Search results for: Short term aging

Authors: Reza Dinarvand, Mahdi Sadeghian, Somaye Sadeghian

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Prediction of the ultimate bearing capacity of piles (Qu) is one of the basic issues in geotechnical engineering. So far, several methods have been used to estimate Qu, including the recently developed artificial intelligence methods. In recent years, optimization algorithms have been used to minimize artificial network errors, such as colony algorithms, genetic algorithms, imperialist competitive algorithms, and so on. In the present research, artificial neural networks based on colonial competition algorithm (ANN-ICA) were used, and their results were compared with other methods. The results of laboratory tests of short piles in clayey soils with parameters such as pile diameter, pile buried length, eccentricity of load and undrained shear resistance of soil were used for modeling and evaluation. The results showed that ICA-based artificial neural networks predicted lateral bearing capacity of short piles with a correlation coefficient of 0.9865 for training data and 0.975 for test data. Furthermore, the results of the model indicated the superiority of ICA-based artificial neural networks compared to back-propagation artificial neural networks as well as the Broms and Hansen methods.

Keywords: Lateral bearing capacity, short pile, clayey soil, artificial neural network, Imperialist competition algorithm.

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Authors: Hrachuhi Galstyan, Lucian Sfîcă, Pavel Ichim

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The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal and spatial variability of thermal conditions in the Republic of Armenia. The paper describes annual fluctuations in air temperature. Research has been focused on case study region of Armenia and surrounding areas, where long–term measurements and observations of weather conditions have been performed within the National Meteorological Service of Armenia and its surrounding areas. The study contains yearly air temperature data recorded between 1961- 2012. Mann-Kendal test and the autocorrelation function were applied to detect the change trend of annual mean temperature, as well as other parametric and non-parametric tests searching to find the presence of some breaks in the long term evolution of temperature. The analysis of all records reveals a tendency mostly towards warmer years, with increased temperatures especially in valleys and inner basins. The maximum temperature increase is up to 1,5°C. Negative results have not been observed in Armenia. The patterns of temperature change have been observed since the 1990’s over much of the Armenian territory. The climate in Armenia was influenced by global change in the last 2 decades, as results from the methods employed within the study.

Keywords: Air temperature, long-term variability, trend, climate change.

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Authors: Nicolas Zufferey

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Ant algorithms are well-known metaheuristics which have been widely used since two decades. In most of the literature, an ant is a constructive heuristic able to build a solution from scratch. However, other types of ant algorithms have recently emerged: the discussion is thus not limited by the common framework of the constructive ant algorithms. Generally, at each generation of an ant algorithm, each ant builds a solution step by step by adding an element to it. Each choice is based on the greedy force (also called the visibility, the short term profit or the heuristic information) and the trail system (central memory which collects historical information of the search process). Usually, all the ants of the population have the same characteristics and behaviors. In contrast in this paper, a new type of ant metaheuristic is proposed, namely SMART (for Solution Methods with Ants Running by Types). It relies on the use of different population of ants, where each population has its own personality.

Keywords: Optimization, Metaheuristics, Ant Algorithms, Evolutionary Procedures, Population-Based Methods.

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Authors: Rajesh Kumar, Roopali Dogra, Puneet Aggarwal

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In the era of technological advancement, use of computer technology has become inevitable. Hence it has become the need of the hour to integrate software methods in engineering curriculum as a part to boost pedagogy techniques. Simulations software is a great help to graduates of disciplines such as electrical engineering. Since electrical engineering deals with high voltages and heavy instruments, extra care must be taken while operating with them. The viable solution would be to have appropriate control. The appropriate control could be well designed if engineers have knowledge of kind of waveforms associated with the system. Though these waveforms can be plotted manually, but it consumes a lot of time. Hence aid of simulation helps to understand steady state of system and resulting in better performance. In this paper computer, aided teaching of transformer is carried out using MATLAB/Simulink. The test carried out on a transformer includes open circuit test and short circuit respectively. The respective parameters of transformer are then calculated using the values obtained from open circuit and short circuit test respectively using Simulink.

Keywords: Computer aided teaching, transformer, open circuit test, short circuit test, Simulink.

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Authors: Paul Lajbcygier, Seng Lee

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Co-integration models the long-term, equilibrium relationship of two or more related financial variables. Even if cointegration is found, in the short run, there may be deviations from the long run equilibrium relationship. The aim of this work is to forecast these deviations using neural networks and create a trading strategy based on them. A case study is used: co-integration residuals from Australian Bank Bill futures are forecast and traded using various exogenous input variables combined with neural networks. The choice of the optimal exogenous input variables chosen for each neural network, undertaken in previous work [1], is validated by comparing the forecasts and corresponding profitability of each, using a trading strategy.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, co-integration, forecasting, trading rule.

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Authors: M. Karimpour, L. Hitihamillage, N. Elkhoury, S. Moridpour, R. Hesami

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Rail transport authorities around the world have been facing a significant challenge when predicting rail infrastructure maintenance work for a long period of time. Generally, maintenance monitoring and prediction is conducted manually. With the restrictions in economy, the rail transport authorities are in pursuit of improved modern methods, which can provide precise prediction of rail maintenance time and location. The expectation from such a method is to develop models to minimize the human error that is strongly related to manual prediction. Such models will help them in understanding how the track degradation occurs overtime under the change in different conditions (e.g. rail load, rail type, rail profile). They need a well-structured technique to identify the precise time that rail tracks fail in order to minimize the maintenance cost/time and secure the vehicles. The rail track characteristics that have been collected over the years will be used in developing rail track degradation prediction models. Since these data have been collected in large volumes and the data collection is done both electronically and manually, it is possible to have some errors. Sometimes these errors make it impossible to use them in prediction model development. This is one of the major drawbacks in rail track degradation prediction. An accurate model can play a key role in the estimation of the long-term behavior of rail tracks. Accurate models increase the track safety and decrease the cost of maintenance in long term. In this research, a short review of rail track degradation prediction models has been discussed before estimating rail track degradation for the curve sections of Melbourne tram track system using Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model.

Keywords: ANFIS, MGT, Prediction modeling, rail track degradation.

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Authors: R. K. Dubey

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Bianchi type cosmological models have been studied on the basis of Lyra’s geometry. Exact solution has been obtained by considering a time dependent displacement field for constant deceleration parameter and varying cosmological term of the universe. The physical behavior of the different models has been examined for different cases.

Keywords: Bianchi type-I cosmological model, variable gravitational coupling (G) and Cosmological Constant term (β).

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Authors: Xiaowei Zhang, Min Xu, Saeid Habibi, Fengjun Yan, Ryan Ahmed

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Recently, Electric Vehicles (EVs) have received extensive consideration since they offer a more sustainable and greener transportation alternative compared to fossil-fuel propelled vehicles. Lithium-Ion (Li-ion) batteries are increasingly being deployed in EVs because of their high energy density, high cell-level voltage, and low rate of self-discharge. Since Li-ion batteries represent the most expensive component in the EV powertrain, accurate monitoring and control strategies must be executed to ensure their prolonged lifespan. The Battery Management System (BMS) has to accurately estimate parameters such as the battery State-of-Charge (SOC), State-of-Health (SOH), and Remaining Useful Life (RUL). In order for the BMS to estimate these parameters, an accurate and control-oriented battery model has to work collaboratively with a robust state and parameter estimation strategy. Since battery physical parameters, such as the internal resistance and diffusion coefficient change depending on the battery state-of-life (SOL), the BMS has to be adaptive to accommodate for this change. In this paper, an extensive battery aging study has been conducted over 12-months period on 5.4 Ah, 3.7 V Lithium polymer cells. Instead of using fixed charging/discharging aging cycles at fixed C-rate, a set of real-world driving scenarios have been used to age the cells. The test has been interrupted every 5% capacity degradation by a set of reference performance tests to assess the battery degradation and track model parameters. As battery ages, the combined model parameters are optimized and tracked in an offline mode over the entire batteries lifespan. Based on the optimized model, a state and parameter estimation strategy based on the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and the relatively new Smooth Variable Structure Filter (SVSF) have been applied to estimate the SOC at various states of life.

Keywords: Lithium-Ion batteries, genetic algorithm optimization, battery aging test, and parameter identification.

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Authors: Valeri Arghutashvili, Mari Gogochuri

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Tourism industry development is one of the key priorities in Georgia, as it has positive influence on economic activities. Its contribution is very important for the different regions, as well as for the national economy. Benefits of the tourism industry include new jobs, service development, and increasing tax revenues, etc. The main aim of this research is to review and analyze the potential of the Georgian tourism industry with its long-term strategy and current challenges. To plan activities in a long-term development, it is required to evaluate several factors on the regional and on the national level. Factors include activities, transportation, services, lodging facilities, infrastructure and institutions. The major research contributions are practical estimates about regional tourism development which plays an important role in the integration process with global markets.

Keywords: Regional tourism, tourism industry, tourism in Georgia, tourism benefits.

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Authors: Tomohiro Ando, Satoshi Yamashita

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The objective of this study is to propose a statistical modeling method which enables simultaneous term structure estimation of the risk-free interest rate, hazard and loss given default, incorporating the characteristics of the bond issuing company such as credit rating and financial information. A reduced form model is used for this purpose. Statistical techniques such as spline estimation and Bayesian information criterion are employed for parameter estimation and model selection. An empirical analysis is conducted using the information on the Japanese bond market data. Results of the empirical analysis confirm the usefulness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Empirical Bayes, Hazard term structure, Loss given default.

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Authors: Sven Rebhan, Nils Einecke, Julian Eggert

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In this paper we propose a method for vision systems to consistently represent functional dependencies between different visual routines along with relational short- and long-term knowledge about the world. Here the visual routines are bound to visual properties of objects stored in the memory of the system. Furthermore, the functional dependencies between the visual routines are seen as a graph also belonging to the object-s structure. This graph is parsed in the course of acquiring a visual property of an object to automatically resolve the dependencies of the bound visual routines. Using this representation, the system is able to dynamically rearrange the processing order while keeping its functionality. Additionally, the system is able to estimate the overall computational costs of a certain action. We will also show that the system can efficiently use that structure to incorporate already acquired knowledge and thus reduce the computational demand.

Keywords: Adaptive systems, Knowledge representation, Machinevision, Systems engineering

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Authors: T. Arudchelvam, W. W. E. N. Fernando

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Mobile phone has become as an essential thing in our life. Therefore, security is the most important thing to be considered in mobile communication. Short message service is the cheapest way of communication via the mobile phones. Therefore, security is very important in the short message service as well. This paper presents a method to maintain the security at user level. Different types of encryption methods are used to implement the user level security in mobile phones. Caesar cipher, Rail Fence, Vigenere cipher and RSA are used as encryption methods in this work. Caesar cipher and the Rail Fence methods are enhanced and implemented. The beauty in this work is that the user can select the encryption method and the key. Therefore, by changing the encryption method and the key time to time, the user can ensure the security of messages. By this work, while users can safely send/receive messages, they can save their information from unauthorised and unwanted people in their own mobile phone as well.

Keywords: SMS, user level security, encryption, mobile communication.

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Authors: Zeljko Panian

Abstract:

The term Enterprise 2.0 (E2.0) describes a collection of organizational and IT practices that help organizations establish flexible work models, visible knowledge-sharing practices, and higher levels of community participation. E2.0 parallels and builds on another term commonly being used in the industry – Web 2.0. E2.0 represents also new packaging for strategic collaboration and Knowledge Management (KM). Organizations rely on collaboration and KM initiatives to attain innovation, growth, productivity, and performance goals.

Keywords: Web 2.0, Enterprise 2.0, knowledge management, knowledge planner, collaboration.

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Authors: Davide Fuscà, Kanan Rahimli, Roberto Leuzzi

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Prevent abuse and illegal activities in a given area of the sea is a very difficult and expensive task. Artificial intelligence offers the possibility to implement new methods to identify the vessel class type from the kinematic features of the vessel itself. The task strictly depends on the quality of the data. This paper explores the application of a deep Long Short-Term Memory model by using AIS flow only with a relatively low quality. The proposed model reaches high accuracy on detecting nine vessel classes representing the most common vessel types in the Ionian-Adriatic Sea. The model has been applied during the Adriatic-Ionian trial period of the international EU ANDROMEDA H2020 project to identify vessels performing behaviours far from the expected one, depending on the declared type.

Keywords: maritime surveillance, artificial intelligence, behaviour analysis, LSTM

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Authors: Jun Hee Lee, Young Kyu Kim, Seong Jae Hong, Chamroeun Chhorn, Seung Woo Lee

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Roller-compacted concrete pavement (RCCP), an environmental friendly pavement of which load carry capacity benefitted from both hydration and aggregate interlock from roller compacting, demonstrated a superb structural performance for a relatively small amount of water and cement content. Even though an excellent structural performance can be secured, it is required to investigate roller-compacted concrete (RCC) under environmental loading and its long-term durability under critical conditions. In order to secure long-term durability, an appropriate internal air-void structure is required for this concrete. In this study, a method for improving the long-term durability of RCCP is suggested by analyzing the internal air-void structure and corresponding durability of RCC. The method of improving the long-term durability involves measurements of air content, air voids, and air-spacing factors in RCC that experiences changes in terms of type of air-entraining agent and its usage amount. This test is conducted according to the testing criteria in ASTM C 457, 672, and KS F 2456. It was found that the freezing-thawing and scaling resistances of RCC without any chemical admixture was quite low. Interestingly, an improvement of freezing-thawing and scaling resistances was observed for RCC with appropriate the air entraining (AE) agent content; Relative dynamic elastic modulus was found to be more than 80% for those mixtures. In RCC with AE agent mixtures, large amount of air was distributed within a range of 2% to 3%, and an air void spacing factor ranging between 200 and 300 μm (close to 250 μm, recommended by PCA) was secured. The long-term durability of RCC has a direct relationship with air-void spacing factor, and thus it can only be secured by ensuring the air void spacing factor through the inclusion of the AE in the mixture.

Keywords: RCCP, durability, air spacing factor, surface scaling resistance test, freezing and thawing resistance test.

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Authors: Md. Royhanur Islam, Thomas Cansse, Md. Sahidul Islam, Atiqur Rahman Sunny

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The geographical location of Bangladesh makes it one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Climate-induced phenomena mainly affect the south-central region of Bangladesh (Laxmipur district) where they have begun to occur more frequently. The aim of the study was to identify the hydro-climatic factors that lead to weather-related disasters in the coastal areas and analyse the consequences of these factors on coastal livelihoods, with possible adaptation options using participatory rural appraisal (PRA) tools. The present study showed several disasters such as land erosion, depressions and cyclones, coastal flooding, storm surge, and precipitation. The frequency of these disasters is of a noticeable rate. Surveys have also discovered that land erosion is ongoing. Tidal water is being introduced directly into the mainland, and as a result of the salt intrusion, production capacity is declining. The coastal belt is an important area for fishing activities, but due to changed fishing times and a lack of Alternative Income Generating Activities (AIGAs), people have been forced to search for alternative livelihood options by taking both short-term and long-term adaptation options. Therefore, in order to increase awareness and minimize the losses, vulnerable communities must be fully incorporated into disaster response strategies. The government as well as national and international donor organizations should come forward and resolve the present situation of these vulnerable groups since otherwise, they will have to endure endless and miserable suffering due to the effects of climate change ahead in their lives.

Keywords: Adaptation, community, fishery development, livelihood.

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Authors: U. Achutha Kini, S. S. Sharma, K. Jagannath, P. R. Prabhu, Gowri Shankar M. C.

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Aluminium matrix composites with alumina reinforcements give superior mechanical & physical properties. Their applications in several fields like automobile, aerospace, defense, sports, electronics, bio-medical and other industrial purposes are becoming essential for the last several decades. In the present work, fabrication of hybrid composite was done by Stir casting technique using Al 6061 as a matrix with alumina and silicon carbide (SiC) as reinforcement materials. The weight percentage of alumina is varied from 2 to 4% and the silicon carbide weight percentage is maintained constant at 2%. Hardness and wear tests are performed in the as cast and heat treated conditions. Age hardening treatment was performed on the specimen with solutionizing at 550°C, aging at two temperatures (150 and 200°C) for different time durations. Hardness distribution curves are drawn and peak hardness values are recorded. Hardness increase was very sensitive with respect to the decrease in aging temperature. There was an improvement in wear resistance of the peak aged material when aged at lower temperature. Also increase in weight percent of alumina, increases wear resistance at lower temperature but opposite behavior was seen when aged at higher temperature.

Keywords: Hybrid composite, hardness test, wear test, heat treatment, pin on disc wear testing machine.

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Authors: R. F. B. Gonçalves, E. N. Iwama, J. A. F. F. Rocco, K. Iha

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Propellants based on Hydroxyl Terminated Polybutadiene/Ammonium Perchlorate (HTPB/AP) are the most commonly used in most of the rocket engines used by the Brazilian Armed Forces. This work aimed at the possibility of extending its useful life (currently in 10 years) by performing kinetic-chemical analyzes of its energetic material via Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and also performing computer simulation of aging process using the software Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS). Thermal analysis via DSC was performed in triplicates and in three heating ratios (5 ºC, 10 ºC, and 15 ºC) of rocket motor with 11 years shelf-life, using the Arrhenius equation to obtain its activation energy, using Ozawa and Kissinger kinetic methods, allowing comparison with manufacturing period data (standard motor). In addition, the kinetic parameters of internal pressure of the combustion chamber in 08 rocket engines with 11 years of shelf-life were also acquired, for comparison purposes with the engine start-up data.

Keywords: Shelf-life, thermal analysis, Ozawa method, Kissinger method, LAMMPS software, thrust.

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Authors: Mohsen Ebrahimi

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In this paper, Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) is introduced and its advantages over ordinary steam injection is demonstrated. A simple simulation model is built and three scenarios of natural production, ordinary steam injection, and SAGD are compared in terms of their cumulative oil production and cumulative oil steam ratio. The results show that SAGD can significantly enhance oil production in quite a short period of time. However, since the distance between injection and production wells is short, the oil to steam ratio decreases gradually through time.

Keywords: Thermal recovery, Steam injection, SAGD, Enhanced oil recovery

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Authors: Eman S. El-Din, Hesham M. El-Badawy, Salwa H. Elramly

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Whereas cellular wireless communication systems are subject to short-and long-term fading. The effect of wireless channel has largely been ignored in most of the teletraffic assessment researches. In this paper, a mathematical teletraffic model is proposed to estimate blocking and forced termination probabilities of cellular wireless networks as a result of teletraffic behavior as well as the outage of the propagation channel. To evaluate the proposed teletraffic model, gamma inter-arrival and general service time distributions have been considered based on wireless channel fading effect. The performance is evaluated and compared with the classical model. The proposed model is dedicated and investigated in different operational conditions. These conditions will consider not only the arrival rate process, but also, the different faded channels models.

Keywords: Cellular wireless networks, outage probability, traffic model, gamma inter-arrival distribution.

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Authors: Lee Boudreau, Ash Kumar Khaitu, Laura A. S. MacDonald

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In April 2015, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck Nepal, killing, injuring, and displacing thousands of people. The earthquake also damaged water and sanitation service networks, leading to a high risk of diarrheal disease and the associated negative health impacts. In response to the disaster, the Environment and Public Health Organization (ENPHO), a Kathmandu-based non-governmental organization, worked with the Centre for Affordable Water and Sanitation Technology (CAWST), a Canadian education, training and consulting organization, to develop two training programs to educate volunteers on water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) needs. The first training program was intended for acute response, with the second focusing on longer term recovery. A key focus was to equip the volunteers with the knowledge and skills to formulate useful WASH advice in the unanticipated circumstances they would encounter when working in affected areas. Within the first two weeks of the disaster, a two-day acute response training was developed, which focused on enabling volunteers to educate those affected by the disaster about local WASH issues, their link to health, and their increased importance immediately following emergency situations. Between March and October 2015, a total of 19 training events took place, with over 470 volunteers trained. The trained volunteers distributed hygiene kits and liquid chlorine for household water treatment. They also facilitated health messaging and WASH awareness activities in affected communities. A three-day recovery phase training was also developed and has been delivered to volunteers in Nepal since October 2015. This training focused on WASH issues during the recovery and reconstruction phases. The interventions and recommendations in the recovery phase training focus on long-term WASH solutions, and so form a link between emergency relief strategies and long-term development goals. ENPHO has trained 226 volunteers during the recovery phase, with training ongoing as of April 2016. In the aftermath of the earthquake, ENPHO found that its existing pool of volunteers were more than willing to help those in their communities who were more in need. By training these and new volunteers, ENPHO was able to reach many more communities in the immediate aftermath of the disaster; together they reached 11 of the 14 earthquake-affected districts. The collaboration between ENPHO and CAWST in developing the training materials was a highly collaborative and iterative process, which enabled the training materials to be developed within a short response time. By training volunteers on basic WASH topics during both the immediate response and the recovery phase, ENPHO and CAWST have been able to link immediate emergency relief to long-term developmental goals. While the recovery phase training continues in Nepal, CAWST is planning to decontextualize the training used in both phases so that it can be applied to other emergency situations in the future. The training materials will become part of the open content materials available on CAWST’s WASH Resources website.

Keywords: Water and sanitation, emergency response, education and training, building resilience.

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Authors: Erfan Asghari Fesaghandis, Reza Ghaffari Adli, Abbas Kianvash, Hossein Aghajani, Homa Homaie

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NiTi alloys possess magnificent superelastic, shape memory, high strength and biocompatible properties. For improving mechanical properties, foremost, superelasticity behavior, heat treatment process is carried out. In this paper, two different heat treatment methods were undertaken: (1) solid solution, and (2) aging. The effect of each treatment in a constant time is investigated. Five samples were prepared to study the structure and optimize mechanical properties under different time and temperature. For measuring the upper plateau stress, lower plateau stress and residual strain, tensile test is carried out. The samples were aged at two different temperatures to see difference between aging temperatures. The sample aged at 500 °C has a bigger crystallite size and lower amount of Ni which causes the mentioned sample to possess poor pseudo elasticity behaviour than the other aged sample. The sample aged at 460 °C has shown remarkable superelastic properties. The mentioned sample’s higher plateau is 580 MPa with the lowest residual strain (0.17%) while other samples have possessed higher residual strains. X-ray diffraction was used to investigate the produced phases.

Keywords: Heat treatment, phase transformation, superelasticity, NiTi alloy.

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Authors: Inas Hussein

Abstract:

Alice Munro is a Canadian short-story writer who has been regarded as one of the greatest writers of fiction. Owing to her great contribution to fiction, she was the first Canadian woman and the only short-story writer ever to be rewarded the Nobel Prize for Literature in 2013. Her literary works include collections of short stories and one book published as a novel. Her stories concentrate on the human condition and the human relationships as seen through the lens of daily life. The setting in most of her stories is her native Canada- small towns much similar to the one where she grew up. Her writing style is not only realistic but is also characterized by autobiographical, historical and regional features. The aim of this research is to analyze one of the key stylistic devices often adopted by Munro in her fictions: the juxtaposition of the past and the present, with reference to the title story in Munro's short story collection Too Much Happiness. The story under exploration is a brief biography of the Russian Mathematician and novelist Sophia Kovalevsky (1850 – 1891), the first woman to be appointed as a professor of Mathematics at a European University in Stockholm. Thus, the story has a historical protagonist and is set on the European continent. Munro dramatizes the severe historical and cultural constraints that hindered the career of the protagonist. A pragmatic stylistic framework is being adopted and the qualitative analysis is supported by textual reference. The stylistic analysis reveals that the juxtaposition of the past and the present is one of the distinctive features that characterize the author; in a typical Munrovian manner, the protagonist often moves between the units of time: the past, the present and, sometimes, the future. Munro's style is simple and direct but cleverly constructed and densely complicated by the presence of deeper layers and stories within the story. Findings of the research reveal that the story under investigation merits reading and analyzing. It is recommended that this story and other stories by Munro are analyzed to further explore the features of her art and style.

Keywords: Alice Munro, Too Much Happiness, juxtaposition of past and present, pragmatic stylistics.

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Authors: C. W. Hsu, C. N. Liang, L. Y. Ke, F. Y. Huang

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Many accidents were happened because of fast driving, habitual working overtime or tired spirit. This paper presents a solution of remote warning for vehicles collision avoidance using vehicular communication. The development system integrates dedicated short range communication (DSRC) and global position system (GPS) with embedded system into a powerful remote warning system. To transmit the vehicular information and broadcast vehicle position; DSRC communication technology is adopt as the bridge. The proposed system is divided into two parts of the positioning andvehicular units in a vehicle. The positioning unit is used to provide the position and heading information from GPS module, and furthermore the vehicular unit is used to receive the break, throttle, and othersignals via controller area network (CAN) interface connected to each mechanism. The mobile hardware are built with an embedded system using X86 processor in Linux system. A vehicle is communicated with other vehicles via DSRC in non-addressed protocol with wireless access in vehicular environments (WAVE) short message protocol. From the position data and vehicular information, this paper provided a conflict detection algorithm to do time separation and remote warning with error bubble consideration. And the warning information is on-line displayed in the screen. This system is able to enhance driver assistance service and realize critical safety by using vehicular information from the neighbor vehicles.KeywordsDedicated short range communication, GPS, Control area network, Collision avoidance warning system.

Keywords: Dedicated short range communication, GPS, Control area network, Collision avoidance warning system.

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Authors: [email protected]

Abstract:

Breast cancer is one of the most common types in women. Early prediction of breast cancer helps physicians detect cancer in its early stages. Big cancer data need a very powerful tool to analyze and extract predictions. Machine learning and deep learning are two of the most efficient tools for predicting cancer based on textual data. In this study, we developed a fusion model of two machine learning and deep learning models. To obtain the final prediction, Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), ensemble learning with hyper parameters optimization, and score-level fusion is used. Experiments are done on the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) dataset after balancing and grouping the class categories. Five different training scenarios are used, and the tests show that the designed fusion model improved the performance by 3.3% compared to the individual models.

Keywords: Machine learning, Deep learning, cancer prediction, breast cancer, LSTM, Score-Level Fusion.

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Authors: Ahmad Mansoor Stanikzai, Yoshitaka Kajita

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This research is a very essential towards transportation planning of Kabul New City. In this research, the travel demand of Kabul metropolitan area (Existing and Kabul New City) are evaluated for three different target years (2015, current, 2025, mid-term, 2040, long-term). The outcome of this study indicates that, though currently the vehicle volume is less the capacity of existing road networks, Kabul city is suffering from daily traffic congestions. This is mainly due to lack of transportation management, the absence of proper policies, improper public transportation system and violation of traffic rules and regulations by inhabitants. On the other hand, the observed result indicates that the current vehicle to capacity ratio (VCR) which is the most used index to judge traffic status in the city is around 0.79. This indicates the inappropriate traffic condition of the city. Moreover, by the growth of population in mid-term (2025) and long-term (2040) and in the case of no development in the road network and transportation system, the VCR value will dramatically increase to 1.40 (2025) and 2.5 (2040). This can be a critical situation for an urban area from an urban transportation perspective. Thus, by introducing high-capacity public transportation system and the development of road network in Kabul New City and integrating these links with the existing city road network, significant improvements were observed in the value of VCR.

Keywords: Afghanistan, Kabul New City, planning, policy, urban transportation.

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

Abstract:

Today, the need for water sources is swiftly increasing due to population growth. At the same time, it is known that some regions will face with shortage of water and drought because of the global warming and climate change. In this context, evaluation and analysis of hydrological data such as the observed trends, drought and flood prediction of short term flow has great deal of importance. The most accurate selection probability distribution is important to describe the low flow statistics for the studies related to drought analysis. As in many basins In Turkey, Gediz River basin will be affected enough by the drought and will decrease the amount of used water. The aim of this study is to derive appropriate probability distributions for frequency analysis of annual minimum flows at 6 gauging stations of the Gediz Basin. After applying 10 different probability distributions, six different parameter estimation methods and 3 fitness test, the Pearson 3 distribution and general extreme values distributions were found to give optimal results.

Keywords: Gediz Basin, goodness-of-fit tests, Minimum flows, probability distribution.

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Authors: N. Perko, N. Kavran, M. Bukljaš, I. Berbić

Abstract:

This paper is a result of implemented research on proposed introduced methodology for nautical ports capacity planning by introducing a multi-criteria approach of defined criteria in the Adriatic Sea region. The purpose was analyzing the determinants - characteristics of infrastructure and services of nautical ports capacity allocated, especially nowadays due to COVID-19 pandemic, as crucial for successful operation of nautical ports. Giving the importance of the defined priorities for short-term and long-term planning is essential not only in terms of the development of nautical tourism, but also in terms of developing the maritime system, but unfortunately this is not always carried out. Evaluation of the use of resources should follow from a detailed analysis of all aspects of resources bearing in mind that nautical tourism used resources in a sustainable manner and generates effects in the tourism and maritime sectors. Consequently, identified multiplier effect of nautical tourism, which should be defined and quantified in detail, should be one of the major competitive products on the Croatian Adriatic and the Mediterranean. Research of nautical tourism is necessary to quantify the effects and required planning system development. In the future, the greatest threat to long-term sustainable development of nautical tourism can be its further uncontrolled or unlimited and undirected development, especially under pressure markedly higher demand than supply for new moorings in the Mediterranean. Results of this implemented research are applicable to nautical ports management and decision makers of maritime transport system development. This paper will present implemented research and obtained result - developed methodology for nautical port capacity planning - Port Capacity Planning Multi-criteria decision-making. A proposed methodological approach of multi-criteria capacity planning includes four criteria (spatial - transport, cost - infrastructure, ecological and organizational criteria, and additional services). The importance of the criteria and sub-criteria is evaluated and carried out the basis for a sensitivity analysis of the importance of the criteria and sub-criteria. Based on the analysis of the identified and quantified importance of certain criteria and sub-criteria as well as sensitivity analysis and analysis of changes of the quantified importance scientific and applicable results will be presented. These obtained results have practical applicability by management of nautical ports in the planning of increasing capacity and further development and for the adaptation of existing nautical ports. The obtained research is applicable and replicable in other seas and results are especially important and useful in this COVID-19 pandemic challenging maritime development framework.

Keywords: Adriatic Sea, capacity, infrastructures, maritime system, methodology, nautical ports, nautical tourism, service.

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Authors: Serge Provost, Yishan Zang

Abstract:

Following a review of various approaches that are utilized for classifying the tail behavior of a distribution, an easily implementable methodology that relies on an arctangent transformation is presented. The classification criterion is actually based on the difference between two specific quantiles of the transformed distribution. The resulting categories enable one to classify distributional tails as distinctly short, short, nearly medium, medium, extended medium and somewhat long, providing that at least two moments exist. Distributions possessing a single moment are said to be long tailed while those failing to have any finite moments are classified as having an extremely long tail. Several illustrative examples will be presented.

Keywords: Arctangent transformation, change of variables, heavy-tailed distributions, tail classification.

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Authors: T. Hussain, M. W. Siddiqi, A. Iqbal

Abstract:

The study is aimed to test causal relationship between growth and unemployment, using time series data for Pakistan from 1972 to 2006. Growth is considered to be a pathway to decrease the level of unemployment. Unemployment is a social and political issue. It is a phenomenon where human resources are wasted leading to deacceleration in growth. Johanson Cointegration shows that there is long run relationship between growth and unemployment. For short run dynamics and causality, the study utilizes Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results of VECM indicate that there is short and long run causal relation between growth and unemployment including capital, labor and human capital as explanatory variables.

Keywords: Economic Growth, Unemployment, Cointegrationand Causality.

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