Search results for: prediction of reservoir lithology

Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

Abstract:

Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: Cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

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Authors: Marine Segui, Ruxandra Mihaela Botez

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OpenVSP is an aerodynamic solver developed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that allows building a reliable model of an aircraft. This software performs an aerodynamic simulation according to the angle of attack of the aircraft makes between the incoming airstream, and its speed. A reliable aerodynamic model of the Cessna Citation X was designed but it required a lot of computation time. As a consequence, a prediction method was established that allowed predicting lift and drag coefficients for all Mach numbers and for all angles of attack, exclusively for stall conditions, from a computation of three angles of attack and only one Mach number. Aerodynamic coefficients given by the prediction method for a Cessna Citation X model were finally compared with aerodynamics coefficients obtained using a complete OpenVSP study.

Keywords: Aerodynamic, coefficient, cruise, improving, longitudinal, OpenVSP, solver, time.

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Authors: Nor Azuana Ramli, Mohd Tahir Ismail, Hooy Chee Wooi

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Developing a stable early warning system (EWS) model that is capable to give an accurate prediction is a challenging task. This paper introduces k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) method which never been applied in predicting currency crisis before with the aim of increasing the prediction accuracy. The proposed k-NN performance depends on the choice of a distance that is used where in our analysis; we take the Euclidean distance and the Manhattan as a consideration. For the comparison, we employ three other methods which are logistic regression analysis (logit), back-propagation neural network (NN) and sequential minimal optimization (SMO). The analysis using datasets from 8 countries and 13 macro-economic indicators for each country shows that the proposed k-NN method with k = 4 and Manhattan distance performs better than the other methods.

Keywords: Currency crisis, k-nearest neighbour method, logit, neural network.

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Authors: Chyn Liaw, Chun-Wei Tung, Shinn-Jang Ho, Shinn-Ying Ho

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The γ-turns play important roles in protein folding and molecular recognition. The prediction and analysis of γ-turn types are important for both protein structure predictions and better understanding the characteristics of different γ-turn types. This study proposed a physicochemical property-based decision tree (PPDT) method to interpretably predict γ-turn types. In addition to the good prediction performance of PPDT, three simple and human interpretable IF-THEN rules are extracted from the decision tree constructed by PPDT. The identified informative physicochemical properties and concise rules provide a simple way for discriminating and understanding γ-turn types.

Keywords: Classification and regression tree (CART), γ-turn, Physicochemical properties, Protein secondary structure.

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

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The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: Comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events.

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Authors: Irene Luque Ruiz, Manuel Urbano Cuadrado, Miguel Ángel Gómez-Nieto

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In this paper we study different similarity based approaches for the development of QSAR model devoted to the prediction of activity of antiobesity drugs. Classical similarity approaches are compared regarding to dissimilarity models based on the consideration of the calculation of Euclidean distances between the nonisomorphic fragments extracted in the matching process. Combining the classical similarity and dissimilarity approaches into a new similarity measure, the Approximate Similarity was also studied, and better results were obtained. The application of the proposed method to the development of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) has provided reliable tools for predicting of inhibitory activity of drugs. Acceptable results were obtained for the models presented here.

Keywords: Graph similarity, Nonisomorphic dissimilarity, Approximate similarity, Drugs activity prediction.

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Authors: Davoud Beheshtizadeh, Farzin Malekpour

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The progress of technology and producing new machinery have made a big change in excavation operations and construction of underground structures. The limitations of space and some other economic, politic and military considerations gained the attention of most developed and developing countries towards the construction of these structures for mine, military, and development objectives. Underground highways, tunnels, subways, oil reservoir resources, fuels, nuclear wastes burying reservoir and underground stores are increasingly developing and being used in these countries. The existence and habitability of the cities depend on these underground installations or in other words these vital arteries. Stopping the flow of water, gas leakage and explosion, collapsing of sewage paths, etc., resulting from the earthquake are among the factors that can severely harm the environment and increase the casualty. Lack of sewage network and complete stoppage of the flow of water in Bam (Iran) is a good example of this kind. In this paper, we investigate the effect of wave orientation on structures and deformation of them and the effect of faulting on underground structures, and then, we study resistance of reinforced concrete against earthquake, simulate two different samples, analyze the result and point out the importance of paying attention to underground installations.

Keywords: Earthquake, underground structures, underground installations.

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Authors: Hamza Nejib, Okba Taouali

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This paper presents two of the most knowing kernel adaptive filtering (KAF) approaches, the kernel least mean squares and the kernel recursive least squares, in order to predict a new output of nonlinear signal processing. Both of these methods implement a nonlinear transfer function using kernel methods in a particular space named reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) where the model is a linear combination of kernel functions applied to transform the observed data from the input space to a high dimensional feature space of vectors, this idea known as the kernel trick. Then KAF is the developing filters in RKHS. We use two nonlinear signal processing problems, Mackey Glass chaotic time series prediction and nonlinear channel equalization to figure the performance of the approaches presented and finally to result which of them is the adapted one.

Keywords: KLMS, online prediction, KAF, signal processing, RKHS, Kernel methods, KRLS, KLMS.

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Authors: M. F. V. Montezuma, E. P. Deus, M. C. Carvalho

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Steel bridges are normally subjected to random loads with different traffic frequencies. They are structures with dynamic behavior and are subject to fatigue failure process, where the nucleation of a crack, growth and failure can occur. After locating and determining the size of an existing fault, it is important to predict the crack propagation and the convenient time for repair. Therefore, fracture mechanics and fatigue concepts are essential to the right approach to the problem. To study the fatigue crack growth, a computational code was developed by using the root mean square (RMS) and the cycle-by-cycle models. One observes the variable amplitude loading influence on the life structural prediction. Different loads histories and initial crack length were considered as input variables. Thus, it was evaluated the dispersion of results of the expected structural life choosing different initial parameters.

Keywords: Fatigue crack propagation, life prediction, variable loadings, steel bridges.

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Authors: A. I. Augie, M. Saleh, A. A. Gado

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In this research, Self-Potential (SP) method was employed to locate anomalous electrical conductivity located in Goronyo area and also to determine the condition of the embankment of the dam. SP data were plotted against distance along with the profile and spacing of electrode using surfer software (version 12). High and low zones of SP values were identified along the right and left abutments of the dam reservoir. The regions with high SP values were described to be high tendency of fluid flow associate with wet sandy soil. These zones have the SP values ranging from 200 mV and above. High SP values were due to the high moisture content that may lead to the seepage of water leaking through this zone. The zones with high SP values occupied Profiles S1, S2, S3, S4 and S5 indicating the presence of potential seepage paths within the subsurface of the embankment. These regions of seepage were identified as weak zones and potential pathways through which water could be lost from the dam reservoir. The SP values for the regions range from 250 m to 400 m (S1), 306 m to 400 m (S2), 192 m to 400 m (S3), 48 m to 200 m (S4) and 7 m to 170 m (S5) with their corresponding maximum depths of 30 m, 28 m, 28 m, 30 m and 26 m respectively. However, zones of low SP values in the overburden were observed which shows the presence of intact regions, which may be due to the compactness and dryness around the dam. The weak zones were considered as geological features (such as fractures, joints, and faults) that have undermined the integrity of the dam structure, which has led to the abnormal seepage.

Keywords: Self-potential, subsurface, seepage, condition and dam.

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Authors: Masahiro Ohmura, Koh Kakusho, Takeshi Okadome

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This paper presents a regression model with autocorrelated errors in which the inputs are social moods obtained by analyzing the adjectives in Twitter posts using a document topic model, where document topics are extracted using LDA. The regression model predicts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more precisely than autoregressive moving-average models.

Keywords: Regression model, social mood, stock market prediction, Twitter.

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Authors: E. Ardil, Erdem Uçar, Parvinder S. Sandhu

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As the majority of faults are found in a few of its modules so there is a need to investigate the modules that are affected severely as compared to other modules and proper maintenance need to be done on time especially for the critical applications. In this paper, we have explored the different predictor models to NASA-s public domain defect dataset coded in Perl programming language. Different machine learning algorithms belonging to the different learner categories of the WEKA project including Mamdani Based Fuzzy Inference System and Neuro-fuzzy based system have been evaluated for the modeling of maintenance severity or impact of fault severity. The results are recorded in terms of Accuracy, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The results show that Neuro-fuzzy based model provides relatively better prediction accuracy as compared to other models and hence, can be used for the maintenance severity prediction of the software.

Keywords: Software Metrics, Fuzzy, Neuro-Fuzzy, SoftwareFaults, Accuracy, MAE, RMSE.

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Authors: Chang S. Woo, Hyun S. Park, Wan D. Kim

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Fatigue life prediction and evaluation are the key technologies to assure the safety and reliability of automotive rubber components. The objective of this study is to develop the fatigue analysis process for vulcanized rubber components, which is applicable to predict fatigue life at initial product design step. Fatigue life prediction methodology of vulcanized natural rubber was proposed by incorporating the finite element analysis and fatigue damage parameter of maximum strain appearing at the critical location determined from fatigue test. In order to develop an appropriate fatigue damage parameter of the rubber material, a series of displacement controlled fatigue test was conducted using threedimensional dumbbell specimen with different levels of mean displacement. It was shown that the maximum strain was a proper damage parameter, taking the mean displacement effects into account. Nonlinear finite element analyses of three-dimensional dumbbell specimens were performed based on a hyper-elastic material model determined from the uni-axial tension, equi-biaxial tension and planar test. Fatigue analysis procedure employed in this study could be used approximately for the fatigue design.

Keywords: Rubber, Material test, Finite element analysis, Strain, Fatigue test, Fatigue life prediction.

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Authors: N. K. Ambujam, V. Sudha

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Reservoirs are being contaminated all around the world with point source and Non-Point Source (NPS) pollution. The most common NPS pollutants are sediments and nutrients. Krishnagiri Reservoir (KR) has been chosen for the present case study, which is located in the tropical semi-arid climatic zone of Tamil Nadu, South India. It is the main source of surface water in Krishnagiri district to meet the freshwater demands. The reservoir has lost about 40% of its water holding capacity due to sedimentation over the period of 50 years. Hence, from the research and management perspective, there is a need for a sound knowledge on the spatial and seasonal variations of KR water quality. The present study encompasses the specific objectives as (i) to investigate the longitudinal heterogeneity and seasonal variations of physicochemical parameters, nutrients and biological characteristics of KR water and (ii) to examine the extent of degradation of water quality in KR. 15 sampling points were identified by uniform stratified method and a systematic monthly sampling strategy was selected due to high dynamic nature in its hydrological characteristics. The physicochemical parameters, major ions, nutrients and Chlorophyll a (Chl a) were analysed. Trophic status of KR was classified by using Carlson's Trophic State Index (TSI). All statistical analyses were performed by using Statistical Package for Social Sciences programme, version-16.0. Spatial maps were prepared for Chl a using Arc GIS. Observations in KR pointed out that electrical conductivity and major ions are highly variable factors as it receives inflow from the catchment with different land use activities. The study of major ions in KR exhibited different trends in their values and it could be concluded that as the monsoon progresses the major ions in the water decreases or water quality stabilizes. The inflow point of KR showed comparatively higher concentration of nutrients including nitrate, soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), total phosphors (TP), total suspended phosphorus (TSP) and total dissolved phosphorus (TDP) during monsoon seasons. This evidently showed the input of significant amount of nutrients from the catchment side through agricultural runoff. High concentration of TDP and TSP at the lacustrine zone of the reservoir during summer season evidently revealed that there was a significant release of phosphorus from the bottom sediments. Carlson’s TSI of KR ranged between 81 and 92 during northeast monsoon and summer seasons. High and permanent Cyanobacterial bloom in KR could be mainly due to the internal loading of phosphorus from the bottom sediments. According to Carlson’s TSI classification Krishnagiri reservoir was ranked in the hyper-eutrophic category. This study provides necessary basic data on the spatio-temporal variations of water quality in KR and also proves the impact of point and NPS pollution from the catchment area. High TSI warrants a greater threat for the recovery of internal P loading and hyper-eutrophic condition of KR. Several expensive internal measures for the reduction of internal loading of P were introduced by many scientists. However, the outcome of the present research suggests for the innovative algae harvesting technique for the removal of sediment nutrients.

Keywords: Hyper-eutrophication, Krishnagiri reservoir, nutrients, NPS pollution.

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Authors: Chia-Ta Tsai, Wen-Lin Huang, Shinn-Jang Ho, Li-Sun Shu, Shinn-Ying Ho

Abstract:

Prediction of bacterial virulent protein sequences can give assistance to identification and characterization of novel virulence-associated factors and discover drug/vaccine targets against proteins indispensable to pathogenicity. Gene Ontology (GO) annotation which describes functions of genes and gene products as a controlled vocabulary of terms has been shown effectively for a variety of tasks such as gene expression study, GO annotation prediction, protein subcellular localization, etc. In this study, we propose a sequence-based method Virulent-GO by mining informative GO terms as features for predicting bacterial virulent proteins. Each protein in the datasets used by the existing method VirulentPred is annotated by using BLAST to obtain its homologies with known accession numbers for retrieving GO terms. After investigating various popular classifiers using the same five-fold cross-validation scheme, Virulent-GO using the single kind of GO term features with an accuracy of 82.5% is slightly better than VirulentPred with 81.8% using five kinds of sequence-based features. For the evaluation of independent test, Virulent-GO also yields better results (82.0%) than VirulentPred (80.7%). When evaluating single kind of feature with SVM, the GO term feature performs much well, compared with each of the five kinds of features.

Keywords: Bacterial virulence factors, GO terms, prediction, protein sequence.

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Authors: S. Chikh, S. Boulifa

Abstract:

The present study addresses the problem of ammonia evaporation during filling of a vertical cylindrical tank and the influence of various external factors on the stability of storage by determining the conditions for minimum evaporation. Numerical simulation is carried out by solving the governing equations namely, continuity, momentum, energy, and diffusion of species. The effect of temperature of surrounding air, the filling speed of the reservoir and the temperature of the filling liquid ammonia on the evaporation rate is investigated. Results show that the temperature of the filling liquid has little effect on the liquid ammonia for a short period, which, in fact, is function of the filling speed. The evaporation rate along the free surface of the liquid is non-uniform. The inlet temperature affects the vapor ammonia temperature because of pressure increase. The temperature of the surrounding air affects the temperature of the vapor phase rather than the liquid phase. The maximum of evaporation is reached at the final step of filling. In order to minimize loss of ammonia vapors automatically causing losses in quantity of the liquid stored, it is suggested to ensure the proper insulation for the walls and roof of the reservoir and to increase the filling speed.

Keywords: Evaporation, liquid ammonia, storage tank, numerical simulation.

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Authors: Chuan-Ching Sue, Shi-Zhou Chen, Ting-Yu Huang

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Dynamic bandwidth allocation in EPONs can be generally separated into inter-ONU scheduling and intra-ONU scheduling. In our previous work, the active intra-ONU scheduling (AS) utilizes multiple queue reports (QRs) in each report message to cooperate with the inter-ONU scheduling and makes the granted bandwidth fully utilized without leaving unused slot remainder (USR). This scheme successfully solves the USR problem originating from the inseparability of Ethernet frame. However, without proper setting of threshold value in AS, the number of QRs constrained by the IEEE 802.3ah standard is not enough, especially in the unbalanced traffic environment. This limitation may be solved by enlarging the threshold value. The large threshold implies the large gap between the adjacent QRs, thus resulting in the large difference between the best granted bandwidth and the real granted bandwidth. In this paper, we integrate AS with a cooperative prediction mechanism and distribute multiple QRs to reduce the penalty brought by the prediction error. Furthermore, to improve the QoS and save the usage of queue reports, the highest priority (EF) traffic which comes during the waiting time is granted automatically by OLT and is not considered in the requested bandwidth of ONU. The simulation results show that the proposed scheme has better performance metrics in terms of bandwidth utilization and average delay for different classes of packets.

Keywords: EPON, Inter-ONU and Intra-ONU scheduling, Prediction, Unused slot remainder

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Authors: M.E.Karbaschi, R.Goudarzizadeh, N.Hedayat

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Cylindrical concrete reservoirs are appropriate choice for storing liquids as water, oil and etc. By using of the pre-cast concrete reservoirs instead of the in-situ constructed reservoirs, the speed and precision of the construction would considerably increase. In this construction method, wall and roof panels would make in factory with high quality materials and precise controlling. Then, pre-cast wall and roof panels would carry out to the construction site for assembling. This method has a few faults such as: the existing weeks in connection of wall panels together and wall panels to foundation. Therefore, these have to be resisted under applied loads such as seismic load. One of the innovative methods which was successfully applied for seismic retrofitting of numerous pre-cast cylindrical water reservoirs in New Zealand, using of the high tensile cables around the reservoirs and post-tensioning them. In this paper, analytical modeling of wall and roof panels and post-tensioned cables are carried out with finite element method and the effect of height to diameter ratio, post-tensioning force value, liquid level in reservoir, installing position of tendons on seismic response of reservoirs are investigated.

Keywords: Seismic Retrofit, Pre-Cast, Concrete Reservoir, Post-Tensioning.

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Authors: Sofien Chtourou, Mohamed Chtourou, Omar Hammami

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Embedded systems need to respect stringent real time constraints. Various hardware components included in such systems such as cache memories exhibit variability and therefore affect execution time. Indeed, a cache memory access from an embedded microprocessor might result in a cache hit where the data is available or a cache miss and the data need to be fetched with an additional delay from an external memory. It is therefore highly desirable to predict future memory accesses during execution in order to appropriately prefetch data without incurring delays. In this paper, we evaluate the potential of several artificial neural networks for the prediction of instruction memory addresses. Neural network have the potential to tackle the nonlinear behavior observed in memory accesses during program execution and their demonstrated numerous hardware implementation emphasize this choice over traditional forecasting techniques for their inclusion in embedded systems. However, embedded applications execute millions of instructions and therefore millions of addresses to be predicted. This very challenging problem of neural network based prediction of large time series is approached in this paper by evaluating various neural network architectures based on the recurrent neural network paradigm with pre-processing based on the Self Organizing Map (SOM) classification technique.

Keywords: Address, data set, memory, prediction, recurrentneural network.

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Authors: Mahdi Yaghobi, Mohammad Haeri

Abstract:

The current methods of predictive controllers are utilized for those processes in which the rate of output variations is not high. For such processes, therefore, stability can be achieved by implementing the constrained predictive controller or applying infinite prediction horizon. When the rate of the output growth is high (e.g. for unstable nonminimum phase process) the stabilization seems to be problematic. In order to avoid this, it is suggested to change the method in the way that: first, the prediction error growth should be decreased at the early stage of the prediction horizon, and second, the rate of the error variation should be penalized. The growth of the error is decreased through adjusting its weighting coefficients in the cost function. Reduction in the error variation is possible by adding the first order derivate of the error into the cost function. By studying different examples it is shown that using these two remedies together, the closed-loop stability of unstable nonminimum phase process can be achieved.

Keywords: GPC, Stability, Varying Weighting Coefficients.

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Authors: Yu Zhao, Min Zhang, Yuanqian Wang, Qiuyu Yu

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The prediction of aesthetics of apparel is helpful for the development of a new type of apparel. This study is to build the quantitative relationship between the aesthetics and its design parameters. In particular, women’s pants have been preliminarily studied. This aforementioned relationship has been carried out by statistical analysis. The contributions of this study include the development of a more personalized apparel design mechanism and the provision of some empirical knowledge for the development of other products in the aspect of aesthetics.

Keywords: Aesthetics, crease line, cropped straight leg pants, knee width.

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Authors: Sagir M. Yusuf, Chris Baber

Abstract:

In this paper, we describe how to achieve knowledge understanding and prediction (Situation Awareness (SA)) for multiple-agents conducting searching activity using Bayesian inferential reasoning and learning. Bayesian Belief Network was used to monitor agents' knowledge about their environment, and cases are recorded for the network training using expectation-maximisation or gradient descent algorithm. The well trained network will be used for decision making and environmental situation prediction. Forest fire searching by multiple UAVs was the use case. UAVs are tasked to explore a forest and find a fire for urgent actions by the fire wardens. The paper focused on two problems: (i) effective agents’ path planning strategy and (ii) knowledge understanding and prediction (SA). The path planning problem by inspiring animal mode of foraging using Lévy distribution augmented with Bayesian reasoning was fully described in this paper. Results proof that the Lévy flight strategy performs better than the previous fixed-pattern (e.g., parallel sweeps) approaches in terms of energy and time utilisation. We also introduced a waypoint assessment strategy called k-previous waypoints assessment. It improves the performance of the ordinary levy flight by saving agent’s resources and mission time through redundant search avoidance. The agents (UAVs) are to report their mission knowledge at the central server for interpretation and prediction purposes. Bayesian reasoning and learning were used for the SA and results proof effectiveness in different environments scenario in terms of prediction and effective knowledge representation. The prediction accuracy was measured using learning error rate, logarithm loss, and Brier score and the result proves that little agents mission that can be used for prediction within the same or different environment. Finally, we described a situation-based knowledge visualization and prediction technique for heterogeneous multi-UAV mission. While this paper proves linkage of Bayesian reasoning and learning with SA and effective searching strategy, future works is focusing on simplifying the architecture.

Keywords: Lèvy flight, situation awareness, multi-agent system, multi-robot coordination, autonomous system, swarm intelligence.

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Authors: V. G. Rifert, V. V. Gorin, V. V. Sereda, V. V. Treputnev

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The analysis of heat transfer design methods in condensing inside plain tubes under existing influence of shear stress is presented in this paper. The existing discrepancy in more than 30-50% between rating heat transfer coefficients and experimental data has been noted. The analysis of existing theoretical and semi-empirical methods of heat transfer prediction is given. The influence of a precise definition concerning boundaries of phase flow (it is especially important in condensing inside horizontal tubes), shear stress (friction coefficient) and heat flux on design of heat transfer is shown. The substantiation of boundary conditions of the values of parameters, influencing accuracy of rated relationships, is given. More correct relationships for heat transfer prediction, which showed good convergence with experiments made by different authors, are substantiated in this work.

Keywords: Film condensation, heat transfer, plain tube, shear stress.

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Authors: E. A. Mlybari, M. S. Elbisy, A. H. Alshahri, O. M. Albarakati

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Sea level rise threatens to increase the impact of future  storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. Accurate sea level  change prediction and supplement is an important task in determining  constructions and human activities in coastal and oceanic areas. In  this study, support vector machines (SVM) is proposed to predict  daily tidal levels along the Jeddah Coast, Saudi Arabia. The optimal  parameter values of kernel function are determined using a genetic  algorithm. The SVM results are compared with the field data and  with back propagation (BP). Among the models, the SVM is superior  to BPNN and has better generalization performance.

 

Keywords: Tides, Prediction, Support Vector Machines, Genetic Algorithm, Back-Propagation Neural Network, Risk, Hazards.

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Authors: Mohamed A. G. H. Abdalsadig, Amir Nourian, G. G. Nasr, Meisam Babaie

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Gas lift optimization is becoming more important now a day in petroleum industry. A proper lift optimization can reduce the operating cost, increase the net present value (NPV) and maximize the recovery from the asset. A widely accepted definition of gas lift optimization is to obtain the maximum output under specified operating conditions. In addition, gas lift, a costly and indispensable means to recover oil from high depth reservoir entails solving the gas lift optimization problems. Gas lift optimization is a continuous process; there are two levels of production optimization. The total field optimization involves optimizing the surface facilities and the injection rate that can be achieved by standard tools softwares. Well level optimization can be achieved by optimizing the well parameters such as point of injection, injection rate, and injection pressure. All these aspects have been investigated and presented in this study by using experimental data and PROSPER simulation program. The results show that the well head pressure has a large influence on the gas lift performance and also proved that smart gas lift valve can be used to improve gas lift performance by controlling gas injection from down hole. Obtaining the optimum gas injection rate is important because excessive gas injection reduces production rate and consequently increases the operation cost.

Keywords: Optimization, production rate, reservoir pressure effect, gas injection rate effect, gas injection pressure.

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Authors: Kamaldeep Kaur, Arvinder Kaur, Ruchika Malhotra

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The aim of this paper is to rank the impact of Object Oriented(OO) metrics in fault prediction modeling using Artificial Neural Networks(ANNs). Past studies on empirical validation of object oriented metrics as fault predictors using ANNs have focused on the predictive quality of neural networks versus standard statistical techniques. In this empirical study we turn our attention to the capability of ANNs in ranking the impact of these explanatory metrics on fault proneness. In ANNs data analysis approach, there is no clear method of ranking the impact of individual metrics. Five ANN based techniques are studied which rank object oriented metrics in predicting fault proneness of classes. These techniques are i) overall connection weights method ii) Garson-s method iii) The partial derivatives methods iv) The Input Perturb method v) the classical stepwise methods. We develop and evaluate different prediction models based on the ranking of the metrics by the individual techniques. The models based on overall connection weights and partial derivatives methods have been found to be most accurate.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks (ANNS), Backpropagation, Fault Prediction Modeling.

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Authors: T.A. Adegbola, IEA Aghachi, E.R. Sadiku

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To investigates the effect of fiberglass clamping process improvement on drape simulation prediction. This has great effect on the mould and the fiber during manufacturing process. This also, improves the fiber strain, the quality of the fiber orientation in the area of folding and wrinkles formation during the press-forming process. Drape simulation software tool was used to digitalize the process, noting the formation problems on the contour sensitive part. This was compared with the real life clamping processes using single and double frame set-ups to observe the effects. Also, restrains are introduced by using clips, and the G-clamps with predetermine revolution to; restrain the fabric deformation during the forming process.The incorporation of clamping and fabric restrain deformation improved on the prediction of the simulation tool. Therefore, for effective forming process, incorporation of clamping process into the drape simulation process will assist in the development of fiberglass application in manufacturing process.

Keywords: clamping, fiberglass, drape simulation, pressforming.

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Authors: Sulata Maharana, B Biswas, Adity Ganguly, Ashok Kumar

Abstract:

In this paper, the requirement for Coke quality prediction, its role in Blast furnaces, and the model output is explained. By applying method of Artificial Neural Networking (ANN) using back propagation (BP) algorithm, prediction model has been developed to predict CSR. Important blast furnace functions such as permeability, heat exchanging, melting, and reducing capacity are mostly connected to coke quality. Coke quality is further dependent upon coal characterization and coke making process parameters. The ANN model developed is a useful tool for process experts to adjust the control parameters in case of coke quality deviations. The model also makes it possible to predict CSR for new coal blends which are yet to be used in Coke Plant. Input data to the model was structured into 3 modules, for tenure of past 2 years and the incremental models thus developed assists in identifying the group causing the deviation of CSR.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, backpropagation, CokeStrength after Reaction, Multilayer Perceptron.

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Authors: Revanth Sai Kosaraju, Michael Ramscar, Melody Dye

Abstract:

Accounts of language acquisition differ significantly in their treatment of the role of prediction in language learning. In particular, nativist accounts posit that probabilistic learning about words and word sequences has little to do with how children come to use language. The accuracy of this claim was examined by testing whether distributional probabilities and frequency contributed to how well 3-4 year olds repeat simple word chunks. Corresponding chunks were the same length, expressed similar content, and were all grammatically acceptable, yet the results of the study showed marked differences in performance when overall distributional frequency varied. It was found that a distributional model of language predicted the empirical findings better than a number of other models, replicating earlier findings and showing that children attend to distributional probabilities in an adult corpus. This suggested that language is more prediction-and-error based, rather than on abstract rules which nativist camps suggest.

Keywords: Abstractness, child psychology, language acquisition, prediction and error.

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Authors: Prasit Wonglersak, Prakarnkiat Youngkong, Ittipon Cheowanish

Abstract:

This paper aims to improve a fine lapping process of hard disk drive (HDD) lapping machines by removing materials from each slider together with controlling the strip height (SH) variation to minimum value. The standard deviation is the key parameter to evaluate the strip height variation, hence it is minimized. In this paper, a design of experiment (DOE) with factorial analysis by twoway analysis of variance (ANOVA) is adopted to obtain a statistically information. The statistics results reveal that initial stripe height patterns affect the final SH variation. Therefore, initial SH classification using a radial basis function neural network is implemented to achieve the proportional gain prediction.

Keywords: Stripe height variation, Two-way analysis ofvariance (ANOVA), Radial basis function neural network, Proportional gain prediction.

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