Search results for: Lambda -Tau methodology

Authors: T. Jayanthi, K. Velusamy, H. Seetha, S. A. V. Satya Murty

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Verification and Validation of Simulated Process Model is the most important phase of the simulator life cycle. Evaluation of simulated process models based on Verification and Validation techniques checks the closeness of each component model (in a simulated network) with the real system/process with respect to dynamic behaviour under steady state and transient conditions. The process of Verification and Validation helps in qualifying the process simulator for the intended purpose whether it is for providing comprehensive training or design verification. In general, model verification is carried out by comparison of simulated component characteristics with the original requirement to ensure that each step in the model development process completely incorporates all the design requirements. Validation testing is performed by comparing the simulated process parameters to the actual plant process parameters either in standalone mode or integrated mode. A Full Scope Replica Operator Training Simulator for PFBR - Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor has been developed at IGCAR, Kalpakkam, INDIA named KALBR-SIM (Kalpakkam Breeder Reactor Simulator) where in the main participants are engineers/experts belonging to Modeling Team, Process Design and Instrumentation & Control design team. This paper discusses about the Verification and Validation process in general, the evaluation procedure adopted for PFBR operator training Simulator, the methodology followed for verifying the models, the reference documents and standards used etc. It details out the importance of internal validation by design experts, subsequent validation by external agency consisting of experts from various fields, model improvement by tuning based on expert’s comments, final qualification of the simulator for the intended purpose and the difficulties faced while co-coordinating various activities.

Keywords: Verification and Validation (V&V), Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR), Kalpakkam Breeder Reactor Simulator (KALBR-SIM), Steady State, Transient State.

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Authors: L. Bernabeo, T. Loftus

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Many children often experience phases of picky eating, food aversions and/or avoidance. For families with children who have special needs, these experiences are often exacerbated, which can lead to feelings that negatively impact a caregiver’s relationship with their child. Within the scope of speech language pathology practice, knowledge of both emotional and feeding development is key. This paper will explore the significance of “messy play” within typical feeding development, and the challenges that may arise if a child does not have the opportunity to engage in this type of exploratory play. This paper will consider several contributing factors that can result in a “picky eater.” Further, research has shown that individuals with special needs, including autism, possess a neurological makeup that differs from that of a typical individual. Because autism is a disorder of relating and communicating due to differences in the limbic system, an individual with special needs may respond to a typical feeding experience as if it is a traumatic event. As a result, broadening one’s dietary repertoire may seem to be an insurmountable challenge. This paper suggests that introducing new foods through exploratory play can help broaden and strengthen diets, as well as improve the feeding experience, of individuals with autism. The DIRFloortimeⓇ methodology stresses the importance of following a child's lead. Within this developmental model, there is a special focus on a person’s individual differences, including the unique way they process the world around them, as well as the significance of therapy occurring within the context of a strong and motivating relationship. Using this child-centered approach, we can support our children in expanding their diets, while simultaneously building upon their cognitive and creative development through playful and respectful interactions that include exposure to foods that differ in color, texture, and smell. Further, this paper explores the importance of exploration, self-feeding and messy play on brain development, both in the context of typically developing individuals and those with disordered development.

Keywords: Autism, development, exploration, feeding, play.

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Authors: R. Bužgová, R. Kozáková, M. Škutová, M. Bar, P. Ressner, P. Bártová

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Introduction: Currently, there has been an increasing concern about the provision of palliative care in non-oncological patients in both professional literature and clinical practice. However, there is not much scientific information on how to provide neurological and palliative care together. The main objective of the project is to create and to verify a concept of neuro-palliative and rehabilitative care for patients with selected neurological diseases in an advanced stage of the disease and also to evaluate bio-psychosocial and spiritual needs of these patients and their caregivers related to the quality of life using created standardized tools. Methodology: Triangulation of research methods (qualitative and quantitative) will be used. A concept of care and assessment tools will be developed by analyzing interviews and focus groups. Qualitative data will be analyzed using grounded theory. The concept of care will be tested in the context of the intervention study. Using quantitative analysis, we will assess the effect of an intervention provided on the saturation of needs, quality of life, and quality of care. A research sample will be made up of the patients with selected neurological diseases (Parkinson´s syndrome, motor neuron disease, multiple sclerosis, Huntington’s disease), together with patients´ family members. Based on the results, educational materials and a certified course for health care professionals will be created. Findings: Based on qualitative data analysis, we will propose the concept of integrated care model combining neurological, rehabilitative and specialist palliative care for patients with selected neurological diseases in different settings of care and services. Patients´ needs related to quality of life will be described by newly created and validated measuring tools before the start of intervention (application of neuro-palliative and palliative approach) and then in the time interval. Conclusion: Based on the results, educational materials and a certified course for doctors and health care professionals will be created.

Keywords: Multidisciplinary approach, neuropalliative care, research, quality of life.

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Authors: Péricles Maia Andrade, Temístocles Damasceno Silva, Hector Luiz Rodrigues Munaro

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The school physical education is going through several changes over the years, and diversification of its content from specific interests is one of the reasons for these changes, soon, the formality in education do not have to stay out, but needs to open up the possibilities offered by the world, so the Mountain Bike, an adventure sport, offers several opportunities for intervention Its application in the school allows diverse interventions in front of the psychomotor development, besides opening possibilities for other contents, respecting the previous experiences of the students in their common environment. The choice of theme was due to affinity with the practice and experience of the Mountain Bike at different levels. Both competitive as recreational, professional standard and amateur, focus as principle the bases of the Cycling, coupled with the inclusion in the Centre for Studies in Management of Sport and Leisure and of the Southwest Bahia State University and the preview of the modality's potential to help the children’s psychomotor development. The goal of this research was to demonstrate like a pilot project the effects of the Mountain Bike as psychomotor instrument in physical education at one of the psychomotor valences, Balance, evaluating Immobility, Static Balance and Dynamic Balance. The methodology used Fonseca’s Psychomotor Battery in 10 students (n=10) of a brazilian public primary’s school, with ages between 9 and 11 years old to use the Mountain Biking contents. The balance’s skills dichotomized in Regular and Good. Regarding the variable Immobility, in the initial test, regardless of gender, 70% (n = 7) were considered Regular. After four months of activity, the Good profile, which had only 30% (n = 3) of the sample, evolved to 60% (n = 6). As in Static and Dynamic Balance there was an increase of 30% (n = 3) and 50% (n = 5) respectively for Good. Between genders, female evolution was better for Good in Immobility and in Static Equilibrium. Already the male evolution was better observed in the Dynamic Equilibrium, with 66.7% (n = 4) for Good. Respecting the particularities of the motor development, an indication of the positive effects of the MTB for the evolution in the balance perceived, necessitating studies with greater sampling.

Keywords: Psychomotricity, balance, mountain biking, education.

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Authors: Matthew P. Mancini, Vincent Ribiere

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Today’s workers face more numerous and complex challenges and are required to be increasingly interdependent and faster learners. Knowledge sharing activities between people have been understood as a significant element affecting organizational innovation performance. While they do have the potential to spark cognitive conflict, disagreement is important from an organizational perspective because it can stimulate the development of new ideas and perhaps pave the way for creativity, innovation, and competitive advantage. How teams cope with the cognitive conflict dimension of knowledge sharing and the associated interpersonal risk is what captures our attention. Specifically, assertive conflict management strategies have a positive influence on knowledge sharing behaviors, and team psychological safety has a positive influence on knowledge sharing intention. This paper focuses on explaining the impact that these factors have on the shaping of an individual’s decision to engage or not in knowledge sharing activities. To accomplish this, we performed an empirical analysis on the results of our questionnaire about knowledge-sharing related conflict management and team psychological safety in pharmaceutical enterprises located in North America, Europe, and Asia. First, univariate analysis is used to characterize behavior regarding conflict management strategy into two groups. Group 1 presents assertive conflict management strategies and group 2 shows unassertive ones. Then, by using SEM methodology, we evaluated the relationships between them and the team psychological safety construct with the knowledge sharing process. The results of the SEM analysis show that assertive conflict management strategies affect the knowledge sharing process the most with a small, but significant effect from team psychological safety. The findings suggest that assertive conflict management strategies are just as important as knowledge sharing intentions for encouraging knowledge sharing behavior. This paper provides clear insights into how employees manage the sharing of their knowledge in the face of conflict and interpersonal risk and the relative importance of these factors in sustaining productive knowledge sharing activities.

Keywords: Cognitive dissonance, conflict management, knowledge sharing, organizational behavior, psychological safety.

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Authors: Anatoly Krivinsh

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The results of dissertation research "Preventing and  combating corruption in public procurement" are presented in this  publication. The study was conducted 2011 till 2013 in a Member  State of the European Union– in the Republic of Latvia.  Goal of the thesis is to explore corruption prevention and  combating issues in public procurement sphere, to identify the  prevalence rates, determinants and contributing factors and  prevention opportunities in Latvia.  In the first chapter the author analyzes theoretical aspects of  understanding corruption in public procurement, with particular  emphasis on corruption definition problem, its nature, causes and  consequences. A separate section is dedicated to the public  procurement concept, mechanism and legal framework. In the first  part of this work the author presents cognitive methodology of  corruption in public procurement field, based on which the author has  carried out an analysis of corruption situation in public procurement  in Republic of Latvia.  In the second chapter of the thesis, the author analyzes the  problem of corruption in public procurement, including its historical  aspects, typology and classification of corruption subjects involved,  corruption risk elements in public procurement and their  identification. During the development of the second chapter author's  practical experience in public procurements was widely used.  The third and fourth chapter deals with issues related to the  prevention and combating corruption in public procurement, namely  the operation of the concept, principles, methods and techniques,  subjects in Republic of Latvia, as well as an analysis of foreign  experience in preventing and combating corruption. The fifth chapter  is devoted to the corruption prevention and combating perspectives  and their assessment. In this chapter the author has made the  evaluation of corruption prevention and combating measures  efficiency in Republic of Latvia, assessment of anti-corruption  legislation development stage in public procurement field in Latvia. 

Keywords: Prevention of corruption, public purchases.

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Authors: Matthew D. Baffa

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Infrared thermography is a non-destructive test method used to estimate surface temperatures based on the amount of electromagnetic energy radiated by building envelope components. These surface temperatures are indicators of various qualitative building envelope deficiencies such as locations and extent of heat loss, thermal bridging, damaged or missing thermal insulation, air leakage, and moisture presence in roof, floor, and wall assemblies. Although infrared thermography is commonly used for qualitative deficiency detection in buildings, this study assesses its use as a quantitative method to estimate the overall thermal conductance value (U-value) of the exterior above-grade walls of a study home. The overall U-value of exterior above-grade walls in a home provides useful insight into the energy consumption and thermal comfort of a home. Three methodologies from the literature were employed to estimate the overall U-value by equating conductive heat loss through the exterior above-grade walls to the sum of convective and radiant heat losses of the walls. Outdoor infrared thermography field measurements of the exterior above-grade wall surface and reflective temperatures and emissivity values for various components of the exterior above-grade wall assemblies were carried out during winter months at the study home using a basic thermal imager device. The overall U-values estimated from each methodology from the literature using the recorded field measurements were compared to the nominal exterior above-grade wall overall U-value calculated from materials and dimensions detailed in architectural drawings of the study home. The nominal overall U-value was validated through calendarization and weather normalization of utility bills for the study home as well as various estimated heat loss quantities from a HOT2000 computer model of the study home and other methods. Under ideal environmental conditions, the estimated overall U-values deviated from the nominal overall U-value between ±2% to ±33%. This study suggests infrared thermography can estimate the overall U-value of exterior above-grade walls in low-rise residential homes with a fair amount of accuracy.

Keywords: Emissivity, heat loss, infrared thermography, thermal conductance.

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Authors: R. Sekula

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Epoxy composites are broadly used as an electrical insulation for the high voltage applications since only such materials can fulfill particular mechanical, thermal, and dielectric requirements. However, properties of the final product are strongly dependent on proper manufacturing process with minimized material failures, as too large shrinkage, voids and cracks. Therefore, application of proper materials (epoxy, hardener, and filler) and process parameters (mold temperature, filling time, filling velocity, initial temperature of internal parts, gelation time), as well as design and geometric parameters are essential features for final quality of the produced components. In this paper, an approach for three-dimensional modeling of all molding stages, namely filling, curing and post-curing is presented. The reactive molding simulation tool is based on a commercial CFD package, and include dedicated models describing viscosity and reaction kinetics that have been successfully implemented to simulate the reactive nature of the system with exothermic effect. Also a dedicated simulation procedure for stress and shrinkage calculations, as well as simulation results are presented in the paper. Second part of the paper is dedicated to recent developments on formulations of functional composites for electrical insulation applications, focusing on thermally conductive materials. Concepts based on filler modifications for epoxy electrical composites have been presented, including the results of the obtained properties. Finally, having in mind tough environmental regulations, in addition to current process and design aspects, an approach for product re-design has been presented focusing on replacement of epoxy material with the thermoplastic one. Such “design-for-recycling” method is one of new directions associated with development of new material and processing concepts of electrical products and brings a lot of additional research challenges. For that, one of the successful products has been presented to illustrate the presented methodology.

Keywords: Curing, epoxy insulation, numerical simulations, recycling.

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Authors: Dejana Bouillet, Vlatka Domović

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Both policymakers and researchers recognize that participating in early childhood education and care (ECEC) is useful for all children, especially for those who are exposed to the high risk of social exclusion. Social exclusion of children is understood as a multidimensional construct including economic, social, cultural, health, and other aspects of disadvantage and deprivation, which individually or combined can have an unfavorable effect on the current life and development of a child, as well as on the child’s development and on disadvantaged life chances in adult life. ECEC institutions should be able to promote educational approaches that portray developmental, cultural, language, and other diversity amongst children. However, little is known about the ways in which Croatian ECEC institutions recognize and respect the diversity of children and their families and how they respond to their educational needs. That is why this paper is dedicated to the analysis of the capacities of ECEC professionals to respond to the demands of educational needs of this very diverse group of children and their families. The results obtained in the frame of the project “Models of response to educational needs of children at risk of social exclusion in ECEC institutions,” funded by the Croatian Science Foundation, will be presented. The research methodology arises from explanations of educational processes and risks of social exclusion as a complex and heterogeneous phenomenon. The preliminary results of the qualitative data analysis of educational practices regarding capacities to identify and appropriately respond to the requirements of children at risk of social exclusion will be presented. The data have been collected by interviewing educational staff in 10 Croatian ECEC institutions (n = 10). The questions in the interviews were related to various aspects of inclusive institutional policy, culture, and practices. According to the analysis, it is possible to conclude that Croatian ECEC professionals are still faced with great challenges in the process of implementation of inclusive policies, culture, and practices. There are several baselines of this conclusion. The interviewed educational professionals are not familiar enough with the whole complexity and diversity of needs of children at risk of social exclusion, and the ECEC institutions do not have enough resources to provide all interventions that these children and their families need.

Keywords: children at risk of social exclusion, ECEC professionals, inclusive policies, culture and practices, interpretative phenomenological analysis

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Authors: Marinelle El-Khoury, Lina Bouhaya, Nivine Abbas, Hassan Sleiman

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The road network in the north of Lebanon is a prime example of the lack of pavement design and execution in Lebanon.  These roads show major distresses and hence, should be tested and evaluated. The aim of this research is to investigate and determine the deficiencies in road surface design in Lebanon, and to propose an environmentally friendly asphalt mix design. This paper consists of several parts: (i) evaluating pavement performance and structural behavior, (ii) identifying the distresses using visual examination followed by laboratory tests, (iii) deciding the optimal solution where rehabilitation or reconstruction is required and finally, (iv) identifying a sustainable method, which uses recycled material in the proposed mix. The asphalt formula contains Reclaimed Asphalt Pavement (RAP) in the base course layer and in the asphalt layer. Visual inspection of the roads in Tripoli shows that these roads face a high level of distress severity. Consequently, the pavement should be reconstructed rather than simply rehabilitated. Coring was done to determine the pavement layer thickness. The results were compared to the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) design methodology and showed that the existing asphalt thickness is lower than the required asphalt thickness. Prior to the pavement reconstruction, the road materials were tested according to the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) specification to identify whether the materials are suitable. Accordingly, the ASTM tests that were performed on the base course are Sieve analysis, Atterberg limits, modified proctor, Los Angeles, and California Bearing Ratio (CBR) tests. Results show a CBR value higher than 70%. Hence, these aggregates could be used as a base course layer. The asphalt layer was also tested and the results of the Marshall flow and stability tests meet the ASTM specifications. In the last section, an environmentally friendly mix was proposed. An optimal RAP percentage of 30%, which produced a well graded base course and asphalt mix, was determined through a series of trials.

Keywords: Asphalt mix, reclaimed asphalt pavement, California bearing ratio, sustainability.

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Authors: N. Hernández Huertas, F. Rojas Mora

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Sounding rockets are aerospace vehicles that were developed in the mid-20th century, and since then numerous investigations have been executed with the aim of innovate in this type of technology. However, the costs associated to the production of this type of technology are usually quite high, and therefore the challenge that exists today is to be able to reduce them. In this way, the main objective of this document is to present the design process of a Colombian aerospace mission capable to reach the thermosphere using low-cost “Candy” type solid fuel engines. This mission is the latest development of the Uniandes Aerospace Project (PUA for its Spanish acronym), which is an undergraduate and postgraduate research group at Universidad de los Andes (Bogotá, Colombia), dedicated to incurring in this type of technology. In this way, the investigations that have been carried out on Candy-type solid fuel, which is a compound of potassium nitrate and sorbitol, have allowed the production of engines powerful enough to reach space, and which represents a unique technological advance in Latin America and an important development in experimental rocketry. In this way, following the engineering iterative design methodology was possible to design a 2-stage sounding rocket with 1 solid fuel engine in each one, which was then simulated in RockSim V9.0 software and reached an apogee of approximately 150 km above sea level. Similarly, a speed equal to 5 Mach was obtained, which after performing a finite element analysis, it was shown that the rocket is strong enough to be able to withstand such speeds. Under these premises, it was demonstrated that it is possible to build a high-power aerospace mission at low cost, using Candy-type solid fuel engines. For this reason, the feasibility of carrying out similar missions clearly depends on the ability to replicate the engines in the best way, since as mentioned above, the design of the rocket is adequate to reach supersonic speeds and reach space. Consequently, with a team of at least 3 members, the mission can be obtained in less than 3 months. Therefore, when publishing this project, it is intended to be a reference for future research in this field and benefit the industry.

Keywords: Aerospace missions, candy type solid propellant engines, design of solid rockets, experimental rocketry, low costs missions.

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Authors: Jorge Rodriguez-Guerra, Carlos Calleja, Aron Pujana, Iker Elorza, Ana Maria Macarulla

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Society demands more reliable manufacturing processes capable of producing high quality products in shorter production cycles. New control algorithms have been studied to satisfy this paradigm, in which Fault-Tolerant Control (FTC) plays a significant role. It is suitable to detect, isolate and adapt a system when a harmful or faulty situation appears. In this paper, a general overview about FTC characteristics are exposed; highlighting the properties a system must ensure to be considered faultless. In addition, a research to identify which are the main FTC techniques and a classification based on their characteristics is presented in two main groups: Active Fault-Tolerant Controllers (AFTCs) and Passive Fault-Tolerant Controllers (PFTCs). AFTC encompasses the techniques capable of re-configuring the process control algorithm after the fault has been detected, while PFTC comprehends the algorithms robust enough to bypass the fault without further modifications. The mentioned re-configuration requires two stages, one focused on detection, isolation and identification of the fault source and the other one in charge of re-designing the control algorithm by two approaches: fault accommodation and control re-design. From the algorithms studied, one has been selected and applied to a case study based on an industrial hydraulic-press. The developed model has been embedded under a real-time validation platform, which allows testing the FTC algorithms and analyse how the system will respond when a fault arises in similar conditions as a machine will have on factory. One AFTC approach has been picked up as the methodology the system will follow in the fault recovery process. In a first instance, the fault will be detected, isolated and identified by means of a neural network. In a second instance, the control algorithm will be re-configured to overcome the fault and continue working without human interaction.

Keywords: Fault-tolerant control, electro-hydraulic actuator, fault detection and isolation, control re-design, real-time.

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Authors: H. Shayeghi, H. A. Shayanfar, G. Azimi

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The quality of short term load forecasting can improve the efficiency of planning and operation of electric utilities. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are employed for nonlinear short term load forecasting owing to their powerful nonlinear mapping capabilities. At present, there is no systematic methodology for optimal design and training of an artificial neural network. One has often to resort to the trial and error approach. This paper describes the process of developing three layer feed-forward large neural networks for short-term load forecasting and then presents a heuristic search algorithm for performing an important task of this process, i.e. optimal networks structure design. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to develop the optimum large neural network structure and connecting weights for one-day ahead electric load forecasting problem. PSO is a novel random optimization method based on swarm intelligence, which has more powerful ability of global optimization. Employing PSO algorithms on the design and training of ANNs allows the ANN architecture and parameters to be easily optimized. The proposed method is applied to STLF of the local utility. Data are clustered due to the differences in their characteristics. Special days are extracted from the normal training sets and handled separately. In this way, a solution is provided for all load types, including working days and weekends and special days. The experimental results show that the proposed method optimized by PSO can quicken the learning speed of the network and improve the forecasting precision compared with the conventional Back Propagation (BP) method. Moreover, it is not only simple to calculate, but also practical and effective. Also, it provides a greater degree of accuracy in many cases and gives lower percent errors all the time for STLF problem compared to BP method. Thus, it can be applied to automatically design an optimal load forecaster based on historical data.

Keywords: Large Neural Network, Short-Term Load Forecasting, Particle Swarm Optimization.

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Authors: Pauliasi Tony Fakahau

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This paper provides an overview of the impact of the revenue reform programme on vulnerable communities in the Kingdom of Tonga. Economic turmoil and mismanagement during the late 1990s forced the government to seek technical and financial assistance from the Asian Development Bank to undertake a comprehensive Economic and Public Sector Reform (EPSR) programme. The EPSR is a Western model recommended by donor agencies as the solution to Tonga’s economic challenges. The EPSR programme included public sector reform, private sector growth, and revenue generation. Tax reform was the main tool for revenue generation, which set out to strengthen tax compliance and administration as well as implement a value-added consumption tax. The EPSR is based on Western values and ideology but failed to recognise that Tongan cultural values are important to the local community. Two participant groups were interviewed. Participant group one consisted of 51 people representing vulnerable communities. Participant group two consisted of six people from the government and business sector who were from the elite of Tongan society. The Kakala Research Methodology provided the framework for the research, and the Talanoa Research Method was used to conduct semi-structured interviews in the homes of the first group and in the workplaces of the second group. The research found a heavy burden of the consumption tax on the purchasing power of participant group one (vulnerable participants), having an impact on nearly every financial transaction they made. Participant group one’s main financial priorities were kavenga fakalotu (obligations to the church), kavenga fakafāmili (obligations to the family) and kavenga fakafonua (obligations to cultural events for the village, nobility, and royalty). The findings identified inequalities of the revenue reform, especially from consumption tax, for vulnerable people and communities compared to the elite of society. The research concluded that government and donor agencies need ameliorating policies to reduce the burden of tax on vulnerable groups more susceptible to the impact of revenue reform.

Keywords: Tax reform, Tonga vulnerable community revenue, revenue reform, public sector reform.

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Authors: Dante Jose R. Amisola, Glenford M. Prospero

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'Driving What’s Next' is a strong campaign of the new administration of De La Salle Lipa in promoting social innovation in quality education. The new leadership directs social innovation in quality education in the institutional directions and initiatives to address real-world challenges with real-world solutions. This research under study aims to qualify the commitment of the institution to extend the Lasallian quality human and Christian education to all, as expressed in the Institution’s new mission-vision statement. The Classic Grounded Theory methodology is employed in the process of generating concepts in reference to the documents, a series of meetings, focus group discussions and other related activities that account for the conceptualization and formulation of the new mission-vision along with the new education innovation framework. Notably, Driving What’s Next is the emergent theory that encapsulates the commitment of giving quality human and Christian education to all. It directs the new leadership in driving social innovation in quality education initiatives. Correspondingly, Driving What’s Next is continually resolved through four interrelated strategies also termed as the institution's four strategic directions, namely: (1) driving social innovation in quality education, (2) embracing our shared humanity and championing social inclusion and justice initiatives, (3) creating sustainable futures and (4) engaging diverse stakeholders in our shared mission. Significantly, the four strategic directions capture and integrate the 17 UN sustainable development goals, making the innovative curriculum locally and globally relevant. To conclude, the main concern of the new administration and how it is continually resolved, provide meaningful and fun learning experiences and promote a new way of learning in the light of the 21^st century skills among the members of the academic community including stakeholders and extended communities at large, which are defined as: learning together and by association (collaboration), learning through engagement (communication), learning by design (creativity) and learning with social impact (critical thinking).

Keywords: De La Salle Lipa, Driving What’s Next, social innovation in quality education, DLSL mission - vision, strategic directions.

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Authors: S. Sieniutycz

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This paper unifies power optimization approaches in various energy converters, such as: thermal, solar, chemical, and electrochemical engines, in particular fuel cells. Thermodynamics leads to converter-s efficiency and limiting power. Efficiency equations serve to solve problems of upgrading and downgrading of resources. While optimization of steady systems applies the differential calculus and Lagrange multipliers, dynamic optimization involves variational calculus and dynamic programming. In reacting systems chemical affinity constitutes a prevailing component of an overall efficiency, thus the power is analyzed in terms of an active part of chemical affinity. The main novelty of the present paper in the energy yield context consists in showing that the generalized heat flux Q (involving the traditional heat flux q plus the product of temperature and the sum products of partial entropies and fluxes of species) plays in complex cases (solar, chemical and electrochemical) the same role as the traditional heat q in pure heat engines. The presented methodology is also applied to power limits in fuel cells as to systems which are electrochemical flow engines propelled by chemical reactions. The performance of fuel cells is determined by magnitudes and directions of participating streams and mechanism of electric current generation. Voltage lowering below the reversible voltage is a proper measure of cells imperfection. The voltage losses, called polarization, include the contributions of three main sources: activation, ohmic and concentration. Examples show power maxima in fuel cells and prove the relevance of the extension of the thermal machine theory to chemical and electrochemical systems. The main novelty of the present paper in the FC context consists in introducing an effective or reduced Gibbs free energy change between products p and reactants s which take into account the decrease of voltage and power caused by the incomplete conversion of the overall reaction.

Keywords: Power yield, entropy production, chemical engines, fuel cells, exergy.

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Authors: Fariba Tadayon, Elmira Hassanlou, Hasan Bagheri, Mostafa Jafarian

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Heavy metals are released into water, plants, soil, and food by natural and human activities. Lead has toxic roles in the human body and may cause serious problems even in low concentrations, since it may have several adverse effects on human. Therefore, determination of lead in different samples is an important procedure in the studies of environmental pollution. In this work, an ultrasonic assisted-ionic liquid based-liquid-liquid microextraction (UA-IL-DLLME) procedure for the determination of lead in zucchini, pomegranate, and lettuce has been established and developed by using flame atomic absorption spectrometer (FAAS). For UA-IL-DLLME procedure, 10 mL of the sample solution containing Pb2+ was adjusted to pH=5 in a glass test tube with a conical bottom; then, 120 μL of 1-Hexyl-3-methylimidazolium hexafluoro phosphate (CMIM)(PF6) was rapidly injected into the sample solution with a microsyringe. After that, the resulting cloudy mixture was treated by ultrasonic for 5 min, then the separation of two phases was obtained by centrifugation for 5 min at 3000 rpm and IL-phase diluted with 1 cc ethanol, and the analytes were determined by FAAS. The effect of different experimental parameters in the extraction step including: ionic liquid volume, sonication time and pH was studied and optimized simultaneously by using Response Surface Methodology (RSM) employing a central composite design (CCD). The optimal conditions were determined to be an ionic liquid volume of 120 μL, sonication time of 5 min, and pH=5. The linear ranges of the calibration curve for the determination by FAAS of lead were 0.1-4 ppm with R2=0.992. Under optimized conditions, the limit of detection (LOD) for lead was 0.062 μg.mL-1, the enrichment factor (EF) was 93, and the relative standard deviation (RSD) for lead was calculated as 2.29%. The levels of lead for pomegranate, zucchini, and lettuce were calculated as 2.88 μg.g-1, 1.54 μg.g-1, 2.18 μg.g-1, respectively. Therefore, this method has been successfully applied for the analysis of the content of lead in different food samples by FAAS.

Keywords: Dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction, Central composite design, Food samples, Flame atomic absorption spectrometry.

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Authors: Wojciech Górecki, Anna Sowiżdżał, Grzegorz Machowski, Tomasz Maćkowski, Bartosz Papiernik, Michał Stefaniuk

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The article shows results of the project which aims at evaluating possibilities of effective development and exploitation of natural gas from argillaceous series of the Autochthonous Miocene in the Carpathian Foredeep. To achieve the objective, the research team develop a world-trend based but unique methodology of processing and interpretation, adjusted to data, local variations and petroleum characteristics of the area. In order to determine the zones in which maximum volumes of hydrocarbons might have been generated and preserved as shale gas reservoirs, as well as to identify the most preferable well sites where largest gas accumulations are anticipated a number of task were accomplished. Evaluation of petrophysical properties and hydrocarbon saturation of the Miocene complex is based on laboratory measurements as well as interpretation of well-logs and archival data. The studies apply mercury porosimetry (MICP), micro CT and nuclear magnetic resonance imaging (using the Rock Core Analyzer). For prospective location (e.g. central part of Carpathian Foredeep – Brzesko-Wojnicz area) reprocessing and reinterpretation of detailed seismic survey data with the use of integrated geophysical investigations has been made. Construction of quantitative, structural and parametric models for selected areas of the Carpathian Foredeep is performed on the basis of integrated, detailed 3D computer models. Modeling are carried on with the Schlumberger’s Petrel software. Finally, prospective zones are spatially contoured in a form of regional 3D grid, which will be framework for generation modelling and comprehensive parametric mapping, allowing for spatial identification of the most prospective zones of unconventional gas accumulation in the Carpathian Foredeep. Preliminary results of research works indicate a potentially prospective area for occurrence of unconventional gas accumulations in the Polish part of Carpathian Foredeep.

Keywords: Autochthonous Miocene, Carpathian Foredeep, Poland, shale gas.

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Authors: Tajinder Pal Singh

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Teaching of mathematics to engineering students is an open ended problem in education. The main goal of mathematics learning for engineering students is the ability of applying a wide range of mathematical techniques and skills in their engineering classes and later in their professional work. Most of the undergraduate engineering students and faculties feels that no efforts and attempts are made to demonstrate the applicability of various topics of mathematics that are taught thus making mathematics unavoidable for some engineering faculty and their students. The lack of understanding of concepts in engineering mathematics may hinder the understanding of other concepts or even subjects. However, for most undergraduate engineering students, mathematics is one of the most difficult courses in their field of study. Most of the engineering students never understood mathematics or they never liked it because it was too abstract for them and they could never relate to it. A right balance of application and concept based teaching can only fulfill the objectives of teaching mathematics to engineering students. It will surely improve and enhance their problem solving and creative thinking skills. In this paper, some practical (informal) ways of making mathematics-teaching application based for the engineering students is discussed. An attempt is made to understand the present state of teaching mathematics in engineering colleges. The weaknesses and strengths of the current teaching approach are elaborated. Some of the causes of unpopularity of mathematics subject are analyzed and a few pragmatic suggestions have been made. Faculty in mathematics courses should spend more time discussing the applications as well as the conceptual underpinnings rather than focus solely on strategies and techniques to solve problems. They should also introduce more ‘word’ problems as these problems are commonly encountered in engineering courses. Overspecialization in engineering education should not occur at the expense of (or by diluting) mathematics and basic sciences. The role of engineering education is to provide the fundamental (basic) knowledge and to teach the students simple methodology of self-learning and self-development. All these issues would be better addressed if mathematics and engineering faculty join hands together to plan and design the learning experiences for the students who take their classes. When faculties stop competing against each other and start competing against the situation, they will perform better. Without creating any administrative hassles these suggestions can be used by any young inexperienced faculty of mathematics to inspire engineering students to learn engineering mathematics effectively.

Keywords: Application based learning, conceptual learning, engineering mathematics, word problem.

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Authors: J. Bartnicka, J. A. Piedrabuena, R. Portilla, L. Moyano - Cuevas, J. B. Pagador, P. Augat, J. Tokarczyk, F. M. Sánchez Margallo

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Orthopaedic surgeries are characterized by a high degree of complexity. This is reflected by four main groups of resources: 1) surgical team which is consisted of people with different competencies, educational backgrounds and positions; 2) information and knowledge about medical and technical aspects of surgery; 3) medical equipment including surgical tools and materials; 4) space infrastructure which is important from an operating room layout point of view. These all components must be integrated and build a homogeneous organism for achieving an efficient and ergonomically correct surgical workflow. Taking this as a background, there was formulated a concept of international project, called “Online Vocational Training course on ergonomics for orthopaedic Minimally Invasive” (Train4OrthoMIS), which aim is to develop an e-learning tool available in 4 languages (English, Spanish, Polish and German). In the article, there is presented the first project research outcomes focused on three aspects: 1) ergonomic needs of surgeons who work in hospitals around different European countries, 2) the concept of structure of e-learning course, 3) the definition of tools and methods for knowledge assessment adjusted to users’ expectation.  The methodology was based on the expert panels and two types of surveys: 1) on training needs, 2) on evaluation and self-assessment preferences. The major findings of the study allowed describing the subjects of four training modules and learning sessions. According to peoples’ opinion there were defined most expected test methods which are single choice test and right after quizzes: “True or False” and “Link elements” The first project outcomes confirmed the necessity of creating a universal training tool for orthopaedic surgeons regardless of the country in which they work. Because of limited time that surgeons have, the e-learning course should be strictly adjusted to their expectation in order to be useful.

Keywords: International e-learning, ergonomics, orthopaedic surgery, Train4OrthoMIS.

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Authors: António Marques, Graça Guedes

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The Portuguese footwear industry had in the last five years a remarkable performance in the exportation values, the trade balance and others economic indicators. After a long period of difficulties and with a strong reduction of companies and employees since 1994 until 2009, the Portuguese footwear industry changed the strategy and is now a success case between the international players of footwear. Only the Italian industry sells footwear with a higher value than the Portuguese and the distance between them is decreasing year by year. This paper analyses how the Portuguese footwear companies innovate and make innovation, according the classification proposed by the Oslo Manual. Also, analyses the strategy follow in the innovation process and shows the linkage between the type of innovation and the strategy of innovation. The research methodology was qualitative and the strategy for data collection was the case study. The qualitative data will be analyzed with the MAXQDA software. The economic results of the footwear companies studied shows differences between all of them and these differences are related with the innovation strategy adopted. The companies focused in product and marketing innovation, oriented to their target market, have higher ratios “turnover per worker” than the companies focused in process innovation. However, all the footwear companies in this “low-tech” industry create value and contribute to a positive foreign trade of 1.310 million euros in 2013. The growth strategies implemented has the participation of the sectorial organizations in several innovative projects. And it’s obvious that cooperation between all of them is a critical element to the performance achieved by the companies and the innovation observed. The Portuguese footwear sector has in the last years an excellent performance (economic results, exportation values, trade balance, brands and international image) and his performance is strongly related with the strategy in innovation followed, the type of innovation and the networks in the cluster. A simplified model, called “Ace of Diamonds”, is proposed by the authors and explains the way how this performance was reached by the seven companies that participate in the study (two of them are the leaders in the setor), and if this model can be used in others traditional and “low-tech” industries.

Keywords: Footwear industry, innovation strategy, low-tech industry, Oslo Manual.

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Authors: Barbara Covarrubias Venegas, Sabine Groblschegg, Bernhard Klaus, Julia Domnanovich

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Research Objectives: The roles and activities of Human Resource Management (HRM) have changed a lot in the past years. Driven by a changing environment and therefore new business requirements, the scope of human resource (HR) activities has widened. The extent to which these activities should focus on strategic issues to support the long term success of a company has been discussed in science for many years. As many economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) experienced a phase of transition after the socialist era and are now recovering from the 2008 global crisis it is needed to examine the current state of HR positioning. Furthermore a trend in HR work developing from rather administrative units to being strategic partners of management can be noticed. This leads to the question of better understanding the underlying competencies which are necessary to support organisations. This topic was addressed by the international study “HR Competencies in international comparison”. The quantitative survey was conducted by the Institute for Human Resources & Organisation of FHWien University of Applied Science of WKW (A) in cooperation with partner universities in the countries Bosnia- Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia and Slovenia. Methodology: Using the questionnaire developed by Dave Ulrich we tested whether the HR Competency model can be used for Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia and Slovenia. After performing confirmatory and exploratory factor analysis for the whole data set containing all five countries we could clearly distinguish between four competencies. In a further step our analysis focused on median and average comparisons between the HR competency dimensions. Conclusion: Our literature review, in alignment with other studies, shows a relatively rapid pace of development of HR Roles and HR Competencies in BCSS in the past decades. Comparing data from BCSS and Austria we still can notice that regards strategic orientation there is a lack in BCSS countries, thus competencies are not as developed as in Austria. This leads us to the tentative conclusion that HR has undergone a rapid change but is still in a State of Transition from being a rather administrative unit to performing the role of a strategic partner.

Keywords: Comparative study, HR competencies, HRM, HR Roles.

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Authors: Keith D. Nare, Mohau J. Phiri, James Carson, Chris D. Woolard, Shanganyane P. Hlangothi

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In an energy-intensive world, minimizing energy consumption is paramount to cost saving and reducing the carbon footprint. Improving mixture procedures utilizing warm mix additive Fischer-Tropsch (FT) wax in ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) and modified bitumen highlights a greener and sustainable approach to modified bitumen. In this study, the impact of FT wax on optimized EVA/waste crumb rubber modified bitumen is assayed with a maximum loading of 2.5%. The rationale of the FT wax loading is to maintain the original maximum loading of EVA in the optimized mixture. The phase change abilities of FT wax enable EVA co-crystallization with the support of the elastomeric backbone of crumb rubber. Less than 1% loading of FT wax worked in the EVA/crumb rubber modified bitumen energy-sustainability nexus. Response surface methodology approach to the mixture design is implemented amongst the different loadings of FT wax, EVA for a consistent amount of crumb rubber and bitumen. Rheological parameters (complex shear modulus, phase angle and rutting parameter) were the factors used as performance indicators of the different optimized mixtures. The low temperature chemistry of the optimized mixtures is analyzed using elementary beam theory and the elastic-viscoelastic correspondence principle. Master curves and black space diagrams are developed and used to predict age-induced cracking of the different long term aged mixtures. Modified binder rheology reveals that the strain response is not linear and that there is substantial re-arrangement of polymer chains as stress is increased, this is based on the age state of the mixture and the FT wax and EVA loadings. Dominance of individual effects is evident over effects of synergy in co-interaction of EVA and FT wax. All-inclusive FT wax and EVA formulations were best optimized in mixture 4 with mixture 7 reflecting increase in ease of workability. Findings show that interaction chemistry of bitumen, crumb rubber EVA, and FT wax is first and second order in all cases involving individual contributions and co-interaction amongst the components of the mixture.

Keywords: Bitumen, crumb rubber, ethylene vinyl acetate, FT wax.

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: Actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility.

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Authors: K. Appasamy, P. Paul

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Mauritius, a developing small-island-state, is facing a recession which is having a considerable economic impact particularly on its construction sector. Further, the presence of foreign entities, both as companies and workers, within this sector is creating a very competitive environment for local firms. This study investigates the key drivers that allow foreign firms to participate in this sector, in particular looking at the international and local tender processes, and the capacity of local industry to participate. This study also looks at how the current set up may hinder the latter’s involvement. The methodology used included qualitative semi-structured interviews conducted with established foreign companies, local companies, and public bodies. Study findings indicate: there is an adequate availability of professional skills and expertise within the Mauritian construction industry but a lack of skilled labour especially at the operative level; projects awarded to foreign firms are either due to their uniqueness and hence lack of local knowledge, or due to foreign firms having lower tender bids; tendering systems and processes are weak, including monitoring and enforcement, which encourages corruption and favouritism; a high lev el of ignorance of this sector’s characteristics and opportunities exists amongst the local population; local entities are very profit oriented and have short term strategies that discourage long term investment in workforce training and development; but most importantly, stakeholders do not grasp the importance of encouraging youngsters to join this sector, they have no long term vision, and there is a lack of mutual involvement and collaboration between them. Although local industry is highly competent, qualified and experienced, the tendering and procurement systems in Mauritius are not conducive enough to allow for effective strategic planning and an equitable allocation of projects during an economic downturn so that the broadest spread of stakeholders’ benefit. It is of utmost importance that all sector and government entities collaborate to formulate strategies and reforms on tender processes and capacity building to ensure fairness and continuous growth of this sector in Mauritius.

Keywords: Construction industry, tender process, international firms, local capacity, Mauritius.

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Authors: P. Bogas

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As a scientific contribution to this discussion, a pedagogical intervention of a quasi-experimental nature was developed, with a mixed methodology, evaluating the intervention within a single curricular unit of Marketing, using cases based on real challenges of brands, business simulation and customer projects. Primary and secondary experiences were incorporated in the intervention: the primary experiences are the experiential activities themselves; the secondary experiences resulted from the primary experience, such as reflection and discussion in work teams. A diversified learning relationship was encouraged through the various connections between the different members of the learning community. The present study concludes that in the same context, the students' response can be described as: students who reinforce the initial deep approach, students who maintain the initial deep approach level and others who change from an emphasis on the deep approach to one closer to superficial. This typology did not always confirm studies reported in the literature, namely, whether the initial level of deep processing would influence the superficial and the opposite. The result of this investigation points to the inclusion of pedagogical and didactic activities that integrate different motivations and initial strategies, leading to a possible adoption of deep approaches to learning, since it revealed statistically significant differences in the difference in the scores of the deep/superficial approach and the experiential level. In the case of real challenges, the categories of “attribution of meaning and meaning of studied” and the possibility of “contact with an aspirational context” for their future professional stand out. In this category, the dimensions of autonomy that will be required of them were also revealed when comparing the classroom context of real cases and the future professional context and the impact they may have on the world. Regarding to the simulated practice, two categories of response stand out: on the one hand, the motivation associated with the possibility of measuring the results of the decisions taken, an awareness of oneself and, on the other hand, the additional effort that this practice required for some of the students.

Keywords: Experiential learning, higher education, marketing, mixed methods, reflective thinking.

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Authors: Ali Essam El Shazly

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The Haussmannization plan of Cairo in 1867 formed a regular network of roundabout spaces, though deteriorated at present. The method of identifying the spatial structure of roundabout Cairo for conservation matches the voronoi diagram with the space syntax through their geometrical property of spatial convexity. In this initiative, the primary convex hull of first-order voronoi adopts the integral and control measurements of space syntax on Cairo’s roundabout generators. The functional essence of royal palaces optimizes the roundabout structure in terms of spatial measurements and the symbolic voronoi projection of 'Tahrir Roundabout' over the Giza Nile and Pyramids. Some roundabouts of major public and commercial landmarks surround the pole of 'Ezbekia Garden' with a higher control than integral measurements, which filter the new spatial structure from the adjacent traditional town. Nevertheless, the least integral and control measures correspond to the voronoi contents of pollutant workshops and the plateau of old Cairo Citadel with the visual compensation of new royal landmarks on top. Meanwhile, the extended suburbs of infinite voronoi polygons arrange high control generators of chateaux housing in 'garden city' environs. The point pattern of roundabouts determines the geometrical characteristics of voronoi polygons. The measured lengths of voronoi edges alternate between the zoned short range at the new poles of Cairo and the distributed structure of longer range. Nevertheless, the shortest range of generator-vertex geometry concentrates at 'Ezbekia Garden' where the crossways of vast Cairo intersect, which maximizes the variety of choice at different spatial resolutions. However, the symbolic 'Hippodrome' which is the largest public landmark forms exclusive geometrical measurements, while structuring a most integrative roundabout to parallel the royal syntax. Overview of the symbolic convex hull of voronoi with space syntax interconnects Parisian Cairo with the spatial chronology of scattered monuments to conceive one universal Cairo structure. Accordingly, the approached methodology of 'voronoi-syntax' prospects the future conservation of roundabout Cairo at the inferred city-level concept.

Keywords: Roundabout Cairo, first-order Voronoi, space syntax, spatial structure.

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Authors: Panagiotis Platanitis

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Purpose: This research paper seeks to review the empirical studies in the field of expatriate adjustment in East Asia in order to produce a thematic understanding of the current adjustment challenges, thus enabling practitioners to enrich their knowledge. Background: Learning to live, work, and function in a country and culture vastly different from that of one’s upbringing can pose some unique challenges in terms of adaptation and adjustment. This has led to a growing body of research about the adjustment of expatriate workers. Adjustment itself has been posited as a three-dimensional construct; work adjustment, interaction adjustment and general or cultural adjustment. Methodology: This qualitative systematic review has been conducted on all identified peer-reviewed empirical studies related to expatriate adjustment in East Asia. Five electronic databases (PsychInfo, Emerald, Scopus, EBSCO and JSTOR) were searched to December 2015. Out of 625 identified records, thorough evaluation for eligibility resulted in 15 relevant studies being subjected to data analysis. The quality of the identified research was assessed according to the Standard Quality Assessment Criteria for Evaluating Primary Research Papers from a Variety of Fields. The data were analysed by means of thematic synthesis for systematic reviews of qualitative research. Findings: Data analysis revealed five key themes. The themes developed were: (1) personality traits (2) types of adjustment, (3) language, (4) culture and (5) coping strategies. Types of adjustment included subthemes such as: Interaction, general, work, psychological, sociocultural and cross-cultural adjustment. Conclusion: The present review supported previous literature on the different themes of adjustment and it takes the focus from work and general adjustment to the psychological challenges and it introduces the psychological adjustment. It also gives a different perspective about the use of cross-cultural training and the coping strategies expatriates use when they are abroad. This review helps counselling psychologists to understand the importance of a multicultural approach when working with expatriates and also to be aware of what expatriates might face when working and living in East Asia.

Keywords: Expatriates, adjustment, East Asia, counselling psychology.

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Authors: E. L. Suarez, D. E. Meeroff, Y. Yong

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Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: Community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding.

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Authors: Lily Ingsrisawang, Supawadee Ingsriswang, Saisuda Somchit, Prasert Aungsuratana, Warawut Khantiyanan

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This paper presents the methodology from machine learning approaches for short-term rain forecasting system. Decision Tree, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were applied to develop classification and prediction models for rainfall forecasts. The goals of this presentation are to demonstrate (1) how feature selection can be used to identify the relationships between rainfall occurrences and other weather conditions and (2) what models can be developed and deployed for predicting the accurate rainfall estimates to support the decisions to launch the cloud seeding operations in the northeastern part of Thailand. Datasets collected during 2004-2006 from the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Hua Hin, Prachuap Khiri khan, the Chalermprakiat Royal Rain Making Research Center at Pimai, Nakhon Ratchasima and Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). A total of 179 records with 57 features was merged and matched by unique date. There are three main parts in this work. Firstly, a decision tree induction algorithm (C4.5) was used to classify the rain status into either rain or no-rain. The overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 94.41% with the five-fold cross validation. The C4.5 algorithm was also used to classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain (0-0.1 mm.), few-rain (0.1- 10 mm.), and moderate-rain (>10 mm.) and the overall accuracy of classification tree achieves 62.57%. Secondly, an ANN was applied to predict the rainfall amount and the root mean square error (RMSE) were used to measure the training and testing errors of the ANN. It is found that the ANN yields a lower RMSE at 0.171 for daily rainfall estimates, when compared to next-day and next-2-day estimation. Thirdly, the ANN and SVM techniques were also used to classify the rain amount into three classes as no-rain, few-rain, and moderate-rain as above. The results achieved in 68.15% and 69.10% of overall accuracy of same-day prediction for the ANN and SVM models, respectively. The obtained results illustrated the comparison of the predictive power of different methods for rainfall estimation.

Keywords: Machine learning, decision tree, artificial neural network, support vector machine, root mean square error.

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