Search results for: Bayesian learning
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2153

Search results for: Bayesian learning

2063 Blended Learning through Google Classroom

Authors: Lee Bih Ni

Abstract:

This paper discusses that good learning involves all academic groups in the school. Blended learning is learning outside the classroom. Google Classroom is a free service learning app for schools, non-profit organizations and anyone with a personal Google account. Facilities accessed through computers and mobile phones are very useful for school teachers and students. Blended learning classrooms using both traditional and technology-based methods for teaching have become the norm for many educators. Using Google Classroom gives students access to online learning. Even if the teacher is not in the classroom, the teacher can provide learning. This is the supervision of the form of the teacher when the student is outside the school.

Keywords: Blended learning, learning app, Google classroom, schools.

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2062 The Future of Blended Learning

Authors: Reem A. Alebaikan

Abstract:

The emergence of blended learning has been influenced by the rapid changes in Higher Education within the last few years. However, there is a lack of studies that look into the future of blended learning in the Saudi context. The most likely explanation is that blended learning is relatively new and, with respect to learning in general, under-researched. This study addresses this gap and explores the views of lecturers and students towards the future of blended learning in Saudi Arabia. This study was informed by the interpretive paradigm that appears to be most appropriate to understand and interpret the perceptions of students and instructors towards a new learning environment. While globally there has been considerable research on the perceptions of e-learning and blended learning with its different models, there is plenty of space for further research specifically in the Arab region, and in Saudi Arabia where blended learning is now being introduced.

Keywords: blended learning, higher education.

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2061 The Design of the Blended Learning System via E-Media and Online Learning for the Asynchronous Learning: Case Study of Process Management Subject

Authors: Pimploi Tirastittam, Suppara Charoenpoom

Abstract:

Nowadays the asynchronous learning has granted the permission to the anywhere and anything learning via the technology and E-media which give the learner more convenient. This research is about the design of the blended and online learning for the asynchronous learning of the process management subject in order to create the prototype of this subject asynchronous learning which will create the easiness and increase capability in the learning. The pattern of learning is the integration between the in-class learning and online learning via the internet. This research is mainly focused on the online learning and the online learning can be divided into 5 parts which are virtual classroom, online content, collaboration, assessment and reference material. After the system design was finished, it was evaluated and tested by 5 experts in blended learning design and 10 students which the user’s satisfaction level is good. The result is as good as the assumption so the system can be used in the process management subject for a real usage.

Keywords: Blended Learning, Asynchronous Learning, Design, Process Management.

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2060 E-Learning Management Systems General Framework

Authors: Hamed Fawareh

Abstract:

The recent development in learning technologies leads to emerge many learning management systems (LMS). In this study, we concentrate on the specifications and characteristics of LMSs. Furthermore, this paper emphasizes on the feature of e-learning management systems. The features take on the account main indicators to assist and evaluate the quality of e-learning systems. The proposed indicators based of ten dimensions.

Keywords: E-Learning, System Requirement, Social Requirement, Learning Management System.

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2059 Effect of Progressive Type-I Right Censoring on Bayesian Statistical Inference of Simple Step–Stress Acceleration Life Testing Plan under Weibull Life Distribution

Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

Abstract:

This paper discusses the effects of using progressive Type-I right censoring on the design of the Simple Step Accelerated Life testing using Bayesian approach for Weibull life products under the assumption of cumulative exposure model. The optimization criterion used in this paper is to minimize the expected pre-posterior variance of the Pth percentile time of failures. The model variables are the stress changing time and the stress value for the first step. A comparison between the conventional and the progressive Type-I right censoring is provided. The results have shown that the progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of testing on the expense of the test precision when the sample size is small. Moreover, the results have shown that using strong priors or large sample size reduces the sensitivity of the test precision to the censoring proportion. Hence, the progressive Type-I right censoring is recommended in these cases as progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of the test and doesn't affect the precision of the test a lot. Moreover, the results have shown that using direct or indirect priors affects the precision of the test.

Keywords: Reliability, Accelerated life testing, Cumulative exposure model, Bayesian estimation, Progressive Type-I censoring, Weibull distribution.

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2058 Development of Multimedia Learning Application for Mastery Learning Style: A Graduated Difficulty Strategy

Authors: Nur Azlina Mohamed Mokmin, Mona Masood

Abstract:

Guided by the theory of learning styles, this study is based on the development of a multimedia learning application for students with mastery learning style. The learning material was developed by applying a graduated difficulty learning strategy. Algebra was chosen as the learning topic for this application. The effectiveness of this application in helping students learn is measured by giving a pre- and post-test. The result shows that students who learn using the learning material that matches their preferred learning style perform better than the students with a non-personalized learning material.

Keywords: Algebraic Fractions, Graduated Difficulty, Mastery Learning Style, Multimedia.

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2057 Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques for Single Imputation on Audiograms

Authors: Sarah Beaver, Renee Bryce

Abstract:

Audiograms detect hearing impairment, but missing values pose problems. This work explores imputations in an attempt to improve accuracy. This work implements Linear Regression, Lasso, Linear Support Vector Regression, Bayesian Ridge, K Nearest Neighbors (KNN), and Random Forest machine learning techniques to impute audiogram frequencies ranging from 125 Hz to 8000 Hz. The data contain patients who had or were candidates for cochlear implants. Accuracy is compared across two different Nested Cross-Validation k values. Over 4000 audiograms were used from 800 unique patients. Additionally, training on data combines and compares left and right ear audiograms versus single ear side audiograms. The accuracy achieved using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values for the best models for Random Forest ranges from 4.74 to 6.37. The R2 values for the best models for Random Forest ranges from .91 to .96. The accuracy achieved using RMSE values for the best models for KNN ranges from 5.00 to 7.72. The R2 values for the best models for KNN ranges from .89 to .95. The best imputation models received R2 between .89 to .96 and RMSE values less than 8dB. We also show that the accuracy of classification predictive models performed better with our imputation models versus constant imputations by a two percent increase.

Keywords: Machine Learning, audiograms, data imputations, single imputations.

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2056 An Evolutionary Statistical Learning Theory

Authors: Sung-Hae Jun, Kyung-Whan Oh

Abstract:

Statistical learning theory was developed by Vapnik. It is a learning theory based on Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension. It also has been used in learning models as good analytical tools. In general, a learning theory has had several problems. Some of them are local optima and over-fitting problems. As well, statistical learning theory has same problems because the kernel type, kernel parameters, and regularization constant C are determined subjectively by the art of researchers. So, we propose an evolutionary statistical learning theory to settle the problems of original statistical learning theory. Combining evolutionary computing into statistical learning theory, our theory is constructed. We verify improved performances of an evolutionary statistical learning theory using data sets from KDD cup.

Keywords: Evolutionary computing, Local optima, Over-fitting, Statistical learning theory

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2055 An Ontology for Smart Learning Environments in Music Education

Authors: Konstantinos Sofianos, Michail Stefanidakis

Abstract:

Nowadays, despite the great advances in technology, most educational frameworks lack a strong educational design basis. E-learning has become prevalent, but it faces various challenges such as student isolation and lack of quality in the learning process. An intelligent learning system provides a student with educational material according to their learning background and learning preferences. It records full information about the student, such as demographic information, learning styles, and academic performance. This information allows the system to be fully adapted to the student’s needs. In this paper, we propose a framework and an ontology for music education, consisting of the learner model and all elements of the learning process (learning objects, teaching methods, learning activities, assessment). This framework can be integrated into an intelligent learning system and used for music education in schools for the development of professional skills and beyond.

Keywords: Intelligent learning systems, e-learning, music education, ontology, semantic web.

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2054 On Bayesian Analysis of Failure Rate under Topp Leone Distribution using Complete and Censored Samples

Authors: N. Feroze, M. Aslam

Abstract:

The article is concerned with analysis of failure rate (shape parameter) under the Topp Leone distribution using a Bayesian framework. Different loss functions and a couple of noninformative priors have been assumed for posterior estimation. The posterior predictive distributions have also been derived. A simulation study has been carried to compare the performance of different estimators. A real life example has been used to illustrate the applicability of the results obtained. The findings of the study suggest  that the precautionary loss function based on Jeffreys prior and singly type II censored samples can effectively be employed to obtain the Bayes estimate of the failure rate under Topp Leone distribution.

Keywords: loss functions, type II censoring, posterior distribution, Bayes estimators.

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2053 Ontology Development of e-Learning Moodle for Social Learning Network Analysis

Authors: Norazah Yusof, Andi Besse Firdausiah Mansur

Abstract:

Social learning network analysis has drawn attention for most researcher on e-learning research domain. This is due to the fact that it has the capability to identify the behavior of student during their social interaction inside e-learning. Normally, the social network analysis (SNA) is treating the students' interaction merely as node and edge with less meaning. This paper focuses on providing an ontology structure of e-learning Moodle that can enrich the relationships among students, as well as between the students and the teacher. This ontology structure brings great benefit to the future development of e-learning system.

Keywords: Ontology, e-learning, © Learning Network, Moodle.

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2052 Bayesian Network Based Intelligent Pediatric System

Authors: Jagmohan Mago, Parvinder S. Sandhu, Neeru Chawla

Abstract:

In this paper, a Bayesian Network (BN) based system is presented for providing clinical decision support to healthcare practitioners in rural or remote areas of India for young infants or children up to the age of 5 years. The government is unable to appoint child specialists in rural areas because of inadequate number of available pediatricians. It leads to a high Infant Mortality Rate (IMR). In such a scenario, Intelligent Pediatric System provides a realistic solution. The prototype of an intelligent system has been developed that involves a knowledge component called an Intelligent Pediatric Assistant (IPA); and User Agents (UA) along with their Graphical User Interfaces (GUI). The GUI of UA provides the interface to the healthcare practitioner for submitting sign-symptoms and displaying the expert opinion as suggested by IPA. Depending upon the observations, the IPA decides the diagnosis and the treatment plan. The UA and IPA form client-server architecture for knowledge sharing.

Keywords: Network, Based Intelligent, Pediatric System

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2051 Dynamic Bayesian Networks Modeling for Inferring Genetic Regulatory Networks by Search Strategy: Comparison between Greedy Hill Climbing and MCMC Methods

Authors: Huihai Wu, Xiaohui Liu

Abstract:

Using Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) to model genetic regulatory networks from gene expression data is one of the major paradigms for inferring the interactions among genes. Averaging a collection of models for predicting network is desired, rather than relying on a single high scoring model. In this paper, two kinds of model searching approaches are compared, which are Greedy hill-climbing Search with Restarts (GSR) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The GSR is preferred in many papers, but there is no such comparison study about which one is better for DBN models. Different types of experiments have been carried out to try to give a benchmark test to these approaches. Our experimental results demonstrated that on average the MCMC methods outperform the GSR in accuracy of predicted network, and having the comparable performance in time efficiency. By proposing the different variations of MCMC and employing simulated annealing strategy, the MCMC methods become more efficient and stable. Apart from comparisons between these approaches, another objective of this study is to investigate the feasibility of using DBN modeling approaches for inferring gene networks from few snapshots of high dimensional gene profiles. Through synthetic data experiments as well as systematic data experiments, the experimental results revealed how the performances of these approaches can be influenced as the target gene network varies in the network size, data size, as well as system complexity.

Keywords: Genetic regulatory network, Dynamic Bayesian network, GSR, MCMC.

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2050 Learner Autonomy Based On Constructivism Learning Theory

Authors: Haiyan Wang

Abstract:

Constuctivism learning theory lays emphasis on the learners' active learning, such as learning initiative, sociality and context. By analyzing the relationship between constructivism learning theory and learner autonomy, this paper explores how to cultivate learners' learner autonomy under the guidance of constructivism learning theory.

Keywords: Constructivism learning theory, learner autonomy, relationship, cultivation.

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2049 Faults Forecasting System

Authors: Hanaa E.Sayed, Hossam A. Gabbar, Shigeji Miyazaki

Abstract:

This paper presents Faults Forecasting System (FFS) that utilizes statistical forecasting techniques in analyzing process variables data in order to forecast faults occurrences. FFS is proposing new idea in detecting faults. Current techniques used in faults detection are based on analyzing the current status of the system variables in order to check if the current status is fault or not. FFS is using forecasting techniques to predict future timing for faults before it happens. Proposed model is applying subset modeling strategy and Bayesian approach in order to decrease dimensionality of the process variables and improve faults forecasting accuracy. A practical experiment, designed and implemented in Okayama University, Japan, is implemented, and the comparison shows that our proposed model is showing high forecasting accuracy and BEFORE-TIME.

Keywords: Bayesian Techniques, Faults Detection, Forecasting techniques, Multivariate Analysis.

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2048 Unsupervised Segmentation by Hidden Markov Chain with Bi-dimensional Observed Process

Authors: Abdelali Joumad, Abdelaziz Nasroallah

Abstract:

In unsupervised segmentation context, we propose a bi-dimensional hidden Markov chain model (X,Y) that we adapt to the image segmentation problem. The bi-dimensional observed process Y = (Y 1, Y 2) is such that Y 1 represents the noisy image and Y 2 represents a noisy supplementary information on the image, for example a noisy proportion of pixels of the same type in a neighborhood of the current pixel. The proposed model can be seen as a competitive alternative to the Hilbert-Peano scan. We propose a bayesian algorithm to estimate parameters of the considered model. The performance of this algorithm is globally favorable, compared to the bi-dimensional EM algorithm through numerical and visual data.

Keywords: Image segmentation, Hidden Markov chain with a bi-dimensional observed process, Peano-Hilbert scan, Bayesian approach, MCMC methods, Bi-dimensional EM algorithm.

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2047 A Reasoning Method of Cyber-Attack Attribution Based on Threat Intelligence

Authors: Li Qiang, Yang Ze-Ming, Liu Bao-Xu, Jiang Zheng-Wei

Abstract:

With the increasing complexity of cyberspace security, the cyber-attack attribution has become an important challenge of the security protection systems. The difficult points of cyber-attack attribution were forced on the problems of huge data handling and key data missing. According to this situation, this paper presented a reasoning method of cyber-attack attribution based on threat intelligence. The method utilizes the intrusion kill chain model and Bayesian network to build attack chain and evidence chain of cyber-attack on threat intelligence platform through data calculation, analysis and reasoning. Then, we used a number of cyber-attack events which we have observed and analyzed to test the reasoning method and demo system, the result of testing indicates that the reasoning method can provide certain help in cyber-attack attribution.

Keywords: Reasoning, Bayesian networks, cyber-attack attribution, kill chain, threat intelligence.

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2046 Collaborative Web-Based E-learning Environment for Information Security Curriculum

Authors: Wei Hu, Tianzhou Chen, Qingsong Shi

Abstract:

In recent years, the development of e-learning is very rapid. E-learning is an attractive and efficient way for computer education. Student interaction and collaboration also plays an important role in e-learning. In this paper, a collaborative web-based e-learning environment is presented. A wide range of interactive and collaborative methods are integrated into a web-based environment. This e-learning environment is designed for information security curriculum.

Keywords: E-learning, information Security, curriculum, web-based environment.

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2045 How to Use E-Learning to Increase Job Satisfaction in Large Commercial Bank in Bangkok

Authors: Teerada Apibunyopas, Nithinant Thammakoranonta

Abstract:

Many organizations bring e-Learning to use as a tool in their training and human development department. It is getting more popular because it is easy to access to get knowledge all the time and also it provides a rich content, which can develop the employees’ skill efficiently. This study is focused on the factors that affect using e-Learning efficiently, so it will make job satisfaction increasing. The questionnaires were sent to employees in large commercial banks, which use e-Learning located in Bangkok, the results from multiple linear regression analysis showed that employee’s characteristics, characteristics of e-Learning, learning and growth have influence on job satisfaction.

Keywords: e-Learning, Job Satisfaction, Learning and growth.

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2044 Adaptive Network Intrusion Detection Learning: Attribute Selection and Classification

Authors: Dewan Md. Farid, Jerome Darmont, Nouria Harbi, Nguyen Huu Hoa, Mohammad Zahidur Rahman

Abstract:

In this paper, a new learning approach for network intrusion detection using naïve Bayesian classifier and ID3 algorithm is presented, which identifies effective attributes from the training dataset, calculates the conditional probabilities for the best attribute values, and then correctly classifies all the examples of training and testing dataset. Most of the current intrusion detection datasets are dynamic, complex and contain large number of attributes. Some of the attributes may be redundant or contribute little for detection making. It has been successfully tested that significant attribute selection is important to design a real world intrusion detection systems (IDS). The purpose of this study is to identify effective attributes from the training dataset to build a classifier for network intrusion detection using data mining algorithms. The experimental results on KDD99 benchmark intrusion detection dataset demonstrate that this new approach achieves high classification rates and reduce false positives using limited computational resources.

Keywords: Attributes selection, Conditional probabilities, information gain, network intrusion detection.

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2043 Learners- Perceptions of Mobile Devices for Learning in Higher Education - Towards a Mobile Learning Pedagogical Framework

Authors: Conradie, P.W., Lombard, A., Moller, M.

Abstract:

The dramatic effect of information technology on society is undeniable. In education, it is evident in the use of terms like active learning, blended learning, electronic learning and mobile learning (ubiquitous learning). This study explores the perceptions of 54 learners in a higher education institution regarding the use of mobile devices in a third year module. Using semi-structured interviews, it was found that mobile devices had a positive impact on learner motivation, engagement and enjoyment. It also improved the consistency of learning material, and the convenience and flexibility (anywhere, anytime) of learning. User-interfacelimitation, bandwidth and cognitive overload, however, were of concern. The use of cloud based resources like Youtube and Google Docs, through mobile devices, positively influenced learner perceptions, making them prosumers (both consumers and producers) of education content.

Keywords: Active learning, education, mobile learning, pedagogy.

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2042 E-learning and m-learning: Africa-s Search for a Suitable Concept in the Era of Cloud Computing?

Authors: J. Seke Mboungou Mouyabi

Abstract:

This paper is an exploration of the conceptual confusion between E-learning and M-learning particularly in Africa. Section I provides a background to the development of E-learning and M-learning. Section II focuses on the conceptual analysis as it applies to Africa. It is with an investigative and expansive mind that this paper is elaborated to respond to a profound question of the suitability of the concepts in a particular era in Africa. The aim of this paper is therefore to shed light on which concept best suits the unique situation of Africa in the era of cloud computing.

Keywords: African Concept, Cloud computing, E-learning, Mlearning

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2041 Enhancing Learning Experiences in Outcomebased Higher Education: A Step towards Student Centered Learning

Authors: K. Kumpas

Abstract:

Bologna process has influenced enhancing studentcentered learning in Estonian higher education since 2009, but there is no information about what helps or hinders students to achieve learning outcomes and how quality of student-centered learning might be improved. The purpose of this study is to analyze two questions from outcome-based course evaluation questionnaire which is used in Estonian Entrepreneurship University of Applied Sciences. In this qualitative research, 384 students from 22 different courses described what helped and hindered them to achieve learning outcomes. The analysis showed that the aspects that hinder students to achieve learning outcomes are mostly personal: time management, family and personal matters, motivation and non-academic activities. The results indicate that students- learning is commonly supported by school, where teacher, teaching and characteristics of teaching methods help mostly to achieve learning outcomes, also learning material, practical assignments and independent study was brought up as one of the key elements.

Keywords: Learning outcomes, learning quality, student-centered learning

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2040 Development of Mobile EEF Learning System (MEEFLS) for Mobile Learning Implementation in Kolej Poly-Tech MARA (KPTM)

Authors: M. E. Marwan, A. R. Madar, N. Fuad

Abstract:

Mobile learning (m-learning) is a new method in teaching and learning process which combines technology of mobile device with learning materials. It can enhance student's engagement in learning activities and facilitate them to access the learning materials at anytime and anywhere. In Kolej Poly-Tech Mara (KPTM), this method is seen as an important effort in teaching practice and to improve student learning performance. The aim of this paper is to discuss the development of m-learning application called Mobile EEF Learning System (MEEFLS) to be implemented for Electric and Electronic Fundamentals course using Flash, XML (Extensible Markup Language) and J2ME (Java 2 micro edition). System Development Life Cycle (SDLC) was used as an application development approach. It has three modules in this application such as notes or course material, exercises and video. MEELFS development is seen as a tool or a pilot test for m-learning in KPTM.

Keywords: Flash, mobile device, mobile learning, teaching and learning, SDLC, XML.

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2039 Grid Learning; Computer Grid Joins to e- Learning

Authors: A. Nassiry, A. Kardan

Abstract:

According to development of communications and web-based technologies in recent years, e-Learning has became very important for everyone and is seen as one of most dynamic teaching methods. Grid computing is a pattern for increasing of computing power and storage capacity of a system and is based on hardware and software resources in a network with common purpose. In this article we study grid architecture and describe its different layers. In this way, we will analyze grid layered architecture. Then we will introduce a new suitable architecture for e-Learning which is based on grid network, and for this reason we call it Grid Learning Architecture. Various sections and layers of suggested architecture will be analyzed; especially grid middleware layer that has key role. This layer is heart of grid learning architecture and, in fact, regardless of this layer, e-Learning based on grid architecture will not be feasible.

Keywords: Distributed learning, Grid Learning, Grid network, SCORM standard.

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2038 Impact of Exchange Rate on Macroeconomic Indicators

Authors: Aleksandre Ergeshidze

Abstract:

The exchange rate is a pivotal pricing instrument that simultaneously impacts various components of the economy. Depreciation of nominal exchange rate is export promoting, which might be a desired export-led growth policy, and particularly critical to closing-down the widening current account imbalance. However, negative effects resulting from high dollarization and high share of imported intermediate inputs can outweigh positive effect. The aim of this research is to quantify impact of change in nominal exchange rate and test contractionary depreciation hypothesis on Georgian economy using structural and Bayesian vector autoregression. According to the acquired results, appreciation of nominal exchange rate is expected to decrease inflation, monetary policy rate, interest rate on domestic currency loans and economic growth in the medium run; however, impact on economic growth in the short run is statistically not significant.

Keywords: Bayesian vector autoregression, contractionary depreciation, dollarization, nominal exchange rate, structural vector autoregression.

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2037 Enhancement of Learning Style in Kolej Poly-Tech MARA (KPTM) via Mobile EEF Learning System (MEEFLS)

Authors: M. E. Marwan, A. R. Madar, N. Fuad

Abstract:

Mobile communication provides access to the outside world without borders everywhere and at any time. The learning method that related to mobile communication technology is known as mobile learning (M-learning). It is a method that communicates learning materials with mobile device technology. The purpose of this method is to increase the interest in learning among students and assist them in obtaining learning materials at Kolej Poly-Tech MARA (KPTM) in order to improve the student’s performance in their study and to encourage educators to diversify the teaching practices. This paper discusses the student’s awareness for enhancement of learning style using mobile technologies and their readiness to apply the elements of mobile learning in learning to improve performance and interest in learning among students. An application called Mobile EEF Learning System (MEEFLS) has been developed as a tool to be used as a pilot test in KPTM.

Keywords: Awareness, MEEFLS, mobile learning, readiness.

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2036 Challenges and Opportunities of Cloud-Based E-Learning Systems

Authors: Kashif Laeeq, Zubair A. Shaikh

Abstract:

The paradigm of education is drastically changing from conventional to e-learning model. Due to ease of learning with various other benefits, several educational institutions are adopting the e-learning models. Some institutions are still willing to transform their educational system on to e-learning, but due to limited resources, they are still compromising on the old traditional system. The cloud computing could be one of the best solutions to overcome this problem by providing hardware, software, and infrastructure resources with cost efficient manner. The adoption of cloud computing in education will bring revolution in this paradigm. This paper introduces various positive features of e-learning and presents a way how cloud computing technology can be provisioned e-learning model. This paper also investigates the numerous challenges and opportunities that would be observed in cloud computing adoption in e-learning domain. The concept and knowledge present in this paper may create a new direction of research in the domain of cloud-based e-learning.

Keywords: Cloud-based e-learning, e-learning, cloud computing application, smart learning.

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2035 Enhancing Predictive Accuracy in Pharmaceutical Sales Through an Ensemble Kernel Gaussian Process Regression Approach

Authors: Shahin Mirshekari, Mohammadreza Moradi, Hossein Jafari, Mehdi Jafari, Mohammad Ensaf

Abstract:

This research employs Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with an ensemble kernel, integrating Exponential Squared, Revised Matérn, and Rational Quadratic kernels to analyze pharmaceutical sales data. Bayesian optimization was used to identify optimal kernel weights: 0.76 for Exponential Squared, 0.21 for Revised Matérn, and 0.13 for Rational Quadratic. The ensemble kernel demonstrated superior performance in predictive accuracy, achieving an R² score near 1.0, and significantly lower values in MSE, MAE, and RMSE. These findings highlight the efficacy of ensemble kernels in GPR for predictive analytics in complex pharmaceutical sales datasets.

Keywords: Gaussian Process Regression, Ensemble Kernels, Bayesian Optimization, Pharmaceutical Sales Analysis, Time Series Forecasting, Data Analysis.

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2034 Real-Time Testing of Steel Strip Welds based on Bayesian Decision Theory

Authors: Julio Molleda, Daniel F. García, Juan C. Granda, Francisco J. Suárez

Abstract:

One of the main trouble in a steel strip manufacturing line is the breakage of whatever weld carried out between steel coils, that are used to produce the continuous strip to be processed. A weld breakage results in a several hours stop of the manufacturing line. In this process the damages caused by the breakage must be repaired. After the reparation and in order to go on with the production it will be necessary a restarting process of the line. For minimizing this problem, a human operator must inspect visually and manually each weld in order to avoid its breakage during the manufacturing process. The work presented in this paper is based on the Bayesian decision theory and it presents an approach to detect, on real-time, steel strip defective welds. This approach is based on quantifying the tradeoffs between various classification decisions using probability and the costs that accompany such decisions.

Keywords: Classification, Pattern Recognition, ProbabilisticReasoning, Statistical Data Analysis.

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