Search results for: Group process model

Authors: Stefaan Pauwels, Koen Inghelbrecht, Dries Heyman, Pieter Marius

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Literature reveals that many investors rely on technical trading rules when making investment decisions. If stock markets are efficient, one cannot achieve superior results by using these trading rules. However, if market inefficiencies are present, profitable opportunities may arise. The aim of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of technical trading rules in 34 emerging stock markets. The performance of the rules is evaluated by utilizing White-s Reality Check and the Superior Predictive Ability test of Hansen, along with an adjustment for transaction costs. These tests are able to evaluate whether the best model performs better than a buy-and-hold benchmark. Further, they provide an answer to data snooping problems, which is essential to obtain unbiased outcomes. Based on our results we conclude that technical trading rules are not able to outperform a naïve buy-and-hold benchmark on a consistent basis. However, we do find significant trading rule profits in 4 of the 34 investigated markets. We also present evidence that technical analysis is more profitable in crisis situations. Nevertheless, this result is relatively weak.

Keywords: technical trading rules, Reality Check, Superior Predictive Ability, emerging stock markets, data snooping

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Authors: Ana Mouro, Ana Ramalheira

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Since 1989, with the Fall of the Berlin Wall, Germany has undergone a profound restructuring political and economic process. When the Euro Crisis broke out, Germany was no longer the “sick man” of Europe. Instead, it had recovered its dominance as the strongest and wealthiest economy within the European Union. With the European Debt Crisis, that has been taking place in the European Union since the end of 2009, Germany´s Chancellor Angela Merkel has gained the power of deciding, so to say, on the fate of the debtor nations, but she neither stands for binding German commitments, nor refuses assistance. A debate on whether Merkel’s hesitation has been deliberated and used as a means of coercion has arisen on international print media, and the Portuguese Press has been no exception. This study, which was conducted by using news reporting, opinion articles, interviews and editorials, published in the Portuguese weekly Expresso and the daily Público, from 2008 to 2015, tries to show how Merkel’s hesitation, depicted in the press by the term “Merkiavelli”, was perceived in Portugal, a country that had to embrace the austerity measures, imposed by the European Central Bank, but defined under Angela Merkel´s leading role.

Keywords: Euro crisis, “Merkiavelli”, cultural studies, Portuguese quality press.

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Authors: S. P. Sharma, Som Nath Saha

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This paper presents the performance, based on exergy analysis of double flow solar air heaters with corrugated and flat plate absorber. A mathematical model of double flow solar air heater based on energy balance equations has been presented and the results obtained have been compared with that of a conventional flat-plate solar air heater. The double flow corrugated absorber solar air heater performs thermally better than the flat plate double flow and conventional flat-plate solar air heater under same operating conditions. However, the corrugated absorber leads to higher pressure drop thereby increasing pumping power. The results revealed that the energy and exergy efficiencies of double flow corrugated absorber solar air heater is much higher than conventional solar air heater with the concept involving of increase in heat transfer surface area and turbulence in air flow. The results indicate that the energy efficiency increases, however, exergy efficiency decreases with increase in mass flow rate.

Keywords: Corrugated absorber, double flow, exergy efficiency, solar air heater.

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Authors: M. Cangi, T. Dolar, C. Ersoy, Y. E. Aydogdu, A. I. Aydeniz, A. Mugan

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The drum is one of the critical parts in a washing machine in which the clothes are washed and spin by the rotational movement. It is activated by the drum shaft which is attached to an electric motor and subjected to dynamic loading. Being one of the critical components, failures of the drum require costly repairs of dynamic components. In this study, tolerance bands between the drum shaft and its two bearings were examined to develop a relationship between the fatigue life of the shaft and the interaction tolerances. Optimization of tolerance bands was completed in consideration of the fatigue life of the shaft as the cost function. The following methodology is followed: multibody dynamic model of a washing machine was constructed and used to calculate dynamic loading on the components. Then, these forces were used in finite element analyses to calculate the stress field in critical components which was used for fatigue life predictions. The factors affecting the fatigue life were examined to find optimum tolerance grade for a given test condition. Numerical results were verified by experimental observations.

Keywords: Fatigue life, finite element analysis, tolerance analysis, optimization.

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Authors: Buket Boz, Alvaro Diez

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Waste heat recovery by means of Organic Rankine Cycle is a promising technology for the recovery of engine exhaust heat. However, it is complex to find out the optimum cycle conditions with appropriate working fluids to match exhaust gas waste heat due to its high temperature. Hence, this paper focuses on comparing sub-critical and supercritical ORC conditions with eight working fluids on a combined diesel engine-ORC system. The model employs two ORC designs, Regenerative-ORC and Pre-Heating-Regenerative-ORC respectively. The thermodynamic calculations rely on the first and second law of thermodynamics, thermal efficiency and exergy destruction factors are the fundamental parameters evaluated. Additionally, in this study, environmental and safety, GWP (Global Warming Potential) and ODP (Ozone Depletion Potential), characteristic of the refrigerants are taken into consideration as evaluation criteria to define the optimal ORC configuration and conditions. Consequently, the studys outcomes reveal that supercritical ORCs with alkane and siloxane are more suitable for high temperature exhaust waste heat recovery in contrast to sub-critical conditions.

Keywords: Internal combustion engine, organic rankine cycle, waste heat recovery, working fluids.

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Authors: Yang Xiaoliang, Liu Wei, Wang Hongbo, Zhao Yunfei

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Numerical investigation of the characteristics of an 80° delta wing in combined force-pitch and free-roll is presented. The implicit, upwind, flux-difference splitting, finite volume scheme and the second-order-accurate finite difference scheme are employed to solve the flow governing equations and Euler rigid-body dynamics equations, respectively. The characteristics of the delta wing in combined free-roll and large amplitude force-pitch is obtained numerically and shows a well agreement with experimental data qualitatively. The motion in combined force-pitch and free-roll significantly reduces the lift force and transverse stabilities of the delta wing, which is closely related to the flying safety. Investigations on sensitive factors indicate that the roll-axis moment of inertia and the structural damping have great influence on the frequency and amplitude, respectively. Moreover, the turbulence model is considered as an influencing factor in the investigation.

Keywords: combined force-pitch and free-roll, numericalsimulation, sensitive factors, slender delta wing, wing rock

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Authors: Kateřina Jurdová

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Hanging to the trapezoidal sheet by decking hanger is a very widespread solution used in civil engineering to lead the distribution of energy, sanitary, air distribution system etc. under the roof or floor structure. The trapezoidal decking hanger is usually a part of the whole installation system for specific distribution medium. The leading companies offer installation systems for each specific distribution e.g. pipe rings, sprinkler systems, installation channels etc. Every specific part is connected to the base connector which is decking hanger. The own connection has three main components: decking hanger, threaded bar with nuts and web of trapezoidal sheet. The aim of this contribution is determinate the failure mechanism of each component in connection. Load bearing capacity of most components in connection could be calculated by formulas in European codes. This contribution is focused on problematic of bearing resistance of threaded bar in web of trapezoidal sheet. This issue is studied by experimental research and numerical modelling. This contribution presented the initial results of experiment which is compared with numerical model of specimen.

Keywords: Decking hanger, concentrated load, connection, load bearing capacity, trapezoidal metal sheet.

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Authors: Yasser M. Moustafa, Rania E. Morsi, Mohammed Fathy

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Multiwall carbon nanotubes, prepared by chemical vapor deposition, have an average diameter of 60-100 nm as shown by High Resolution Transmittance Electron Microscope, HR-TEM. The Multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) were further characterized using X-ray Diffraction and Raman Spectroscopy. Mercury uptake capacity of MWCNTs was studied using batch adsorption method at different concentration ranges up to 150 ppm. Mercury concentration (before and after the treatment) was measured using cold vapor atomic absorption spectroscopy. The effect of time, concentration, pH and adsorbent dose were studied. MWCNT were found to perform complete absorption in the sub-ppm concentrations (parts per billion levels) while for high concentrations, the adsorption efficiency was 92% at the optimum conditions; 0.1 g of the adsorbent at 150 ppm mercury (II) solution. The adsorption of mercury on MWCNTs was found to follow the Freundlich adsorption isotherm and the pseudo-second order kinetic model.

Keywords: Cold Vapor Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy, Hydride System, Mercury Removing, Multi Wall Carbon Nanotubes.

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Authors: Osa D Egonwa

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In the 21^st century, the disciplinary boundaries of past centuries that we often create through mainstream art historical classification, techniques and sources may have been eroded by visual culture, which seems to provide a more inclusive umbrella for the new ways artists go about the creative process and its resultant commodities. Over the past four decades, artists in Africa have resorted to new materials, techniques and themes which have affected our ways of research on these artists and their art. Frontline artists such as El Anatsui, Yinka Shonibare, Erasmus Onyishi are demonstrating that any material is just suitable for artistic expression. Most of times, these materials come with their own techniques/effects and visual syntax: a combination of materials compounds techniques, formal aesthetic indexes, halo effects, and iconography. This tends to challenge the categories and we lean on to view, think and talk about them. This renders our main stream art historical research methods inadequate, thus suggesting new discursive concepts, terms and theories. This paper proposed the Africanist eclectic methods derived from the dual framework of Masquerade Theory and What Comes Behind Six is More Than Seven. This paper shares thoughts/research on art historical methods, terminological re-alignments on classification/source data, presentational format and interpretation arising from the emergent trends in our subject. The outcome provides useful tools to mediate new thoughts and experiences in recent African art and visual culture.

Keywords: Art Historical Methods, Classifications, Concepts , Re-alignment.

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Authors: Bilgehan Gültekin, Tuba Gültekin

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Universities have an important role in social education in many aspects. In terms of creating awareness and convincing public about social issues, universities take a leading position for public. The best way to provide public support for social education is to develop public communication campaigns. The aim of this study is to present a public communication model which will be guided in social education practices. The study titled “Importance of public communication campaigns and art activities in Social Education “is based on the following topics: Effects of public communication campaigns on social education, Public relations techniques for education, communication strategies, Steps of public relations campaigns in social education, making persuasive messages for public communication campaigns, developing artistic messages and organizing art activities in social education. In addition to these topics, media planning for social education, forming a team as campaign managers, dialogues with opinion leaders in education and preparing creative communication models for social education will be taken into consideration. This study also aims to criticize social education Case studies in Turkey. At the same time, some communicative methods and principles will be given in the light of communication campaigns within the context of this notice.

Keywords: Art activities in social education, Persuasive communication, Public communication campaigns, Public relations techniques for education

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Authors: Muhammad T. Alam, Zheng Da Wu

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In this paper, we provide complete end-to-end delay analyses including the relay nodes for instant messages. Message Session Relay Protocol (MSRP) is used to provide congestion control for large messages in the Instant Messaging (IM) service. Large messages are broken into several chunks. These chunks may traverse through a maximum number of two relay nodes before reaching destination according to the IETF specification of the MSRP relay extensions. We discuss the current solutions of sending large instant messages and introduce a proposal to reduce message flows in the IM service. We consider virtual traffic parameter i.e., the relay nodes are stateless non-blocking for scalability purpose. This type of relay node is also assumed to have input rate at constant bit rate. We provide a new scheduling policy that schedules chunks according to their previous node?s delivery time stamp tags. Validation and analysis is shown for such scheduling policy. The performance analysis with the model introduced in this paper is simple and straight forward, which lead to reduced message flows in the IM service.

Keywords: Instant messaging, stateless, chunking, MSRP.

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Authors: Tamás Hartványi, Ferenc Tóth

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European telecommunication distribution center performance is measured by service lead time and quality. Operation model is CTO (customized to order) namely, a high mix customization of telecommunication network equipment and parts. CTO operation contains material receiving, warehousing, network and server assembly to order and configure based on customer specifications. Variety of the product and orders does not support mass production structure. One of the success factors to satisfy customer is to have a proper aggregated planning method for the operation in order to have optimized human resources and highly efficient asset utilization. Research will investigate several methods and find proper way to have an order book simulation where practical optimization problem may contain thousands of variables and the simulation running times of developed algorithms were taken into account with high importance. There are two operation research models that were developed, customer demand is given in orders, no change over time, customer demands are given for product types, and changeover time is constant.

Keywords: CTO, aggregated planning, demand simulation, changeover time.

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Authors: Borja Bordel, Ramón Alcarria, Marina Pérez

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In March 2020, in Spain, a sanitary and unexpected crisis caused by COVID-19 was declared. All of a sudden, all degrees, classes and evaluation tests and projects had to be transformed into online activities. However, the chaotic situation generated by a complex operation like that, executed without any well-established procedure, led to very different experiences and, finally, results. In this paper, we are describing three experiences in two different Universities in Madrid. On the one hand, the Technical University of Madrid, a public university with little experience in online education was considered. On the other hand, Alfonso X el Sabio University, a private university with more than five years of experience in online teaching was involved. All analyzed subjects were related to computer engineering. Professors and students answered a survey and personal interviews were also carried out. Besides, the professors’ workload and the students’ academic results were also compared. From the comparative analysis of all these experiences, we are extracting the most successful strategies, methodologies, and activities. The recommendations in this paper will be useful for courses during the next months when the sanitary situation is still affecting an educational organization. While, at the same time, they will be considered as input for the upcoming digitalization process of higher education.

Keywords: educational experience, online education, higher education digitalization, COVID, Spain

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Authors: Rahil Garnavi, Mohammad Aldeen, M. Emre Celebi, Alauddin Bhuiyan, Constantinos Dolianitis, George Varigos

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Automatic segmentation of skin lesions is the first step towards the automated analysis of malignant melanoma. Although numerous segmentation methods have been developed, few studies have focused on determining the most effective color space for melanoma application. This paper proposes an automatic segmentation algorithm based on color space analysis and clustering-based histogram thresholding, a process which is able to determine the optimal color channel for detecting the borders in dermoscopy images. The algorithm is tested on a set of 30 high resolution dermoscopy images. A comprehensive evaluation of the results is provided, where borders manually drawn by four dermatologists, are compared to automated borders detected by the proposed algorithm, applying three previously used metrics of accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity and a new metric of similarity. By performing ROC analysis and ranking the metrics, it is demonstrated that the best results are obtained with the X and XoYoR color channels, resulting in an accuracy of approximately 97%. The proposed method is also compared with two state-of-theart skin lesion segmentation methods.

Keywords: Border detection, Color space analysis, Dermoscopy, Histogram thresholding, Melanoma, Segmentation.

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Authors: Muhammed Ertuğrul Çeloğlu, Mehmet Yılmaz

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In this study, apricot seed shell, walnut shell, and sawdust were chosen as biomass sources. The materials were sorted by using a sieve No. 50 and the sieved materials were subjected to pyrolysis process at 400 °C, resulting in three different biochar products. The resulting biochar products were added to the bitumen at three different rates (5%, 10% and 15%), producing modified bitumen. Penetration, softening point, rotation viscometer and dynamic shear rheometer (DSR) tests were conducted on modified binders. Thus the modified bitumen, which was obtained by using additives at 3 different rates obtained from biochar produced at 400 °C temperatures of 3 different biomass sources were compared and the effects of pyrolysis temperature and additive rates were evaluated. As a result of the conducted tests, it was determined that the rheology of the pure bitumen improved significantly as a result of the modification of the bitumen with the biochar. Additionally, with biochar additive, it was determined that the rutting parameter values obtained from softening point, viscometer and DSR tests were increased while the values in terms of penetration and phase angle decreased. It was also observed that the most effective biomass is sawdust while the least effective was ground apricot seed shell.

Keywords: Rheology, biomass, pyrolysis, biochar.

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Authors: Fuyang Peng, Donghong Li

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The aim of information systems integration is to make all the data sources, applications and business flows integrated into the new environment so that unwanted redundancies are reduced and bottlenecks and mismatches are eliminated. Two issues have to be dealt with to meet such requirements: the software architecture that supports resource integration, and the adaptor development tool that help integration and migration of legacy applications. In this paper, a service-enabled dependable integration environment (SDIE), is presented, which has two key components, i.e., a dependable service integration platform and a legacy application integration tool. For the dependable platform for service integration, the service integration bus, the service management framework, the dependable engine for service composition, and the service registry and discovery components are described. For the legacy application integration tool, its basic organization, functionalities and dependable measures taken are presented. Due to its service-oriented integration model, the light-weight extensible container, the service component combination-oriented p-lattice structure, and other features, SDIE has advantages in openness, flexibility, performance-price ratio and feature support over commercial products, is better than most of the open source integration software in functionality, performance and dependability support.

Keywords: Application integration, dependability, legacy, SOA.

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Authors: Wei-Jong Yang, Wei-Hau Du, Pau-Choo Chang, Jar-Ferr Yang, Pi-Hsia Hung

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The demands of smart visual thing recognition in various devices have been increased rapidly for daily smart production, living and learning systems in recent years. This paper proposed a visual thing recognition system, which combines binary scale-invariant feature transform (SIFT), bag of words model (BoW), and support vector machine (SVM) by using color information. Since the traditional SIFT features and SVM classifiers only use the gray information, color information is still an important feature for visual thing recognition. With color-based SIFT features and SVM, we can discard unreliable matching pairs and increase the robustness of matching tasks. The experimental results show that the proposed object recognition system with color-assistant SIFT SVM classifier achieves higher recognition rate than that with the traditional gray SIFT and SVM classification in various situations.

Keywords: Color moments, visual thing recognition system, SIFT, color SIFT.

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Authors: M. Ismail, Cao Yihua, Zhao Ming, Abu Bakar

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Heavy rainfall greatly affects the aerodynamic performance of the aircraft. There are many accidents of aircraft caused by aerodynamic efficiency degradation by heavy rain. In this Paper we have studied the heavy rain effects on the aerodynamic efficiency of cambered NACA 64-210 and symmetric NACA 0012 airfoils. Our results show significant increase in drag and decrease in lift. We used preprocessing software gridgen for creation of geometry and mesh, used fluent as solver and techplot as postprocessor. Discrete phase modeling called DPM is used to model the rain particles using two phase flow approach. The rain particles are assumed to be inert. Both airfoils showed significant decrease in lift and increase in drag in simulated rain environment. The most significant difference between these two airfoils was the NACA 64-210 more sensitivity than NACA 0012 to liquid water content (LWC). We believe that the results showed in this paper will be useful for the designer of the commercial aircrafts and UAVs, and will be helpful for training of the pilots to control the airplanes in heavy rain.

Keywords: airfoil, discrete phase modeling, heavy rain, Reynolds

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Authors: Nader H. Ghareeb, Mohamed S. Gaith, Sayed M. Soleimani

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In modern engineering, weight optimization has a priority during the design of structures. However, optimizing the weight can result in lower stiffness and less internal damping, causing the structure to become excessively prone to vibration. To overcome this problem, active or smart materials are implemented. The coupled electromechanical properties of smart materials, used in the form of piezoelectric ceramics in this work, make these materials well-suited for being implemented as distributed sensors and actuators to control the structural response. The smart structure proposed in this paper is composed of a cantilevered steel beam, an adhesive or bonding layer, and a piezoelectric actuator. The static deflection of the structure is derived as function of the piezoelectric voltage, and the outcome is compared to theoretical and experimental results from literature. The relation between the voltage and the piezoelectric moment at both ends of the actuator is also investigated and a reduced finite element model of the smart structure is created and verified. Finally, a linear controller is implemented and its ability to attenuate the vibration due to the first natural frequency is demonstrated.

Keywords: Active linear control, Lyapunov stability theorem, piezoelectricity, smart structure, static deflection.

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Authors: C. C. Alamanjo, A. O. Adepoju, H. Martin, R. N. Baines

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Peri-urban agriculture in Jos Nigeria serves as a major means of livelihood for both urban and peri-urban poor, and constitutes huge commercial inclination with a target market that has spanned beyond Plateau State. Yet, the sustainability of this sector is threatened by intensive application of urban refuse ash contaminated with heavy metals, as a result of the highly heterogeneous materials used in ash production. Hence, this research aimed to understand the current fertilizer employed by farmers, their perception and acceptability in utilization of household sewage sludge for agricultural purposes and their capacity in mitigating risks associated with such practice. Mixed methods approach was adopted, and data collection tools used include survey questionnaire, focus group discussion with farmers, participants and field observation. The study identified that farmers maintain a complex mixture of organic and chemical fertilizers, with mixture composition that is dependent on fertilizer availability and affordability. Also, farmers have decreased the rate of utilization of urban refuse ash due to labor and increased logistic cost and are keen to utilize household sewage sludge for soil fertility improvement but are mainly constrained by accessibility of this waste product. Nevertheless, farmers near to sewage disposal points have commenced utilization of household sewage sludge for improving soil fertility. Farmers were knowledgeable on composting but find their strategic method of dewatering and sun drying more convenient. Irrigation farmers were not enthusiastic for treatment, as they desired both water and sludge. Secondly, household sewage sludge observed in the field is heterogeneous due to nearness between its disposal point and that of urban refuse, which raises concern for possible cross-contamination of pollutants and also portrays lack of extension guidance as regards to treatment and management of household sewage sludge for agricultural purposes. Hence, farmers concerns need to be addressed, particularly in providing extension advice and establishment of decentralized household sewage sludge collection centers, for continuous availability of liquid and concentrated sludge. Urgent need is also required for the Federal Government of Nigeria to increase commitment towards empowering her subsidiaries for efficient discharge of corporate responsibilities.

Keywords: Ash, farmers, household, peri-urban, refuse, sewage, sludge, urban.

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Authors: M. Pandi, K. Premalatha

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The DNA microarray technology concurrently monitors the expression levels of thousands of genes during significant biological processes and across the related samples. The better understanding of functional genomics is obtained by extracting the patterns hidden in gene expression data. It is handled by clustering which reveals natural structures and identify interesting patterns in the underlying data. In the proposed work clustering gene expression data is done through an Advanced Nelder Mead (ANM) algorithm. Nelder Mead (NM) method is a method designed for optimization process. In Nelder Mead method, the vertices of a triangle are considered as the solutions. Many operations are performed on this triangle to obtain a better result. In the proposed work, the operations like reflection and expansion is eliminated and a new operation called spread-out is introduced. The spread-out operation will increase the global search area and thus provides a better result on optimization. The spread-out operation will give three points and the best among these three points will be used to replace the worst point. The experiment results are analyzed with optimization benchmark test functions and gene expression benchmark datasets. The results show that ANM outperforms NM in both benchmarks.

Keywords: Spread out, simplex, multi-minima, fitness function, optimization, search area, monocyte, solution, genomes.

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Authors: R. Vetrimurugan, Terry Lim, M. J. Goodson, R. Nagarajan

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This study investigates the cleaning performance of high intensity 360 kHz frequency on removal of nano-dimensional and sub-micron particles from various surfaces, uniformity of the cleaning tank and run to run variation of cleaning process. The uniformity of the cleaning tank was measured by two different methods i.e. 1. ppbTM meter and 2. Liquid Particle Counting (LPC) technique. The result indicates that the energy was distributed more uniformly throughout the entire cleaning vessel even at the corners and edges of the tank when megasonic sweeping technology is applied. The result also shows that rinsing the parts with 360 kHz frequency at final rinse gives lower particle counts, hence higher cleaning efficiency as compared to other frequencies. When megasonic sweeping technology is applied each piezoelectric transducers will operate at their optimum resonant frequency and generates stronger acoustic cavitational force and higher acoustic streaming velocity. These combined forces are helping to enhance the particle removal and at the same time improve the overall cleaning performance. The multiple extractions study was also carried out for various frequencies to measure the cleaning potential and asymptote value.

Keywords: Power distribution, megasonic sweeping, thickness mode transducers, cavitation intensity, particle removal, laser particle counting, nano, submicron.

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Authors: Z. Zainuddin, W. D. Wan Rosli, R. Lanouette, S. Sathasivam

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This paper reports work done to improve the modeling of complex processes when only small experimental data sets are available. Neural networks are used to capture the nonlinear underlying phenomena contained in the data set and to partly eliminate the burden of having to specify completely the structure of the model. Two different types of neural networks were used for the application of pulping problem. A three layer feed forward neural networks, using the Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient (PCG) methods were used in this investigation. Preconditioning is a method to improve convergence by lowering the condition number and increasing the eigenvalues clustering. The idea is to solve the modified odified problem M-1 Ax= M-1b where M is a positive-definite preconditioner that is closely related to A. We mainly focused on Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient- based training methods which originated from optimization theory, namely Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient with Fletcher-Reeves Update (PCGF), Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient with Polak-Ribiere Update (PCGP) and Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient with Powell-Beale Restarts (PCGB). The behavior of the PCG methods in the simulations proved to be robust against phenomenon such as oscillations due to large step size.

Keywords: Convergence, pulping modeling, neural networks, preconditioned conjugate gradient.

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Authors: Alexander Y. Vaninsky

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The objective of this paper is finding the way of economic restructuring - that is, change in the shares of sectoral gross outputs - resulting in the maximum possible increase in the gross domestic product (GDP) combined with decreases in energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. It uses an input-output model for the GDP and factorial models for the energy consumption and CO₂ emissions to determine the projection of the gradient of GDP, and the antigradients of the energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, respectively, on a subspace formed by the structure-related variables. Since the gradient (antigradient) provides a direction of the steepest increase (decrease) of the objective function, and their projections retain this property for the functions' limitation to the subspace, each of the three directional vectors solves a particular problem of optimal structural change. In the next step, a type of factor analysis is applied to find a convex combination of the projected gradient and antigradients having maximal possible positive correlation with each of the three. This convex combination provides the desired direction of the structural change. The national economy of the United States is used as an example of applications.

Keywords: Economic restructuring, Input-Output analysis, Divisia index, Factorial decomposition, E3 models.

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Authors: S. H. Iranmanesh, L. Aliabadi, A. Mollajan

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Integrated resilience engineering (IRE) is capable of returning banking systems to the normal state in extensive economic circumstances. In this study, information system of a large bank (with several branches) is assessed and optimized under severe economic conditions. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) models are employed to achieve the objective of this study. Nine IRE factors are considered to be the outputs, and a dummy variable is defined as the input of the DEA models. A standard questionnaire is designed and distributed among executive managers to be considered as the decision-making units (DMUs). Reliability and validity of the questionnaire is examined based on Cronbach's alpha and t-test. The most appropriate DEA model is determined based on average efficiency and normality test. It is shown that the proposed integrated design provides higher efficiency than the conventional RE design. Results of sensitivity and perturbation analysis indicate that self-organization, fault tolerance, and reporting culture respectively compose about 50 percent of total weight.

Keywords: Banking system, data envelopment analysis, DEA, integrated resilience engineering, IRE, performance evaluation, perturbation analysis.

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Authors: P. Mbecke

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The role of the government to tangibly alleviate poverty, improve and sustain the quality of people’s lives remains a “work in progress” twenty-two years after the dawn of democracy in South Africa despite a host of socio-economic programs and pro-poor policies and legislations. This paper assesses the development process and the implementation of the White Paper on Families in South Africa as one of the pro-poor policies intended to curb poverty and redress the imbalances of the apartheid regime. The paper is the result of a qualitative implementation research theory facilitated through in-depth interviews with social work managers complemented by literature and policy review techniques. It investigates the level of basic knowledge and understanding as well as the implementation challenges of the White Paper on Families as causes of its failure. The paper emphasizes the importance of the family-centered approach in the implementation of pro-poor policies. To facilitate the understanding of the White Paper on Families by its users, the Department of Social Development needs take stock of the identified challenges of its implementation so as to facilitate its success in fostering positive family well-being that will directly contributes to the overall socio-economic development of South Africa.

Keywords: Poverty alleviation, pro-poor policy, social development, social welfare, South Africa.

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Authors: David Goldblum, Lesley S. Rigg

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To simulate expected climate change, we implemented a two-factor (temperature and soil moisture) field design in a forest in Ontario, Canada. To manipulate moisture input, we erected rain-exclusion structures. Under each structure, plots were watered with one of three treatments and thermally controlled with three heat treatments to simulate changes in air temperature and rainfall based on the climate model (GCM) predictions for the study area. Environmental conditions (including untreated controls) were monitored tracking air temperature, soil temperature, soil moisture, and photosynthetically active radiation. We measured rainfall and relative humidity at the site outside the rain-exclusion structures. Analyses of environmental conditions demonstrates that the temperature manipulation was most effective at maintaining target temperature during the early part of the growing season, but it was more difficult to keep the warmest treatment at 5º C above ambient by late summer. Target moisture regimes were generally achieved however incoming solar radiation was slightly attenuated by the structures.

Keywords: Acer saccharum, climate change, forest, environmental manipulation.

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Authors: Md. Zahangir Alom, Mei-Lan Piao, Md. Ashraful Alam, Nam Kim, Jae-Hyeung Park

Abstract:

A new approach for facial expressions recognition based on face context and adaptively weighted sub-pattern PCA (Aw-SpPCA) has been presented in this paper. The facial region and others part of the body have been segmented from the complex environment based on skin color model. An algorithm has been proposed to accurate detection of face region from the segmented image based on constant ratio of height and width of face (δ= 1.618). The paper also discusses on new concept to detect the eye and mouth position. The desired part of the face has been cropped to analysis the expression of a person. Unlike PCA based on a whole image pattern, Aw-SpPCA operates directly on its sub patterns partitioned from an original whole pattern and separately extracts features from them. Aw-SpPCA can adaptively compute the contributions of each part and a classification task in order to enhance the robustness to both expression and illumination variations. Experiments on single standard face with five types of facial expression database shows that the proposed method is competitive.

Keywords: Aw-SpPC, Expressoin Recognition, Face context, Face Detection, PCA

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Authors: Eulalia Torras, Andreu Bellot

Abstract:

To know whether students’ achievements are the result of online interaction and not just a consequence of individual differences themselves, it seems essential to link the teaching presence and social presence to the types of knowledge built. The research aim is to analyze the social presence in relation to two types of knowledge, declarative and procedural. Qualitative methodology has been used. The analysis of the contents was based on an observation protocol that included community of enquiry indicators and procedural and declarative knowledge indicators. The research has been conducted in three phases that focused on an observational protocol and indicators, results and conclusions. Results show that the teaching-learning processes have been characterized by the patterns of presence and types of knowledge. Results also show the importance of social presence support provided by the teacher and the students, not only in regard to the nature of the instructional support but also concerning how it is presented to the student and the importance that is attributed to it in the teaching-learning process, that is, what it is that assistance is offered on. In this study, we find that the presence based on procedural guidelines and declarative reflection, the management of shared meaning on the basis of the skills and the evidence of these skills entail patterns of learning. Nevertheless, the importance that the teacher attributes to each support aspect has a bearing on the extent to which the students reflect more on the given task.

Keywords: Education, online, teaching and learning processes, knowledge.

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Authors: L. Basha, E. Gjika

Abstract:

The exchange rate is one of the most important economic variables, especially for a small, open economy such as Albania. Its effect is noticeable on one country's competitiveness, trade and current account, inflation, wages, domestic economic activity and bank stability. This study investigates the fluctuation of Albania’s exchange rates using monthly average foreign currency, Euro (Eur) to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate with a time span from January 2008 to June 2021 and the macroeconomic factors that have a significant effect on the exchange rate. Initially, the Random Forest Regression algorithm is constructed to understand the impact of economic variables in the behavior of monthly average foreign currencies exchange rates. Then the forecast of macro-economic indicators for 12 months was performed using time series models. The predicted values received are placed in the random forest model in order to obtain the average monthly forecast of Euro to Albanian Lek (ALL) exchange rate for the period July 2021 to June 2022.

Keywords: Exchange rate, Random Forest, time series, Machine Learning, forecasting.

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