Search results for: Distribution System Reliability.

Authors: Nelson J. Cossa, Narayanan S. Potty, Mohd Shahir Liew, Arazi B. Idrus

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The oil and gas industry has moved towards Load and Resistance Factor Design through API RP2A - LRFD and the recently published international standard, ISO-19902, for design of fixed steel offshore structures. The ISO 19902 is intended to provide a harmonized design practice that offers a balanced structural fitness for the purpose, economy and safety. As part of an ongoing work, the reliability analysis of tubular joints of the jacket structure has been carried out to calibrate the load and resistance factors for the design of offshore platforms in Malaysia, as proposed in the ISO. Probabilistic models have been established for the load effects (wave, wind and current) and the tubular joints strengths. In this study the First Order Reliability Method (FORM), coded in MATLAB Software has been employed to evaluate the reliability index of the typical joints, designed using API RP2A - WSD and ISO 19902.

Keywords: FORM, Reliability Analysis, Tubular Joints

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Authors: Pradeep Kumar, Abdul Wahid

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Accurate software reliability prediction not only enables developers to improve the quality of software but also provides useful information to help them for planning valuable resources. This paper examines the performance of three well-known data mining techniques (CART, TreeNet and Random Forest) for predicting software reliability. We evaluate and compare the performance of proposed models with Cascade Correlation Neural Network (CCNN) using sixteen empirical databases from the Data and Analysis Center for Software. The goal of our study is to help project managers to concentrate their testing efforts to minimize the software failures in order to improve the reliability of the software systems. Two performance measures, Normalized Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE) and Mean Absolute Errors (MAE), illustrate that CART model is accurate than the models predicted using Random Forest, TreeNet and CCNN in all datasets used in our study. Finally, we conclude that such methods can help in reliability prediction using real-life failure datasets.

Keywords: Classification, Cascade Correlation Neural Network, Random Forest, Software reliability, TreeNet.

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Authors: K. -H. Yang

Abstract:

Supplier selection problem is one of the important issues of supply chain problems. Two categories of methodologies include qualitative and quantitative approaches which can be applied to supplier selection problems. However, due to the complexities of the problem and lacking of reliable and quantitative data, qualitative approaches are more than quantitative approaches. This study considers operational cost and supplier’s reliability factor and solves the problem by using a quantitative approach. A mixed integer programming model is the primary analytic tool. Analyses of different scenarios with variable cost and reliability structures show that the effectiveness of this approach to the supplier selection problem.

Keywords: Mixed integer programming, quantitative approach, supplier’s reliability, supplier selection.

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Authors: Gamze Ozel, Selen Cakmakyapan

Abstract:

We introduce a new model called the Marshall-Olkin Rayleigh distribution which extends the Rayleigh distribution using Marshall-Olkin transformation and has increasing and decreasing shapes for the hazard rate function. Various structural properties of the new distribution are derived including explicit expressions for the moments, generating and quantile function, some entropy measures, and order statistics are presented. The model parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood and the observed information matrix is determined. The potentiality of the new model is illustrated by means of a simulation study. 

Keywords: Marshall-Olkin distribution, Rayleigh distribution, estimation, maximum likelihood.

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Authors: Atefeh Pourshafie, Mohsen. Saniei, S. S. Mortazavi, A. Saeedian

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In this paper optimal capacitor placement problem has been formulated in a restructured distribution network. In this scenario the distribution network operator can consider reactive energy also as a service that can be sold to transmission system. Thus search for optimal location, size and number of capacitor banks with the objective of loss reduction, maximum income from selling reactive energy to transmission system and return on investment for capacitors, has been performed. Results is influenced with economic value of reactive energy, therefore problem has been solved for various amounts of it. The implemented optimization technique is genetic algorithm. For any value of reactive power economic value, when reverse of investment index increase and change from zero or negative values to positive values, the threshold value of selling reactive power has been obtained. This increasing price of economic parameter is reasonable until the network losses is less than loss before compensation.

Keywords: capacitor placement, deregulated electric market, distribution network optimization.

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Authors: S. Ganesh

Abstract:

Power distribution systems typically have tie and sectionalizing switches whose states determine the topological configuration of the network. The aim of network reconfiguration of the distribution network is to minimize the losses for a load arrangement at a particular time. Thus the objective function is to minimize the losses of the network by satisfying the distribution network constraints. The various constraints are radiality, voltage limits and the power balance condition. In this paper the status of the switches is obtained by using Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm. ABC is based on a particular intelligent behavior of honeybee swarms. ABC is developed based on inspecting the behaviors of real bees to find nectar and sharing the information of food sources to the bees in the hive. The proposed methodology has three stages. In stage one ABC is used to find the tie switches, in stage two the identified tie switches are checked for radiality constraint and if the radilaity constraint is satisfied then the procedure is proceeded to stage three otherwise the process is repeated. In stage three load flow analysis is performed. The process is repeated till the losses are minimized. The ABC is implemented to find the power flow path and the Forward Sweeper algorithm is used to calculate the power flow parameters. The proposed methodology is applied for a 33–bus single feeder distribution network using MATLAB.

Keywords: Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm, Distribution system, Loss reduction, Network reconfiguration.

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Authors: Kong Fah Tee, Lutfor Rahman Khan, Hongshuang Li

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An advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for the time-dependent reliability prediction for underground pipelines has been presented in this paper. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level with efficient investigating of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. In SS method, random samples leading to progressive failure are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic performance by statistical variables. SS gains its efficiency as small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment. It is hoped that the development work can promote the use of SS tools for uncertainty propagation in the decision-making process of underground pipelines network reliability prediction.

Keywords: Underground pipelines, Probability of failure, Reliability and Subset Simulation.

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Authors: Sami W. Tabsh

Abstract:

The strength of reinforced concrete depends on the member dimensions and material properties. The properties of concrete and steel materials are not constant but random variables. The variability of concrete strength is due to batching errors, variations in mixing, cement quality uncertainties, differences in the degree of compaction and disparity in curing. Similarly, the variability of steel strength is attributed to the manufacturing process, rolling conditions, characteristics of base material, uncertainties in chemical composition, and the microstructure-property relationships. To account for such uncertainties, codes of practice for reinforced concrete design impose resistance factors to ensure structural reliability over the useful life of the structure. In this investigation, the effects of reductions in concrete and reinforcing steel strengths from the nominal values, beyond those accounted for in the structural design codes, on the structural reliability are assessed. The considered limit states are flexure, shear and axial compression based on the ACI 318-11 structural concrete building code. Structural safety is measured in terms of a reliability index. Probabilistic resistance and load models are compiled from the available literature. The study showed that there is a wide variation in the reliability index for reinforced concrete members designed for flexure, shear or axial compression, especially when the live-to-dead load ratio is low. Furthermore, variations in concrete strength have minor effect on the reliability of beams in flexure, moderate effect on the reliability of beams in shear, and sever effect on the reliability of columns in axial compression. On the other hand, changes in steel yield strength have great effect on the reliability of beams in flexure, moderate effect on the reliability of beams in shear, and mild effect on the reliability of columns in axial compression. Based on the outcome, it can be concluded that the reliability of beams is sensitive to changes in the yield strength of the steel reinforcement, whereas the reliability of columns is sensitive to variations in the concrete strength. Since the embedded target reliability in structural design codes results in lower structural safety in beams than in columns, large reductions in material strengths compromise the structural safety of beams much more than they affect columns.

Keywords: Code, flexure, limit states, random variables, reinforced concrete, reliability, reliability index, shear, structural safety.

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Authors: Ching-Sheng Wang, Xin-Mao Huang, Ming-Yu Hung

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In this paper, we present a method named Signal Level Matrix (SLM) which can improve the accuracy and stability of active RFID indoor positioning system. Considering the accuracy and cost, we use uniform distribution mode to set up and separate the overlapped signal covering areas, in order to achieve preliminary location setting. Then, based on the proposed SLM concept and the characteristic of the signal strength value that attenuates as the distance increases, this system cross-examines the distribution of adjacent signals to locate the users more accurately. The experimental results indicate that the adaptive positioning method proposed in this paper could improve the accuracy and stability of the positioning system effectively and satisfyingly.

Keywords: RFID positioning, localization, indoor, location-aware.

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Authors: Richard Joseph, Nerey Mvungi

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An electric power system includes a generating, a transmission, a distribution, and consumers subsystems. An electrical power network in Tanzania keeps growing larger by the day and become more complex so that, most utilities have long wished for real-time monitoring and remote control of electrical power system elements such as substations, intelligent devices, power lines, capacitor banks, feeder switches, fault analyzers and other physical facilities. In this paper, the concept of automation of management of power systems from generation level to end user levels was determined by using Power System Simulator for Engineering (PSS/E) version 30.3.2.

Keywords: Automation, Distribution subsystem, Generating subsystem, PSS/E, TANESCO, Transmission subsystem.

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Authors: Martha Liliana Reina Usuga, Wilson Adarme Jaimes, Oscar Eduardo Suarez

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Coordinated supply chain represents major challenges for the different actors involved in it, because each agent responds to individual interests. The paper presents a framework with the reviewed literature regarding the system's decision structure and nature of demand. Later, it characterizes an agri food supply chain in the Central Region of Colombia, it responds to a decentralized distribution system and a stochastic demand. Finally, the paper recommends coordinating the chain based on shared information, and mechanisms for each agent, as VMI (vendor-managed inventory) strategy for farmer-buyer relationship, information system for farmers and contracts for transportation service providers.

Keywords: Agri-food supply chain, Coordination mechanisms, Decentralized distribution system, Supply chain coordination.

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Authors: Mehmet Nefes, Selman Demirel, Hasan H. Ertok, Cenk Sen

Abstract:

A typical reliability engineering problem regarding communication satellites has been considered to determine redundancy allocation scheme of power amplifiers within payload transponder module, whose dominant function is to amplify power levels of the received signals from the Earth, through maximizing reliability against mass, power, and other technical limitations. Adding each redundant power amplifier component increases not only reliability but also hardware, testing, and launch cost of a satellite. This study investigates a multi-objective approach used in order to solve Redundancy Allocation Problem (RAP) for a communication satellite payload transponder, focusing on design cost due to redundancy and reliability factors. The main purpose is to find the optimum power amplifier redundancy configuration satisfying reliability and capacity thresholds simultaneously instead of analyzing respectively or independently. A mathematical model and calculation approach are instituted including objective function definitions, and then, the problem is solved analytically with different input parameters in MATLAB environment. Example results showed that payload capacity and failure rate of power amplifiers have remarkable effects on the solution and also processing time.

Keywords: Communication satellite payload, multi-objective optimization, redundancy allocation problem, reliability, transponder.

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Authors: N. Ruangkajonmathee, R. Thiamsri, B. Marungsri

Abstract:

This paper presents the experimental results on space charge distribution in cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) insulating material for 22 kV power distribution system cable by using pulse electroacoustic measurement technique (PEA). Numbers of XLPE insulating material ribbon having thickness 60 μm taken from unused 22 kV high voltage cable were used as specimen in this study. DC electric field stress was applied to test specimen at room temperature (25°C). Four levels of electric field stress, 25 kV/mm, 50 kV/mm, 75 kV/mm and 100 kV/mm, were used. In order to investigate space charge distribution characteristic, space charge distribution characteristics were measured after applying electric field stress 15 min, 30 min and 60 min, respectively. The results show that applied time and magnitude of dc electric field stress play an important role to the formation of space charge.

Keywords: Space charge distribution, pulsed electroacoustic(PEA) technique, cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE), DC electrical fields stress.

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Authors: A. Khanal, A. Osareh, G. Lebby

Abstract:

Wind energy offers a significant advantage such as no fuel costs and no emissions from generation. However, wind energy sources are variable and non-dispatchable. The utility grid is able to accommodate the variability of wind in smaller proportion along with the daily load. However, at high penetration levels, the variability can severely impact the utility reserve requirements and the cost associated with it. In this paper the impact of wind energy is evaluated in detail in formulating the total utility cost. The objective is to minimize the overall cost of generation while ensuring the proper management of the load. Overall cost includes the curtailment cost, reserve cost and the reliability cost, as well as any other penalty imposed by the regulatory authority. Different levels of wind penetrations are explored and the cost impacts are evaluated. As the penetration level increases significantly, the reliability becomes a critical question to be answered. Here we increase the penetration from the wind yet keep the reliability factor within the acceptable limit provided by NERC. This paper uses an economic dispatch (ED) model to incorporate wind generation into the power grid. Power system costs are analyzed at various wind penetration levels using Linear Programming. The goal of this study is show how the increases in wind generation will affect power system economics.

Keywords: Balancing Reserves, Optimization, Wind Energy.

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Authors: R. Srinivasa Rao

Abstract:

This paper presents a new method which applies an artificial bee colony algorithm (ABC) for capacitor placement in distribution systems with an objective of improving the voltage profile and reduction of power loss. The ABC algorithm is a new population based meta heuristic approach inspired by intelligent foraging behavior of honeybee swarm. The advantage of ABC algorithm is that it does not require external parameters such as cross over rate and mutation rate as in case of genetic algorithm and differential evolution and it is hard to determine these parameters in prior. The other advantage is that the global search ability in the algorithm is implemented by introducing neighborhood source production mechanism which is a similar to mutation process. To demonstrate the validity of the proposed algorithm, computer simulations are carried out on 69-bus system and compared the results with the other approach available in the literature. The proposed method has outperformed the other methods in terms of the quality of solution and computational efficiency.

Keywords: Distribution system, Capacitor Placement, Loss reduction, Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm.

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Authors: Meenakshi Bheevgade, Rajendra M. Patrikar

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In today-s new technology era, cluster has become a necessity for the modern computing and data applications since many applications take more time (even days or months) for computation. Although after parallelization, computation speeds up, still time required for much application can be more. Thus, reliability of the cluster becomes very important issue and implementation of fault tolerant mechanism becomes essential. The difficulty in designing a fault tolerant cluster system increases with the difficulties of various failures. The most imperative obsession is that the algorithm, which avoids a simple failure in a system, must tolerate the more severe failures. In this paper, we implemented the theory of watchdog timer in a parallel environment, to take care of failures. Implementation of simple algorithm in our project helps us to take care of different types of failures; consequently, we found that the reliability of this cluster improves.

Keywords: Cluster, Fault tolerant, Grid, Grid ComputingSystem, Meta-computing.

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Authors: S. B. Mansuri

Abstract:

In this paper, at first we explain about negative hypergeometric distribution and its properties. Then we use the w-function and the Stein identity to give a result on the poisson approximation to the negative hypergeometric distribution in terms of the total variation distance between the negative hypergeometric and poisson distributions and its upper bound.

Keywords: Negative hypergeometric distribution, Poisson distribution, Poisson approximation, Stein-Chen identity, w-function.

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Authors: Mohammad Ali Baradaran Ghahfarokhi, Parvin Baradaran Ghahfarokhi

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In this paper, first we introduce the stable distribution, stable process and theirs characteristics. The a -stable distribution family has received great interest in the last decade due to its success in modeling data, which are too impulsive to be accommodated by the Gaussian distribution. In the second part, we propose major applications of alpha stable distribution in telecommunication, computer science such as network delays and signal processing and financial markets. At the end, we focus on using stable distribution to estimate measure of risk in stock markets and show simulated data with statistical softwares.

Keywords: stable distribution, SaS, infinite variance, heavy tail networks, VaR.

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Authors: P. Waiyawuththanapoom

Abstract:

This research is objected to study the pattern and channel of distribution of Ang Thong’s court doll OTOP product and try to develop the quality of distribution of the court doll product. The population of this research is 50 court doll manufacturers of Ang Thong’s court doll. The data and information was collected by using the questionnaire and use percentage, mean and standard deviation as an analysis tools. The distribution channel of Ang Thong’s court doll can be separated into 3 channels which are direct distribution from the manufacturer, via the middleman and via the co-operated manufacturing group. In the direct distribution from the manufacturer channel, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to how they keep the inventory. In the distribution via the middleman channel, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to the distribution efficiency. But in the distribution via the co-operated manufacturing group, it was found that the manufacturer is given the highest rate of importance to the public relationship.

Keywords: Distribution, Court Doll, Ang Thong Province.

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Authors: Daniela Ocipova, Zuzana Vranayova, Ondrej Sikula

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Safe drinking water is one of the biggest issues facing the planet this century. The primary aim of this paper is to present our research focused on theoretical and experimental analysis of potable water and in-building water distribution systems from the point of view of microbiological risk on the basis of confrontation between the theoretical analysis and synthesis of gathered information in conditions of the Slovak Republic. The presence of the bacteria Legionella in water systems, especially in hot water distribution system, represents in terms of health protection of inhabitants the crucial problem which cannot be overlooked. Legionella pneumophila discovery, its classification and its influence on installations inside buildings are relatively new. There are a lot of guidelines and regulations developed in many individual countries for the design, operation and maintenance for tap water systems to avoid the growth of bacteria Legionella pneumophila, but in Slovakia we don-t have any. The goal of this paper is to show the necessity of prevention and regulations for installations inside buildings verified by simulation methods.

Keywords: Legionella pneumophila, water temperature, distribution system, risk analysis, simulations.

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Authors: S. Mohideen Badhusha, K. Duraiswamy

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Most of the existing video streaming protocols provide video services without considering security aspects in decentralized mobile ad-hoc networks. The security policies adapted to the currently existing non-streaming protocols, do not comply with the live video streaming protocols resulting in considerable vulnerability, high bandwidth consumption and unreliability which cause severe security threats, low bandwidth and error prone transmission respectively in video streaming applications. Therefore a synergized methodology is required to reduce vulnerability and bandwidth consumption, and enhance reliability in the video streaming applications in MANET. To ensure the security measures with reduced bandwidth consumption and improve reliability of the video streaming applications, a Secure Low-bandwidth Video Streaming through Reliable Multipath Propagation (SLVRMP) protocol architecture has been proposed by incorporating the two algorithms namely Secure Low-bandwidth Video Streaming Algorithm and Reliable Secure Multipath Propagation Algorithm using Layered Video Coding in non-overlapping zone routing network topology. The performances of the proposed system are compared to those of the other existing secure multipath protocols Sec-MR, SPREAD using NS 2.34 and the simulation results show that the performances of the proposed system get considerably improved.

Keywords: Bandwidth consumption, layered video coding, multipath propagation, reliability, security threats, video streaming applications, vulnerability.

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Authors: Juan Blas, Alfonso Bahillo, Santiago Mazuelas, David Bullido, Patricia Fernandez, Ruben M. Lorenzo, Evaristo J. Abril

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This paper presents a low cost automatic system for sampling the electric field in a limited area. The scanning area is a flat surface parallel to the ground at a selected height. We discuss in detail the hardware, software and all the arrangements involved in the system operation. In order to show the system performance we include a campaign of narrow band measurements with 6017 sample points in the surroundings of a cellular base station. A commercial isotropic antenna with three orthogonal axes was used as sampling device. The results are analyzed in terms of its space average, standard deviation and statistical distribution.

Keywords: measurement device, propagation, spatial sampling.

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Authors: Ki-Young Kim, Jae-Ho Lim, Deok-Min Kim, Seok-Yoon Kim

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Average current analysis checking the impact of current flow is very important to guarantee the reliability of semiconductor systems. As semiconductor process technologies improve, the coupling capacitance often become bigger than self capacitances. In this paper, we propose an analytic technique for analyzing average current on interconnects in multi-conductor structures. The proposed technique has shown to yield the acceptable errors compared to HSPICE results while providing computational efficiency.

Keywords: current moment, interconnect modeling, reliability analysis, worst-case switching

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Authors: Hyoung-Muk Lim, Won-Jun Choi, Jae-Seon Yoon, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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Space-time block code(STBC) has been studied to get full diversity and full rate in multiple input multiple output(MIMO) system. Achieving full rate is difficult in cooperative communications due to the each user consumes the time slots for transmitting information in cooperation phase. So combining MIMO systems with cooperative communications has been researched for full diversity and full rate. In orthogonal frequency division multiple access (OFDMA) system, it is an alternative way that each user shares their allocated subchannels instead of using the MIMO system to improve the transmission rate. In this paper, a Decode-and-forward (DF) based cooperative communication scheme is proposed. The proposed scheme has improved transmission rate and reliability in multi-path fading channel of the OFDMA up-link condition by modified STBC structure and subchannel sharing.

Keywords: cooperation, improved rate, OFDMA, STBC.

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Authors: Ekkaluk Eksook, Chutima Prommak

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This paper address the network reliability optimization problem in the optical access network design for the 3G cellular systems. We presents a novel 0-1 integer programming model for designing optical access network topologies comprised of multi-rings with common-edge in order to guarantee always-on services. The results show that the proposed model yields access network topologies with the optimal reliablity and satisfies both network cost limitations and traffic demand requirements.

Keywords: Network Reliability, Topological Network Design, 3G Cellular Networks.

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Authors: Yaşar Baykul, Musa Gürsel, Hacı Sulak, Erhan Ertekin, Ersen Yazıcı, Osman Dülger, Yasin Aslan, Kağan Büyükkarcı

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The reliability of the tools developed to learn the learning styles is essential to find out students- learning styles trustworthily. For this purpose, the psychometric features of Grasha- Riechman Student Learning Style Inventory developed by Grasha was studied to contribute to this field. The study was carried out on 6th, 7th, and 8th graders of 10 primary education schools in Konya. The inventory was applied twice with an interval of one month, and according to the data of this application, the reliability coefficient numbers of the 6 sub-dimensions pointed in the theory of the inventory was found to be medium. Besides, it was found that the inventory does not have a structure with 6 factors for both Mathematics and English courses as represented in the theory.

Keywords: Learning styles, Grasha-Riechmann, reliability, validity.

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Authors: Yahya Naderi, Tohid Rahimi, Babak Yousefi, Seyed Hossein Hosseini

Abstract:

Today’s modern interconnected power system is highly complex in nature. In this, one of the most important requirements during the operation of the electric power system is the reliability and security. Power and frequency oscillation damping mechanism improve the reliability. Because of power system stabilizer (PSS) low speed response against of major fault such as three phase short circuit, FACTs devise that can control the network condition in very fast time, are becoming popular. But FACTs capability can be seen in a major fault present when nonlinear models of FACTs devise and power system equipment are applied. To realize this aim, the model of multi-machine power system with FACTs controller is developed in MATLAB/SIMULINK using Sim Power System (SPS) blockiest. Among the FACTs device, Static synchronous series compensator (SSSC) due to high speed changes its reactance characteristic inductive to capacitive, is effective power flow controller. Tuning process of controller parameter can be performed using different method. But Genetic Algorithm (GA) ability tends to use it in controller parameter tuning process. In this paper firstly POD controller is used to power oscillation damping. But in this station, frequency oscillation dos not has proper damping situation. So FOD controller that is tuned using GA is using that cause to damp out frequency oscillation properly and power oscillation damping has suitable situation.

Keywords: Power oscillation damping (POD), frequency oscillation damping (FOD), Static synchronous series compensator (SSSC), Genetic Algorithm (GA).

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Authors: Carl D. Hays III

Abstract:

The purpose of this theory paper is to add a reliability indicator to Operating Equipment Effectiveness (OpEE) which is used to evaluate the productivity of machines and equipment with wheels and tracks. OpEE is a derivative of Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) which has been widely used for many decades in factories that manufacture products. OEE has three variables, Availability Rate, Work Rate, and Quality Rate. When OpEE was converted from OEE, the Quality Rate variable was replaced with Travel Rate. Travel Rate is essentially utilization which is a common performance indicator in machines and equipment. OpEE was designed for machines operated in remote locations such as forests, roads, fields, and farms. This theory paper intends to add the Quality Rate variable back to OpEE by including a reliability indicator in the dashboard view. This paper will suggest that the OEE quality variable can be used with a reliability metric and combined with the OpEE score. With this dashboard view of both performance metrics and reliability, fleet managers will have a more complete understanding of equipment productivity and reliability. This view will provide both leading and lagging indicators of performance in machines and equipment. The lagging indicators will indicate the trends and the leading indicators will provide an overall performance score to manage.

Keywords: Operating Equipment Effectiveness, Operating Equipment Effectiveness, IoT, Contamination Monitoring.

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Mohamed Essadik Kerkar

Abstract:

Probabilistic risk analysis models are used to provide a better understanding of the reliability and structural failure of works, including when calculating the stability of large structures to a major risk in the event of an accident or breakdown. This work is interested in the study of the probability of failure of concrete dams through the application of reliability analysis methods including the methods used in engineering. It is in our case, the use of level 2 methods via the study limit state. Hence, the probability of product failures is estimated by analytical methods of the type first order risk method (FORM) and the second order risk method (SORM). By way of comparison, a level three method was used which generates a full analysis of the problem and involves an integration of the probability density function of random variables extended to the field of security using the Monte Carlo simulation method. Taking into account the change in stress following load combinations: normal, exceptional and extreme acting on the dam, calculation of the results obtained have provided acceptable failure probability values which largely corroborate the theory, in fact, the probability of failure tends to increase with increasing load intensities, thus causing a significant decrease in strength, shear forces then induce a shift that threatens the reliability of the structure by intolerable values of the probability of product failures. Especially, in case the increase of uplift in a hypothetical default of the drainage system.

Keywords: Dam, failure, limit-state, Monte Carlo simulation, reliability, probability, simulation, sliding, Taylor.

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Authors: К. R. Aida–Zade, C. Ardil, S. S. Rustamov

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Statement of the automatic speech recognition problem, the assignment of speech recognition and the application fields are shown in the paper. At the same time as Azerbaijan speech, the establishment principles of speech recognition system and the problems arising in the system are investigated. The computing algorithms of speech features, being the main part of speech recognition system, are analyzed. From this point of view, the determination algorithms of Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC) and Linear Predictive Coding (LPC) coefficients expressing the basic speech features are developed. Combined use of cepstrals of MFCC and LPC in speech recognition system is suggested to improve the reliability of speech recognition system. To this end, the recognition system is divided into MFCC and LPC-based recognition subsystems. The training and recognition processes are realized in both subsystems separately, and recognition system gets the decision being the same results of each subsystems. This results in decrease of error rate during recognition. The training and recognition processes are realized by artificial neural networks in the automatic speech recognition system. The neural networks are trained by the conjugate gradient method. In the paper the problems observed by the number of speech features at training the neural networks of MFCC and LPC-based speech recognition subsystems are investigated. The variety of results of neural networks trained from different initial points in training process is analyzed. Methodology of combined use of neural networks trained from different initial points in speech recognition system is suggested to improve the reliability of recognition system and increase the recognition quality, and obtained practical results are shown.

Keywords: Speech recognition, cepstral analysis, Voice activation detection algorithm, Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients, features of speech, Cepstral Mean Subtraction, neural networks, Linear Predictive Coding.

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