Search results for: principal component regression
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1831

Search results for: principal component regression

1711 Categorical Data Modeling: Logistic Regression Software

Authors: Abdellatif Tchantchane

Abstract:

A Matlab based software for logistic regression is developed to enhance the process of teaching quantitative topics and assist researchers with analyzing wide area of applications where categorical data is involved. The software offers an option of performing stepwise logistic regression to select the most significant predictors. The software includes a feature to detect influential observations in data, and investigates the effect of dropping or misclassifying an observation on a predictor variable. The input data may consist either as a set of individual responses (yes/no) with the predictor variables or as grouped records summarizing various categories for each unique set of predictor variables' values. Graphical displays are used to output various statistical results and to assess the goodness of fit of the logistic regression model. The software recognizes possible convergence constraints when present in data, and the user is notified accordingly.

Keywords: Logistic regression, Matlab, Categorical data, Influential observation.

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1710 Research on the Problems of Housing Prices in Qingdao from a Macro Perspective

Authors: Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi, Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi

Abstract:

Qingdao is a seaside city. Taking into account the characteristics of Qingdao, this article established a multiple linear regression model to analyze the impact of macroeconomic factors on housing prices. We used stepwise regression method to make multiple linear regression analysis, and made statistical analysis of F test values and T test values. According to the analysis results, the model is continuously optimized. Finally, this article obtained the multiple linear regression equation and the influencing factors, and the reliability of the model was verified by F test and T test.

Keywords: Housing prices, multiple linear regression model, macroeconomic factors, Qingdao City.

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1709 Face Recognition using Radial Basis Function Network based on LDA

Authors: Byung-Joo Oh

Abstract:

This paper describes a method to improve the robustness of a face recognition system based on the combination of two compensating classifiers. The face images are preprocessed by the appearance-based statistical approaches such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA). LDA features of the face image are taken as the input of the Radial Basis Function Network (RBFN). The proposed approach has been tested on the ORL database. The experimental results show that the LDA+RBFN algorithm has achieved a recognition rate of 93.5%

Keywords: Face recognition, linear discriminant analysis, radial basis function network.

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1708 Analysis of Palm Perspiration Effect with SVM for Diabetes in People

Authors: Hamdi Melih Saraoğlu, Muhlis Yıldırım, Abdurrahman Özbeyaz, Feyzullah Temurtas

Abstract:

In this research, the diabetes conditions of people (healthy, prediabete and diabete) were tried to be identified with noninvasive palm perspiration measurements. Data clusters gathered from 200 subjects were used (1.Individual Attributes Cluster and 2. Palm Perspiration Attributes Cluster). To decrase the dimensions of these data clusters, Principal Component Analysis Method was used. Data clusters, prepared in that way, were classified with Support Vector Machines. Classifications with highest success were 82% for Glucose parameters and 84% for HbA1c parametres.

Keywords: Palm perspiration, Diabetes, Support Vector Machine, Classification.

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1707 Evolutionary Eigenspace Learning using CCIPCA and IPCA for Face Recognition

Authors: Ghazy M.R. Assassa, Mona F. M. Mursi, Hatim A. Aboalsamh

Abstract:

Traditional principal components analysis (PCA) techniques for face recognition are based on batch-mode training using a pre-available image set. Real world applications require that the training set be dynamic of evolving nature where within the framework of continuous learning, new training images are continuously added to the original set; this would trigger a costly continuous re-computation of the eigen space representation via repeating an entire batch-based training that includes the old and new images. Incremental PCA methods allow adding new images and updating the PCA representation. In this paper, two incremental PCA approaches, CCIPCA and IPCA, are examined and compared. Besides, different learning and testing strategies are proposed and applied to the two algorithms. The results suggest that batch PCA is inferior to both incremental approaches, and that all CCIPCAs are practically equivalent.

Keywords: Candid covariance-free incremental principal components analysis (CCIPCA), face recognition, incremental principal components analysis (IPCA).

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1706 Building the Reliability Prediction Model of Component-Based Software Architectures

Authors: Pham Thanh Trung, Huynh Quyet Thang

Abstract:

Reliability is one of the most important quality attributes of software. Based on the approach of Reussner and the approach of Cheung, we proposed the reliability prediction model of component-based software architectures. Also, the value of the model is shown through the experimental evaluation on a web server system.

Keywords: component-based architecture, reliability prediction model, software reliability engineering.

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1705 Estimating Regression Parameters in Linear Regression Model with a Censored Response Variable

Authors: Jesus Orbe, Vicente Nunez-Anton

Abstract:

In this work we study the effect of several covariates X on a censored response variable T with unknown probability distribution. In this context, most of the studies in the literature can be located in two possible general classes of regression models: models that study the effect the covariates have on the hazard function; and models that study the effect the covariates have on the censored response variable. Proposals in this paper are in the second class of models and, more specifically, on least squares based model approach. Thus, using the bootstrap estimate of the bias, we try to improve the estimation of the regression parameters by reducing their bias, for small sample sizes. Simulation results presented in the paper show that, for reasonable sample sizes and censoring levels, the bias is always smaller for the new proposals.

Keywords: Censored response variable, regression, bias.

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1704 Low Resolution Face Recognition Using Mixture of Experts

Authors: Fatemeh Behjati Ardakani, Fatemeh Khademian, Abbas Nowzari Dalini, Reza Ebrahimpour

Abstract:

Human activity is a major concern in a wide variety of applications, such as video surveillance, human computer interface and face image database management. Detecting and recognizing faces is a crucial step in these applications. Furthermore, major advancements and initiatives in security applications in the past years have propelled face recognition technology into the spotlight. The performance of existing face recognition systems declines significantly if the resolution of the face image falls below a certain level. This is especially critical in surveillance imagery where often, due to many reasons, only low-resolution video of faces is available. If these low-resolution images are passed to a face recognition system, the performance is usually unacceptable. Hence, resolution plays a key role in face recognition systems. In this paper we introduce a new low resolution face recognition system based on mixture of expert neural networks. In order to produce the low resolution input images we down-sampled the 48 × 48 ORL images to 12 × 12 ones using the nearest neighbor interpolation method and after that applying the bicubic interpolation method yields enhanced images which is given to the Principal Component Analysis feature extractor system. Comparison with some of the most related methods indicates that the proposed novel model yields excellent recognition rate in low resolution face recognition that is the recognition rate of 100% for the training set and 96.5% for the test set.

Keywords: Low resolution face recognition, Multilayered neuralnetwork, Mixture of experts neural network, Principal componentanalysis, Bicubic interpolation, Nearest neighbor interpolation.

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1703 Certain Data Dimension Reduction Techniques for application with ANN based MCS for Study of High Energy Shower

Authors: Gitanjali Devi, Kandarpa Kumar Sarma, Pranayee Datta, Anjana Kakoti Mahanta

Abstract:

Cosmic showers, from their places of origin in space, after entering earth generate secondary particles called Extensive Air Shower (EAS). Detection and analysis of EAS and similar High Energy Particle Showers involve a plethora of experimental setups with certain constraints for which soft-computational tools like Artificial Neural Network (ANN)s can be adopted. The optimality of ANN classifiers can be enhanced further by the use of Multiple Classifier System (MCS) and certain data - dimension reduction techniques. This work describes the performance of certain data dimension reduction techniques like Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and Self Organizing Map (SOM) approximators for application with an MCS formed using Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN). The data inputs are obtained from an array of detectors placed in a circular arrangement resembling a practical detector grid which have a higher dimension and greater correlation among themselves. The PCA, ICA and SOM blocks reduce the correlation and generate a form suitable for real time practical applications for prediction of primary energy and location of EAS from density values captured using detectors in a circular grid.

Keywords: EAS, Shower, Core, ANN, Location.

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1702 Probe of Crack Initiate at the Toe of Concrete Gravity Dam using Numerical Analysis

Authors: M. S. Salimi, H. Kiamanesh, N. Hedayat

Abstract:

In this survey the process of crack propagation at the toe of concrete gravity dam is investigated by applying principals and criteria of linear elastic fracture mechanic. Simulating process of earthquake conditions for three models of dam with different geometrical condition, in empty reservoir under plain stress is calculated through special fracture mechanic software FRANNC2D [1] for determining fracture mechanic criteria. The outcomes showed that in spite of the primary expectations, the simultaneous existence of fillet in both toe and heel area (model 3), the rate of maximum principal stress has not been decreased; however, even the maximum principal stress has increased, so it caused stress intensity factors increase which is undesirable. On the other hand, the dam with heel fillet has shown the best attitude and it is because of items like decreasing the rates of maximum and minimum principal stresses and also is related to decreasing the rates of stress intensity factors for 1st & 2nd modes of the model.

Keywords: Stress intensity factor, concrete gravity dam, numerical analysis, geometry of toe.

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1701 Fuzzy Multi-Component DEA with Shared and Undesirable Fuzzy Resources

Authors: Jolly Puri, Shiv Prasad Yadav

Abstract:

Multi-component data envelopment analysis (MC-DEA) is a popular technique for measuring aggregate performance of the decision making units (DMUs) along with their components. However, the conventional MC-DEA is limited to crisp input and output data which may not always be available in exact form. In real life problems, data may be imprecise or fuzzy. Therefore, in this paper, we propose (i) a fuzzy MC-DEA (FMC-DEA) model in which shared and undesirable fuzzy resources are incorporated, (ii) the proposed FMC-DEA model is transformed into a pair of crisp models using α cut approach, (iii) fuzzy aggregate performance of a DMU and fuzzy efficiencies of components are defined to be fuzzy numbers, and (iv) a numerical example is illustrated to validate the proposed approach.

Keywords: Multi-component DEA, fuzzy multi-component DEA, fuzzy resources.

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1700 New Curriculum and New Challenges: What do School Administrators Really Do?

Authors: Zuhal Zeybekoglu Calıskan, Erkan Tabancali

Abstract:

The aim of this qualitative case study is to examine how school principals perform their new roles and responsibilities defined in accordance with the new curriculum. Of ten primary schools that the new curriculum was piloted in Istanbul in school year of 2004-2005, one school was randomly selected as the sample of the study. The participants of the study were comprised of randomly-selected 26 teachers working in the case school. To collect data, an interview schedule was developed based on the new role definitions for school principals by the National Ministry of Education. Participants were interviewed on one-to-one basis in February and March 2007. Overall results showed that the school principal was perceived to be successful in terms of the application of the new curriculum in school. According to the majority of teachers, the principal has done his best to establish the infrastructure that is necessary for successful application of the new program. In addition to these, the principal was reported to adopt a collegial and participatory leadership style by creating a positive school atmosphere that enables the school community (teachers, parents and students) to involve school more than before. Keywordscase study, curriculum implementation, school principals and curriculum

Keywords: Case study, curriculum implementation, school principals and curriculum.

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1699 Designing Social Care Policies in the Long Term: A Study Using Regression, Clustering and Backpropagation Neural Nets

Authors: Sotirios Raptis

Abstract:

Linking social needs to social classes using different criteria may lead to social services misuse. The paper discusses using ML and Neural Networks (NNs) in linking public services in Scotland in the long term and advocates, this can result in a reduction of the services cost connecting resources needed in groups for similar services. The paper combines typical regression models with clustering and cross-correlation as complementary constituents to predict the demand. Insurance companies and public policymakers can pack linked services such as those offered to the elderly or to low-income people in the longer term. The work is based on public data from 22 services offered by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland and from the Scottish Government (SG) from 1981 to 2019 that are broken into 110 years series called factors and uses Linear Regression (LR), Autoregression (ARMA) and 3 types of back-propagation (BP) Neural Networks (BPNN) to link them under specific conditions. Relationships found were between smoking related healthcare provision, mental health-related health services, and epidemiological weight in Primary 1(Education) Body Mass Index (BMI) in children. Primary component analysis (PCA) found 11 significant factors while C-Means (CM) clustering gave 5 major factors clusters.

Keywords: Probability, cohorts, data frames, services, prediction.

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1698 A Survey of Business Component Identification Methods and Related Techniques

Authors: Zhongjie Wang, Xiaofei Xu, Dechen Zhan

Abstract:

With deep development of software reuse, componentrelated technologies have been widely applied in the development of large-scale complex applications. Component identification (CI) is one of the primary research problems in software reuse, by analyzing domain business models to get a set of business components with high reuse value and good reuse performance to support effective reuse. Based on the concept and classification of CI, its technical stack is briefly discussed from four views, i.e., form of input business models, identification goals, identification strategies, and identification process. Then various CI methods presented in literatures are classified into four types, i.e., domain analysis based methods, cohesion-coupling based clustering methods, CRUD matrix based methods, and other methods, with the comparisons between these methods for their advantages and disadvantages. Additionally, some insufficiencies of study on CI are discussed, and the causes are explained subsequently. Finally, it is concluded with some significantly promising tendency about research on this problem.

Keywords: Business component, component granularity, component identification, reuse performance.

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1697 Complexity of Component-based Development of Embedded Systems

Authors: M. Zheng, V. S. Alagar

Abstract:

The paper discusses complexity of component-based development (CBD) of embedded systems. Although CBD has its merits, it must be augmented with methods to control the complexities that arise due to resource constraints, timeliness, and run-time deployment of components in embedded system development. Software component specification, system-level testing, and run-time reliability measurement are some ways to control the complexity.

Keywords: Components, embedded systems, complexity, softwaredevelopment, traffic controller system.

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1696 A Dynamic Programming Model for Maintenance of Electric Distribution System

Authors: Juha Korpijärvi, Jari Kortelainen

Abstract:

The paper presents dynamic programming based model as a planning tool for the maintenance of electric power systems. Every distribution component has an exponential age depending reliability function to model the fault risk. In the moment of time when the fault costs exceed the investment costs of the new component the reinvestment of the component should be made. However, in some cases the overhauling of the old component may be more economical than the reinvestment. The comparison between overhauling and reinvestment is made by optimisation process. The goal of the optimisation process is to find the cost minimising maintenance program for electric power distribution system.

Keywords: Dynamic programming, Electric distribution system, Maintenance

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1695 An Adverse Model for Price Discrimination in the Case of Monopoly

Authors: Daniela Elena Marinescu, Ioana Manafi, Dumitru Marin

Abstract:

We consider a Principal-Agent model with the Principal being a seller who does not know perfectly how much the buyer (the Agent) is willing to pay for the good. The buyer-s preferences are hence his private information. The model corresponds to the nonlinear pricing problem of Maskin and Riley. We assume there are three types of Agents. The model is solved using “informational rents" as variables. In the last section we present the main characteristics of the optimal contracts in asymmetric information and some possible extensions of the model.

Keywords: Adverse selection, asymmetric information, informational rent, nonlinear pricing, optimal contract

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1694 Classification of Non Stationary Signals Using Ben Wavelet and Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: Mohammed Benbrahim, Khalid Benjelloun, Aomar Ibenbrahim, Adil Daoudi

Abstract:

The automatic classification of non stationary signals is an important practical goal in several domains. An essential classification task is to allocate the incoming signal to a group associated with the kind of physical phenomena producing it. In this paper, we present a modular system composed by three blocs: 1) Representation, 2) Dimensionality reduction and 3) Classification. The originality of our work consists in the use of a new wavelet called "Ben wavelet" in the representation stage. For the dimensionality reduction, we propose a new algorithm based on the random projection and the principal component analysis.

Keywords: Seismic signals, Ben Wavelet, Dimensionality reduction, Artificial neural networks, Classification.

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1693 Performance Assessment and Optimization of the After-Sale Networks

Authors: H. Izadbakhsh, M.Hour Ali, A. Amirkhani, A. Montazeri, M. Saberi

Abstract:

The after–sales activities are nowadays acknowledged as a relevant source of revenue, profit and competitive advantage in most manufacturing industries. Top and middle management, therefore, should focus on the definition of a structured business performance measurement system for the after-sales business. The paper aims at filling this gap, and presents an integrated methodology for the after-sales network performance measurement, and provides an empirical application to automotive case companies and their official service network. This is the first study that presents an integrated multivariate approach for total assessment and improvement of after-sale services.

Keywords: Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Automotive companies, After-sale services.

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1692 Sensor Monitoring of the Concentrations of Different Gases Present in Synthesis of Ammonia Based On Multi-Scale Entropy and Multivariate Statistics

Authors: S. Aouabdi, M. Taibi

Abstract:

This paper presents powerful techniques for the development of a new monitoring method based on multi-scale entropy (MSE) in order to characterize the behaviour of the concentrations of different gases present in the synthesis of Ammonia and soft-sensor based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA).

Keywords: Ammonia synthesis, concentrations of different gases, soft sensor, multi-scale entropy, multivariate statistics.

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1691 Quality of Service Evaluation using a Combination of Fuzzy C-Means and Regression Model

Authors: Aboagela Dogman, Reza Saatchi, Samir Al-Khayatt

Abstract:

In this study, a network quality of service (QoS) evaluation system was proposed. The system used a combination of fuzzy C-means (FCM) and regression model to analyse and assess the QoS in a simulated network. Network QoS parameters of multimedia applications were intelligently analysed by FCM clustering algorithm. The QoS parameters for each FCM cluster centre were then inputted to a regression model in order to quantify the overall QoS. The proposed QoS evaluation system provided valuable information about the network-s QoS patterns and based on this information, the overall network-s QoS was effectively quantified.

Keywords: Fuzzy C-means; regression model, network quality of service

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1690 Normalization Discriminant Independent Component Analysis

Authors: Liew Yee Ping, Pang Ying Han, Lau Siong Hoe, Ooi Shih Yin, Housam Khalifa Bashier Babiker

Abstract:

In face recognition, feature extraction techniques attempts to search for appropriate representation of the data. However, when the feature dimension is larger than the samples size, it brings performance degradation. Hence, we propose a method called Normalization Discriminant Independent Component Analysis (NDICA). The input data will be regularized to obtain the most reliable features from the data and processed using Independent Component Analysis (ICA). The proposed method is evaluated on three face databases, Olivetti Research Ltd (ORL), Face Recognition Technology (FERET) and Face Recognition Grand Challenge (FRGC). NDICA showed it effectiveness compared with other unsupervised and supervised techniques.

Keywords: Face recognition, small sample size, regularization, independent component analysis.

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1689 Defect Cause Modeling with Decision Tree and Regression Analysis

Authors: B. Bakır, İ. Batmaz, F. A. Güntürkün, İ. A. İpekçi, G. Köksal, N. E. Özdemirel

Abstract:

The main aim of this study is to identify the most influential variables that cause defects on the items produced by a casting company located in Turkey. To this end, one of the items produced by the company with high defective percentage rates is selected. Two approaches-the regression analysis and decision treesare used to model the relationship between process parameters and defect types. Although logistic regression models failed, decision tree model gives meaningful results. Based on these results, it can be claimed that the decision tree approach is a promising technique for determining the most important process variables.

Keywords: Casting industry, decision tree algorithm C5.0, logistic regression, quality improvement.

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1688 Pattern Recognition Based Prosthesis Control for Movement of Forearms Using Surface and Intramuscular EMG Signals

Authors: Anjana Goen, D. C. Tiwari

Abstract:

Myoelectric control system is the fundamental component of modern prostheses, which uses the myoelectric signals from an individual’s muscles to control the prosthesis movements. The surface electromyogram signal (sEMG) being noninvasive has been used as an input to prostheses controllers for many years. Recent technological advances has led to the development of implantable myoelectric sensors which enable the internal myoelectric signal (MES) to be used as input to these prostheses controllers. The intramuscular measurement can provide focal recordings from deep muscles of the forearm and independent signals relatively free of crosstalk thus allowing for more independent control sites. However, little work has been done to compare the two inputs. In this paper we have compared the classification accuracy of six pattern recognition based myoelectric controllers which use surface myoelectric signals recorded using untargeted (symmetric) surface electrode arrays to the same controllers with multichannel intramuscular myolectric signals from targeted intramuscular electrodes as inputs. There was no significant enhancement in the classification accuracy as a result of using the intramuscular EMG measurement technique when compared to the results acquired using the surface EMG measurement technique. Impressive classification accuracy (99%) could be achieved by optimally selecting only five channels of surface EMG.

Keywords: Discriminant Locality Preserving Projections (DLPP), myoelectric signal (MES), Sparse Principal Component Analysis (SPCA), Time Frequency Representations (TFRs).

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1687 Anisotropic Shear Strength of Sand Containing Plastic Fine Materials

Authors: Alaa H. J. Al-Rkaby, A. Chegenizadeh, H. R. Nikraz

Abstract:

Anisotropy is one of the major aspects that affect soil behavior, and extensive efforts have investigated its effect on the mechanical properties of soil. However, very little attention has been given to the combined effect of anisotropy and fine contents. Therefore, in this paper, the anisotropic strength of sand containing different fine content (F) of 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20%, was investigated using hollow cylinder tests under different principal stress directions of α = 0° and α = 90°. For a given principal stress direction (α), it was found that increasing fine content resulted in decreasing deviator stress (q). Moreover, results revealed that all fine contents showed anisotropic strength where there is a clear difference between the strength under 0° and the strength under 90°. This anisotropy was greatest under F = 5% while it decreased with increasing fine contents, particularly at F = 10%. Mixtures with low fine content show low contractive behavior and tended to show more dilation. Moreover, all sand-clay mixtures exhibited less dilation and more compression at α = 90° compared with that at α = 0°.

Keywords: Anisotropy, principal stress direction, fine content, hollow cylinder sample.

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1686 An Overview of the Application of Fuzzy Inference System for the Automation of Breast Cancer Grading with Spectral Data

Authors: Shabbar Naqvi, Jonathan M. Garibaldi

Abstract:

Breast cancer is one of the most frequent occurring cancers in women throughout the world including U.K. The grading of this cancer plays a vital role in the prognosis of the disease. In this paper we present an overview of the use of advanced computational method of fuzzy inference system as a tool for the automation of breast cancer grading. A new spectral data set obtained from Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) of cancer patients has been used for this study. The future work outlines the potential areas of fuzzy systems that can be used for the automation of breast cancer grading.

Keywords: Breast cancer, FTIR, fuzzy inference system, principal component analysis

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1685 Performance Analysis of Adaptive LMS Filter through Regression Analysis using SystemC

Authors: Hyeong-Geon Lee, Jae-Young Park, Suk-ki Lee, Jong-Tae Kim

Abstract:

The LMS adaptive filter has several parameters which can affect their performance. From among these parameters, most papers handle the step size parameter for controlling the performance. In this paper, we approach three parameters: step-size, filter tap-size and filter form. The regression analysis is used for defining the relation between parameters and performance of LMS adaptive filter with using the system level simulation results. The results present that all parameters have performance trends in each own particular form, which can be estimated from equations drawn by regression analysis.

Keywords: System level model, adaptive LMS FIR filter, regression analysis, systemC.

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1684 Chaotic Properties of Hemodynamic Responsein Functional Near Infrared Spectroscopic Measurement of Brain Activity

Authors: Ni Ni Soe , Masahiro Nakagawa

Abstract:

Functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is a practical non-invasive optical technique to detect characteristic of hemoglobin density dynamics response during functional activation of the cerebral cortex. In this paper, fNIRS measurements were made in the area of motor cortex from C4 position according to international 10-20 system. Three subjects, aged 23 - 30 years, were participated in the experiment. The aim of this paper was to evaluate the effects of different motor activation tasks of the hemoglobin density dynamics of fNIRS signal. The chaotic concept based on deterministic dynamics is an important feature in biological signal analysis. This paper employs the chaotic properties which is a novel method of nonlinear analysis, to analyze and to quantify the chaotic property in the time series of the hemoglobin dynamics of the various motor imagery tasks of fNIRS signal. Usually, hemoglobin density in the human brain cortex is found to change slowly in time. An inevitable noise caused by various factors is to be included in a signal. So, principle component analysis method (PCA) is utilized to remove high frequency component. The phase pace is reconstructed and evaluated the Lyapunov spectrum, and Lyapunov dimensions. From the experimental results, it can be conclude that the signals measured by fNIRS are chaotic.

Keywords: Chaos, hemoglobin, Lyapunov spectrum, motorimagery, near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS), principal componentanalysis (PCA).

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1683 Model-Driven and Data-Driven Approaches for Crop Yield Prediction: Analysis and Comparison

Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

Abstract:

Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: Crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest.

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1682 Density Estimation using Generalized Linear Model and a Linear Combination of Gaussians

Authors: Aly Farag, Ayman El-Baz, Refaat Mohamed

Abstract:

In this paper we present a novel approach for density estimation. The proposed approach is based on using the logistic regression model to get initial density estimation for the given empirical density. The empirical data does not exactly follow the logistic regression model, so, there will be a deviation between the empirical density and the density estimated using logistic regression model. This deviation may be positive and/or negative. In this paper we use a linear combination of Gaussian (LCG) with positive and negative components as a model for this deviation. Also, we will use the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the parameters of LCG. Experiments on real images demonstrate the accuracy of our approach.

Keywords: Logistic regression model, Expectationmaximization, Segmentation.

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