Search results for: regression models.

Authors: Benedek Kovacs, Janos Toth

Abstract:

Solutions are proposed for the central problem of estimating the reaction rate coefficients in homogeneous kinetics. The first is based upon the fact that the right hand side of a kinetic differential equation is linear in the rate constants, whereas the second one uses the technique of neural networks. This second one is discussed deeply and its advantages, disadvantages and conditions of applicability are analyzed in the mirror of the first one. Numerical analysis carried out on practical models using simulated data, and our programs written in Mathematica.

Keywords: Neural networks, parameter estimation, linear regression, kinetic models, reaction rate coefficients.

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Authors: S. Golmohammadi, M. Noorian Bidgoli

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Tunneling progress is a key parameter in the blasting method of tunneling. Taking measures to enhance tunneling advance can limit the progress distance without a supporting system, subsequently reducing or eliminating the risk of damage. This paper focuses on modeling tunneling progress using three main groups of parameters (tunneling geometry, blasting pattern, and rock mass specifications) based on the Rock Engineering Systems (RES) methodology. In the proposed models, four main effective parameters on tunneling progress are considered as inputs (RMR, Q-system, Specific charge of blasting, Area), with progress as the output. Data from 86 blasts conducted at the tailrace tunnel in the Azad Dam, western Iran, were used to evaluate the progress value for each blast. The results indicated that, for the 86 blasts, the progress of the estimated model aligns mostly with the measured progress. This paper presents a method for building the interaction matrix (statistical base) of the RES model. Additionally, a comparison was made between the results of the new RES-based model and a Multi-Linear Regression (MLR) analysis model. In the RES-based model, the effective parameters are RMR (35.62%), Q (28.6%), q (specific charge of blasting) (20.35%), and A (15.42%), respectively, whereas for MLR analysis, the main parameters are RMR, Q (system), q, and A. These findings confirm the superior performance of the RES-based model over the other proposed models.

Keywords: Rock Engineering Systems, tunneling progress, Multi Linear Regression, Specific charge of blasting.

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Authors: M. Siosemarde, M. Byzedi

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Saturated hydraulic conductivity of Soil is an important property in processes involving water and solute flow in soils. Saturated hydraulic conductivity of soil is difficult to measure and can be highly variable, requiring a large number of replicate samples. In this study, 60 sets of soil samples were collected at Saqhez region of Kurdistan province-IRAN. The statistics such as Correlation Coefficient (R), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Bias Error (MBE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) were used to evaluation the multiple linear regression models varied with number of dataset. In this study the multiple linear regression models were evaluated when only percentage of sand, silt, and clay content (SSC) were used as inputs, and when SSC and bulk density, Bd, (SSC+Bd) were used as inputs. The R, RMSE, MBE and MAE values of the 50 dataset for method (SSC), were calculated 0.925, 15.29, -1.03 and 12.51 and for method (SSC+Bd), were calculated 0.927, 15.28,-1.11 and 12.92, respectively, for relationship obtained from multiple linear regressions on data. Also the R, RMSE, MBE and MAE values of the 10 dataset for method (SSC), were calculated 0.725, 19.62, - 9.87 and 18.91 and for method (SSC+Bd), were calculated 0.618, 24.69, -17.37 and 22.16, respectively, which shows when number of dataset increase, precision of estimated saturated hydraulic conductivity, increases.

Keywords: dataset, precision, saturated hydraulic conductivity, soil and statistics.

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Authors: John Hadden, Ashutosh Tiwari, Rajkumar Roy, Dymitr Ruta

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The aim of this paper is to identify the most suitable model for churn prediction based on three different techniques. The paper identifies the variables that affect churn in reverence of customer complaints data and provides a comparative analysis of neural networks, regression trees and regression in their capabilities of predicting customer churn.

Keywords: Churn, Decision Trees, Neural Networks, Regression.

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Authors: Sotirios Raptis

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Bayesian reasoning (BR) or Linear (Auto) Regression (AR/LR) can predict different sources of data using priors or other data, and can link social service demands in cohorts, while their consideration in isolation (self-prediction) may lead to service misuse ignoring the context. The paper advocates that BR with Binomial (BD), or Normal (ND) models or raw data (.D) as probabilistic updates can be compared to AR/LR to link services in Scotland and reduce cost by sharing healthcare (HC) resources. Clustering, cross-correlation, along with BR, LR, AR can better predict demand. Insurance companies and policymakers can link such services, and examples include those offered to the elderly, and low-income people, smoking-related services linked to mental health services, or epidemiological weight in children. 22 service packs are used that are published by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland and Scottish Government (SG) from 1981 to 2019, broken into 110 year series (factors), joined using LR, AR, BR. The Primary component analysis found 11 significant factors, while C-Means (CM) clustering gave five major clusters.

Keywords: Bayesian probability, cohorts, data frames, regression, services, prediction.

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Authors: Snezhana G. Gocheva-Ilieva, Maya P. Stoimenova

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Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Keywords: Cross-validation, decision tree, lagged variables, short-term forecasting.

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Authors: Abdellatif Tchantchane

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A Matlab based software for logistic regression is developed to enhance the process of teaching quantitative topics and assist researchers with analyzing wide area of applications where categorical data is involved. The software offers an option of performing stepwise logistic regression to select the most significant predictors. The software includes a feature to detect influential observations in data, and investigates the effect of dropping or misclassifying an observation on a predictor variable. The input data may consist either as a set of individual responses (yes/no) with the predictor variables or as grouped records summarizing various categories for each unique set of predictor variables' values. Graphical displays are used to output various statistical results and to assess the goodness of fit of the logistic regression model. The software recognizes possible convergence constraints when present in data, and the user is notified accordingly.

Keywords: Logistic regression, Matlab, Categorical data, Influential observation.

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Authors: Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi, Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi

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Qingdao is a seaside city. Taking into account the characteristics of Qingdao, this article established a multiple linear regression model to analyze the impact of macroeconomic factors on housing prices. We used stepwise regression method to make multiple linear regression analysis, and made statistical analysis of F test values and T test values. According to the analysis results, the model is continuously optimized. Finally, this article obtained the multiple linear regression equation and the influencing factors, and the reliability of the model was verified by F test and T test.

Keywords: Housing prices, multiple linear regression model, macroeconomic factors, Qingdao City.

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Authors: Paria Soleimani, Arezoo Neshati

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Myocardial infarction is one of the leading causes of death in the world. Some of these deaths occur even before the patient reaches the hospital. Myocardial infarction occurs as a result of impaired blood supply. Because the most of these deaths are due to coronary artery disease, hence the awareness of the warning signs of a heart attack is essential. Some heart attacks are sudden and intense, but most of them start slowly, with mild pain or discomfort, then early detection and successful treatment of these symptoms is vital to save them. Therefore, importance and usefulness of a system designing to assist physicians in early diagnosis of the acute heart attacks is obvious. The main purpose of this study would be to enable patients to become better informed about their condition and to encourage them to seek professional care at an earlier stage in the appropriate situations. For this purpose, the data were collected on 711 heart patients in Iran hospitals. 28 attributes of clinical factors can be reported by patients; were studied. Three logistic regression models were made on the basis of the 28 features to predict the risk of heart attacks. The best logistic regression model in terms of performance had a C-index of 0.955 and with an accuracy of 94.9%. The variables, severe chest pain, back pain, cold sweats, shortness of breath, nausea and vomiting, were selected as the main features.

Keywords: Coronary heart disease, acute heart attacks, prediction, logistic regression.

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Authors: Fatemeh Afsharnia, Mohammad Amin Asoodar, Abbas Abdeshahi

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In economical evaluation literature, although the combination of some variables such as repair and maintenance costs and accumulated use hours has been widely considered in determining of optimum life for tractor, no investigation has indicated the influence of failure rate on repair and maintenance costs. In this study, the owners of three hundred tractors, which include Massey Ferguson, John Deere and Universal, were interviewed, from five regions of Khouzestan Province. A regression model was used to predict the tractors annual repair and maintenance costs based on failure rate. Results showed that the maximum percentage of annual repair and maintenance costs occurred in engine parts for MF285, JD3140 and U650 tractors while these costs for tire, ring, ball bearing and operator seat were higher compared to other MF399 tractor systems. According to the results of the regression, the failure rate increase would lead to annual repair and maintenance costs increase for all tractors. But, of all the tractors, repair and maintenance costs of JD3140 tractors extremely affected by the failure rate increase.

Keywords: Failure rate, tractor, annual repair and maintenance costs, regression model, Khouzestan.

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Authors: Nuanpan Nangsue

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Ratio and regression type estimators have been used by previous authors to estimate a population mean for the principal variable from samples in which both auxiliary x and principal y variable data are available. However, missing data are a common problem in statistical analyses with real data. Ratio and regression type estimators have also been used for imputing values of missing y data. In this paper, six new ratio and regression type estimators are proposed for imputing values for any missing y data and estimating a population mean for y from samples with missing x and/or y data. A simulation study has been conducted to compare the six ratio and regression type estimators with a previous estimator of Rueda. Two population sizes N = 1,000 and 5,000 have been considered with sample sizes of 10% and 30% and with correlation coefficients between population variables X and Y of 0.5 and 0.8. In the simulations, 10 and 40 percent of sample y values and 10 and 40 percent of sample x values were randomly designated as missing. The new ratio and regression type estimators give similar mean absolute percentage errors that are smaller than the Rueda estimator for all cases. The new estimators give a large reduction in errors for the case of 40% missing y values and sampling fraction of 30%.

Keywords: Auxiliary variable, missing data, ratio and regression type estimators.

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Authors: Nahla H. Alaswadko, Rayya A. Hassan, Bayar N. Mohammed

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Empirical deterministic models have been developed to predict roughness progression of heavy duty spray sealed pavements for a dataset representing rural arterial roads. The dataset provides a good representation of the relevant network and covers a wide range of operating and environmental conditions. A sample with a large size of historical time series data for many pavement sections has been collected and prepared for use in multilevel regression analysis. The modelling parameters include road roughness as performance parameter and traffic loading, time, initial pavement strength, reactivity level of subgrade soil, climate condition, and condition of drainage system as predictor parameters. The purpose of this paper is to report the approaches adopted for models development and validation. The study presents multilevel models that can account for the correlation among time series data of the same section and to capture the effect of unobserved variables. Study results show that the models fit the data very well. The contribution and significance of relevant influencing factors in predicting roughness progression are presented and explained. The paper concludes that the analysis approach used for developing the models confirmed their accuracy and reliability by well-fitting to the validation data.

Keywords: Roughness progression, empirical model, pavement performance, heavy duty pavement.

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Authors: Farhad Kolahan, Mohammad Bironro

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This paper addresses modeling and optimization of process parameters in powder mixed electrical discharge machining (PMEDM). The process output characteristics include metal removal rate (MRR) and electrode wear rate (EWR). Grain size of Aluminum powder (S), concentration of the powder (C), discharge current (I) pulse on time (T) are chosen as control variables to study the process performance. The experimental results are used to develop the regression models based on second order polynomial equations for the different process characteristics. Then, a genetic algorithm (GA) has been employed to determine optimal process parameters for any desired output values of machining characteristics.

Keywords: Regression modeling, PMEDM, GeneticAlgorithm, Optimization.

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Authors: R.Abbaszadeh, A.Rajabipour, M.Delshad, M.J.Mahjub, H.Ahmadi

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It is difficult to judge ripeness by outward characteristics such as size or external color. In this paper a nondestructive method was studied to determine watermelon (Crimson Sweet) quality. Responses of samples to excitation vibrations were detected using laser Doppler vibrometry (LDV) technology. Phase shift between input and output vibrations were extracted overall frequency range. First and second were derived using frequency response spectrums. After nondestructive tests, watermelons were sensory evaluated. So the samples were graded in a range of ripeness based on overall acceptability (total desired traits consumers). Regression models were developed to predict quality using obtained results and sample mass. The determination coefficients of the calibration and cross validation models were 0.89 and 0.71 respectively. This study demonstrated feasibility of information which is derived vibration response curves for predicting fruit quality. The vibration response of watermelon using the LDV method is measured without direct contact; it is accurate and timely, which could result in significant advantage for classifying watermelons based on consumer opinions.

Keywords: Laser Doppler vibrometry, Phase shift, Overallacceptability, Regression model , Resonance frequency, Watermelon

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Authors: Madhusudan Purohit, Stephen Philip, Bharathkumar Inturi

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In this paper we report the quantitative structure activity relationship of novel bis-triazole derivatives for predicting the activity profile. The full model encompassed a dataset of 46 Bis- triazoles. Tripos Sybyl X 2.0 program was used to conduct CoMSIA QSAR modeling. The Partial Least-Squares (PLS) analysis method was used to conduct statistical analysis and to derive a QSAR model based on the field values of CoMSIA descriptor. The compounds were divided into test and training set. The compounds were evaluated by various CoMSIA parameters to predict the best QSAR model. An optimum numbers of components were first determined separately by cross-validation regression for CoMSIA model, which were then applied in the final analysis. A series of parameters were used for the study and the best fit model was obtained using donor, partition coefficient and steric parameters. The CoMSIA models demonstrated good statistical results with regression coefficient (r²) and the cross-validated coefficient (q²) of 0.575 and 0.830 respectively. The standard error for the predicted model was 0.16322. In the CoMSIA model, the steric descriptors make a marginally larger contribution than the electrostatic descriptors. The finding that the steric descriptor is the largest contributor for the CoMSIA QSAR models is consistent with the observation that more than half of the binding site area is occupied by steric regions.

Keywords: 3D QSAR, CoMSIA, Triazoles.

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Authors: Aboagela Dogman, Reza Saatchi, Samir Al-Khayatt

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In this study, a network quality of service (QoS) evaluation system was proposed. The system used a combination of fuzzy C-means (FCM) and regression model to analyse and assess the QoS in a simulated network. Network QoS parameters of multimedia applications were intelligently analysed by FCM clustering algorithm. The QoS parameters for each FCM cluster centre were then inputted to a regression model in order to quantify the overall QoS. The proposed QoS evaluation system provided valuable information about the network-s QoS patterns and based on this information, the overall network-s QoS was effectively quantified.

Keywords: Fuzzy C-means; regression model, network quality of service

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Authors: D. S. Gomes, A. T. Silva

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Analysis of the uncertainty quantification related to nuclear safety margins applied to the nuclear reactor is an important concept to prevent future radioactive accidents. The nuclear fuel performance code may involve the tolerance level determined by traditional deterministic models producing acceptable results at burn cycles under 62 GWd/MTU. The behavior of nuclear fuel can simulate applying a series of material properties under irradiation and physics models to calculate the safety limits. In this study, theoretical predictions of nuclear fuel failure under transient conditions investigate extended radiation cycles at 75 GWd/MTU, considering the behavior of fuel rods in light-water reactors under reactivity accident conditions. The fuel pellet can melt due to the quick increase of reactivity during a transient. Large power excursions in the reactor are the subject of interest bringing to a treatment that is known as the Fuchs-Hansen model. The point kinetic neutron equations show similar characteristics of non-linear differential equations. In this investigation, the multivariate logistic regression is employed to a probabilistic forecast of fuel failure. A comparison of computational simulation and experimental results was acceptable. The experiments carried out use the pre-irradiated fuels rods subjected to a rapid energy pulse which exhibits the same behavior during a nuclear accident. The propagation of uncertainty utilizes the Wilk's formulation. The variables chosen as essential to failure prediction were the fuel burnup, the applied peak power, the pulse width, the oxidation layer thickness, and the cladding type.

Keywords: Logistic regression, reactivity-initiated accident, safety margins, uncertainty propagation.

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Authors: Viacheslav Shkuratskyy, Aminu Bello Usman, Michael O’Dea, Mujeeb Ur Rehman, Saifur Rahman Sabuj

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This paper examines relationships between solar activity and earthquakes, it applied machine learning techniques: K-nearest neighbour, support vector regression, random forest regression, and long short-term memory network. Data from the SILSO World Data Center, the NOAA National Center, the GOES satellite, NASA OMNIWeb, and the United States Geological Survey were used for the experiment. The 23rd and 24th solar cycles, daily sunspot number, solar wind velocity, proton density, and proton temperature were all included in the dataset. The study also examined sunspots, solar wind, and solar flares, which all reflect solar activity, and earthquake frequency distribution by magnitude and depth. The findings showed that the long short-term memory network model predicts earthquakes more correctly than the other models applied in the study, and solar activity is more likely to effect earthquakes of lower magnitude and shallow depth than earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or larger with intermediate depth and deep depth

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Keywords: K-Nearest Neighbour, Support Vector Regression, Random Forest Regression, Long Short-Term Memory Network, earthquakes, solar activity, sunspot number, solar wind, solar flares.

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Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

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Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: Crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest.

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Authors: Hyeong-Geon Lee, Jae-Young Park, Suk-ki Lee, Jong-Tae Kim

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The LMS adaptive filter has several parameters which can affect their performance. From among these parameters, most papers handle the step size parameter for controlling the performance. In this paper, we approach three parameters: step-size, filter tap-size and filter form. The regression analysis is used for defining the relation between parameters and performance of LMS adaptive filter with using the system level simulation results. The results present that all parameters have performance trends in each own particular form, which can be estimated from equations drawn by regression analysis.

Keywords: System level model, adaptive LMS FIR filter, regression analysis, systemC.

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Authors: Yakin Hajlaoui, Richard Labib, Jean-Franc¸ois Plante, Michel Gamache

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This study presents the Multi-Layer Inverse Distance Weighting Model (ML-IDW), inspired by the mathematical formulation of both multi-layer neural networks (ML-NNs) and Inverse Distance Weighting model (IDW). ML-IDW leverages ML-NNs’ processing capabilities, characterized by compositions of learnable non-linear functions applied to input features, and incorporates IDW’s ability to learn anisotropic spatial dependencies, presenting a promising solution for nonlinear spatial interpolation and learning from complex spatial data. We employ gradient descent and backpropagation to train ML-IDW. The performance of the proposed model is compared against conventional spatial interpolation models such as Kriging and standard IDW on regression and classification tasks using simulated spatial datasets of varying complexity. Our results highlight the efficacy of ML-IDW, particularly in handling complex spatial dataset, exhibiting lower mean square error in regression and higher F1 score in classification.

Keywords: Deep Learning, Multi-Layer Neural Networks, Gradient Descent, Spatial Interpolation, Inverse Distance Weighting.

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Authors: Aly Farag, Ayman El-Baz, Refaat Mohamed

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In this paper we present a novel approach for density estimation. The proposed approach is based on using the logistic regression model to get initial density estimation for the given empirical density. The empirical data does not exactly follow the logistic regression model, so, there will be a deviation between the empirical density and the density estimated using logistic regression model. This deviation may be positive and/or negative. In this paper we use a linear combination of Gaussian (LCG) with positive and negative components as a model for this deviation. Also, we will use the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the parameters of LCG. Experiments on real images demonstrate the accuracy of our approach.

Keywords: Logistic regression model, Expectationmaximization, Segmentation.

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Authors: Pavan S., Sridhar G., Sridhar V.

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Super resolution is one of the commonly referred inference problems in computer vision. In the case of images, this problem is generally addressed using a graphical model framework wherein each node represents a portion of the image and the edges between the nodes represent the statistical dependencies. However, the large dimensionality of images along with the large number of possible states for a node makes the inference problem computationally intractable. In this paper, we propose a representation wherein each node can be represented as acombination of multiple regression functions. The proposed approach achieves a tradeoff between the computational complexity and inference accuracy by varying the number of regression functions for a node.

Keywords: Belief propagation, Graphical model, Regression, Super resolution.

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Authors: Wint Thida Zaw, Thinn Thu Naing

Abstract:

One of the essential sectors of Myanmar economy is agriculture which is sensitive to climate variation. The most important climatic element which impacts on agriculture sector is rainfall. Thus rainfall prediction becomes an important issue in agriculture country. Multi variables polynomial regression (MPR) provides an effective way to describe complex nonlinear input output relationships so that an outcome variable can be predicted from the other or others. In this paper, the modeling of monthly rainfall prediction over Myanmar is described in detail by applying the polynomial regression equation. The proposed model results are compared to the results produced by multiple linear regression model (MLR). Experiments indicate that the prediction model based on MPR has higher accuracy than using MLR.

Keywords: Polynomial Regression, Rainfall Forecasting, Statistical forecasting.

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Authors: Yogesh Aggarwal

Abstract:

The paper discusses the results obtained to predict reinforcement in singly reinforced beam using Neural Net (NN), Support Vector Machines (SVM-s) and Tree Based Models. Major advantage of SVM-s over NN is of minimizing a bound on the generalization error of model rather than minimizing a bound on mean square error over the data set as done in NN. Tree Based approach divides the problem into a small number of sub problems to reach at a conclusion. Number of data was created for different parameters of beam to calculate the reinforcement using limit state method for creation of models and validation. The results from this study suggest a remarkably good performance of tree based and SVM-s models. Further, this study found that these two techniques work well and even better than Neural Network methods. A comparison of predicted values with actual values suggests a very good correlation coefficient with all four techniques.

Keywords: Linear Regression, M5 Model Tree, Neural Network, Support Vector Machines.

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Authors: Siti Nurhidayah Naqiah Abdull Rani, Herlina Abdul Rahim, Rashidah Ghazali, Noramli Abdul Razak

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Near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has always been of great interest in the food and agriculture industries. The development of prediction models has facilitated the estimation process in recent years. In this study, 110 crude palm oil (CPO) samples were used to build a free fatty acid (FFA) prediction model. 60% of the collected data were used for training purposes and the remaining 40% used for testing. The visible peaks on the NIR spectrum were at 1725 nm and 1760 nm, indicating the existence of the first overtone of C-H bands. Principal component regression (PCR) was applied to the data in order to build this mathematical prediction model. The optimal number of principal components was 10. The results showed R2=0.7147 for the training set and R2=0.6404 for the testing set.

Keywords: Palm oil, fatty acid, NIRS, regression.

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Authors: C. I. Abiodun, S. O. Azi, J. S. Ojo, P. Akinyemi

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The design of accurate and reliable mobile communication systems depends majorly on the suitability of path loss prediction methods and the adaptability of the methods to various environments of interest. In this research, the results of the adaptability of radio channel behavior are presented based on practical measurements carried out in the 1800 MHz frequency band. The measurements are carried out in typical urban, suburban and rural environments in Ekiti State, Southwestern part of Nigeria. A total number of seven base stations of MTN GSM service located in the studied environments were monitored. Path loss and break point distances were deduced from the measured received signal strength (RSS) and a practical path loss model is proposed based on the deduced break point distances. The proposed two slope model, regression line and four existing path loss models were compared with the measured path loss values. The standard deviations of each model with respect to the measured path loss were estimated for each base station. The proposed model and regression line exhibited lowest standard deviations followed by the Cost231-Hata model when compared with the Erceg Ericsson and SUI models. Generally, the proposed two-slope model shows closest agreement with the measured values with a mean error values of 2 to 6 dB. These results show that, either the proposed two slope model or Cost 231-Hata model may be used to predict path loss values in mobile micro cell coverage in the well-considered environments. Information from this work will be useful for link design of microwave band wireless access systems in the region.

Keywords: Break-point distances, path loss models, path loss exponent, received signal strength.

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Authors: D Sudheer Reddy, N Gopal Reddy, P V Radhadevi, J Saibaba, Geeta Varadan

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Smoothing or filtering of data is first preprocessing step for noise suppression in many applications involving data analysis. Moving average is the most popular method of smoothing the data, generalization of this led to the development of Savitzky-Golay filter. Many window smoothing methods were developed by convolving the data with different window functions for different applications; most widely used window functions are Gaussian or Kaiser. Function approximation of the data by polynomial regression or Fourier expansion or wavelet expansion also gives a smoothed data. Wavelets also smooth the data to great extent by thresholding the wavelet coefficients. Almost all smoothing methods destroys the peaks and flatten them when the support of the window is increased. In certain applications it is desirable to retain peaks while smoothing the data as much as possible. In this paper we present a methodology called as peak-wise smoothing that will smooth the data to any desired level without losing the major peak features.

Keywords: smoothing, moving average, peakwise smoothing, spatialdensity models, planar shape models, wavelets.

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Authors: Y. Tiamaz, N. Souissi

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The purpose of this paper is to present a classification of Lean models which aims to capture all the concepts related to this approach and thus facilitate its implementation. This classification allows the identification of the most relevant models according to several dimensions. From this perspective, we present a review and an analysis of Lean models literature and we propose dimensions for the classification of the current proposals while respecting among others the axes of the Lean approach, the maturity of the models as well as their application domains. This classification allowed us to conclude that researchers essentially consider the Lean approach as a toolbox also they design their models to solve problems related to a specific environment. Since Lean approach is no longer intended only for the automotive sector where it was invented, but to all fields (IT, Hospital, ...), we consider that this approach requires a generic model that is capable of being implemented in all areas.

Keywords: Lean approach, lean models, classification, dimensions, holistic view.

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Authors: A. M. Pashayev, C. Ardil, D. D. Askerov, R. A. Sadiqov, P. S. Abdullayev

Abstract:

In this paper is shown that the probability-statistic methods application, especially at the early stage of the aviation gas turbine engine (GTE) technical condition diagnosing, when the flight information has property of the fuzzy, limitation and uncertainty is unfounded. Hence is considered the efficiency of application of new technology Soft Computing at these diagnosing stages with the using of the Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks methods. Training with high accuracy of fuzzy multiple linear and non-linear models (fuzzy regression equations) which received on the statistical fuzzy data basis is made. Thus for GTE technical condition more adequate model making are analysed dynamics of skewness and kurtosis coefficients' changes. Researches of skewness and kurtosis coefficients values- changes show that, distributions of GTE work parameters have fuzzy character. Hence consideration of fuzzy skewness and kurtosis coefficients is expedient. Investigation of the basic characteristics changes- dynamics of GTE work parameters allows to draw conclusion on necessity of the Fuzzy Statistical Analysis at preliminary identification of the engines' technical condition. Researches of correlation coefficients values- changes shows also on their fuzzy character. Therefore for models choice the application of the Fuzzy Correlation Analysis results is offered. For checking of models adequacy is considered the Fuzzy Multiple Correlation Coefficient of Fuzzy Multiple Regression. At the information sufficiency is offered to use recurrent algorithm of aviation GTE technical condition identification (Hard Computing technology is used) on measurements of input and output parameters of the multiple linear and non-linear generalised models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive Least Squares Method (LSM)). The developed GTE condition monitoring system provides stage-bystage estimation of engine technical conditions. As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine temperature condition was made.

Keywords: Gas turbine engines, neural networks, fuzzy logic, fuzzy statistics.

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