Search results for: techno economic analysis.

Authors: Buntheng Chhorn, WooYoung Jung

Abstract:

Large-scale swing has been used in entertainment and performance, especially in circus, for a very long time. To increase the safety of this type of structure, a thorough analysis for displacement and bearing stress was performed for an extreme condition where a full cycle swing occurs. Different masses, ranging from 40 kg to 220 kg, and velocities were applied on the swing. Then, based on the solution of differential dynamics equation, swing velocity response to harmonic force was obtained. Moreover, the resistance capacity was estimated based on ACI steel structure design guide. Subsequently, numerical analysis was performed in ABAQUS to obtain the stress on each frame of the swing. Finally, the analysis shows that the expansion of swing structure frame section was required for mass bigger than 150kg.

Keywords: Swing structure, displacement, bearing stress, dynamic loads response, finite element analysis.

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Authors: Kausik Halder, Nabendu Chaki, Ranjan Dasgupta

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We present a modeling framework that supports the engineering of early requirements specifications for design of learner centric dynamic Learning Management System. The framework is based on i* modeling tool and Means End Analysis, that adopts primitive concepts for modeling early requirements (such as actor, goal, and strategic dependency). We show how pedagogical and computational requirements for designing a learner centric Learning Management system can be adapted for the automatic early requirement engineering specifications. Finally, we presented a model on a Learner Quanta based adaptive Courseware. Our early requirement analysis shows that how means end analysis reveals gaps and inconsistencies in early requirements specifications that are by no means trivial to discover without the help of formal analysis tool.

Keywords: Adaptive Courseware, Early Requirement Engineering, Means End Analysis, Organizational Modeling, Requirement Modeling.

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Authors: N.Karunakaran, V.Balasubramanian

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This paper presents the results of a study aimed at establishing the temperature distribution during the welding of magnesium alloy sheets by Pulsed Current Gas Tungsten Arc Welding (PCGTAW) and Constant Current Gas Tungsten Arc Welding (CCGTAW) processes. Pulsing of the GTAW welding current influences the dimensions and solidification rate of the fused zone, it also reduces the weld pool volume hence a narrower bead. In this investigation, the base material considered was 2mm thin AZ 31 B magnesium alloy, which is finding use in aircraft, automobile and high-speed train components. A finite element analysis was carried out using ANSYS, and the results of the FEA were compared with the experimental results. It is evident from this study that the finite element analysis using ANSYS can be effectively used to model PCGTAW process for finding temperature distribution.

Keywords: gas tungsten arc welding, pulsed current, finiteelement analysis, thermal analysis, magnesium alloy.

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Authors: Sónia Alves

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During the last few decades in the academic field, the debate has increased on the effects of social geography on the opportunities of socioeconomic integration. On one hand, it has been discussed how the contents of the urban structure and social geography affect not only the way people interact, but also their chances of social and economic integration. On the other hand, it has also been discussed how the urban structure is also constrained and transformed by the action of social actors. Without questioning the powerful influence of structural factors, related to the logic of the production system, labor markets, education and training, the research has shown the role played by place of residence in shaping individual outcomes such as unemployment. In the context of this debate the importance of territory of residence with respect to the problem of unemployment has been highlighted. Although statistics of unemployment have already demonstrated the unequal incidence of the phenomenon in social groups, the issue of uneven territorial impact on the phenomenon at intra-urban level remains relatively unknown. The purpose of this article is to show and to interpret the spatial patterns of unemployment in the city of Porto using GIS (Geographic Information System - GIS) technology. Under this analysis the overlap of the spatial patterns of unemployment with the spatial distribution of social housing, allows the discussion of the relationship that occurs between these patterns and the reasons that might explain the relative immutability of socioeconomic problems in some neighborhoods.

Keywords: Unemployment, area effects, urban planning, Porto.

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Authors: Shweta Singh, Dipali Bansal, Rashima Mahajan

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Psychoacoustics has become a potential area of research due to the growing interest of both laypersons and medical and mental health professionals. Non invasive brain computer interface like Electroencephalography (EEG) is widely being used in this field. An attempt has been made in this paper to examine the response of EEG signals to acoustic stimuli further analyzing the brain electrical activity. The real time EEG is acquired for 6 participants using a cost effective and portable EMOTIV EEG neuro headset. EEG data analysis is further done using EMOTIV test bench, EDF browser and EEGLAB (MATLAB Tool) application software platforms. Spectral analysis of acquired neural signals (AF3 channel) using these software platforms are clearly indicative of increased brain activity in various bands. The inferences drawn from such an analysis have significant correlation with subject’s subjective reporting of the experiences. The results suggest that the methodology adopted can further be used to assist patients with sleeping and depressive disorders.

Keywords: OM’ chant, Spectral analysis, EDF Browser, EEGLAB, EMOTIV, Real time Acquisition.

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Authors: A. Danbaba

Abstract:

Several experiments are conducted at different environments such as locations or periods (seasons) with identical treatments to each experiment purposely to study the interaction between the treatments and environments or between the treatments and periods (seasons). The commonly used designs of experiments for this purpose are randomized block design, Latin square design, balanced incomplete block design, Youden design, and one or more factor designs. The interest is to carry out a combined analysis of the data from these multi-environment experiments, instead of analyzing each experiment separately. This paper proposed combined analysis of experiments conducted via Sudoku square design of odd order with same experimental treatments.

Keywords: Sudoku designs, combined analysis, multi-environment experiments, common treatments.

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Authors: Joanna Stawska

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The main objective of this article is to examine the impact of interest rates on investments in Poland in the context of financial crisis. The paper also investigates the dependence of bank loans to enterprises on interbank market rates. The article studies the impact of interbank market rate on the level of investments in Poland. Besides, this article focuses on the research of the correlation between the level of corporate loans and the amount of investments in Poland in order to determine the indirect impact of central bank interest rates through the transmission mechanism of monetary policy on the real economy. To achieve the objective we have used econometric and statistical research methods like: econometric model and Pearson correlation coefficient. This analysis suggests that the central bank reference rate inversely proportionally affects the level of investments in Poland and this dependence is moderate. This is also important issue because it is related to preparing of Poland to accession to euro area. The research is important from both theoretical and empirical points of view. The formulated conclusions and recommendations determine the practical significance of the paper which may be used in the decision making process of monetary and economic authorities of the country.

Keywords: Central bank, financial crisis, interest rate, investments.

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Authors: Ki-Young Kim, Jae-Ho Lim, Deok-Min Kim, Seok-Yoon Kim

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Average current analysis checking the impact of current flow is very important to guarantee the reliability of semiconductor systems. As semiconductor process technologies improve, the coupling capacitance often become bigger than self capacitances. In this paper, we propose an analytic technique for analyzing average current on interconnects in multi-conductor structures. The proposed technique has shown to yield the acceptable errors compared to HSPICE results while providing computational efficiency.

Keywords: current moment, interconnect modeling, reliability analysis, worst-case switching

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Authors: Abdel-Aziz M. Mohamed, Nermeen Coutry

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Lead time is a critical measure of a supply chain's performance. It impacts both the customer satisfactions as well as the total cost of inventory. This paper presents the result of a study on the analysis of the customer order lead-time for a multinational company. In the study, the lead time was divided into three stages respectively: order entry, order fulfillment, and order delivery. A sample of size 2,425 order lines was extracted from the company's records to use for this study. The sample data entails information regarding customer orders from the time of order entry until order delivery. Data regarding the lead time of each stage for different orders were also provided. Summary statistics on lead time data reveals that about 30% of the orders were delivered later than the scheduled due date. The result of the multiple linear regression analysis technique revealed that component type, logistics parameter, order size and the customer type have significant impacts on lead time. Data analysis on the stages of lead time indicates that stage 2 consumed over 50% of the lead time. Pareto analysis was made to study the reasons for the customer order delay in each stage. Recommendation was given to resolve the problem.

Keywords: Lead time reduction, customer satisfaction, service quality, statistical analysis.

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Authors: Burçe Boyraz

Abstract:

This study examines appearances of brand placement as an alternative communication strategy in television series by focusing on Yalan Dünya which is one of the most popular television series in Turkey. Consequently, this study has a descriptive research design and quantitative content analysis method is used in order to analyze frequency and time data of brand placement appearances in first 3 seasons of Yalan Dünya with 16 episodes. Analysis of brand placement practices in Yalan Dünya is dealt in three categories: episode-based analysis, season-based analysis and comparative analysis. At the end, brand placement practices in Yalan Dünya are evaluated in terms of type, form, duration and legal arrangements. As a result of this study, it is seen that brand placement plays a determinant role in Yalan Dünya content. Also, current legal arrangements make brand placement closer to other traditional communication strategies instead of differing brand placement from them distinctly.

Keywords: Advertising, Alternative communication strategy, Brand placement, Yalan Dünya.

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Authors: Kasthurirangan Gopalakrishnan, Siddhartha Khaitan, Anshu Manik

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Cluster analysis is the name given to a diverse collection of techniques that can be used to classify objects (e.g. individuals, quadrats, species etc). While Kohonen's Self-Organizing Feature Map (SOFM) or Self-Organizing Map (SOM) networks have been successfully applied as a classification tool to various problem domains, including speech recognition, image data compression, image or character recognition, robot control and medical diagnosis, its potential as a robust substitute for clustering analysis remains relatively unresearched. SOM networks combine competitive learning with dimensionality reduction by smoothing the clusters with respect to an a priori grid and provide a powerful tool for data visualization. In this paper, SOM is used for creating a toroidal mapping of two-dimensional lattice to perform cluster analysis on results of a chemical analysis of wines produced in the same region in Italy but derived from three different cultivators, referred to as the “wine recognition data" located in the University of California-Irvine database. The results are encouraging and it is believed that SOM would make an appealing and powerful decision-support system tool for clustering tasks and for data visualization.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, cluster analysis, Kohonen maps, wine recognition.

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Authors: Cleopatra Gittens

Abstract:

It has been recognized that some social security and national insurance systems in the Eastern Caribbean are experiencing ageing populations and economic and other crises that will present a financial challenge of being unable to pay pension benefits in fifteen to twenty years. This has implications for the fiscal and economic positions of the countries themselves. Hence, organizations would need to address the issue urgently. The study adds to the body of knowledge on social security systems and social security reforms in Small Island Developing States (SIDS). It also makes recommendations for the types of reforms that social security systems in other SIDS can implement given their special circumstances. Secondary research is used to gather financial and other related information on three social security schemes in the Eastern Caribbean. Actuarial and financial reports and other documents of the social security systems are analysed to obtain financial and static data on each of the schemes. The findings show that the three schemes studied are experiencing steady increases in benefit expenditure versus contributions and increasing pensioner to insured ratios. The schemes will deplete their reserves between 2038 and 2050. Two of the schemes have increased their retirement age while the other has not embarked on any reforms. One scheme has made changes to its contribution percentages. Due to their small size, small populations and other unique circumstances, the social security schemes in the identified territories are not likely to be able to take advantage of all of the reform initiatives that the developed world embarked on when faced with similar problems. These schemes will need to make incremental changes that align with the timeframes recommended by the actuarial studies.

Keywords: Pension benefits, pension, Small Island Developing States, Social Security Reform.

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Authors: Alireza Abbasi Moshaii, Mehdi Tale Masouleh, Esmail Zarezadeh, Kamran Farajzadeh

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The main purpose of this study is static analysis of two three-degree of freedom parallel mechanisms: 3-RCC and 3- RRS. Geometry of these mechanisms is expressed and static equilibrium equations are derived for the whole chains. For these mechanisms due to the equal number of equations and unknowns, the solution is as same as 3-RCC mechanism. A mathematical software is used to solve the equations. In order to prove the results obtained from solving the equations of mechanisms, the CAD model of these robots has been simulated and their static is analysed in ADAMS software. Due to symmetrical geometry of the mechanisms, the force and external torque acting on the end-effecter have been considered asymmetric to prove the generality of the solution method. Finally, the results of both softwares, for both mechanisms are extracted and compared as graphs. The good achieved comparison between the results indicates the accuracy of the analysis.

Keywords: Robotic, Static analysis, 3-RCC, 3-RRS.

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Authors: A. Arul Lawrence Selvakumar, C. Suresh Ganandhas

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This paper describes the study of cryptographic hash functions, one of the most important classes of primitives used in recent techniques in cryptography. The main aim is the development of recent crypt analysis hash function. We present different approaches to defining security properties more formally and present basic attack on hash function. We recall Merkle-Damgard security properties of iterated hash function. The Main aim of this paper is the development of recent techniques applicable to crypt Analysis hash function, mainly from SHA family. Recent proposed attacks an MD5 & SHA motivate a new hash function design. It is designed not only to have higher security but also to be faster than SHA-256. The performance of the new hash function is at least 30% better than that of SHA-256 in software. And it is secure against any known cryptographic attacks on hash functions.

Keywords: Crypt Analysis, cryptographic.

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Authors: M. Byzedi, B. Saghafian

Abstract:

Droughts are complex, natural hazards that, to a varying degree, affect some parts of the world every year. The range of drought impacts is related to drought occurring in different stages of the hydrological cycle and usually different types of droughts, such as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomical are distinguished. Streamflow drought was analyzed by the method of truncation level (at 70% level) on daily discharges measured in 54 hydrometric stations in southwestern Iran. Frequency analysis was carried out for annual maximum series (AMS) of drought deficit volume and duration series. Some factors including physiographic, climatic, geologic, and vegetation cover were studied as influential factors in the regional analysis. According to the results of factor analysis, six most effective factors were identified as area, rainfall from December to February, the percent of area with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) <0.1, the percent of convex area, drainage density and the minimum of watershed elevation that explained 90.9% of variance. The homogenous regions were determined by cluster analysis and discriminate function analysis. Suitable multivariate regression models were evaluated for streamflow drought deficit volume with 2 years return period. The significance level of regression models was 0.01. The results showed that the watershed area is the most effective factor with high correlation with deficit volume. Also, drought duration was not a suitable drought index for regional analysis.

Keywords: Iran, Streamflow drought, truncation level method, regional analysis.

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Authors: Anant Oonsivilai, Kenedy A. Greyson

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The demand of the energy management systems (EMS) set forth by modern power systems requires fast energy management systems. Contingency analysis is among the functions in EMS which is time consuming. In order to handle this limitation, this paper introduces agent based technology in the contingency analysis. The main function of agents is to speed up the performance. Negotiations process in decision making is explained and the issue set forth is the minimization of the operating costs. The IEEE 14 bus system and its line outage have been used in the research and simulation results are presented.

Keywords: Agents, model, negotiation, optimal dispatch, powersystems.

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Authors: Guomin Luo, Daming Zhang, Yong Kwee Koh, Kim Teck Ng, Helmi Kurniawan, Weng Hoe Leong

Abstract:

Partial discharge (PD) detection is an important method to evaluate the insulation condition of metal-clad apparatus. Non-intrusive sensors which are easy to install and have no interruptions on operation are preferred in onsite PD detection. However, it often lacks of accuracy due to the interferences in PD signals. In this paper a novel PD extraction method that uses frequency analysis and entropy based time-frequency (TF) analysis is introduced. The repetitive pulses from convertor are first removed via frequency analysis. Then, the relative entropy and relative peak-frequency of each pulse (i.e. time-indexed vector TF spectrum) are calculated and all pulses with similar parameters are grouped. According to the characteristics of non-intrusive sensor and the frequency distribution of PDs, the pulses of PD and interferences are separated. Finally the PD signal and interferences are recovered via inverse TF transform. The de-noised result of noisy PD data demonstrates that the combination of frequency and time-frequency techniques can discriminate PDs from interferences with various frequency distributions.

Keywords: Entropy, Fourier analysis, non-intrusive measurement, time-frequency analysis, partial discharge

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Authors: Chulhyun Kim, Seungkyum Kim, Moon-soo Kim

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A variety of new technology-based services have emerged with the development of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs). Since technology-based services have technology-driven characteristics, the identification of relationships between technology-based services and ICTs would give meaningful implications. Thus, this paper proposes an approach for identifying the relationships between technology-based services and ICTs by analyzing patent documents. First, business model (BM) patents are classified into relevant service categories. Second, patent citation analysis is conducted to investigate the technological linkage and impacts between technology-based services and ICTs at macro level. Third, as a micro level analysis, patent co-classification analysis is employed to identify the technological linkage and coverage. The proposed approach could guide and help managers and designers of technology-based services to discover the opportunity of the development of new technology-based services in emerging service sectors.

Keywords: Technology-based Services, Information and Communication Technology (ICT), Business Model (BM) Patent, Patent Analysis, Technological Relationship

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Authors: Qurbanov Huseyn Nuraddin

Abstract:

Reliable food supply of the population of a country is one of the main directions of the state's economic policy. Grain growing, which is the basis of agriculture, is important in this area. In the cultivation of cereals on slopes, the application of equal amounts of mineral fertilizers to under the soil before sowing is a very important technological process. The low level of technical equipment in this area prevents producers from providing the country with the necessary quality cereals. Experience in the operation of modern technical means has shown that at present, there is a need to provide an equal amount of fertilizer to under the soil on slopes, fully meeting the agro-technical requirements. No fundamental changes have been made to the industrial machines that fertilize under the soil, and unequal application of fertilizers to under the soil on slopes has been applied. This technological process leads to the destruction of new seedlings and reduced productivity due to intolerance to frost during the winter for the plant planted in the fall. In special climatic conditions, there is an optimal fertilization rate for each agricultural product. The application of fertilizers to the soil is one of the conditions that increase their efficiency in the field. As can be seen, the development of a new technical proposal for fertilizing and plowing the slopes in equal amounts on the slopes, improving the technological and design parameters, taking into account the physical and mechanical properties of fertilizers, is very important. Taking into account the above-mentioned issues, a combined plough was developed in our laboratory. Combined plough carries out pre-sowing technological operation in the cultivation of cereals, providing a smooth equal amount of mineral fertilizers to under the soil on the slopes. Mathematical models of a smooth spreader that evenly distributes fertilizers in the field have been developed. Thus, diagrams and graphs obtained without distribution on the eight partitions of the smooth spreader are constructed under the inclined angles of the slopes. Percentage and productivity of equal distribution in the field were noted by practical and theoretical analysis.

Keywords: Combined plough, mineral fertilizer, equal sowing, fertilizer norm, grain-crops, sowing fertilizer.

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Mohammadian, Dariush Sattarzadeh, Mir Mohammad Javad Poor Hadi Hosseini

Abstract:

Population growth, urban development and urban buildup have disturbed the balance between the nature and the city, and so leading to the loss of quality of sustainability of proximity to rivers. While in the past, the sides of urban rivers were considered as urban green space. Urban rivers and their sides that have environmental, social and economic values are important to achieve sustainable development. So far, efforts have been made at various scales in various cities around the world to revitalize these areas. On the other hand, biophilic design is an innovative design approach in which attention to natural details and relation to nature is a fundamental concept. The purpose of this study is to provide an integrated framework of urban design using the potential of urban rivers (in order to increase sustainability) with a biophilic design approach to be used in cities in developing countries. The methodology of the research is based on the collection of data and information from research and projects including a study on biophilic design, investigations and projects related to the urban rivers, and a review of the literature on sustainable urban development. Then studying the boundary of urban rivers is completed by examining case samples. Eventually, integrated framework of urban design, to design the boundaries of urban rivers in the cities of developing countries is presented regarding the factors affecting the design of these areas. The result shows that according to this framework, the potential of the river banks is utilized to increase not only the environmental sustainability but also social, economic and physical stability with regard to water, light, and the usage of indigenous materials, etc.

Keywords: Urban rivers, biophilic design, urban sustainability, nature.

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Authors: Theodor D. Popescu

Abstract:

The paper presents a method for multivariate time series forecasting using Independent Component Analysis (ICA), as a preprocessing tool. The idea of this approach is to do the forecasting in the space of independent components (sources), and then to transform back the results to the original time series space. The forecasting can be done separately and with a different method for each component, depending on its time structure. The paper gives also a review of the main algorithms for independent component analysis in the case of instantaneous mixture models, using second and high-order statistics. The method has been applied in simulation to an artificial multivariate time series with five components, generated from three sources and a mixing matrix, randomly generated.

Keywords: Independent Component Analysis, second order statistics, simulation, time series forecasting

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Authors: Sudhir Jagtap, Kodge B. G., Shinde G. N., Devshette P. M

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Numerical analysis naturally finds applications in all fields of engineering and the physical sciences, but in the 21st century, the life sciences and even the arts have adopted elements of scientific computations. The numerical data analysis became key process in research and development of all the fields [6]. In this paper we have made an attempt to analyze the specified numerical patterns with reference to the association rule mining techniques with minimum confidence and minimum support mining criteria. The extracted rules and analyzed results are graphically demonstrated. Association rules are a simple but very useful form of data mining that describe the probabilistic co-occurrence of certain events within a database [7]. They were originally designed to analyze market-basket data, in which the likelihood of items being purchased together within the same transactions are analyzed.

Keywords: Numerical data analysis, Data Mining, Association Rule Mining

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Authors: José Antonio Esparza Isasa, Finn Overgaard Hansen, Peter Gorm Larsen

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This paper presents a new methodology to study power and energy consumption in mechatronic systems early in the development process. This new approach makes use of two modeling languages to represent and simulate embedded control software and electromechanical subsystems in the discrete event and continuous time domain respectively within a single co-model. This co-model enables an accurate representation of power and energy consumption and facilitates the analysis and development of both software and electro-mechanical subsystems in parallel. This makes the engineers aware of energy-wise implications of different design alternatives and enables early trade-off analysis from the beginning of the analysis and design activities.

Keywords: Energy consumption, embedded systems, modeldriven engineering, power awareness.

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Authors: Madina Hamiane, May Hashim Ali

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This paper presents the processing and analysis of ECG signals. The study is based on wavelet transform and uses exclusively the MATLAB environment. This study includes removing Baseline wander and further de-noising through wavelet transform and metrics such as signal-to noise ratio (SNR), Peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) and the mean squared error (MSE) are used to assess the efficiency of the de-noising techniques. Feature extraction is subsequently performed whereby signal features such as heart rate, rise and fall levels are extracted and the QRS complex was detected which helped in classifying the ECG signal. The classification is the last step in the analysis of the ECG signals and it is shown that these are successfully classified as Normal rhythm or Abnormal rhythm.  The final result proved the adequacy of using wavelet transform for the analysis of ECG signals.

Keywords: ECG Signal, QRS detection, thresholding, wavelet decomposition, feature extraction.

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Authors: C. Kumjeera, T. Unchim, B. Marungsri, A. Oonsivilai

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The study of piezoelectric material in the past was in T-Domain form; however, no one has studied piezoelectric material in the S-Domain form. This paper will present the piezoelectric material in the transfer function or S-Domain model. S-Domain is a well known mathematical model, used for analyzing the stability of the material and determining the stability limits. By using S-Domain in testing stability of piezoelectric material, it will provide a new tool for the scientific world to study this material in various forms.

Keywords: Hard disk drive, failure analysis, tool, time

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Authors: Mochammad Dewo, Sumarsono Sudarto

Abstract:

The Exponential Triple Smoothing Algorithm approach nowadays, which is used to anticipate the export value of Indonesia's two major commodities, coal and palm oil, has a Mean Percentage Absolute Error (MAPE) value of 30-50%, which may be considered as a "reasonable" forecasting mistake. Forecasting errors of more than 30% shall have a domino effect on industrial output, as extra production adds to raw material, manufacturing and storage expenses. Whereas, reaching an "excellent" classification with an error value of less than 10% will provide new investors and exporters with confidence in the commercial development of related sectors. Industrial growth will bring out a positive impact on economic development. It can be applied for other commodities if the forecast error is less than 10%. The purpose of this project is to create a forecasting technique that can produce precise forecasting results with an error of less than 10%. This research analyzes forecasting methods such as ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), ANN (Artificial Neural Network) and LSTM (Long-Short Term Memory). By providing a MAPE of 1%, this study reveals that ANN is the most successful strategy for forecasting coal and palm oil commodities in Indonesia.

Keywords: ANN, Artificial Neural Network, ARIMA, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, export value, forecast, LSTM, Long Short Term Memory.

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Authors: M. Lloret-Climent, J. Nescolarde-Selva

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The aim of this paper is to propose a mathematical model to determine invariant sets, set covering, orbits and, in particular, attractors in the set of tourism variables. Analysis was carried out based on a pre-designed algorithm and applying our interpretation of chaos theory developed in the context of General Systems Theory. This article sets out the causal relationships associated with tourist flows in order to enable the formulation of appropriate strategies. Our results can be applied to numerous cases. For example, in the analysis of tourist flows, these findings can be used to determine whether the behaviour of certain groups affects that of other groups and to analyse tourist behaviour in terms of the most relevant variables. Unlike statistical analyses that merely provide information on current data, our method uses orbit analysis to forecast, if attractors are found, the behaviour of tourist variables in the immediate future.

Keywords: Attractor, invariant set, orbits, tourist variables.

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Authors: Lamia Hammadi, Abdellah Ait Ouhman, Aomar Ibourk

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It is widely assumed that the case of Customs Supply Chain is classified as a complex system, due to not only the variety and large number of actors, but also their complex structural links, and the interactions between these actors, that’s why this system is subject to various types of Risks. The economic, political and social impacts of those risks are highly detrimental to countries, businesses and the public, for this reason, Risk management in the customs supply chain is becoming a crucial issue to ensure the sustainability, security and safety. The main characteristic of customs risk management approach is determining which goods and means of transport should be examined? To what extend? And where future compliance resources should be directed? The purposes of this article are, firstly to deal with the concept of customs supply chain, secondly present our risk management approach based on Cross Activity Based Costing (ABC) Method as an interactive tool to support decision making in customs risk management. Finally, analysis of case study of Moroccan customs to putting theory into practice and will thus draw together the various elements of a structured and efficient risk management approach.

Keywords: Cross ABC Method, Customs Supply Chain, Risk, Risk Management.

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Authors: Mauro Giacomini, Stefania Bertone, Carlo Mansi, Pietro Dulbecco, Vincenzo Savarino

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The prevalence of non organic constipation differs from country to country and the reliability of the estimate rates is uncertain. Moreover, the clinical relevance of subdividing the heterogeneous functional constipation disorders into pre-defined subgroups is largely unknown.. Aim: to estimate the prevalence of constipation in a population-based sample and determine whether clinical subgroups can be identified. An age and gender stratified sample population from 5 Italian cities was evaluated using a previously validated questionnaire. Data mining by cluster analysis was used to determine constipation subgroups. Results: 1,500 complete interviews were obtained from 2,083 contacted households (72%). Self-reported constipation correlated poorly with symptombased constipation found in 496 subjects (33.1%). Cluster analysis identified four constipation subgroups which correlated to subgroups identified according to pre-defined symptom criteria. Significant differences in socio-demographics and lifestyle were observed among subgroups.

Keywords: Cluster analysis, constipation, data mining, statistical analysis.

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Authors: A. Boudjemai , M.H. Bouanane, Mankour, R. Amri, H. Salem, B. Chouchaoui

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The purpose of this paper is to perform a multidisciplinary design and analysis (MDA) of honeycomb panels used in the satellites structural design. All the analysis is based on clamped-free boundary conditions. In the present work, detailed finite element models for honeycomb panels are developed and analysed. Experimental tests were carried out on a honeycomb specimen of which the goal is to compare the previous modal analysis made by the finite element method as well as the existing equivalent approaches. The obtained results show a good agreement between the finite element analysis, equivalent and tests results; the difference in the first two frequencies is less than 4% and less than 10% for the third frequency. The results of the equivalent model presented in this analysis are obtained with a good accuracy. Moreover, investigations carried out in this research relate to the honeycomb plate modal analysis under several aspects including the structural geometrical variation by studying the various influences of the dimension parameters on the modal frequency, the variation of core and skin material of the honeycomb. The various results obtained in this paper are promising and show that the geometry parameters and the type of material have an effect on the value of the honeycomb plate modal frequency.

Keywords: Satellite, honeycomb, finite element method, modal frequency, dynamic.

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