Search results for: failure probability
1068 A Formal Approach for Proof Constructions in Cryptography
Authors: Markus Kaiser, Johannes Buchmann
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In this article we explore the application of a formal proof system to verification problems in cryptography. Cryptographic properties concerning correctness or security of some cryptographic algorithms are of great interest. Beside some basic lemmata, we explore an implementation of a complex function that is used in cryptography. More precisely, we describe formal properties of this implementation that we computer prove. We describe formalized probability distributions (σ-algebras, probability spaces and conditional probabilities). These are given in the formal language of the formal proof system Isabelle/HOL. Moreover, we computer prove Bayes- Formula. Besides, we describe an application of the presented formalized probability distributions to cryptography. Furthermore, this article shows that computer proofs of complex cryptographic functions are possible by presenting an implementation of the Miller- Rabin primality test that admits formal verification. Our achievements are a step towards computer verification of cryptographic primitives. They describe a basis for computer verification in cryptography. Computer verification can be applied to further problems in cryptographic research, if the corresponding basic mathematical knowledge is available in a database.Keywords: prime numbers, primality tests, (conditional) probabilitydistributions, formal proof system, higher-order logic, formalverification, Bayes' Formula, Miller-Rabin primality test.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14601067 Tobephobia: Teachers- Ineptitude to Manage Curriculum Change
Authors: P. Singh
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In this paper, Tobephobia (TBP) alludes to the fear of failure experienced by teachers to manage curriculum change. TBP is an emerging concept and it extends the boundaries of research in terms of how we view achievement and failure in education. Outcomes-based education (OBE) was introduced fifteen years ago in South African schools without simultaneously upgrading teachers- professional competencies. This exploratory research, therefore examines a simple question: What is the impact of TBP and OBE on teachers? Teacher ineptitude to cope with the OBE curriculum in the classroom is a serious problem affecting large numbers of South African teachers. This exploratory study sought to determine the perceived negative impact of OBE and TBP on teachers. A survey was conducted amongst 311 teachers in Port Elizabeth and Durban, South Africa. The results confirm the very negative impact of TBP and OBE on teachers. This exploratory study authenticates the existence of TBP.Keywords: Curriculum change, fear of failure in education, outcomes-based education, Tobephobia.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21181066 Computer Verification in Cryptography
Authors: Markus Kaiser, Johannes Buchmann
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In this paper we explore the application of a formal proof system to verification problems in cryptography. Cryptographic properties concerning correctness or security of some cryptographic algorithms are of great interest. Beside some basic lemmata, we explore an implementation of a complex function that is used in cryptography. More precisely, we describe formal properties of this implementation that we computer prove. We describe formalized probability distributions (o--algebras, probability spaces and condi¬tional probabilities). These are given in the formal language of the formal proof system Isabelle/HOL. Moreover, we computer prove Bayes' Formula. Besides we describe an application of the presented formalized probability distributions to cryptography. Furthermore, this paper shows that computer proofs of complex cryptographic functions are possible by presenting an implementation of the Miller- Rabin primality test that admits formal verification. Our achievements are a step towards computer verification of cryptographic primitives. They describe a basis for computer verification in cryptography. Computer verification can be applied to further problems in crypto-graphic research, if the corresponding basic mathematical knowledge is available in a database.
Keywords: prime numbers, primality tests, (conditional) proba¬bility distributions, formal proof system, higher-order logic, formal verification, Bayes' Formula, Miller-Rabin primality test.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21711065 Paradigm of Relocation of Urban Poor Habitats (Slums): Case Study of Nagpur City
Authors: Vijay Kapse, Arun Pofale, Mayank Mathur
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Developing countries are facing a problem of slums and there appears to be no fool proof solution to eradicate them. For improving the quality of life there are three approaches of slum development and In-situ up-gradation approach is found to be the best one, while the relocation approach has proved to be failure. Factors responsible for failure of relocation projects are needed to be assessed, which is the basic aim of the paper. Factors responsible for failure of relocation projects are loss of livelihood, security of tenure and inefficiency of the Government. These factors are traced out & mapped from the examples of Western & Indian cities. National habitat, Resettlement policy emphasized relationship between shelter and work place. SRA has identified 55 slums for relocation due reservation of land uses, security of tenure and non- notified status of slums. The policy guidelines have been suggested for successful relocation projects. KeywordsLivelihood, Relocation, Slums, Urban poor.Keywords: Livelihood, Relocation, Slums, Urban poor.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 41111064 A Proposed Technique for Software Development Risks Identification by using FTA Model
Authors: Hatem A. Khater, A. Baith Mohamed, Sara M. Kamel
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Software Development Risks Identification (SDRI), using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), is a proposed technique to identify not only the risk factors but also the causes of the appearance of the risk factors in software development life cycle. The method is based on analyzing the probable causes of software development failures before they become problems and adversely affect a project. It uses Fault tree analysis (FTA) to determine the probability of a particular system level failures that are defined by A Taxonomy for Sources of Software Development Risk to deduce failure analysis in which an undesired state of a system by using Boolean logic to combine a series of lower-level events. The major purpose of this paper is to use the probabilistic calculations of Fault Tree Analysis approach to determine all possible causes that lead to software development risk occurrenceKeywords: Software Development Risks Identification (SDRI), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Taxonomy for Software Development Risks (TSDR), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22011063 Time-Domain Stator Current Condition Monitoring: Analyzing Point Failures Detection by Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) Test
Authors: Najmeh Bolbolamiri, Maryam Setayesh Sanai, Ahmad Mirabadi
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This paper deals with condition monitoring of electric switch machine for railway points. Point machine, as a complex electro-mechanical device, switch the track between two alternative routes. There has been an increasing interest in railway safety and the optimal management of railway equipments maintenance, e.g. point machine, in order to enhance railway service quality and reduce system failure. This paper explores the development of Kolmogorov- Smirnov (K-S) test to detect some point failures (external to the machine, slide chairs, fixing, stretchers, etc), while the point machine (inside the machine) is in its proper condition. Time-domain stator Current signatures of normal (healthy) and faulty points are taken by 3 Hall Effect sensors and are analyzed by K-S test. The test is simulated by creating three types of such failures, namely putting a hard stone and a soft stone between stock rail and switch blades as obstacles and also slide chairs- friction. The test has been applied for those three faults which the results show that K-S test can effectively be developed for the aim of other point failures detection, which their current signatures deviate parametrically from the healthy current signature. K-S test as an analysis technique, assuming that any defect has a specific probability distribution. Empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF) are used to differentiate these probability distributions. This test works based on the null hypothesis that ECDF of target distribution is statistically similar to ECDF of reference distribution. Therefore by comparing a given current signature (as target signal) from unknown switch state to a number of template signatures (as reference signal) from known switch states, it is possible to identify which is the most likely state of the point machine under analysis.
Keywords: stator currents monitoring, railway points, point failures, fault detection and diagnosis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, time-domain analysis.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18141062 Critical Analysis of Heat Exchanger Cycle for its Maintainability Using Failure Modes and Effect Analysis and Pareto Analysis
Authors: Sayali Vyas, Atharva Desai, Shreyas Badave, Apurv Kulkarni, B. Rajiv
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The Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is an efficient evaluation technique to identify potential failures in products, processes, and services. FMEA is designed to identify and prioritize failure modes. It proves to be a useful method for identifying and correcting possible failures at its earliest possible level so that one can avoid consequences of poor performance. In this paper, FMEA tool is used in detection of failures of various components of heat exchanger cycle and to identify critical failures of the components which may hamper the system’s performance. Further, a detailed Pareto analysis is done to find out the most critical components of the cycle, the causes of its failures, and possible recommended actions. This paper can be used as a checklist which will help in maintainability of the system.
Keywords: FMEA, heat exchanger cycle, Ishikawa diagram, Pareto analysis, risk priority number.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16331061 A Tool for Modeling Slope Instability Triggered by Piping
Authors: Paola Gattinoni, Vincenzo Francani
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The paper deals with the analysis of triggering conditions and evolution processes of piping phenomena, in relation to both mechanical and hydraulic aspects. In particular, the aim of the study is to predict slope instabilities triggered by piping, analysing the conditions necessary for a flow failure to occur. Really, the mechanical effect involved in the loads redistribution around the pipe is coupled to the drainage process arising from higher permeability of the pipe. If after the pipe formation, the drainage goes prevented for pipe clogging, the porewater pressure increase can lead to the failure or even the liquefaction, with a subsequent flow slide. To simulate the piping evolution and to verify relevant stability conditions, a iterative coupled modelling approach has been pointed out. As example, the proposed tool has been applied to the Stava Valley disaster (July, 1985), demonstrating that piping might be one of triggering phenomena of the tailings dams collapse.Keywords: Flow failure, liquefaction, modeling, piping, porewater pressure.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24511060 Estimating the Life-Distribution Parameters of Weibull-Life PV Systems Utilizing Non-Parametric Analysis
Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan
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In this paper, a model is proposed to determine the life distribution parameters of the useful life region for the PV system utilizing a combination of non-parametric and linear regression analysis for the failure data of these systems. Results showed that this method is dependable for analyzing failure time data for such reliable systems when the data is scarce.Keywords: Masking, Bathtub model, reliability, non-parametric analysis, useful life.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18351059 Performance Evaluation of the OCDM/WDM Technique for Optical Packet Switches
Authors: V. Eramo, L. Piazzo, M. Listanti, A. Germoni, A Cianfrani
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The performance of the Optical Code Division Multiplexing/ Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM/OCDM) technique for Optical Packet Switch is investigated. The impact on the performance of the impairment due to both Multiple Access Interference and Beat noise is studied. The Packet Loss Probability due to output packet contentions is evaluated as a function of the main switch and traffic parameters when Gold coherent optical codes are adopted. The Packet Loss Probability of the OCDM/WDM switch can reach 10-9 when M=16 wavelengths, Gold code of length L=511 and only 24 wavelength converters are used in the switch.
Keywords: Optical code division multiplexing, bufferless optical packet switch, performance evaluation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14361058 A New Algorithm for Enhanced Robustness of Copyright Mark
Authors: Harsh Vikram Singh, S. P. Singh, Anand Mohan
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This paper discusses a new heavy tailed distribution based data hiding into discrete cosine transform (DCT) coefficients of image, which provides statistical security as well as robustness against steganalysis attacks. Unlike other data hiding algorithms, the proposed technique does not introduce much effect in the stegoimage-s DCT coefficient probability plots, thus making the presence of hidden data statistically undetectable. In addition the proposed method does not compromise on hiding capacity. When compared to the generic block DCT based data-hiding scheme, our method found more robust against a variety of image manipulating attacks such as filtering, blurring, JPEG compression etc.
Keywords: Information Security, Robust Steganography, Steganalysis, Pareto Probability Distribution function.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17891057 The Performance of Predictive Classification Using Empirical Bayes
Authors: N. Deetae, S. Sukparungsee, Y. Areepong, K. Jampachaisri
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This research is aimed to compare the percentages of correct classification of Empirical Bayes method (EB) to Classical method when data are constructed as near normal, short-tailed and long-tailed symmetric, short-tailed and long-tailed asymmetric. The study is performed using conjugate prior, normal distribution with known mean and unknown variance. The estimated hyper-parameters obtained from EB method are replaced in the posterior predictive probability and used to predict new observations. Data are generated, consisting of training set and test set with the sample sizes 100, 200 and 500 for the binary classification. The results showed that EB method exhibited an improved performance over Classical method in all situations under study.
Keywords: Classification, Empirical Bayes, Posterior predictive probability.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15861056 Resistance and Sub-Resistances of RC Beams Subjected to Multiple Failure Modes
Authors: F. Sangiorgio, J. Silfwerbrand, G. Mancini
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Geometric and mechanical properties all influence the resistance of RC structures and may, in certain combination of property values, increase the risk of a brittle failure of the whole system. This paper presents a statistical and probabilistic investigation on the resistance of RC beams designed according to Eurocodes 2 and 8, and subjected to multiple failure modes, under both the natural variation of material properties and the uncertainty associated with cross-section and transverse reinforcement geometry. A full probabilistic model based on JCSS Probabilistic Model Code is derived. Different beams are studied through material nonlinear analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. The resistance model is consistent with Eurocode 2. Both a multivariate statistical evaluation and the data clustering analysis of outcomes are then performed. Results show that the ultimate load behaviour of RC beams subjected to flexural and shear failure modes seems to be mainly influenced by the combination of the mechanical properties of both longitudinal reinforcement and stirrups, and the tensile strength of concrete, of which the latter appears to affect the overall response of the system in a nonlinear way. The model uncertainty of the resistance model used in the analysis plays undoubtedly an important role in interpreting results.
Keywords: Modelling, Monte Carlo Simulations, Probabilistic Models, Data Clustering, Reinforced Concrete Members, Structural Design.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21021055 Proteins Length and their Phenotypic Potential
Authors: Tom Snir, Eitan Rubin
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Mendelian Disease Genes represent a collection of single points of failure for the various systems they constitute. Such genes have been shown, on average, to encode longer proteins than 'non-disease' proteins. Existing models suggest that this results from the increased likeli-hood of longer genes undergoing mutations. Here, we show that in saturated mutagenesis experiments performed on model organisms, where the likelihood of each gene mutating is one, a similar relationship between length and the probability of a gene being lethal was observed. We thus suggest an extended model demonstrating that the likelihood of a mutated gene to produce a severe phenotype is length-dependent. Using the occurrence of conserved domains, we bring evidence that this dependency results from a correlation between protein length and the number of functions it performs. We propose that protein length thus serves as a proxy for protein cardinality in different networks required for the organism's survival and well-being. We use this example to argue that the collection of Mendelian Disease Genes can, and should, be used to study the rules governing systems vulnerability in living organisms.
Keywords: Systems Biology, Protein Length
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17851054 On Simple Confidence Intervals for the Normal Mean with Known Coefficient of Variation
Authors: Suparat Niwitpong, Sa-aat Niwitpong
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In this paper we proposed the new confidence interval for the normal population mean with known coefficient of variation. In practice, this situation occurs normally in environment and agriculture sciences where we know the standard deviation is proportional to the mean. As a result, the coefficient of variation of is known. We propose the new confidence interval based on the recent work of Khan [3] and this new confidence interval will compare with our previous work, see, e.g. Niwitpong [5]. We derive analytic expressions for the coverage probability and the expected length of each confidence interval. A numerical method will be used to assess the performance of these intervals based on their expected lengths.
Keywords: confidence interval, coverage probability, expected length, known coefficient of variation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17491053 Improvement of the Reliability of the Industrial Electric Networks
Authors: M. Bouguerra, I. Habi
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The continuity in the electric supply of the electric installations is becoming one of the main requirements of the electric supply network (generation, transmission, and distribution of the electric energy). The achievement of this requirement depends from one side on the structure of the electric network and on the other side on the avaibility of the reserve source provided to maintain the supply in case of failure of the principal one. The avaibility of supply does not only depends on the reliability parameters of the both sources (principal and reserve) but it also depends on the reliability of the circuit breaker which plays the role of interlocking the reserve source in case of failure of the principal one. In addition, the principal source being under operation, its control can be ideal and sure, however, for the reserve source being in stop, a preventive maintenances which proceed on time intervals (periodicity) and for well defined lengths of time are envisaged, so that this source will always available in case of the principal source failure. The choice of the periodicity of preventive maintenance of the source of reserve influences directly the reliability of the electric feeder system In this work and on the basis of the semi- markovian's processes, the influence of the time of interlocking the reserve source upon the reliability of an industrial electric network is studied and is given the optimal time of interlocking the reserve source in case of failure the principal one, also the influence of the periodicity of the preventive maintenance of the source of reserve is studied and is given the optimal periodicity.Keywords: Semi-Markovians processes, reliability, optimization, industrial electric network.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12631052 SFCL Location Selection Considering Reliability Indices
Authors: Wook-Won Kim, Sung-Yul Kim, Jin-O Kim
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The fault current levels through the electric devices have a significant impact on failure probability. New fault current results in exceeding the rated capacity of circuit breaker and switching equipments and changes operation characteristic of overcurrent relay. In order to solve these problems, SFCL (Superconducting Fault Current Limiter) has rising as one of new alternatives so as to improve these problems. A fault current reduction differs depending on installed location. Therefore, a location of SFCL is very important. Also, SFCL decreases the fault current, and it prevents surrounding protective devices to be exposed to fault current, it then will bring a change of reliability. In this paper, we propose method which determines the optimal location when SFCL is installed in power system. In addition, the reliability about the power system which SFCL was installed is evaluated. The efficiency and effectiveness of this method are also shown by numerical examples and the reliability indices are evaluated in this study at each load points. These results show a reliability change of a system when SFCL was installed.Keywords: Superconducting Fault Current Limiter, OptimalLocation, Reliability
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16711051 Steering Velocity Bounded Mobile Robots in Environments with Partially Known Obstacles
Authors: Reza Hossseynie, Amir Jafari
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This paper presents a method for steering velocity bounded mobile robots in environments with partially known stationary obstacles. The exact location of obstacles is unknown and only a probability distribution associated with the location of the obstacles is known. Kinematic model of a 2-wheeled differential drive robot is used as the model of mobile robot. The presented control strategy uses the Artificial Potential Field (APF) method for devising a desired direction of movement for the robot at each instant of time while the Constrained Directions Control (CDC) uses the generated direction to produce the control signals required for steering the robot. The location of each obstacle is considered to be the mean value of the 2D probability distribution and similarly, the magnitude of the electric charge in the APF is set as the trace of covariance matrix of the location probability distribution. The method not only captures the challenges of planning the path (i.e. probabilistic nature of the location of unknown obstacles), but it also addresses the output saturation which is considered to be an important issue from the control perspective. Moreover, velocity of the robot can be controlled during the steering. For example, the velocity of robot can be reduced in close vicinity of obstacles and target to ensure safety. Finally, the control strategy is simulated for different scenarios to show how the method can be put into practice.Keywords: Steering, obstacle avoidance, mobile robots, constrained directions control, artificial potential field.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8981050 Assessment of Landslide Volume for Alishan Highway Based On Database of Rainfall-Induced Slope Failure
Authors: Yun-Yao Chi, Ya-Fen Lee
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In this paper, a study of slope failures along the Alishan Highway is carried out. An innovative empirical model is developed based on 15-year records of rainfall-induced slope failures. The statistical models are intended for assessing the volume of landslide for slope failure along the Alishan Highway in the future. The rainfall data considered in the proposed models include the effective cumulative rainfall and the critical rainfall intensity. The effective cumulative rainfall is defined at the point when the curve of cumulative rainfall goes from steep to flat. Then, the rainfall thresholds of landslide are established for assessing the volume of landslide and issuing warning and/or closure for the Alishan Highway during a future extreme rainfall. Slope failures during Typhoon Saola in 2012 demonstrate that the new empirical model is effective and applicable to other cases with similar rainfall conditions.
Keywords: Slope failure, landslide, volume, model, rainfall thresholds.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17621049 Monotonicity of Dependence Concepts from Independent Random Vector into Dependent Random Vector
Authors: Guangpu Chen
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When the failure function is monotone, some monotonic reliability methods are used to gratefully simplify and facilitate the reliability computations. However, these methods often work in a transformed iso-probabilistic space. To this end, a monotonic simulator or transformation is needed in order that the transformed failure function is still monotone. This note proves at first that the output distribution of failure function is invariant under the transformation. And then it presents some conditions under which the transformed function is still monotone in the newly obtained space. These concern the copulas and the dependence concepts. In many engineering applications, the Gaussian copulas are often used to approximate the real word copulas while the available information on the random variables is limited to the set of marginal distributions and the covariances. So this note catches an importance on the conditional monotonicity of the often used transformation from an independent random vector into a dependent random vector with Gaussian copulas.
Keywords: Monotonic, Rosenblatt, Nataf transformation, dependence concepts, completely positive matrices, Gaussiancopulas
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12031048 A Bayesian Network Reliability Modeling for FlexRay Systems
Authors: Kuen-Long Leu, Yung-Yuan Chen, Chin-Long Wey, Jwu-E Chen, Chung-Hsien Hsu
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The increasing importance of FlexRay systems in automotive domain inspires unceasingly relative researches. One primary issue among researches is to verify the reliability of FlexRay systems either from protocol aspect or from system design aspect. However, research rarely discusses the effect of network topology on the system reliability. In this paper, we will illustrate how to model the reliability of FlexRay systems with various network topologies by a well-known probabilistic reasoning technology, Bayesian Network. In this illustration, we especially investigate the effectiveness of error containment built in star topology and fault-tolerant midpoint synchronization algorithm adopted in FlexRay communication protocol. Through a FlexRay steer-by-wire case study, the influence of different topologies on the failure probability of the FlexRay steerby- wire system is demonstrated. The notable value of this research is to show that the Bayesian Network inference is a powerful and feasible method for the reliability assessment of FlexRay systems.Keywords: Bayesian Network, FlexRay, fault tolerance, network topology, reliability.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 20181047 Material Failure Process Simulation by Improve Finite Elements with Embedded Discontinuities
Authors: Juárez-Luna Gelacio, Ayala Gustavo, Retama-Velasco Jaime
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This paper shows the advantages of the material failure process simulation by improve finite elements with embedded discontinuities, using a new definition of traction vector, dependent on the discontinuity length and the angle. Particularly, two families of this kind of elements are compared: kinematically optimal symmetric and statically and kinematically optimal non-symmetric. The constitutive model to describe the behavior of the material in the symmetric formulation is a traction-displacement jump relationship equipped with softening after reaching the failure surface.
To show the validity of this symmetric formulation, representative numerical examples illustrating the performance of the proposed formulation are presented. It is shown that the non-symmetric family may over or underestimate the energy required to create a discontinuity, as this effect is related with the total length of the discontinuity, fact that is not noticed when the discontinuity path is a straight line.
Keywords: Variational formulation, strong discontinuity, embedded discontinuities, strain localization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17601046 Mecano-Reliability Approach Applied to a Water Storage Tank Placed on Ground
Authors: Amar Aliche, Hocine Hammoum, Karima Bouzelha, Arezki Ben Abderrahmane
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Traditionally, the dimensioning of storage tanks is conducted with a deterministic approach based on partial coefficients of safety. These coefficients are applied to take into account the uncertainties related to hazards on properties of materials used and applied loads. However, the use of these safety factors in the design process does not assure an optimal and reliable solution and can sometimes lead to a lack of robustness of the structure. The reliability theory based on a probabilistic formulation of constructions safety can respond in an adapted manner. It allows constructing a modelling in which uncertain data are represented by random variables, and therefore allows a better appreciation of safety margins with confidence indicators. The work presented in this paper consists of a mecano-reliability analysis of a concrete storage tank placed on ground. The classical method of Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the failure probability of concrete tank by considering the seismic acceleration as random variable.Keywords: Reliability approach, storage tanks, Monte Carlo simulation, seismic acceleration.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14781045 Towards Modeling for Crashes A Low-Cost Adaptive Methodology for Karachi
Authors: Mohammad Ahmed Rehmatullah
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The aim of this paper is to discuss a low-cost methodology that can predict traffic flow conflicts and quantitatively rank crash expectancies (based on relative probability) for various traffic facilities. This paper focuses on the application of statistical distributions to model traffic flow and Monte Carlo techniques to simulate traffic and discusses how to create a tool in order to predict the possibility of a traffic crash. A low-cost data collection methodology has been discussed for the heterogeneous traffic flow that exists and a GIS platform has been proposed to thematically represent traffic flow from simulations and the probability of a crash. Furthermore, discussions have been made to reflect the dynamism of the model in reference to its adaptability, adequacy, economy, and efficiency to ensure adoption.
Keywords: Heterogeneous traffic data collection, Monte CarloSimulation, Traffic Flow Modeling, GIS.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14221044 Developing of Fragility Curve for Two-Span Simply Supported Concrete Bridge in Near-Fault Area
Authors: S. Shirazian, M.R. Ghayamghamian, G.R. Nouri
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Bridges are one of the main components of transportation networks. They should be functional before and after earthquake for emergency services. Therefore we need to assess seismic performance of bridges under different seismic loadings. Fragility curve is one of the popular tools in seismic evaluations. The fragility curves are conditional probability statements, which give the probability of a bridge reaching or exceeding a particular damage level for a given intensity level. In this study, the seismic performance of a two-span simply supported concrete bridge is assessed. Due to usual lack of empirical data, the analytical fragility curve was developed by results of the dynamic analysis of bridge subjected to the different time histories in near-fault area.Keywords: Fragility curve, Seismic behavior, Time historyanalysis, Transportation Network.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 27821043 Democratic Political Socialization of the 5th and 6th Graders under the Authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok
Authors: Mathinee Khongsatid, Phusit Phukamchanoad, Sakapas Sangchai
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This research aims to study the democratic political socialization of the 5th and 6th Graders under the Authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok by using stratified sampling for probability sampling and using purposive sampling for non-probability sampling to collect data toward the distribution of questionnaires to 300 respondents. This covers all of the schools under the authority of Dusit District Office. The researcher analyzed the data by using descriptive statistics which include arithmetic mean and standard deviation. The result shows that 5th and 6th graders under the authority of Dusit District Office, Bangkok, have displayed some characteristics following democratic political socialization both inside and outside classroom as well as outside school. However, the democratic political socialization in classroom through grouping and class participation is much more emphasized.
Keywords: Democratic, Political Socialization
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 16551042 Contingency Screening Using Risk Factor Considering Transmission Line Outage
Authors: M. Marsadek, A. Mohamed
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Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed. In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time. To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor. The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.Keywords: Line overload, low voltage, probability, risk factor, severity.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12161041 Remarks Regarding Queuing Model and Packet Loss Probability for the Traffic with Self-Similar Characteristics
Authors: Mihails Kulikovs, Ernests Petersons
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Network management techniques have long been of interest to the networking research community. The queue size plays a critical role for the network performance. The adequate size of the queue maintains Quality of Service (QoS) requirements within limited network capacity for as many users as possible. The appropriate estimation of the queuing model parameters is crucial for both initial size estimation and during the process of resource allocation. The accurate resource allocation model for the management system increases the network utilization. The present paper demonstrates the results of empirical observation of memory allocation for packet-based services.Keywords: Queuing System, Packet Loss Probability, Measurement-Based Admission Control (MBAC), Performanceevaluation, Quality of Service (QoS).
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17611040 Channels Splitting Strategy for Optical Local Area Networks of Passive Star Topology
Authors: Peristera Baziana
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In this paper, we present a network configuration for a WDM LANs of passive star topology that assume that the set of data WDM channels is split into two separate sets of channels, with different access rights over them. Especially, a synchronous transmission WDMA access algorithm is adopted in order to increase the probability of successful transmission over the data channels and consequently to reduce the probability of data packets transmission cancellation in order to avoid the data channels collisions. Thus, a control pre-transmission access scheme is followed over a separate control channel. An analytical Markovian model is studied and the average throughput is mathematically derived. The performance is studied for several numbers of data channels and various values of control phase duration.Keywords: Access algorithm, channels division, collisions avoidance, wavelength division multiplexing.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10031039 Discrete Time Optimal Solution for the Connection Admission Control Problem
Authors: C. Bruni, F. Delli Priscoli, G. Koch, I. Marchetti
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The Connection Admission Control (CAC) problem is formulated in this paper as a discrete time optimal control problem. The control variables account for the acceptance/ rejection of new connections and forced dropping of in-progress connections. These variables are constrained to meet suitable conditions which account for the QoS requirements (Link Availability, Blocking Probability, Dropping Probability). The performance index evaluates the total throughput. At each discrete time, the problem is solved as an integer-valued linear programming one. The proposed procedure was successfully tested against suitably simulated data.
Keywords: Connection Admission Control, Optimal Control, Integer valued Linear Programming, Quality of Service Requirements, Robust Control.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1252