Search results for: operational risk

Authors: M. Ndaw, G. Mendy, S. Ouya

Abstract:

Information system risk management helps to reduce or eliminate risk by implementing appropriate controls. In this paper, we propose a quantification model of controls impact on information system risks by automatizing the residual criticality estimation step of FMECA which is based on a inductive reasoning. For this, we defined three equations based on type and maturity of controls. For testing, the values obtained with the model were compared to estimated values given by interlocutors during different working sessions and the result is satisfactory. This model allows an optimal assessment of controls maturity and facilitates risk analysis of information system.

Keywords: Information System, Risk, Control, FMECA.

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Authors: Chih Chin Yang, Chih Yu Lee, Jing Yi Wang, Mei Zhen Xue, Chia Yueh Wu

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A well-defined frequency multiple dividing (FMD) circuit using a resonant model is presented in this research. The basic component of a frequency multiple divider as used in a resonant model is established by compositing a well-defined resonant effect of negative differential resistance (NDR) characteristics which possesses a wider operational region and high operational current at a bias voltage of about 1.15 V. The resonant model is then applied in the frequency dividing circuit with the above division ratio (R_D) of 200 at the signal input of middle frequency. The division ratio also exists at the input of a low frequency signal.

Keywords: Divider, frequency, resonant model.

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Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

Abstract:

Electricity has an indispensable role in human daily life, technological development and economy. It is a special product or service that should be instantaneously generated and consumed. Sources of the world are limited so that effective and efficient use of them is very important not only for human life and environment but also for technological and economic development. Competitive electricity market is one of the important way that provides suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. Besides benefits, it brings along some risks that should be carefully managed by a market player like Electricity Generation Company. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Value at Risk methods for case studies. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and the portfolio performance has been evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and compared with conventional approach. Biennial historical electricity price data of Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: Electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management, Sharpe ratio, value at risk.

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Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Nineta Polemi

Abstract:

Evaluating the levels of cyber-security risks within an enterprise is most important in protecting its information system, services and all its digital assets against security incidents (e.g. accidents, malicious acts, massive cyber-attacks). The existing risk assessment methodologies (e.g. eBIOS, OCTAVE, CRAMM, NIST-800) adopt a technical approach considering as attack factors only the capability, intention and target of the attacker, and not paying attention to the attacker’s psychological profile and personality traits. In this paper, a socio-technical approach is proposed in cyber risk assessment, in order to achieve more realistic risk estimates by considering the personality traits of the attackers. In particular, based upon principles from investigative psychology and behavioural science, a multi-dimensional, extended, quantifiable model for an attacker’s profile is developed, which becomes an additional factor in the cyber risk level calculation.

Keywords: Attacker, behavioural models, cyber risk assessment, cyber-security, human factors, investigative psychology, ISO27001, ISO27005.

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Authors: N. W. Paul, M. Banerjee

Abstract:

Discussing the nexus between global health policy and local practices, this article addresses the recent Ebola outbreak as a role model for narrative co-constructions of epidemic risk. We will demonstrate in how far a theory-driven and methodologically rooted analysis of narrativity can help to improve mechanisms of prevention and intervention whenever epidemic risk needs to be addressed locally in order to contribute to global health. Analyzing the narrative transformation of Ebola, we will also address issues of transcultural problem-solving and of normative questions at stake. In this regard, we seek to contribute to a better understanding of a key question of global health and justice as well as to the underlying ethical questions. By highlighting and analyzing the functions of narratives, this paper provides a translational approach to refine our practices by which we address epidemic risk, be it on the national, the transnational or the global scale.

Keywords: Ebola, Epidemic Risk, Medical Ethics, Medical Humanities.

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Authors: Lamia Hammadi, Abdellah Ait Ouhman, Aomar Ibourk

Abstract:

It is widely assumed that the case of Customs Supply Chain is classified as a complex system, due to not only the variety and large number of actors, but also their complex structural links, and the interactions between these actors, that’s why this system is subject to various types of Risks. The economic, political and social impacts of those risks are highly detrimental to countries, businesses and the public, for this reason, Risk management in the customs supply chain is becoming a crucial issue to ensure the sustainability, security and safety. The main characteristic of customs risk management approach is determining which goods and means of transport should be examined? To what extend? And where future compliance resources should be directed? The purposes of this article are, firstly to deal with the concept of customs supply chain, secondly present our risk management approach based on Cross Activity Based Costing (ABC) Method as an interactive tool to support decision making in customs risk management. Finally, analysis of case study of Moroccan customs to putting theory into practice and will thus draw together the various elements of a structured and efficient risk management approach.

Keywords: Cross ABC Method, Customs Supply Chain, Risk, Risk Management.

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Authors: Petr Teply, Ondrej Vejdovec

Abstract:

There are three main ways of categorizing capital in banking operations: accounting, regulatory and economic capital. However, the 2008-2009 global crisis has shown that none of these categories adequately reflects the real risks of bank operations, especially in light of the failures Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers or Northern Rock. This paper deals with the economic capital allocation of global banks. In theory, economic capital should reflect the real risks of a bank and should be publicly available. Yet, as discovered during the global financial crisis, even when economic capital information was publicly disclosed, the underlying assumptions rendered the information useless. Specifically, some global banks that reported relatively high levels of economic capital before the crisis went bankrupt or had to be bailed-out by their government. And, only 15 out of 50 global banks reported their economic capital during the 2007-2010 period. In this paper, we analyze the changes in reported bank economic capital disclosure during this period. We conclude that relative shares of credit and business risks increased in 2010 compared to 2007, while both operational and market risks decreased their shares on the total economic capital of top-rated global banks. Generally speaking, higher levels of disclosure and transparency of bank operations are required to obtain more confidence from stakeholders. Moreover, additional risks such as liquidity risks should be included in these disclosures.

Keywords: global crisis, economic capital, risk management, risk allocation, bank

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Authors: Ehab N. Alkhanak, Salimah Mokhtar

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The main aim of this paper is to present the research findings on the solution of centralized Web-Services for students by adopting a framework and a prototype for Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) Web-Services. The current situation of students- Web-based application services has been identified and proposed an effective SOA to increase the operational efficiency of Web-Services for them it was necessary to identify the challenges in delivering a SOA technology to increase operational efficiency of Web-Services. Moreover, the SOA is an emerging concept, used for delivering efficient student SOA Web-Services. Therefore, service reusability from SOA Web-Services is provided and logically divided services into smaller services to increase reusability and modularity. In this case each service is a modular unit by itself and interoperability services.

Keywords: Services Oriented Architecture (SOA), Web-based Application services, and Web-Services.

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Authors: Csaba I. Hencz, István Á. Harmati

Abstract:

Nowadays the significance of road transport is gradually increasing. All transport companies are working in the same external environment where the speed of transport is defined by traffic rules. The main objective is to accelerate the speed of service and it is only dependent on the individual abilities of the managing members. These operational control units make decisions quickly (in a typically experiential and/or intuitive way). For this reason, support for these decisions is an important task. Our goal is to create a decision support model based on fuzzy signatures that can assist the work of operational management automatically. If the model sets parameters properly, the management of transport could be more economical and efficient.

Keywords: Freight transport, decision support, information handling, fuzzy methods.

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Authors: Pitsanu Tongkhow, Pichet Jiraprasertwong

Abstract:

This research investigates risk factors for defective products in autoparts factories. Under a Bayesian framework, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) in which the dependent variable, the number of defective products, has a Poisson distribution is adopted. Its performance is compared with the Poisson GLM under a Bayesian framework. The factors considered are production process, machines, and workers. The products coded RT50 are observed. The study found that the Poisson GLMM is more appropriate than the Poisson GLM. For the production Process factor, the highest risk of producing defective products is Process 1, for the Machine factor, the highest risk is Machine 5, and for the Worker factor, the highest risk is Worker 6.

Keywords: Defective autoparts products, Bayesian framework, Generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), Risk factors.

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Authors: Larisa N. Pop, Irina M. Ban

Abstract:

This paper aims to present the main instruments used in the economic literature for measuring the price risk, pointing out on the advantages brought by the conditional variance in this respect. The theoretical approach will be exemplified by elaborating an EGARCH model for the price returns of wheat, both on Romanian and on international market. To our knowledge, no previous empirical research, either on price risk measurement for the Romanian markets or studies that use the ARIMA-EGARCH methodology, have been conducted. After estimating the corresponding models, the paper will compare the estimated conditional variance on the two markets.

Keywords: conditional variance, GARCH models, price risk, volatility

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Authors: Samuel Capintero, Ole H. Petersen

Abstract:

This paper examines the utilization of public-private partnerships for the building and operation of wastewater treatment plants. Our research focuses on risk allocation in this kind of projects. Our analysis builds on more than hundred wastewater treatment plants built and operated through PPP projects in Aragon (Spain). The paper illustrates the consequences of an inadequate management of construction risk and an unsuitable transfer of demand risk in wastewater treatment plants. It also shows that the involvement of many public bodies at local, regional and national level further increases the complexity of this kind of projects and make time delays more likely.

Keywords: Wastewater, treatment plants, PPP, construction.

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Authors: H. Iranmanesh, S. Nazari Shirkouhi, M. R. Skandari

Abstract:

Information Technology (IT) projects are always accompanied by various risks and because of high rate of failure in such projects, managing risks in order to neutralize or at least decrease their effects on the success of the project is strongly essential. In this paper, fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) is exploited as a means of risk evaluation methodology to prioritize and organize risk factors faced in IT projects. A real case of IT projects, a project of design and implementation of an integrated information system in a vehicle producing company in Iran is studied. Related risk factors are identified and then expert qualitative judgments about these factors are acquired. Translating these judgments to fuzzy numbers and using them as an input to FAHP, risk factors are then ranked and prioritized by FAHP in order to make project managers aware of more important risks and enable them to adopt suitable measures to deal with these highly devastative risks.

Keywords: Information technology projects, Risk evaluation, Analytic hierarchal process, fuzzy logic.

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Authors: Hana Naghawi, Khair Jadaan, Rabab Al-Louzi, Taqwa Hadidi

Abstract:

This paper is aimed to evaluate and compare the operational performance of three Unconventional Arterial Intersection Designs (UAIDs) including Median U-Turn, Superstreet, and Single Quadrant Intersection using real traffic data. For this purpose, the heavily congested signalized intersection of Wadi Saqra in Amman was selected. The effect of implementing each of the proposed UAIDs was not only evaluated on the isolated Wadi Saqra signalized intersection, but also on the arterial road including both surrounding intersections. The operational performance of the isolated intersection was based on the level of service (LOS) expressed in terms of control delay and volume to capacity ratio. On the other hand, the measures used to evaluate the operational performance on the arterial road included traffic progression, stopped delay per vehicle, number of stops and the travel speed. The analysis was performed using SYNCHRO 8 microscopic software. The simulation results showed that all three selected UAIDs outperformed the conventional intersection design in terms of control delay but only the Single Quadrant Intersection design improved the main intersection LOS from F to B. Also, the results indicated that the Single Quadrant Intersection design resulted in an increase in average travel speed by 52%, and a decrease in the average stopped delay by 34% on the selected corridor when compared to the corridor with conventional intersection design. On basis of these results, it can be concluded that the Median U-Turn and the Superstreet do not perform the best under heavy traffic volumes.

Keywords: Median U-turn, single quadrant, superstreet, unconventional arterial intersection design.

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Authors: Dae Gon Woo, Han Sung Kim, Dohyung Lim, Dong Jin Seo, In Deok Kong, Chang Yong Ko

Abstract:

Functional gastrointestinal disorders (FGID) affect millions of people spread all age regardless of race and sex. Emotional stress and obesity have been associated with increased reporting of gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms, but the relationship between FGID and risk factors (emotional stress or obesity) is unclear. Our aim was to assess the changes of the mechanical characteristics on the gastrointestinal tracts of the mentally fatigued obese and normal rat models. Finally, using the physical characteristics with micro-indentation test, we made a close investigation into the relation between FGID and risk factors quantitatively.

Keywords: Functional gastrointestinal disorders, Risk Factors, Mechanical Characteristics, Gastrointestinal Tract.

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Authors: Kitti Leangkrua

Abstract:

This paper presents a risk-based maintenance strategy of a power transformer in order to optimize operating and maintenance costs. The methodology involves the study and preparation of a database for the collection the technical data and test data of a power transformer. An evaluation of the overall condition of each transformer is performed by a program developed as a result of the measured results; in addition, the calculation of the main equipment separation to the overall condition of the transformer (% HI) and the criteria for evaluating the importance (% ImI) of each location where the transformer is installed. The condition assessment is performed by analysis test data such as electrical test, insulating oil test and visual inspection. The condition of the power transformer will be classified from very poor to very good condition. The importance is evaluated from load criticality, importance of load and failure consequence. The risk matrix is developed for evaluating the risk of each power transformer. The high risk power transformer will be focused firstly. The computerized program is developed for practical use, and the maintenance strategy of a power transformer can be effectively managed.

Keywords: Asset management, risk-based maintenance, power transformer, health index.

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Authors: Muhammad Jamaluddin Thaheem, Alberto De Marco

Abstract:

The area of Project Risk Management (PRM) has been extensively researched, and the utilization of various tools and techniques for managing risk in several industries has been sufficiently reported. Formal and systematic PRM practices have been made available for the construction industry. Based on such body of knowledge, this paper tries to find out the global picture of PRM practices and approaches with the help of a survey to look into the usage of PRM techniques and diffusion of software tools, their level of maturity, and their usefulness in the construction sector. Results show that, despite existing techniques and tools, their usage is limited: software tools are used only by a minority of respondents and their cost is one of the largest hurdles in adoption. Finally, the paper provides some important guidelines for future research regarding quantitative risk analysis techniques and suggestions for PRM software tools development and improvement.

Keywords: Construction industry, Project risk management, Software tools, Survey study.

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Authors: Carlos Sanchís-Pedregosa, María del Mar González-Zamora, José A. D. Machuca

Abstract:

Logistics outsourcing is a growing trend and measuring its performance, a challenge. It must be consistent with the objectives set for logistics outsourcing, but we have found no objective-based performance measurement system. We have conducted a comprehensive review of the specialist literature to cover this gap, which has led us to identify and define these objectives. The outcome is that we have obtained a list of the most relevant objectives and their descriptions. This will enable us to analyse in a future study whether the indicators used for measuring logistics outsourcing performance are consistent with the objectives pursued with the outsourcing. If this is not the case, a proposal will be made for a set of financial and operational indicators to measure performance in logistics outsourcing that take the goals being pursued into account.

Keywords: Outsourcing, Performance measurement, Logistics, Objectives, Indicators

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Authors: Ravi Shah, V. L. Manekar, R. A. Christian, N. J. Mistry

Abstract:

There are two types of drought as conceptual drought and operational drought. The three parameters as the beginning, the end and the degree of severity of the drought can be identifying in operational drought by average precipitation in the whole region. One of the methods classified to measure drought is Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). Evapotranspiration is calculated using Penman-Monteith method by analyzing thirty nine years prolong climatic data. The evapotranspiration is then utilized in RDI to classify normalized and standardized RDI. These RDI classifications led to what kind of drought faced in Bhavnagar region on 12 month time scale basis. The comparison between actual drought conditions and RDI method used to find out drought are also illustrated. It can be concluded that the index results of drought in a particular year are same in both methods but having different index values where as severity remain same.

Keywords: Drought, Drought index, Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), Precipitation.

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Authors: Pegah Farshadmanesh, Jamshid Mohammadi, Mehdi Modares

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In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition, including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance, and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.

Keywords: Fire risk, post-earthquake fire ignition (PEFI), risk management, seismicity.

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Authors: Jiali Fu

Abstract:

Earthmoving operations are a major part of many construction projects. Because of the complexity and fast-changing environment of such operations, the planning and estimating are crucial on both planning and operational levels. This paper presents the framework ofa microscopic discrete-event simulation system for modeling earthmoving operations and conducting productivity estimations on an operational level.A prototype has been developed to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework, and this simulation system is presented via a case study based on an actual earthmoving project. The case study shows that the proposed simulation model is capable of evaluating alternative operating strategies and resource utilization at a very detailed level.

Keywords: Earthmoving operation, microscopic simulation, discrete-event simulation

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Authors: S. A. Nta

Abstract:

Application of health risk assessment methods is important in order to comprehend the risk of human exposure to heavy metals and other dangerous pollutants. Four soil samples were collected at distances of 10, 20, 30 m and the control 100 m away from the dump site at depths of 0.3, 0.6 and 0.9 m. The collected soil samples were examined for Zn, Cu, Pb, Cd and Ni using standard methods. The health risks via the main pathways of human exposure to heavy metal were detected using relevant standard equations. Hazard quotient was calculated to determine non-carcinogenic health risk for each individual heavy metal. Life time cancer risk was calculated to determine the cumulative life cancer rating for each exposure pathway. The estimated health risk values for adults and children were generally lower than the reference dose. The calculated hazard quotient for the ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact pathways were less than unity. This means that there is no detrimental concern to the health on human exposure to heavy metals in contaminated soil. The life time cancer risk 5.4 × 10^-2 was higher than the acceptable threshold value of 1 × 10^-4 which is reflected to have significant health effects on human exposure to heavy metals in contaminated soil. Good hygienic practices are recommended to ease the potential risk to children and adult who are exposed to contaminated soils. Also, the local authorities should be made aware of such health risks for the purpose of planning the management strategy accordingly.

Keywords: Health risk assessment, pollution, heavy metals, soil.

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Authors: Arun Prasad Jaganathan

Abstract:

In today's rapidly evolving technological landscape, the need for efficient and proactive maintenance management solutions has become increasingly evident across various industries. Traditional approaches often suffer from drawbacks such as reactive strategies, leading to potential downtime, increased costs, and decreased operational efficiency. In response to these challenges, this paper proposes an AI-enabled approach to object-based maintenance management aimed at enhancing reliability and efficiency. The paper contributes to the growing body of research on AI-driven maintenance management systems, highlighting the transformative impact of intelligent technologies on enhancing object reliability and operational efficiency.

Keywords: AI, machine learning, predictive maintenance, object-based maintenance, expert team scheduling.

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Authors: Piotr Prewysz-Kwinto

Abstract:

The market of financial instruments with high risk is developing very dynamically in recent years and attracts more and more interest of investors. It consists essentially of two groups of instruments, i.e. derivatives and exchange traded product (ETP), and each year new types are introduced and offered to investors. The aim of this paper is to present the principles concerning financial instruments with high investment risk available on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), because they have quite complex constructions, and to evaluate the development of this market. In order to achieve this aim, statistical data from 2014-2016 was analyzed. The results confirm that the financial instruments with high investment risk available on the WSE constitute a diversified and the most numerous group of financial instruments and attract the most interest of investors. Responsible investing requires, however, a good knowledge of how they work and how they can generate profit to not expose oneself to unexpected losses.

Keywords: Derivatives, exchange traded products, financial instruments, financial market, risk, stock exchange.

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Authors: Mojtaba Rezaei, Elham Heydari

Abstract:

This paper highlights the empirical results of analyzing the correlation between accounting information and systematic risk. This association is analyzed among financial ratios and systematic risk by considering the financial statement of 39 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) for five years (2014-2018). Financial ratios have been categorized into four groups and to describe the special features, as representative of accounting information we selected: Return on Asset (ROA), Debt Ratio (Total Debt to Total Asset), Current Ratio (current assets to current debt), Asset Turnover (Net sales to Total assets), and Total Assets. The hypotheses were tested through simple and multiple linear regression and T-student test. The findings illustrate that there is no significant relationship between accounting information and market risk. This indicates that in the selected sample, historical accounting information does not fully reflect the price of stocks.

Keywords: Accounting information, market risk, systematic risk, efficient market hypothesis, EMH, Tehran Stock Exchange, TSE.

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Authors: Ki-Jin Kim, Sanghoon Park, K. H. Ahn

Abstract:

This paper presents the 20-GHz fractional PLL (Phase Locked Loop) circuit for the next generation Wi-Fi by using 90 nm TSMC process. The newly suggested millimeter wave 16/17 pre-scalar is designed and verified by measurement to make the fractional PLL having a low quantization noise. The operational bandwidth of the 60 GHz system is 15 % of the carrier frequency which requires large value of Kv (VCO control gain) resulting in degradation of phase noise. To solve this problem, this paper adopts AFC (Automatic Frequency Controller) controlled 4-bit millimeter wave VCO with small value of Kv. Also constant Kv is implemented using 4-bit varactor bank. The measured operational bandwidth is 18.2 ~ 23.2 GHz which is 25 % of the carrier frequency. The phase noise of -58 and -96.2 dBc/Hz at 100 KHz and 1 MHz offset is measured respectively. The total power consumption of the PLL is only 30 mW.

Keywords: Millimeter Wave Fractional PLL, Wide band VCO, WPAN Transceiver.

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Authors: Siavash Asadi Ghajarloo

Abstract:

Nowadays predicting political risk level of country has become a critical issue for investors who intend to achieve accurate information concerning stability of the business environments. Since, most of the times investors are layman and nonprofessional IT personnel; this paper aims to propose a framework named GECR in order to help nonexpert persons to discover political risk stability across time based on the political news and events. To achieve this goal, the Bayesian Networks approach was utilized for 186 political news of Pakistan as sample dataset. Bayesian Networks as an artificial intelligence approach has been employed in presented framework, since this is a powerful technique that can be applied to model uncertain domains. The results showed that our framework along with Bayesian Networks as decision support tool, predicted the political risk level with a high degree of accuracy.

Keywords: Bayesian Networks, Data mining, GECRframework, Predicting political risk.

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Authors: Sung-Hun Lee, Yun-Seong Lee, Jin-O Kim

Abstract:

Reliability Centered Maintenance(RCM) is one of most widely used methods in the modern power system to schedule a maintenance cycle and determine the priority of inspection. In order to apply the RCM method to the Smart Grid, a precedence study for the new structure of rearranged system should be performed due to introduction of additional installation such as renewable and sustainable energy resources, energy storage devices and advanced metering infrastructure. This paper proposes a new method to evaluate the priority of maintenance and inspection of the power system facilities in the Smart Grid using the Risk Priority Number. In order to calculate that risk index, it is required that the reliability block diagram should be analyzed for the Smart Grid system. Finally, the feasible technical method is discussed to estimate the risk potential as part of the RCM procedure.

Keywords: Expert System, FMECA, Fuzzy Theory, Reliability Centered Maintenance, Risk Priority Number

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Authors: Napisporn Memongkol, Runchana Sinthavalai, Nattapong Seneeratanaprayune Weerawat Ounsaneha, Chanisada Choosuk

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to develop the performance indicators (PIs) in operational level for the Pre-hospital Emergency Medical Service (EMS) system employing in Thailand. This research started with ascertaining the current pre-hospital care system. The team analyzed the strategies of Narerthorn, a government unit under the ministry of public health, and the existing PIs of the pre-hospital care. Afterwards, the current National Strategic Plan of EMS development (2008-2012) of the Emergency Medical Institute of Thailand (EMIT) was considered using strategic analysis to developed Strategy Map (SM) and identified the Success Factors (SFs). The analysis results from strategy map and SFs were used to develop the Performance Indicators (PIs). To verify the set of PIs, the team has interviewed with the relevant practitioners for the possibilities to implement the PIs. To this paper, it was to ascertain that all the developed PIs support the objectives of the strategic plan. Nevertheless, the results showed that the operational level PIs suited only with the first dimension of National Strategic Plan (infrastructure and information technology development). Besides, the SF was the infrastructure development (to contribute the EMS system to people throughout with standard and efficiency both in normally and disaster conditions). Finally, twenty-nine indicators were developed from the analysis results of SM and SFs.

Keywords: Emergency Medical Service, Performance Indicator, Success Factor, Thailand

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Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz

Abstract:

Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Keywords: Probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability.

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