Search results for: Dynamic Error

Authors: A. D'Alessandro, F. Ubertini, A. L. Materazzi

Abstract:

In the field of civil engineering, Structural Health Monitoring is a topic of growing interest. Effective monitoring instruments permit the control of the working conditions of structures and infrastructures, through the identification of behavioral anomalies due to incipient damages, especially in areas of high environmental hazards as earthquakes. While traditional sensors can be applied only in a limited number of points, providing a partial information for a structural diagnosis, novel transducers may allow a diffuse sensing. Thanks to the new tools and materials provided by nanotechnology, new types of multifunctional sensors are developing in the scientific panorama. In particular, cement-matrix composite materials capable of diagnosing their own state of strain and tension, could be originated by the addition of specific conductive nanofillers. Because of the nature of the material they are made of, these new cementitious nano-modified transducers can be inserted within the concrete elements, transforming the same structures in sets of widespread sensors. This paper is aimed at presenting the results of a research about a new self-sensing nanocomposite and about the implementation of smart sensors for Structural Health Monitoring. The developed nanocomposite has been obtained by inserting multi walled carbon nanotubes within a cementitious matrix. The insertion of such conductive carbon nanofillers provides the base material with piezoresistive characteristics and peculiar sensitivity to mechanical modifications. The self-sensing ability is achieved by correlating the variation of the external stress or strain with the variation of some electrical properties, such as the electrical resistance or conductivity. Through the measurement of such electrical characteristics, the performance and the working conditions of an element or a structure can be monitored. Among conductive carbon nanofillers, carbon nanotubes seem to be particularly promising for the realization of self-sensing cement-matrix materials. Some issues related to the nanofiller dispersion or to the influence of the nano-inclusions amount in the cement matrix need to be carefully investigated: the strain sensitivity of the resulting sensors is influenced by such factors. This work analyzes the dispersion of the carbon nanofillers, the physical properties of the fresh dough, the electrical properties of the hardened composites and the sensing properties of the realized sensors. The experimental campaign focuses specifically on their dynamic characterization and their applicability to the monitoring of full-scale elements. The results of the electromechanical tests with both slow varying and dynamic loads show that the developed nanocomposite sensors can be effectively used for the health monitoring of structures.

Keywords: Carbon nanotubes, self-sensing nanocomposites, smart cement-matrix sensors, structural health monitoring.

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Authors: O. Nouali, A. Saidi, H. Chahrat, A. Krinah, B. Toursel

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This article describes a Web pages automatic filtering system. It is an open and dynamic system based on multi agents architecture. This system is built up by a set of agents having each a quite precise filtering task of to carry out (filtering process broken up into several elementary treatments working each one a partial solution). New criteria can be added to the system without stopping its execution or modifying its environment. We want to show applicability and adaptability of the multi-agents approach to the networks information automatic filtering. In practice, most of existing filtering systems are based on modular conception approaches which are limited to centralized applications which role is to resolve static data flow problems. Web pages filtering systems are characterized by a data flow which varies dynamically.

Keywords: Agent, Distributed Artificial Intelligence, Multiagents System, Web pages filtering.

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Authors: L. Chikhani, H. Issa

Abstract:

Objective: this work focuses on bodybuilding as narcissistic inscription of the relational dynamic of the ego and the body, in this sense we think that this symptomatic adolescent act highlights a defective image of the body, leading, by a sadistic passage exercized on the split body, to an Ego/body-ideal. Method: Semi structured interviews with 16 adolescents between 15 and 18 years old allowed us to highlight a lexical field related to the body and the excessiveness in sports;also, the administration of TAT to a bodybuilder (17 years old) for more than 2 years. Results: - Defectiveness in the structuration of the body image; the future bodybuilder will be fixated to the image of the narcissistic misrecognition. - Unsatisfying object relation, implicating incompleteness in the process of subjectivation. - Narcissistic and corporealizedego ideal leading the adolescent to a sadistic pathology directed toward one-s own body as a compensatory defense.

Keywords: Bodybuilding, body image, narcissism, object relation.

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Authors: A. Jomartov, K. Jomartova

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One of the main and responsible units of Sulzer projectile loom is picking mechanism. It is specifically designed to accelerate projectile to speed of 25 m / s. Initial speed projectile of Sulzer projectile loom is independent of speed loom and determined the potential energy torsion rod. This paper investigates the dynamics picking mechanism of Sulzer projectile loom during its discharge. A result of calculation model, we obtain the law of motion lever of picking mechanism during its discharge. Construction of dynamic model the picking mechanism of Sulzer projectile loom on software complex SimulationX can make calculations for different thickness of torsion rods taking into account the backlashes in the connections, the dissipative forces and resistance forces

Keywords: Dynamics, loom, picking mechanism, projectile, SimulationX.

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Authors: Sumit Kumar, Sunil Kumar, Chandan Deep Singh

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This paper presents modeling and simulation of flexible robot in an underwater environment. The underwater environment completely contrasts with ground or space environment. The robot in an underwater situation is subjected to various dynamic forces like buoyancy forces, hydrostatic and hydrodynamic forces. The underwater robot is modeled as Rayleigh beam. The developed model further allows estimating the deflection of tip in two directions. The complete dynamics of the underwater robot is analyzed, which is the main focus of this investigation. The control of robot trajectory is not discussed in this paper. Simulation is performed using Symbol Shakti software.

Keywords: Bond graph modeling, dynamics. modeling, Rayleigh beam, underwater robot.

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Authors: S. K. Satpathy, S. Panda, K. K. Nagwanshi, S. K. Nayak, C. Ardil

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Removing noise from the any processed images is very important. Noise should be removed in such a way that important information of image should be preserved. A decisionbased nonlinear algorithm for elimination of band lines, drop lines, mark, band lost and impulses in images is presented in this paper. The algorithm performs two simultaneous operations, namely, detection of corrupted pixels and evaluation of new pixels for replacing the corrupted pixels. Removal of these artifacts is achieved without damaging edges and details. However, the restricted window size renders median operation less effective whenever noise is excessive in that case the proposed algorithm automatically switches to mean filtering. The performance of the algorithm is analyzed in terms of Mean Square Error [MSE], Peak-Signal-to-Noise Ratio [PSNR], Signal-to-Noise Ratio Improved [SNRI], Percentage Of Noise Attenuated [PONA], and Percentage Of Spoiled Pixels [POSP]. This is compared with standard algorithms already in use and improved performance of the proposed algorithm is presented. The advantage of the proposed algorithm is that a single algorithm can replace several independent algorithms which are required for removal of different artifacts.

Keywords: Filtering, Decision Based Algorithm, noise, imagerestoration.

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Authors: Worachat Wannawong, Usa W. Humphries, Prungchan Wongwises, Suphat Vongvisessomjai, Wiriya Lueangaram

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A numerical analysis of wave and hydrodynamic models is used to investigate the influence of WAve and Storm Surge (WASS) in the regional and coastal zones. The numerical analyzed system consists of the WAve Model Cycle 4 (WAMC4) and the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) which used to solve the energy balance and primitive equations respectively. The results of both models presented the incorporated surface wave in the regional zone affected the coastal storm surge zone. Specifically, the results indicated that the WASS generally under the approximation is not only the peak surge but also the coastal water level drop which can also cause substantial impact on the coastal environment. The wave–induced surface stress affected the storm surge can significantly improve storm surge prediction. Finally, the calibration of wave module according to the minimum error of the significant wave height (Hs) is not necessarily result in the optimum wave module in the WASS analyzed system for the WASS prediction.

Keywords: energy balance equation, numerical analysis, primitiveequation, storm surge, wave.

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Authors: Marjan Kuchaki Rafsanjani, Ali Movaghar, Faroukh Koroupi

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As mobile ad hoc networks (MANET) have different characteristics from wired networks and even from standard wireless networks, there are new challenges related to security issues that need to be addressed. Due to its unique features such as open nature, lack of infrastructure and central management, node mobility and change of dynamic topology, prevention methods from attacks on them are not enough. Therefore intrusion detection is one of the possible ways in recognizing a possible attack before the system could be penetrated. All in all, techniques for intrusion detection in old wireless networks are not suitable for MANET. In this paper, we classify the architecture for Intrusion detection systems that have so far been introduced for MANETs, and then existing intrusion detection techniques in MANET presented and compared. We then indicate important future research directions.

Keywords: Intrusion Detection System(IDS), Misbehavingnodes, Mobile Ad Hoc Network(MANET), Security.

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Authors: Surinder Deswal, Mahesh Pal

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An Artificial Neural Network based modeling technique has been used to study the influence of different combinations of meteorological parameters on evaporation from a reservoir. The data set used is taken from an earlier reported study. Several input combination were tried so as to find out the importance of different input parameters in predicting the evaporation. The prediction accuracy of Artificial Neural Network has also been compared with the accuracy of linear regression for predicting evaporation. The comparison demonstrated superior performance of Artificial Neural Network over linear regression approach. The findings of the study also revealed the requirement of all input parameters considered together, instead of individual parameters taken one at a time as reported in earlier studies, in predicting the evaporation. The highest correlation coefficient (0.960) along with lowest root mean square error (0.865) was obtained with the input combination of air temperature, wind speed, sunshine hours and mean relative humidity. A graph between the actual and predicted values of evaporation suggests that most of the values lie within a scatter of ±15% with all input parameters. The findings of this study suggest the usefulness of ANN technique in predicting the evaporation losses from reservoirs.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, evaporation losses, multiple linear regression, modeling.

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Authors: Israa Al-Neami, Ali J. Al-Askery, Martin Johnston, Charalampos Tsimenidis

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In this paper, we focus on the design of a multi-line copper wire (MLCW) communication system. First, we construct our proposed MLCW channel and verify its characteristics based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. In addition, we apply Middleton class A impulsive noise (IN) to the copper channel for further investigation. Second, the MIMO G.fast system is adopted utilizing the proposed MLCW channel model and is compared to a single line G-fast system. Second, the performance of the coded system is obtained utilizing concatenated interleaved Reed-Solomon (RS) code with four-dimensional trellis-coded modulation (4D TCM), and compared to the single line G-fast system. Simulations are obtained for high quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) constellations that are commonly used with G-fast communications, the results demonstrate that the bit error rate (BER) performance of the coded MLCW system shows an improvement compared to the single line G-fast systems.

Keywords: G.fast, Middleton Class A impulsive noise, mitigation techniques, copper channel Model.

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Authors: M. Tahar Bouzaher

Abstract:

This study involves numerical simulation of the flow around a NACA2415 airfoil, with a 18° angle of attack, and flow separation control using a rod, It involves putting a cylindrical rod - upstream of the leading edge- in vertical translation movement in order to accelerate the transition of the boundary layer by interaction between the rod wake and the boundary layer. The viscous, nonstationary flow is simulated using ANSYS FLUENT 13. The rod movement is reproduced using the dynamic mesh technique and an in-house developed UDF (User Define Function). The frequency varies from 75 to 450 Hz and the considered amplitudes are 2%, and 3% of the foil chord. The frequency chosen closed to the frequency of separation. Our results showed a substantial modification in the flow behavior and a maximum drag reduction of 61%.

Keywords: CFD, Flow separation, Active control, Boundary layer, rod, NACA 2415.

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Authors: Nagaraj V. Dharwadkar, B.B.Amberker

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In this paper, a new secure watermarking scheme for color image is proposed. It splits the watermark into two shares using (2, 2)- threshold Visual Cryptography Scheme (V CS) with Adaptive Order Dithering technique and embeds one share into high textured subband of Luminance channel of the color image. The other share is used as the key and is available only with the super-user or the author of the image. In this scheme only the super-user can reveal the original watermark. The proposed scheme is dynamic in the sense that to maintain the perceptual similarity between the original and the watermarked image the selected subband coefficients are modified by varying the watermark scaling factor. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme. Further, the proposed scheme is able to resist all common attacks even with strong amplitude.

Keywords: VCS, Dithering, HVS, DWT.

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Authors: Wang Zhan-Xi, Zhang Yi-Ming, Chen Hang, Wang Gang

Abstract:

Manual polishing has problems such as high labor intensity, low production efficiency and difficulty in guaranteeing the consistency of polishing quality. The use of robot polishing instead of manual polishing can effectively avoid these problems. Polishing force directly affects the quality of polishing, so accurate tracking and control of polishing force is one of the most important conditions for improving the accuracy of robot polishing. The traditional force control strategy is difficult to adapt to the strong coupling of force control and position control during the robot polishing process. Therefore, based on the analysis of force-based impedance control and position-based impedance control, this paper proposed a type of adaptive controller. Based on force feedback control of active compliance control, the controller can adaptively estimate the stiffness and position of the external environment and eliminate the steady-state force error produced by traditional impedance control. The simulation results of the model show that the adaptive controller has good adaptability to changing environmental positions and environmental stiffness, and can accurately track and control polishing force.

Keywords: robot polishing, force feedback, impedance control, adaptive control

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Authors: Mahamed G.H. Omran, Andries P Engelbrecht, Ayed Salman

Abstract:

An end-member selection method for spectral unmixing that is based on Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is developed in this paper. The algorithm uses the K-means clustering algorithm and a method of dynamic selection of end-members subsets to find the appropriate set of end-members for a given set of multispectral images. The proposed algorithm has been successfully applied to test image sets from various platforms such as LANDSAT 5 MSS and NOAA's AVHRR. The experimental results of the proposed algorithm are encouraging. The influence of different values of the algorithm control parameters on performance is studied. Furthermore, the performance of different versions of PSO is also investigated.

Keywords: End-members selection, multispectral satellite imagery, particle swarm optimization, spectral unmixing.

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Authors: M. S. Merzoug, F. Naceri

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This paper presents a comparative study on two most popular control strategies for Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor (PMSM) drives: field-oriented control (FOC) and direct torque control (DTC). The comparison is based on various criteria including basic control characteristics, dynamic performance, and implementation complexity. The study is done by simulation using the Simulink Power System Blockset that allows a complete representation of the power section (inverter and PMSM) and the control system. The simulation and evaluation of both control strategies are performed using actual parameters of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor fed by an IGBT PWM inverter.

Keywords: PMSM, FOC, DTC, hysteresis, PWM.

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Authors: Laurenţiu Militeanu, Cristina Gena Dascâlu, D. Cristea

Abstract:

The human head representations usually are based on the morphological – structural components of a real model. Over the time became more and more necessary to achieve full virtual models that comply very rigorous with the specifications of the human anatomy. Still, making and using a model perfectly fitted with the real anatomy is a difficult task, because it requires large hardware resources and significant times for processing. That is why it is necessary to choose the best compromise solution, which keeps the right balance between the details perfection and the resources consumption, in order to obtain facial animations with real-time rendering. We will present here the way in which we achieved such a 3D system that we intend to use as a base point in order to create facial animations with real-time rendering, used in medicine to find and to identify different types of pathologies.

Keywords: 3D models, virtual reality.

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Authors: B. R. Tapas Bapu, K. Thanigaivelu, A. Rajkumar

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Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) have wide variety of applications and provide limitless future potentials. Nodes in WSNs are prone to failure due to energy depletion, hardware failure, communication link errors, malicious attacks, and so on. Therefore, fault tolerance is one of the critical issues in WSNs. We study how fault tolerance is addressed in different applications of WSNs. Fault tolerant routing is a critical task for sensor networks operating in dynamic environments. Many routing, power management, and data dissemination protocols have been specifically designed for WSNs where energy awareness is an essential design issue. The focus, however, has been given to the routing protocols which might differ depending on the application and network architecture.

Keywords: Resiliency, Self-diagnosis, Smart Grid, TinyOS, WSANs.

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Authors: Wang Chengcheng, Li Chuanri, Xu Fei, Guo Ying

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Aiming at most of the aviation products are facing the problem of fatigue fracture in vibration environment, we makes use of the testing result of a bracket, analysis for the structure with ANSYS-Workbench, predict the life of the bracket by different ways, and compared with the testing result. With the research on analysis methods, make an organic combination of simulation analysis and testing, Not only ensure the accuracy of simulation analysis and life predict, but also make a dynamic supervision of product life process, promote the application of finite element simulation analysis in engineering practice.

Keywords: Random vibration, finite element simulation, fatigue, frequency domain.

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Authors: K. Krizova, R. Hela, S. Keprdova

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This paper introduces selected composition of conventional concretes and their resulting mechanical properties at different ages of concrete. With respect to utilization of mineral admixtures, fly ash and ground limestone agents were included in addition to pure Portland binder. The proposal of concrete composition remained constant in basic concrete components such as cement and representation of individual contents of aggregate fractions; weight dosing of admixtures and water dose were only modified. Water dose was chosen in order to achieve identical consistence by settlement for all proposals of concrete composition. Mechanical properties monitored include compression strength, static and dynamic modulus of concrete elasticity, at ages of 7, 28, 90, and 180 days.

Keywords: Cement, mineral admixtures, microstructure of concrete, mechanical properties.

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Authors: B. G. Sampath, K. C. R. Perera, W. A. S. I. Wijesuriya, V. P. C. Dassanayake

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In this paper the design, development and testing of a stabilizer control system for a Quad-rotor is presented which is focused on the maneuverability. The mechanical design is performed along with the design of the controlling algorithm which is devised using fuzzy logic controller. The inputs for the system are the angular positions and angular rates of the Quad-rotor relative to three axes. Then the output data is filtered from an accelerometer and a gyroscope through a Kalman filter. In the development of the stability controlling system Mandani fuzzy model is incorporated. The results prove that the fuzzy based stabilizer control system is superior in high dynamic disturbances compared to the traditional systems which use PID integrated stabilizer control systems.

Keywords: Fuzzy stabilizer, maneuverability, PID, Quad-rotor.

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Authors: Naci Kalkan, Ihsan Dagtekin

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This research presents the design and analysis of solar air-conditioning systems particularly solar chimney which is a passive strategy for natural ventilation, and demonstrates the structures of these systems’ using Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) and finally compares the results with several examples, which have been studied experimentally and carried out previously. In order to improve the performance of solar chimney system, highly efficient sub-system components are considered for the design. The general purpose of the research is to understand how efficiently solar chimney systems generate cooling, and is to improve the efficient of such systems for integration with existing and future domestic buildings.

Keywords: Solar cooling system, solar chimney, active and passive solar technologies, natural ventilation, cavity depth, CFD models for solar chimney.

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Authors: Naim Suleyman Ting, Yakup Sahin, Ismail Aksoy

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This paper presents a zero voltage transition-zero current transition (ZVT-ZCT)-PWM DC-DC boost converter with direct power transfer. In this converter, the main switch turns on with ZVT and turns off with ZCT. The auxiliary switch turns on and off with zero current switching (ZCS). The main diode turns on with ZVS and turns off with ZCS. Besides, the additional current or voltage stress does not occur on the main device. The converter has features as simple structure, fast dynamic response and easy control. Also, the proposed converter has direct power transfer feature as well as excellent soft switching techniques. In this study, the operating principle of the converter is presented and its operation is verified for 1 kW and 100 kHz model.

Keywords: Direct power transfer, boost converter, zero-voltage transition, zero-current transition.

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Authors: Jin-Sung Kim, Jin-Hwan Kim, Ji-Mo Park, Sung-Man Park, Won-Yong Choe, Hoon Heo

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An optimal control of Reverse Osmosis (RO) plant is studied in this paper utilizing the auto tuning concept in conjunction with PID controller. A control scheme composing an auto tuning stochastic technique based on an improved Genetic Algorithm (GA) is proposed. For better evaluation of the process in GA, objective function defined newly in sense of root mean square error has been used. Also in order to achieve better performance of GA, more pureness and longer period of random number generation in operation are sought. The main improvement is made by replacing the uniform distribution random number generator in conventional GA technique to newly designed hybrid random generator composed of Cauchy distribution and linear congruential generator, which provides independent and different random numbers at each individual steps in Genetic operation. The performance of newly proposed GA tuned controller is compared with those of conventional ones via simulation.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Auto tuning, Hybrid random number generator, Reverse Osmosis, PID controller

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Authors: Saad Nahi Saleh

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This paper presents the prediction of air flow, humidity and temperature patterns in a co-current pilot plant spray dryer fitted with a pressure nozzle using a three dimensional model. The modelling was done with a Computational Fluid Dynamic package (Fluent 6.3), in which the gas phase is modelled as continuum using the Euler approach and the droplet/ particle phase is modelled by the Discrete Phase model (Lagrange approach).Good agreement was obtained with published experimental data where the CFD simulation correctly predicts a fast downward central flowing core and slow recirculation zones near the walls. In this work, the effects of the air flow pattern on droplets trajectories, residence time distribution of droplets and deposition of the droplets on the wall also were investigated where atomizing of maltodextrin solution was used.

Keywords: Spray, CFD, multiphase, drying, droplet, particle.

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Authors: Cristian F.T. Montenegro, Luís F. N. Lourenço, Maurício B. C. Salles, Renato M. Monaro

Abstract:

More PV systems have been connected to the electrical network each year. As the number of PV systems increases, some issues affecting grid operations have been identified. This paper studied the impacts related to changes in solar irradiance on a distribution/sub-transmission network, considering variations due to moving clouds and daily cycles. Using MATLAB/Simulink software, a solar farm of 30 MWp was built and then implemented to a test network. From simulations, it has been determined that irradiance changes can have a significant impact on the grid by causing voltage fluctuations outside the allowable thresholds. This work discussed some local control strategies and grid reinforcements to mitigate the negative effects of the irradiance changes on the grid.

Keywords: Utility-scale PV systems, reactive power control, solar irradiance, voltage fluctuation.

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Authors: A. Nuric, S. Nuric, L. Kricak, I. Lapandic, R. Husagic

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This paper describes topic of computer simulation with regard to the ground movement above an underground mine. Simulation made with software package ADINA for nonlinear elastic-plastic analysis with finite elements method. The one of representative profiles from Mine 'Stara Jama' in Zenica has been investigated. A collection and selection of both geo-mechanical data and geometric parameters of the mine was necessary for performing these simulations. Results of estimation have been compared with measured values (vertical displacement of surface), and then simulation performed with assumed dynamic and dimensions of excavation, over a period of time. Results are presented with bitmaps and charts.

Keywords: Computer, finite element method, mine, nonlinear analysis, numerical modeling, simulation, subsidence.

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Authors: Randa I. Elanwar, Mohsen A. Rashwan, Samia A. Mashali

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The last two decades witnessed some advances in the development of an Arabic character recognition (CR) system. Arabic CR faces technical problems not encountered in any other language that make Arabic CR systems achieve relatively low accuracy and retards establishing them as market products. We propose the basic stages towards a system that attacks the problem of recognizing online Arabic cursive handwriting. Rule-based methods are used to perform simultaneous segmentation and recognition of word portions in an unconstrained cursively handwritten document using dynamic programming. The output of these stages is in the form of a ranked list of the possible decisions. A new technique for text line separation is also used.

Keywords: Arabic handwriting, character recognition, cursive handwriting, on-line recognition.

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Authors: Chiung-Hui Chen

Abstract:

Diagram and drawing are important ways to communicate and the reproduce of architectural design, Due to the development of information and communication technology, the professional thinking of architecture and interior design are also change rapidly. In development process of design, diagram always play very important role. This study is based on diagram theories, observe and record interaction between man and objects, objects and space, and space and time in a modern nuclear family. Construct a method for diagram to systematically and visualized describe the space plan of a modern nuclear family toward an intelligent design, to assist designer to retrieve information and review event pattern of past and present.

Keywords: Digital diagram, information model, context aware, data analysis.

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Authors: Hamdi Amroun, Yacine Benziani, Mehdi Ammi

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In this paper, we want to determine whether the accurate prediction of nicotine concentration can be obtained by using a network of smart objects and an e-cigarette. The approach consists of, first, the recognition of factors influencing smoking cessation such as physical activity recognition and participant’s behaviors (using both smartphone and smartwatch), then the prediction of the configuration of the e-cigarette (in terms of nicotine concentration, power, and resistance of e-cigarette). The study uses a network of commonly connected objects; a smartwatch, a smartphone, and an e-cigarette transported by the participants during an uncontrolled experiment. The data obtained from sensors carried in the three devices were trained by a Long short-term memory algorithm (LSTM). Results show that our LSTM-based model allows predicting the configuration of the e-cigarette in terms of nicotine concentration, power, and resistance with a root mean square error percentage of 12.9%, 9.15%, and 11.84%, respectively. This study can help to better control consumption of nicotine and offer an intelligent configuration of the e-cigarette to users.

Keywords: Iot, activity recognition, automatic classification, unconstrained environment, deep neural networks.

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Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

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River flow prediction is an essential tool to ensure proper management of water resources and the optimal distribution of water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method with monthly river flow data for Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The reconstruction of phase space involves the reconstruction of one-dimension (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. The revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) was employed to compare prediction performance for the nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show that the prediction results using the nonlinear prediction method are better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the results of this study could be used to develop an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation of water resources.

Keywords: River flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation.

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