Search results for: linear prediction analysis

Authors: Amir Azizi, Amir Yazid b. Ali, Loh Wei Ping, Mohsen Mohammadzadeh

Abstract:

Uncertainties of a serial production line affect on the production throughput. The uncertainties cannot be prevented in a real production line. However the uncertain conditions can be controlled by a robust prediction model. Thus, a hybrid model including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiple polynomial regression, is proposed to model the nonlinear relationship of production uncertainties with throughput. The uncertainties under consideration of this study are demand, breaktime, scrap, and lead-time. The nonlinear relationship of production uncertainties with throughput are examined in the form of quadratic and cubic regression models, where the adjusted R-squared for quadratic and cubic regressions was 98.3% and 98.2%. We optimized the multiple quadratic regression (MQR) by considering the time series trend of the uncertainties using ARIMA model. Finally the hybrid model of ARIMA and MQR is formulated by better adjusted R-squared, which is 98.9%.

Keywords: ARIMA, multiple polynomial regression, production throughput, uncertainties

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Authors: Gangmin Li, Fan Yang

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Personalized recommendation is crucial for any recommendation system. One of the techniques for personalized recommendation is to identify the intention. Traditional user intention identification uses the user’s selection when facing multiple items. This modeling relies primarily on historical behavior data resulting in challenges such as the cold start, unintended choice, and failure to capture intention when items are new. Motivated by recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT, we present an approach for user intention identification by embracing LLMs with Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting. We use the initial user profile as input to LLMs and design a collection of prompts to align the LLM's response through various recommendation tasks encompassing rating prediction, search and browse history, user clarification, etc. Our tests on real-world datasets demonstrate the improvements in recommendation by explicit user intention identification and, with that intention, merged into a user model.

Keywords: Personalized recommendation, generative user modeling, user intention identification, large language models, chain-of-thought prompting.

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Authors: Yusoff Y. S., Streftaris, G., Waters, H. R

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Death within 30 days is an important factor to be looked into, as there is a significant risk of deaths immediately following or soon after, myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke. In this paper, we will model the deaths within 30 days following a myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke in the UK. We will see how the probabilities of sudden deaths from MI or stroke have changed over the period 1981-2000. We will model the sudden deaths using a generalized linear model (GLM), fitted using the R statistical package, under a Binomial distribution for the number of sudden deaths. We parameterize our model using the extensive and detailed data from the Framingham Heart Study, adjusted to match UK rates. The results show that there is a reduction for the sudden deaths following a MI over time but no significant improvement for sudden deaths following a stroke.

Keywords: Sudden deaths, myocardial infarction, stroke, ischemic heart disease.

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Authors: Nasrin Farajiparvar

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In the present article, a new method has been developed to enhance the application of equipment monitoring, which in turn results in improving condition-based maintenance economic impact in an automobile parts manufacturing factory. This study also describes how an effective software with a simple database can be utilized to achieve cost-effective improvements in maintenance performance. The most important results of this project are indicated here: 1. 63% reduction in direct and indirect maintenance costs. 2. Creating a proper database to analyse failures. 3. Creating a method to control system performance and develop it to similar systems. 4. Designing a software to analyse database and consequently create technical knowledge to face unusual condition of the system. Moreover, the results of this study have shown that the concept and philosophy of maintenance has not been understood in most Iranian industries. Thus, more investment is strongly required to improve maintenance conditions.

Keywords: Condition-based maintenance, Economic savings, Iran industries, Machine life prediction software.

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Authors: Sepulveda Juan

Abstract:

This article explains the elements and considerations taken into account when implementing and applying patent evaluation and scientometric study in the identifications of technology trends, and the tools that led to the implementation of a software application for patent revision. Univariate analysis helped recognize the technological leaders in the field of energy, and steered the way for a multivariate analysis of this sample, which allowed for a graphical description of the techniques of mature technologies, as well as the detection of emerging technologies. This article ends with a validation of the methodology as applied to the case of fuel cells.

Keywords: Energy, technology mapping, patents.

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Authors: Ping Du, Masaki Sagehashi, Akihiko Terada, Masaaki Hosomi

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Prediction of benzene transport in soil and volatilization from soil to the atmosphere is important for the preservation of human health and management of contaminated soils. The adequacy of a simple numerical model, assuming two-phase diffusion and equilibrium of liquid/solid adsorption, was investigated by experimental data of benzene concentration in a flux chamber (with headspace) where Andosol and sand were filled. Adsorption experiment for liquid phase was performed to determine an adsorption coefficient. Furthermore, adequacy of vapor phase adsorption was also studied through two runs of experiment using sand with different water content. The results show that the model adequately predicted benzene transport and volatilization from Andosol and sand with water content of 14.0%. In addition, the experiment additionally revealed that vapor phase adsorption should be considered in diffusion model for sand with very low water content.

Keywords: Benzene; Transport Model, Adsorption, Soil Contaminant.

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Authors: Zongyou He, Bashu Tsai, Chinhung Ko, Tainchi Lu

Abstract:

A procedural-animation-based approach which rapidly synthesize the adaptive locomotion for quadruped characters that they can walk or run in any directions on an uneven terrain within a dynamic environment was proposed. We devise practical motion models of the quadruped animals for adapting to a varied terrain in a real-time manner. While synthesizing locomotion, we choose the corresponding motion models by means of the footstep prediction of the current state in the dynamic environment, adjust the key-frames of the motion models relying on the terrain-s attributes, calculate the collision-free legs- trajectories, and interpolate the key-frames according to the legs- trajectories. Finally, we apply dynamic time warping to each part of motion for seamlessly concatenating all desired transition motions to complete the whole locomotion. We reduce the time cost of producing the locomotion and takes virtual characters to fit in with dynamic environments no matter when the environments are changed by users.

Keywords: Dynamic environment, motion synthesis, procedural animation, quadruped locomotion

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Authors: Andrés Gomez-Casseres, Rubén Contreras

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In this paper, a bidirectional boost converter operated in Discontinuous Conduction Mode (DCM) is presented as a suitable power conditioning circuit for tuning of kinetic energy harvesters without the need of a battery. A nonlinear control scheme, composed by two linear controllers, is used to control the average value of the input current, enabling the synthesization of complex loads. The converter, along with the control system, is validated through SPICE simulations using the LTspice tool. The converter model and the controller transfer functions are derived. From the simulation results, it was found that the input current distortion increases with the introduced phase shift and that, such distortion, is almost entirely present at the zero-crossing point of the input voltage.

Keywords: Average current control, boost converter, electrical tuning, energy harvesting.

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Authors: Ming-Hui Cheng, Jyh-Horng Jeng

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In this study, a classification-based video super-resolution method using artificial neural network (ANN) is proposed to enhance low-resolution (LR) to high-resolution (HR) frames. The proposed method consists of four main steps: classification, motion-trace volume collection, temporal adjustment, and ANN prediction. A classifier is designed based on the edge properties of a pixel in the LR frame to identify the spatial information. To exploit the spatio-temporal information, a motion-trace volume is collected using motion estimation, which can eliminate unfathomable object motion in the LR frames. In addition, temporal lateral process is employed for volume adjustment to reduce unnecessary temporal features. Finally, ANN is applied to each class to learn the complicated spatio-temporal relationship between LR and HR frames. Simulation results show that the proposed method successfully improves both peak signal-to-noise ratio and perceptual quality.

Keywords: Super-resolution, classification, spatio-temporal information, artificial neural network.

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Authors: Kazuyoshi Mori

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the parametrization of the discrete-time systems without the unit-delay element within the framework of the factorization approach. In the parametrization, we investigate the number of required parameters. We consider single-input single-output systems in this paper. By the investigation, we find, on the discrete-time systems without the unit-delay element, three cases that are (1) there exist plants which require only one parameter and (2) two parameters, and (3) the number of parameters is at most three.

Keywords: Linear systems, parametrization, Coprime Factorization, number of parameters.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

In this paper, a neutrosophic multiple criteria decision analysis method is proposed to select stealth fighter aircraft. Neutrosophic multiple criteria decision analysis methods are used to analyze the neutrosophic environment and give results under uncertainty and incompleteness. Neutrosophic numbers are used to evaluate alternatives over a set of evaluation criteria in decision making problems. Finally, the proposed model is applied to a practical decision problem for selecting stealth fighter aircraft.

Keywords: neutrosophic sets, multiple criteria decision making analysis, stealth fighter aircraft, aircraft selection, MCDMA, SVNNs

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Authors: Omid A. Zargar

Abstract:

Vibration analysis is the most important factor in preventive maintenance. Gas turbine vibration analysis is also one of the most challenging categories in most critical equipment monitoring systems. Utilities are heart of the process in big industrial plants like petrochemical zones. Vibration analysis methods and condition monitoring systems of this kind of equipment developed too much in recent years. On the other hand, too much operation condition consideration in this kind of equipment should be adjusted properly like inlet and outlet pressure and temperature for both turbine and compressor. In this paper the most important tools and hypothesis used for analyzing of gas turbine power plants discussed in details through a real case history related to an Alstom Typhoon gas turbine power plant in Iran oil industries. In addition, the basic principal of vibration behavior caused by mechanical unbalance in gas turbine rotor discussed in details.

Keywords: Vibration analysis, gas turbine, time wave form (TWF), fast Fourier transform (FFT), phase angle.

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Authors: Ehsan Bashiri

Abstract:

A 7-step method (with 25 sub-steps) to assess risk of air pollutants is introduced. These steps are: pre-considerations, sampling, statistical analysis, exposure matrix and likelihood, doseresponse matrix and likelihood, total risk evaluation, and discussion of findings. All mentioned words and expressions are wellunderstood; however, almost all steps have been modified, improved, and coupled in such a way that a comprehensive method has been prepared. Accordingly, the SADRA (Statistical Analysis-Driven Risk Assessment) emphasizes extensive and ongoing application of analytical statistics in traditional risk assessment models. A Sulfur Dioxide case study validates the claim and provides a good illustration for this method.

Keywords: Criteria air pollutants, Matrix of risk, Riskassessment, Statistical analysis.

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Authors: Jerome T. Tolentino, Ma. Victoria Rejuso, Jara Kaye Villanueva, Loureal Camille Inocencio, Ma. Rosario Concepcion O. Ang

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Wind energy is rapidly emerging as the primary source of electricity in the Philippines, although developing an accurate wind resource model is difficult. In this study, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, an open source mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, was used to produce a 1-year atmospheric simulation with 4 km resolution on the Ilocos Region of the Philippines. The WRF output (netCDF) extracts the annual mean wind speed data using a Python-based Graphical User Interface. Lastly, wind resource assessment was produced using a GIS software. Results of the study showed that it is more flexible to use Python scripts than using other post-processing tools in dealing with netCDF files. Using WRF Model, Python, and Geographic Information Systems, a reliable wind resource map is produced.

Keywords: Wind resource assessment, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, python, GIS software.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper proposes entropic programming for the freighter aircraft selection problem using the multiple criteria decision analysis method. The study aims to propose a systematic and comprehensive framework by focusing on the perspective of freighter aircraft selection. In order to achieve this goal, an integrated entropic programming approach was proposed to evaluate and rank alternatives. The decision criteria and aircraft alternatives were identified from the research data analysis. The objective criteria weights were determined by the mean weight method and the standard deviation method. The proposed entropic programming model was applied to a practical decision problem for evaluating and selecting freighter aircraft. The proposed entropic programming technique gives robust, reliable, and efficient results in modeling decision making analysis problems. As a result of entropic programming analysis, Boeing B747-8F, a freighter aircraft alternative ( a3), was chosen as the most suitable freighter aircraft candidate.   

Keywords: entropic programming, additive weighted model, multiple criteria decision making analysis, MCDMA, TOPSIS, aircraft selection, freighter aircraft, Boeing B747-8F, Boeing B777F, Airbus A350F

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Authors: Dong-Joong Kim, Sangho Choi, Woong Lim

Abstract:

This paper discusses Sfard’s commognitive approach and provides an empirical study as an example to illustrate the theory as method. Traditionally, research in mathematics education focused on the acquisition of mathematical knowledge and the didactic process of knowledge transfer. Through attending to a distinctive form of language in mathematics, as well as mathematics as a discursive subject, alternative views of making meaning in mathematics have emerged; these views are therefore “critical,” as in critical discourse analysis. The commognitive discourse analysis method has the potential to bring more clarity to our understanding of students’ mathematical thinking and the process through which students are socialized into school mathematics.

Keywords: Commognitive framework, discourse analysis, mathematical discourse, mathematics education.

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Authors: Alexander Efremov

Abstract:

A system for market identification (SMI) is presented. The resulting representations are multivariable dynamic demand models. The market specifics are analyzed. Appropriate models and identification techniques are chosen. Multivariate static and dynamic models are used to represent the market behavior. The steps of the first stage of SMI, named data preprocessing, are mentioned. Next, the second stage, which is the model estimation, is considered in more details. Stepwise linear regression (SWR) is used to determine the significant cross-effects and the orders of the model polynomials. The estimates of the model parameters are obtained by a numerically stable estimator. Real market data is used to analyze SMI performance. The main conclusion is related to the applicability of multivariate dynamic models for representation of market systems.

Keywords: market identification, dynamic models, stepwise regression.

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Authors: Neveen I. Ghali, Nahed El-Dessouki, Mervat A. N., Lamiaa Bakrawi

Abstract:

In this paper we use exponential particle swarm optimization (EPSO) to cluster data. Then we compare between (EPSO) clustering algorithm which depends on exponential variation for the inertia weight and particle swarm optimization (PSO) clustering algorithm which depends on linear inertia weight. This comparison is evaluated on five data sets. The experimental results show that EPSO clustering algorithm increases the possibility to find the optimal positions as it decrease the number of failure. Also show that (EPSO) clustering algorithm has a smaller quantization error than (PSO) clustering algorithm, i.e. (EPSO) clustering algorithm more accurate than (PSO) clustering algorithm.

Keywords: Particle swarm optimization, data clustering, exponential PSO.

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Authors: Liew Yee Ping, Pang Ying Han, Lau Siong Hoe, Ooi Shih Yin, Housam Khalifa Bashier Babiker

Abstract:

In face recognition, feature extraction techniques attempts to search for appropriate representation of the data. However, when the feature dimension is larger than the samples size, it brings performance degradation. Hence, we propose a method called Normalization Discriminant Independent Component Analysis (NDICA). The input data will be regularized to obtain the most reliable features from the data and processed using Independent Component Analysis (ICA). The proposed method is evaluated on three face databases, Olivetti Research Ltd (ORL), Face Recognition Technology (FERET) and Face Recognition Grand Challenge (FRGC). NDICA showed it effectiveness compared with other unsupervised and supervised techniques.

Keywords: Face recognition, small sample size, regularization, independent component analysis.

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Authors: O. Poleshchuk, E.Komarov

Abstract:

This paper presents a regression model for interval type-2 fuzzy sets based on the least squares estimation technique. Unknown coefficients are assumed to be triangular fuzzy numbers. The basic idea is to determine aggregation intervals for type-1 fuzzy sets, membership functions of whose are low membership function and upper membership function of interval type-2 fuzzy set. These aggregation intervals were called weighted intervals. Low and upper membership functions of input and output interval type-2 fuzzy sets for developed regression models are considered as piecewise linear functions.

Keywords: Interval type-2 fuzzy sets, fuzzy regression, weighted interval.

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Authors: Ekaterina Artiukhina, Panagiotis Grammelis

Abstract:

Torrefaction of biomass pellets is considered as a useful pretreatment technology in order to convert them into a high quality solid biofuel that is more suitable for pyrolysis, gasification, combustion, and co-firing applications. In the course of torrefaction, the temperature varies across the pellet, and therefore chemical reactions proceed unevenly within the pellet. However, the uniformity of the thermal distribution along the pellet is generally assumed. The torrefaction process of a single cylindrical pellet is modeled here, accounting for heat transfer coupled with chemical kinetics. The drying sub-model was also introduced. The nonstationary process of wood pellet decomposition is described by the system of non-linear partial differential equations over the temperature and mass. The model captures well the main features of the experimental data.

Keywords: Torrefaction, biomass pellets, model, heat and mass transfer.

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Authors: Shield B. Lin, Sameer Abdali

Abstract:

Computer simulations were performed using MATLAB/Simulink for a vibration isolation system for astronaut’s exercise platform. Simulation parameters initially were based on an on-going experiment in a laboratory at NASA Johnson Space Center. The authors expanded later simulations to include other parameters. A discrete proportional-integral-derivative controller with a low-pass filter commanding a linear actuator served as the active control unit to push and pull a counterweight in balancing the disturbance forces. A spring-damper device is used as an optional passive control unit. Simulation results indicated such design could achieve near complete vibration isolation with small displacements of the exercise platform.

Keywords: Control, counterweight, isolation, vibration.

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Authors: FiroozBakhtiari-Nejad, Hamidreza Rostami, MeysamMirzaee, Mona Zandbaf

Abstract:

Dynamic tests are an important step of the design of engineering structures, because the accuracy of predictions of theoretical–numerical procedures can be assessed. In experimental test of moving loads that is one of the major research topics, the load is modeled as a simple moving mass or a small vehicle. This paper deals with the applicability of Non-contact Moving Load (NML) for vibration analysis. For this purpose, an experimental set-up is designed to generate the different types of NML including constant and harmonic. The proposed method relies on pressurized air which is useful, especially when dealing with fragile or sensitive structures. To demonstrate the performance of this system, the set-up is employedfor a modal analysis of a beam and detecting crack of the beam.The obtained results indicate that the experimental set-up for NML can be an attractive alternative to the moving load problems.

Keywords: Experimental analysis, Moving load, Non-contact excitation.

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Authors: José Leandro Melgar Néris, Claudinéia Brazil, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Isabel Cristina Damin

Abstract:

The impact the climate change is not recent, the main variable in the hydrological cycle is the sequence and shortage of a drought, which has a significant impact on the socioeconomic, agricultural and environmental spheres. This study aims to characterize and quantify, based on precipitation climatic projections, the rainy and dry events in the region of the Uruguay River Basin, through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The database is the image that is part of the Intercomparison of Model Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which provides condition prediction models, organized according to the Representative Routes of Concentration (CPR). Compared to the normal set of climates in the Uruguay River Watershed through precipitation projections, seasonal precipitation increases for all proposed scenarios, with a low climate trend. From the data of this research, the idea is that this article can be used to support research and the responsible bodies can use it as a subsidy for mitigation measures in other hydrographic basins.

Keywords: Drought index, climatic projections, precipitation of the Uruguay River Basin, Standardized Precipitation Index.

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Authors: J. Jezierski, K. Janerka

Abstract:

The results of the two-phase gas-solid jet in pneumatic powder injection process analysis were presented in the paper. The researches were conducted on model set-up with high speed camera jet movement recording. Then the recorded material was analyzed to estimate main particles movement parameters. The values obtained from this direct measurement were compared to those calculated with the use of the well-known formulas for the two-phase flows (pneumatic conveying). Moreover, they were compared to experimental results previously achieved by authors. The analysis led to conclusions which to some extent changed the assumptions used even by authors, regarding the two-phase jet in pneumatic powder injection process. Additionally, the visual analysis of the recorded clips supplied data to make a more complete evaluation of the jet behavior in the lance outlet than before.

Keywords: injection lance, liquid metal, powder injection, slip velocity, two-phase jet

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Authors: M. Hassani, Y. Hassani, N. Ajudanioskooei, N. N. Benvid

Abstract:

Laser Forming process as a non-contact thermal forming process is widely used to forming and bending of metallic and non-metallic sheets. In this process, according to laser irradiation along a specific path, sheet is bent. One of the most important output parameters in laser forming is bending angle that depends on process parameters such as physical and mechanical properties of materials, laser power, laser travel speed and the number of scan passes. In this paper, Artificial Neural Network and Fuzzy Logic System were used to predict of bending angle in laser forming process. Inputs to these models were laser travel speed and laser power. The comparison between artificial neural network and fuzzy logic models with experimental results has been shown both of these models have high ability to prediction of bending angles with minimum errors.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, bending angle, fuzzy logic, laser forming.

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Authors: Murad A, Baker H, Mahmoud S, Gabr A

Abstract:

The groundwater is one of the main sources for sustainability in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Intensive developments in Al-Ain area lead to increase water demand, which consequently reduced the overall groundwater quantity in major aquifers. However, in certain residential areas within Al-Ain, it has been noticed that the groundwater level is rising, for example in Sha-ab Al Askher area. The reasons for the groundwater rising phenomenon are yet to be investigated. In this work, twenty four seismic refraction profiles have been carried out along the study pilot area; as well as field measurement of the groundwater level in a number of available water wells in the area. The processed seismic data indicated the deepest and shallowest groundwater levels are 15m and 2.3 meters respectively. This result is greatly consistent with the proper field measurement of the groundwater level. The minimum detected value may be referred to perched subsurface water which may be associated to the infiltration from the surrounding water bodies such as lakes, and elevated farms. The maximum values indicate the accurate groundwater level within the study area. The findings of this work may be considered as a preliminary help to the decision makers.

Keywords: groundwater, shallow seismic method, United Arab Emirates

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Authors: Nurhayati Abdullah, Fauziah Sulaiman, Muhamad Azman Miskam, Rahmad Mohd Taib

Abstract:

Banana pseudo-stem and fruit-bunch-stem are agricultural residues that can be used for conversion to bio-char, biooil, and gases by using thermochemical process. The aim of this work is to characterize banana pseudo-stem and banana fruit-bunch-stem through proximate analysis, elemental analysis, chemical analysis, thermo-gravimetric analysis, and heating calorific value. The ash contents of the banana pseudo-stem and banana fruit-bunch-stem are 11.0 mf wt.% and 20.6 mf wt.%; while the carbon content of banana pseudo-stem and fruit-bunch-stem are 37.9 mf wt.% and 35.58 mf wt.% respectively. The molecular formulas for banana stem and banana fruit-bunch-stem are C24H33NO26 and C19H29NO33 respectively. The measured higher heating values of banana pseudostem and banana fruit-bunch-stem are 15.5MJ/kg and 12.7 MJ/kg respectively. By chemical analysis, the lignin, cellulose, and hemicellulose contents in the samples will also be presented. The feasibility of the banana wastes to be a feedstock for thermochemical process in comparison with other biomass will be discussed in this paper.

Keywords: Banana Waste, Biomass, Renewable Energy, Thermo-chemical Characteristics.

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Authors: Saima Ayaz, Zakir Hussain, Maqbool Hussain Sial

Abstract:

The study identified the sources of production inefficiency of the farming sector in district Faisalabad in the Punjab province of Pakistan. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique was utilized at farm level survey data of 300 farmers for the year 2009. The overall mean efficiency score was 0.78 indicating 22 percent inefficiency of the sample farmers. Computed efficiency scores were then regressed on farm specific variables using Tobit regression analysis. Farming experience, education, access to farming credit, herd size and number of cultivation practices showed constructive and significant effect on the farmer-s technical efficiency.

Keywords: Agricultural credit, DEA, Technical efficiency, Tobit analysis

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Authors: DucKien Thai, Seung EockKim

Abstract:

A numerical analysis of a reinforced concrete (RC) wall under missile impact loading is presented in this study. The model created by Technical Research Center of Finland was used. The commercial finite element code, LS-DYNA was used to analyze. The structural components of the reinforced concrete wall, missile and their contacts are fully modeled. The material nonlinearity with strain rate effects considering damage and failure is included in the analysis. The results of analysis were verified with other research results. The case-studies with different reinforcement ratios were conducted to investigate the influence of reinforcement on the punching behavior of walls under missile impact.

Keywords: Missile Impact, Reinforced Concrete Walls, LSDYNA, Dynamic Analysis, Punching Behavior.

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