Search results for: long short-term memory networks
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3447

Search results for: long short-term memory networks

1497 Aerobic Bioprocess Control Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Authors: M. Caramihai, Irina Severin

Abstract:

This paper deals with the design of an intelligent control structure for a bioprocess of Hansenula polymorpha yeast cultivation. The objective of the process control is to produce biomass in a desired physiological state. The work demonstrates that the designed Hybrid Control Techniques (HCT) are able to recognize specific evolution bioprocess trajectories using neural networks trained specifically for this purpose, in order to estimate the model parameters and to adjust the overall bioprocess evolution through an expert system and a fuzzy structure. The design of the control algorithm as well as its tuning through realistic simulations is presented. Taking into consideration the synergism of different paradigms like fuzzy logic, neural network, and symbolic artificial intelligence (AI), in this paper we present a real and fulfilled intelligent control architecture with application in bioprocess control.

Keywords: Bioprocess, intelligent control, neural nets, fuzzy structure, hybrid techniques.

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1496 Hybrid Hierarchical Routing Protocol for WSN Lifetime Maximization

Authors: H. Aoudia, Y. Touati, E. H. Teguig, A. Ali Cherif

Abstract:

Conceiving and developing routing protocols for wireless sensor networks requires considerations on constraints such as network lifetime and energy consumption. In this paper, we propose a hybrid hierarchical routing protocol named HHRP combining both clustering mechanism and multipath optimization taking into account residual energy and RSSI measures. HHRP consists of classifying dynamically nodes into clusters where coordinators nodes with extra privileges are able to manipulate messages, aggregate data and ensure transmission between nodes according to TDMA and CDMA schedules. The reconfiguration of the network is carried out dynamically based on a threshold value which is associated with the number of nodes belonging to the smallest cluster. To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach HHRP, a comparative study with LEACH protocol is illustrated in simulations.

Keywords: Routing protocols, energy optimization, clustering.

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1495 A New Approach to Polynomial Neural Networks based on Genetic Algorithm

Authors: S. Farzi

Abstract:

Recently, a lot of attention has been devoted to advanced techniques of system modeling. PNN(polynomial neural network) is a GMDH-type algorithm (Group Method of Data Handling) which is one of the useful method for modeling nonlinear systems but PNN performance depends strongly on the number of input variables and the order of polynomial which are determined by trial and error. In this paper, we introduce GPNN (genetic polynomial neural network) to improve the performance of PNN. GPNN determines the number of input variables and the order of all neurons with GA (genetic algorithm). We use GA to search between all possible values for the number of input variables and the order of polynomial. GPNN performance is obtained by two nonlinear systems. the quadratic equation and the time series Dow Jones stock index are two case studies for obtaining the GPNN performance.

Keywords: GMDH, GPNN, GA, PNN.

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1494 Widening Students Perspective: Empowering Them with Systems Methodologies

Authors: Albertus G. Joubert, Roelien Goede

Abstract:

Benefits to the organisation are just as important as technical ability when it comes to software success. The challenge is to provide industry with professionals who understand this. In other words: How to teach computer engineering students to look beyond technology, and at the benefits of software to organizations? This paper reports on the conceptual design of a section of the computer networks module aimed to sensitize the students to the organisational context. Checkland focuses on different worldviews represented by various role players in the organisation. He developed the Soft Systems Methodology that guides purposeful action in organisations, while incorporating different worldviews in the modeling process. If we can sensitize students to these methods, they are likely to appreciate the wider context of application of system software. This paper will provide literature on these concepts as well as detail on how the students will be guided to adopt these concepts.

Keywords: Checkland, Soft Systems Methodology, Systems Approach, System Software.

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1493 A Dual Model for Efficiency Evaluation Considering Time Lag Effect

Authors: Yan Shuang Zhang, Taehan Lee, Byung Ho Jeong

Abstract:

A DEA model can generally evaluate the performance using multiple inputs and outputs for the same period. However, it is hard to avoid the production lead time phenomenon some times, such as long-term project or marketing activity. A couple of models have been suggested to capture this time lag issue in the context of DEA. This paper develops a dual-MPO model to deal with time lag effect in evaluating efficiency. A numerical example is also given to show that the proposed model can be used to get efficiency and reference set of inefficient DMUs and to obtain projected target value of input attributes for inefficient DMUs to be efficient.

Keywords: DEA, efficiency, time lag, dual problem.

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1492 Active Control Improvement of Smart Cantilever Beam by Piezoelectric Materials and On-Line Differential Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: P. Karimi, A. H. Khedmati Bazkiaei

Abstract:

The main goal of this study is to test differential neural network as a controller of smart structure and is to enumerate its advantages and disadvantages in comparison with other controllers. In this study, the smart structure has been considered as a Euler Bernoulli cantilever beam and it has been tried that it be under control with the use of vibration neural network resulting from movement. Also, a linear observer has been considered as a reference controller and has been compared its results. The considered vibration charts and the controlled state have been recounted in the final part of this text. The obtained result show that neural observer has better performance in comparison to the implemented linear observer.

Keywords: Smart material, on-line differential artificial neural network, active control, finite element method.

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1491 Model of Multi-Criteria Evaluation for Railway Lines

Authors: Juraj Camaj, Martin Kendra, Jaroslav Masek

Abstract:

The paper is focused to the evaluation railway tracks in the Slovakia by using Multi-Criteria method. Evaluation of railway tracks has important impacts for the assessment of investment in technical equipment. Evaluation of railway tracks also has an important impact for the allocation of marshalling yards. Marshalling yards are in transport model as centers for the operation assigned catchment area. This model is one of the effective ways to meet the development strategy of the European Community's railways. By applying this model in practice, a transport company can guarantee a higher quality of service and then expect an increase in performance. The model is also applicable to other rail networks. This model supplements a theoretical problem of train formation problem of new ways of looking at evaluation of factors affecting the organization of wagon flows.

Keywords: Railway track, multi-criteria methods, evaluation, transportation model.

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1490 Application of Artificial Neural Network in the Investigation of Bearing Defects

Authors: S. Sendhil Kumar, M. Senthil Kumar

Abstract:

Maintenance and design engineers have great concern for the functioning of rotating machineries due to the vibration phenomenon. Improper functioning in rotating machinery originates from the damage to rolling element bearings. The status of rolling element bearings require advanced technologies to monitor their health status efficiently and effectively. Avoiding vibration during machine running conditions is a complicated process. Vibration simulation should be carried out using suitable sensors/ transducers to recognize the level of damage on bearing during machine operating conditions. Various issues arising in rotating systems are interlinked with bearing faults. This paper presents an approach for fault diagnosis of bearings using neural networks and time/frequencydomain vibration analysis.

Keywords: Bearing vibration, Condition monitoring, Fault diagnosis, Frequency domain.

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1489 Health Risk Assessment of Trihalogenmethanes in Drinking Water

Authors: Lenka Jesonkova, Frantisek Bozek

Abstract:

Trihalogenmethanes (THMs) are disinfection byproducts with non-carcinogenic and genotoxic effects. The contamination of 6 sites close to the water treatment plant has been monitored in second largest city of the Czech Republic. Health risk assessment including both non-carcinogenic and genotoxic risk for long term exposition was realized using the critical concentrations. Concentrations of trihalogenmethanes met national standards in all samples. Risk assessment proved that health risks from trihalogenmethanes are acceptable on each site.

Keywords: Drinking water, health risk assessment, trihalogenmethanes, water pollution.

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1488 Endometrial Cancer Recognition via EEG Dependent upon 14-3-3 Protein Leading to an Ontological Diagnosis

Authors: Marios Poulos, Eirini Maliagani, Minas Paschopoulos, George Bokos

Abstract:

The purpose of my research proposal is to demonstrate that there is a relationship between EEG and endometrial cancer. The above relationship is based on an Aristotelian Syllogism; since it is known that the 14-3-3 protein is related to the electrical activity of the brain via control of the flow of Na+ and K+ ions and since it is also known that many types of cancer are associated with 14-3-3 protein, it is possible that there is a relationship between EEG and cancer. This research will be carried out by well-defined diagnostic indicators, obtained via the EEG, using signal processing procedures and pattern recognition tools such as neural networks in order to recognize the endometrial cancer type. The current research shall compare the findings from EEG and hysteroscopy performed on women of a wide age range. Moreover, this practice could be expanded to other types of cancer. The implementation of this methodology will be completed with the creation of an ontology. This ontology shall define the concepts existing in this research-s domain and the relationships between them. It will represent the types of relationships between hysteroscopy and EEG findings.

Keywords: Bioinformatics, Protein 14-3-3, EEG, Endometrial cancer, Ontology.

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1487 Neutral to Earth Voltage Analysis in Harmonic Polluted Distribution Networks with Multi- Grounded Neutrals

Authors: G. Ahmadi, S.M. Shahrtash

Abstract:

A multiphase harmonic load flow algorithm is developed based on backward/forward sweep to examine the effects of various factors on the neutral to earth voltage (NEV), including unsymmetrical system configuration, load unbalance and harmonic injection. The proposed algorithm composes fundamental frequency and harmonic frequencies power flows. The algorithm and the associated models are tested on IEEE 13 bus system. The magnitude of NEV is investigated under various conditions of the number of grounding rods per feeder lengths, the grounding rods resistance and the grounding resistance of the in feeding source. Additionally, the harmonic injection of nonlinear loads has been considered and its influences on NEV under different conditions are shown.

Keywords: NEV, Distribution System, Multi-grounded, Backward/Forward Sweep, Harmonic Analysis

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1486 The Impact of the Number of Neurons in the Hidden Layer on the Performance of MLP Neural Network: Application to the Fast Identification of Toxic Gases

Authors: Slimane Ouhmad, Abdellah Halimi

Abstract:

In this work, neural networks methods MLP type were applied to a database from an array of six sensors for the detection of three toxic gases. The choice of the number of hidden layers and the weight values are influential on the convergence of the learning algorithm. We proposed, in this article, a mathematical formula to determine the optimal number of hidden layers and good weight values based on the method of back propagation of errors. The results of this modeling have improved discrimination of these gases and optimized the computation time. The model presented here has proven to be an effective application for the fast identification of toxic gases.

Keywords: Back-propagation, Computing time, Fast identification, MLP neural network, Number of neurons in the hidden layer.

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1485 Numerical Simulation for Self-Loosening Phenomenon Analysis of Bolt Joint under Vibration

Authors: Long Kim Vu, Ban Dang Nguyen

Abstract:

In this paper, the finite element method (FEM) is utilized to simulate the comprehensive process including tightening, releasing and self-loosening of a bolt joint under transverse vibration. Following to the accurate geometry of helical threads, an absolutely hexahedral meshing is implemented. The accuracy of simulation process is verified and validated by comparison with the experimental results on clamping force-vibration relationship, which shows the sufficient correlation. Further analysis with different amplitude and frequency of transverse vibration is done to determine the dominant factor inducing the failure.

Keywords: Bolt self-loosening, contact state, FEM, transverse vibration.

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1484 Knowledge Acquisition as Determinant of Outputs of Innovative Business in Regions of the Czech Republic

Authors: P. Hajek, J. Stejskal

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to analyze the ability to identify and acquire knowledge from external sources at the regional level in the Czech Republic. The results show that the most important sources of knowledge for innovative activities are sources within the businesses themselves, followed by customers and suppliers. Furthermore, the analysis of relationships between the objective of the innovative activity and the ability to identify and acquire knowledge implies that knowledge obtained from (1) customers aims at replacing outdated products and increasing product quality; (2) suppliers aims at increasing capacity and flexibility of production; and (3) competing businesses aims at growing market share and increasing the flexibility of production and services. Regions should therefore direct their support especially into development and strengthening of networks within the value chain.

Keywords: Knowledge, acquisition, innovative business, Czech republic, region.

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1483 Parameter Estimation for Viewing Rank Distribution of Video-on-Demand

Authors: Hyoup-Sang Yoon

Abstract:

Video-on-demand (VOD) is designed by using content delivery networks (CDN) to minimize the overall operational cost and to maximize scalability. Estimation of the viewing pattern (i.e., the relationship between the number of viewings and the ranking of VOD contents) plays an important role in minimizing the total operational cost and maximizing the performance of the VOD systems. In this paper, we have analyzed a large body of commercial VOD viewing data and found that the viewing rank distribution fits well with the parabolic fractal distribution. The weighted linear model fitting function is used to estimate the parameters (coefficients) of the parabolic fractal distribution. This paper presents an analytical basis for designing an optimal hierarchical VOD contents distribution system in terms of its cost and performance.

Keywords: VOD, CDN, parabolic fractal distribution, viewing rank, weighted linear model fitting

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1482 Valuing Patents on Market Reaction to Patent Infringement Litigations

Authors: Yu J. Chiu, Chia H. Yeh

Abstract:

Innovation is more important in any companies. However, it is not easy to measure the innovation performance correctly. Patent is one of measuring index nowadays. This paper wants to purpose an approach for valuing patents based on market reaction to patent infringement litigations. The interesting phenomenon is found from collection of patent infringement litigation events. That is if any patent litigation event occurs the stock value will follow changing. The plaintiffs- stock value raises some percentage. According to this interesting phenomenon, the relationship between patent litigation and stock value is tested and verified. And then, the stock value variation is used to deduce the infringed patents- value. The purpose of this study is providing another concept model to evaluate the infringed patents. This study can provide a decision assist system to help drafting patent litigation strategy and determine the technology value

Keywords: Patent valuation, infringement litigations, stock value, artificial neural networks.

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1481 Tender Systems and Processes within the Mauritian Construction Industry: Investigating the Predominance of International Firms and the Lack of Absorptive Capacity in Local Firms

Authors: K. Appasamy, P. Paul

Abstract:

Mauritius, a developing small-island-state, is facing a recession which is having a considerable economic impact particularly on its construction sector. Further, the presence of foreign entities, both as companies and workers, within this sector is creating a very competitive environment for local firms. This study investigates the key drivers that allow foreign firms to participate in this sector, in particular looking at the international and local tender processes, and the capacity of local industry to participate. This study also looks at how the current set up may hinder the latter’s involvement. The methodology used included qualitative semi-structured interviews conducted with established foreign companies, local companies, and public bodies. Study findings indicate: there is an adequate availability of professional skills and expertise within the Mauritian construction industry but a lack of skilled labour especially at the operative level; projects awarded to foreign firms are either due to their uniqueness and hence lack of local knowledge, or due to foreign firms having lower tender bids; tendering systems and processes are weak, including monitoring and enforcement, which encourages corruption and favouritism; a high lev el of ignorance of this sector’s characteristics and opportunities exists amongst the local population; local entities are very profit oriented and have short term strategies that discourage long term investment in workforce training and development; but most importantly, stakeholders do not grasp the importance of encouraging youngsters to join this sector, they have no long term vision, and there is a lack of mutual involvement and collaboration between them. Although local industry is highly competent, qualified and experienced, the tendering and procurement systems in Mauritius are not conducive enough to allow for effective strategic planning and an equitable allocation of projects during an economic downturn so that the broadest spread of stakeholders’ benefit. It is of utmost importance that all sector and government entities collaborate to formulate strategies and reforms on tender processes and capacity building to ensure fairness and continuous growth of this sector in Mauritius.

Keywords: Construction industry, tender process, international firms, local capacity, Mauritius.

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1480 Neural Network Based Approach for Face Detection cum Face Recognition

Authors: Kesari Verma, Aniruddha S. Thoke, Pritam Singh

Abstract:

Automatic face detection is a complex problem in image processing. Many methods exist to solve this problem such as template matching, Fisher Linear Discriminate, Neural Networks, SVM, and MRC. Success has been achieved with each method to varying degrees and complexities. In proposed algorithm we used upright, frontal faces for single gray scale images with decent resolution and under good lighting condition. In the field of face recognition technique the single face is matched with single face from the training dataset. The author proposed a neural network based face detection algorithm from the photographs as well as if any test data appears it check from the online scanned training dataset. Experimental result shows that the algorithm detected up to 95% accuracy for any image.

Keywords: Face Detection, Face Recognition, NN Approach, PCA Algorithm.

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1479 Identification of Nonlinear Systems Using Radial Basis Function Neural Network

Authors: C. Pislaru, A. Shebani

Abstract:

This paper uses the radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) for system identification of nonlinear systems. Five nonlinear systems are used to examine the activity of RBFNN in system modeling of nonlinear systems; the five nonlinear systems are dual tank system, single tank system, DC motor system, and two academic models. The feed forward method is considered in this work for modelling the non-linear dynamic models, where the KMeans clustering algorithm used in this paper to select the centers of radial basis function network, because it is reliable, offers fast convergence and can handle large data sets. The least mean square method is used to adjust the weights to the output layer, and Euclidean distance method used to measure the width of the Gaussian function.

Keywords: System identification, Nonlinear system, Neural networks, RBF neural network.

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1478 SCM Challenges and Opportunitiesin the Timber Construction Sector

Authors: K. Reitner, F. Staberhofer, W. Ortner, M. Gerschberger

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to identify the main challenges faced by companies in the timber construction sector and to provide improvement opportunities that can be implemented on a short-, medium- and long-term basis. To identify the challenges and propose actions for each company a literature review and a multiple case research were conducted using the Quick Scan Audit Methodology. Finally, the findings and outcomes are compared with each other to support companies in the timer construction sector when implementing and restructuring their day-to-day activities.

Keywords: Supply chain management, supply chain challenges and opportunities, timber construction sector.

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1477 Link Availability Estimation for Modified AOMDV Protocol

Authors: R. Prabha, N. Ramaraj

Abstract:

Routing in adhoc networks is a challenge as nodes are mobile, and links are constantly created and broken. Present ondemand adhoc routing algorithms initiate route discovery after a path breaks, incurring significant cost to detect disconnection and establish a new route. Specifically, when a path is about to be broken, the source is warned of the likelihood of a disconnection. The source then initiates path discovery early, avoiding disconnection totally. A path is considered about to break when link availability decreases. This study modifies Adhoc On-demand Multipath Distance Vector routing (AOMDV) so that route handoff occurs through link availability estimation.

Keywords: Mobile Adhoc Network (MANET), Routing, Adhoc On-demand Multipath Distance Vector routing (AOMDV), Link Availability.

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1476 The UAV Feasibility Trajectory Prediction Using Convolution Neural Networks

Authors: Marque Adrien, Delahaye Daniel, Marechal Pierre, Berry Isabelle

Abstract:

Wind direction and uncertainty are crucial in aircraft or unmanned aerial vehicle trajectories. By computing wind covariance matrices on each spatial grid point, these spatial grids can be defined as images with symmetric positive definite matrix elements. A data pre-processing step, a specific convolution, a specific max-pooling, and specific flatten layers are implemented to process such images. Then, the neural network is applied to spatial grids, whose elements are wind covariance matrices, to solve classification problems related to the feasibility of unmanned aerial vehicles based on wind direction and wind uncertainty.

Keywords: Wind direction, uncertainty level, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, convolution neural network, SPD matrices.

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1475 Exploring Anti-Western Sentiment Among Arabs and Its Influence on Support for Russia in the Ukraine Conflict

Authors: Soran Tarkhani

Abstract:

The phenomenon of significant Arab support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, despite widespread condemnation from Arab leaders, poses a puzzling scenario. This paper delves into the paradox by employing multiple regression analysis on the online reactions of Arab audiences to the conflict as reported by seven major news networks: CNN Arabic, BBC Arabic, Sky News Arabic, France24 Arabic, DW, Aljazeera, and Al-Arabiya. It hypothesizes that this support stems from prevalent anti-Western sentiment within the Arab world. The empirical findings corroborate the hypothesis, providing insight into the underlying motivations for Arab backing of Russia against Ukraine, despite their historical familiarity with the harsh realities of war.

Keywords: Anti-Western Sentiment, Arab World, Russia-Ukraine Conflict, social media analysis, political sentiment, international relations, regional influence.

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1474 Consumer Choice Determinants in Context of Functional Food

Authors: E. Grochowska-Niedworok, K. Brukało, M. Kardas

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to analyze and evaluate the consumption of functional food by consumers by: age, sex, formal education level, place of residence and diagnosed diseases. The study employed an ad hoc questionnaire in a group of 300 inhabitants of Upper Silesia voivodship. Knowledge of functional food among the group covered in the study was far from satisfactory. The choice of functional food was of intuitive character. In addition, the group covered was more likely to choose pharmacotherapy instead of diet-related prevention then, which can be associated with presumption of too distant effects and a long period of treatment.

Keywords: Consumer choice, consumer knowledge, functional food, healthy lifestyle.

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1473 Investigation of Interference Conditions in BFWA System Applying Adaptive TDD

Authors: Gábor Szládek, Balázs Héder, János Bitó

Abstract:

In a BFWA (Broadband Fixed Wireless Access Network) the evolved SINR (Signal to Interference plus Noise Ratio) is relevant influenced by the applied duplex method. The TDD (Time Division Duplex), especially adaptive TDD method has some advantage contrary to FDD (Frequency Division Duplex), for example the spectrum efficiency and flexibility. However these methods are suffering several new interference situations that can-t occur in a FDD system. This leads to reduced SINR in the covered area what could cause some connection outages. Therefore, countermeasure techniques against interference are necessary to apply in TDD systems. Synchronization is one way to handling the interference. In this paper the TDD systems – applying different system synchronization degree - will be compared by the evolved SINR at different locations of the BFWA service area and the percentage of the covered area by the system.

Keywords: Adaptive TDD, BFWA networks, duplex methods, intra system interferences.

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1472 Trust Building Mechanisms for Electronic Business Networks and Their Relation to eSkills

Authors: Radoslav Delina, Michal Tkáč

Abstract:

Globalization, supported by information and communication technologies, changes the rules of competitiveness and increases the significance of information, knowledge and network cooperation. In line with this trend, the need for efficient trust-building tools has emerged. The absence of trust building mechanisms and strategies was identified within several studies. Through trust development, participation on e-business network and usage of network services will increase and provide to SMEs new economic benefits. This work is focused on effective trust building strategies development for electronic business network platforms. Based on trust building mechanism identification, the questionnairebased analysis of its significance and minimum level of requirements was conducted. In the paper, we are confirming the trust dependency on e-Skills which play crucial role in higher level of trust into the more sophisticated and complex trust building ICT solutions.

Keywords: Correlation analysis, decision trees, e-marketplace, trust building

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1471 Long-Term Deformations of Concrete Structures

Authors: A. Brahma

Abstract:

Drying is a phenomenon that accompanies the hardening of hydraulic materials. This study is concerned the modelling of drying shrinkage of the hydraulic materials and the prediction of the rate of spontaneous deformations of hydraulic materials during hardening. The model developed takes consideration of the main factors affecting drying shrinkage. There was agreement between drying shrinkage predicted by the developed model and experimental results. In last we show that developed model describe the evolution of the drying shrinkage of high performances concretes correctly.

Keywords: Drying, hydraulic concretes, shrinkage, modeling, prediction.

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1470 Frequent and Systematic Timing Enhancement of Congestion Window in Typical Transmission Control Protocol

Authors: Ghassan A. Abed, Akbal O. Salman, Bayan M. Sabbar

Abstract:

Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) among the wired and wireless networks, it still has a practical problem; where the congestion control mechanism does not permit the data stream to get complete bandwidth over the existing network links. To solve this problem, many TCP protocols have been introduced with high speed performance. Therefore, an enhanced congestion window (cwnd) for the congestion control mechanism is proposed in this article to improve the performance of TCP by increasing the number of cycles of the new window to improve the transmitted packet number. The proposed algorithm used a new mechanism based on the available bandwidth of the connection to detect the capacity of network path in order to improve the regular clocking of congestion avoidance mechanism. The work in this paper based on using Network Simulator 2 (NS-2) to simulate the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: TCP, cwnd, Congestion Control, NS-2.

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1469 Quality and Quantity in the Strategic Network of Higher Education Institutions

Authors: Juha Kettunen

Abstract:

This study analyzes the quality and the size of the strategic network of higher education institutions. The study analyses the concept of fitness for purpose in quality assurance. It also analyses the transaction costs of networking that have consequences on the number of members in the network. Empirical evidence is presented of the Consortium on Applied Research and Professional Education, which is a European strategic network of six higher education institutions. The results of the study support the argument that the number of members in the strategic network should be relatively small to provide high quality results. The practical importance is that networking has been able to promote international research and development projects. The results of this study are important for those who want to design and improve international networks in higher education.

Keywords: Higher education, network, research and development, strategic management.

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1468 Comparison of Machine Learning Models for the Prediction of System Marginal Price of Greek Energy Market

Authors: Ioannis P. Panapakidis, Marios N. Moschakis

Abstract:

The Greek Energy Market is structured as a mandatory pool where the producers make their bid offers in day-ahead basis. The System Operator solves an optimization routine aiming at the minimization of the cost of produced electricity. The solution of the optimization problem leads to the calculation of the System Marginal Price (SMP). Accurate forecasts of the SMP can lead to increased profits and more efficient portfolio management from the producer`s perspective. Aim of this study is to provide a comparative analysis of various machine learning models such as artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy models for the prediction of the SMP of the Greek market. Machine learning algorithms are favored in predictions problems since they can capture and simulate the volatilities of complex time series.

Keywords: Deregulated energy market, forecasting, machine learning, system marginal price, energy efficiency and quality.

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