Search results for: Automated Fault Prediction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1703

Search results for: Automated Fault Prediction

443 Prediction-Based Midterm Operation Planning for Energy Management of Exhibition Hall

Authors: Doseong Eom, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

Abstract:

Large exhibition halls require a lot of energy to maintain comfortable atmosphere for the visitors viewing inside. One way of reducing the energy cost is to have thermal energy storage systems installed so that the thermal energy can be stored in the middle of night when the energy price is low and then used later when the price is high. To minimize the overall energy cost, however, we should be able to decide how much energy to save during which time period exactly. If we can foresee future energy load and the corresponding cost, we will be able to make such decisions reasonably. In this paper, we use machine learning technique to obtain models for predicting weather conditions and the number of visitors on hourly basis for the next day. Based on the energy load thus predicted, we build a cost-optimal daily operation plan for the thermal energy storage systems and cooling and heating facilities through simulation-based optimization.

Keywords: Building energy management, machine learning, simulation-based optimization, operation planning.

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442 A New Analytical Approach to Reconstruct Residual Stresses Due to Turning Process

Authors: G.H. Farrahi, S.A. Faghidian, D.J. Smith

Abstract:

A thin layer on the component surface can be found with high tensile residual stresses, due to turning operations, which can dangerously affect the fatigue performance of the component. In this paper an analytical approach is presented to reconstruct the residual stress field from a limited incomplete set of measurements. Airy stress function is used as the primary unknown to directly solve the equilibrium equations and satisfying the boundary conditions. In this new method there exists the flexibility to impose the physical conditions that govern the behavior of residual stress to achieve a meaningful complete stress field. The analysis is also coupled to a least squares approximation and a regularization method to provide stability of the inverse problem. The power of this new method is then demonstrated by analyzing some experimental measurements and achieving a good agreement between the model prediction and the results obtained from residual stress measurement.

Keywords: Residual stress, Limited measurements, Inverse problems, Turning process.

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441 An Automated Approach to the Nozzle Configuration of Polycrystalline Diamond Compact Drill Bits for Effective Cuttings Removal

Authors: R. Suresh, Pavan Kumar Nimmagadda, Ming Zo Tan, Shane Hart, Sharp Ugwuocha

Abstract:

Polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) drill bits are extensively used in the oil and gas industry as well as the mining industry. Industry engineers continually improve upon PDC drill bit designs and hydraulic conditions. Optimized injection nozzles play a key role in improving the drilling performance and efficiency of these ever changing PDC drill bits. In the first part of this study, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling is performed to investigate the hydrodynamic characteristics of drilling fluid flow around the PDC drill bit. An Open-source CFD software – OpenFOAM simulates the flow around the drill bit, based on the field input data. A specifically developed console application integrates the entire CFD process including, domain extraction, meshing, and solving governing equations and post-processing. The results from the OpenFOAM solver are then compared with that of the ANSYS Fluent software. The data from both software programs agree. The second part of the paper describes the parametric study of the PDC drill bit nozzle to determine the effect of parameters such as number of nozzles, nozzle velocity, nozzle radial position and orientations on the flow field characteristics and bit washing patterns. After analyzing a series of nozzle configurations, the best configuration is identified and recommendations are made for modifying the PDC bit design.

Keywords: ANSYS Fluent, computational fluid dynamics, nozzle configuration, OpenFOAM, PDC dill bit.

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440 Finite Element Modeling to Predict the Effect of Nose Radius on the Equivalent Strain (PEEQ) for Titanium Alloy (Ti-6Al-4V)

Authors: Moaz H. Ali, M. N. M. Ansari, Pang Jing Shen

Abstract:

In present work, prediction the effect of nose radius, rz (mm) on the equivalent strain (PEEQ) and surface finish during the machining of titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V) through orthogonal cutting process. The results were performed at several of the nose radiuses, rz (mm) while the cutting speed, vc (m/min), feed rate, f (mm/tooth) and depth of cut, d (mm) were remained constant. The equivalent plastic strain (PEEQ) was estimated by using finite element modeling (FEM) and applied through ABAQUS/EXPLICIT software. The simulation results led to conclude that the equivalent plastic strain (PEEQ) was increased and surface roughness (Ra) decreased when increasing nose radius, rz (mm) during the machining of titanium alloy (Ti–6Al–4V) in dry cutting conditions.

Keywords: Finite element modeling (FEM), nose radius, plastic strain (PEEQ), titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V).

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439 Application of Artificial Neural Network for the Prediction of Pressure Distribution of a Plunging Airfoil

Authors: F. Rasi Maezabadi, M. Masdari, M. R. Soltani

Abstract:

Series of experimental tests were conducted on a section of a 660 kW wind turbine blade to measure the pressure distribution of this model oscillating in plunging motion. In order to minimize the amount of data required to predict aerodynamic loads of the airfoil, a General Regression Neural Network, GRNN, was trained using the measured experimental data. The network once proved to be accurate enough, was used to predict the flow behavior of the airfoil for the desired conditions. Results showed that with using a few of the acquired data, the trained neural network was able to predict accurate results with minimal errors when compared with the corresponding measured values. Therefore with employing this trained network the aerodynamic coefficients of the plunging airfoil, are predicted accurately at different oscillation frequencies, amplitudes, and angles of attack; hence reducing the cost of tests while achieving acceptable accuracy.

Keywords: Airfoil, experimental, GRNN, Neural Network, Plunging.

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438 Finite Element Modeling of Rotating Mixing of Toothpaste

Authors: Inamullah Bhatti, Ahsanullah Baloch, Khadija Qureshi

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to examine the shear thinning behaviour of mixing flow of non-Newtonian fluid like toothpaste in the dissolution container with rotating stirrer. The problem under investigation is related to the chemical industry. Mixing of fluid is performed in a cylindrical container with rotating stirrer, where stirrer is eccentrically placed on the lid of the container. For the simulation purpose the associated motion of the fluid is considered as revolving of the container, with stick stirrer. For numerical prediction, a time-stepping finite element algorithm in a cylindrical polar coordinate system is adopted based on semi-implicit Taylor-Galerkin/pressure-correction scheme. Numerical solutions are obtained for non-Newtonian fluids employing power law model. Variations with power law index have been analysed, with respect to the flow structure and pressure drop.

Keywords: finite element simulation, mixing fluid, rheology, rotating flow, toothpaste

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437 Integration Methods and Processes of Product Design and Flexible Production for Direct Production within the iCIM 3000 System

Authors: Roman Ružarovský, Radovan Holubek, Daynier Rolando Delgado Sobrino

Abstract:

Currently is characterized production engineering together with the integration of industrial automation and robotics such very quick view of to manufacture the products. The production range is continuously changing, expanding and producers have to be flexible in this regard. It means that need to offer production possibilities, which can respond to the quick change. Engineering product development is focused on supporting CAD software, such systems are mainly used for product design. That manufacturers are competitive, it should be kept procured machines made available capable of responding to output flexibility. In response to that problem is the development of flexible manufacturing systems, consisting of various automated systems. The integration of flexible manufacturing systems and subunits together with product design and of engineering is a possible solution for this issue. Integration is possible through the implementation of CIM systems. Such a solution and finding a hyphen between CAD and procurement system ICIM 3000 from Festo Co. is engaged in the research project and this contribution. This can be designed the products in CAD systems and watch the manufacturing process from order to shipping by the development of methods and processes of integration, This can be modeled in CAD systems products and watch the manufacturing process from order to shipping to develop methods and processes of integration, which will improve support for product design parameters by monitoring of the production process, by creating of programs for production using the CAD and therefore accelerates the a total of process from design to implementation.

Keywords: CAD- Computer Aided Design, CAM- Computer Aided Manufacturing, CIM- Computer integrated manufacturing, iCIM 3000, integration, direct production from CAD.

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436 The Effect of Material Properties and Volumetric Changes in Phase Transformation to the Final Residual Stress of Welding Process

Authors: Djarot B. Darmadi

Abstract:

The wider growing Finite Element Method (FEM) application is caused by its benefits of cost saving and environment friendly. Also, by using FEM a deep understanding of certain phenomenon can be achieved. This paper observed the role of material properties and volumetric change when Solid State Phase Transformation (SSPT) takes place in residual stress formation due to a welding process of ferritic steels through coupled Thermo- Metallurgy-Mechanical (TMM) analysis. The correctness of FEM residual stress prediction was validated by experiment. From parametric study of the FEM model, it can be concluded that the material properties change tend to over-predicts residual stress in the weld center whilst volumetric change tend to underestimates it. The best final result is the compromise of both by incorporates them in the model which has a better result compared to a model without SSPT.

Keywords: Residual stress, ferritic steels, SSPT, coupled-TMM.

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435 A Neural Network Approach in Predicting the Blood Glucose Level for Diabetic Patients

Authors: Zarita Zainuddin, Ong Pauline, C. Ardil

Abstract:

Diabetes Mellitus is a chronic metabolic disorder, where the improper management of the blood glucose level in the diabetic patients will lead to the risk of heart attack, kidney disease and renal failure. This paper attempts to enhance the diagnostic accuracy of the advancing blood glucose levels of the diabetic patients, by combining principal component analysis and wavelet neural network. The proposed system makes separate blood glucose prediction in the morning, afternoon, evening and night intervals, using dataset from one patient covering a period of 77 days. Comparisons of the diagnostic accuracy with other neural network models, which use the same dataset are made. The comparison results showed overall improved accuracy, which indicates the effectiveness of this proposed system.

Keywords: Diabetes Mellitus, principal component analysis, time-series, wavelet neural network.

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434 Prediction of Phenolic Compound Migration Process through Soil Media using Artificial Neural Network Approach

Authors: Supriya Pal, Kalyan Adhikari, Somnath Mukherjee, Sudipta Ghosh

Abstract:

This study presents the application of artificial neural network for modeling the phenolic compound migration through vertical soil column. A three layered feed forward neural network with back propagation training algorithm was developed using forty eight experimental data sets obtained from laboratory fixed bed vertical column tests. The input parameters used in the model were the influent concentration of phenol(mg/L) on the top end of the soil column, depth of the soil column (cm), elapsed time after phenol injection (hr), percentage of clay (%), percentage of silt (%) in soils. The output of the ANN was the effluent phenol concentration (mg/L) from the bottom end of the soil columns. The ANN predicted results were compared with the experimental results of the laboratory tests and the accuracy of the ANN model was evaluated.

Keywords: Modeling, Neural Networks, Phenol, Soil media

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433 Application of Turbulence Modeling in Computational Fluid Dynamics for Airfoil Simulations

Authors: Mohammed Bilal

Abstract:

The precise prediction of aerodynamic behavior is necessary for the design and optimization of airfoils for a variety of applications. Turbulence, a phenomenon of complex and irregular flow, significantly affects the aerodynamic properties of airfoils. Therefore, turbulence modeling is essential for accurately predicting the behavior of airfoils in simulations. This study investigates five commonly employed turbulence models: Spalart-Allmaras (SA) model, k-epsilon model, k-omega model, Reynolds Stress Model (RSM), and Large Eddy Simulation (LES) model. The paper includes a comparison of the models' precision, computational expense, and applicability to various flow conditions. The strengths and weaknesses of each model are highlighted, allowing researchers and engineers to make informed decisions regarding simulations of specific airfoils. Unquestionably, the continuous development of turbulence modeling will contribute to further improvements in airfoil design and optimization, which will be advantageous to numerous industries.

Keywords: Computational fluid dynamics, airfoil, turbulence, aircraft.

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432 Automated Textile Defect Recognition System Using Computer Vision and Artificial Neural Networks

Authors: Atiqul Islam, Shamim Akhter, Tumnun E. Mursalin

Abstract:

Least Development Countries (LDC) like Bangladesh, whose 25% revenue earning is achieved from Textile export, requires producing less defective textile for minimizing production cost and time. Inspection processes done on these industries are mostly manual and time consuming. To reduce error on identifying fabric defects requires more automotive and accurate inspection process. Considering this lacking, this research implements a Textile Defect Recognizer which uses computer vision methodology with the combination of multi-layer neural networks to identify four classifications of textile defects. The recognizer, suitable for LDC countries, identifies the fabric defects within economical cost and produces less error prone inspection system in real time. In order to generate input set for the neural network, primarily the recognizer captures digital fabric images by image acquisition device and converts the RGB images into binary images by restoration process and local threshold techniques. Later, the output of the processed image, the area of the faulty portion, the number of objects of the image and the sharp factor of the image, are feed backed as an input layer to the neural network which uses back propagation algorithm to compute the weighted factors and generates the desired classifications of defects as an output.

Keywords: Computer vision, image acquisition device, machine vision, multi-layer neural networks.

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431 The Origin, Diffusion and a Comparison of Ordinary Differential Equations Numerical Solutions Used by SIR Model in Order to Predict SARS-CoV-2 in Nordic Countries

Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

Abstract:

SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: Forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, SIR model.

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430 Tools for Analysis and Optimization of Standalone Green Microgrids

Authors: William Anderson, Kyle Kobold, Oleg Yakimenko

Abstract:

Green microgrids using mostly renewable energy (RE) for generation, are complex systems with inherent nonlinear dynamics. Among a variety of different optimization tools there are only a few ones that adequately consider this complexity. This paper evaluates applicability of two somewhat similar optimization tools tailored for standalone RE microgrids and also assesses a machine learning tool for performance prediction that can enhance the reliability of any chosen optimization tool. It shows that one of these microgrid optimization tools has certain advantages over another and presents a detailed routine of preparing input data to simulate RE microgrid behavior. The paper also shows how neural-network-based predictive modeling can be used to validate and forecast solar power generation based on weather time series data, which improves the overall quality of standalone RE microgrid analysis.

Keywords: Microgrid, renewable energy, complex systems, optimization, predictive modeling, neural networks.

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429 Neuro-Fuzzy Network Based On Extended Kalman Filtering for Financial Time Series

Authors: Chokri Slim

Abstract:

The neural network's performance can be measured by efficiency and accuracy. The major disadvantages of neural network approach are that the generalization capability of neural networks is often significantly low, and it may take a very long time to tune the weights in the net to generate an accurate model for a highly complex and nonlinear systems. This paper presents a novel Neuro-fuzzy architecture based on Extended Kalman filter. To test the performance and applicability of the proposed neuro-fuzzy model, simulation study of nonlinear complex dynamic system is carried out. The proposed method can be applied to an on-line incremental adaptive learning for the prediction of financial time series. A benchmark case studie is used to demonstrate that the proposed model is a superior neuro-fuzzy modeling technique.

Keywords: Neuro-fuzzy, Extended Kalman filter, nonlinear systems, financial time series.

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428 Numerical and Infrared Mapping of Temperature in Heat Affected Zone during Plasma Arc Cutting of Mild Steel

Authors: Dalvir Singh, Somnath Chattopadhyaya

Abstract:

During welding or flame cutting of metals, the prediction of heat affected zone (HAZ) is critical. There is need to develop a simple mathematical model to calculate the temperature variation in HAZ and derivative analysis can be used for this purpose. This study presents analytical solution for heat transfer through conduction in mild steel plate. The homogeneous and nonhomogeneous boundary conditions are single variables. The full field analytical solutions of temperature measurement, subjected to local heating source, are derived first by method of separation of variables followed with the experimental visualization using infrared imaging. Based on the present work, it is suggested that appropriate heat input characteristics controls the temperature distribution in and around HAZ.

Keywords: Conduction Heat Transfer, Heat Affected Zone (HAZ), Infra-Red Imaging, Numerical Method, Orthogonal Function, Plasma Arc Cutting, Separation of Variables, Temperature Measurement.

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427 Determining Earthquake Performances of Existing Reinforced Concrete Buildings by Using ANN

Authors: Musa H. Arslan, Murat Ceylan, Tayfun Koyuncu

Abstract:

In this study, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) analytical method has been developed for analyzing earthquake performances of the Reinforced Concrete (RC) buildings. 66 RC buildings with four to ten storeys were subjected to performance analysis according to the parameters which are the existing material, loading and geometrical characteristics of the buildings. The selected parameters have been thought to be effective on the performance of RC buildings. In the performance analyses stage of the study, level of performance possible to be shown by these buildings in case of an earthquake was determined on the basis of the 4-grade performance levels specified in Turkish Earthquake Code-2007 (TEC-2007). After obtaining the 4-grade performance level, selected 23 parameters of each building have been matched with the performance level. In this stage, ANN-based fast evaluation algorithm mentioned above made an economic and rapid evaluation of four to ten storey RC buildings. According to the study, the prediction accuracy of ANN has been found about 74%.

Keywords: Artificial neural network, earthquake, performance, reinforced concrete.

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426 Performance Evaluation and Modeling of a Conical Plunging Jet Aerator

Authors: Surinder Deswal, D. V. S. Verma

Abstract:

Aeration by a plunging water jet is an energetically attractive way to effect oxygen-transfer than conventional oxygenation systems. In the present study, a new type of conical shaped plunging aeration device is fabricated to generate hollow inclined ined plunging jets (jet plunge angle of π/3 ) to investigate its oxygen transfer capacity. The results suggest that the volumetric oxygen-transfer coefficient and oxygen-transfer efficiency of the conical plunging jet aerator are competitive with other types of aeration systems. Relationships of volumetric oxygen-transfer coefficient with jet power per unit volume and jet parameters are also proposed. The suggested relationships predict the volumetric oxygentransfer coefficient within a scatter of ± 15% . Further, the application of Support Vector Machines on the experimental data revealed its utility in the prediction of volumetric oxygen-transfer coefficient and development of conical plunging jet aerators.

Keywords: Conical plunging jet, oxygen-transfer efficiency, support vector machines, volumetric oxygen-transfer coefficient.

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425 Settlement Prediction for Tehran Subway Line-3 via FLAC3D and ANFIS

Authors: S. A. Naeini, A. Khalili

Abstract:

Nowadays, tunnels with different applications are developed, and most of them are related to subway tunnels. The excavation of shallow tunnels that pass under municipal utilities is very important, and the surface settlement control is an important factor in the design. The study sought to analyze the settlement and also to find an appropriate model in order to predict the behavior of the tunnel in Tehran subway line-3. The displacement in these sections is also determined by using numerical analyses and numerical modeling. In addition, the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method is utilized by Hybrid training algorithm. The database pertinent to the optimum network was obtained from 46 subway tunnels in Iran and Turkey which have been constructed by the new Austrian tunneling method (NATM) with similar parameters based on type of their soil. The surface settlement was measured, and the acquired results were compared to the predicted values. The results disclosed that computing intelligence is a good substitute for numerical modeling.

Keywords: Settlement, subway line, FLAC3D, ANFIS method.

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424 GA Based Optimal Feature Extraction Method for Functional Data Classification

Authors: Jun Wan, Zehua Chen, Yingwu Chen, Zhidong Bai

Abstract:

Classification is an interesting problem in functional data analysis (FDA), because many science and application problems end up with classification problems, such as recognition, prediction, control, decision making, management, etc. As the high dimension and high correlation in functional data (FD), it is a key problem to extract features from FD whereas keeping its global characters, which relates to the classification efficiency and precision to heavens. In this paper, a novel automatic method which combined Genetic Algorithm (GA) and classification algorithm to extract classification features is proposed. In this method, the optimal features and classification model are approached via evolutional study step by step. It is proved by theory analysis and experiment test that this method has advantages in improving classification efficiency, precision and robustness whereas using less features and the dimension of extracted classification features can be controlled.

Keywords: Classification, functional data, feature extraction, genetic algorithm, wavelet.

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423 Optimization of Doubly Fed Induction Generator Equivalent Circuit Parameters by Direct Search Method

Authors: Mamidi Ramakrishna Rao

Abstract:

Doubly-fed induction generator (DFIG) is currently the choice for many wind turbines. These generators, when connected to the grid through a converter, is subjected to varied power system conditions like voltage variation, frequency variation, short circuit fault conditions, etc. Further, many countries like Canada, Germany, UK, Scotland, etc. have distinct grid codes relating to wind turbines. Accordingly, following the network faults, wind turbines have to supply a definite reactive current. To satisfy the requirements including reactive current capability, an optimum electrical design becomes a mandate for DFIG to function. This paper intends to optimize the equivalent circuit parameters of an electrical design for satisfactory DFIG performance. Direct search method has been used for optimization of the parameters. The variables selected include electromagnetic core dimensions (diameters and stack length), slot dimensions, radial air gap between stator and rotor and winding copper cross section area. Optimization for 2 MW DFIG has been executed separately for three objective functions - maximum reactive power capability (Case I), maximum efficiency (Case II) and minimum weight (Case III). In the optimization analysis program, voltage variations (10%), power factor- leading and lagging (0.95), speeds for corresponding to slips (-0.3 to +0.3) have been considered. The optimum designs obtained for objective functions were compared. It can be concluded that direct search method of optimization helps in determining an optimum electrical design for each objective function like efficiency or reactive power capability or weight minimization.

Keywords: Direct search, DFIG, equivalent circuit parameters, optimization.

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422 One-Class Support Vector Machines for Protein-Protein Interactions Prediction

Authors: Hany Alashwal, Safaai Deris, Razib M. Othman

Abstract:

Predicting protein-protein interactions represent a key step in understanding proteins functions. This is due to the fact that proteins usually work in context of other proteins and rarely function alone. Machine learning techniques have been applied to predict protein-protein interactions. However, most of these techniques address this problem as a binary classification problem. Although it is easy to get a dataset of interacting proteins as positive examples, there are no experimentally confirmed non-interacting proteins to be considered as negative examples. Therefore, in this paper we solve this problem as a one-class classification problem using one-class support vector machines (SVM). Using only positive examples (interacting protein pairs) in training phase, the one-class SVM achieves accuracy of about 80%. These results imply that protein-protein interaction can be predicted using one-class classifier with comparable accuracy to the binary classifiers that use artificially constructed negative examples.

Keywords: Bioinformatics, Protein-protein interactions, One-Class Support Vector Machines

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421 Analysis and Prediction of the Behavior of the Landslide at Ain El Hammam, Algeria Based on the Second Order Work Criterion

Authors: Zerarka Hizia, Akchiche Mustapha, Prunier Florent

Abstract:

The landslide of Ain El Hammam (AEH) is characterized by a complex geology and a high hydrogeology hazard. AEH's perpetual reactivation compels us to look closely at its triggers and to better understand the mechanisms of its evolution in mass and in depth. This study builds a numerical model to simulate the influencing factors such as precipitation, non-saturation, and pore pressure fluctuations, using Plaxis software. For a finer analysis of instabilities, we use Hill's criterion, based on the sign of the second order work, which is the most appropriate material stability criterion for non-associated elastoplastic materials. The results of this type of calculation allow us, in theory, to predict the shape and position of the slip surface(s) which are liable to ground movements of the slope, before reaching the rupture given by the plastic limit of Mohr Coulomb. To validate the numerical model, an analysis of inclinometer measures is performed to confirm the direction of movement and kinematic of the sliding mechanism of AEH’s slope.

Keywords: Landslide, second order work, precipitation, inclinometers.

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420 Cyclostationary Gaussian Linearization for Analyzing Nonlinear System Response under Sinusoidal Signal and White Noise Excitation

Authors: R. J. Chang

Abstract:

A cyclostationary Gaussian linearization method is formulated for investigating the time average response of nonlinear system under sinusoidal signal and white noise excitation. The quantitative measure of cyclostationary mean, variance, spectrum of mean amplitude, and mean power spectral density of noise are analyzed. The qualitative response behavior of stochastic jump and bifurcation are investigated. The validity of the present approach in predicting the quantitative and qualitative statistical responses is supported by utilizing Monte Carlo simulations. The present analysis without imposing restrictive analytical conditions can be directly derived by solving non-linear algebraic equations. The analytical solution gives reliable quantitative and qualitative prediction of mean and noise response for the Duffing system subjected to both sinusoidal signal and white noise excitation.

Keywords: Cyclostationary, Duffing system, Gaussian linearization, sinusoidal signal and white noise.

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419 Application of Feed-Forward Neural Networks Autoregressive Models in Gross Domestic Product Prediction

Authors: Ε. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present an autoregressive model with neural networks modeling and standard error backpropagation algorithm training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of four countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer after the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model in the out-of-sample period. The idea behind this approach is to propose a parametric regression with weighted variables in order to test for the statistical significance and the magnitude of the estimated autoregressive coefficients and simultaneously to estimate the forecasts.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Error back-propagation Feed-Forward neural networks, , Gross Domestic Product

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418 Application of Feed-Forward Neural Networks Autoregressive Models with Genetic Algorithm in Gross Domestic Product Prediction

Authors: E. Giovanis

Abstract:

In this paper we present a Feed-Foward Neural Networks Autoregressive (FFNN-AR) model with genetic algorithms training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic product growth of six countries. Specifically we propose a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer of the training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of autoregressive model. Moreover this technique can be used in Autoregressive-Moving Average models, with and without exogenous inputs, as also the training process with genetics algorithms optimization can be replaced by the error back-propagation algorithm.

Keywords: Autoregressive model, Feed-Forward neuralnetworks, Genetic Algorithms, Gross Domestic Product

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417 Application of GM (1, 1) Model Group Based on Recursive Solution in China's Energy Demand Forecasting

Authors: Yeqing Guan, Fen Yang

Abstract:

To learn about China-s future energy demand, this paper first proposed GM(1,1) model group based on recursive solutions of parameters estimation, setting up a general solving-algorithm of the model group. This method avoided the problems occurred on the past researches that remodeling, loss of information and large amount of calculation. This paper established respectively all-data-GM(1,1), metabolic GM(1,1) and new information GM (1,1)model according to the historical data of energy consumption in China in the year 2005-2010 and the added data of 2011, then modeling, simulating and comparison of accuracies we got the optimal models and to predict. Results showed that the total energy demand of China will be 37.2221 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2012 and 39.7973 billion tons of equivalent coal in 2013, which are as the same as the overall planning of energy demand in The 12th Five-Year Plan.

Keywords: energy demands, GM(1, 1) model group, least square estimation, prediction

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416 An Algorithm for Determining the Arrival Behavior of a Secondary User to a Base Station in Cognitive Radio Networks

Authors: Danilo López, Edwin Rivas, Leyla López

Abstract:

This paper presents the development of an algorithm that predicts the arrival of a secondary user (SU) to a base station (BS) in a cognitive network based on infrastructure, requesting a Best Effort (BE) or Real Time (RT) type of service with a determined bandwidth (BW) implementing neural networks. The algorithm dynamically uses a neural network construction technique using the geometric pyramid topology and trains a Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks (MLPNN) based on the historical arrival of an SU to estimate future applications. This will allow efficiently managing the information in the BS, since it precedes the arrival of the SUs in the stage of selection of the best channel in CRN. As a result, the software application determines the probability of arrival at a future time point and calculates the performance metrics to measure the effectiveness of the predictions made.

Keywords: Cognitive radio, MLPNN, base station, prediction, best effort, real time.

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415 Implication and Genetic Variations on Lipid Profile of the Fasting Respondent

Authors: Rohayu Izanwati M. R., Muhamad Ridhwan M. R., Abbe Maleyki M. J., Ahmad Zubaidi A. L., Zahri M. K.

Abstract:

PPARs function as regulators of lipid and lipoprotein metabolism. The aim of the study was to compare the lipid profile between two phases of fasting and to examine the frequency and relationship of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor, PPARα gene polymorphisms to lipid profile in fasting respondents. We conducted a case-control study protocol, which included 21 healthy volunteers without gender discrimination at the age of 18 years old. 3 ml of blood sample was drawn before the fasting phase and during the fasting phase (in Ramadhan month). 1ml of serum for the lipid profile was analyzed by using the automated chemistry analyser (Olympus, AU 400) and the data were analysed using the Paired T-Test (SPSS ver.20). DNA was extracted and PCR was conducted utilising 6 sets of primer. Primers were designed within 6 exons of interest in PPARα gene. Genetic and metabolic characteristics of fasting respondents and controls were estimated and compared. Fasting respondents were significantly have lowered the LDL levels (p=0.03). There were no polymorphisms detected except in exon 1 with 5% of this population study respectively. The polymorphisms in exon 1 of the PPARα gene were found in low frequency. Regarding the 1375G/T and 1386G/T polymorphisms in the exon 1 of the PPARα gene, the T-allele in fasting phase had no association with the decreased LDL levels (Fisher Exact Test). However this association is more promising when the sample size is larger in order to elucidate the precise impact of the polymorphisms on lipid profile in the population. In conclusion, the PPARα gene polymorphisms do not appear to affect the LDL of fasting respondents.

Keywords: Fasting, LDL, Peroxisome proliferator activated receptor alpha (PPAR-α), Polymorphisms.

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414 Comparative Evaluation of Accuracy of Selected Machine Learning Classification Techniques for Diagnosis of Cancer: A Data Mining Approach

Authors: Rajvir Kaur, Jeewani Anupama Ginige

Abstract:

With recent trends in Big Data and advancements in Information and Communication Technologies, the healthcare industry is at the stage of its transition from clinician oriented to technology oriented. Many people around the world die of cancer because the diagnosis of disease was not done at an early stage. Nowadays, the computational methods in the form of Machine Learning (ML) are used to develop automated decision support systems that can diagnose cancer with high confidence in a timely manner. This paper aims to carry out the comparative evaluation of a selected set of ML classifiers on two existing datasets: breast cancer and cervical cancer. The ML classifiers compared in this study are Decision Tree (DT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN), Logistic Regression, Ensemble (Bagged Tree) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The evaluation is carried out based on standard evaluation metrics Precision (P), Recall (R), F1-score and Accuracy. The experimental results based on the evaluation metrics show that ANN showed the highest-level accuracy (99.4%) when tested with breast cancer dataset. On the other hand, when these ML classifiers are tested with the cervical cancer dataset, Ensemble (Bagged Tree) technique gave better accuracy (93.1%) in comparison to other classifiers.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, breast cancer, cancer dataset, classifiers, cervical cancer, F-score, logistic regression, machine learning, precision, recall, support vector machine.

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