Search results for: performance management system.
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 13615

Search results for: performance management system.

13525 A System for Performance Evaluation of Embedded Software

Authors: Yong-Yoon Cho, Jong-Bae Moon, Young-Chul Kim

Abstract:

Developers need to evaluate software's performance to make software efficient. This paper suggests a performance evaluation system for embedded software. The suggested system consists of code analyzer, testing agents, data analyzer, and report viewer. The code analyzer inserts additional code dependent on target system into source code and compiles the source code. The testing agents execute performance test. The data analyzer translates raw-level results data to class-level APIs for reporting viewer. The report viewer offers users graphical report views by using the APIs. We hope that the suggested tool will be useful for embedded-related software development,because developers can easily and intuitively analyze software's performance and resource utilization.

Keywords: Embedded Software, Performance EvaluationSystem, Testing Agents, Report Generator

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13524 Clinical Benefits of an Embedded Decision Support System in Anticoagulant Control

Authors: Tony Austin, Shanghua Sun, Nathan Lea, Steve Iliffe, Dipak Kalra, David Ingram, David Patterson

Abstract:

Computer-based decision support (CDSS) systems can deliver real patient care and increase chances of long-term survival in areas of chronic disease management prone to poor control. One such CDSS, for the management of warfarin, is described in this paper and the outcomes shown. Data is derived from the running system and show a performance consistently around 20% better than the applicable guidelines.

Keywords: "Decision Support", "Anticoagulant Control"

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13523 Maximizing the Efficiency of Knowledge Management Systems

Authors: Tori R. Dodla, Laura A. Jones

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to propose strategies to improve the efficiency of Knowledge Management Systems (KMS). This study highlights best practices from various industries to create an overall summary of Knowledge Management (KM) and efficiency in organizational performance. Results indicated 11 best practices for maximizing the efficiency of organizational KMS that can be divided into four categories: Designing the KMS, identifying case studies, implementing the KMS, and promoting adoption and usage. Our findings can be used as a foundation for scholars to conduct further research on KMS efficiency.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, knowledge management efficiency, knowledge management systems, organizational performance.

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13522 An Expert System Designed to Be Used with MOEAs for Efficient Portfolio Selection

Authors: K. Metaxiotis, K. Liagkouras

Abstract:

This study presents an Expert System specially designed to be used with Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) for the solution of the portfolio selection problem. The validation of the proposed hybrid System is done by using data sets from Hang Seng 31 in Hong Kong, DAX 100 in Germany and FTSE 100 in UK. The performance of the proposed system is assessed in comparison with the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGAII). The evaluation of the performance is based on different performance metrics that evaluate both the proximity of the solutions to the Pareto front and their dispersion on it. The results show that the proposed hybrid system is efficient for the solution of this kind of problems.

Keywords: Expert Systems, Multiobjective optimization, Evolutionary Algorithms, Portfolio Selection.

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13521 Development of Maintenance Schedule and Root Cause Analysis Based on Computerized Maintenance Management System for a Fertilizer Plant

Authors: Sanjeev Kumar

Abstract:

This paper deals with development of Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS) for a fertilizer plant. The software is advanced, easy to use, less complex, less expensive and also less time consuming. It consists of number of modules like detailed information of equipment, maintenance procedures, work order and employees detail. The objectives of CMMS are to reduce overall downtime, overall yearly maintenance cost and occurrence of failures of the equipment and to get day-by-day maintenance plan and strategy. In this regard, the behavioral chart for urea prilling unit at Fertilizer plant has been developed in form of Root Cause Analysis (RCA). Besides this, a maintenance program has also been proposed and used for the purpose of maintenance planning of the urea prilling unit. The outcome of software has been consulted with the concerned plant individuals and found to be extremely favorable for improving the performance level of the concerned plant.

Keywords: Computerized maintenance management system, root cause analysis, maintenance schedule, urea prilling system.

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13520 GPS INS Integration Application in Flight Management System

Authors: Othman Maklouf, Abdurazag Ghila, Saleh Gashoot, Ahmed Abdulla

Abstract:

Flight management system (FMS) is a specialized computer system that automates a wide variety of in-flight tasks, reducing the workload on the flight crew to the point that modern aircraft no longer carry flight engineers or navigators. The primary function of FMS is to perform the in-flight management of the flight plan using various sensors (such as GPS and INS often backed up by radio navigation) to determine the aircraft's position. From the cockpit FMS is normally controlled through a Control Display Unit (CDU) which incorporates a small screen and keyboard or touch screen. This paper investigates the performance of GPS/ INS integration techniques in which the data fusion process is done using Kalman filtering. This will include the importance of sensors calibration as well as the alignment of the strap down inertial navigation system. The limitations of the inertial navigation systems are investigated in order to understand why INS sometimes is integrated with other navigation aids and not just operating in standalone mode. Finally, both the loosely coupled and tightly coupled configurations are analyzed for several types of situations and operational conditions.

Keywords: GPS, INS, Kalman Filter.

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13519 An Archetype to Sustain Knowledge Management Systems through Intranet

Authors: B. T. Sayed, Nafaâ Jabeur, M. Aref

Abstract:

Creation and maintenance of knowledge management systems has been recognized as an important research area. Consecutively lack of accurate results from knowledge management systems limits the organization to apply their knowledge management processes. This leads to a failure in getting the right information to the right people at the right time thus followed by a deficiency in decision making processes. An Intranet offers a powerful tool for communication and collaboration, presenting data and information, and the means that creates and shares knowledge, all in one easily accessible place. This paper proposes an archetype describing how a knowledge management system, with the support of intranet capabilities, could very much increase the accuracy of capturing, storing and retrieving knowledge based processes thereby increasing the efficiency of the system. This system will expect a critical mass of usage, by the users, for intranet to function as knowledge management systems. This prototype would lead to a design of an application that would impose creation and maintenance of an effective knowledge management system through intranet. The aim of this paper is to introduce an effective system to handle capture, store and distribute knowledge management in a form that may not lead to any failure which exists in most of the systems. The methodology used in the system would require all the employees, in the organization, to contribute the maximum to deliver the system to a successful arena. The system is still in its initial mode and thereby the authors are under the process to practically implement the ideas, as mentioned in the system, to produce satisfactory results.

Keywords: Knowledge Management Systems, Intranet, Methodology.

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13518 An Investigation of the Determinants of Knowledge Management Systems Success in Banking Industry

Authors: Nantapanuwat Nattapol, Ractham Peter, Kaewkittipong Laddawan

Abstract:

The efficient knowledge management system (KMS) is one of the important strategies to help firms to achieve sustainable competitive advantages, but little research has been conducted to understand what contributes to the KMS success. This study thus set to investigate the determinants of KMS success in the context of Thai banking industry. A questionnaire survey was conducted in four major Thai Banks to test the proposed KMS Success model. The result of this study shows that KMS use and user satisfaction relate significantly to the success of KMS, and knowledge quality, service quality and trust lead to system use, and knowledge quality, system quality and trust lead to user satisfaction. However, this research focuses only on system and user-related factors. Future research thus can extend to study factors such as management support and organization readiness.

Keywords: Knowledge, Knowledge Management, Knowledge Management system, Knowledge Management System Success, Banking Industry, Thailand

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13517 Optimum Performance Measures of Interdependent Queuing System with Controllable Arrival Rates

Authors: S. S. Mishra

Abstract:

In this paper, an attempt is made to compute the total optimal cost of interdependent queuing system with controllable arrival rates as an important performance measure of the system. An example of application has also been presented to exhibit the use of the model. Finally, numerical demonstration based on a computing algorithm and variational effects of the model with the help of the graph have also been presented.

Keywords: Computing, Controllable arrival rate, Optimum performance measure.

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13516 Effect of Adaptation Gain on system Performance for Model Reference Adaptive Control Scheme using MIT Rule

Authors: Pankaj Swarnkar, Shailendra Jain, R.K Nema

Abstract:

Adaptive control involves modifying the control law used by the controller to cope with the fact that the parameters of the system being controlled change drastically due to change in environmental conditions or in system itself. This technique is based on the fundamental characteristic of adaptation of living organism. The adaptive control process is one that continuously and automatically measures the dynamic behavior of plant, compares it with the desired output and uses the difference to vary adjustable system parameters or to generate an actuating signal in such a way so that optimal performance can be maintained regardless of system changes. This paper deals with application of model reference adaptive control scheme in first order system. The rule which is used for this application is MIT rule. This paper also shows the effect of adaptation gain on the system performance. Simulation is done in MATLAB and results are discussed in detail.

Keywords: Adaptive control system, Adaptation gain, MIT rule, Model reference adaptive control.

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13515 Power Management Strategy for Solar-Wind-Diesel Stand-alone Hybrid Energy System

Authors: Md. Aminul Islam, Adel Merabet, Rachid Beguenane, Hussein Ibrahim

Abstract:

This paper presents a simulation and mathematical model of stand-alone solar-wind-diesel based hybrid energy system (HES). A power management system is designed for multiple energy resources in a stand-alone hybrid energy system. Both Solar photovoltaic and wind energy conversion system consists of maximum power point tracking (MPPT), voltage regulation, and basic power electronic interfaces. An additional diesel generator is included to support and improve the reliability of stand-alone system when renewable energy sources are not available. A power management strategy is introduced to distribute the generated power among resistive load banks. The frequency regulation is developed with conventional phase locked loop (PLL) system. The power management algorithm was applied in Matlab®/Simulink® to simulate the results.

Keywords: Solar photovoltaic, wind energy, diesel engine, hybrid energy system, power management, frequency and voltage regulation.

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13514 Development of an Automated Quality Management System to Control District Heating

Authors: Nigina Toktasynova, Sholpan Sagyndykova, Zhanat Kenzhebayeva, Maksat Kalimoldayev, Mariya Ishimova, Irbulat Utepbergenov

Abstract:

To solve these problems, we investigated the management system of heating enterprise, including strategic planning based on the balanced scorecard (BSC), quality management in accordance with the standards of the Quality Management System (QMS) ISO 9001 and analysis of the system based on expert judgment using fuzzy inference. To carry out our work we used the theory of fuzzy sets, the QMS in accordance with ISO 9001, BSC, method of construction of business processes according to the notation IDEF0, theory of modeling using Matlab software simulation tools and graphical programming LabVIEW. The results of the work are as follows: We determined possibilities of improving the management of heat-supply plant-based on QMS; after the justification and adaptation of software tool it has been used to automate a series of functions for the management and reduction of resources and for the maintenance of the system up to date; an application for the analysis of the QMS based on fuzzy inference has been created with novel organization of communication software with the application enabling the analysis of relevant data of enterprise management system. 

Keywords: Balanced scorecard, heat supply, quality management system, the theory of fuzzy sets.

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13513 Performance Analysis of List Scheduling in Heterogeneous Computing Systems

Authors: Keqin Li

Abstract:

Given a parallel program to be executed on a heterogeneous computing system, the overall execution time of the program is determined by a schedule. In this paper, we analyze the worst-case performance of the list scheduling algorithm for scheduling tasks of a parallel program in a mixed-machine heterogeneous computing system such that the total execution time of the program is minimized. We prove tight lower and upper bounds for the worst-case performance ratio of the list scheduling algorithm. We also examine the average-case performance of the list scheduling algorithm. Our experimental data reveal that the average-case performance of the list scheduling algorithm is much better than the worst-case performance and is very close to optimal, except for large systems with large heterogeneity. Thus, the list scheduling algorithm is very useful in real applications.

Keywords: Average-case performance, list scheduling algorithm, mixed-machine heterogeneous computing system, worst-case performance.

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13512 Energy-Efficient Sensing Concept for a Micromachined Yaw Rate Sensor

Authors: D. Oshinubi, M. Rocznik, K. Dostert

Abstract:

The need for micromechanical inertial sensors is increasing in future electronic stability control (ESC) and other positioning, navigation and guidance systems. Due to the rising density of sensors in automotive and consumer devices the goal is not only to get high performance, robustness and smaller package sizes, but also to optimize the energy management of the overall sensor system. This paper presents an evaluation concept for a surface micromachined yaw rate sensor. Within this evaluation concept an energy-efficient operation of the drive mode of the yaw rate sensor is enabled. The presented system concept can be realized within a power management subsystem.

Keywords: inertial sensors, micromachined gyros, gyro sensing concepts, power management, FPGA

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13511 Power System Contingency Analysis Using Multiagent Systems

Authors: Anant Oonsivilai, Kenedy A. Greyson

Abstract:

The demand of the energy management systems (EMS) set forth by modern power systems requires fast energy management systems. Contingency analysis is among the functions in EMS which is time consuming. In order to handle this limitation, this paper introduces agent based technology in the contingency analysis. The main function of agents is to speed up the performance. Negotiations process in decision making is explained and the issue set forth is the minimization of the operating costs. The IEEE 14 bus system and its line outage have been used in the research and simulation results are presented.

Keywords: Agents, model, negotiation, optimal dispatch, powersystems.

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13510 QoS Management in the Future Internet

Authors: S. Rao, S. Khavtasi, C. Chassot, N. Van Wambeke, F. Armando, S. P. Romano, T. Castaldi

Abstract:

The talks about technological convergence had been around for almost twenty years. Today Internet made it possible. And this is not only technical evolution. The way it changed our lives reflected in variety of applications, services and technologies used in day-to-day life. Such benefits imposed even more requirements on heterogeneous and unreliable IP networks. Current paper outlines QoS management system developed in the NetQoS [1] project. It describes an overall architecture of management system for heterogeneous networks and proposes automated multi-layer QoS management. Paper focuses on the structure of the most crucial modules of the system that enable autonomous and multi-layer provisioning and dynamic adaptation.

Keywords: Automated QoS management, multi-layerprovisioning and adaptation, QoS, QoE.

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13509 Development and Performance Analysis of Multifunctional City Smart Card System

Authors: Vedat Coskun, Fahri Soylemezgiller, Busra Ozdenizci, Kerem Ok

Abstract:

In recent years, several smart card solutions for transportation services of cities with different technical infrastructures and business models has emerged considerably, which triggers new business and technical opportunities. In order to create a unique system, we present a novel, promising system called Multifunctional City Smart Card System to be used in all cities that provides transportation and loyalty services based on the MasterCard M/Chip Advance standards. The proposed system provides a unique solution for transportation services of large cities over the world, aiming to answer all transportation needs of citizens. In this paper, development of the Multifunctional City Smart Card system and system requirements are briefly described. Moreover, performance analysis results of M/Chip Advance Compatible Validators which is the system's most important component are presented.

Keywords: Smart Card, M/Chip Advance Standard, City Transportation, Performance Analysis.

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13508 Information System Integration after Merger and Acquisition in the Banking Industry

Authors: Shang-Ping Lin, Shi-Hwa Lo, Ho-Li Yang

Abstract:

Company mergers and acquisitions reached their peak in the twenty-first century. Mergers and acquisitions have become one of the competitive strategies for external growth. In general, it is believed that mergers and acquisitions can create synergies. However, they require complete information technology system and service integration, especially in the banking industry. Much of the research has focused on performance evaluation, shareholder equity allocation, or even the increase of company market value after the merger and acquisition, whereas few scholars have focused on information system integration post merger and acquisition. This study indicates the role of information systems after a merger and acquisition, explaining the benefits of information system integration using a merger and acquisition case in the banking industry as an example. In addition, we discuss factors that affect the performance of information system integration, and utilize system dynamics to interpret the relationship among factors that affect information system integration performance in the banking industry after a merger and acquisition.

Keywords: Merger and Acquisition, Information SystemIntegration, System Dynamics

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13507 Comparative Exergy Analysis of Vapor Compression Refrigeration System Using Alternative Refrigerants

Authors: Gulshan Sachdeva, Vaibhav Jain

Abstract:

In present paper, the performance of various alternative refrigerants is compared to find the substitute of R22, the widely used hydrochlorofluorocarbon refrigerant in developing countries. These include the environmentally friendly hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants such as R134A, R410A, R407C and M20. In the present study, a steady state thermodynamic model (includes both first and second law analysis) which simulates the working of an actual vapor-compression system is developed. The model predicts the performance of system with alternative refrigerants. Considering the recent trends of replacement of ozone depleting refrigerants and improvement in system efficiency, R407C is found to be potential candidate to replace R22 refrigerant in the present study.

Keywords: Refrigeration, compression system, performance study, modeling, R407C.

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13506 The Data Mining usage in Production System Management

Authors: Pavel Vazan, Pavol Tanuska, Michal Kebisek

Abstract:

The paper gives the pilot results of the project that is oriented on the use of data mining techniques and knowledge discoveries from production systems through them. They have been used in the management of these systems. The simulation models of manufacturing systems have been developed to obtain the necessary data about production. The authors have developed the way of storing data obtained from the simulation models in the data warehouse. Data mining model has been created by using specific methods and selected techniques for defined problems of production system management. The new knowledge has been applied to production management system. Gained knowledge has been tested on simulation models of the production system. An important benefit of the project has been proposal of the new methodology. This methodology is focused on data mining from the databases that store operational data about the production process.

Keywords: data mining, data warehousing, management of production system, simulation

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13505 Validation of Building Maintenance Performance Model for Malaysian Universities

Authors: AbdulLateef A. Olanrewaju, Mohd F. Khamidi, Arazi Idrus

Abstract:

This paper is part of an ongoing research on the development of systemic maintenance management model Malaysian university buildings. In order to achieve this aim, there is a need to develop a performance model against which services are measure. Measuring performance is a significant part of maintenance management service delivery. Maintenance organization needs to know where they are in order to provide user-driven services and to enhance productivity. The aim of this paper is to formulate a template or model for university maintenance organization in Malaysia. The model is based on literature review and survey questionnaire and has been validated. Through grounded theory, this paper developed a 8 points matrix for the university maintenance organizations for measuring and improving their service delivery. The potential of the model is guide and assists towards providing value added service delivery through initiating maintenance according to user value system rather than on the condition of the building.

Keywords: Performance matrix, university buildings, users, maintenance organization

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13504 The Relationship between Knowledge Management Strategy and Information Technology Strategy

Authors: Hui-Ling Huang, Yue-Yang Chen, Ming-Chi Tsai, Cheng-Jiun Lee

Abstract:

Recently, a great number of theoretical frameworks have been proposed to develop the linkages between knowledge management (KM) and organizational strategies. However, while there has been much theorizing and case study in the area, validated research models integrating KM and information technology strategies for empirical testing of these theories have been scarce. In this research, we try to develop a research model for explaining the relationship between KM strategy and IT strategy and their effects on performance. Finally, meaningful propositions and conclusions are derived, and suggestions for future research are proposed and discussed.

Keywords: Knowledge management strategy, information technology strategy, knowledge management performance, information technology performance

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13503 Available Transmission Transfer Efficiency (ATTE) as an Index Measurement for Power Transmission Grid Performance

Authors: Ahmad Abubakar Sadiq, Mark N. Nwohu, Jacob Tsado, Ahmad A. Ashraf, Agbachi E. Okenna, Enesi E. Yahaya, Ambafi James Garba

Abstract:

Transmission system performance analysis is vital to proper planning and operations of power systems in the presence of deregulation. Key performance indicators (KPIs) are often used as measure of degree of performance. This paper gives a novel method to determine the transmission efficiency by evaluating the ratio of real power losses incurred from a specified transfer direction. Available Transmission Transfer Efficiency (ATTE) expresses the percentage of real power received resulting from inter-area available power transfer. The Tie line (Rated system path) performance is seen to differ from system wide (Network response) performance and ATTE values obtained are transfer direction specific. The required sending end quantities with specified receiving end ATC and the receiving end power circle diagram are obtained for the tie line analysis. The amount of real power loss load relative to the available transfer capability gives a measure of the transmission grid efficiency.

Keywords: Available transfer capability, efficiency performance, real power, transmission system.

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13502 Effectiveness of Lean Manufacturing Technologies on Improving Business Performance: A Study of Indian Manufacturing Industries

Authors: Saumyaranjan Sahoo, Sudhir Yadav

Abstract:

Indian manufacturing firms operating in rapidly changing and highly competitive market, over the last few decades, have embraced organization-wide transformation to achieve cultural and operational excellence. In recent years, numerous approaches have been proposed to improve business and manufacturing performance. Lean practices in particular, Total Productive Management (TPM) and Total Quality Management (TQM) have received considerable attention, as they being adopted and adapted for raising the performance standard of Indian manufacturing firms to world class levels. The complementary nature of TPM and TQM is being practiced in many companies to achieve synergy. Specifically, this research investigates whether joint TPM-TQM implementation contribute to higher business performance when compared to individual implementation. Data from 160 manufacturing firms were analyzed that demonstrate synergetic implementation of both TPM-TQM practices over a reasonable period of time, contributed in delivering better business performance as compared to individual implementation strategy.

Keywords: Total productive management, total quality management, Indian manufacturing firms, business performance.

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13501 An Efficient Key Management Scheme for Secure SCADA Communication

Authors: Sungjin Lee, Donghyun Choi, Choonsik Park, Seungjoo Kim

Abstract:

A SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition) system is an industrial control and monitoring system for national infrastructures. The SCADA systems were used in a closed environment without considering about security functionality in the past. As communication technology develops, they try to connect the SCADA systems to an open network. Therefore, the security of the SCADA systems has been an issue. The study of key management for SCADA system also has been performed. However, existing key management schemes for SCADA system such as SKE(Key establishment for SCADA systems) and SKMA(Key management scheme for SCADA systems) cannot support broadcasting communication. To solve this problem, an Advanced Key Management Architecture for Secure SCADA Communication has been proposed by Choi et al.. Choi et al.-s scheme also has a problem that it requires lots of computational cost for multicasting communication. In this paper, we propose an enhanced scheme which improving computational cost for multicasting communication with considering the number of keys to be stored in a low power communication device (RTU).

Keywords: SCADA system, SCADA communication, Key management, Distributed networks.

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13500 Materialized View Effect on Query Performance

Authors: Yusuf Ziya Ayık, Ferhat Kahveci

Abstract:

Currently, database management systems have various tools such as backup and maintenance, and also provide statistical information such as resource usage and security. In terms of query performance, this paper covers query optimization, views, indexed tables, pre-computation materialized view, query performance analysis in which query plan alternatives can be created and the least costly one selected to optimize a query. Indexes and views can be created for related table columns. The literature review of this study showed that, in the course of time, despite the growing capabilities of the database management system, only database administrators are aware of the need for dealing with archival and transactional data types differently. These data may be constantly changing data used in everyday life, and also may be from the completed questionnaire whose data input was completed. For both types of data, the database uses its capabilities; but as shown in the findings section, instead of repeating similar heavy calculations which are carrying out same results with the same query over a survey results, using materialized view results can be in a more simple way. In this study, this performance difference was observed quantitatively considering the cost of the query.

Keywords: Materialized view, pre-computation, query cost, query performance.

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13499 Exploratory Data Analysis of Passenger Movement on Delhi Urban Bus Route

Authors: Sourabh Jain, Sukhvir Singh Jain, Gaurav V. Jain

Abstract:

Intelligent Transportation System is an integrated application of communication, control and monitoring and display process technologies for developing a user–friendly transportation system for urban areas in developing countries. In fact, the development of a country and the progress of its transportation system are complementary to each other. Urban traffic has been growing vigorously due to population growth as well as escalation of vehicle ownership causing congestion, delays, pollution, accidents, high-energy consumption and low productivity of resources. The development and management of urban transport in developing countries like India however, is at tryout stage with very few accumulations. Under the umbrella of ITS, urban corridor management strategy have proven to be one of the most successful system in accomplishing these objectives. The present study interprets and figures out the performance of the 27.4 km long Urban Bus route having six intersections, five flyovers and 29 bus stops that covers significant area of the city by causality analysis. Performance interpretations incorporate Passenger Boarding and Alighting, Dwell time, Distance between Bus Stops and Total trip time taken by bus on selected urban route.

Keywords: Congestion, Dwell time, delay, passengers boarding alighting, travel time.

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13498 The Impact of Metacognitive Knowledge and Experience on Top Management Team Diversity and Small to Medium Enterprises Performance

Authors: Jo Rhodes, Peter Lok, Zahra Sadeghinejad

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to determine the impact of metacognition on top management team members and firm performance based on full team integration. A survey of 1500 small to medium enterprises (SMEs) was initiated and 140 firms were obtained in this study (with response rate of 9%). The result showed that different metacognitive abilities of managers [knowledge and experience] could enhance team decision-making and problem solving, resulting in greater firm performance. This is a significant finding for SMEs because these organisations have small teams with owner leadership and entrepreneurial orientation.

Keywords: Metacognition, behavioural integration, top management team, performance.

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13497 River Flow Prediction Using Nonlinear Prediction Method

Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

Abstract:

River flow prediction is an essential to ensure proper management of water resources can be optimally distribute water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method involving monthly river flow data in Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The phase space reconstruction involves the reconstruction of one-dimensional (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. Revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) have been employed to compare prediction performance for nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show the prediction results using nonlinear prediction method is better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the result of this study could be used to develop an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation water resources.

Keywords: River flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation.

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13496 A Mixed Approach to Assess Information System Risk, Operational Risk, and Congolese Microfinance Institutions Performance

Authors: Alfred Kamate Siviri, Angelus Mafikiri Tsongo, Jean Robert Kala Kamdjoug

Abstract:

Well organized digitalization and information systems have been selected as relevant measures to mitigate operational risks within organizations. Unfortunately, information system comes with new threats that can cause severe damage and quick organization lockout. This study aims to measure perceived information system risks and their effects on operational risks within the microfinance institution in D.R. Congo. Also, the factors influencing the operational risk are to be identified, and the link between operational risk with other risks and performance is to be assessed. The study proposes a research model drawn on the combination of Resources-Based-View, dynamic capabilities, the agency theory, the Information System Security Model, and social theories of risk. Therefore, we suggest adopting a mixed methods research with the sole aim of increasing the literature that already exists on perceived operational risk assessment and its link with other risk and performance, with a focus on information system risks.

Keywords: information system risk, operational risk, microfinance performance, DR Congo

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