logic decision support system to predict properly the lifted weight for students at weightlifting class lift according to his abilities instead of traditional manner. The sample included 53 male students (age = 21.38 ± 0.71 yrs, height (Hgt) = 173.17 ± 5.28 cm, body weight (BW) = 70.34 ± 7.87.6 kg, Body mass index (BMI) 23.42 ± 2.06 kg.m-2, fat mass (FM) = 9.96 ± 3.15 kg and fat percentage (% BF) = 13.98 ± 3.51 %.) experienced the weightlifting class as a credit and has variance at BW, Hgt and BMI and FM. BMI and % BF were taken as input parameters in FUZZY logic whereas the output parameter was the lifted weight (LW). There were statistical differences between LW values before and after using fuzzy logic (Diff 3.55± 2.21, P > 0.001). The percentages of the LW categories proposed by fuzzy logic were 3.77% of students to lift 1.0 fold of their bodies; 50.94% of students to lift 0.95 fold of their bodies; 33.96% of students to lift 0.9 fold of their bodies; 3.77% of students to lift 0.85 fold of their bodies and 7.55% of students to lift 0.8 fold of their bodies. The study concluded that the characteristic changes in body composition experienced by students when undergoing weightlifting could be utilized side by side with the Fuzzy logic decision support system to determine the proper workloads consistent with the abilities of students.

Keywords: Fuzzy logic, body mass index, body fat percentage, weightlifting.

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Authors: Salako Emmanuel Adekunle

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Computer education is referred to as the knowledge and ability to use computers and related technology efficiently, with a range of skills covering levels from basic use to advance. Computer continues to make an ever-increasing impact on all aspect of human endeavours such as education. With numerous benefits of computer education, what are the insights of students on computer education? This study investigated the perception of senior secondary school students on computer education in Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, Nigeria. A sample of 7500 senior secondary schools students was involved in the study, one hundred (100) private and fifty (50) public schools within FCT. They were selected by using simple random sampling technique. A questionnaire [PSSSCEQ] was developed and validated through expert judgement and reliability coefficient of 0.84 was obtained. It was used to gather relevant data on computer education. Findings confirmed that the students in the FCT had positive perception on computer education. Some factors were identified that affect students’ perception on computer education. The null hypotheses were tested using t-test and ANOVA statistical analyses at 0.05 level of significance. Based on these findings, some recommendations were made which include competent teachers should be employed into all secondary schools. This will help students to acquire relevant knowledge in computer education, technological supports should be provided to all secondary schools; this will help the users (students) to solve specific problems in computer education and financial supports should be provided to procure computer facilities that will enhance the teaching and the learning of computer education.

Keywords: Computer education, perception, secondary school, students.

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Authors: Mohammed Kamil, M. M. Rahman, Rosli A. Bakar

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Modeling of hydrogen fueled engine (H₂ICE) injection system is a very important tool that can be used for explaining or predicting the effect of advanced injection strategies on combustion and emissions. In this paper, a common rail injection system (CRIS) is proposed for 4-strokes 4-cylinders hydrogen fueled engine with port injection feeding system (PIH₂ICE). For this system, a numerical one-dimensional gas dynamic model is developed considering single injection event for each injector per a cycle. One-dimensional flow equations in conservation form are used to simulate wave propagation phenomenon throughout the CR (accumulator). Using this model, the effect of common rail on the injection system characteristics is clarified. These characteristics include: rail pressure, sound velocity, rail mass flow rate, injected mass flow rate and pressure drop across injectors. The interaction effects of operational conditions (engine speed and rail pressure) and geometrical features (injector hole diameter) are illustrated; and the required compromised solutions are highlighted. The CRIS is shown to be a promising enhancement for PIH₂ICE.

Keywords: Common rail, hydrogen engine, port injection, wave propagation.

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Authors: Haider AlAbadi, Joe Petrolito, Nelson Lam, Emad Gad

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In areas of low to moderate seismicity many building contents and equipment are not positively fixed to the floor or tied to adjacent walls. Under seismic induced horizontal vibration, such contents and equipment can suffer from damage by either overturning or impact associated with rocking. This paper focuses on the estimation of shock on typical contents and equipment due to rocking. A simplified analytical model is outlined that can be used to estimate the maximum acceleration on a rocking object given its basic geometric and mechanical properties. The developed model was validated against experimental results. The experimental results revealed that the maximum shock acceleration can be underestimated if the static stiffness of the materials at the interface between the rocking object and floor is used rather than the dynamic stiffness. Excellent agreement between the model and experimental results was found when the dynamic stiffness for the interface material was used, which was found to be generally much higher than corresponding static stiffness under different investigated boundary conditions of the cushion. The proposed model can be a beneficial tool in performing a rapid assessment of shock sensitive components considered for possible seismic rectification. 

Keywords: Impact, shock, earthquakes, rocking, building contents, overturning.

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Authors: Murat Ayyıldız, Oya Kalıpsız, Sırma Yavuz

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Software project effort estimation is frequently seen as complex and expensive for individual software engineers. Software production is in a crisis. It suffers from excessive costs. Software production is often out of control. It has been suggested that software production is out of control because we do not measure. You cannot control what you cannot measure. During last decade, a number of researches on cost estimation have been conducted. The metric-set selection has a vital role in software cost estimation studies; its importance has been ignored especially in neural network based studies. In this study we have explored the reasons of those disappointing results and implemented different neural network models using augmented new metrics. The results obtained are compared with previous studies using traditional metrics. To be able to make comparisons, two types of data have been used. The first part of the data is taken from the Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO'81) which is commonly used in previous studies and the second part is collected according to new metrics in a leading international company in Turkey. The accuracy of the selected metrics and the data samples are verified using statistical techniques. The model presented here is based on Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). Another difficulty associated with the cost estimation studies is the fact that the data collection requires time and care. To make a more thorough use of the samples collected, k-fold, cross validation method is also implemented. It is concluded that, as long as an accurate and quantifiable set of metrics are defined and measured correctly, neural networks can be applied in software cost estimation studies with success

Keywords: Software Metrics, Software Cost Estimation, Neural Network.

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Authors: Kurotimi M. Fems, Francis D. W. Poazi, Helen Opigo

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The concepts of entrepreneurship education together with graduate entrepreneurship have taken centre stage in many countries as a 21^st century strategy for economic growth and development. Entrepreneurship education has been viewed as a pre-requisite tool for a more effective and successful business operation. This paper seeks to verify if entrepreneurship education is pre-requisite to graduate entrepreneurship, and to ascertain if such other factors as the need for achievement, competence and experience etc. also play a foundational role in the choice of a graduate becoming an entrepreneur. The scope of the research study is entrepreneurs within Yenagoa metropolis in Bayelsa state, Nigeria. The sample target is graduates engaged in entrepreneurship activities (graduates who own and run businesses). Stratified sampling technique was used and 101 responses were obtained from a total of 300 questionnaires issued. Bar chart, tables and percentages were used to analyze the collected data. The findings revealed that personality traits, situational circumstance, need for achievement and experience/competence were the foundational factors stimulating graduate entrepreneurs to engage in entrepreneurial pursuits. Of all, personality trait showed the highest score with 73 (73%) out of 101 entrepreneurs agreeing. Experience/Competence and situational circumstances followed behind with 66 (65%) and 63 (62.4%), respectively. Entrepreneurship education revealed the least score with 33 (32.3%) out of 101 participating entrepreneurs. All hope, however, is not lost, as this shows that something can be done to increase the impact of entrepreneurship education on graduate entrepreneurship.

Keywords: Creative destruction, entrepreneurs, entrepreneurship education, graduate entrepreneurship, pre-requisite.

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Authors: Yusuff Idowu Moshood, Sanni Mohammed

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Natural radiations such as ultraviolet (UV) radiation sourced from sun are known to be the main causes of skin cancer, sunburn, eye damage, premature aging of skin and other skin related diseases. Its percentage of radiation reaching the earth populace and its impacts are not well known. Its variability in near-surface relating to its impacts on populace depends on some atmospheric parameters. Hence, this work was embarked on to determine the variability in near-surface UV radiation and its dependency on some atmospheric parameters at different time of the day in Offa, Nigeria. The variability was determined using the data obtained from meteorological garden, Science Laboratory Technology Department, Federal Polytechnic Offa, Nigeria. The data obtained were solar UV radiation, solar radiation, temperature, humidity and pressure at 30 minutes interval. Relationships were determined and correlations were derived using SPSS Pearson Correlation tool. The results showed a significant level of correlation with p-value of 0.01 and 0.05 levels. Thus, the results revealed some good relationships between the solar UV radiation and other atmospheric parameters with significance level less than p-value obtained. Inferentially, interdependent relationships were found to exist. Therefore, the nature of relationship obtained could be a yardstick for decision making in short term environmental planning on solar UV radiation depending of some atmospheric parameters within Offa locality.

Keywords: Correlation, inferential, radiation, yardstick.

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Authors: Jae-Young Lee, Woo-Young Jung, Myeong-Jun Nam

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Water hammer is a hydraulic transient problem which is commonly encountered in the penstocks of hydropower plants. The numerical model was developed to estimate the transient behavior of pressure waves in pipe systems. The computational algorithm was proposed to model the water hammer phenomenon in a pipe system with pump shutdown at midstream and sudden valve closure at downstream. To predict the pressure head and flow velocity as a function of time as a result of rapidly closing a valve and pump shutdown, two boundary conditions at the ends considering pump operation and valve control can be implemented as specified equations of the pressure head and flow velocity based on the characteristics method. It was shown that the effects of transient flow make it determine the needs for protection devices, such as surge tanks, surge relief valves, or air valves, at various points in the system against overpressure and low pressure. It produced reasonably good performance with the results of the proposed transient model for pipeline systems. The proposed numerical model can be used as an efficient tool for the safety assessment of hydropower plants due to water hammer.

Keywords: Water hammer, hydraulic transient, pipe systems, characteristics method.

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Authors: P. T. Ahamed Seyd, V. I. Thajudin Ahamed, Jeevamma Jacob, Paul Joseph K

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Diabetes mellitus (DM) is frequently characterized by autonomic nervous dysfunction. Analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) has become a popular noninvasive tool for assessing the activities of autonomic nervous system (ANS). In this paper, changes in ANS activity are quantified by means of frequency and time domain analysis of R-R interval variability. Electrocardiograms (ECG) of 16 patients suffering from DM and of 16 healthy volunteers were recorded. Frequency domain analysis of extracted normal to normal interval (NN interval) data indicates significant difference in very low frequency (VLF) power, low frequency (LF) power and high frequency (HF) power, between the DM patients and control group. Time domain measures, standard deviation of NN interval (SDNN), root mean square of successive NN interval differences (RMSSD), successive NN intervals differing more than 50 ms (NN50 Count), percentage value of NN50 count (pNN50), HRV triangular index and triangular interpolation of NN intervals (TINN) also show significant difference between the DM patients and control group.

Keywords: Autonomic nervous system, diabetes mellitus, frequency domain and time domain analysis, heart rate variability.

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Authors: Sumiko Anno, Keiji Imaoka, Takeo Tadono, Tamotsu Igarashi, Subramaniam Sivaganesh, Selvam Kannathasan, Vaithehi Kumaran, Sinnathamby Noble Surendran

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Dengue outbreaks are affected by biological, ecological, socio-economic and demographic factors that vary over time and space. These factors have been examined separately and still require systematic clarification. The present study aimed to investigate the spatial-temporal clustering relationships between these factors and dengue outbreaks in the northern region of Sri Lanka. Remote sensing (RS) data gathered from a plurality of satellites were used to develop an index comprising rainfall, humidity and temperature data. RS data gathered by ALOS/AVNIR-2 were used to detect urbanization, and a digital land cover map was used to extract land cover information. Other data on relevant factors and dengue outbreaks were collected through institutions and extant databases. The analyzed RS data and databases were integrated into geographic information systems, enabling temporal analysis, spatial statistical analysis and space-time clustering analysis. Our present results showed that increases in the number of the combination of ecological factor and socio-economic and demographic factors with above the average or the presence contribute to significantly high rates of space-time dengue clusters.

Keywords: ALOS/AVNIR-2, Dengue, Space-time clustering analysis, Sri Lanka.

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Authors: Muhammad Liaquat Ali, Nasir-uddin Khan, Mushtaq Hussain, Asif Mansoor, Muhammad Shahid

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Population in rural areas are scattered in the form of different villages or settlements. The proper selection of land to launch any educational or health activities to equally facilitate both the genders is the sticky situation, both for Govt. and Private organizations. Govt. spends substantial funds for the establishment of education institution/health centre at the place which is feasible and accessible to general public. However for specific gender, the gender population is also considered so that both the gender may be benefited equally. In this research, efforts have been made to illustrate how one can choose or locate the best central place/ area in Taluka Kunri of district Umerkot Sindh Pakistan where the Educational or Health activity is to be initiated. For the purpose the concept of centre of mass theorem is used as a tool to develop mathematical model, subsequently utilize in achieving the objectives.

Keywords: Centre of mass theorem, Establishment of technical/ vocational/ health care centre, Gender population of taluka Kunri of District Umerkot, Graphical interpretation of town committee/villages.

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Authors: Ilhan Keskin, Hasan Bulent Kantarcı

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In this study, one of the tools of Islamic financing known as “Sukuk” a non-interest bearing investment which has started to be implemented in Turkey and the world as a whole is discussed. In order to increase the vitality and efficiency of the economy, by taking lessons from the recent economic crisis new developments in the banking and investment sector are being expanded. The purpose of all investors is to obtain more revenue through the use of capital. The inability of traditional investment tools to meet the expectations of investors and the interest based financial system where one investor benefits at the expense of another there has been the need for a different, reliable and noninterest bearing financial market that is consistent with the Islamic rule. As a result an alternative and more reliable interest free financing tool “Sukuk” rental certificates covering people who are sensitive to Islamic rules, appeal to all segments, hidden remaining capital that contributes to the economy, reduce disparities in income distribution, common risk sharing system of profit and loss sharing has emerged. Today, for the structural countries by examining the state of the world market economy the applicability, enactment and future issues associated with this attractive kind of Islamic finance namely the “Sukuk” market has been explained.

Keywords: Islamic finance, Islamic markets, non-interest bearing, rental certificates.

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

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In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: Fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity.

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Authors: Masoud Nasri, Sadat Feiznia, Mohammad Jafari, Hasan Ahmadi

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Today, incorrect use of lands and land use changes, excessive grazing, no suitable using of agricultural farms, plowing on steep slopes, road construct, building construct, mine excavation etc have been caused increasing of soil erosion and sediment yield. For erosion and sediment estimation one can use statistical and empirical methods. This needs to identify land unit map and the map of effective factors. However, these empirical methods are usually time consuming and do not give accurate estimation of erosion. In this study, we applied GIS techniques to estimate erosion and sediment of Menderjan watershed at upstream Zayandehrud river in center of Iran. Erosion faces at each land unit were defined on the basis of land use, geology and land unit map using GIS. The UTM coordinates of each erosion type that showed more erosion amounts such as rills and gullies were inserted in GIS using GPS data. The frequency of erosion indicators at each land unit, land use and their sediment yield of these indices were calculated. Also using tendency analysis of sediment yield changes in watershed outlet (Menderjan hydrometric gauge station), was calculated related parameters and estimation errors. The results of this study according to implemented watershed management projects can be used for more rapid and more accurate estimation of erosion than traditional methods. These results can also be used for regional erosion assessment and can be used for remote sensing image processing.

Keywords: Erosion and sedimentation, Gully, Rill, GIS, GPS, Menderjan Watershed

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Authors: Awatef Chniguir, Tarek Farah, Zouhair Ben Jemaa, Safya Belguith

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Optimal routing allows minimizing energy consumption in wireless sensor networks (WSN). Clustering has proven its effectiveness in organizing WSN by reducing channel contention and packet collision and enhancing network throughput under heavy load. Therefore, nowadays, with the emergence of the Internet of Things, heterogeneity is essential. Stable election protocol (SEP) that has increased the network stability period and lifetime is the first clustering protocol for heterogeneous WSN. SEP and its descendants, namely SEP, Threshold Sensitive SEP (TSEP), Enhanced TSEP (ETSSEP) and Current Energy Allotted TSEP (CEATSEP), were studied. These algorithms’ performance was evaluated based on different metrics, especially first node death (FND), to compare their stability. Simulations were conducted on the MATLAB tool considering two scenarios: The first one demonstrates the fraction variation of advanced nodes by setting the number of total nodes. The second considers the interpretation of the number of nodes while keeping the number of advanced nodes permanent. CEATSEP outperforms its antecedents by increasing stability and, at the same time, keeping a low throughput. It also operates very well in a large-scale network. Consequently, CEATSEP has a useful lifespan and energy efficiency compared to the other routing protocol for heterogeneous WSN.

Keywords: Clustering, heterogeneous, stability, scalability, throughput, IoT, WSN.

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Authors: Jihad S. Daba, J. P. Dubois

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Fading noise degrades the performance of cellular communication, most notably in femto- and pico-cells in 3G and 4G systems. When the wireless channel consists of a small number of scattering paths, the statistics of fading noise is not analytically tractable and poses a serious challenge to developing closed canonical forms that can be analysed and used in the design of efficient and optimal receivers. In this context, noise is multiplicative and is referred to as stochastically local fading. In many analytical investigation of multiplicative noise, the exponential or Gamma statistics are invoked. More recent advances by the author of this paper utilized a Poisson modulated-weighted generalized Laguerre polynomials with controlling parameters and uncorrelated noise assumptions. In this paper, we investigate the statistics of multidiversity stochastically local area fading channel when the channel consists of randomly distributed Rayleigh and Rician scattering centers with a coherent Nakagami-distributed line of sight component and an underlying doubly stochastic Poisson process driven by a lognormal intensity. These combined statistics form a unifying triply stochastic filtered marked Poisson point process model.

Keywords: Cellular communication, femto- and pico-cells, stochastically local area fading channel, triply stochastic filtered marked Poisson point process.

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

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The practical efficient approach is suggested to estimate the high-speed objects instant bounds in C-OTDR monitoring systems. In case of super-dynamic objects (trains, cars) is difficult to obtain the adequate estimate of the instantaneous object localization because of estimation lag. In other words, reliable estimation coordinates of monitored object requires taking some time for data observation collection by means of C-OTDR system, and only if the required sample volume will be collected the final decision could be issued. But it is contrary to requirements of many real applications. For example, in rail traffic management systems we need to get data of the dynamic objects localization in real time. The way to solve this problem is to use the set of statistical independent parameters of C-OTDR signals for obtaining the most reliable solution in real time. The parameters of this type we can call as «signaling parameters» (SP). There are several the SP’s which carry information about dynamic objects instant localization for each of COTDR channels. The problem is that some of these parameters are very sensitive to dynamics of seismoacoustic emission sources, but are non-stable. On the other hand, in case the SP is very stable it becomes insensitive as rule. This report contains describing of the method for SP’s co-processing which is designed to get the most effective dynamic objects localization estimates in the C-OTDR monitoring system framework.

Keywords: C-OTDR-system, co-processing of signaling parameters, high-speed objects localization, multichannel monitoring systems.

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Authors: Dalin Si, Azizan Aziz, Bertrand Lasternas

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To encourage building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market and reduce building peak demand, this study aims to develop models that predict day-ahead hourly electricity consumption and demand using artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM). All prediction models are built in Python, with tool Scikit-learn and Pybrain. The input data for both consumption and demand prediction are time stamp, outdoor dry bulb temperature, relative humidity, air handling unit (AHU), supply air temperature and solar radiation. Solar radiation, which is unavailable a day-ahead, is predicted at first, and then this estimation is used as an input to predict consumption and demand. Models to predict consumption and demand are trained in both SVM and ANN, and depend on cooling or heating, weekdays or weekends. The results show that ANN is the better option for both consumption and demand prediction. It can achieve 15.50% to 20.03% coefficient of variance of root mean square error (CVRMSE) for consumption prediction and 22.89% to 32.42% CVRMSE for demand prediction, respectively. To conclude, the presented models have potential to help building owners to purchase electricity at the wholesale market, but they are not robust when used in demand response control.

Keywords: Building energy prediction, data mining, demand response, electricity market.

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Authors: Amir Gandomkar

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Global warming and continental changes have been one of the people's issues in the recent years and its consequences have appeared in the most parts of the earth planet or will appear in the future. Temperature and Precipitation are two main parameters in climatology. Any changes in these two parameters in this region cause widespread changes in the ecosystem and its natural and humanistic structure. One of the important consequences of this procedure is change in surface and underground water resources. Zayanderood watershed basin which is the main central river in Iran has faced water shortage in the recent years and also it has resulted in drought in Gavkhuni swamp and the river itself. Managers and experts in provinces which are the Zayanderood water consumers believe that global warming; raining decrease and continental changes are the main reason of water decrease. By statistical investigation of annual Precipitation and 46 years temperature of internal and external areas of Zayanderood watershed basin's stations and by using Kendal-man method, Precipitation and temperature procedure changes have been analyzed in this basin. According to obtained results, there was not any noticeable decrease or increase procedure in Precipitation and annual temperature in the basin during this period. However, regarding to Precipitation, a noticeable decrease and increase have been observed in small part of western and some parts of eastern and southern basin, respectively. Furthermore, the investigation of annual temperature procedure has shown that a noticeable increase has been observed in some parts of western and eastern basin, and also a noticeable increasing procedure of temperature in the central parts of metropolitan Esfahan can be observed.

Keywords: Zayanderood, Man_Kendal, Climate Change

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Authors: Andrea Bellucci, Martina Tofi

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The aim of paper is to analyze business models of bancassurance in Italy for life business. The life insurance business is very developed in the Italian market and banks branches have 80% of the market share. Given its maturity, the life insurance market needs to consolidate its organizational form to allow for the development of non-life business, which nowadays collects few premiums but represents a great opportunity to enlarge the market share of bancassurance using its strength in the distribution channel while the market share of independent agents is decreasing. Starting with the main business model of bancassurance for life business, this paper will analyze the performances of life companies in the Italian market by balance sheet indicators and by main discriminant variables of business models. The study will observe trends from 2013 to 2015 for the Italian market by exploiting a database managed by Associazione Nazionale delle Imprese di Assicurazione (ANIA). The applied approach is based on a bottom-up analysis starting with variables and indicators to define business models’ classification. The statistical classification algorithm proposed by Ward is employed to design business models’ profiles. Results from the analysis will be a representation of the main business models built by their profile related to indicators. In that way, an unsupervised analysis is developed that has the limit of its judgmental dimension based on research opinion, but it is possible to obtain a design of effective business models.

Keywords: Balance sheet indicators, Bancassurance, business models, ward algorithm.

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Authors: Elias Akoury

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Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy is an indispensable technique used in structure determination of small and macromolecules to study their physical properties, elucidation of characteristic interactions, dynamics and thermodynamic processes. Quantum mechanics defines the theoretical description of NMR spectroscopy and treatment of the dynamics of nuclear spin systems. The phenomenon of residual dipolar coupling (RDCs) has become a routine tool for accurate structure determination by providing global orientation information of magnetic dipole-dipole interaction vectors within a common reference frame. This offers accessibility of distance-independent angular information and insights to local relaxation. The measurement of RDCs requires an anisotropic orientation medium for the molecules to partially align along the magnetic field. This can be achieved by introduction of liquid crystals or attaching a paramagnetic center. Although anisotropic paramagnetic tags continue to mark achievements in the biomolecular NMR of large proteins, its application in small organic molecules remains unspread. Here, we propose a strategy for the synthesis of a lanthanide tag and the measurement of RDCs in organic molecules using paramagnetic lanthanide complexes.

Keywords: Lanthanide Tags, NMR spectroscopy, residual dipolar coupling, quantum mechanics of spin dynamics.

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Authors: A. U. Haque, W. Asrar, A. A. Omar, E. Sulaeman, J. S. Mohamed Ali

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Due to the interference effects, the intrinsic aerodynamic parameters obtained from the individual component testing are always fundamentally different than those obtained for complete model testing. Consideration and limitation for such testing need to be taken into account in any design work related to the component buildup method. In this paper, the scaled model of a straight rectangular canard of a hybrid buoyant aircraft is tested at 50 m/s in IIUM-LSWT (Low Speed Wind Tunnel). Model and its attachment with the balance are kept rigid to have results free from the aeroelastic distortion. Based on the velocity profile of the test section’s floor; the height of the model is kept equal to the corresponding boundary layer displacement. Balance measurements provide valuable but limited information of overall aerodynamic behavior of the model. Zero lift coefficient is obtained at -2.2o and the corresponding drag coefficient was found to be less than that at zero angle of attack. As a part of the validation of low fidelity tool, plot of lift coefficient plot was verified by the experimental data and except the value of zero lift coefficients, the overall trend has under predicted the lift coefficient. Based on this comparative study, a correction factor of 1.36 is proposed for lift curve slope obtained from the panel method.

Keywords: Wind tunnel testing, boundary layer displacement, lift curve slope, canard, aerodynamics.

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Authors: Maria Venus G. Solares

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The ancient Filipinos had their own spelling or alphabet that differed from the modern Roman alphabet brought by the Spaniards. It consists of seventeen letters, three vowels, and fourteen consonants and is called Baybayin. The Baybayin, a traditional writing system, is composed of characters that represent syllables. A proposal in the Philippine Congress to declare Baybayin as the national writing system inspired this study. The main objective of this study was to develop and assess the proposed module for enhancing the reading and writing skills in Baybayin of the students. The aim was to ensure the acceptability of the Baybayin using the proposed module and to meet the needs of students in developing their ability to read and write Baybayin through the module. A quasi-experimental research design was used in this study.  The data were collected through the initial and final analysis of the students of Adamson University's ABM 1102 using convenient sampling techniques. Based on statistical analysis of data using weighted mean, standard deviation, and paired t-tests, the proposed module helped improve the students' literacy skills, and the response exercises in the proposed module changed the acceptability of the Baybayin in their minds. The study showed that there was an important difference in the scores of students before and after the use of the module. The students' response to the assessment of their reading and writing skills on Baybayin was highly acceptable. This study will help to develop the reading and writing skills of the students in Baybayin and to teach the Baybayin in response to the revival of a part of Philippine culture that has been long forgotten.

Keywords: Baybayin, proposed module, ancient writing, acceptability.

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Authors: Young-Seok Choi

Abstract:

This work proposes a data-driven multiscale based quantitative measures to reveal the underlying complexity of electroencephalogram (EEG), applying to a rodent model of hypoxic-ischemic brain injury and recovery. Motivated by that real EEG recording is nonlinear and non-stationary over different frequencies or scales, there is a need of more suitable approach over the conventional single scale based tools for analyzing the EEG data. Here, we present a new framework of complexity measures considering changing dynamics over multiple oscillatory scales. The proposed multiscale complexity is obtained by calculating entropies of the probability distributions of the intrinsic mode functions extracted by the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) of EEG. To quantify EEG recording of a rat model of hypoxic-ischemic brain injury following cardiac arrest, the multiscale version of Tsallis entropy is examined. To validate the proposed complexity measure, actual EEG recordings from rats (n=9) experiencing 7 min cardiac arrest followed by resuscitation were analyzed. Experimental results demonstrate that the use of the multiscale Tsallis entropy leads to better discrimination of the injury levels and improved correlations with the neurological deficit evaluation after 72 hours after cardiac arrest, thus suggesting an effective metric as a prognostic tool.

Keywords: Electroencephalogram (EEG), multiscale complexity, empirical mode decomposition, Tsallis entropy.

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Authors: A. Deręgowska, J. Depciuch, R. Wojnarowska, J. Polit, D. Broda, H. Nechai, M. Gonchar, and E. Sheregii

Abstract:

16-Mercaptohexadecanoic acid (MHDA) and tripeptide glutathione conjugated with gold nanoparticles (Au-NPs) are characterized by Fourier Transform InfaRared (FTIR) spectroscopy combined with Surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) spectroscopy. Surface Plasmon Resonance (SPR) technique based on FTIR spectroscopy has become an important tool in biophysics, which is perspective for the study of organic compounds. FTIR-spectra of MHDA shows the line at 2500 cm-1 attributed to thiol group which is modified by presence of Au-NPs, suggesting the formation of bond between thiol group and gold. We also can observe the peaks originate from characteristic chemical group. A Raman spectrum of the same sample is also promising. Our preliminary experiments confirm that SERS-effect takes place for MHDA connected with Au-NPs and enable us to detected small number (less than 106 cm-2) of MHDA molecules. Combination of spectroscopy methods: FTIR and SERS – enable to study optical properties of Au- NPs and immobilized bio-molecules in context of a bio-nano-sensors.

Keywords: Glutathione; gold nanoparticles, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, MHDA, surface-enhanced Raman scattering.

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Authors: Allaeddine Athmani, Abdelhacine Gouasmia, Tiago Ferreira, Romeu Vicente

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The seismic risk mitigation from the perspective of the old buildings stock is truly essential in Algerian urban areas, particularly those located in seismic prone regions, such as Annaba city, and which the old buildings present high levels of degradation associated with no seismic strengthening and/or rehabilitation concerns. In this sense, the present paper approaches the issue of the seismic vulnerability assessment of old masonry building stocks through the adaptation of a simplified methodology developed for a European context area similar to that of Annaba city, Algeria. Therefore, this method is used for the first level of seismic vulnerability assessment of the masonry buildings stock of the old city center of Annaba. This methodology is based on a vulnerability index that is suitable for the evaluation of damage and for the creation of large-scale loss scenarios. Over 380 buildings were evaluated in accordance with the referred methodology and the results obtained were then integrated into a Geographical Information System (GIS) tool. Such results can be used by the Annaba city council for supporting management decisions, based on a global view of the site under analysis, which led to more accurate and faster decisions for the risk mitigation strategies and rehabilitation plans.

Keywords: Damage scenarios, masonry buildings, old city center, seismic vulnerability, vulnerability index.

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Authors: Regine W. Vroom, Lysanne E. Vossen, Anoek M. Geers

Abstract:

Industrial design engineering is an information and knowledge intensive job. Although Wikipedia offers a lot of this information, design engineers are better served with a wiki tailored to their job, offering information in a compact manner and functioning as a design tool. For that reason WikID has been developed. However for the viability of a wiki, an active user community is essential. The main subject of this paper is a study to the influence of the communication and the contents of WikID on the user-s willingness to contribute. At first the theory about a website-s first impression, general usability guidelines and user motivation in an online community is studied. Using this theory, the aspects of the current site are analyzed on their suitability. These results have been verified with a questionnaire amongst 66 industrial design engineers (or students industrial design engineering). The main conclusion is that design engineers are enchanted with the existence of WikID and its knowledge structure (taxonomy) but this structure has not become clear without any guidance. In other words, the knowledge structure is very helpful for inspiring and guiding design engineers through their tailored knowledge domain in WikID but this taxonomy has to be better communicated on the main page. Thereby the main page needs to be fitted more to the target group preferences.

Keywords: Industrial Design Engineering Knowledge, SemanticWiki, User Willingness to Contribute Knowledge to a Wiki, Influence of Website Content to User Activation.

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Authors: Meng-Lung Lin, Chien-Min Chu, Chung-Hung Tsai, Chih-Cheng Chen, Chen-Yuan Chen

Abstract:

The study of tourist activities and the mapping of their routes in space and time has become an important issue in tourism management. Here we represent space-time paths for the tourism industry by visualizing individual tourist activities and the paths followed using a 3D Geographic Information System (GIS). Considerable attention has been devoted to the measurement of accessibility to shopping, eating, walking and other services at the tourist destination. I turns out that GIS is a useful tool for studying the spatial behaviors of tourists in the area. The value of GIS is especially advantageous for space-time potential path area measures, especially for the accurate visualization of possible paths through existing city road networks. This study seeks to apply space-time concepts with a detailed street network map obtained from Google Maps to measure tourist paths both spatially and temporally. These paths are further determined based on data obtained from map questionnaires regarding the trip activities of 40 individuals. The analysis of the data makes it possible to determining the locations of the more popular paths. The results can be visualized using 3D GIS to show the areas and potential activity opportunities accessible to tourists during their travel time.

Keywords: Tourist activity analysis, space-time path, GIS, geovisualization, activity-travel pattern.

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