Search results for: Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)

Authors: Mohamed Abdallah, Mostafa Warith, Roberto Narbaitz, Emil Petriu, Kevin Kennedy

Abstract:

Heterogeneity of solid waste characteristics as well as the complex processes taking place within the landfill ecosystem motivated the implementation of soft computing methodologies such as artificial neural networks (ANN), fuzzy logic (FL), and their combination. The present work uses a hybrid ANN-FL model that employs knowledge-based FL to describe the process qualitatively and implements the learning algorithm of ANN to optimize model parameters. The model was developed to simulate and predict the landfill gas production at a given time based on operational parameters. The experimental data used were compiled from lab-scale experiment that involved various operating scenarios. The developed model was validated and statistically analyzed using F-test, linear regression between actual and predicted data, and mean squared error measures. Overall, the simulated landfill gas production rates demonstrated reasonable agreement with actual data. The discussion focused on the effect of the size of training datasets and number of training epochs.

Keywords: Adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), gas production, landfill

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Authors: Ohn Zin Lin, Okka, Cho Cho Myint

Abstract:

It is important to consider the effects of transformers on distribution system because they have the highest impact on system reliability. It is generally said that parallel operation of transformers (POT) can improve the system reliability. However, the estimation approach can be also considered for accuracy. In this paper, we propose a three-state components model and equations to determine the reliability improvement by POT, and cooperation of POT and distributed generation (DG). Based on the proposed model and techniques, the effect of POT is analyzed in four different tests with the consideration of conventional distribution system, distribution automation system (DAS) and DG. According to the results, the reliability is greatly improved by cooperation of POT, DAS and DG. The proposed model and methods are applicable to not only developing countries which have conventional distribution system but also developed countries in which DAS has already installed.

Keywords: Distribution system, reliability, dispersed generator, energy not supply, transformer parallel operation.

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Authors: E. T. L. Cöuras Ford, V. A. C. Vale, J. U. L. Mendes, R. M. Nascimento

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The great majority of the applications of thermal isolation in the strip of drops and averages temperatures (up to 200ºC), it is made of materials aggressive nature, such an as glass wool, rock wool, polystyrene, EPS among others. Such materials, in spite of the effectiveness in the retention of the flow of heat, possess considerable cost and when discarded they are long years to be to decompose. In that context, trying to adapt the world politics the about of the preservation of the environment, a study began with intention of developing a material composite, with properties of thermal, originating from insulating industrial residues. In this research, the behavior of the composite was analyzed, as submitted the fire. For this, the reaction rehearsals were accomplished to the fire for the composites 2:1; 1:1; 1:2 and for the Latex, based in the "con" experiment in agreement with the norm ASTM - E 1334 - 90. As consequence, in function of the answers of the system was possible to be observed to the acting of each mixture proportion.

Keywords: Composite, Latex, Reaction to the fire.

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Authors: P.-W. Tsai, C.-Y. Chen, C.-W. Chen

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In this paper, the stability analysis of a GA-Based adaptive fuzzy sliding model controller for a nonlinear system is discussed. First, a nonlinear plant is well-approximated and described with a reference model and a fuzzy model, both involving FLC rules. Then, FLC rules and the consequent parameter are decided on via an Evolved Bat Algorithm (EBA). After this, we guarantee a new tracking performance inequality for the control system. The tracking problem is characterized to solve an eigenvalue problem (EVP). Next, an adaptive fuzzy sliding model controller (AFSMC) is proposed to stabilize the system so as to achieve good control performance. Lyapunov’s direct method can be used to ensure the stability of the nonlinear system. It is shown that the stability analysis can reduce nonlinear systems into a linear matrix inequality (LMI) problem. Finally, a numerical simulation is provided to demonstrate the control methodology.

Keywords: Adaptive fuzzy sliding mode control, Lyapunov direct method, swarm intelligence, evolved bat algorithm.

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Authors: Devdutt, M. L. Aggarwal

Abstract:

Semi-active Fuzzy control of quarter car system having three degrees of freedom and assembled with magneto-rheological (MR) shock absorber is studied in present paper. First, experimental work was performed on an MR shock absorber under different excitation conditions to obtain force-displacement and force-velocity curves. Then, for the application of experimental data in semi-active quarter car system, a polynomial model was selected. Finally, Fuzzy logic controller was designed having the combination of Forward fuzzy controller and Inverse fuzzy controller for integration in secondary suspension system of concerned model. The proposed controlled quarter car model was compared with uncontrolled system using simulation work under bump type of road excitation. Results obtained by simulation work shows the effectiveness of fuzzy controlled suspension system in improving the ride comfort and safety of travelling passengers compared to uncontrolled suspension system.

Keywords: MR shock absorber, three degrees of freedom, quarter car model, fuzzy controller.

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Authors: Marcello Bettoni

Abstract:

As a learning theory tries to borrow from science a framework to found its method, it shows paradoxes and paralysing contraddictions. This results, on one hand, from adopting a learning/teaching model as it were a mere “transfer of data" (mechanical learning approach), and on the other hand from borrowing the complexity theory (an indeterministic and non-linear model), that risks to vanish every educational effort. This work is aimed at describing existing criticism, unveiling the antinomic nature of such paradoxes, focussing on a view where neither the mechanical learning perspective nor the chaotic and nonlinear model can threaten and jeopardize the educational work. Author intends to go back over the steps that led to these paradoxes and to unveil their antinomic nature. Actually this could serve the purpose to explain some current misunderstandings about the real usefulness of Ict within the youth-s learning process and growth.

Keywords: Antinomy, complexity, Leibniz, paradox

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Authors: Erjola Reufi, Jozefita Marku, Thomas Bier

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Ultrasonic pulse velocity (UPV) method has been shown for some time to provide a reliable means of estimating properties and offers a unique opportunity for direct, quick and safe control of building damaged by earthquake, fatigue, conflagration and catastrophic scenarios. On this investigation hybrid reinforced concrete has been investigated by UPV method. Hooked end steel fiber of length 50 and 30 mm was added to concrete in different proportion 0, 0.25, 0.5, and 1 % by the volume of concrete. On the other hand, polypropylene fiber of length 12, 6, 3 mm was added to concrete of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.4 % by the volume of concrete. Fifteen different mixture has been prepared to investigate the relation between compressive strength and UPV values and also to investigate on the effect of volume and type of fiber on UPV values.

Keywords: Compressive strength, polypropylene fiber, steel fiber, ultrasonic pulse velocity, volume, type of fiber.

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Authors: Amir Vahid Dastjerdi, Kamalrulnizam Abu Bakar

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The first generation of Mobile Agents based Intrusion Detection System just had two components namely data collection and single centralized analyzer. The disadvantage of this type of intrusion detection is if connection to the analyzer fails, the entire system will become useless. In this work, we propose novel hybrid model for Mobile Agent based Distributed Intrusion Detection System to overcome the current problem. The proposed model has new features such as robustness, capability of detecting intrusion against the IDS itself and capability of updating itself to detect new pattern of intrusions. In addition, our proposed model is also capable of tackling some of the weaknesses of centralized Intrusion Detection System models.

Keywords: Distributed Intrusion Detection System, Mobile Agents, Network Security.

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Authors: Juha Korpijärvi, Jari Kortelainen

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The paper presents dynamic programming based model as a planning tool for the maintenance of electric power systems. Every distribution component has an exponential age depending reliability function to model the fault risk. In the moment of time when the fault costs exceed the investment costs of the new component the reinvestment of the component should be made. However, in some cases the overhauling of the old component may be more economical than the reinvestment. The comparison between overhauling and reinvestment is made by optimisation process. The goal of the optimisation process is to find the cost minimising maintenance program for electric power distribution system.

Keywords: Dynamic programming, Electric distribution system, Maintenance

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Authors: Yeşim Tosun, Remzi Şahin

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This paper presents results of compressive strength, capillary water absorption, and density tests conducted on concrete containing recycled aggregate (RCA) which is obtained from structural waste generated by the construction industry in Turkey. In the experiments, 0%, 15%, 30%, 45% and 60% of the normal (natural) coarse aggregate was replaced by the recycled aggregate. Maximum aggregate particle sizes were selected as 16 mm, 22,4 mm and 31,5 mm; and 0,06%, 0,13% and 0,20% of air-entraining agent (AEA) were used in mixtures. Fly ash and superplasticizer were used as a mineral and chemical admixture, respectively. The same type (CEM I 42.5) and constant dosage of cement were used in the study. Water/cement ratio was kept constant as 0.53 for all mixture. It was concluded that capillary water absorption, compressive strength, and density of concrete decreased with increasing RCA ratio. Increasing in maximum aggregate particle size and amount of AEA also affect the properties of concrete significantly.

Keywords: Capillary water absorption, compressive strength, density, recycled concrete aggregates.

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Authors: D. Zabala, N. Sánchez, J. Pinto

Abstract:

A transient heat transfer mathematical model for the prediction of temperature distribution in the car body during primer baking has been developed by considering the thermal radiation and convection in the furnace chamber and transient heat conduction governing equations in the car framework. The car cockpit is considered like a structure with six flat plates, four vertical plates representing the car doors and the rear and front panels. The other two flat plates are the car roof and floor. The transient heat conduction in each flat plate is modeled by the lumped capacitance method. Comparison with the experimental data shows that the heat transfer model works well for the prediction of thermal behavior of the car body in the curing furnace, with deviations below 5%.

Keywords: Transient heat transfer, car body, lumpedcapacitance, primer baking.

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Authors: C. I. Abiodun, S. O. Azi, J. S. Ojo, P. Akinyemi

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The design of accurate and reliable mobile communication systems depends majorly on the suitability of path loss prediction methods and the adaptability of the methods to various environments of interest. In this research, the results of the adaptability of radio channel behavior are presented based on practical measurements carried out in the 1800 MHz frequency band. The measurements are carried out in typical urban, suburban and rural environments in Ekiti State, Southwestern part of Nigeria. A total number of seven base stations of MTN GSM service located in the studied environments were monitored. Path loss and break point distances were deduced from the measured received signal strength (RSS) and a practical path loss model is proposed based on the deduced break point distances. The proposed two slope model, regression line and four existing path loss models were compared with the measured path loss values. The standard deviations of each model with respect to the measured path loss were estimated for each base station. The proposed model and regression line exhibited lowest standard deviations followed by the Cost231-Hata model when compared with the Erceg Ericsson and SUI models. Generally, the proposed two-slope model shows closest agreement with the measured values with a mean error values of 2 to 6 dB. These results show that, either the proposed two slope model or Cost 231-Hata model may be used to predict path loss values in mobile micro cell coverage in the well-considered environments. Information from this work will be useful for link design of microwave band wireless access systems in the region.

Keywords: Break-point distances, path loss models, path loss exponent, received signal strength.

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Authors: Haowei Chen, Kaiqi Xiong

Abstract:

We have developed a better model for understanding the dynamics of malware spread in WMNs in this paper. The suggested model provides an insight into how viral propagation with energy exhaustion and various dispersed node densities might function. Based on a theoretical examination of the suggested model, we conclude that the threshold parameter could be used to identify the dynamics of viral spread globally. When the threshold is less than 1, the virus may be contained, but if it is greater than 1, a pandemic may result. Lastly, we discuss the various viral propagation strategies in relation to the distributed node densities and communication radii in WMNs. The aforementioned numerical simulation findings could serve as a guarantee of the theoretical analyses’ correctness.

Keywords: Bluetooth Security, Malware Propagation, Wireless Mesh Networks, Stability Analysis.

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Authors: Keuk Jong Yu, Sang Hee Kang, Sung Chang You

Abstract:

In Korea, the technology of a load fo nuclear power plant has been being developed. automatic controller which is able to control temperature and axial power distribution was developed. identification algorithm and a model predictive contact former transforms the nuclear reactor status into numerically. And the latter uses them and ge manipulated values such as two kinds of control ro this automatic controller, the performance of a coperation was evaluated. As a result, the automatic generated model parameters of a nuclear react to nuclear reactor average temperature and axial power the desired targets during a daily load follow.

Keywords: axial power distribution, model reactor temperature, system identification

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Authors: Santosh Kr. Choudhary

Abstract:

In this paper, fractional order feedback control of a ball beam model is investigated. The ball beam model is a particular example of the double Integrator system having strongly nonlinear characteristics and unstable dynamics which make the control of such system a challenging task. Most of the work in fractional order control systems are in theoretical nature and controller design and its implementation in practice is very small. In this work, a successful attempt has been made to design a fractional order PIλDμcontroller for a benchmark laboratory ball and beam model. Better performance can be achieved using a fractional order PID controller and it is demonstrated through simulations results with a comparison to the classic PID controller.

Keywords: Fractional order calculus, fractional order controller, fractional order system, ball and beam system, PIλDμ controller, modelling, simulation.

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Authors: Kaustubh Chakradeo, Michael Delves, Sofya Titarenko

Abstract:

Malaria is a serious disease which affects hundreds of millions of people around the world, each year. If not treated in time, it can be fatal. Despite recent developments in malaria diagnostics, the microscopy method to detect malaria remains the most common. Unfortunately, the accuracy of microscopic diagnostics is dependent on the skill of the microscopist and limits the throughput of malaria diagnosis. With the development of Artificial Intelligence tools and Deep Learning techniques in particular, it is possible to lower the cost, while achieving an overall higher accuracy. In this paper, we present a VGG-based model and compare it with previously developed models for identifying infected cells. Our model surpasses most previously developed models in a range of the accuracy metrics. The model has an advantage of being constructed from a relatively small number of layers. This reduces the computer resources and computational time. Moreover, we test our model on two types of datasets and argue that the currently developed deep-learning-based methods cannot efficiently distinguish between infected and contaminated cells. A more precise study of suspicious regions is required.

Keywords: Malaria, deep learning, DL, convolution neural network, CNN, thin blood smears.

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Authors: Bahareh Amirjabbari, Nadia Bhuiyan

Abstract:

In recent decades, the lean methodology, and the development of its principles and concepts have widely been applied in supply chain management. One of the most important strategies of being lean is having efficient inventory within the chain. On the other hand, managing inventory efficiently requires appropriate management of safety stock in order to protect against increasing stretch in the breaking points of the supply chain, which in turn can result in possible reduction of inventory. This paper applies a safety stock cost minimization model in a manufacturing company. The model results in optimum levels and locations of safety stock within the company-s supply chain in order to minimize total logistics costs.

Keywords: Cost, efficient inventory, optimization, safety stock, supply chain

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Authors: Matura Unhasirikul, Nuanphan Naranong, Woatthichai Narkrugsa

Abstract:

Agricultural waste is mainly composed of cellulose and hemicelluloses which can be converted to sugars. The inexpensive reducing sugar from durian peel was obtained by hydrolysis with HCl concentration at 0.5-2.0% (v/v). The hydrolysis range of time was for 15-60 min when the mixture was autoclaved at 121 °C. The result showed that acid hydrolysis efficiency (AHE) highest to 80.99% at condition is 2.0%concentration for 15 min. Reducing sugar highest to 56.07 g/litre at condition is 2.0% concentration for 45min. Total sugar highest to 59.83 g/litre at condition is 2.0%concentration for 45min, which was not significant (p < 0.05) with condition 2.0% concentration for 30 min and 1.5 % concentration for 45 and 60 min. The increase in concentration increased AHE, reducing sugar and total sugar. The hydrolysis time had no effect on AHE, reducing sugar and total sugar. The maximum reducing sugars of each concentration were at hydrolysis time 45 min .The hydrolysated were analysis by HPLC, the results revealed that the principle of sugar were glucose, fructose and xylose.

Keywords: acid hydrolysis efficiency (AHE), reducing sugar, total sugar

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Authors: Karamitsos Ioannis, Orfanidis Konstantinos

Abstract:

In this paper an analysis of blackouts in electric power transmission systems is implemented using a model and studied in simple networks with a regular topology. The proposed model describes load demand and network improvements evolving on a slow timescale as well as the fast dynamics of cascading overloads and outages.

Keywords: Blackout, Generator, Load, Power Load.

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Authors: S. T. Tan, H. Hashim, W. S. Ho, C. T. Lee

Abstract:

Rapid economic development and population growth in Malaysia had accelerated the generation of solid waste. This issue gives pressure for effective management of municipal solid waste (MSW) to take place in Malaysia due to the increased cost of landfill. This paper discusses optimal planning of waste-to-energy (WTE) using a combinatorial simulation and optimization model through mixed integer linear programming (MILP) approach. The proposed multi-period model is tested in Iskandar Malaysia (IM) as case study for a period of 12 years (2011 -2025) to illustrate the economic potential and tradeoffs involved in this study. In this paper, 3 scenarios have been used to demonstrate the applicability of the model: (1) Incineration scenario (2) Landfill scenario (3) Optimal scenario. The model revealed that the minimum cost of electricity generation from 9,995,855 tonnes of MSW is estimated as USD 387million with a total electricity generation of 50MW /yr in the optimal scenario.

Keywords: Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP), optimization, solid waste management (SWM), Waste-to-energy (WTE).

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Authors: Thammasak Thianniwet, Satidchoke Phosaard, Wasan Pattara-Atikom

Abstract:

We proposed a technique to identify road traffic congestion levels from velocity of mobile sensors with high accuracy and consistent with motorists- judgments. The data collection utilized a GPS device, a webcam, and an opinion survey. Human perceptions were used to rate the traffic congestion levels into three levels: light, heavy, and jam. Then the ratings and velocity were fed into a decision tree learning model (J48). We successfully extracted vehicle movement patterns to feed into the learning model using a sliding windows technique. The parameters capturing the vehicle moving patterns and the windows size were heuristically optimized. The model achieved accuracy as high as 99.68%. By implementing the model on the existing traffic report systems, the reports will cover comprehensive areas. The proposed method can be applied to any parts of the world.

Keywords: intelligent transportation system (ITS), traffic congestion level, human judgment, decision tree (J48), geographic positioning system (GPS).

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Authors: Khaleel Sami Hamdan, Dong-Eok Kim, Sang-Ki Moon

Abstract:

An appropriate model to predict the size of the droplets resulting from the break-up with the structures will help in a better understanding and modeling of the two-phase flow calculations in the simulation of a reactor core loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA). A droplet behavior impacting on a hot surface above the Leidenfrost temperature was investigated. Droplets of known size and velocity were impacted to an inclined plate of hot temperature, and the behavior of the droplets was observed by a high-speed camera. It was found that for droplets of Weber number higher than a certain value, the higher the Weber number of the droplet the smaller the secondary droplets. The COBRA-TF model over-predicted the measured secondary droplet sizes obtained by the present experiment. A simple model for the secondary droplet size was proposed using the mass conservation equation. The maximum spreading diameter of the droplets was also compared to previous correlations and a fairly good agreement was found. A better prediction of the heat transfer in the case of LOCA can be obtained with the presented model.

Keywords: Break-up, droplet, impact, inclined hot plate, Leidenfrost temperature, LOCA.

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Authors: Yoon-Hyuk Choi

Abstract:

Studies on the distribution of traffic demands have been proceeding by providing traffic information for reducing greenhouse gases and reinforcing the road's competitiveness in the transport section, however, since it is preferentially required the extensive studies on the driver's behavior changing routes and its influence factors, this study has been developed a discriminant model for changing routes considering driving conditions including traffic conditions of roads and driver's preferences for information media. It is divided into three groups depending on driving conditions in group classification with the CART analysis, which is statistically meaningful. And the extent that driving conditions and preferred media affect a route change is examined through a discriminant analysis, and it is developed a discriminant model equation to predict a route change. As a result of building the discriminant model equation, it is shown that driving conditions affect a route change much more, the entire discriminant hit ratio is derived as 64.2%, and this discriminant equation shows high discriminant ability more than a certain degree.

Keywords: CART analysis, Diversion, Discriminant model, Driving conditions, and preferred media

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Authors: S. M. Anowarul Haque, Md. Asiful Islam

Abstract:

Electrical load forecasting is considered to be one of the most indispensable parts of a modern-day electrical power system. To ensure a reliable and efficient supply of electric energy, special emphasis should have been put on the predictive feature of electricity supply. Artificial Neural Network-based approaches have emerged to be a significant area of interest for electric load forecasting research. This paper proposed an Artificial Neural Network model based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm for improved electric load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh. The forecasting model is developed and simulated on the MATLAB environment with a large number of training datasets. The model is trained based on eight input parameters including historical load and weather data. The predicted load data are then compared with an available dataset for validation. The proposed neural network model is proved to be more reliable in terms of day-wise load forecasting for Mymensingh, Bangladesh.

Keywords: Load forecasting, artificial neural network, particle swarm optimization.

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Authors: Noureddine Seddari, Mohamed Belaoued, Salah Bougueroua

Abstract:

The modeling of complex systems is generally based on the decomposition of their components into sub-systems easier to handle. This division has to be made in a methodical way. In this paper, we introduce an industrial control system modeling and simulation based on the Multi-Agent System (MAS) methodology AALAADIN and more particularly the underlying conceptual model Agent/Group/Role (AGR). Indeed, in this division using AGR model, the overall system is decomposed into sub-systems in order to improve the understanding of regulation and control systems, and to simplify the implementation of the obtained agents and their groups, which are implemented using the Multi-Agents Development KIT (MAD-KIT) platform. This approach appears to us to be the most appropriate for modeling of this type of systems because, due to the use of MAS, it is possible to model real systems in which very complex behaviors emerge from relatively simple and local interactions between many different individuals, therefore a MAS is well adapted to describe a system from the standpoint of the activity of its components, that is to say when the behavior of the individuals is complex (difficult to describe with equations). The main aim of this approach is the take advantage of the performance, the scalability and the robustness that are intuitively provided by MAS.

Keywords: Complex systems, modeling and simulation, industrial control system, MAS, AALAADIN, AGR, MAD-KIT.

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Authors: Neha Khanduja

Abstract:

This paper presents a comparative analysis of continuously stirred tank reactor (CSTR) control based on adaptive control and optimal tuning of PID control based on particle swarm optimization. In the design of adaptive control, Model reference adaptive control (MRAC) scheme is used, in which the adaptation law have been developed by MIT rule & Lyapunov’s rule. In PSO control parameters of PID controller is tuned by using the concept of particle swarm optimization to get optimized operating point for minimum integral square error (ISE) condition. The results show the adjustment of PID parameters converting into the optimal operating point and the good control response can be obtained by the PSO technique.

Keywords: Model reference adaptive control (MRAC), optimal control, particle swarm optimization (PSO).

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Authors: Guoyuan Qi , Yskandar Hamam, Barend Jacobus van Wyk, Shengzhi Du

Abstract:

The majority of existing predictors for time series are model-dependent and therefore require some prior knowledge for the identification of complex systems, usually involving system identification, extensive training, or online adaptation in the case of time-varying systems. Additionally, since a time series is usually generated by complex processes such as the stock market or other chaotic systems, identification, modeling or the online updating of parameters can be problematic. In this paper a model-free predictor (MFP) for a time series produced by an unknown nonlinear system or process is derived using tracking theory. An identical derivation of the MFP using the property of the Newton form of the interpolating polynomial is also presented. The MFP is able to accurately predict future values of a time series, is stable, has few tuning parameters and is desirable for engineering applications due to its simplicity, fast prediction speed and extremely low computational load. The performance of the proposed MFP is demonstrated using the prediction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index.

Keywords: Forecast, model-free predictor, prediction, time series

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Authors: Azam Marjani, Saeed Shirazian

Abstract:

This work deals with modeling and simulation of SO2 removal in a ceramic membrane by means of FEM. A mass transfer model was developed to predict the performance of SO2 absorption in a chemical solvent. The model was based on solving conservation equations for gas component in the membrane. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) of mass and momentum were used to solve the model equations. The simulations aimed to obtain the distribution of gas concentration in the absorption process. The effect of the operating parameters on the efficiency of the ceramic membrane was evaluated. The modeling findings showed that the gas phase velocity has significant effect on the removal of gas whereas the liquid phase does not affect the SO2 removal significantly. It is also indicated that the main mass transfer resistance is placed in the membrane and gas phase because of high tortuosity of the ceramic membrane.

Keywords: Gas separation, finite element, ceramic, sulphur dioxide, simulation.

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Authors: Qiaozhen Song

Abstract:

Based on the feature of model disturbances and uncertainty being compensated dynamically in auto – disturbances-rejection-controller (ADRC), a new method using ADRC is proposed for the decoupling control of dispenser longitudinal movement in big flight envelope. Developed from nonlinear model directly, ADRC is especially suitable for dynamic model that has big disturbances. Furthermore, without changing the structure and parameters of the controller in big flight envelope, this scheme can simplify the design of flight control system. The simulation results in big flight envelope show that the system achieves high dynamic performance, steady state performance and the controller has strong robustness.

Keywords: ADRC, ESO, nonlinear system

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Authors: K. P. Oyeduntan, K. Oshinubi

Abstract:

Nigeria is referred as the ‘Giant of Africa’ due to high population, land mass and large economy. However, it still trails far behind many smaller economies in the continent in terms of maritime operations. As we have seen that the maritime industry is the sparkplug for national growth, because it houses the most crucial infrastructure that generates wealth for a nation, it is worrisome that a nation with six seaports lag in maritime activities. In this research, we have studied how the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the maritime transport influences the Nigerian economy. To do this, we applied Simple Linear Regression (SLR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Polynomial Regression Model (PRM), Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) to model the relationship between the nation’s Total GDP (TGDP) and the Maritime Transport GDP (MGDP) using a time series data of 20 years. The result showed that the MGDP is statistically significant to the Nigerian economy. Amongst the statistical tool applied, the PRM of order 4 describes the relationship better when compared to other methods. The recommendations presented in this study will guide policy makers and help improve the economy of Nigeria.

Keywords: Economy, GDP, maritime transport, port, regression.

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