Search results for: Numerical methods
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5996

Search results for: Numerical methods

4166 Inexact Alternating Direction Method for Variational Inequality Problems with Linear Equality Constraints

Authors: Min Sun, Jing Liu

Abstract:

In this article, a new inexact alternating direction method(ADM) is proposed for solving a class of variational inequality problems. At each iteration, the new method firstly solves the resulting subproblems of ADM approximately to generate an temporal point ˜xk, and then the multiplier yk is updated to get the new iterate yk+1. In order to get xk+1, we adopt a new descent direction which is simple compared with the existing prediction-correction type ADMs. For the inexact ADM, the resulting proximal subproblem has closedform solution when the proximal parameter and inexact term are chosen appropriately. We show the efficiency of the inexact ADM numerically by some preliminary numerical experiments.

Keywords: variational inequality problems, alternating direction method, global convergence

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4165 Three-Dimensional Generalized Thermoelasticity with Variable Thermal Conductivity

Authors: Hamdy M. Youssef, Mowffaq Oreijah, Hunaydi S. Alsharif

Abstract:

In this paper, a three-dimensional model of the generalized thermoelasticity with one relaxation time and variable thermal conductivity has been constructed. The resulting non-dimensional governing equations together with the Laplace and double Fourier transforms techniques have been applied to a three-dimensional half-space subjected to thermal loading with rectangular pulse and traction free in the directions of the principle co-ordinates. The inverses of double Fourier transforms, and Laplace transforms have been obtained numerically. Numerical results for the temperature increment, the invariant stress, the invariant strain, and the displacement are represented graphically. The variability of the thermal conductivity has significant effects on the thermal and the mechanical waves.

Keywords: Thermoelasticity, three-dimensional, Laplace transforms, Fourier transforms, thermal conductivity.

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4164 A Study on Neural Network Training Algorithm for Multiface Detection in Static Images

Authors: Zulhadi Zakaria, Nor Ashidi Mat Isa, Shahrel A. Suandi

Abstract:

This paper reports the study results on neural network training algorithm of numerical optimization techniques multiface detection in static images. The training algorithms involved are scale gradient conjugate backpropagation, conjugate gradient backpropagation with Polak-Riebre updates, conjugate gradient backpropagation with Fletcher-Reeves updates, one secant backpropagation and resilent backpropagation. The final result of each training algorithms for multiface detection application will also be discussed and compared.

Keywords: training algorithm, multiface, static image, neural network

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4163 Mixed Convective Heat Transfer in Water-Based Al2O3 Nanofluid in Horizontal Rectangular Duct

Authors: Nur Irmawati, H.A. Mohammed

Abstract:

In the present study, mixed convection in a horizontal rectangular duct using Al2O3 is numerically investigated. The effects of different Rayleigh number, Reynolds number and radiation on flow and heat transfer characteristics are studied in detail. This study covers Rayleigh number in the range of 2 × 10^6 ≤ Ra ≤ 2 × 10^7 and Reynolds number in the range of 100 ≤ Re ≤ 1100. Results reveal that the Nusselt number increases as Reynolds and Rayleigh numbers increase. It is also found that the dimensionless temperature distribution increases as Rayleigh number increases.

Keywords: Numerical simulation, Mixed convection, Horizontal rectangular duct, Nanofluids.

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4162 Impacts of Biofuels on Air Quality: Northern Portugal Case Study

Authors: Ribeiro I., Tavares A.M., Sá E., Lopes M.

Abstract:

The increased use of biodiesel implies variations on both greenhouse gases and air pollutant emissions. Some studies point out that the use of biodiesel blends on diesel can help in controlling air pollution and promote a reduction of CO2 emissions. Reductions on PM, SO2, VOC and CO emissions are also expected, however NOx emissions may increase, which may potentiate O3 formation. This work aims to assess the impact of the biodiesel use on air quality, through a numerical modeling study, taking the Northern region of Portugal as a case study. The emission scenarios are focused on 2008 (baseline year) and 2020 (target year of Renewable Energy Directive-RED) and on three biodiesel blends (B0, B10 and B20). In a general way the use of biodiesel by 2020 will reduce the CO2 and air pollutants emissions in the Northern Portugal, improving air quality. However it will be in a very small extension.

Keywords: air quality, biodiesel, emission scenarios, RED.

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4161 Overhead Estimation over Capacity of Mobile WiMAX

Authors: Saeed AL-Rashdy, Qing Guo

Abstract:

The IEEE802.16 standard which has emerged as Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) technology, promises to deliver high data rate over large areas to a large number of subscribers in the near future. This paper analyze the effect of overheads over capacity of downlink (DL) of orthogonal frequency division multiple access (OFDMA)–based on the IEEE802.16e mobile WiMAX system with and without overheads. The analysis focuses in particular on the impact of Adaptive Modulation and Coding (AMC) as well as deriving an algorithm to determine the maximum numbers of subscribers that each specific WiMAX sector may support. An analytical study of the WiMAX propagation channel by using Cost- 231 Hata Model is presented. Numerical results and discussion estimated by using Matlab to simulate the algorithm for different multi-users parameters.

Keywords: BWA, mobile WiMAX, capacity, AMC , overheads.

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4160 All-Optical Function Based on Self-Similar Spectral Broadening for 2R Regeneration in High-Bit-Rate Optical Transmission Systems

Authors: Leila Graini

Abstract:

In this paper, we demonstrate basic all-optical functions for 2R regeneration (Re-amplification and Re-shaping) based on self-similar spectral broadening in low normal dispersion and highly nonlinear fiber (ND-HNLF) to regenerate the signal through optical filtering including the transfer function characteristics, and output extinction ratio. Our approach of all-optical 2R regeneration is based on those of Mamyshev. The numerical study reveals the self-similar spectral broadening very effective for 2R all-optical regeneration; the proposed design presents high stability compared to a conventional regenerator using SPM broadening with reduction of the intensity fluctuations and improvement of the extinction ratio.

Keywords: All-optical function, 2R optical regeneration, self-similar broadening, Mamyshev regenerator.

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4159 Generalized Mean-field Theory of Phase Unwrapping via Multiple Interferograms

Authors: Yohei Saika

Abstract:

On the basis of Bayesian inference using the maximizer of the posterior marginal estimate, we carry out phase unwrapping using multiple interferograms via generalized mean-field theory. Numerical calculations for a typical wave-front in remote sensing using the synthetic aperture radar interferometry, phase diagram in hyper-parameter space clarifies that the present method succeeds in phase unwrapping perfectly under the constraint of surface- consistency condition, if the interferograms are not corrupted by any noises. Also, we find that prior is useful for extending a phase in which phase unwrapping under the constraint of the surface-consistency condition. These results are quantitatively confirmed by the Monte Carlo simulation.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, generalized mean-field theory, phase unwrapping, statistical mechanics.

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4158 The Role of the Studs Configuration in the Structural Response of Composite Bridges

Authors: M. M. Mohammadi Dehnavi, A. De Angelis, M. R. Pecce

Abstract:

This paper deals with the role of studs in structural response for steel-concrete composite beams. A tri-linear slip-shear strength law is assumed according to literature and codes provisions for developing a finite element (FE) model of a case study of a composite deck. The variation of the strength and ductility of the connection is implemented in the numerical model carrying out nonlinear analyses. The results confirm the utility of the model to evaluate the importance of the studs capacity, ductility and strength, on the global response (ductility and strength) of the structures but also to analyse the trend of slip and shear at interface along the beams.

Keywords: Shear Load, slip, steel-concrete composite bridge, stud connectors.

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4157 An Analysis of Global Stability of a Class of Neutral-Type Neural Systems with Time Delays

Authors: Ozlem Faydasicok, Sabri Arik

Abstract:

This paper derives some new sufficient conditions for the stability of a class of neutral-type neural networks with discrete time delays by employing a suitable Lyapunov functional. The obtained conditions can be easily verified as they can be expressed in terms of the network parameters only. It is shown that the results presented in this paper for neutral-type delayed neural networks establish a new set of stability criteria, and therefore can be considered as the alternative results to the previously published literature results. A numerical example is also given to demonstrate the applicability of our proposed stability criterion.

Keywords: Stability Analysis, Neutral-Type Neural Networks, Time Delay Systems, Lyapunov Functionals.

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4156 Numerical Treatment of Block Method for the Solution of Ordinary Differential Equations

Authors: A. M. Sagir

Abstract:

Discrete linear multistep block method of uniform order for the solution of first order initial value problems (IVP­s­) in ordinary differential equations (ODE­s­) is presented in this paper. The approach of interpolation and collocation approximation are adopted in the derivation of the method which is then applied to first order ordinary differential equations with associated initial conditions. The continuous hybrid formulations enable us to differentiate and evaluate at some grids and off – grid points to obtain four discrete schemes, which were used in block form for parallel or sequential solutions of the problems. Furthermore, a stability analysis and efficiency of the block method are tested on ordinary differential equations, and the results obtained compared favorably with the exact solution.

Keywords: Block Method, First Order Ordinary Differential Equations, Hybrid, Self starting.

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4155 An Efficient Fall Detection Method for Elderly Care System

Authors: S. Sowmyayani, P. Arockia Jansi Rani

Abstract:

Fall detection is one of the challenging problems in elderly care system. The objective of this paper is to identify falls in elderly care system. In this paper, an efficient fall detection method is proposed to identify falls using correlation factor and Motion History Image (MHI). The proposed method is tested on URF (University of Rzeszow Fall detection) dataset and evaluated with some efficient measures like sensitivity, specificity, precision and classification accuracy. It is compared with other recent methods. The experimental results substantially proved that the proposed method achieves 1.5% higher sensitivity when compared to other methods.

Keywords: Pearson correlation coefficient, motion history image, human shape identification.

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4154 Evaluation of Optimal Transfer Capability in Power System Interconnection

Authors: Jin-O Kim, Hyun-Il Son

Abstract:

As the electrical power industry is restructured, the electrical power exchange is becoming extended. One of the key information used to determine how much power can be transferred through the network is known as available transfer capability (ATC). To calculate ATC, traditional deterministic approach is based on the severest case, but the approach has the complexity of procedure. Therefore, novel approach for ATC calculation is proposed using cost-optimization method in this paper, and is compared with well-being method and risk-benefit method. This paper proposes the optimal transfer capability of HVDC system between mainland and a separated island in Korea through these three methods. These methods will consider production cost, wheeling charge through HVDC system and outage cost with one depth (N-1 contingency)

Keywords: ATC, power system interconnection, well-being method, cost-optimization method, risk-benefit analysis, outage cost.

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4153 Use of Plant Antimicrobials for Food Preservation

Authors: Oladotun A. Fatoki, Deborah A. Onifade

Abstract:

Spoilage occurs in plant produce due to the action of field and storage microorganisms. The conditions of storage can also cause physiological spoilage. Various methods exist to ensure that these food substances maintain their quality long after harvesting. However, many of these methods either fail to keep the plant for the required period or predispose the plant to other spoilage risks. The major shortcoming posed by the use of many antimicrobials is the chemical residues it deposits in the food substance. The use of plants in preservation has been in use for a long period, though little understood then, it served its purposes. A better understanding of the roles of these plant parts in increasing the shelf life of farm produce has helped in the creation of more effective and safer means of pest and microbial control. This can be extended to plants that have not been used for these purposes initially. Microbial sources should also be investigated as these have provided cheaper sources of secondary metabolites.

Keywords: Antimicrobials, Food preservation, Phytochemicals

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4152 Synchronization for Impulsive Fuzzy Cohen-Grossberg Neural Networks with Time Delays under Noise Perturbation

Authors: Changzhao Li, Juan Zhang

Abstract:

In this paper, we investigate a class of fuzzy Cohen- Grossberg neural networks with time delays and impulsive effects. By virtue of stochastic analysis, Halanay inequality for stochastic differential equations, we find sufficient conditions for the global exponential square-mean synchronization of the FCGNNs under noise perturbation. In particular, the traditional assumption on the differentiability of the time-varying delays is no longer needed. Finally, a numerical example is given to show the effectiveness of the results in this paper.

Keywords: Fuzzy Cohen-Grossberg neural networks (FCGNNs), complete synchronization, time delays, impulsive, noise perturbation.

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4151 Cantor Interpolating Spline to Design Electronic Mail Boxes

Authors: Adil Al-Rammahi

Abstract:

Electronic mail is very important in present time. Many researchers work for designing, improving, securing, fasting, goodness and others fields in electronic mail. This paper introduced new algorithm to use Cantor sets and cubic spline interpolating function in the electronic mail design. Cantor sets used as the area (or domain) of the mail, while spline function used for designing formula. The roots of spline function versus Cantor sets used as the controller admin. The roots calculated by the numerical Newton – Raphson's method. The result of this algorithm was promised.

Keywords: Cantor sets, spline, electronic mail design, Newton – Raphson's method.

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4150 Defining of the Shape of the Spine Using Moiré Method in Case of Patients with Scheuermann Disease

Authors: Petra Balla, Gabor Manhertz, Akos Antal

Abstract:

Nowadays spinal deformities are very frequent problems among teenagers. Scheuermann disease is a one dimensional deformity of the spine, but it has prevalence over 11% of the children. A traditional technology, the moiré method was used by us for screening and diagnosing this type of spinal deformity. A LabVIEW program has been developed to evaluate the moiré pictures of patients with Scheuermann disease. Two different solutions were tested in this computer program, the extreme and the inflexion point calculation methods. Effects using these methods were compared and according to the results both solutions seemed to be appropriate. Statistical results showed better efficiency in case of the extreme search method where the average difference was only 6,09⁰.

Keywords: Spinal deformity, picture evaluation, moiré method, Scheuermann disease, curve detection, moiré topography.

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4149 Model Discovery and Validation for the Qsar Problem using Association Rule Mining

Authors: Luminita Dumitriu, Cristina Segal, Marian Craciun, Adina Cocu, Lucian P. Georgescu

Abstract:

There are several approaches in trying to solve the Quantitative 1Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) problem. These approaches are based either on statistical methods or on predictive data mining. Among the statistical methods, one should consider regression analysis, pattern recognition (such as cluster analysis, factor analysis and principal components analysis) or partial least squares. Predictive data mining techniques use either neural networks, or genetic programming, or neuro-fuzzy knowledge. These approaches have a low explanatory capability or non at all. This paper attempts to establish a new approach in solving QSAR problems using descriptive data mining. This way, the relationship between the chemical properties and the activity of a substance would be comprehensibly modeled.

Keywords: association rules, classification, data mining, Quantitative Structure - Activity Relationship.

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4148 Identifying Autism Spectrum Disorder Using Optimization-Based Clustering

Authors: Sharifah Mousli, Sona Taheri, Jiayuan He

Abstract:

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a complex developmental condition involving persistent difficulties with social communication, restricted interests, and repetitive behavior. The challenges associated with ASD can interfere with an affected individual’s ability to function in social, academic, and employment settings. Although there is no effective medication known to treat ASD, to our best knowledge, early intervention can significantly improve an affected individual’s overall development. Hence, an accurate diagnosis of ASD at an early phase is essential. The use of machine learning approaches improves and speeds up the diagnosis of ASD. In this paper, we focus on the application of unsupervised clustering methods in ASD, as a large volume of ASD data generated through hospitals, therapy centers, and mobile applications has no pre-existing labels. We conduct a comparative analysis using seven clustering approaches, such as K-means, agglomerative hierarchical, model-based, fuzzy-C-means, affinity propagation, self organizing maps, linear vector quantisation – as well as the recently developed optimization-based clustering (COMSEP-Clust) approach. We evaluate the performances of the clustering methods extensively on real-world ASD datasets encompassing different age groups: toddlers, children, adolescents, and adults. Our experimental results suggest that the COMSEP-Clust approach outperforms the other seven methods in recognizing ASD with well-separated clusters.

Keywords: Autism spectrum disorder, clustering, optimization, unsupervised machine learning.

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4147 Multivariable System Reduction Using Stability Equation Method and SRAM

Authors: D. Bala Bhaskar

Abstract:

An algorithm is proposed for the order reduction of large scale linear dynamic multi variable systems where the reduced order model denominator is obtained by using Stability equation method and numerator coefficients are obtained by using SRAM. The proposed algorithm produces a lower order model for an original stable high order multivariable system. The reduction procedure is easy to understand, efficient and computer oriented. To highlight the advantages of the approach, the algorithm is illustrated with the help of a numerical example and the results are compared with the other existing techniques in literature.

Keywords: Multi variable systems, order reduction, stability equation method, SRAM, time domain characteristics, ISE.

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4146 Application the Queuing Theory in the Warehouse Optimization

Authors: Jaroslav Masek, Juraj Camaj, Eva Nedeliakova

Abstract:

The aim of optimization of store management is not only designing the situation of store management itself including its equipment, technology and operation. In optimization of store management we need to consider also synchronizing of technological, transport, store and service operations throughout the whole process of logistic chain in such a way that a natural flow of material from provider to consumer will be achieved the shortest possible way, in the shortest possible time in requested quality and quantity and with minimum costs. The paper deals with the application of the queuing theory for optimization of warehouse processes. The first part refers to common information about the problematic of warehousing and using mathematical methods for logistics chains optimization. The second part refers to preparing a model of a warehouse within queuing theory. The conclusion of the paper includes two examples of using queuing theory in praxis.

Keywords: Queuing theory, logistics system, mathematical methods, warehouse optimization.

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4145 A Software Framework for Predicting Oil-Palm Yield from Climate Data

Authors: Mohd. Noor Md. Sap, A. Majid Awan

Abstract:

Intelligent systems based on machine learning techniques, such as classification, clustering, are gaining wide spread popularity in real world applications. This paper presents work on developing a software system for predicting crop yield, for example oil-palm yield, from climate and plantation data. At the core of our system is a method for unsupervised partitioning of data for finding spatio-temporal patterns in climate data using kernel methods which offer strength to deal with complex data. This work gets inspiration from the notion that a non-linear data transformation into some high dimensional feature space increases the possibility of linear separability of the patterns in the transformed space. Therefore, it simplifies exploration of the associated structure in the data. Kernel methods implicitly perform a non-linear mapping of the input data into a high dimensional feature space by replacing the inner products with an appropriate positive definite function. In this paper we present a robust weighted kernel k-means algorithm incorporating spatial constraints for clustering the data. The proposed algorithm can effectively handle noise, outliers and auto-correlation in the spatial data, for effective and efficient data analysis by exploring patterns and structures in the data, and thus can be used for predicting oil-palm yield by analyzing various factors affecting the yield.

Keywords: Pattern analysis, clustering, kernel methods, spatial data, crop yield

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4144 Human Induced Dynamic Loading on Stairs

Authors: L. Gaile, I. Radinsh

Abstract:

Based on experimental data using accelerometry technology there was developed an analytical model that approximates human induced ground reaction forces in vertical, longitudinal and lateral directions ascending and descending the stairs. Proposed dynamic loading factors and corresponding phase shifts for the first five harmonics of continuous walking force history in case of stair ascend and descend. Into account is taken imperfectness of individual footfall forcing functions, differences between continuous walking force histories among individuals. There is proposed mean synthetic continuous walking force history that can be used in numerical simulations of human movement on the stairs.

Keywords: footfall, ground reaction forces, human loads, serviceability, stair vibration, walking

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4143 A Note on MHD Flow and Heat Transfer over a Curved Stretching Sheet by Considering Variable Thermal Conductivity

Authors: M. G. Murtaza, E. E. Tzirtzilakis, M. Ferdows

Abstract:

The mixed convective flow of MHD incompressible, steady boundary layer in heat transfer over a curved stretching sheet due to temperature dependent thermal conductivity is studied. We use curvilinear coordinate system in order to describe the governing flow equations. Finite difference solutions with central differencing have been used to solve the transform governing equations. Numerical results for the flow velocity and temperature profiles are presented as a function of the non-dimensional curvature radius. Skin friction coefficient and local Nusselt number at the surface of the curved sheet are discussed as well.

Keywords: Curved stretching sheet, finite difference method, MHD, variable thermal conductivity.

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4142 CFD Study of Turbine Submergence Effects on Aeration of a Stirred Tank

Authors: Achouri Ryma, Hatem Dhaouadi, Hatem Mhiri, and Philippe Bournot

Abstract:

For many chemical and biological processes, the understanding of the mixing phenomenon and flow behavior in a stirred tank is of major importance. A three-dimensional numerical study was performed using the software Fluent, to study the flow field in a stirred tank with a Rushton turbine. In this work, we first studied the flow generated in the tank with a Rushton turbine. Then, we studied the effect of the variation of turbine’s submergence on the thermodynamic quantities defining the flow field. For that, four submergences were considered, while maintaining the same rotational speed (N =250rpm). This work intends to optimize the aeration performances of a Rushton turbine in a stirred tank.

Keywords: Aeration, CFD, Rushton turbine, mixing, submergence

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4141 The Reliability of the Improved e-N Method for Transition Prediction as Checked by PSE Method

Authors: Caihong Su

Abstract:

Transition prediction of boundary layers has always been an important problem in fluid mechanics both theoretically and practically, yet notwithstanding the great effort made by many investigators, there is no satisfactory answer to this problem. The most popular method available is so-called e-N method which is heavily dependent on experiments and experience. The author has proposed improvements to the e-N method, so to reduce its dependence on experiments and experience to a certain extent. One of the key assumptions is that transition would occur whenever the velocity amplitude of disturbance reaches 1-2% of the free stream velocity. However, the reliability of this assumption needs to be verified. In this paper, transition prediction on a flat plate is investigated by using both the improved e-N method and the parabolized stability equations (PSE) methods. The results show that the transition locations predicted by both methods agree reasonably well with each other, under the above assumption. For the supersonic case, the critical velocity amplitude in the improved e-N method should be taken as 0.013, whereas in the subsonic case, it should be 0.018, both are within the range 1-2%.

Keywords: Boundary layer, e-N method, PSE, Transition

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4140 Mathematical Determination of Tall Square Building Height under Peak Wind Loads

Authors: Debojyoti Mitra

Abstract:

The present study concentrates on solving the along wind oscillation problem of a tall square building from first principles and across wind oscillation problem of the same from empirical relations obtained by experiments. The criterion for human comfort at the worst condition at the top floor of the building is being considered and a limiting value of height of a building for a given cross section is predicted. Numerical integrations are carried out as and when required. The results show severeness of across wind oscillations in comparison to along wind oscillation. The comfort criterion is combined with across wind oscillation results to determine the maximum allowable height of a building for a given square cross-section.

Keywords: Tall Building, Along-wind Response, Across-wind Response, Human Comfort.

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4139 Axisymmetric Vibration of Pyrocomposite Hollow Cylinder

Authors: V. K. Nelson, S. Karthikeyan

Abstract:

Axisymmetric vibration of an infinite Pyrocomposite circular hollow cylinder made of inner and outer pyroelectric layer of 6mm-class bonded together by a Linear Elastic Material with Voids (LEMV) layer is studied. The exact frequency equation is obtained for the traction free surfaces with continuity condition at the interfaces. Numerical results in the form of data and dispersion curves for the first and second mode of the axisymmetric vibration of the cylinder BaTio3 / Adhesive / BaTio3 by taking the Adhesive layer as an existing Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) are compared with a hypothetical LEMV layer with and without voids and as well with a pyroelectric hollow cylinder. The damping is analyzed through the imaginary parts of the complex frequencies.

Keywords: Axisymmetric vibration, CFRP, hollow cylinders, LEMV, pyrocomposite

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4138 A Study of Standing-Wave Thermoacoustic Refrigerator

Authors: Patcharin Saechan, Isares Dhuchakallaya

Abstract:

Thermoacoustic refrigerator is a cooling device which uses the acoustic waves to produce the cooling effect. The aim of this paper is to explore the experimental and numerical feasibility of a standing-wave thermoacoustic refrigerator. The effects of the stack length, position of stack and operating frequency on the cooling performance are carried out. The circular pore stacks are tested under the atmospheric pressure. A low-cost loudspeaker is used as an acoustic driver. The results show that the location of stack installed in resonator tube has a greater effect on the cooling performance, than the stack length and operating frequency, respectively. The temperature difference across the ends of stack can be generated up to 13.7°C, and the temperature of cold-end is dropped down by 5.3°C from the ambient temperature.

Keywords: Cooling performance, Refrigerator, Standing-wave, Thermoacoustics.

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4137 Prediction of Road Accidents in Qatar by 2022

Authors: M. Abou-Amouna, A. Radwan, L. Al-kuwari, A. Hammuda, K. Al-Khalifa

Abstract:

There is growing concern over increasing incidences of road accidents and consequent loss of human life in Qatar. In light to the future planned event in Qatar, World Cup 2022; Qatar should put into consideration the future deaths caused by road accidents, and past trends should be considered to give a reasonable picture of what may happen in the future. Qatar roads should be arranged and paved in a way that accommodate high capacity of the population in that time, since then there will be a huge number of visitors from the world. Qatar should also consider the risk issues of road accidents raised in that period, and plan to maintain high level to safety strategies. According to the increase in the number of road accidents in Qatar from 1995 until 2012, an analysis of elements affecting and causing road accidents will be effectively studied. This paper aims to identify and criticize the factors that have high effect on causing road accidents in the state of Qatar, and predict the total number of road accidents in Qatar 2022. Alternative methods are discussed and the most applicable ones according to the previous researches are selected for further studies. The methods that satisfy the existing case in Qatar were the multiple linear regression model (MLR) and artificial neutral network (ANN). Those methods are analyzed and their findings are compared. We conclude that by using MLR the number of accidents in 2022 will become 355,226 accidents, and by using ANN 216,264 accidents. We conclude that MLR gave better results than ANN because the artificial neutral network doesn’t fit data with large range varieties.

Keywords: Road Safety, Prediction, Accident, Model, Qatar.

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