Search results for: remote patient monitoring system

Authors: Walter Sebron, Hans Tschürtz, Peter Krebs

Abstract:

The choice of applicable analysis methods in safety or systems engineering depends on the depth of knowledge about a system, and on the respective lifecycle phase. However, the analysis method chain still shows gaps as it should support system analysis during the lifecycle of a system from a rough concept in pre-project phase until end-of-life. This paper’s goal is to discuss an analysis method, the VISSE Shell Model Analysis (VISMA) method, which aims at closing the gap in the early system lifecycle phases, like the conceptual or pre-project phase, or the project start phase. It was originally developed to aid in the definition of the system boundary of electronic system parts, like e.g. a control unit for a pump motor. Furthermore, it can be also applied to non-electronic system parts. The VISMA method is a graphical sketch-like method that stratifies a system and its parts in inner and outer shells, like the layers of an onion. It analyses a system in a two-step approach, from the innermost to the outermost components followed by the reverse direction. To ensure a complete view of a system and its environment, the VISMA should be performed by (multifunctional) development teams. To introduce the method, a set of rules and guidelines has been defined in order to enable a proper shell build-up. In the first step, the innermost system, named system under consideration (SUC), is selected, which is the focus of the subsequent analysis. Then, its directly adjacent components, responsible for providing input to and receiving output from the SUC, are identified. These components are the content of the first shell around the SUC. Next, the input and output components to the components in the first shell are identified and form the second shell around the first one. Continuing this way, shell by shell is added with its respective parts until the border of the complete system (external border) is reached. Last, two external shells are added to complete the system view, the environment and the use case shell. This system view is also stored for future use. In the second step, the shells are examined in the reverse direction (outside to inside) in order to remove superfluous components or subsystems. Input chains to the SUC, as well as output chains from the SUC are described graphically via arrows, to highlight functional chains through the system. As a result, this method offers a clear and graphical description and overview of a system, its main parts and environment; however, the focus still remains on a specific SUC. It helps to identify the interfaces and interfacing components of the SUC, as well as important external interfaces of the overall system. It supports the identification of the first internal and external hazard causes and causal chains. Additionally, the method promotes a holistic picture and cross-functional understanding of a system, its contributing parts, internal relationships and possible dangers within a multidisciplinary development team.

Keywords: Analysis methods, functional safety, hazard identification, system and safety engineering, system boundary definition, system safety.

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Authors: Giuliano Raimondo, Jörg Wangemann, Peer Drechsel

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In systems development involving Fuel Cells generators, it is important to have from an early stage of the project a dynamic model for the electrical behavior of the stack to be shared between involved development parties. It allows independent and early design and tests of fuel cell related power electronic. This paper presents an empirical Fuel Cell system model derived from characterization tests on a real system. Moreover, it is illustrated how the obtained model is used to build and validate a real-time Fuel Cell system emulator which is used for aerospace electrical integration testing activities.

Keywords: Fuel cell dynamics, real time simulation, fuel cell, modelling, testing.

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Authors: Israa Al-Neami, Ali J. Al-Askery, Martin Johnston, Charalampos Tsimenidis

Abstract:

In this paper, we focus on the design of a multi-line copper wire (MLCW) communication system. First, we construct our proposed MLCW channel and verify its characteristics based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. In addition, we apply Middleton class A impulsive noise (IN) to the copper channel for further investigation. Second, the MIMO G.fast system is adopted utilizing the proposed MLCW channel model and is compared to a single line G-fast system. Second, the performance of the coded system is obtained utilizing concatenated interleaved Reed-Solomon (RS) code with four-dimensional trellis-coded modulation (4D TCM), and compared to the single line G-fast system. Simulations are obtained for high quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) constellations that are commonly used with G-fast communications, the results demonstrate that the bit error rate (BER) performance of the coded MLCW system shows an improvement compared to the single line G-fast systems.

Keywords: G.fast, Middleton Class A impulsive noise, mitigation techniques, copper channel Model.

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Authors: Weihua Ruan, Kuan-Chou Chen

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This paper is concerned with a system of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations coupled with an autonomous dynamical system. The mathematical system arises in the differential game formulation of political economy models as an infinite-horizon continuous-time differential game with discounted instantaneous payoff rates and continuously and discretely varying state variables. The existence of a weak solution of the PDE system is proven and a computational scheme of approximate solution is developed for a class of such systems. A model of democratization is mathematically analyzed as an illustration of application.

Keywords: Differential games, Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations, infinite horizon, political-economy models.

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Authors: D. W. Kim , D. J. Ryu, M. J. Go, D. Chang, S. B. Han, J. M. Hur, B. R. Chung, B. K. Kim, Yeon Hye Jin

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Biological treatment of secondary effluent wastewater by two combined denitrification/oxic filtration systems packed with Lock type(denitrification filter) and ceramic ball (oxic filter) has been studied for 5months. Two phases of operating conditions were carried out with an influent nitrate and ammonia concentrations varied from 5.8 to 11.7mg/L and 5.4 to 12.4mg/L,respectively. Denitrification/oxic filter treatment system were operated under an EBCT (Empty Bed Contact Time) of 4h at system recirculation ratio in the range from 0 to 300% (Linear Velocity increased 19.5m/d to 78m/d). The system efficiency of denitrification , nitrification over 95% respectively. Total nitrogen and COD removal range from 54.6%(recirculation 0%) to 92.3%(recirculation 300%) and 10% to 62.5%, respectively.

Keywords: Advanced treatment , Biofilter, Nitrogen removal, Two combined denitrification/oxic filter

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Authors: Heung Sun Yoon, Jong Tae Kim

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In this paper, we present an activity diagram model for double-loop control self-adaptive braking system. Since activity diagram helps to improve visibility of self-adaption. We can easily find where improvement is needed on double-loop control. Double-loop control is adopted since the design conditions and actual conditions can be different. The system is reconfigured in runtime by using double-loop control. We simulated to verify and validate our model by using MATLAB. We compared single-loop control model with double-loop control model. Simulation results show that double-loop control provides more consistent brake power control than single-loop control.

Keywords: Activity diagram, automotive, braking system, double-loop, Self-adaptive, UML, vehicle.

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Authors: K. Ratanapongleka, J. Phetsom

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Extraction of laccase produced by L. polychrous in an aqueous two-phase system, composed of polyethylene glycol and phosphate salt at pH 7.0 and 250C was investigated. The effect of PEG molecular weight, PEG concentration and phosphate concentration was determined. Laccase preferentially partitioned to the top phase. Good extraction of laccase to the top phase was observed with PEG 4000. The optimum system was found in the system containing 12% w/w PEG 4000 and 16% w/w phosphate salt with KE of 88.3, purification factor of 3.0-fold and 99.1% yield. Some properties of the enzyme such as thermal stability, effect of heavy metal ions and kinetic constants were also presented in this work. The thermal stability decreased sharply with high temperature above 60 0C. The enzyme was inhibited by Cd2+, Pb2+, Zn2+ and Cu2+. The Vmax and Km values of the enzyme were 74.70 μmol/min/ml and 9.066 mM respectively.

Keywords: Aqueous Two Phase System, Laccase, Lentinuspolychrous,

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Authors: Hsuan-Ku Liu

Abstract:

A linear system is called a fully fuzzy linear system (FFLS) if quantities in this system are all fuzzy numbers. For the FFLS, we investigate its solution and develop a new approximate method for solving the FFLS. Observing the numerical results, we find that our method is accurate than the iterative Jacobi and Gauss- Seidel methods on approximating the solution of FFLS.

Keywords: Fully fuzzy linear equations, iterative method, homotopy perturbation method, approximate solutions.

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Authors: Dengpan Wu, Dan Liu

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In view of the present cloud security problem has increasingly become one of the major obstacles hindering the development of the cloud computing, put forward a kind of memory based on Xen cloud environment security isolation technology implementation. And based on Xen virtual machine monitor system, analysis of the model of memory virtualization is implemented, using Xen memory virtualization system mechanism of super calls and grant table, based on the virtual machine manager internal implementation of access control module (ACM) to design the security isolation system memory. Experiments show that, the system can effectively isolate different customer domain OS between illegal access to memory data.

Keywords: Cloud security, memory isolation, Xen, virtual machine.

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Authors: Altab Hossain, Ataur Rahman, A. K. M. Mohiuddin, Yulfian Aminanda

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Modeling of the dynamic behavior and motion are renewed interest in the improved tractive performance of an intelligent air-cushion tracked vehicle (IACTV). This paper presents a new dynamical model for the forces on the developed small scale intelligent air-cushion tracked vehicle moving over swamp peat. The air cushion system partially supports the 25 % of vehicle total weight in order to make the vehicle ground contact pressure 7 kN/m2. As the air-cushion support system can adjust automatically on the terrain, so the vehicle can move over the terrain without any risks. The springdamper system is used with the vehicle body to control the aircushion support system on any undulating terrain by making the system sinusoidal form. Experiments have been carried out to investigate the relationships among tractive efficiency, slippage, traction coefficient, load distribution ratio, tractive effort, motion resistance and power consumption in given terrain conditions. Experiment and simulation results show that air-cushion system improves the vehicle performance by keeping traction coefficient of 71% and tractive efficiency of 62% and the developed model can meet the demand of transport efficiency with the optimal power consumption.

Keywords: Air-cushion system, ground contact pressure, slippage, power consumption.

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Authors: Touahria Mohamed, Khababa Abdallah, Frécon Louis

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This paper proposes a declarative language for knowledge representation (Ibn Rochd), and its environment of exploitation (DeGSE). This DeGSE system was designed and developed to facilitate Ibn Rochd writing applications. The system was tested on several knowledge bases by ascending complexity, culminating in a system for recognition of a plant or a tree, and advisors to purchase a car, for pedagogical and academic guidance, or for bank savings and credit. Finally, the limits of the language and research perspectives are stated.

Keywords: Knowledge representation, declarative language, IbnRochd, DeGSE, facets, cognitive approach.

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Authors: Yong ZHANG, Xiamu NIU, Dongning ZHAO

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With the development of Internet and databases application techniques, the demand that lots of databases in the Internet are permitted to remote query and access for authorized users becomes common, and the problem that how to protect the copyright of relational databases arises. This paper simply introduces the knowledge of cloud model firstly, includes cloud generators and similar cloud. And then combined with the property of the cloud, a method of protecting relational databases copyright with cloud watermark is proposed according to the idea of digital watermark and the property of relational databases. Meanwhile, the corresponding watermark algorithms such as cloud watermark embedding algorithm and detection algorithm are proposed. Then, some experiments are run and the results are analyzed to validate the correctness and feasibility of the watermark scheme. In the end, the foreground of watermarking relational database and its research direction are prospected.

Keywords: cloud watermark, copyright protection, digitalwatermark, relational database

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Authors: Salima Hacini, Zahia Guessoum, Zizette Boufaïda

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Human activities are increasingly based on the use of remote resources and services, and on the interaction between remotely located parties that may know little about each other. Mobile agents must be prepared to execute on different hosts with various environmental security conditions. The aim of this paper is to propose a trust based mechanism to improve the security of mobile agents and allow their execution in various environments. Thus, an adaptive trust mechanism is proposed. It is based on the dynamic interaction between the agent and the environment. Information collected during the interaction enables generation of an environment key. This key informs on the host-s trust degree and permits the mobile agent to adapt its execution. Trust estimation is based on concrete parameters values. Thus, in case of distrust, the source of problem can be located and a mobile agent appropriate behavior can be selected.

Keywords: Internet security, malicious host, mobile agent security, trust management

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Authors: C. Yagci, F. Iscan

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In this study, spatial differences of Power Transmission Line (PTL) and effects of the situation before and after the urban regeneration are studied by using Geographical Information System (GIS). In addition, a questionable and analyzable structure is acquired by developed system. In the study area many parcels on the PTL were analyzed. The amount of the parcels, which are affected by the negativity of PTL is clearly seen with the aid of generated maps. Some kind of changes are exhibited in the system, which are created by GIS, for instance before urban regeneration PTL was very close to people’s private properties and huge parts of PTL were among the buildings, however; after urban regeneration electricity lines were changed their locations to the underground. According to the results, GIS can be used as a device in planning and managing of PTL in urban regeneration projects and can be used for analyses. By the help of GIS technology, necessary investigations should be carried out in urban regeneration applications for creating sustainable cities.

Keywords: GIS, power transmission line, urban regeneration, technology.

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Authors: N. S. Usha, E. A. Mary Anita

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Recent innovations in the field of technology led to the use of   wireless sensor networks in various applications, which consists of a number of small, very tiny, low-cost, non-tamper proof and resource constrained sensor nodes. These nodes are often distributed and deployed in an unattended environment, so as to collaborate with each other to share data or information. Amidst various applications, wireless sensor network finds a major role in monitoring battle field in military applications. As these non-tamperproof nodes are deployed in an unattended location, they are vulnerable to many security attacks. Amongst many security attacks, the node replication attack seems to be more threatening to the network users. Node Replication attack is caused by an attacker, who catches one true node, duplicates the first certification and cryptographic materials, makes at least one or more copies of the caught node and spots them at certain key positions in the system to screen or disturb the network operations. Preventing the occurrence of such node replication attacks in network is a challenging task. In this survey article, we provide the classification of detection schemes and also explore the various schemes proposed in each category. Also, we compare the various detection schemes against certain evaluation parameters and also its limitations. Finally, we provide some suggestions for carrying out future research work against such attacks.

Keywords: Clone node, data security, detection schemes, node replication attack, wireless sensor networks.

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Authors: Irshad Ahmad, Abdul Muhamin Naeem, Muhammad Islam

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Information on weed distribution within the field is necessary to implement spatially variable herbicide application. Since hand labor is costly, an automated weed control system could be feasible. This paper deals with the development of an algorithm for real time specific weed recognition system based on Histogram Analysis of an image that is used for the weed classification. This algorithm is specifically developed to classify images into broad and narrow class for real-time selective herbicide application. The developed system has been tested on weeds in the lab, which have shown that the system to be very effectiveness in weed identification. Further the results show a very reliable performance on images of weeds taken under varying field conditions. The analysis of the results shows over 95 percent classification accuracy over 140 sample images (broad and narrow) with 70 samples from each category of weeds.

Keywords: Image Processing, real-time recognition, Weeddetection.

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Authors: Fahad Shahbaz Khan, Rao Muhammad Anwer, Olof Torgersson

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The vast amount of information hidden in huge databases has created tremendous interests in the field of data mining. This paper examines the possibility of using data clustering techniques in oral medicine to identify functional relationships between different attributes and classification of similar patient examinations. Commonly used data clustering algorithms have been reviewed and as a result several interesting results have been gathered.

Keywords: Oral Medicine, Cluto, Data Clustering, Data Mining.

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Authors: Byoung-Uk Nam, Hag-Seong Kim, Ho-Jung Lee, Dong-Hyun Kim

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This paper focuses on systematic analysis and controller design of the two-inertia STABILIZATION system, considering the angular motion on a base body. This approach is essential to the stabilization system to aim at a target under three or six degrees of freedom base motion. Four controllers, such as conventional PDF(Pseudo-Derivative Feedback) controller with motor speed feedback, PDF controller with load speed feedback, modified PDF controller with motor-load speed feedback and feedforward controller added to modified PDF controller, are suggested to improve reference tracking and disturbance rejection performance. Characteristics and performance of each controller are analyzed and validated by simulation in the case of the modified PDF controller with and without a feedforward controller.

Keywords: Two-Inertia stabilization System, ITAE criterion, Speed Control.

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Authors: Omid Ghasemalizadeh, Mohammad Reza Mirzaee, Hossein Sadeghi, Mohammad Taghi Ahmadian

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There are lots of different ways to find the natural frequencies of a rotating system. One of the most effective methods which is used because of its precision and correctness is the application of the transfer matrix. By use of this method the entire continuous system is subdivided and the corresponding differential equation can be stated in matrix form. So to analyze shaft that is this paper issue the rotor is divided as several elements along the shaft which each one has its own mass and moment of inertia, which this work would create possibility of defining the named matrix. By Choosing more elements number, the size of matrix would become larger and as a result more accurate answers would be earned. In this paper the dynamics of a rotor-bearing system is analyzed, considering the gyroscopic effect. To increase the accuracy of modeling the thickness of the disk and bearings is also taken into account which would cause more complicated matrix to be solved. Entering these parameters to our modeling would change the results completely that these differences are shown in the results. As said upper, to define transfer matrix to reach the natural frequencies of probed system, introducing some elements would be one of the requirements. For the boundary condition of these elements, bearings at the end of the shaft are modeled as equivalent spring and dampers for the discretized system. Also, continuous model is used for the shaft in the system. By above considerations and using transfer matrix, exact results are taken from the calculations. Results Show that, by increasing thickness of the bearing the amplitude of vibration would decrease, but obviously the stiffness of the shaft and the natural frequencies of the system would accompany growth. Consequently it is easily understood that ignoring the influences of bearing and disk thicknesses would results not real answers.

Keywords: Rotor System, Disk and Bearing Thickness, Transfer Matrix, Amplitude.

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Authors: Farzad Abdous

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Fuel cell's system requires regulating circuit for voltage and current in order to control power in case of connecting to other generative devices or load. In this paper Fuel cell system and convertor, which is a multi-variable system, are controlled using sliding mode method. Use of weighting matrix in design procedure made it possible to regulate speed of control. Simulation results show the robustness and accuracy of proposed controller for controlling desired of outputs.

Keywords: DC-DC converter, Fuel cell, PEM, Slides mode control.

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Authors: P. Parvizi, S. Mohammadi

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an intelligent BRT system is necessary when communities looking for new ways to use high capacity rapid transit at a reduced cost.This paper will describe the intelligent control system that works with Datacenter. With the help of GPS system, the data center can monitor the situation of each bus and bus station. Through RFID technology, bus station and traffic light can transfer data with bus and by Wimax communication technology all of parts can talk together; data center learns all information about the location of bus, the arrival of bus in each station and the number of passengers in station and bus.Finally, the paper presents the case study of those theories in Tehran BRT.

Keywords: TehranBRT, RFID, Intelligent Transportation

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Authors: Surinder Deswal, Vineet Verma

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Air Quality Index (AQI) is used as a tool to indicate the level of severity and disseminate the information on air pollution to enable the public to understand the health and environmental impacts of air pollutant concentration levels. The annual and seasonal variation of criteria air pollutants concentration based on the National Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Programme has been conducted for a period of nine years (2006-2014) using the AQI system. AQI was calculated using IND-AQI methodology and Maximum Operator Concept is applied. An attempt has been made to quantify the variations in AQI on an annual and seasonal basis over a period of nine years. Further, year-wise frequency of occurrence of AQI in each category for all the five stations is analysed, which presents in depth analysis of trends over the period of study. The best air quality was observed in the Noida residential area, followed by Noida industrial area during the study period; whereas, Bulandshahar industrial area and Faridabad residential area were observed to have the worst air quality. A shift in the worst air quality from winter to summer season has also been observed during the study period. Further, the level of Respirable Suspended Particulate Matter was found to be above permissible limit at all the stations. The present study helps in enhancing public awareness and calls for the need of immediate measures to be taken to counter-effect the cause of the increasing level of air pollution.

Keywords: Air quality index, annual trends, criteria pollutants, seasonal variation.

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Authors: Zainab Almukhtar, Adel Merabet

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In this paper, a method for maximum power point tracking of a photovoltaic energy conversion system is presented. This method is based on using the difference between the power from the solar panel and an estimated power value to control the DC-DC converter of the photovoltaic system. The difference is continuously compared with a preset error permitted value. If the power difference is more than the error, the estimated power is multiplied by a factor and the operation is repeated until the difference is less or equal to the threshold error. The difference in power will be used to trigger a DC-DC boost converter in order to raise the voltage to where the maximum power point is achieved. The proposed method was experimentally verified through a PV energy conversion system driven by the OPAL-RT real time controller. The method was tested on varying radiation conditions and load requirements, and the Photovoltaic Panel was operated at its maximum power in different conditions of irradiation.

Keywords: Control system, power error, solar panel, MPPT.

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Authors: Kazunari Meguro, Shinichi Motomura, Takao Kawamura, Kazunori Sugahara

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In this paper, backup and recovery technique for Peer to Peer applications, such as a distributed asynchronous Web-Based Training system that we have previously proposed. In order to improve the scalability and robustness of this system, all contents and function are realized on mobile agents. These agents are distributed to computers, and they can obtain using a Peer to Peer network that modified Content-Addressable Network. In the proposed system, although entire services do not become impossible even if some computers break down, the problem that contents disappear occurs with an agent-s disappearance. As a solution for this issue, backups of agents are distributed to computers. If a failure of a computer is detected, other computers will continue service using backups of the agents belonged to the computer.

Keywords: Distributed Multimedia Systems, e-Learning, P2P, Mobile Agent

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Authors: Chee Siong Teh, Chee Peng Lim

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This paper proposes a novel architecture for developing decision support systems. Unlike conventional decision support systems, the proposed architecture endeavors to reveal the decision-making process such that humans' subjectivity can be incorporated into a computerized system and, at the same time, to preserve the capability of the computerized system in processing information objectively. A number of techniques used in developing the decision support system are elaborated to make the decisionmarking process transparent. These include procedures for high dimensional data visualization, pattern classification, prediction, and evolutionary computational search. An artificial data set is first employed to compare the proposed approach with other methods. A simulated handwritten data set and a real data set on liver disease diagnosis are then employed to evaluate the efficacy of the proposed approach. The results are analyzed and discussed. The potentials of the proposed architecture as a useful decision support system are demonstrated.

Keywords: Interactive evolutionary computation, multivariate data projection, pattern classification, topographic map.

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Authors: Takahiro Takayama, Takao Kawamura, Toshihiko Sasama, Kazunori Sugahara

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Recently, web services to access from many type devices are often used. We have developed the shortest path planning system called "Bus-Net" in Tottori prefecture as a web application to sustain the public transport. And it used the same user interface for both devices. To support both devices, the interface cannot use JavaScript and so on. Thus, we developed the method that use individual user interface for each device type to improve its convenience. To be concrete, we defined formats of condition input to the path planning system and result output from it and separate the system into the request processing part and user interface parts that depend on device types. By this method, we have also developed special device for Bus-Net named "Intelligent-Bus-Stop".

Keywords: Bus, Path planning, Public transport, User interface

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Authors: Wanida Suwunniponth

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The purpose of this research was to study the factors of characteristic of business, website quality and trust affected intention to use electronic payment systems for online purchasing. This survey research used questionnaire as a tool to collect the data of 300 customers who purchased online products and used an electronic payment system. The descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis were used to analyze data. The results revealed that customers had a good opinion towards the characteristic of the business and website quality. However, they have a moderate opinion towards trust and intention to repurchase. In addition, the characteristics of the business affected the purchase intention the most, followed by website quality and the trust with statistical significance at 0.05 level. For particular, the terms of reputation, communication, information quality, perceived risk and word of mouth affected the intention to use the electronic payment system. In contrast, the terms of size, system quality and service quality did not affect intention to use an electronic payment system.

Keywords: Electronic payment, intention, online purchasing, trust.

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Authors: Muhammad Mazhar Manzoor, Muhammad Aqeel, Abdul Sattar

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Islamic banking is one the most blossoming doctrine in economic system of the world. The Fast growing awareness about Islamic financial system has brought strong feeling to Muslims to confront the western interest-based economic cycle. The Islamic economic system is emerging as a reliable alternative to the interest based system. This study is proposed to ascertain the motivational factors encouraging people to go for Islamic banking in Pakistan. These pulsing factors are determined by generation of hypothesis that there are certain factors which are urging people to opt Islamic banking system and to see the differences in their ranking by applying Friedman test. These factors include: Economically derived factors such as stability of Islamic banks in crisis, profit and loss sharing doctrine and equity sharing etc. This study also highlights the religiously derived factors such as interest free banking, Shariah tenets and supervisory of Islamic Shariah board and sociopsychological factors.

Keywords: Islamic banking, motivational factors, religiousfactors, socio-psychological factors and economic factors

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Authors: Maria E. Eggink

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Innovation plays an important role in economic growth and development. Evolutionary economics has entrepreneurs at the centre of the innovation system, but includes all other participants as contributors to the performance of the innovation system. Education and training institutions, one of the participants in the innovation system, contributes in different ways to human capital. The gap in literature on the competence building as part of human capital in the analysis of innovation systems is addressed in this paper. The Mpumalanga Province of South Africa is used as a case study. It was found that the absence of a university, the level of education, the quality and performance in the education sector and the condition of the education infrastructure have not been conducive to learning.

Keywords: Education institutions, human capital, innovation systems, Mpumalanga Province.

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Authors: Ε. Giovanis

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In this paper we present a Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy System (ANFIS) with inputs the lagged dependent variable for the prediction of Gross domestic Product growth rate in six countries. We compare the results with those of Autoregressive (AR) model. We conclude that the forecasting performance of neuro-fuzzy-system in the out-of-sample period is much more superior and can be a very useful alternative tool used by the national statistical services and the banking and finance industry.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Forecasting, Gross DomesticProduct, Neuro-Fuzzy

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