Search results for: Energy consumption forecasting

Authors: Rita U. Onolemhemhen, Saheed L. Bello, Akin P. Iwayemi

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The effectiveness of energy demand policy depends on identifying the key drivers of energy demand both in the short-run and the long-run. This paper examines the influence of regional differences on the link between energy demand and other explanatory variables for Nigeria, China and USA using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. This study employed annual time series data on energy consumption (ED), real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (RGDP), real energy prices (P) and urbanization (N) for a thirty-six-year sample period. The utilized time-series data are sourced from World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI, 2016) and US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Results from the study, shows that all the independent variables (income, urbanization, and price) substantially affect the long-run energy consumption in Nigeria, USA and China, whereas, income has no significant effect on short-run energy demand in USA and Nigeria. In addition, the long-run effect of urbanization is relatively stronger in China. Urbanization is a key factor in energy demand, it therefore recommended that more attention should be given to the development of rural communities to reduce the inflow of migrants into urban communities which causes the increase in energy demand and energy excesses should be penalized while energy management should be incentivized.

Keywords: Economic growth, energy demand, income, real GDP, urbanization, VECM.

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Authors: Li Zhu, Binghua Wang, Yong Sun

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China is experiencing the rural development process, with the agritourism complex becoming one of the significant modes. Therefore, it is imperative to understand the energy performance of agritourism complex. This study focuses on a typical case of the agritourism complex and simulates the energy consumption performance on condition of the regular energy system. It was found that HVAC took 90% of the whole energy demand range. In order to optimize the energy supply structure, the hierarchical analysis was carried out on the level of architecture with three main factors such as construction situation, building types and energy demand types. Finally, the energy planning suggestion of the agritourism complex was put forward and the relevant results were obtained.

Keywords: Agritourism complex, energy planning, energy demand simulation, hierarchical structure model.

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Authors: Jerome T. Tolentino, Ma. Victoria Rejuso, Jara Kaye Villanueva, Loureal Camille Inocencio, Ma. Rosario Concepcion O. Ang

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Wind energy is rapidly emerging as the primary source of electricity in the Philippines, although developing an accurate wind resource model is difficult. In this study, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, an open source mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, was used to produce a 1-year atmospheric simulation with 4 km resolution on the Ilocos Region of the Philippines. The WRF output (netCDF) extracts the annual mean wind speed data using a Python-based Graphical User Interface. Lastly, wind resource assessment was produced using a GIS software. Results of the study showed that it is more flexible to use Python scripts than using other post-processing tools in dealing with netCDF files. Using WRF Model, Python, and Geographic Information Systems, a reliable wind resource map is produced.

Keywords: Wind resource assessment, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, python, GIS software.

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Authors: J.-P. Skön, M. Johansson, O. Kauhanen, M. Raatikainen, K. Leiviskä, M. Kolehmainen

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The building sector is the largest energy consumer and CO2 emitter in the European Union (EU) and therefore the active reduction of energy consumption and elimination of energy wastage are among the main goals in it. Healthy housing and energy efficiency are affected by many factors which set challenges to monitoring, control and research of indoor air quality (IAQ) and energy consumption, especially in old buildings. These challenges include measurement and equipment costs, for example. Additionally, the measurement results are difficult to interpret and their usage in the ventilation control is also limited when taking into account the energy efficiency of housing at the same time. The main goal of this study is to develop a cost-effective building monitoring and control system especially for old buildings. The starting point or keyword of the development process is a wireless system; otherwise the installation costs become too high. As the main result, this paper describes an idea of a wireless building monitoring and control system. The first prototype of the system has been installed in 10 residential buildings and in 10 school buildings located in the City of Kuopio, Finland.

Keywords: Energy efficiency, Indoor air quality, Monitoring system, Building automation

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Authors: Valeriya Tyo, Serikbolat Yessengabulov

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Regions with extreme climate conditions such as Astana city require energy saving measures to increase energy performance of buildings which are responsible for more than 40% of total energy consumption. Identification of optimal building geometry is one of key factors to be considered. Architectural form of a building has impact on space heating and cooling energy use, however the interrelationship between the geometry and resultant energy use is not always readily apparent. This paper presents a comparative case study of two prototypical buildings with compact building shape to assess its impact on energy performance.

Keywords: Building geometry, energy efficiency, heat gain, heat loss.

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Authors: Marwan Ihsan Shukur, Lee Sheng Chyan, Vooi Voon Yap

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Wireless sensor networks is an emerging technology that serves as environment monitors in many applications. Yet these miniatures suffer from constrained resources in terms of computation capabilities and energy resources. Limited energy resource in these nodes demands an efficient consumption of that resource either by developing the modules itself or by providing an efficient communication protocols. This paper presents a comprehensive summarization and a comparative study of the available MAC protocols proposed for Wireless Sensor Networks showing their capabilities and efficiency in terms of energy consumption and delay guarantee.

Keywords: MAC (Medium Access Control), SEA (Simple EnergyAware), WSNs (Wireless Sensor Nodes or Networks) RTS (RequestTo Send), CTS (Clear To Send), SYNCH (Synchronize), NS2(Network Simulator 2).

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Authors: T. Costa, D. Narvaez, K. Melo, M. Villalva

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Installation of micro-generators based on renewable energy in power distribution system has increased in recent years, with the main renewable sources being solar and wind. Due to the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources, such micro-generators produce time-varying energy which does not correspond at certain times of the day to the peak energy consumption of end users. For this reason, the use of energy storage units next to the grid contributes to the proper leveling of the buses’ voltage level according to Brazilian energy quality standards. In this work, the effect of the addition of a photovoltaic solar generator and a store of energy in the busbar voltages of an electric system is analyzed. The consumption profile is defined as the average hourly use of appliances in a common residence, and the generation profile is defined as a function of the solar irradiation available in a locality. The power summation method is validated with analytical calculation and is used to calculate the modules and angles of the voltages in the buses of an electrical system based on the IEEE standard, at each hour of the day and with defined load and generation profiles. The results show that bus 5 presents the worst voltage level at the power consumption peaks and stabilizes at the appropriate range with the inclusion of the energy storage during the night time period. Solar generator maintains improvement of the voltage level during the period when it receives solar irradiation, having peaks of production during the 12 pm (without exceeding the appropriate maximum levels of tension).

Keywords: Energy storage, power distribution system, solar generator, voltage level.

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Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya

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The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.

Keywords: Flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina.

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Authors: Jheng-Long Wu, Pei-Chann Chang, Yi-Fang Pan

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This research focus on developing a new segmentation method for improving forecasting model which is call trend based segmentation method (TBSM). Generally, the piece-wise linear representation (PLR) can finds some of pair of trading points is well for time series data, but in the complicated stock environment it is not well for stock forecasting because of the stock has more trends of trading. If we consider the trends of trading in stock price for the trading signal which it will improve the precision of forecasting model. Therefore, a TBSM with SVR model used to detect the trading points for various stocks of Taiwanese and America under different trend tendencies. The experimental results show our trading system is more profitable and can be implemented in real time of stock market

Keywords: Trend based segmentation method, support vector machine, turning detection, stock forecasting.

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Authors: Morten Brøgger, Kim Wittchen

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Focus on reducing energy consumption in existing buildings at large scale, e.g. in cities or countries, has been increasing in recent years. In order to reduce energy consumption in existing buildings, political incentive schemes are put in place and large scale investments are made by utility companies. Prioritising these investments requires a comprehensive overview of the energy consumption in the existing building stock, as well as potential energy-savings. However, a building stock comprises thousands of buildings with different characteristics making it difficult to model energy consumption accurately. Moreover, the complexity of the building stock makes it difficult to convey model results to policymakers and other stakeholders. In order to manage the complexity of the building stock, building archetypes are often employed in building stock energy models (BSEMs). Building archetypes are formed by segmenting the building stock according to specific characteristics. Segmenting the building stock according to building type and building age is common, among other things because this information is often easily available. This segmentation makes it easy to convey results to non-experts. However, using a single archetypical building to represent all buildings in a segment of the building stock is associated with loss of detail. Thermal characteristics are aggregated while other characteristics, which could affect the energy efficiency of a building, are disregarded. Thus, using a simplified representation of the building stock could come at the expense of the accuracy of the model. The present study evaluates the accuracy of a conventional archetype-based BSEM that segments the building stock according to building type- and age. The accuracy is evaluated in terms of the archetypes’ ability to accurately emulate the average energy demands of the corresponding buildings they were meant to represent. This is done for the buildings’ energy demands as a whole as well as for relevant sub-demands. Both are evaluated in relation to the type- and the age of the building. This should provide researchers, who use archetypes in BSEMs, with an indication of the expected accuracy of the conventional archetype model, as well as the accuracy lost in specific parts of the calculation, due to use of the archetype method.

Keywords: Building stock energy modelling, energy-savings, archetype.

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Authors: A. Ouargui, N. Belouaggadia, M. Ezzine

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In Morocco, the building sector is largely responsible for the evolution of energy consumption. The control of energy in this sector remains a major issue despite the rise of renewable energies. The design of an environmentally friendly building requires mastery and knowledge of energy and bioclimatic aspects. This implies taking into consideration of all the elements making up the building and the way in which energy exchanges take place between these elements. In this context, thermal insulation seems to be an ideal starting point for reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. In this context, thermal insulation seems to be an ideal starting point for reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The aim of this work is to provide some solutions to reduce energy consumption while maintaining thermal comfort in the building. The objective of our work is to present an experimental study on the characterization of local materials used in the thermal insulation of buildings. These are paper recycling stabilized with cement and clay. The thermal conductivity of these materials, which were constituted based on sand, clay, cement; water, as well as treated paper, was determined by the guarded-hot-plate method. It involves the design of two materials that will subsequently be subjected to thermal and mechanical tests to determine their thermophysical properties. The results show that the thermal conductivity decreases as well in the case of the paper-cement mixture as that of the paper-clay and seems to stabilize around 40%. Measurements of mechanical properties such as flexural strength have shown that the enrichment of the studied material with paper makes it possible to reduce the flexural strength by 20% while optimizing the conductivity.

Keywords: Building, composite material, insulation, thermal conductivity, paper residue.

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Authors: Tien-Shun Chan, Yung-Chung Chang, Cheng-Yu Chu, Wen-Hui Chen, Yuan-Lin Chen, Shun-Chong Wang, Chang-Chun Wang

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98% of the energy needed in Taiwan has been imported. The prices of petroleum and electricity have been increasing. In addition, facility capacity, amount of electricity generation, amount of electricity consumption and number of Taiwan Power Company customers have continued to increase. For these reasons energy conservation has become an important topic. In the past linear regression was used to establish the power consumption models for chillers. In this study, grey prediction is used to evaluate the power consumption of a chiller so as to lower the total power consumption at peak-load (so that the relevant power providers do not need to keep on increasing their power generation capacity and facility capacity). In grey prediction, only several numerical values (at least four numerical values) are needed to establish the power consumption models for chillers. If PLR, the temperatures of supply chilled-water and return chilled-water, and the temperatures of supply cooling-water and return cooling-water are taken into consideration, quite accurate results (with the accuracy close to 99% for short-term predictions) may be obtained. Through such methods, we can predict whether the power consumption at peak-load will exceed the contract power capacity signed by the corresponding entity and Taiwan Power Company. If the power consumption at peak-load exceeds the power demand, the temperature of the supply chilled-water may be adjusted so as to reduce the PLR and hence lower the power consumption.

Keywords: Gery system theory, grey prediction, chller.

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Authors: Biswajit Biswas

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Demand of energy is increasing faster than the generation. It leads shortage of power in all sectors of society. At peak hours this shortage is higher. Unless we utilize energy efficient technology, it is very difficult to minimize the shortage of energy. So energy efficiency program and energy conservation has an important role. Energy efficient technologies are cost intensive hence it is always not possible to implement in country like India. In the recent study, an educational building with operating hours from 10:00 a.m. to 05:00 p.m. has been selected to quantify the possibility of lighting energy conservation. As the operating hour is in daytime, integration of daylight with artificial lighting system will definitely reduce the lighting energy consumption. Moreover the initial investment has been given priority and hence the existing lighting installation was unaltered. An automatic controller has been designed which will be operated as a function of daylight through windows and the lighting system of the room will function accordingly. The result of the study of integrating daylight gave quite satisfactory for visual comfort as well as energy conservation.

Keywords: Lighting energy, energy efficiency, daylight, illumination, energy conservation.

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Authors: Hussain Ali Bekhet, Endang Jati Mat Sahid

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For the past few decades, the Malaysian economy has expanded at an impressive pace, whilst, the Malaysian population has registered a relatively high growth rate. These factors had driven the growth of final energy demand. The ballooning energy demand coupled with the country’s limited indigenous energy resources have resulted in an increased of the country’s net import. Therefore, acknowledging the precarious position of the country’s energy self-sufficiency, this study has identified three main concerns regarding energy security, namely; over-dependence on fossil fuel, increasing energy import dependency, and increasing energy consumption per capita. This paper discusses the recent energy demand and supply trends, highlights the policies that are affecting energy security in Malaysia and suggests strategic options towards achieving energy security. The paper suggested that diversifying energy sources, reducing carbon content of energy, efficient utilization of energy and facilitating low-carbon industries could further enhance the effectiveness of the measures as the introduction of policies and initiatives will be more holistic.

Keywords: Energy security, electricity, energy policy, renewable energy, energy efficiency, Malaysia.

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Authors: Shengman Zhao, Yang Yu, Shenghui Cui

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Using logarithmic mean Divisia decomposition technique, this paper analyzes the change in industrial energy intensity of Fujian Province in China, based on data sets of added value and energy consumption for 35 selected industrial sub-sectors from 1999 to 2009. The change in industrial energy intensity is decomposed into intensity effect and structure effect. Results show that the industrial energy intensity of Fujian Province has achieved a reduction of 51% over the past ten years. The structural change, a shift in the mix of industrial sub-sectors, made overwhelming contribution to the reduction. The impact of energy efficiency’s improvement was relatively small. However, the aggregate industrial energy intensity was very sensitive to both the changes in energy intensity and in production share of energy-intensive sub-sectors, such as production and supply of electric power, steam and hot water. Pathway to reduce industrial energy intensity for energy conservation in Fujian Province is proposed in the end.

Keywords: Decomposition analysis, energy intensity, Fujian Province, industry.

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Authors: Yang Zhang, Yuncai Liu

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Accurately predicting non-peak traffic is crucial to daily traffic for all forecasting models. In the paper, least squares support vector machines (LS-SVMs) are investigated to solve such a practical problem. It is the first time to apply the approach and analyze the forecast performance in the domain. For comparison purpose, two parametric and two non-parametric techniques are selected because of their effectiveness proved in past research. Having good generalization ability and guaranteeing global minima, LS-SVMs perform better than the others. Providing sufficient improvement in stability and robustness reveals that the approach is practically promising.

Keywords: Parametric and Nonparametric Techniques, Non-peak Traffic Forecasting

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Authors: Huey-Kuo Chen

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Travel demand forecasting including four travel choices, i.e., trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and traffic assignment constructs the core of transportation planning. In its current application, travel demand forecasting has associated with three important issues, i.e., interface inconsistencies among four travel choices, inefficiency of commonly used solution algorithms, and undesirable multiple path solutions. In this paper, each of the three issues is extensively elaborated. An ideal unified framework for the combined model consisting of the four travel choices and variable demand functions is also suggested. Then, a few remarks are provided in the end of the paper

Keywords: Travel choices, B algorithm, entropy maximization, dynamic traffic assignment.

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Authors: Suhadiyana Hanapi, Alhassan Salami Tijani, W. A. N Wan Mohamed

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In this paper, a prototype PEM fuel cell vehicle integrated with a 1 kW air-blowing proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) stack as a main power sources has been developed for a lightweight cruising vehicle. The test vehicle is equipped with a PEM fuel cell system that provides electric power to a brushed DC motor. This vehicle was designed to compete with industrial lightweight vehicle with the target of consuming least amount of energy and high performance. Individual variations in driving style have a significant impact on vehicle energy efficiency and it is well established from the literature. The primary aim of this study was to assesses the power and fuel consumption of a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle operating at three difference driving technique (i.e. 25 km/h constant speed, 22-28 km/h speed range, 20-30 km/h speed range). The goal is to develop the best driving strategy to maximize performance and minimize fuel consumption for the vehicle system. The relationship between power demand and hydrogen consumption has also been discussed. All the techniques can be evaluated and compared on broadly similar terms. Automatic intelligent controller for driving prototype fuel cell vehicle on different obstacle while maintaining all systems at maximum efficiency was used. The result showed that 25 km/h constant speed was identified for optimal driving with less fuel consumption.

Keywords: Prototype fuel cell electric vehicles, energy efficient, control/driving technique, fuel economy.

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Authors: Hen Friman

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Various categories of aqueous solutions are discharged within residential, institutional, commercial, and industrial structures. To safeguard public health and preserve the environment, it is imperative to subject wastewater to treatment processes that eliminate pathogens (such as bacteria and viruses), nutrients (such as nitrogen and phosphorus), and other compounds. Failure to address untreated sewage accumulation can result in an array of adverse consequences. Israel exemplifies a special case in wastewater management. Appropriate wastewater treatment significantly benefits sectors such as agriculture, tourism, horticulture, and industry. Nevertheless, untreated sewage in settlements lacking proper sewage collection or transportation networks remains an ongoing and substantial threat. Notably, the process of wastewater treatment entails substantial energy consumption. Consequently, this study explores the integration of solar energy as a renewable power source within the wastewater treatment framework. By incorporating renewable energy sources into the process, costs can be minimized, and decentralized facilities can be established even in areas lacking adequate infrastructure for traditional treatment methods.

Keywords: Renewable energy, solar energy, decentralized facilities, wastewater treatment.

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Authors: Mansour Nikpour, Mohd Zin kandar, Mohsen Ghasemi, Hossein Fallah

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Over half of the total electricity consumption is used in buildings. Air-conditioning and electric lighting are the two main resources of electricity consumption in high rise buildings. One way to reduce electricity consumption would be to limit heat gain into buildings, therefore reduce the demand for air-conditioning during hot summer months especially in hot regions. On the other hand natural daylight can be used to reduce the use of electricity for artificial lighting. In this paper effective factors on minimizing heat gain and achieving required day light were reviewed .As daylight always accompanied by solar heat gain. Also interactions between heat gain and daylight were discussed through previous studies and equations which are related to heat gain and day lighting especially in high rise buildings. As a result importance of building-s form and its component on energy consumption in buildings were clarified.

Keywords: High rise buildings, energy demand, day lighting, heat gain.

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Authors: Apichit Svang-Ariyaskul, Thanapat Chaireongsirikul, Pawit Tangviroon

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Distillation consumes enormous quantity of energy. This work proposed a process to recover the energy from exit streams during the distillation process of three consecutive columns. There are several novel techniques to recover the heat with the distillation system; however, a complex control system is required. This work proposed a simpler technique by exchanging the heat between streams without interrupting the internal distillation process that might cause a serious control problem. The proposed process is executed by using heat exchanger network with pinch analysis to maximize the process heat recovery. The test model is the distillation of butane, pentane, hexane, and heptanes, which is a common mixture in the petroleum refinery. This proposed process saved the energy consumption for hot and cold utilities of 29 and 27%, which is considered significant. Therefore, the recovery of heat from exit streams from distillation process is proved to be effective for energy saving.

Keywords: Distillation, Heat Exchanger, Network Pinch Analysis.

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Authors: Alò Roberta, Bottiglione Francesco, Mantriota Giacomo

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The efficiency of the actuation system of exoskeletons and active orthoses for lower limbs is a significant aspect of the design of such devices because it affects their efficacy. The F-IVT is an innovative actuation system to power artificial knee joint with energy recovery capabilities. Its key and non-conventional elements are a flywheel that acts as a mechanical energy storage system, and an Infinitely Variable Transmission (IVT). The design of the F-IVT can be optimized for a certain walking condition, resulting in a heavy reduction of both the electric energy consumption and of the electric peak power. In this work, by means of simulations of level ground walking at different speeds, it is demonstrated that the F-IVT is still an advantageous actuator which permits to save energy consumption and to downsize the electric motor even when it does not work in nominal conditions.

Keywords: Active orthoses, actuators, lower extremity exoskeletons, knee joint.

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Authors: M. Azadbakht, A. Rezaei Asl, K. Tamaskani Zahedi

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Corn is cultivated in most countries because of high consumption, quality, and food value. This study evaluated needed energy for cutting corn stems in different levels of cutting height and moisture content. For this reason, test device was fabricated and then calibrated. The device works on the principle of conservation of energy. The results were analyzed using split plot design and SAS software. The results showed that effect of height and moisture content and their interaction effect on cutting energy are significant (P<1%). The maximum cutting energy was 3.22 kJ in 63 (w.b.%) moisture content and the minimum cutting energy was 1.63 kJ in 83.25 (w.b.%) moisture content.

Keywords: Cutting energy, Corn stalk, Cutting height, Moisture content, Impact cutting.

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Authors: Ibrahim H. Kilic, A. B. Tugrul

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Energy is a fundamental component in economic development and energy consumption is an index of prosperity and the standard of living. The consumption of energy per capita has increased significantly over the last decades, as the standard of living has improved. Turkey’s geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of wind power. Among the renewable sources, Turkey has very high wind energy potential. Information such as installation capacity of wind power plants in installation, under construction and license stages in the country are reported in detail. Some suggestions are presented in order to increase the wind power installation capacity of Turkey. Turkey’s economic and social development has led to a massive increase in demand for electricity over the last decades. Since the Turkey has no major oil or gas reserves, it is highly dependent on energy imports and is exposed to energy insecurity in the future. But Turkey does have huge potential for renewable energy utilization. There has been a huge growth in the construction of wind power plants and small hydropower plants in recent years. To meet the growing energy demand, the Turkish Government has adopted incentives for investments in renewable energy production. Wind energy investments evaluated the impact of feed-in tariffs (FIT) based on three scenarios that are optimistic, realistic and pessimistic with APLUS software that is developed for rational evaluation for energy market. Results of the three scenarios are evaluated in the view of electricity market for Turkey.

Keywords: APLUS, energy policy, renewable energy, wind power, Turkey.

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Authors: J. Pawłat, H. Stryczewska

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Shortening of natural resources will impose greater limitations of electric energy consumption in various fields including water treatment technologies. Small water treatment installations supplied with electric energy from solar sources are perfect example of zero-emission technology. Possibility of solar energy application, as one of the alternative energy resources for decontamination processes is strongly dependent on geographical location. Various examples of solar driven water purification systems are given and design of solar-water treatment installation based on ozone for the geographical conditions in Poland are presented.

Keywords: solar energy, water purification, ozone water treatment

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Authors: Kunya Bowornchockchai

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The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0)  without constant and the forecasting equation is Y_t = Y_t-1 + 0.3691 (Y_t-1 - Y_t-2) When Y_t  is the time series data at time t, respectively.

Keywords: Box–Jenkins Method, Holt’s Method, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE).

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Authors: James D. Clark, Bernard H. Stark

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The paper presents a modelling methodology for small scale multi-source renewable energy systems. Using historical site-specific weather data, the relationships of cost, availability and energy form are visualised as a function of the sizing of photovoltaic arrays, wind turbines, and battery capacity. The specific dependency of each site on its own particular weather patterns show that unique solutions exist for each site. It is shown that in certain cases the capital component cost can be halved if the desired theoretical demand availability is reduced from 100% to 99%.

Keywords: Energy Analysis, Forecasting, Distributed powergeneration.

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Authors: Hazem M. El-Bakry, Nikos Mastorakis

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Fast forecasting of stock market prices is very important for strategic planning. In this paper, a new approach for fast forecasting of stock market prices is presented. Such algorithm uses new high speed time delay neural networks (HSTDNNs). The operation of these networks relies on performing cross correlation in the frequency domain between the input data and the input weights of neural networks. It is proved mathematically and practically that the number of computation steps required for the presented HSTDNNs is less than that needed by traditional time delay neural networks (TTDNNs). Simulation results using MATLAB confirm the theoretical computations.

Keywords: Fast Forecasting, Stock Market Prices, Time Delay NeuralNetworks, Cross Correlation, Frequency Domain.

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Authors: Tea Poklepović, Zdravka Aljinović, Branka Marasović

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Due to the importance of yield curve and its estimation it is inevitable to have valid methods for yield curve forecasting in cases when there are scarce issues of securities and/or week trade on a secondary market. Therefore in this paper, after the estimation of weekly yield curves on Croatian financial market from October 2011 to August 2012 using Nelson-Siegel and Svensson models, yield curves are forecasted using Vector autoregressive model and Neural networks. In general, it can be concluded that both forecasting methods have good prediction abilities where forecasting of yield curves based on Nelson Siegel estimation model give better results in sense of lower Mean Squared Error than forecasting based on Svensson model Also, in this case Neural networks provide slightly better results. Finally, it can be concluded that most appropriate way of yield curve prediction is Neural networks using Nelson-Siegel estimation of yield curves.

Keywords: Nelson-Siegel model, Neural networks, Svensson model, Vector autoregressive model, Yield curve.

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Authors: Mansour Nikpour, Mohd Zin kandar, Mohammad Ghomeshi, Nima Moeinzadeh, Mohsen Ghasemi

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So much energy is used in high rise buildings to fulfill the basic needs of users such as lighting and thermal comfort. Malaysia has hot and humid climate, buildings especially high rise buildings receive unnecessary solar radiation that cause more solar heat gain. Energy use specially electricity consumption in high rise buildings has increased. There have been growing concerns about energy consumption and its effect on environment. Building, energy and the environment are important issues that the designers should consider to them. Self protected form is one of possible ways against the impact of solar radiation in high rise buildings. The Energy performance of building envelopes was investigated in term of the Overall Thermal Transfer Value (OTTV ).In this paper, the amount of OTTV reduction was calculated through OTTV Equations to clear the effectiveness of self shading strategy on minimizing energy consumption for cooling interior spaces in high rise buildings which has considerable envelope areas against solar radiation. Also increasing the optimum window area was investigated using self-shading strategy in designing high rise buildings. As result, the significant reduction in OTTV was shown based on WWR.In addition slight increase was demonstrated in WWR that can influence on visible comfort interior spaces.

Keywords: Self-shading strategy, high rise buildings, Overall thermal transfer value (OTTV ), Window to wall ratio (WWR).

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