Search results for: Zhang Ping
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 498

Search results for: Zhang Ping

408 Computational Study of Improving the Efficiency of Photovoltaic Panels in the UAE

Authors: Ben Richard Hughes, Ng Ping Sze Cherisa, Osman Beg

Abstract:

Various solar energy technologies exist and they have different application techniques in the generation of electrical power. The widespread use of photovoltaic (PV) modules in such technologies has been limited by relatively high costs and low efficiencies. The efficiency of PV panels decreases as the operating temperatures increase. This is due to the affect of solar intensity and ambient temperature. In this work, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) was used to model the heat transfer from a standard PV panel and thus determine the rate of dissipation of heat. To accurately model the specific climatic conditions of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a case study of a new build green building in Dubai was used. A finned heat pipe arrangement is proposed and analyzed to determine the improved heat dissipation and thus improved performance efficiency of the PV panel. A prototype of the arrangement is built for experimental testing to validate the CFD modeling and proof of concept.

Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics, Improving Efficiency, Photovoltaic (PV) Panels, Heat-pipe

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407 An Iterative Method for Quaternionic Linear Equations

Authors: Bin Yu, Minghui Wang, Juntao Zhang

Abstract:

By the real representation of the quaternionic matrix, an iterative method for quaternionic linear equations Ax = b is proposed. Then the convergence conditions are obtained. At last, a numerical example is given to illustrate the efficiency of this method.

Keywords: Quaternionic linear equations, Real representation, Iterative algorithm.

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406 Next Generation IP Address Transition Mechanism for Web Application System

Authors: Mohd. Khairil Sailan, Rosilah Hassan, Zuhaizal Zulkifli

Abstract:

Internet Protocol version 4 (IPv4) address is decreasing and a rapid transition method to the next generation IP address (IPv6) should be established. This study aims to evaluate and select the best performance of the IPv6 address network transitionmechanisms, such as IPv4/IPv6 dual stack, transport Relay Translation (TRT) and Reverse Proxy with additional features. It is also aim to prove that faster access can be done while ensuring optimal usage of available resources used during the test and actual implementation. This study used two test methods such asInternet Control Message Protocol (ICMP)ping and ApacheBenchmark (AB) methodsto evaluate the performance.Performance metrics for this study include aspects ofaverageaccessin one second,time takenfor singleaccess,thedata transfer speed and the costof additional requirements.Reverse Proxy with Caching featureis the most efficientmechanism because of it simpler configurationandthe best performerfrom the test conducted.

Keywords: IPv4, IPv6, network transition, apache benchmark andreverse proxy

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405 Ultrasound Assisted Method to Increase the Aluminum Dissolve Rate from Acidified Water

Authors: Wen Po Cheng, Chi Hua Fu, Ping Hung Chen, Ruey Fang Yu

Abstract:

Aluminum salt that is generally presents as a solid phase in the water purification sludge (WPS) can be dissolved, recovering a liquid phase, by adding strong acid to the sludge solution. According to the reaction kinetics, when reactant is in the form of small particles with a large specific surface area, or when the reaction temperature is high, the quantity of dissolved aluminum salt or reaction rate, respectively are high. Therefore, in this investigation, water purification sludge (WPS) solution was treated with ultrasonic waves to break down the sludge, and different acids (1 N HCl and 1 N H2SO4) were used to acidify it. Acid dosages that yielded the solution pH of less than two were used. The results thus obtained indicate that the quantity of dissolved aluminum in H2SO4-acidified solution exceeded that in HCl-acidified solution. Additionally, ultrasonic treatment increased the rate of dissolution of aluminum and the amount dissolved. The quantity of aluminum dissolved at 60℃ was 1.5 to 2.0 times higher than that at 25℃.

Keywords: Coagulant, Aluminum, Ultrasonic, Acidification, Temperature, Sludge.

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404 A Straightforward Approach for Determining the Weights of Decision Makers Based on Angle Cosine and Projection Method

Authors: Qiang Yang, Ping-An Du

Abstract:

Group decision making with multiple attribute has attracted intensive concern in the decision analysis area. This paper assumes that the contributions of all the decision makers (DMs) are not equal to the decision process based on different knowledge and experience in group setting. The aim of this paper is to develop a novel approach to determine weights of DMs in the group decision making problems. In this paper, the weights of DMs are determined in the group decision environment via angle cosine and projection method. First of all, the average decision of all individual decisions is defined as the ideal decision. After that, we define the weight of each decision maker (DM) by aggregating the angle cosine and projection between individual decision and ideal decision with associated direction indicator μ. By using the weights of DMs, all individual decisions are aggregated into a collective decision. Further, the preference order of alternatives is ranked in accordance with the overall row value of collective decision. Finally, an example in a chemical company is provided to illustrate the developed approach.

Keywords: Angel cosine, ideal decision, projection method, weights of decision makers.

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403 Study of the Electromagnetic Resonances of a Cavity with an Aperture Using Numerical Method and Equivalent Circuit Method

Authors: Ming-Chu Yin, Ping-An Du

Abstract:

The shielding ability of a shielding cavity with an aperture will be greatly degraded at resonance frequencies, and the resonance modes and frequencies are affected by aperture resonances and aperture-cavity coupling, which are closely related with aperture sizes. The equivalent circuit method and numerical method of Transmission Line Matrix (TLM) are used to analyze the effects of aperture resonances and aperture-cavity coupling on the electromagnetic resonances of a cavity with an aperture in this paper. Both analytical and numerical results show that the resonance modes of a shielding cavity with an aperture consist of cavity resonance modes and aperture resonance modes, and the resonance frequencies will shift with the change of the aperture sizes because of the aperture resonances and aperture-cavity coupling. Variation rules of electromagnetic resonances with aperture sizes for a cavity with an aperture are given, which will be useful for design of shielding cavities.

Keywords: Aperture-cavity coupling, equivalent circuit method, resonances, shielding equipment.

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402 Treatment of Eutrophic-lake Water by Free Water Surface Wetland

Authors: Haodong Wu, Ping Huang, Junsan Wang

Abstract:

In China, with the rapid urbanization and industrialization, and highly accelerated economic development have resulted in degradation of water resource. The water quality deterioration usual result from eutrophication in most cases, so how to dispose this type pollution water higher efficiently is an urgent task. Hower, different with traditional technology, constructed wetlands are effective treatment systems that can be very useful because they are simple technology and low operational cost. A pilot-scale treatment including constructed wetlands was constructed at XingYun Lake, Yuxi, China, and operated as primary treatment measure before eutrophic-lake water draining to riverine landscape. Water quality indices were determined during the experiment, the results indicated that treatment removal efficiencies were high for Nitrate nitrogen, Chlorophyll–a and Algae, the final removal efficiency reached to 95.20%, 93.33% and 99.87% respectively, but the removal efficiency of Total phosphorous and Total nitrogen only reach to 68.83% and 50.00% respectively.

Keywords: Constructed wetland, Eutrophic-lake water, Nutrientremoval, Removal efficiency

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401 Investigation of Shear Thickening Liquid Protection Fibrous Material

Authors: Po-Yun Chen, Jui-Liang Yen, Chang-Ping Chang, Wen-Hua Hu, Yu-Liang Chen, Yih-Ming Liu, Chin-Yi Chou, Ming-Der Ger

Abstract:

The stab resistance performance of newly developed fabric composites composed of hexagonal paper honeycombs, filled with shear thickening fluid (STF), and woven Kevlar® fabric or UHMPE was investigated in this study. The STF was prepared by dispersing submicron SiO2 particles into polyethylene glycol (PEG). Our results indicate that the STF-Kevlar composite possessed lower penetration depth than that of neat Kevlar. In other words, the STF-Kevlar composite can attain the same energy level in stab-resistance test with fewer layers of Kevlar fabrics than that of the neat Kevlar fabrics. It also indicates that STF can be used for the fabrication of flexible body armors and can provide improved protection against stab threats. We found that the stab resistance of the STF-Kevlar composite increases with the increase of SiO2 concentration in STF. Moreover, the silica particles functionalized with silane coupling agent can further improve the stab resistance.

Keywords: shear thickening fluid, SiO2, Kevlar, stab

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400 Preparation of ATO Conductive Particles with Narrow Size Distribution

Authors: Yueying Wu, Fengzhu Lv, Yihe Zhang, Zixian Xu

Abstract:

Antimosy-doped tin oxide (ATO) particles were prepared via chemical coprecipitation and reverse emulsion. The size and size distribution of ATO particles were obviously decreased via reverse microemulsion method. At the relatively high yield the ATO particles were nearly spherical in shape, meanwhile the crystalline structure and excellent conductivity were reserved, which could satisfy the requirement as composite fillers, such as dielectric filler of polyimide film.

Keywords: ATO particle, Conductivity, Distribution, Reverse emulsion

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399 A New Heuristic Approach for the Stock- Cutting Problems

Authors: Stephen C. H. Leung, Defu Zhang

Abstract:

This paper addresses a stock-cutting problem with rotation of items and without the guillotine cutting constraint. In order to solve the large-scale problem effectively and efficiently, we propose a simple but fast heuristic algorithm. It is shown that this heuristic outperforms the latest published algorithms for large-scale problem instances.

Keywords: Combinatorial optimization, heuristic, large-scale, stock-cutting.

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398 The Effectiveness of ICT-Assisted PBL on College-Level Nano Knowledge and Learning Skills

Authors: Ya-Ting Carolyn Yang, Ping-Han Cheng, Shi-Hui Gilbert Chang, Terry Yuan-Fang Chen, Chih-Chieh Li

Abstract:

Nanotechnology is widely applied in various areas so professionals in the related fields have to know more than nano knowledge. In the study, we focus on adopting ICT-assisted PBL in college general education to foster professionals who possess multiple abilities. The research adopted a pretest and posttest quasi-experimental design. The control group received traditional instruction, and the experimental group received ICT-assisted PBL instruction. Descriptive statistics will be used to describe the means, standard deviations, and adjusted means for the tests between the two groups. Next, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) will be used to compare the final results of the two research groups after 6 weeks of instruction. Statistics gathered in the end of the research can be used to make contrasts. Therefore, we will see how different teaching strategies can improve students’ understanding about nanotechnology and learning skills.

Keywords: Nanotechnology, science education, project-based learning, information and communication technology.

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397 Internet Shopping: A Study Based On Hedonic Value and Flow Theory

Authors: Pui-Lai To, E-Ping Sung

Abstract:

With the flourishing development of online shopping, an increasing number of customers see online shopping as an entertaining experience. Because the online consumer has a double identity as a shopper and an Internet user, online shopping should offer hedonic values of shopping and Internet usage. The purpose of this study is to investigate hedonic online shopping motivations from the perspectives of traditional hedonic value and flow theory. The study adopted a focus group interview method, including two online and two offline interviews. Four focus groups of shoppers consisted of online professionals, online college students, offline professionals and offline college students. The results of the study indicate that traditional hedonic values and dimensions of flow theory exist in the online shopping environment. The study indicated that online shoppers seem to appreciate being able to learn things and grow to become competitive achievers online. Comparisons of online hedonic motivations between groups are conducted. This study serves as a basis for the future growth of Internet marketing.

Keywords: Flow theory, hedonic motivation, internet shopping.

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396 A Hybrid Model of ARIMA and Multiple Polynomial Regression for Uncertainties Modeling of a Serial Production Line

Authors: Amir Azizi, Amir Yazid b. Ali, Loh Wei Ping, Mohsen Mohammadzadeh

Abstract:

Uncertainties of a serial production line affect on the production throughput. The uncertainties cannot be prevented in a real production line. However the uncertain conditions can be controlled by a robust prediction model. Thus, a hybrid model including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multiple polynomial regression, is proposed to model the nonlinear relationship of production uncertainties with throughput. The uncertainties under consideration of this study are demand, breaktime, scrap, and lead-time. The nonlinear relationship of production uncertainties with throughput are examined in the form of quadratic and cubic regression models, where the adjusted R-squared for quadratic and cubic regressions was 98.3% and 98.2%. We optimized the multiple quadratic regression (MQR) by considering the time series trend of the uncertainties using ARIMA model. Finally the hybrid model of ARIMA and MQR is formulated by better adjusted R-squared, which is 98.9%.

Keywords: ARIMA, multiple polynomial regression, production throughput, uncertainties

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395 Electrical Performance of a Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Unit with Non-Uniform Inlet Flow and High Fuel Utilization

Authors: Ping Yuan, Mu-Sheng Chiang, Syu-Fang Liu, Shih-Bin Wang, Ming-Jun Kuo

Abstract:

This study investigates the electrical performance of a planar solid oxide fuel cell unit with cross-flow configuration when the fuel utilization gets higher and the fuel inlet flow are non-uniform. A software package in this study solves two-dimensional, simultaneous, partial differential equations of mass, energy, and electro-chemistry, without considering stack direction variation. The results show that the fuel utilization increases with a decrease in the molar flow rate, and the average current density decreases when the molar flow rate drops. In addition, non-uniform Pattern A will induce more severe happening of non-reaction area in the corner of the fuel exit and the air inlet. This non-reaction area deteriorates the average current density and then deteriorates the electrical performance to –7%.

Keywords: Performance, Solid oxide fuel cell, non-uniform, fuelutilization

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394 Numerical Modeling of Benzene Transport in Andosol and Sand: Adequacy of Diffusion and Equilibrium Adsorption Equations

Authors: Ping Du, Masaki Sagehashi, Akihiko Terada, Masaaki Hosomi

Abstract:

Prediction of benzene transport in soil and volatilization from soil to the atmosphere is important for the preservation of human health and management of contaminated soils. The adequacy of a simple numerical model, assuming two-phase diffusion and equilibrium of liquid/solid adsorption, was investigated by experimental data of benzene concentration in a flux chamber (with headspace) where Andosol and sand were filled. Adsorption experiment for liquid phase was performed to determine an adsorption coefficient. Furthermore, adequacy of vapor phase adsorption was also studied through two runs of experiment using sand with different water content. The results show that the model adequately predicted benzene transport and volatilization from Andosol and sand with water content of 14.0%. In addition, the experiment additionally revealed that vapor phase adsorption should be considered in diffusion model for sand with very low water content.

Keywords: Benzene; Transport Model, Adsorption, Soil Contaminant.

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393 A New Preconditioned AOR Method for Z-matrices

Authors: Guangbin Wang, Ning Zhang, Fuping Tan

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a preconditioned AOR-type iterative method for solving the linear systems Ax = b, where A is a Z-matrix. And give some comparison theorems to show that the rate of convergence of the preconditioned AOR-type iterative method is faster than the rate of convergence of the AOR-type iterative method.

Keywords: Z-matrix, AOR-type iterative method, precondition, comparison.

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392 Study on Distortion of Bi-Steel Concrete Beam

Authors: G. W. Ni, Y. M. Zhang, D. L. Jiang, J. N. Chen, X. G. Wang

Abstract:

As an economic and safe structure, Bi-steel is widely used in reinforced concrete with less consumption of steel. In this paper, III Bi-steel concrete beam has been analyzed. Through careful observation and theoretical analysis, the new calculating formulae for structural rigidity and crack have been formulated for this Bi-steel concrete beam. And structural rigidity and the crack features have also been theoretically analyzed.

Keywords: Bi-steel, concrete beam, crack, rigidity.

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391 Effects of Functional Protein on Osteoblasts in Rat

Authors: Jie Sun, Guoyou Yin, Xianqing Zhang, Qiusheng She, Zhaohui Xie, Lanying Chen, Anfang Zhao

Abstract:

To assess the effects of functional protein on osteoblast, Large quantity of high-purity osteoblasts had been cultivated successfully by adopting sequential enzyme digestion. The growth curve of osteoblasts was protracted by cell counting. Proliferation of osteoblasts was assessed by MTT colorimetry. The experimental results show the functional protein can enhance proliferation, the properties of adhesion and discuss the effect of osteopontin on osteoblast.

Keywords: functional protein, osteoblast, MTT

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390 Nonoscillation Criteria for Nonlinear Delay Dynamic Systems on Time Scales

Authors: Xinli Zhang

Abstract:

In this paper, we consider the nonlinear delay dynamic system xΔ(t) = p(t)f1(y(t)), yΔ(t) = −q(t)f2(x(t − τ )). We obtain some necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of nonoscillatory solutions with special asymptotic properties of the system. We generalize the known results in the literature. One example is given to illustrate the results.

Keywords: Dynamic system, oscillation, time scales, two-dimensional.

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389 Development of Fen4/C And Fen2/C Catalysts for Hydrodesulfurization and Hydrodearomitization of Model Compounds of Heavy Oil

Authors: Chaojie Song, Lianhui Ding, Craig Fairbridge, Hansan Liu, Rob Hui, Jiujun Zhang

Abstract:

Two novel hydrodesulfurization (HDS) catalysts: FeN4/C and FeN2/C, were prepared using an impregnation-pyrolysis method. The two materials were investigated as catalysts for hydrodesulfurization (HDS) and hydrodearomitization (HDA) of model compounds. The turnover frequency of the two FeN catalysts is comparable to (FeN4/C) or even higher (FeN2/C) than that of MoNi/Al2O3. The FeN4/C catalyst also exhibited catalytic activity toward HDA.

Keywords: catalyst, FeN2/C, FeN4/C, HDS, HDA

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388 On the Fuzzy Difference Equation xn+1 = A +

Authors: Qianhong Zhang, Lihui Yang, Daixi Liao,

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the existence, the boundedness and the asymptotic behavior of the positive solutions of a fuzzy nonlinear difference equations xn+1 = A + k i=0 Bi xn-i , n= 0, 1, · · · . where (xn) is a sequence of positive fuzzy numbers, A,Bi and the initial values x-k, x-k+1, · · · , x0 are positive fuzzy numbers. k ∈ {0, 1, 2, · · ·}.

Keywords: Fuzzy difference equation, boundedness, persistence, equilibrium point, asymptotic behaviour.

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387 Conjugate Gradient Algorithm for the Symmetric Arrowhead Solution of Matrix Equation AXB=C

Authors: Minghui Wang, Luping Xu, Juntao Zhang

Abstract:

Based on the conjugate gradient (CG) algorithm, the constrained matrix equation AXB=C and the associate optimal approximation problem are considered for the symmetric arrowhead matrix solutions in the premise of consistency. The convergence results of the method are presented. At last, a numerical example is given to illustrate the efficiency of this method.

Keywords: Iterative method, symmetric arrowhead matrix, conjugate gradient algorithm.

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386 Dynamic Behavior of the Nanostructure of Load-bearing Biological Materials

Authors: M. Qwamizadeh, K. Zhou, Z. Zhang, YW. Zhang

Abstract:

Typical load-bearing biological materials like bone, mineralized tendon and shell, are biocomposites made from both organic (collagen) and inorganic (biomineral) materials. This amazing class of materials with intrinsic internally designed hierarchical structures show superior mechanical properties with regard to their weak components from which they are formed. Extensive investigations concentrating on static loading conditions have been done to study the biological materials failure. However, most of the damage and failure mechanisms in load-bearing biological materials will occur whenever their structures are exposed to dynamic loading conditions. The main question needed to be answered here is: What is the relation between the layout and architecture of the load-bearing biological materials and their dynamic behavior? In this work, a staggered model has been developed based on the structure of natural materials at nanoscale and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) has been used to study the dynamic behavior of the structure of load-bearing biological materials to answer why the staggered arrangement has been selected by nature to make the nanocomposite structure of most of the biological materials. The results showed that the staggered structures will efficiently attenuate the stress wave rather than the layered structure. Furthermore, such staggered architecture is effectively in charge of utilizing the capacity of the biostructure to resist both normal and shear loads. In this work, the geometrical parameters of the model like the thickness and aspect ratio of the mineral inclusions selected from the typical range of the experimentally observed feature sizes and layout dimensions of the biological materials such as bone and mineralized tendon. Furthermore, the numerical results validated with existing theoretical solutions. Findings of the present work emphasize on the significant effects of dynamic behavior on the natural evolution of load-bearing biological materials and can help scientists to design bioinspired materials in the laboratories.

Keywords: Load-bearing biological materials, nanostructure, staggered structure, stress wave decay.

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385 Laplace Adomian Decomposition Method Applied to a Two-Dimensional Viscous Flow with Shrinking Sheet

Authors: M. A. Koroma, S. Widatalla, A. F. Kamara, C. Zhang

Abstract:

Our aim in this piece of work is to demonstrate the power of the Laplace Adomian decomposition method (LADM) in approximating the solutions of nonlinear differential equations governing the two-dimensional viscous flow induced by a shrinking sheet.

Keywords: Adomian polynomials, Laplace Adomian decomposition method, Padé Approximant, Shrinking sheet.

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384 A New Inversion-free Method for Hermitian Positive Definite Solution of Matrix Equation

Authors: Minghui Wang, Juntao Zhang

Abstract:

An inversion-free iterative algorithm is presented for solving nonlinear matrix equation with a stepsize parameter t. The existence of the maximal solution is discussed in detail, and the method for finding it is proposed. Finally, two numerical examples are reported that show the efficiency of the method.

Keywords: Inversion-free method, Hermitian positive definite solution, Maximal solution, Convergence.

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383 Strong Law of Large Numbers for *- Mixing Sequence

Authors: Bainian Li, Kongsheng Zhang

Abstract:

Strong law of large numbers and complete convergence for sequences of *-mixing random variables are investigated. In particular, Teicher-s strong law of large numbers for independent random variables are generalized to the case of *-mixing random sequences and extended to independent and identically distributed Marcinkiewicz Law of large numbers for *-mixing.

Keywords: mixing squences, strong law of large numbers, martingale differences, Lacunary System

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382 Modified Fuzzy PID Control for Networked Control Systems with Random Delays

Authors: Yong-can Cao, Wei-dong Zhang

Abstract:

To deal with random delays in Networked Control System (NCS), Modified Fuzzy PID Controller is introduced in this paper to implement real-time control adaptively. Via adjusting the control signal dynamically, the system performance is improved. In this paper, the design process and the ultimate simulation results are represented. Finally, examples and corresponding comparisons prove the significance of this method.

Keywords: Fuzzy Control, Networked Control System, PID, Random Delays

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381 Mixture Design Experiment on Flow Behaviour of O/W Emulsions as Affected by Polysaccharide Interactions

Authors: Nor Hayati Ibrahim, Yaakob B. Che Man, Chin Ping Tan, Nor Aini Idris

Abstract:

Interaction effects of xanthan gum (XG), carboxymethyl cellulose (CMC), and locust bean gum (LBG) on the flow properties of oil-in-water emulsions were investigated by a mixture design experiment. Blends of XG, CMC and LBG were prepared according to an augmented simplex-centroid mixture design (10 points) and used at 0.5% (wt/wt) in the emulsion formulations. An appropriate mathematical model was fitted to express each response as a function of the proportions of the blend components that are able to empirically predict the response to any blend of combination of the components. The synergistic interaction effect of the ternary XG:CMC:LBG blends at approximately 33-67% XG levels was shown to be much stronger than that of the binary XG:LBG blend at 50% XG level (p < 0.05). Nevertheless, an antagonistic interaction effect became significant as CMC level in blends was more than 33% (p < 0.05). Yield stress and apparent viscosity (at 10 s-1) responses were successfully fitted with a special quartic model while flow behaviour index and consistency coefficient were fitted with a full quartic model (R2 adjusted ≥ 0.90). This study found that a mixture design approach could serve as a valuable tool in better elucidating and predicting the interaction effects beyond the conventional twocomponent blends.

Keywords: O/W emulsions, flow behavior, polysaccharideinteraction, mixture design.

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380 A Novel Optimized JTAG Interface Circuit Design

Authors: Chenguang Guo, Lei Chen, Yanlong Zhang

Abstract:

This paper describes a novel optimized JTAG interface circuit between a JTAG controller and target IC. Being able to access JTAG using only one or two pins, this circuit does not change the original boundary scanning test frequency of target IC. Compared with the traditional JTAG interface which based on IEEE std. 1149.1, this reduced pin technology is more applicability in pin limited devices, and it is easier to control the scale of target IC for the designer.

Keywords: Boundary scan, JTAG interface, Test frequency, Reduced pin

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379 Production Throughput Modeling under Five Uncertain Variables Using Bayesian Inference

Authors: Amir Azizi, Amir Yazid B. Ali, Loh Wei Ping

Abstract:

Throughput is an important measure of performance of production system. Analyzing and modeling of production throughput is complex in today-s dynamic production systems due to uncertainties of production system. The main reasons are that uncertainties are materialized when the production line faces changes in setup time, machinery break down, lead time of manufacturing, and scraps. Besides, demand changes are fluctuating from time to time for each product type. These uncertainties affect the production performance. This paper proposes Bayesian inference for throughput modeling under five production uncertainties. Bayesian model utilized prior distributions related to previous information about the uncertainties where likelihood distributions are associated to the observed data. Gibbs sampling algorithm as the robust procedure of Monte Carlo Markov chain was employed for sampling unknown parameters and estimating the posterior mean of uncertainties. The Bayesian model was validated with respect to convergence and efficiency of its outputs. The results presented that the proposed Bayesian models were capable to predict the production throughput with accuracy of 98.3%.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, Uncertainty modeling, Monte Carlo Markov chain, Gibbs sampling, Production throughput

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