Search results for: Probabilistic regression automata
905 Numerical Simulations on Feasibility of Stochastic Model Predictive Control for Linear Discrete-Time Systems with Random Dither Quantization
Authors: Taiki Baba, Tomoaki Hashimoto
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The random dither quantization method enables us to achieve much better performance than the simple uniform quantization method for the design of quantized control systems. Motivated by this fact, the stochastic model predictive control method in which a performance index is minimized subject to probabilistic constraints imposed on the state variables of systems has been proposed for linear feedback control systems with random dither quantization. In other words, a method for solving optimal control problems subject to probabilistic state constraints for linear discrete-time control systems with random dither quantization has been already established. To our best knowledge, however, the feasibility of such a kind of optimal control problems has not yet been studied. Our objective in this paper is to investigate the feasibility of stochastic model predictive control problems for linear discrete-time control systems with random dither quantization. To this end, we provide the results of numerical simulations that verify the feasibility of stochastic model predictive control problems for linear discrete-time control systems with random dither quantization.Keywords: Model predictive control, stochastic systems, probabilistic constraints, random dither quantization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1019904 Segmentation of Piecewise Polynomial Regression Model by Using Reversible Jump MCMC Algorithm
Authors: Suparman
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Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.
Keywords: Piecewise, Bayesian, reversible jump MCMC, segmentation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1667903 Fuzzy Logic Approach to Robust Regression Models of Uncertain Medical Categories
Authors: Arkady Bolotin
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Dichotomization of the outcome by a single cut-off point is an important part of various medical studies. Usually the relationship between the resulted dichotomized dependent variable and explanatory variables is analyzed with linear regression, probit regression or logistic regression. However, in many real-life situations, a certain cut-off point dividing the outcome into two groups is unknown and can be specified only approximately, i.e. surrounded by some (small) uncertainty. It means that in order to have any practical meaning the regression model must be robust to this uncertainty. In this paper, we show that neither the beta in the linear regression model, nor its significance level is robust to the small variations in the dichotomization cut-off point. As an alternative robust approach to the problem of uncertain medical categories, we propose to use the linear regression model with the fuzzy membership function as a dependent variable. This fuzzy membership function denotes to what degree the value of the underlying (continuous) outcome falls below or above the dichotomization cut-off point. In the paper, we demonstrate that the linear regression model of the fuzzy dependent variable can be insensitive against the uncertainty in the cut-off point location. In the paper we present the modeling results from the real study of low hemoglobin levels in infants. We systematically test the robustness of the binomial regression model and the linear regression model with the fuzzy dependent variable by changing the boundary for the category Anemia and show that the behavior of the latter model persists over a quite wide interval.
Keywords: Categorization, Uncertain medical categories, Binomial regression model, Fuzzy dependent variable, Robustness.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1558902 Seismic Directionality Effects on In-Structure Response Spectra in Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Authors: S. Jarernprasert, E. Bazan-Zurita, P. C. Rizzo
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Currently, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) for nuclear facilities use In-Structure Response Spectra (ISRS) in the calculation of fragilities for systems and components. ISRS are calculated via dynamic analyses of the host building subjected to two orthogonal components of horizontal ground motion. Each component is defined as the median motion in any horizontal direction. Structural engineers applied the components along selected X and Y Cartesian axes. The ISRS at different locations in the building are also calculated in the X and Y directions. The choice of the directions of X and Y are not specified by the ground motion model with respect to geographic coordinates, and are rather arbitrarily selected by the structural engineer. Normally, X and Y coincide with the “principal” axes of the building, in the understanding that this practice is generally conservative. For SPRA purposes, however, it is desirable to remove any conservatism in the estimates of median ISRS. This paper examines the effects of the direction of horizontal seismic motion on the ISRS on typical nuclear structure. We also evaluate the variability of ISRS calculated along different horizontal directions. Our results indicate that some central measures of the ISRS provide robust estimates that are practically independent of the selection of the directions of the horizontal Cartesian axes.
Keywords: Seismic, Directionality, In-Structure Response Spectra, Probabilistic Risk Assessment.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2530901 The Relative Efficiency of Parameter Estimation in Linear Weighted Regression
Authors: Baoguang Tian, Nan Chen
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A new relative efficiency in linear model in reference is instructed into the linear weighted regression, and its upper and lower bound are proposed. In the linear weighted regression model, for the best linear unbiased estimation of mean matrix respect to the least-squares estimation, two new relative efficiencies are given, and their upper and lower bounds are also studied.
Keywords: Linear weighted regression, Relative efficiency, Mean matrix, Trace.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2471900 Nuclear Fuel Safety Threshold Determined by Logistic Regression Plus Uncertainty
Authors: D. S. Gomes, A. T. Silva
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Analysis of the uncertainty quantification related to nuclear safety margins applied to the nuclear reactor is an important concept to prevent future radioactive accidents. The nuclear fuel performance code may involve the tolerance level determined by traditional deterministic models producing acceptable results at burn cycles under 62 GWd/MTU. The behavior of nuclear fuel can simulate applying a series of material properties under irradiation and physics models to calculate the safety limits. In this study, theoretical predictions of nuclear fuel failure under transient conditions investigate extended radiation cycles at 75 GWd/MTU, considering the behavior of fuel rods in light-water reactors under reactivity accident conditions. The fuel pellet can melt due to the quick increase of reactivity during a transient. Large power excursions in the reactor are the subject of interest bringing to a treatment that is known as the Fuchs-Hansen model. The point kinetic neutron equations show similar characteristics of non-linear differential equations. In this investigation, the multivariate logistic regression is employed to a probabilistic forecast of fuel failure. A comparison of computational simulation and experimental results was acceptable. The experiments carried out use the pre-irradiated fuels rods subjected to a rapid energy pulse which exhibits the same behavior during a nuclear accident. The propagation of uncertainty utilizes the Wilk's formulation. The variables chosen as essential to failure prediction were the fuel burnup, the applied peak power, the pulse width, the oxidation layer thickness, and the cladding type.Keywords: Logistic regression, reactivity-initiated accident, safety margins, uncertainty propagation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1017899 A Probabilistic Reinforcement-Based Approach to Conceptualization
Authors: Hadi Firouzi, Majid Nili Ahmadabadi, Babak N. Araabi
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Conceptualization strengthens intelligent systems in generalization skill, effective knowledge representation, real-time inference, and managing uncertain and indefinite situations in addition to facilitating knowledge communication for learning agents situated in real world. Concept learning introduces a way of abstraction by which the continuous state is formed as entities called concepts which are connected to the action space and thus, they illustrate somehow the complex action space. Of computational concept learning approaches, action-based conceptualization is favored because of its simplicity and mirror neuron foundations in neuroscience. In this paper, a new biologically inspired concept learning approach based on the probabilistic framework is proposed. This approach exploits and extends the mirror neuron-s role in conceptualization for a reinforcement learning agent in nondeterministic environments. In the proposed method, instead of building a huge numerical knowledge, the concepts are learnt gradually from rewards through interaction with the environment. Moreover the probabilistic formation of the concepts is employed to deal with uncertain and dynamic nature of real problems in addition to the ability of generalization. These characteristics as a whole distinguish the proposed learning algorithm from both a pure classification algorithm and typical reinforcement learning. Simulation results show advantages of the proposed framework in terms of convergence speed as well as generalization and asymptotic behavior because of utilizing both success and failures attempts through received rewards. Experimental results, on the other hand, show the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed method in continuous and noisy environments for a real robotic task such as maze as well as the benefits of implementing an incremental learning scenario in artificial agents.
Keywords: Concept learning, probabilistic decision making, reinforcement learning.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1526898 Internet Purchases in European Union Countries: Multiple Linear Regression Approach
Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Irena Palić
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This paper examines economic and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) development influence on recently increasing Internet purchases by individuals for European Union member states. After a growing trend for Internet purchases in EU27 was noticed, all possible regression analysis was applied using nine independent variables in 2011. Finally, two linear regression models were studied in detail. Conducted simple linear regression analysis confirmed the research hypothesis that the Internet purchases in analyzed EU countries is positively correlated with statistically significant variable Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPpc). Also, analyzed multiple linear regression model with four regressors, showing ICT development level, indicates that ICT development is crucial for explaining the Internet purchases by individuals, confirming the research hypothesis.
Keywords: European Union, Internet purchases, multiple linear regression model, outlier
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2954897 Improving Flash Flood Forecasting with a Bayesian Probabilistic Approach: A Case Study on the Posina Basin in Italy
Authors: Zviad Ghadua, Biswa Bhattacharya
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The Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) provides the rainfall amount of a given duration necessary to cause flooding. The approach is based on the development of rainfall-runoff curves, which helps us to find out the rainfall amount that would cause flooding. An alternative approach, mostly experimented with Italian Alpine catchments, is based on determining threshold discharges from past events and on finding whether or not an oncoming flood has its magnitude more than some critical discharge thresholds found beforehand. Both approaches suffer from large uncertainties in forecasting flash floods as, due to the simplistic approach followed, the same rainfall amount may or may not cause flooding. This uncertainty leads to the question whether a probabilistic model is preferable over a deterministic one in forecasting flash floods. We propose the use of a Bayesian probabilistic approach in flash flood forecasting. A prior probability of flooding is derived based on historical data. Additional information, such as antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and rainfall amount over any rainfall thresholds are used in computing the likelihood of observing these conditions given a flash flood has occurred. Finally, the posterior probability of flooding is computed using the prior probability and the likelihood. The variation of the computed posterior probability with rainfall amount and AMC presents the suitability of the approach in decision making in an uncertain environment. The methodology has been applied to the Posina basin in Italy. From the promising results obtained, we can conclude that the Bayesian approach in flash flood forecasting provides more realistic forecasting over the FFG.
Keywords: Flash flood, Bayesian, flash flood guidance, FFG, forecasting, Posina.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 747896 Extended Least Squares LS–SVM
Authors: József Valyon, Gábor Horváth
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Among neural models the Support Vector Machine (SVM) solutions are attracting increasing attention, mostly because they eliminate certain crucial questions involved by neural network construction. The main drawback of standard SVM is its high computational complexity, therefore recently a new technique, the Least Squares SVM (LS–SVM) has been introduced. In this paper we present an extended view of the Least Squares Support Vector Regression (LS–SVR), which enables us to develop new formulations and algorithms to this regression technique. Based on manipulating the linear equation set -which embodies all information about the regression in the learning process- some new methods are introduced to simplify the formulations, speed up the calculations and/or provide better results.Keywords: Function estimation, Least–Squares Support VectorMachines, Regression, System Modeling
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2008895 Optimization of Slider Crank Mechanism Using Design of Experiments and Multi-Linear Regression
Authors: Galal Elkobrosy, Amr M. Abdelrazek, Bassuny M. Elsouhily, Mohamed E. Khidr
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Crank shaft length, connecting rod length, crank angle, engine rpm, cylinder bore, mass of piston and compression ratio are the inputs that can control the performance of the slider crank mechanism and then its efficiency. Several combinations of these seven inputs are used and compared. The throughput engine torque predicted by the simulation is analyzed through two different regression models, with and without interaction terms, developed according to multi-linear regression using LU decomposition to solve system of algebraic equations. These models are validated. A regression model in seven inputs including their interaction terms lowered the polynomial degree from 3rd degree to 1st degree and suggested valid predictions and stable explanations.
Keywords: Design of experiments, regression analysis, SI Engine, statistical modeling.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1251894 Churn Prediction: Does Technology Matter?
Authors: John Hadden, Ashutosh Tiwari, Rajkumar Roy, Dymitr Ruta
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The aim of this paper is to identify the most suitable model for churn prediction based on three different techniques. The paper identifies the variables that affect churn in reverence of customer complaints data and provides a comparative analysis of neural networks, regression trees and regression in their capabilities of predicting customer churn.Keywords: Churn, Decision Trees, Neural Networks, Regression.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 3300893 Categorical Data Modeling: Logistic Regression Software
Authors: Abdellatif Tchantchane
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A Matlab based software for logistic regression is developed to enhance the process of teaching quantitative topics and assist researchers with analyzing wide area of applications where categorical data is involved. The software offers an option of performing stepwise logistic regression to select the most significant predictors. The software includes a feature to detect influential observations in data, and investigates the effect of dropping or misclassifying an observation on a predictor variable. The input data may consist either as a set of individual responses (yes/no) with the predictor variables or as grouped records summarizing various categories for each unique set of predictor variables' values. Graphical displays are used to output various statistical results and to assess the goodness of fit of the logistic regression model. The software recognizes possible convergence constraints when present in data, and the user is notified accordingly.
Keywords: Logistic regression, Matlab, Categorical data, Influential observation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1881892 Research on the Problems of Housing Prices in Qingdao from a Macro Perspective
Authors: Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi, Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi
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Qingdao is a seaside city. Taking into account the characteristics of Qingdao, this article established a multiple linear regression model to analyze the impact of macroeconomic factors on housing prices. We used stepwise regression method to make multiple linear regression analysis, and made statistical analysis of F test values and T test values. According to the analysis results, the model is continuously optimized. Finally, this article obtained the multiple linear regression equation and the influencing factors, and the reliability of the model was verified by F test and T test.
Keywords: Housing prices, multiple linear regression model, macroeconomic factors, Qingdao City.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1178891 Application the Statistical Conditional Entropy Function for Definition of Cause-and-Effect Relations during Primary Soil Formation
Authors: Vladimir K. Mukhomorov
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Within the framework of a method of the information theory it is offered statistics and probabilistic model for definition of cause-and-effect relations in the coupled multicomponent subsystems. The quantitative parameter which is defined through conditional and unconditional entropy functions is introduced. The method is applied to the analysis of the experimental data on dynamics of change of the chemical elements composition of plants organs (roots, reproductive organs, leafs and stems). Experiment is directed on studying of temporal processes of primary soil formation and their connection with redistribution dynamics of chemical elements in plant organs. This statistics and probabilistic model allows also quantitatively and unambiguously to specify the directions of the information streams on plant organs.Keywords: Chemical elements, entropy function, information, plants.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1358890 Estimating Regression Parameters in Linear Regression Model with a Censored Response Variable
Authors: Jesus Orbe, Vicente Nunez-Anton
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In this work we study the effect of several covariates X on a censored response variable T with unknown probability distribution. In this context, most of the studies in the literature can be located in two possible general classes of regression models: models that study the effect the covariates have on the hazard function; and models that study the effect the covariates have on the censored response variable. Proposals in this paper are in the second class of models and, more specifically, on least squares based model approach. Thus, using the bootstrap estimate of the bias, we try to improve the estimation of the regression parameters by reducing their bias, for small sample sizes. Simulation results presented in the paper show that, for reasonable sample sizes and censoring levels, the bias is always smaller for the new proposals.
Keywords: Censored response variable, regression, bias.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1474889 Optimal Mitigation of Slopes by Probabilistic Methods
Authors: D. De-León-Escobedo, D. J. Delgado-Hernández, S. Pérez
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A probabilistic formulation to assess the slopes safety under the hazard of strong storms is presented and illustrated through a slope in Mexico. The formulation is based on the classical safety factor (SF) used in practice to appraise the slope stability, but it is introduced the treatment of uncertainties, and the slope failure probability is calculated as the probability that SF<1. As the main hazard is the rainfall on the area, statistics of rainfall intensity and duration are considered and modeled with an exponential distribution. The expected life-cycle cost is assessed by considering a monetary value on the slope failure consequences. Alternative mitigation measures are simulated, and the formulation is used to get the measures driving to the optimal one (minimum life-cycle costs). For the example, the optimal mitigation measure is the reduction on the slope inclination angle.
Keywords: Expected life-cycle cost, failure probability, slopes failure, storms.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 781888 Adjusted Ratio and Regression Type Estimators for Estimation of Population Mean when some Observations are missing
Authors: Nuanpan Nangsue
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Ratio and regression type estimators have been used by previous authors to estimate a population mean for the principal variable from samples in which both auxiliary x and principal y variable data are available. However, missing data are a common problem in statistical analyses with real data. Ratio and regression type estimators have also been used for imputing values of missing y data. In this paper, six new ratio and regression type estimators are proposed for imputing values for any missing y data and estimating a population mean for y from samples with missing x and/or y data. A simulation study has been conducted to compare the six ratio and regression type estimators with a previous estimator of Rueda. Two population sizes N = 1,000 and 5,000 have been considered with sample sizes of 10% and 30% and with correlation coefficients between population variables X and Y of 0.5 and 0.8. In the simulations, 10 and 40 percent of sample y values and 10 and 40 percent of sample x values were randomly designated as missing. The new ratio and regression type estimators give similar mean absolute percentage errors that are smaller than the Rueda estimator for all cases. The new estimators give a large reduction in errors for the case of 40% missing y values and sampling fraction of 30%.
Keywords: Auxiliary variable, missing data, ratio and regression type estimators.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1731887 MITAutomatic ECG Beat Tachycardia Detection Using Artificial Neural Network
Authors: R. Amandi, A. Shahbazi, A. Mohebi, M. Bazargan, Y. Jaberi, P. Emadi, A. Valizade
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The application of Neural Network for disease diagnosis has made great progress and is widely used by physicians. An Electrocardiogram carries vital information about heart activity and physicians use this signal for cardiac disease diagnosis which was the great motivation towards our study. In our work, tachycardia features obtained are used for the training and testing of a Neural Network. In this study we are using Fuzzy Probabilistic Neural Networks as an automatic technique for ECG signal analysis. As every real signal recorded by the equipment can have different artifacts, we needed to do some preprocessing steps before feeding it to our system. Wavelet transform is used for extracting the morphological parameters of the ECG signal. The outcome of the approach for the variety of arrhythmias shows the represented approach is superior than prior presented algorithms with an average accuracy of about %95 for more than 7 tachy arrhythmias.Keywords: Fuzzy Logic, Probabilistic Neural Network, Tachycardia, Wavelet Transform.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2289886 A Probabilistic Optimization Approach for a Gas Processing Plant under Uncertain Feed Conditions and Product Requirements
Authors: G. Mesfin, M. Shuhaimi
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This paper proposes a new optimization techniques for the optimization a gas processing plant uncertain feed and product flows. The problem is first formulated using a continuous linear deterministic approach. Subsequently, the single and joint chance constraint models for steady state process with timedependent uncertainties have been developed. The solution approach is based on converting the probabilistic problems into their equivalent deterministic form and solved at different confidence levels Case study for a real plant operation has been used to effectively implement the proposed model. The optimization results indicate that prior decision has to be made for in-operating plant under uncertain feed and product flows by satisfying all the constraints at 95% confidence level for single chance constrained and 85% confidence level for joint chance constrained optimizations cases.Keywords: Butane, Feed composition, LPG, Productspecification, Propane.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1396885 Quality of Service Evaluation using a Combination of Fuzzy C-Means and Regression Model
Authors: Aboagela Dogman, Reza Saatchi, Samir Al-Khayatt
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In this study, a network quality of service (QoS) evaluation system was proposed. The system used a combination of fuzzy C-means (FCM) and regression model to analyse and assess the QoS in a simulated network. Network QoS parameters of multimedia applications were intelligently analysed by FCM clustering algorithm. The QoS parameters for each FCM cluster centre were then inputted to a regression model in order to quantify the overall QoS. The proposed QoS evaluation system provided valuable information about the network-s QoS patterns and based on this information, the overall network-s QoS was effectively quantified.Keywords: Fuzzy C-means; regression model, network quality of service
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1719884 Defect Cause Modeling with Decision Tree and Regression Analysis
Authors: B. Bakır, İ. Batmaz, F. A. Güntürkün, İ. A. İpekçi, G. Köksal, N. E. Özdemirel
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The main aim of this study is to identify the most influential variables that cause defects on the items produced by a casting company located in Turkey. To this end, one of the items produced by the company with high defective percentage rates is selected. Two approaches-the regression analysis and decision treesare used to model the relationship between process parameters and defect types. Although logistic regression models failed, decision tree model gives meaningful results. Based on these results, it can be claimed that the decision tree approach is a promising technique for determining the most important process variables.Keywords: Casting industry, decision tree algorithm C5.0, logistic regression, quality improvement.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2517883 A Three Elements Vector Valued Structure’s Ultimate Strength-Strong Motion-Intensity Measure
Authors: A. Nicknam, N. Eftekhari, A. Mazarei, M. Ganjvar
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This article presents an alternative collapse capacity intensity measure in the three elements form which is influenced by the spectral ordinates at periods longer than that of the first mode period at near and far source sites. A parameter, denoted by β, is defined by which the spectral ordinate effects, up to the effective period (2T1), on the intensity measure are taken into account. The methodology permits to meet the hazard-levelled target extreme event in the probabilistic and deterministic forms. A MATLAB code is developed involving OpenSees to calculate the collapse capacities of the 8 archetype RC structures having 2 to 20 stories for regression process. The incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) method is used to calculate the structure’s collapse values accounting for the element stiffness and strength deterioration. The general near field set presented by FEMA is used in a series of performing nonlinear analyses. 8 linear relationships are developed for the 8structutres leading to the correlation coefficient up to 0.93. A collapse capacity near field prediction equation is developed taking into account the results of regression processes obtained from the 8 structures. The proposed prediction equation is validated against a set of actual near field records leading to a good agreement. Implementation of the proposed equation to the four archetype RC structures demonstrated different collapse capacities at near field site compared to those of FEMA. The reasons of differences are believed to be due to accounting for the spectral shape effects.Keywords: Collapse capacity, fragility analysis, spectral shape effects, IDA method.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1793882 Reliability-based Selection of Wind Turbines for Large-Scale Wind Farms
Authors: M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, A. Salehi Dobakhshari
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This paper presents a reliability-based approach to select appropriate wind turbine types for a wind farm considering site-specific wind speed patterns. An actual wind farm in the northern region of Iran with the wind speed registration of one year is studied in this paper. An analytic approach based on total probability theorem is utilized in this paper to model the probabilistic behavior of both turbines- availability and wind speed. Well-known probabilistic reliability indices such as loss of load expectation (LOLE), expected energy not supplied (EENS) and incremental peak load carrying capability (IPLCC) for wind power integration in the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) are examined. The most appropriate turbine type achieving the highest reliability level is chosen for the studied wind farm.
Keywords: Wind Turbine Generator, Wind Farm, Power System Reliability, Wind Turbine Type Selection
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1775881 Performance Analysis of Adaptive LMS Filter through Regression Analysis using SystemC
Authors: Hyeong-Geon Lee, Jae-Young Park, Suk-ki Lee, Jong-Tae Kim
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The LMS adaptive filter has several parameters which can affect their performance. From among these parameters, most papers handle the step size parameter for controlling the performance. In this paper, we approach three parameters: step-size, filter tap-size and filter form. The regression analysis is used for defining the relation between parameters and performance of LMS adaptive filter with using the system level simulation results. The results present that all parameters have performance trends in each own particular form, which can be estimated from equations drawn by regression analysis.
Keywords: System level model, adaptive LMS FIR filter, regression analysis, systemC.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2799880 Density Estimation using Generalized Linear Model and a Linear Combination of Gaussians
Authors: Aly Farag, Ayman El-Baz, Refaat Mohamed
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In this paper we present a novel approach for density estimation. The proposed approach is based on using the logistic regression model to get initial density estimation for the given empirical density. The empirical data does not exactly follow the logistic regression model, so, there will be a deviation between the empirical density and the density estimated using logistic regression model. This deviation may be positive and/or negative. In this paper we use a linear combination of Gaussian (LCG) with positive and negative components as a model for this deviation. Also, we will use the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the parameters of LCG. Experiments on real images demonstrate the accuracy of our approach.
Keywords: Logistic regression model, Expectationmaximization, Segmentation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1732879 Multiple Regression based Graphical Modeling for Images
Authors: Pavan S., Sridhar G., Sridhar V.
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Super resolution is one of the commonly referred inference problems in computer vision. In the case of images, this problem is generally addressed using a graphical model framework wherein each node represents a portion of the image and the edges between the nodes represent the statistical dependencies. However, the large dimensionality of images along with the large number of possible states for a node makes the inference problem computationally intractable. In this paper, we propose a representation wherein each node can be represented as acombination of multiple regression functions. The proposed approach achieves a tradeoff between the computational complexity and inference accuracy by varying the number of regression functions for a node.
Keywords: Belief propagation, Graphical model, Regression, Super resolution.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 1545878 Empirical Statistical Modeling of Rainfall Prediction over Myanmar
Authors: Wint Thida Zaw, Thinn Thu Naing
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One of the essential sectors of Myanmar economy is agriculture which is sensitive to climate variation. The most important climatic element which impacts on agriculture sector is rainfall. Thus rainfall prediction becomes an important issue in agriculture country. Multi variables polynomial regression (MPR) provides an effective way to describe complex nonlinear input output relationships so that an outcome variable can be predicted from the other or others. In this paper, the modeling of monthly rainfall prediction over Myanmar is described in detail by applying the polynomial regression equation. The proposed model results are compared to the results produced by multiple linear regression model (MLR). Experiments indicate that the prediction model based on MPR has higher accuracy than using MLR.Keywords: Polynomial Regression, Rainfall Forecasting, Statistical forecasting.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2631877 The Predictability and Abstractness of Language: A Study in Understanding and Usage of the English Language through Probabilistic Modeling and Frequency
Authors: Revanth Sai Kosaraju, Michael Ramscar, Melody Dye
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Accounts of language acquisition differ significantly in their treatment of the role of prediction in language learning. In particular, nativist accounts posit that probabilistic learning about words and word sequences has little to do with how children come to use language. The accuracy of this claim was examined by testing whether distributional probabilities and frequency contributed to how well 3-4 year olds repeat simple word chunks. Corresponding chunks were the same length, expressed similar content, and were all grammatically acceptable, yet the results of the study showed marked differences in performance when overall distributional frequency varied. It was found that a distributional model of language predicted the empirical findings better than a number of other models, replicating earlier findings and showing that children attend to distributional probabilities in an adult corpus. This suggested that language is more prediction-and-error based, rather than on abstract rules which nativist camps suggest.
Keywords: Abstractness, child psychology, language acquisition, prediction and error.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2094876 Neural Network based Texture Analysis of Liver Tumor from Computed Tomography Images
Authors: K.Mala, V.Sadasivam, S.Alagappan
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Advances in clinical medical imaging have brought about the routine production of vast numbers of medical images that need to be analyzed. As a result an enormous amount of computer vision research effort has been targeted at achieving automated medical image analysis. Computed Tomography (CT) is highly accurate for diagnosing liver tumors. This study aimed to evaluate the potential role of the wavelet and the neural network in the differential diagnosis of liver tumors in CT images. The tumors considered in this study are hepatocellular carcinoma, cholangio carcinoma, hemangeoma and hepatoadenoma. Each suspicious tumor region was automatically extracted from the CT abdominal images and the textural information obtained was used to train the Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) to classify the tumors. Results obtained were evaluated with the help of radiologists. The system differentiates the tumor with relatively high accuracy and is therefore clinically useful.
Keywords: Fuzzy c means clustering, texture analysis, probabilistic neural network, LVQ neural network.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2987