Search results for: conditional volatility

Authors: Dany Ng Cheong Vee, Preethee Nunkoo Gonpot, Noor-Ul-Hacq Sookia

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the application of Extreme Value Theory as a risk measurement tool. The Value at Risk, for a set of indices, from six Stock Exchanges of Frontier markets is calculated using the Peaks over Threshold method and the performance of the model index-wise is evaluated using coverage tests and loss functions. Our results show that “fattailedness” alone of the data is not enough to justify the use of EVT as a VaR approach. The structure of the returns dynamics is also a determining factor. This approach works fine in markets which have had extremes occurring in the past thus making the model capable of coping with extremes coming up (Colombo, Tunisia and Zagreb Stock Exchanges). On the other hand, we find that indices with lower past than present volatility fail to adequately deal with future extremes (Mauritius and Kazakhstan). We also conclude that using EVT alone produces quite static VaR figures not reflecting the actual dynamics of the data.

Keywords: Extreme Value theory, Financial Crisis 2008, Frontier Markets, Value at Risk.

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Authors: Ichihan Tai, Bill Olson, Paul Blessner

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Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.

Keywords: Early Warning System, Knowledge Management, Topic Modeling, Market Prediction.

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Authors: Petr Teply

Abstract:

The New Basel Capital Accord (Basel II) influences how financial institutions around the world, and especially European Union institutions, determine the amount of capital to reserve. However, as the recent global crisis has shown, the revision of Basel II is needed to reflect current trends, such as increased volatility and correlation, in the world financial markets. The overall objective of Basel II is to increase the safety and soundness of the international financial system. Basel II builds on three main pillars: Pillar I deals with the minimum capital requirements for credit, market and operational risk, Pillar II focuses on the supervisory review process and finally Pillar III promotes market discipline through enhanced disclosure requirements for banks. The aim of this paper is to provide the historical background, key features and impact of Basel II on financial markets. Moreover, we discuss new proposals for international bank regulation (sometimes referred to as Basel III) which include requirements for higher quality, constituency and transparency of banks' capital and risk management, regulation of OTC markets and introduction of new liquidity standards for internationally active banks.

Keywords: Basel II, Basel III, risk management, bank regulation

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Authors: L. Mirtskhulava, M. Khunjgurua, N. Lomineishvili, K. Bakuria

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Software reliability prediction gives a great opportunity to measure the software failure rate at any point throughout system test. A software reliability prediction model provides with the technique for improving reliability. Software reliability is very important factor for estimating overall system reliability, which depends on the individual component reliabilities. It differs from hardware reliability in that it reflects the design perfection. Main reason of software reliability problems is high complexity of software. Various approaches can be used to improve the reliability of software. We focus on software reliability model in this article, assuming that there is a time redundancy, the value of which (the number of repeated transmission of basic blocks) can be an optimization parameter. We consider given mathematical model in the assumption that in the system may occur not only irreversible failures, but also a failure that can be taken as self-repairing failures that significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of information transfer. Main task of the given paper is to find a time distribution function (DF) of instructions sequence transmission, which consists of random number of basic blocks. We consider the system software unreliable; the time between adjacent failures has exponential distribution.

Keywords: Exponential distribution, conditional mean time to failure, distribution function, mathematical model, software reliability.

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Authors: Nnamdi I. Nwulu, Shola G. Oroja

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It has become crucial over the years for nations to improve their credit scoring methods and techniques in light of the increasing volatility of the global economy. Statistical methods or tools have been the favoured means for this; however artificial intelligence or soft computing based techniques are becoming increasingly preferred due to their proficient and precise nature and relative simplicity. This work presents a comparison between Support Vector Machines and Artificial Neural Networks two popular soft computing models when applied to credit scoring. Amidst the different criteria-s that can be used for comparisons; accuracy, computational complexity and processing times are the selected criteria used to evaluate both models. Furthermore the German credit scoring dataset which is a real world dataset is used to train and test both developed models. Experimental results obtained from our study suggest that although both soft computing models could be used with a high degree of accuracy, Artificial Neural Networks deliver better results than Support Vector Machines.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, Credit Scoring, SoftComputing Models, Support Vector Machines.

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Authors: Won-Hee Cho, GeunHyung Lee, Deok-Hwan Kim

Abstract:

The flash memory has many advantages such as low power consumption, strong shock resistance, fast I/O and non-volatility. And it is increasingly used in the mobile storage device. The YAFFS, one of the NAND flash file system, is widely used in the embedded device. However, the existing YAFFS takes long time to mount the file system because it scans whole spare areas in all pages of NAND flash memory. In order to solve this problem, we propose a new content-based flash file system using a mounting time reduction technique. The proposed method only scans partial spare areas of some special pages by using content-based block management. The experimental results show that the proposed method reduces the average mounting time by 87.2% comparing with JFFS2 and 69.9% comparing with YAFFS.

Keywords: NAND Flash Memory, Mounting Time, YAFFS, JFFS2, Content-based Block management

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Authors: Roopam Gaur, K. Chandramani Singh, Radhapiyari Laishram

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In order to produce lead free piezoceramics with optimum piezoelectric and dielectric properties, KNN modified with Li+ (as an A site dopant) and Sb5+ (as a B site dopant) (K0.49Na0.49Li0.02) (Nb0.96Sb0.04) O3 (referred as KNLNS in this paper) have been synthesized using solid state reaction method and conventional sintering technique. The ceramics were sintered in the narrow range of 1050°C-1090°C for 2-3 h to get precise information about sintering parameters. Detailed study of dependence of microstructural, dielectric and piezoelectric properties on sintering conditions was then carried out. The study suggests that the volatility of the highly hygroscopic KNN ceramics is not only sensitive to sintering temperatures but also to sintering durations. By merely reducing the sintering duration for a given sintering temperature we saw an increase in the density of the samples which was supported by the increase in dielectric constants of the ceramics. And since density directly or indirectly affects almost all the associated properties, other dielectric and piezoelectric properties were also enhanced as we approached towards the most suitable sintering temperature and duration combination. The detailed results are reported in this paper.

Keywords: Piezoceramics, Conventional Sintering, KNN, Lead Free.

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Authors: N. Hatraf, L. Merabeti, Z. Neffeh, W. Taane

Abstract:

The excessive consumption of fossil energies (electrical energy) during summer caused by the technological development involves more and more climate warming.

In order to reduce the worst impact of gas emissions produced from classical air conditioning, heat driven solar absorption chiller is pretty promising; it consists on using solar as motive energy which is clean and environmentally friendly to provide cold.

Solar absorption machine is composed by four components using Lithium Bromide /water as a refrigerating couple. LiBr- water is the most promising in chiller applications due to high safety, high volatility ratio, high affinity, high stability and its high latent heat. The lithium bromide solution is constitute by the salt lithium bromide which absorbs water under certain conditions of pressure and temperature however if the concentration of the solution is high in the absorption chillers; which exceed 70%, the solution will crystallize.

The main aim of this article is to study the phenomena of the crystallization and to evaluate how the dependence between the electric conductivity and the concentration which should be controlled.

Keywords: Absorption chillers, crystallization, experimental results, Lithium Bromide solution.

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Authors: Min Min Swe Zin

Abstract:

This paper introduces the foundations of Bayesian probability theory and Bayesian decision method. The main goal of Bayesian decision theory is to minimize the expected loss of a decision or minimize the expected risk. The purposes of this study are to review the decision process on the issue of flood occurrences and to suggest possible process for decision improvement. This study examines the problem structure of flood occurrences and theoretically explicates the decision-analytic approach based on Bayesian decision theory and application to flood occurrences in Environmental Engineering. In this study, we will discuss about the flood occurrences upon an annual maximum water level in cm, 43-year record available from 1965 to 2007 at the gauging station of Sagaing on the Ayeyarwady River with the drainage area - 120193 sq km by using Bayesian decision method. As a result, we will discuss the loss and risk of vast areas of agricultural land whether which will be inundated or not in the coming year based on the two standard maximum water levels during 43 years. And also we forecast about that lands will be safe from flood water during the next 10 years.

Keywords: Bayesian decision method, conditional binomial distribution, minimax rules, prior beta distribution.

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Authors: K. Jabeur, L. D. Buda-Prejbeanu, G. Prenat, G. Di Pendina

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MRAM technology provides a combination of fast access time, non-volatility, data retention and endurance. While a growing interest is given to two-terminal Magnetic Tunnel Junctions (MTJ) based on Spin-Transfer Torque (STT) switching as the potential candidate for a universal memory, its reliability is dramatically decreased because of the common writing/reading path. Three-terminal MTJ based on Spin-Orbit Torque (SOT) approach revitalizes the hope of an ideal MRAM. It can overcome the reliability barrier encountered in current two-terminal MTJs by separating the reading and the writing path. In this paper, we study two possible writing schemes for the SOT-MTJ device based on recently fabricated samples. While the first is based on precessional switching, the second requires the presence of permanent magnetic field. Based on an accurate Verilog-A model, we simulate the two writing techniques and we highlight advantages and drawbacks of each one. Using the second technique, pioneering logic circuits based on the three-terminal architecture of the SOT-MTJ described in this work are under development with preliminary attractive results.

Keywords: Spin orbit Torque, Magnetic Tunnel Junction, MRAM, Spintronic, Circuit simulation.

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Authors: Edikan E. Akpanibah, Ogunmodimu Dupe Catherine

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The relevance of geometric Brownian motion (GBM) in modelling the behaviour of stock market prices (SMP) cannot be over emphasized taking into consideration the volatility of the SMP. Consequently, there is need to investigate how GBM models are being estimated and used in financial market to predict SMP. To achieve this, the GBM estimation and its application to the SMP of some selected companies are studied. The normal and log-normal distributions were used to determine the expected value, variance and co-variance. Furthermore, the GBM model was used to predict the SMP of some selected companies over a period of time and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were calculated and used to determine the accuracy of the GBM model in predicting the SMP of the four companies under consideration. It was observed that for all the four companies, their MAPE values were within the region of acceptance. Also, the MAPE values of our data were compared to an existing literature to test the accuracy of our prediction with respect to time of investment. Finally, some numerical simulations of the graphs of the SMP, expectations and variance of the four companies over a period of time were presented using MATLAB programming software.

Keywords: Stock Market, Geometric Brownian Motion, normal and log-normal distribution, mean absolute percentage error.

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Authors: Elijah Acquah-Andoh

Abstract:

The UK has had its fair share of the shale gas revolutionary waves blowing across the global oil and gas industry at present. Although, its exploitation is widely agreed to have been delayed, shale gas was looked upon favorably by the UK Parliament when they recognized it as genuine energy source and granted licenses to industry to search and extract the resource. This, although a significant progress by industry, there yet remains another test the UK fracking resource must pass in order to render shale gas extraction feasible – it must be economically extractible and sustainably so. Developing unconventional resources is much more expensive and risky, and for shale gas wells, producing in commercial volumes is conditional upon drilling horizontal wells and hydraulic fracturing, techniques which increase CAPEX. Meanwhile, investment in shale gas development projects is sensitive to gas price and technical and geological risks. Using a Two-Factor Model, the economics of the Bowland shale wells were analyzed and the operational conditions under which fracking is profitable in the UK was characterized. We find that there is a great degree of flexibility about Opex spending; hence Opex does not pose much threat to the fracking industry in the UK. However, we discover Bowland shale gas wells fail to add value at gas price of $8/ Mmbtu. A minimum gas price of $12/Mmbtu at Opex of no more than $2/ Mcf and no more than $14.95M Capex are required to create value within the present petroleum tax regime, in the UK fracking industry.

Keywords: Capex, economical, investment, profitability, shale gas development, sustainable.

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Authors: Edlira Donefski, Lorenc Ekonomi, Tina Donefski

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Edgeworth approximation is one of the most important statistical methods that has a considered contribution in the reduction of the sum of standard deviation of the independent variables’ coefficients in a Quantile Regression Model. This model estimates the conditional median or other quantiles. In this paper, we have applied approximating statistical methods in an economical problem. We have created and generated a quantile regression model to see how the profit gained is connected with the realized sales of the cosmetic products in a real data, taken from a local business. The Linear Regression of the generated profit and the realized sales was not free of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity, so this is the reason that we have used this model instead of Linear Regression. Our aim is to analyze in more details the relation between the variables taken into study: the profit and the finalized sales and how to minimize the standard errors of the independent variable involved in this study, the level of realized sales. The statistical methods that we have applied in our work are Edgeworth Approximation for Independent and Identical distributed (IID) cases, Bootstrap version of the Model and the Edgeworth approximation for Bootstrap Quantile Regression Model. The graphics and the results that we have presented here identify the best approximating model of our study.

Keywords: Bootstrap, Edgeworth approximation, independent and Identical distributed, quantile.

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Authors: Minsoo Lee, Yun-mi Kim, Yoon-kyung Lee

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XML data consists of a very flexible tree-structure which makes it difficult to support the storing and retrieving of XML data. The node numbering scheme is one of the most popular approaches to store XML in relational databases. Together with the node numbering storage scheme, structural joins can be used to efficiently process the hierarchical relationships in XML. However, in order to process a tree-structured XPath query containing several hierarchical relationships and conditional sentences on XML data, many structural joins need to be carried out, which results in a high query execution cost. This paper introduces mechanisms to reduce the XPath queries including branch nodes into a much more efficient form with less numbers of structural joins. A two step approach is proposed. The first step merges duplicate nodes in the tree-structured query and the second step divides the query into sub-queries, shortens the paths and then merges the sub-queries back together. The proposed approach can highly contribute to the efficient execution of XML queries. Experimental results show that the proposed scheme can reduce the query execution cost by up to an order of magnitude of the original execution cost.

Keywords: XML, Xpath, tree-structured query, query reduction.

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Authors: Markus Kaiser, Johannes Buchmann

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In this paper we explore the application of a formal proof system to verification problems in cryptography. Cryptographic properties concerning correctness or security of some cryptographic algorithms are of great interest. Beside some basic lemmata, we explore an implementation of a complex function that is used in cryptography. More precisely, we describe formal properties of this implementation that we computer prove. We describe formalized probability distributions (o--algebras, probability spaces and condi¬tional probabilities). These are given in the formal language of the formal proof system Isabelle/HOL. Moreover, we computer prove Bayes' Formula. Besides we describe an application of the presented formalized probability distributions to cryptography. Furthermore, this paper shows that computer proofs of complex cryptographic functions are possible by presenting an implementation of the Miller- Rabin primality test that admits formal verification. Our achievements are a step towards computer verification of cryptographic primitives. They describe a basis for computer verification in cryptography. Computer verification can be applied to further problems in crypto-graphic research, if the corresponding basic mathematical knowledge is available in a database.

Keywords: prime numbers, primality tests, (conditional) proba¬bility distributions, formal proof system, higher-order logic, formal verification, Bayes' Formula, Miller-Rabin primality test.

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Authors: Dewan Md. Farid, Nouria Harbi, Suman Ahmmed, Md. Zahidur Rahman, Chowdhury Mofizur Rahman

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Network security attacks are the violation of information security policy that received much attention to the computational intelligence society in the last decades. Data mining has become a very useful technique for detecting network intrusions by extracting useful knowledge from large number of network data or logs. Naïve Bayesian classifier is one of the most popular data mining algorithm for classification, which provides an optimal way to predict the class of an unknown example. It has been tested that one set of probability derived from data is not good enough to have good classification rate. In this paper, we proposed a new learning algorithm for mining network logs to detect network intrusions through naïve Bayesian classifier, which first clusters the network logs into several groups based on similarity of logs, and then calculates the prior and conditional probabilities for each group of logs. For classifying a new log, the algorithm checks in which cluster the log belongs and then use that cluster-s probability set to classify the new log. We tested the performance of our proposed algorithm by employing KDD99 benchmark network intrusion detection dataset, and the experimental results proved that it improves detection rates as well as reduces false positives for different types of network intrusions.

Keywords: Clustering, detection rate, false positive, naïveBayesian classifier, network intrusion detection.

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Authors: Saeedeh Shafiee Nahrkhalaji

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Metacognitive knowledge increases EFL students’ ability to be successful learners. Although this relationship has been investigated by a number of scholars, EFL teachers’ explicit awareness of their cognitive knowledge has not been sufficiently explored. The aim of this study was to examine the role of EFL teachers’ metacognitive knowledge in their pedagogical performance. Furthermore, the role played by years of their academic education and teaching experience was also studied. Fifty female EFL teachers were selected. They completed Metacognitive Awareness Inventory (MAI) that assessed six components of metacognition including procedural knowledge, declarative knowledge, conditional knowledge, planning, evaluating, and management strategies. Near the end of the academic semester, the students of each class filled in ‘the Language Teacher Characteristics Questionnaire’ to evaluate their teachers’ pedagogical performance. Four elements of MAI, declarative knowledge, planning, evaluating, and management strategies were found to be significantly correlated with EFL teachers’ pedagogical success. Significant correlation was also established between metacognitive knowledge and EFL teachers’ years of academic education and teaching experience. The findings obtained from this research have contributing implication for EFL teacher educators. The discussion concludes by setting out directions for future research.

Keywords: Metacognotive Knowledge, Pedagogical Performance, Language Teacher Characteristics Questionnaire, Metacognitive Awareness Inventory.

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Authors: Y. Sunecher, N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

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This paper considers the modelling of a non-stationary bivariate integer-valued autoregressive moving average of order one (BINARMA(1,1)) with correlated Poisson innovations. The BINARMA(1,1) model is specified using the binomial thinning operator and by assuming that the cross-correlation between the two series is induced by the innovation terms only. Based on these assumptions, the non-stationary marginal and joint moments of the BINARMA(1,1) are derived iteratively by using some initial stationary moments. As regards to the estimation of parameters of the proposed model, the conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation method is derived based on thinning and convolution properties. The forecasting equations of the BINARMA(1,1) model are also derived. A simulation study is also proposed where BINARMA(1,1) count data are generated using a multivariate Poisson R code for the innovation terms. The performance of the BINARMA(1,1) model is then assessed through a simulation experiment and the mean estimates of the model parameters obtained are all efficient, based on their standard errors. The proposed model is then used to analyse a real-life accident data on the motorway in Mauritius, based on some covariates: policemen, daily patrol, speed cameras, traffic lights and roundabouts. The BINARMA(1,1) model is applied on the accident data and the CML estimates clearly indicate a significant impact of the covariates on the number of accidents on the motorway in Mauritius. The forecasting equations also provide reliable one-step ahead forecasts.

Keywords: Non-stationary, BINARMA(1, 1) model, Poisson Innovations, CML

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Authors: Alhaji M. H. Conteh, Xiangbin Yan, Alfred V. Gborie

Abstract:

The goal of this study was to increase the awareness of the description and assessments of rice acreage response and to offer mechanisms for agricultural policy scrutiny. The ordinary least square (OLS) technique was utilized to determine the coefficients of acreage response models for the rice varieties. The magnitudes of the coefficients (λ) of both the ROK lagged and NERICA lagged acreages were found positive and highly significant, which indicates that farmers’ adjustment rate was very low. Regarding lagged actual price for both the ROK and NERICE rice varieties, the short-run price elasticitieswere lower than long-run, which is suggesting a long term adjustment of the acreage under the crop.

However, the apparent recommendations for policy transformation are to open farm gate prices and to decrease government’s involvement in agricultural sector especially in the acquisition of agricultural inputs. Impending research have to be centered on how this might be better realized. Necessary conditions should be made available to the private sector by means of minimizing price volatility. In accordance with structural reforms, it is necessary to convey output prices to farmers with minimum distortion. There is need to eradicate price subsidies and control, which generate distortion in the market in addition to huge financial costs.

Keywords: Acreage response, rate of adjustment, rice varieties, Sierra Leone.

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Authors: Ayat Bani Rashaid, Zain Khasawneh, Mazin Alqhazo, Shreen Nusair, Mohammad El-Khateeb, Mahmoud Bashtawi

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Autism Spectrum disorder (ASD) is a psychiatric disorder with unknown etiology that mainly affects children in the first three years of life. Alterations of amino acid levels are believed to contribute to ASD. The levels of six essential amino acids (methionine, histidine, valine, leucine, threonine, and phenylalanine), five conditional amino acids (proline, tyrosine, glutamine, cysteine, and cystine), and five non-essential amino acids (asparagine, aspartic acid, alanine, serine, and glutamic acid) in hair samples of children with ASD (n = 25) were analyzed and compared to corresponding levels in healthy age-matched controls (n = 25). The results showed that the levels of methionine, alanine, and asparagine were significantly lower in the hair samples of ASD group compared to those of the control group (p ≤ 0.05). However, the levels of glutamic acid were significantly higher in the ASD group than the control group (p ≤ 0.05). The current findings could contribute towards further understanding of ASD etiology and provide specialists with a hair amino acid profile utilized as a biomarker for early diagnosis of ASD. Such biomarkers could participate in future developments of therapies that reduce ASD-related symptoms.

Keywords: Autism spectrum disorder, amino acids, liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, human hair.

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Authors: Hsing-Kuo Pao, John Case

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Biological sequences from different species are called or-thologs if they evolved from a sequence of a common ancestor species and they have the same biological function. Approximations of Kolmogorov complexity or entropy of biological sequences are already well known to be useful in extracting similarity information between such sequences -in the interest, for example, of ortholog detection. As is well known, the exact Kolmogorov complexity is not algorithmically computable. In prac-tice one can approximate it by computable compression methods. How-ever, such compression methods do not provide a good approximation to Kolmogorov complexity for short sequences. Herein is suggested a new ap-proach to overcome the problem that compression approximations may notwork well on short sequences. This approach is inspired by new, conditional computations of Kolmogorov entropy. A main contribution of the empir-ical work described shows the new set of entropy-based machine learning attributes provides good separation between positive (ortholog) and nega-tive (non-ortholog) data - better than with good, previously known alter-natives (which do not employ some means to handle short sequences well).Also empirically compared are the new entropy based attribute set and a number of other, more standard similarity attributes sets commonly used in genomic analysis. The various similarity attributes are evaluated by cross validation, through boosted decision tree induction C5.0, and by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The results point to the conclu-sion: the new, entropy based attribute set by itself is not the one giving the best prediction; however, it is the best attribute set for use in improving the other, standard attribute sets when conjoined with them.

Keywords: compression, decision tree, entropy, ortholog, ROC.

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Authors: Sadaf Khalid, Fahim Arif

Abstract:

Wide applicability of concurrent programming practices in developing various software applications leads to different concurrency errors amongst which data race is the most important. Java provides greatest support for concurrent programming by introducing various concurrency packages. Aspect oriented programming (AOP) is modern programming paradigm facilitating the runtime interception of events of interest and can be effectively used to handle the concurrency problems. AspectJ being an aspect oriented extension to java facilitates the application of concepts of AOP for data race detection. Volatile variables are usually considered thread safe, but they can become the possible candidates of data races if non-atomic operations are performed concurrently upon them. Various data race detection algorithms have been proposed in the past but this issue of volatility and atomicity is still unaddressed. The aim of this research is to propose some suggestions for incorporating certain conditions for data race detection in java programs at the volatile fields by taking into account support for atomicity in java concurrency packages and making use of pointcuts. Two simple test programs will demonstrate the results of research. The results are verified on two different Java Development Kits (JDKs) for the purpose of comparison.

Keywords: Aspect Bench Compiler (abc), Aspect OrientedProgramming (AOP), AspectJ, Aspects, Concurrency packages, Concurrent programming, Cross-cutting Concerns, Data race, Eclipse, Java, Java Development Kits (JDKs), Pointcuts

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Authors: Kamal K. Bharadwaj, Basheer M. Al-Maqaleh

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In the recent past, there has been an increasing interest in applying evolutionary methods to Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD) and a number of successful applications of Genetic Algorithms (GA) and Genetic Programming (GP) to KDD have been demonstrated. The most predominant representation of the discovered knowledge is the standard Production Rules (PRs) in the form If P Then D. The PRs, however, are unable to handle exceptions and do not exhibit variable precision. The Censored Production Rules (CPRs), an extension of PRs, were proposed by Michalski & Winston that exhibit variable precision and supports an efficient mechanism for handling exceptions. A CPR is an augmented production rule of the form: If P Then D Unless C, where C (Censor) is an exception to the rule. Such rules are employed in situations, in which the conditional statement 'If P Then D' holds frequently and the assertion C holds rarely. By using a rule of this type we are free to ignore the exception conditions, when the resources needed to establish its presence are tight or there is simply no information available as to whether it holds or not. Thus, the 'If P Then D' part of the CPR expresses important information, while the Unless C part acts only as a switch and changes the polarity of D to ~D. This paper presents a classification algorithm based on evolutionary approach that discovers comprehensible rules with exceptions in the form of CPRs. The proposed approach has flexible chromosome encoding, where each chromosome corresponds to a CPR. Appropriate genetic operators are suggested and a fitness function is proposed that incorporates the basic constraints on CPRs. Experimental results are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Censored Production Rule, Data Mining, MachineLearning, Evolutionary Algorithms.

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Authors: Pornchai Suriya-Amrit, Suratsawadee Kungsanant, Boonyarach Kitiyanan

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There has been a growing interest in utilizing surfactants in remediation processes to separate the hydrophobic volatile organic compounds (HVOCs) from aqueous solution. One attractive process is cloud point extraction (CPE), which utilizes nonionic surfactants as a separating agent. Since the surfactant cost is a key determination of the economic viability of the process, it is important that the surfactants are recycled and reused. This work aims to study the performance of the co-current vacuum stripping using a packed column for HVOCs removal from contaminated surfactant solution. Six types HVOCs are selected as contaminants. The studied surfactant is the branched secondary alcohol ethoxylates (AEs), Tergitol TMN-6 (C14H30O2). The volatility and the solubility of HVOCs in surfactant system are determined in terms of an apparent Henry’s law constant and a solubilization constant, respectively. Moreover, the HVOCs removal efficiency of vacuum stripping column is assessed in terms of percentage of HVOCs removal and the overall liquid phase volumetric mass transfer coefficient. The apparent Henry’s law constant of benzenz , toluene, and ethyl benzene were 7.00×10-5, 5.38×10-5, 3.35× 10-5 respectively. The solubilization constant of benzene, toluene, and ethyl benzene were 1.71, 2.68, 7.54 respectively. The HVOCs removal for all solute were around 90 percent.

Keywords: Apparent Henry’s law constant, Branched secondary alcohol ethoxylates, Vacuum Stripping.

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Authors: Velmurugan. A, Loganathan. M

Abstract:

The increased number of automobiles in recent years has resulted in great demand for fossil fuel. This has led to the development of automobile by using alternative fuels which include gaseous fuels, biofuels and vegetables oils as fuel. Energy from biomass and more specific bio-diesel is one of the opportunities that could cover the future demand of fossil fuel shortage. Biomass in the form of cashew nut shell represents a new energy source and abundant source of energy in India. The bio-fuel is derived from cashew nut shell oil and its blend with diesel are promising alternative fuel for diesel engine. In this work the pyrolysis Cashew Nut Shell Liquid (CNSL)-Diesel Blends (CDB) was used to run the Direct Injection (DI) diesel engine. The experiments were conducted with various blends of CNSL and Diesel namely B20, B40, B60, B80 and B100. The results are compared with neat diesel operation. The brake thermal efficiency was decreased for blends of CNSL and Diesel except the lower blends of B20. The brake thermal efficiency of B20 is nearly closer to that of diesel fuel. Also the emission level of the all CNSL and Diesel blends was increased compared to neat diesel. The higher viscosity and lower volatility of CNSL leads to poor mixture formation and hence lower brake thermal efficiency and higher emission levels. The higher emission level can be reduced by adding suitable additives and oxygenates with CNSL and Diesel blends.

Keywords: Bio-oil, Biodiesel, Cardanol, Cashew nut shell liquid (CNSL)

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Authors: Ghulam Murshid

Abstract:

Carbon dioxide is one of the major greenhouse gas (GHG) contributors. It is an obligation of the industry to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide emission to the acceptable limits. Tremendous research and studies are reported in the past and still the quest to find the suitable and economical solution of this problem needed to be explored in order to develop the most plausible absorber for carbon dioxide removal. Amino acids can be potential alternate solvents for carbon dioxide capture from gaseous streams. This is due to its ability to resist oxidative degradation, low volatility and its ionic structure. In addition, the introduction of promoter-like piperazine to amino acid helps to further enhance the solubility. In this work, the effect of piperazine on thermo physical properties and solubility of β-Alanine aqueous solutions were studied for various concentrations. The measured physicochemical properties data was correlated as a function of temperature using least-squares method and the correlation parameters are reported together with it respective standard deviations. The effect of activator piperazine on the CO2 loading performance of selected amino acid under high-pressure conditions (1bar to 10bar) at temperature range of (30 to 60)oC was also studied. Solubility of CO2 decreases with increasing temperature and increases with increasing pressure. Quadratic representation of solubility using Response Surface Methodology (RSM) shows that the most important parameter to optimize solubility is system pressure. The addition of promoter increases the solubility effect of the solvent.

Keywords: Amino acids, CO2, Global warming, Solubility.

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

Abstract:

Electricity prices have sophisticated features such as high volatility, nonlinearity and high frequency that make forecasting quite difficult. Electricity price has a volatile and non-random character so that, it is possible to identify the patterns based on the historical data. Intelligent decision-making requires accurate price forecasting for market traders, retailers, and generation companies. So far, many shallow-ANN (artificial neural networks) models have been published in the literature and showed adequate forecasting results. During the last years, neural networks with many hidden layers, which are referred to as DNN (deep neural networks) have been using in the machine learning community. The goal of this study is to investigate electricity price forecasting performance of the shallow-ANN and DNN models for the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. The forecasting accuracy of the models has been evaluated with publicly available data from the Turkish day-ahead electricity market. Both shallow-ANN and DNN approach would give successful result in forecasting problems. Historical load, price and weather temperature data are used as the input variables for the models. The data set includes power consumption measurements gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. In this regard, forecasting studies have been carried out comparatively with shallow-ANN and DNN models for Turkish electricity markets in the related time period. The main contribution of this study is the investigation of different shallow-ANN and DNN models in the field of electricity price forecast. All models are compared regarding their MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Square) results. DNN models give better forecasting performance compare to shallow-ANN. Best five MAE results for DNN models are 0.346, 0.372, 0.392, 0,402 and 0.409.

Keywords: Deep learning, artificial neural networks, energy price forecasting, Turkey.

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Authors: Promise A. Azor, Avievie Igodo, Esabai M. Ase

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The paper merged the return of premium clause and voluntary contributions to investigate retirees’ investment plan in a defined contributory (DC) pension scheme with a portfolio comprising of a risk-free asset and a risky asset whose price process is described by geometric Brownian motion (GBM). The paper considers additional voluntary contributions paid by members, charge on balance by pension fund administrators and the mortality risk of members of the scheme during the accumulation period by introducing return of premium clause. To achieve this, the Weilbull mortality force function is used to establish the mortality rate of members during accumulation phase. Furthermore, an optimization problem from the Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) equation is obtained using dynamic programming approach. Also, the Legendre transformation method is used to transform the HJB equation which is a nonlinear partial differential equation to a linear partial differential equation and solves the resultant equation for the value function and the optimal distribution plan under logarithm utility function. Finally, numerical simulations of the impact of some important parameters on the optimal distribution plan were obtained and it was observed that the optimal distribution plan is inversely proportional to the initial fund size, predetermined interest rate, additional voluntary contributions, charge on balance and instantaneous volatility.

Keywords: Legendre transform, logarithm utility, optimal distribution plan, return clause of premium, charge on balance, Weibull mortality function.

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Authors: Mohammad Hassanzadeh

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As far as incidental vocabulary learning is concerned, the basic contention of the Involvement Load Hypothesis (ILH) is that retention of unfamiliar words is, generally, conditional upon the degree of involvement in processing them. This study examined input modality and incidental vocabulary uptake in a task-induced setting whereby three variously loaded task types (marginal glosses, fill-in-task, and sentence-writing) were alternately assigned to one group of students at Allameh Tabataba’i University (n=2l) during six classroom sessions. While one round of exposure was comprised of the audiovisual medium (TV talk shows), the second round consisted of textual materials with approximately similar subject matter (reading texts). In both conditions, however, the tasks were equivalent to one another. Taken together, the study pursued the dual objectives of establishing a litmus test for the ILH and its proposed values of ‘need’, ‘search’ and ‘evaluation’ in the first place. Secondly, it sought to bring to light the superiority issue of exposure to audiovisual input versus the written input as far as the incorporation of tasks is concerned. At the end of each treatment session, a vocabulary active recall test was administered to measure their incidental gains. Running a one-way analysis of variance revealed that the audiovisual intervention yielded higher gains than the written version even when differing tasks were included. Meanwhile, task 'three' (sentence-writing) turned out the most efficient in tapping learners' active recall of the target vocabulary items. In addition to shedding light on the superiority of audiovisual input over the written input when circumstances are relatively held constant, this study for the most part, did support the underlying tenets of ILH.

Keywords: Evaluation, incidental vocabulary learning, input mode, involvement load hypothesis, need, search.

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Authors: Rekha Kandwal, Kamal K.Bharadwaj

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Knowledge is indispensable but voluminous knowledge becomes a bottleneck for efficient processing. A great challenge for data mining activity is the generation of large number of potential rules as a result of mining process. In fact sometimes result size is comparable to the original data. Traditional data mining pruning activities such as support do not sufficiently reduce the huge rule space. Moreover, many practical applications are characterized by continual change of data and knowledge, thereby making knowledge voluminous with each change. The most predominant representation of the discovered knowledge is the standard Production Rules (PRs) in the form If P Then D. Michalski & Winston proposed Censored Production Rules (CPRs), as an extension of production rules, that exhibit variable precision and supports an efficient mechanism for handling exceptions. A CPR is an augmented production rule of the form: If P Then D Unless C, where C (Censor) is an exception to the rule. Such rules are employed in situations in which the conditional statement 'If P Then D' holds frequently and the assertion C holds rarely. By using a rule of this type we are free to ignore the exception conditions, when the resources needed to establish its presence, are tight or there is simply no information available as to whether it holds or not. Thus the 'If P Then D' part of the CPR expresses important information while the Unless C part acts only as a switch changes the polarity of D to ~D. In this paper a scheme based on Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) interpretation of a CPR is suggested for discovering CPRs from the discovered flat PRs. The discovery of CPRs from flat rules would result in considerable reduction of the already discovered rules. The proposed scheme incrementally incorporates new knowledge and also reduces the size of knowledge base considerably with each episode. Examples are given to demonstrate the behaviour of the proposed scheme. The suggested cumulative learning scheme would be useful in mining data streams.

Keywords: Censored production rules, cumulative learning, data mining, machine learning.

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