Search results for: economy effectiveness

Authors: Naohiko Honma, Kojiro Suzuki

Abstract:

This paper proposes the concept of aerocapture with aerodynamic-environment-adaptive variable geometry flexible aeroshell that vehicle deploys. The flexible membrane is composed of thin-layer film or textile as its aeroshell in order to solve some problems obstructing realization of aerocapture technique. Multi-objective optimization study is conducted to investigate solutions and derive design guidelines. As a result, solutions which can avoid aerodynamic heating and enlarge the corridor width up to 10% are obtained successfully, so that the effectiveness of this concept can be demonstrated. The deformation-use optimum solution changes its drag coefficient from 1.6 to 1.1, along with the change in dynamic pressure. Moreover, optimization results show that deformation-use solution requires the membrane for which upper temperature limit and strain limit are more than 700 K and 120%, respectively, and elasticity (Young-s modulus) is of order of 106 Pa.

Keywords: Aerocapture, flexible aeroshell, optimization, response surface methodology.

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Authors: Tomohiro Hachino, Hitoshi Takata, Seiji Fukushima, Yasutaka Igarashi

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This paper presents a Gaussian process model-based short-term electric load forecasting. The Gaussian process model is a nonparametric model and the output of the model has Gaussian distribution with mean and variance. The multiple Gaussian process models as every hour ahead predictors are used to forecast future electric load demands up to 24 hours ahead in accordance with the direct forecasting approach. The separable least-squares approach that combines the linear least-squares method and genetic algorithm is applied to train these Gaussian process models. Simulation results are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed electric load forecasting.

Keywords: Direct method, electric load forecasting, Gaussian process model, genetic algorithm, separable least-squares method.

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Authors: Vivek Agrawal, Vikas Tripathi, Nitin Seth

Abstract:

This study examines several critical dimensions of eservice quality overlooked in the existing literature and proposes a model and instrument framework for measuring customer perceived e-service quality in the banking sector. The initial design was derived from a pool of instrument dimensions and their items from the existing literature review by content analysis. Based on focused group discussion, nine dimensions were extracted. An exploratory factor analysis approach was applied to data from a survey of 323 respondents. The instrument has been designed specifically for the banking sector. Research data was collected from bank customers who use electronic banking in a developing economy. A nine-factor instrument has been proposed to measure the e-service quality. The instrument has been checked for reliability. The validity and sample place limited the applicability of the instrument across economies and service categories. Future research must be conducted to check the validity. This instrument can help bankers in developing economies like India to measure the e-service quality and make improvements. The present study offers a systematic procedure that provides insights on to the conceptual and empirical comprehension of customer perceived e-service quality and its constituents.

Keywords: Testing, instrument, e-service quality, factor analysis.

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Authors: Maizatul A. Musa

Abstract:

Not many studies have been undertaken on shareholder activism in emerging economies, including Malaysia. Shareholder activism in emerging economies is on the rise. This paper seeks to comprehend the elements of this activism that are unique to Malaysia, specifically with respect to how the agency problem is controlled through shareholder activism in improving corporate governance practices within target companies. Through shareholder activism, shareholders make contact with a target company to voice their dissatisfaction, suggestions, or recommendations. This paper utilises agency theory to explain institutional shareholder activism. This theory has been extensively used within literature on corporate governance with regards to shareholder activism. The effectiveness of shareholder activism in improving corporate governance will be examined as well. This research provides a further understanding of shareholder activism in emerging economies, such as Malaysia; this research also has the potential to enhance shareholder activism and corporate governance practices in general.

Keywords: Agency Theory, Corporate Governance, Emerging Economies, Institutional Shareholder Activism, Malaysia.

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Authors: Elizabeth M. Hodge, M.H.N. Tabrizi, Mary A. Farwell, Karl L. Wuensch

Abstract:

Delivering course material via a virtual environment is beneficial to today-s students because it offers the interactivity, real-time interaction and social presence that students of all ages have come to accept in our gaming rich community. It is essential that the Net Generation also known as Generation Why, have exposure to learning communities that encompass interactivity to form social and educational connections. As student and professor become interconnected through collaboration and interaction in a virtual learning space, relationships develop and students begin to take on an individual identity. With this in mind the research project was developed to investigate the use of virtual environments on student satisfaction and the effectiveness of course delivery. Furthermore, the project was designed to integrate both interactive (real-time) classes conducted in the Virtual Reality (VR) environment while also creating archived VR sessions for student use in retaining and reviewing course content.

Keywords: Virtual Reality, Social Presence, Virtual Environments, Course Delivery Methods.

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Authors: Liming Chen, Baoxin Xiu, Zhaoyun Ding, Bin Liu, Xianqiang Zhu

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In the era of big data, public investors are faced with more complicated information related to investment decisions than ever before. To survive in the fierce competition, it has become increasingly urgent for investors to combine multi-source knowledge and evaluate the companies’ true value efficiently. For this, a rule-based ontology reasoning method is proposed to support steel companies’ value assessment. Considering the delay in financial disclosure and based on cost-benefit analysis, this paper introduces the supply chain enterprises financial analysis and constructs the ontology model used to value the value of steel company. In addition, domain knowledge is formally expressed with the help of Web Ontology Language (OWL) language and SWRL (Semantic Web Rule Language) rules. Finally, a case study on a steel company in China proved the effectiveness of the method we proposed.

Keywords: Financial ontology, steel company, supply chain, ontology reasoning.

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Authors: Roslina Ibrahim, Azizah Jaafar

Abstract:

Educational games (EG) seem to have lots of potential due to digital games popularity and preferences of our younger generations of learners. However, most studies focus on game design and its effectiveness while little has been known about the factors that can affect users to accept or to reject EG for their learning. User acceptance research try to understand the determinants of information systems (IS) adoption among users by investigating both systems factors and users factors. Upon the lack of knowledge on acceptance factors for educational games, we seek to understand the issue. This study proposed a model of acceptance factors based on Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT). We use original model (performance expectancy, effort expectancy and social influence) together with two new determinants (learning opportunities and enjoyment). We will also investigate the effect of gender and gaming experience that moderate the proposed factors.

Keywords: educational games, games acceptance, user acceptance model, UTAUT

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Authors: Rashika Sharma

Abstract:

The campuses at tertiary institutes can act as a social environment for peer to peer connections. However, socialization is not the only aspect that campuses provide. The campus can act as a learning environment that has often been termed as the campus curriculum. Many tertiary institutes have taken steps to make their campus a ‘green campus’ whereby initiatives have been taken to reduce their impact on the environment. However, as visible as these initiatives are, it is debatable whether these have any effect on students’ and their understanding of sustainable campus operations. Therefore, research was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of sustainable campus operations in raising students’ awareness of sustainability. Students at two vocational institutes participated in this interpretive research with data collected through surveys and focus groups. The findings indicated that majority of vocational education students remained oblivious of sustainability initiatives on campuses.

Keywords: Education for Sustainability, campus learning, social learning, vocational education.

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Authors: V. D. Thi, M. Li, M. Khelifa, M. El Ganaoui, Y. Rogaume

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This paper presents a two-dimensional model to study the heat and moisture transfer through porous building materials. Dynamic and static coupled models of heat and moisture transfer in porous material under low temperature are presented and the coupled models together with variable initial and boundary conditions have been considered in an analytical way and using the finite element method. The resulting coupled model is converted to two nonlinear partial differential equations, which is then numerically solved by an implicit iterative scheme. The numerical results of temperature and moisture potential changes are compared with the experimental measurements available in the literature. Predicted results demonstrate validation of the theoretical model and effectiveness of the developed numerical algorithms. It is expected to provide useful information for the porous building material design based on heat and moisture transfer model.

Keywords: Finite element method, heat transfer, moisture transfer, porous materials, wood.

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Authors: Saeid Fazli, Hadis Askarifar, Maryam Sheikh Shoaie

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Human identification at a distance has recently gained growing interest from computer vision researchers. Gait recognition aims essentially to address this problem by identifying people based on the way they walk [1]. Gait recognition has 3 steps. The first step is preprocessing, the second step is feature extraction and the third one is classification. This paper focuses on the classification step that is essential to increase the CCR (Correct Classification Rate). Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) is used in this work. Neural Networks imitate the human brain to perform intelligent tasks [3].They can represent complicated relationships between input and output and acquire knowledge about these relationships directly from the data [2]. In this paper we apply MLP NN for 11 views in our database and compare the CCR values for these views. Experiments are performed with the NLPR databases, and the effectiveness of the proposed method for gait recognition is demonstrated.

Keywords: Human motion analysis, biometrics, gait recognition, principal component analysis, MLP neural network.

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Authors: Kelly R. Mazzer, Debra J. Rickwood, Thea Vanags

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Young people have a high prevalence of mental health problems, yet tend not to seek help. Trusted adults in young people-s lives, such as teachers and sports coaches, can make a major positive contribution to the mental health of young people. Teachers and sports coaches may be in a position to be effective in supporting young people-s mental health through promotion, prevention and early intervention. This study reports findings from interviews with 21 teachers and 13 sports coaches of young people aged 12 to 18 in Canberra, Australia, regarding their perceptions of the relevance and effectiveness of their role in supporting young people-s mental health. Both teachers and coaches perceived having influential but slightly different roles to play in supporting mental health. There may be potential to elevate the influence of teachers and coaches as sources of support for young people and their mental health care.

Keywords: Early intervention, mental health promotion, coaches, teachers, young people

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Authors: Yanhui Zhang, Wenyu Yang

Abstract:

One of the difficulties of the vibration-based damage identification methods is the nonuniqueness of the results of damage identification. The different damage locations and severity may cause the identical response signal, which is even more severe for detection of the multiple damage. This paper proposes a new strategy for damage detection to avoid this nonuniqueness. This strategy firstly determines the approximates damage area based on the statistical pattern recognition method using the dynamic strain signal measured by the distributed fiber Bragg grating, and then accurately evaluates the damage information based on the Bayesian model updating method using the experimental modal data. The stochastic simulation method is then used to compute the high-dimensional integral in the Bayesian problem. Finally, an experiment of the plate structure, simulating one part of mechanical structure, is used to verify the effectiveness of this approach.

Keywords: Bayesian method, damage detection, fiber Bragg grating, structural health monitoring.

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Authors: S. Balaji, M. Rajaram, Y. Harold Robinson, E. Golden Julie

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Delay Tolerant Networks (DTN) which have sufficient state information include trajectory and contact information, to protect routing efficiency. However, state information is dynamic and hard to obtain without a global and/or long-term collection process. To deal with these problems, the internal social features of each node are introduced in the network to perform the routing process. This type of application is motivated from several human contact networks where people contact each other more frequently if they have more social features in common. Two unique processes were developed for this process; social feature extraction and multipath routing. The routing method then becomes a hypercube–based feature matching process. Furthermore, the effectiveness of multipath routing is evaluated and compared to that of single-path routing.

Keywords: Delay tolerant networks, entropy, human contact networks, hyper cubes, multipath Routing, social features.

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Authors: M. Zerikat, M. Bendjebbar, N. Benouzza

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In this paper, a novel approach for robust trajectory tracking of induction motor drive is presented. By combining variable structure systems theory with fuzzy logic concept and neural network techniques, a new algorithm is developed. Fuzzy logic was used for the adaptation of the learning algorithm to improve the robustness of learning and operating of the neural network. The developed control algorithm is robust to parameter variations and external influences. It also assures precise trajectory tracking with the prescribed dynamics. The algorithm was verified by simulation and the results obtained demonstrate the effectiveness of the designed controller of induction motor drives which considered as highly non linear dynamic complex systems and variable characteristics over the operating conditions.

Keywords: Induction motor, fuzzy-logic control, neural network control, indirect field oriented control.

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Authors: A. Bárbara Cattozatto Fortunato, D. de Lucca Soave, E. Pinheiro de Mello, M. Piasentini Oliva, V. Tavares de Moraes, G. Wolf Lebrão, D. Fernandes Parra, S. Marraccini Giampietri Lebrão

Abstract:

Due to increasing environmental pressure for biodegradable products, especially in polymeric materials, in order to meet the demands of the biological cycles of the circular economy, new materials have been developed as a sustainability strategy. This study proposes a composite material developed from the biodegradable polymer PLA Ecovio® (polylactic acid - PLA) with natural sisal fibers, where the soybean ester was used as a plasticizer, which can aid in adhesion between the materials and fibers, making the most attractive final composite from an environmental point of view. The composites were obtained by extrusion. The materials tests were produced and submitted to biodegradation tests. Through the biodegradation tests, it can be seen that the biodegradable polymer composition with 5% sisal fiber presented about 12.4% more biodegradability compared to the polymer without fiber addition. It has also been found that the plasticizer was not a compatible with fibers and the polymer. Finally, fibers help to anticipate the decomposition process of the material when subjected to conditions of a landfill. Therefore, its intrinsic properties are not affected during its use, only the biodegradation process begins after its exposure to landfill conditions.

Keywords: Biocomposites, sisal, polylactic acid, PLA.

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Authors: Waleed Maqableh, Ahmad Al-Hamad, Manjit Sidhu

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Augmented reality (AR) technology has the capability to provide many benefits in the field of education as a modern technology which aided learning and improved the learning experience. This paper evaluates AR based application with multiple markers interaction technique (touch-to-print) which is designed for analyzing the kinematics of 4BL mechanism in mechanical engineering. The application is termed as AR-4BL-MAST and it allows the users to touch the symbols on a paper in natural way of interaction. The evaluation of this application was performed with mechanical engineering students and human–computer interaction (HCI) experts to test its effectiveness as a tangible user interface application where the statistical results show its ability as an interaction technique, and it gives the users more freedom in interaction with the virtual mechanical objects.

Keywords: Augmented reality, engineering, four-bar linkage, Multimedia, user interface, visualization.

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Authors: Pallav Roxy, Durga Toshniwal

Abstract:

Clustering unstructured text documents is an important issue in data mining community and has a number of applications such as document archive filtering, document organization and topic detection and subject tracing. In the real world, some of the already clustered documents may not be of importance while new documents of more significance may evolve. Most of the work done so far in clustering unstructured text documents overlooks this aspect of clustering. This paper, addresses this issue by using the Fading Function. The unstructured text documents are clustered. And for each cluster a statistics structure called Cluster Profile (CP) is implemented. The cluster profile incorporates the Fading Function. This Fading Function keeps an account of the time-dependent importance of the cluster. The work proposes a novel algorithm Clustering n-ary Merge Algorithm (CnMA) for unstructured text documents, that uses Cluster Profile and Fading Function. Experimental results illustrating the effectiveness of the proposed technique are also included.

Keywords: Clustering, Text Mining, Unstructured TextDocuments, Fading Function.

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Authors: Shigeaki Sakurai, Youichi Kitahara, Ryohei Orihara

Abstract:

Sequential mining methods efficiently discover all frequent sequential patterns included in sequential data. These methods use the support, which is the previous criterion that satisfies the Apriori property, to evaluate the frequency. However, the discovered patterns do not always correspond to the interests of analysts, because the patterns are common and the analysts cannot get new knowledge from the patterns. The paper proposes a new criterion, namely, the sequential interestingness, to discover sequential patterns that are more attractive for the analysts. The paper shows that the criterion satisfies the Apriori property and how the criterion is related to the support. Also, the paper proposes an efficient sequential mining method based on the proposed criterion. Lastly, the paper shows the effectiveness of the proposed method by applying the method to two kinds of sequential data.

Keywords: Sequential mining, Support, Confidence, Apriori property

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Authors: M. R. Aghaebrahimi, S. H. Zahiri, M. Amiri

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The necessity of solving multi dimensional complicated scientific problems beside the necessity of several objective functions optimization are the most motive reason of born of artificial intelligence and heuristic methods. In this paper, we introduce a new method for multiobjective optimization based on learning automata. In the proposed method, search space divides into separate hyper-cubes and each cube is considered as an action. After gathering of all objective functions with separate weights, the cumulative function is considered as the fitness function. By the application of all the cubes to the cumulative function, we calculate the amount of amplification of each action and the algorithm continues its way to find the best solutions. In this Method, a lateral memory is used to gather the significant points of each iteration of the algorithm. Finally, by considering the domination factor, pareto front is estimated. Results of several experiments show the effectiveness of this method in comparison with genetic algorithm based method.

Keywords: Function optimization, Multiobjective optimization, Learning automata.

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Authors: Alex Elentukh

Abstract:

The paper is based on data collected from final exams administered during five years teaching the graduate course in software engineering. The visualization instrument with four distinct personas has been used to improve effectiveness of each class. The study offers a plethora of clues toward students' behavioral preferences. Diversity among students (professional background, physical proximity) is too significant to assume a single face of a learner. This is particularly true for a body of on-line graduate students in computer science. Conclusions of the study (each learner is unique and each class is unique) are extrapolated to demystify the notion of an 'average software engineer'. An immediate direction for an educator is to assure a course applies to a wide audience of very different individuals. On another hand, a student should be clear about his/her abilities and preferences - to follow the most effective learning path.

Keywords: K.3.2 computer & information science education, learner profiling, adaptive learning, software engineering.

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Authors: R.Narmatha Banu, D.Devaraj

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This paper presents a genetic algorithm based approach for solving security constrained optimal power flow problem (SCOPF) including FACTS devices. The optimal location of FACTS devices are identified using an index called overload index and the optimal values are obtained using an enhanced genetic algorithm. The optimal allocation by the proposed method optimizes the investment, taking into account its effects on security in terms of the alleviation of line overloads. The proposed approach has been tested on IEEE-30 bus system to show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm for solving the SCOPF problem.

Keywords: Optimal Power Flow, Genetic Algorithm, FlexibleAC transmission system (FACTS) devices, Severity Index (SI), Security Enhancement, Thyristor controlled series capacitor (TCSC).

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Authors: Olga Orynycz, Andrzej Wasiak

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Mathematical model describing energetic efficiency (defined as a ratio of energy obtained in the form of biofuel to the sum of energy inputs necessary to facilitate production) of agricultural subsystem as a function of technological parameters was developed. Production technology is characterized by parameters of machinery, topological characteristics of the plantation as well as transportation routes inside and outside of plantation. The relationship between the energetic efficiency of agricultural and industrial subsystems is also derived. Due to the assumed large area of the individual field, the operations last for several days increasing inter-fields routes because of several returns. The total distance driven outside of the fields is, however, small as compared to the distance driven inside of the fields. This results in small energy consumption during inter-fields transport that, however, causes a substantial decrease of the energetic effectiveness of the whole system.

Keywords: Biofuel, energetic efficiency, EROEI, mathematical modelling, production system.

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Authors: Shigeaki Sakurai, Ken Ueno, Ryohei Orihara

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This paper proposes a method that discovers time series event patterns from textual data with time information. The patterns are composed of sequences of events and each event is extracted from the textual data, where an event is characteristic content included in the textual data such as a company name, an action, and an impression of a customer. The method introduces 7 types of time constraints based on the analysis of the textual data. The method also evaluates these constraints when the frequency of a time series event pattern is calculated. We can flexibly define the time constraints for interesting combinations of events and can discover valid time series event patterns which satisfy these conditions. The paper applies the method to daily business reports collected by a sales force automation system and verifies its effectiveness through numerical experiments.

Keywords: Text mining, sequential mining, time constraints, daily business reports.

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Authors: Peyman Shadman Heidari, Mohammad Khorasani

Abstract:

The principal purpose of this article is to present a new method based on Adaptive Neural Network Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) to generate additional artificial earthquake accelerograms from presented data, which are compatible with specified response spectra. The proposed method uses the learning abilities of ANFIS to develop the knowledge of the inverse mapping from response spectrum to earthquake records. In addition, wavelet packet transform is used to decompose specified earthquake records and then ANFISs are trained to relate the response spectrum of records to their wavelet packet coefficients. Finally, an interpretive example is presented which uses an ensemble of recorded accelerograms to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: Adaptive Neural Network Fuzzy Inference System, Wavelet Packet Transform, Response Spectrum.

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Authors: Etty Riani, Endang Gumbira-Said, Kashwar Syamsu, Kustiariyah, Kaseno, Muhammad Reza Cordova

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Sandfish is one of marine biota that has a biomedicine (bioactive compound) potency. People in Gorontalo Province, Indonesia, have been sandfish as an aphrodisiac for men as it is believed that sandfish has a steroid hormone potency. This research aims at studying using the steroid hormone potency from every fraction of sandfish (meat and innards) and its activity of male reproduction (rooster) as an aphrodisiac. Steroid extraction was done using Touchstone and Kasparow method, and then it was utilized to study the effectiveness of bioassay of rooster. This research had five treatments and was done in complete randomized design. Based on Lieberman-Burchard and bioassay test, the author found that sandfish extract contains steroid hormone. Sandfish extract was able to enrich testosterone and cholesterol concentration in blood serum; fastening secondary reproduction characteristics of the rooster, and increasing growth as well as improving rooster’s comb. Therefore, sandfish steroid is potential to be used as an aphrodisiac for men.

Keywords: Aphrodisiac, sandfish, secondary reproduction characteristic, steroid.

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Authors: Ying Shen, Weihua Zhu

Abstract:

Medical images are important to help identifying different diseases, for example, Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can be used to investigate the brain, spinal cord, bones, joints, breasts, blood vessels, and heart. Image segmentation, in medical image analysis, is usually the first step to find out some characteristics with similar color, intensity or texture so that the diagnosis could be further carried out based on these features. This paper introduces an improved C-means model to segment the MRI images. The model is based on information entropy to evaluate the segmentation results by achieving global optimization. Several contributions are significant. Firstly, Genetic Algorithm (GA) is used for achieving global optimization in this model where fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm (FCMA) is not capable of doing that. Secondly, the information entropy after segmentation is used for measuring the effectiveness of MRI image processing. Experimental results show the outperformance of the proposed model by comparing with traditional approaches.

Keywords: Magnetic Resonance Image, C-means model, image segmentation, information entropy.

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Authors: Engin Yesil, Leon Urbas

Abstract:

Modeling of complex dynamic systems, which are very complicated to establish mathematical models, requires new and modern methodologies that will exploit the existing expert knowledge, human experience and historical data. Fuzzy cognitive maps are very suitable, simple, and powerful tools for simulation and analysis of these kinds of dynamic systems. However, human experts are subjective and can handle only relatively simple fuzzy cognitive maps; therefore, there is a need of developing new approaches for an automated generation of fuzzy cognitive maps using historical data. In this study, a new learning algorithm, which is called Big Bang-Big Crunch, is proposed for the first time in literature for an automated generation of fuzzy cognitive maps from data. Two real-world examples; namely a process control system and radiation therapy process, and one synthetic model are used to emphasize the effectiveness and usefulness of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: Big Bang-Big Crunch optimization, Dynamic Systems, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Learning.

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Authors: A. Shirzadeh Chaleshtari, Sh. Shadrokh

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Renewable and non-renewable resource constraints have been vast studied in theoretical fields of project scheduling problems. However, although cumulative resources are widespread in practical cases, the literature on project scheduling problems subject to these resources is scant. So in order to study this type of resources more, in this paper we use the framework of a resource constrained project scheduling problem (RCPSP) with finish-start precedence relations between activities and subject to the cumulative resources in addition to the renewable resources. We develop a branch and bound algorithm for this problem customizing precedence tree algorithm of RCPSP. We perform extensive experimental analysis on the algorithm to check its effectiveness and performance for solving different instances of the problem in question.

Keywords: Resource constrained project scheduling problem, cumulative resources, branch and bound algorithm, precedence tree.

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Authors: Xu Tao, Yilun Xu, Dingwei Xiang, Yaofei Sun

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The practice of urban planning and construction based on the concept of the “low carbon eco-city” has been universally accepted by the academic community in response to urban issues such as population, resources, environment, and social development. Based on this, the current article first analyzes the concepts of low carbon eco-city, then builds a complex adaptive system (CAS) theory based on Chinese traditional philosophical thinking, and analyzes the adaptive relationship between material and non-material elements. A three-dimensional evaluation model of natural ecology, economic low carbon, and social harmony was constructed. Finally, the construction of a low carbon eco-city index system in Hexi Newtown of Nanjing was used as an example to verify the effectiveness of the research results; this paradigm provides a new way to achieve a low carbon eco-city system.

Keywords: Complex adaptive system, low carbon ecology, index system, model.

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Authors: Maha Hammami, Olfa Benouda Sioud

Abstract:

This study investigates the reliability of management earnings forecasts with reference to these two ingredients: verifiability and neutrality. Specifically, we examine the biasedness (or accuracy) of management earnings forecasts and company specific characteristics that can be associated with accuracy. Based on sample of 102 IPO prospectuses published for admission on NYSE Euronext Paris from 2002 to 2010, we found that these forecasts are on average optimistic and two of the five test variables, earnings variability and financial leverage are significant in explaining ex post bias. Acknowledging the possibility that the bias is the result of the managers’ forecasting behavior, we then examine whether managers decide to under-predict, over-predict or forecast accurately for self-serving purposes. Explicitly, we examine the role of financial distress, operating performance, ownership by insiders and the economy state in influencing managers’ forecasting preferences. We find that managers of distressed firms seem to over-predict future earnings. We also find that when managers are given more stock options, they tend to under-predict future earnings. Finally, we conclude that the management earnings forecasts are affected by an intentional bias due to managers’ forecasting preferences.

Keywords: Intentional bias, Management earnings forecasts, neutrality, verifiability.

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