Search results for: Multi-parameter logistic regression model

Authors: Alejandro Paz Parra, Jose Luis Oslinger Gutierrez, Javier Olaya Ochoa

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In the present paper, five electric current based methods to analyze electric faults on the stator of induction motors (IM) are used and compared. The analysis tries to extend the application of the multiple reference frames diagnosis technique. An eccentricity indicator is presented to improve the application of the Park’s Vector Approach technique. Most of the fault indicators are validated and some others revised, agree with the technical literatures and published results. A tri-phase 3hp squirrel cage IM, especially modified to establish different fault levels, is used for validation purposes.

Keywords: Motor fault diagnosis, induction motor, MCSA, ESA, Extended Park´s vector approach, multiparameter analysis.

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Authors: Nureni O. Adeboye, Dawud A. Agunbiade

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This research attempts to investigate the effects of heteroscedasticity and periodicity in a Panel Data Regression Model (PDRM) by extending previous works on balanced panel data estimation within the context of fitting PDRM for Banks audit fee. The estimation of such model was achieved through the derivation of Joint Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for homoscedasticity and zero-serial correlation, a conditional LM test for zero serial correlation given heteroscedasticity of varying degrees as well as conditional LM test for homoscedasticity given first order positive serial correlation via a two-way error component model. Monte Carlo simulations were carried out for 81 different variations, of which its design assumed a uniform distribution under a linear heteroscedasticity function. Each of the variation was iterated 1000 times and the assessment of the three estimators considered are based on Variance, Absolute bias (ABIAS), Mean square error (MSE) and the Root Mean Square (RMSE) of parameters estimates. Eighteen different models at different specified conditions were fitted, and the best-fitted model is that of within estimator when heteroscedasticity is severe at either zero or positive serial correlation value. LM test results showed that the tests have good size and power as all the three tests are significant at 5% for the specified linear form of heteroscedasticity function which established the facts that Banks operations are severely heteroscedastic in nature with little or no periodicity effects.

Keywords: Audit fee, heteroscedasticity, Lagrange multiplier test, periodicity.

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Authors: Surinder Deswal

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The paper investigates the potential of support vector machines and Gaussian process based regression approaches to model the oxygen–transfer capacity from experimental data of multiple plunging jets oxygenation systems. The results suggest the utility of both the modeling techniques in the prediction of the overall volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient (KLa) from operational parameters of multiple plunging jets oxygenation system. The correlation coefficient root mean square error and coefficient of determination values of 0.971, 0.002 and 0.945 respectively were achieved by support vector machine in comparison to values of 0.960, 0.002 and 0.920 respectively achieved by Gaussian process regression. Further, the performances of both these regression approaches in predicting the overall volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient was compared with the empirical relationship for multiple plunging jets. A comparison of results suggests that support vector machines approach works well in comparison to both empirical relationship and Gaussian process approaches, and could successfully be employed in modeling oxygen-transfer.

Keywords: Oxygen-transfer, multiple plunging jets, support vector machines, Gaussian process.

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Authors: Kadio Valere R. Angaman, Birahim Bouna Niang

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Land degradation is a serious problem in developing countries including Cote d’Ivoire, which has its economy focused on agriculture. It occurs in all kinds of ecosystems over the world. However, the drivers of land degradation vary from one region to another, and from one ecosystem to another. Thus, identifying these drivers is an essential prerequisite to develop and implement appropriate policies to reverse the trend of land degradation in the country, especially in the trays ecosystem. Using the binary logistic model with primary data obtained through 780 farmers surveyed, we analyze and identify the drivers of land degradation in the trays ecosystem. The descriptive statistics show that 52% of farmers interviewed have stated facing land degradation in their farmland. This high rate shows the extent of land degradation in this ecosystem. Also, the results obtained from the binary logit regression reveal that land degradation is significantly influenced by a set of variables such as sex, education, slope, erosion, pesticide, agricultural activity, deforestation, and temperature. The drivers identified are mostly local, as a result, the government must implement some policies and strategies that facilitate and incentive the adoption of sustainable land management practices by farmers to reverse the negative trend of land degradation.

Keywords: Drivers, land degradation, trays ecosystem, sustainable land management.

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Authors: Xiang Zhang, David Rey, S. Travis Waller

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Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) model is a widely used traffic assignment model in transportation planning, which is regarded more advanced than Deterministic User Equilibrium (DUE) model. However, a problem exists that the performance of the SUE model depends on its error term parameter. The objective of this paper is to propose a systematic method of determining the appropriate error term parameter value for the SUE model. First, the significance of the parameter is explored through a numerical example. Second, the parameter calibration method is developed based on the Logit-based route choice model. The calibration process is realized through multiple nonlinear regression, using sequential quadratic programming combined with least square method. Finally, case analysis is conducted to demonstrate the application of the calibration process and validate the better performance of the SUE model calibrated by the proposed method compared to the SUE models under other parameter values and the DUE model.

Keywords: Parameter calibration, sequential quadratic programming, Stochastic User Equilibrium, traffic assignment, transportation planning.

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Authors: Wenbin Zhang, Hantian Wu, Jian Tang

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An artificial neural network is a mathematical model inspired by biological neural networks. There are several kinds of neural networks and they are widely used in many areas, such as: prediction, detection, and classification. Meanwhile, in day to day life, people always have to make many difficult decisions. For example, the coach of a soccer club has to decide which offensive player to be selected to play in a certain game. This work describes a novel Neural Network using a combination of the General Regression Neural Network and the Probabilistic Neural Networks to help a soccer coach make an informed decision.

Keywords: General Regression Neural Network, Probabilistic Neural Networks, Neural function.

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Authors: Ebenezer Kwesi Armah-Ansah, Kenneth Fosu Oteng, Esther Selasi Avinu, Eugene Budu, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw

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Maternal mortality, particularly in Benin, is a major public health concern in sub-Saharan Africa. To provide a positive pregnancy experience and reduce maternal morbidities, all pregnant women must get appropriate and timely prenatal support. However, many pregnant women in developing countries, including Benin, begin Antenatal Care (ANC) late. There is a paucity of empirical literature on the prevalence and predictors of early ANC visits in Benin. As a result, the purpose of this study is to investigate the prevalence and predictors of early ANC visits among women of productive age in Benin. This is a secondary analysis of the 2017/2018 Benin Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) data. The study involved 6,919 eligible women. Data analysis was conducted using Stata version 14.2 for Mac OS. We adopted a multilevel logistic regression to examine the predictors of early ANC visits in Benin. The results were presented as odds ratios (ORs) associated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and p-value < 0.05 to determine the significant associations. The prevalence of early ANC visits among pregnant women in Benin was 57.03% [95% CI: 55.41-58.64]. In the final multilevel logistic regression, early ANC visit was higher among women aged 30-34 [aOR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.17-2.18] compared to those aged 15-19, women with primary education [aOR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.06-142] compared to the non-educated women, women who were covered by health insurance [aOR = 3.03, 95% CI = 1.35-6.76], women without a big problem in getting the money needed for treatment [aOR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.16-1.49], distance to the health facility, not a big problem [aOR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.08-1.41], and women whose partners had secondary/higher education [aOR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.15-1.57] compared with those who were not covered by health insurance, had big problem in getting money needed for treatment, distance to health facility is a big problem and whose partners had no education respectively. However, women who had four or more births [aOR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.48-0.74] and those in Atacora Region [aOR = 0.50, 95% CI = 0.37-0.68] had lower odds of early ANC visit. This study revealed a relatively high prevalence of early ANC visits among women of reproductive age in Benin. Women's age, educational status of women and their partners, parity, health insurance coverage, distance to health facilities, and region were all associated with early ANC visits among women of reproductive in Benin. These factors ought to be taken into account when developing ANC policies and strategies in order to boost early ANC visits among women in Benin. This will significantly reduce maternal and newborn mortality and help achieve the World Health Organization’s recommendation that all pregnant women should initiate early ANC visits within the first three months of pregnancy.

Keywords: Antenatal care, Benin, maternal health, pregnancy, DHS, public health.

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Authors: S. K. Mohan, T. Viruthagiri, C. Arunkumar

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Tannase (tannin acyl hydrolase, E.C.3.1.1.20) is an important hydrolysable enzyme with innumerable applications and industrial potential. In the present study, a kinetic model has been developed for the batch fermentation used for the production of tannase by A.flavus MTCC 3783. Maximum tannase activity of 143.30 U/ml was obtained at 96 hours under optimum operating conditions at 35oC, an initial pH of 5.5 and with an inducer tannic acid concentration of 3% (w/v) for a fermentation period of 120 hours. The biomass concentration reaches a maximum of 6.62 g/l at 96 hours and further there was no increase in biomass concentration till the end of the fermentation. Various unstructured kinetic models were analyzed to simulate the experimental values of microbial growth, tannase activity and substrate concentration. The Logistic model for microbial growth , Luedeking - Piret model for production of tannase and Substrate utilization kinetic model for utilization of substrate were capable of predicting the fermentation profile with high coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.980, 0.942 and 0.983 respectively. The results indicated that the unstructured models were able to describe the fermentation kinetics more effectively.

Keywords: Aspergillus flavus, Batch fermentation, Kinetic model, Tannase, Unstructured models.

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Authors: B. L. Ho, L. Shi, D. F. Wang, V. C. T. Mok

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The brain’s functional connectivity while temporally non-stationary does express consistency at a macro spatial level. The study of stable resting state connectivity patterns hence provides opportunities for identification of diseases if such stability is severely perturbed. A mathematical model replicating the brain’s spatial connections will be useful for understanding brain’s representative geometry and complements the empirical model where it falls short. Empirical computations tend to involve large matrices and become infeasible with fine parcellation. However, the proposed analytical model has no such computational problems. To improve replicability, 92 subject data are obtained from two open sources. The proposed methodology, inspired by financial theory, uses multivariate regression to find relationships of every cortical region of interest (ROI) with some pre-identified hubs. These hubs acted as representatives for the entire cortical surface. A variance-covariance framework of all ROIs is then built based on these relationships to link up all the ROIs. The result is a high level of match between model and empirical correlations in the range of 0.59 to 0.66 after adjusting for sample size; an increase of almost forty percent. More significantly, the model framework provides an intuitive way to delineate between systemic drivers and idiosyncratic noise while reducing dimensions by more than 30 folds, hence, providing a way to conduct attribution analysis. Due to its analytical nature and simple structure, the model is useful as a standalone toolkit for network dependency analysis or as a module for other mathematical models.

Keywords: Functional magnetic resonance imaging, multivariate regression, network hubs, resting state functional connectivity.

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Authors: R. B. Ibrahim, M. S. Argungu, I. M. Mungadi

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It is obvious in this present time, internet has become an indispensable part of human life since its inception. The Internet has provided diverse opportunities to make life so easy for human beings, through the adoption of various channels. Among these channels are email, internet banking, video conferencing, and the like. Email is one of the easiest means of communication hugely accepted among individuals and organizations globally. But over decades the security integrity of this platform has been challenged with malicious activities like Phishing. Email phishing is designed by phishers to fool the recipient into handing over sensitive personal information such as passwords, credit card numbers, account credentials, social security numbers, etc. This activity has caused a lot of financial damage to email users globally which has resulted in bankruptcy, sudden death of victims, and other health-related sicknesses. Although many methods have been proposed to detect email phishing, in this research, the results of multiple machine-learning methods for predicting email phishing have been compared with the use of filter-wrapper feature selection. It is worth noting that all three models performed substantially but one outperformed the other. The dataset used for these models is obtained from Kaggle online data repository, while three classifiers: decision tree, Naïve Bayes, and Logistic regression are ensemble (Bagging) respectively. Results from the study show that the Decision Tree (CART) bagging ensemble recorded the highest accuracy of 98.13% using PEF (Phishing Essential Features). This result further demonstrates the dependability of the proposed model.

Keywords: Ensemble, hybrid, filter-wrapper, phishing.

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Authors: Salah R. Al Zaidee, Ali S. Mahdi

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Except for simple problems of statically determinate structures, optimum design problems in structural engineering have implicit objective functions where structural analysis and design are essential within each searching loop. With these implicit functions, the structural engineer is usually enforced to write his/her own computer code for analysis, design, and searching for optimum design among many feasible candidates and cannot take advantage of available software for structural analysis, design, and searching for the optimum solution. The meta-model is a regression model used to transform an implicit objective function into objective one and leads in turn to decouple the structural analysis and design processes from the optimum searching process. With the meta-model, well-known software for structural analysis and design can be used in sequence with optimum searching software. In this paper, the meta-model has been used to develop an explicit objective function for plane steel frames subjected to dead, live, and seismic forces. Frame topology is assumed as predefined based on architectural and functional requirements. Columns and beams sections and different connections details are the main design variables in this study. Columns and beams are grouped to reduce the number of design variables and to make the problem similar to that adopted in engineering practice. Data for the implicit objective function have been generated based on analysis and assessment for many design proposals with CSI SAP software. These data have been used later in SPSS software to develop a pure quadratic nonlinear regression model for the explicit objective function. Good correlations with a coefficient, R², in the range from 0.88 to 0.99 have been noted between the original implicit functions and the corresponding explicit functions generated with meta-model.

Keywords: Meta-modal, objective function, steel frames, seismic analysis, design.

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Authors: Luis Fonseca, Filipe Cabral Pinto, Susana Sargento

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The increase of the world population, especially in large urban centers, has resulted in new challenges particularly with the control and optimization of public safety. Thus, in the present work, a solution is proposed for the prediction of criminal occurrences in a city based on historical data of incidents and demographic information. The entire research and implementation will be presented start with the data collection from its original source, the treatment and transformations applied to them, choice and the evaluation and implementation of the Machine Learning model up to the application layer. Classification models will be implemented to predict criminal risk for a given time interval and location. Machine Learning algorithms such as Random Forest, Neural Networks, K-Nearest Neighbors and Logistic Regression will be used to predict occurrences, and their performance will be compared according to the data processing and transformation used. The results show that the use of Machine Learning techniques helps to anticipate criminal occurrences, which contributed to the reinforcement of public security. Finally, the models were implemented on a platform that will provide an API to enable other entities to make requests for predictions in real-time. An application will also be presented where it is possible to show criminal predictions visually.

Keywords: Crime prediction, machine learning, public safety, smart city.

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Authors: Farhad Kolahan, Mehdi Heidari

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Gas Metal Arc Welding (GMAW) processes is an important joining process widely used in metal fabrication industries. This paper addresses modeling and optimization of this technique using a set of experimental data and regression analysis. The set of experimental data has been used to assess the influence of GMAW process parameters in weld bead geometry. The process variables considered here include voltage (V); wire feed rate (F); torch Angle (A); welding speed (S) and nozzle-to-plate distance (D). The process output characteristics include weld bead height, width and penetration. The Taguchi method and regression modeling are used in order to establish the relationships between input and output parameters. The adequacy of the model is evaluated using analysis of variance (ANOVA) technique. In the next stage, the proposed model is embedded into a Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithm to optimize the GMAW process parameters. The objective is to determine a suitable set of process parameters that can produce desired bead geometry, considering the ranges of the process parameters. Computational results prove the effectiveness of the proposed model and optimization procedure.

Keywords: Weld Bead Geometry, GMAW welding, Processparameters Optimization, Modeling, SA algorithm

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Authors: K. Manikandan, T. Viruthagiri

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Studies on Simultaneous Saccharification and Fermentation (SSF) of corn flour, a major agricultural product as the substrate using starch digesting glucoamylase enzyme derived from Aspergillus niger and non starch digesting and sugar fermenting Saccharomyces cerevisiae in a batch fermentation. Experiments based on Central Composite Design (CCD) were conducted to study the effect of substrate concentration, pH, temperature, enzyme concentration on Ethanol Concentration and the above parameters were optimized using Response Surface Methodology (RSM). The optimum values of substrate concentration, pH, temperature and enzyme concentration were found to be 160 g/l, 5.5, 30°C and 50 IU respectively. The effect of inoculums age on ethanol concentration was also investigated. The corn flour solution equivalent to 16% initial starch concentration gave the highest ethanol concentration of 63.04 g/l after 48 h of fermentation at optimum conditions of pH and temperature. Monod model and Logistic model were used for growth kinetics and Leudeking – Piret model was used for product formation kinetics.

Keywords: Simultaneous Saccharification and Fermentation(SSF), Corn Starch, Ethanol, Logisitic Model.

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Authors: S.I Sulaiman, T.K Abdul Rahman, I. Musirin, S. Shaari

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This paper presents performance analysis of the Evolutionary Programming-Artificial Neural Network (EPANN) based technique to optimize the architecture and training parameters of a one-hidden layer feedforward ANN model for the prediction of energy output from a grid connected photovoltaic system. The ANN utilizes solar radiation and ambient temperature as its inputs while the output is the total watt-hour energy produced from the grid-connected PV system. EP is used to optimize the regression performance of the ANN model by determining the optimum values for the number of nodes in the hidden layer as well as the optimal momentum rate and learning rate for the training. The EPANN model is tested using two types of transfer function for the hidden layer, namely the tangent sigmoid and logarithmic sigmoid. The best transfer function, neural topology and learning parameters were selected based on the highest regression performance obtained during the ANN training and testing process. It is observed that the best transfer function configuration for the prediction model is [logarithmic sigmoid, purely linear].

Keywords: Artificial neural network (ANN), Correlation coefficient (R), Evolutionary programming-ANN (EPANN), Photovoltaic (PV), logarithmic sigmoid and tangent sigmoid.

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Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

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Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression.

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Authors: Arun Goel

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Prediction of maximum local scour is necessary for the safety and economical design of the bridges. A number of equations have been developed over the years to predict local scour depth using laboratory data and a few pier equations have also been proposed using field data. Most of these equations are empirical in nature as indicated by the past publications. In this paper attempts have been made to compute local depth of scour around bridge pier in dimensional and non-dimensional form by using linear regression, simple regression and SVM (Poly & Rbf) techniques along with few conventional empirical equations. The outcome of this study suggests that the SVM (Poly & Rbf) based modeling can be employed as an alternate to linear regression, simple regression and the conventional empirical equations in predicting scour depth of bridge piers. The results of present study on the basis of non-dimensional form of bridge pier scour indicate the improvement in the performance of SVM (Poly & Rbf) in comparison to dimensional form of scour.

Keywords: Modeling, pier scour, regression, prediction, SVM (Poly & Rbf kernels).

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Authors: Yina F. Muñoz, Alexander Paz, Hanns De La Fuente-Mella, Joaquin V. Fariña, Guilherme M. Sales

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The primary approach for estimating bridge deterioration uses Markov-chain models and regression analysis. Traditional Markov models have problems in estimating the required transition probabilities when a small sample size is used. Often, reliable bridge data have not been taken over large periods, thus large data sets may not be available. This study presents an important change to the traditional approach by using the Small Data Method to estimate transition probabilities. The results illustrate that the Small Data Method and traditional approach both provide similar estimates; however, the former method provides results that are more conservative. That is, Small Data Method provided slightly lower than expected bridge condition ratings compared with the traditional approach. Considering that bridges are critical infrastructures, the Small Data Method, which uses more information and provides more conservative estimates, may be more appropriate when the available sample size is small. In addition, regression analysis was used to calculate bridge deterioration. Condition ratings were determined for bridge groups, and the best regression model was selected for each group. The results obtained were very similar to those obtained when using Markov chains; however, it is desirable to use more data for better results.

Keywords: Concrete bridges, deterioration, Markov chains, probability matrix.

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Authors: Cheng Zeng, George Michailidis, Hitoshi Iyatomi, Leo L Duan

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The conditional density characterizes the distribution of a response variable y given other predictor x, and plays a key role in many statistical tasks, including classification and outlier detection. Although there has been abundant work on the problem of Conditional Density Estimation (CDE) for a low-dimensional response in the presence of a high-dimensional predictor, little work has been done for a high-dimensional response such as images. The promising performance of normalizing flow (NF) neural networks in unconditional density estimation acts a motivating starting point. In this work, we extend NF neural networks when external x is present. Specifically, they use the NF to parameterize a one-to-one transform between a high-dimensional y and a latent z that comprises two components [zP , zN]. The zP component is a low-dimensional subvector obtained from the posterior distribution of an elementary predictive model for x, such as logistic/linear regression. The zN component is a high-dimensional independent Gaussian vector, which explains the variations in y not or less related to x. Unlike existing CDE methods, the proposed approach, coined Augmented Posterior CDE (AP-CDE), only requires a simple modification on the common normalizing flow framework, while significantly improving the interpretation of the latent component, since zP represents a supervised dimension reduction. In image analytics applications, AP-CDE shows good separation of x-related variations due to factors such as lighting condition and subject id, from the other random variations. Further, the experiments show that an unconditional NF neural network, based on an unsupervised model of z, such as Gaussian mixture, fails to generate interpretable results.

Keywords: Conditional density estimation, image generation, normalizing flow, supervised dimension reduction.

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Authors: Mahtab Davari, Charles Edward Okon, Somayeh Aghanavesi

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Every institute of learning is usually interested in the performance of enrolled students. The level of these performances determines the approach an institute of study may adopt in rendering academic services. The focus of this paper is to evaluate students' academic performance in given courses of study using machine learning methods. This study evaluated various supervised machine learning classification algorithms such as Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbors, Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis, using selected features to predict study performance. The accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score obtained from a 5-Fold Cross-Validation were used to determine the best classification algorithm to predict students’ performances. SVM (using a linear kernel), LDA, and LR were identified as the best-performing machine learning methods. Also, using the LR model, this study identified students' educational habits such as reading and paying attention in class as strong determinants for a student to have an above-average performance. Other important features include the academic history of the student and work. Demographic factors such as age, gender, high school graduation, etc., had no significant effect on a student's performance.

Keywords: Student performance, supervised machine learning, prediction, classification, cross-validation.

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Authors: Eva Nedeliakova, Juraj Camaj, Jaroslav Masek

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This contribution is focused on the methodology for identifying levels of quality and improving quality through new logistics model in railway transport. It is oriented on the application of dynamic quality models, which represent an innovative method of evaluation quality services. Through this conception, time factor, expected, and perceived quality in each moment of the transportation process within logistics chain can be taken into account. Various models describe the improvement of the quality which emphases the time factor throughout the whole transportation logistics chain. Quality of services in railway transport can be determined by the existing level of service quality, by detecting the causes of dissatisfaction employees but also customers, to uncover strengths and weaknesses. This new logistics model is able to recognize critical processes in logistic chain. It includes service quality rating that must respect its specific properties, which are unrepeatability, impalpability, their use right at the time they are provided and particularly changeability, which is significant factor in the conditions of rail transport as well. These peculiarities influence the quality of service regarding the constantly increasing requirements and that result in new ways of finding progressive attitudes towards the service quality rating.

Keywords: Logistics model, quality, railway transport.

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Authors: Sotirios Raptis

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Bayesian reasoning (BR) or Linear (Auto) Regression (AR/LR) can predict different sources of data using priors or other data, and can link social service demands in cohorts, while their consideration in isolation (self-prediction) may lead to service misuse ignoring the context. The paper advocates that BR with Binomial (BD), or Normal (ND) models or raw data (.D) as probabilistic updates can be compared to AR/LR to link services in Scotland and reduce cost by sharing healthcare (HC) resources. Clustering, cross-correlation, along with BR, LR, AR can better predict demand. Insurance companies and policymakers can link such services, and examples include those offered to the elderly, and low-income people, smoking-related services linked to mental health services, or epidemiological weight in children. 22 service packs are used that are published by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland and Scottish Government (SG) from 1981 to 2019, broken into 110 year series (factors), joined using LR, AR, BR. The Primary component analysis found 11 significant factors, while C-Means (CM) clustering gave five major clusters.

Keywords: Bayesian probability, cohorts, data frames, regression, services, prediction.

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Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum

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The aim of this study is to predict breast cancer and to construct a supportive model that will stimulate a more reliable prediction as a factor that is fundamental for public health. In this study, we utilize general regression neural networks (GRNN) to replace the normal predictions with prediction periods to achieve a reasonable percentage of confidence. The mechanism employed here utilises a machine learning system called conformal prediction (CP), in order to assign consistent confidence measures to predictions, which are combined with GRNN. We apply the resulting algorithm to the problem of breast cancer diagnosis. The results show that the prediction constructed by this method is reasonable and could be useful in practice.

Keywords: Neural network, conformal prediction, cancer classification, regression.

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Authors: H. B. Mehta, Vipul M. Patel, Jyotirmay Banerjee

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The present paper discusses the prediction of gas-liquid two-phase frictional pressure drop in a 2.12 mm horizontal circular minichannel using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The experimental results are obtained with air as gas phase and water as liquid phase. The superficial gas velocity is kept in the range of 0.0236 m/s to 0.4722 m/s while the values of 0.0944 m/s, 0.1416 m/s and 0.1889 m/s are considered for superficial liquid velocity. The experimental results are predicted using different Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. Networks used for prediction are radial basis, generalised regression, linear layer, cascade forward back propagation, feed forward back propagation, feed forward distributed time delay, layer recurrent, and Elman back propagation. Transfer functions used for networks are Linear (PURELIN), Logistic sigmoid (LOGSIG), tangent sigmoid (TANSIG) and Gaussian RBF. Combination of networks and transfer functions give different possible neural network models. These models are compared for Mean Absolute Relative Deviation (MARD) and Mean Relative Deviation (MRD) to identify the best predictive model of ANN.

Keywords: Minichannel, Two-Phase Flow, Frictional Pressure Drop, ANN, MARD, MRD.

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Authors: Willem Waegeman, Luc Boullart

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Instead of traditional (nominal) classification we investigate the subject of ordinal classification or ranking. An enhanced method based on an ensemble of Support Vector Machines (SVM-s) is proposed. Each binary classifier is trained with specific weights for each object in the training data set. Experiments on benchmark datasets and synthetic data indicate that the performance of our approach is comparable to state of the art kernel methods for ordinal regression. The ensemble method, which is straightforward to implement, provides a very good sensitivity-specificity trade-off for the highest and lowest rank.

Keywords: Ordinal regression, support vector machines, ensemblelearning.

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Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

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The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second – 95,3%.

Keywords: Bass model, generalized Bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States.

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Authors: Maumita Bhattacharya

Abstract:

Evolutionary Algorithms are population-based, stochastic search techniques, widely used as efficient global optimizers. However, many real life optimization problems often require finding optimal solution to complex high dimensional, multimodal problems involving computationally very expensive fitness function evaluations. Use of evolutionary algorithms in such problem domains is thus practically prohibitive. An attractive alternative is to build meta models or use an approximation of the actual fitness functions to be evaluated. These meta models are order of magnitude cheaper to evaluate compared to the actual function evaluation. Many regression and interpolation tools are available to build such meta models. This paper briefly discusses the architectures and use of such meta-modeling tools in an evolutionary optimization context. We further present two evolutionary algorithm frameworks which involve use of meta models for fitness function evaluation. The first framework, namely the Dynamic Approximate Fitness based Hybrid EA (DAFHEA) model [14] reduces computation time by controlled use of meta-models (in this case approximate model generated by Support Vector Machine regression) to partially replace the actual function evaluation by approximate function evaluation. However, the underlying assumption in DAFHEA is that the training samples for the metamodel are generated from a single uniform model. This does not take into account uncertain scenarios involving noisy fitness functions. The second model, DAFHEA-II, an enhanced version of the original DAFHEA framework, incorporates a multiple-model based learning approach for the support vector machine approximator to handle noisy functions [15]. Empirical results obtained by evaluating the frameworks using several benchmark functions demonstrate their efficiency

Keywords: Meta model, Evolutionary algorithm, Stochastictechnique, Fitness function, Optimization, Support vector machine.

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Authors: L. J. de Bessa Neto, V. S. Filho, J. V. Ferreira Nunes, G. C. Bergamo

Abstract:

There are many situations in which human activities have significant effects on the environment. Damage to the ozone layer is one of them. The objective of this work is to use the Least Squares Method, considering the linear, exponential, logarithmic, power and polynomial models of the second degree, to analyze through the coefficient of determination (R²), which model best fits the behavior of the chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b) in parts per trillion between 1992 and 2018, as well as estimates of future concentrations between 5 and 10 periods, i.e. the concentration of this pollutant in the years 2023 and 2028 in each of the adjustments. A total of 809 observations of the concentration of HCFC-142b in one of the monitoring stations of gases precursors of the deterioration of the ozone layer during the period of time studied were selected and, using these data, the statistical software Excel was used for make the scatter plots of each of the adjustment models. With the development of the present study, it was observed that the logarithmic fit was the model that best fit the data set, since besides having a significant R² its adjusted curve was compatible with the natural trend curve of the phenomenon.

Keywords: Chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-142b), ozone (O3), least squares method, regression models.

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Authors: Hadi Sadoghi Yazdi, Tahereh Royani, Mehri Sadoghi Yazdi, Sohrab Effati

Abstract:

In this paper, a new version of support vector regression (SVR) is presented namely Fuzzy Cost SVR (FCSVR). Individual property of the FCSVR is operation over fuzzy data whereas fuzzy cost (fuzzy margin and fuzzy penalty) are maximized. This idea admits to have uncertainty in the penalty and margin terms jointly. Robustness against noise is shown in the experimental results as a property of the proposed method and superiority relative conventional SVR.

Keywords: Support vector regression, Fuzzy input, Fuzzy cost.

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Authors: Farhad Kolahan, A. Hamid Khajavi

Abstract:

Abrasive waterjet is a novel machining process capable of processing wide range of hard-to-machine materials. This research addresses modeling and optimization of the process parameters for this machining technique. To model the process a set of experimental data has been used to evaluate the effects of various parameter settings in cutting 6063-T6 aluminum alloy. The process variables considered here include nozzle diameter, jet traverse rate, jet pressure and abrasive flow rate. Depth of cut, as one of the most important output characteristics, has been evaluated based on different parameter settings. The Taguchi method and regression modeling are used in order to establish the relationships between input and output parameters. The adequacy of the model is evaluated using analysis of variance (ANOVA) technique. The pairwise effects of process parameters settings on process response outputs are also shown graphically. The proposed model is then embedded into a Simulated Annealing algorithm to optimize the process parameters. The optimization is carried out for any desired values of depth of cut. The objective is to determine proper levels of process parameters in order to obtain a certain level of depth of cut. Computational results demonstrate that the proposed solution procedure is quite effective in solving such multi-variable problems.

Keywords: AWJ cutting, Mathematical modeling, Simulated Annealing, Optimization

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