Search results for: range estimation

Authors: Swetha Priya Darshini Thammadi, Sateesh Kumar Pisini, Sanjay Kumar Shukla

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Source apportionment using Dispersion model depends primarily on the quality of Emission Inventory. In the present study, a CMB receptor model has been used to identify the sources of PM_2.5, while the AERMOD dispersion model has been used to account for missing sources of PM_2.5 in the Emission Inventory. A statistical approach has been developed to quantify the missing sources not considered in the Emission Inventory. The inventory of each grid was improved by adjusting emissions based on road lengths and deficit in measured and modelled concentrations. The results showed that in CMB analyses, fugitive sources - soil and road dust - contribute significantly to ambient PM_2.5 pollution. As a result, AERMOD significantly underestimated the ambient air concentration at most locations. The revised Emission Inventory showed a significant improvement in AERMOD performance which is evident through statistical tests.

Keywords: CMB, GIS, AERMOD, PM2.5, fugitive, emission inventory.

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Authors: Khin Thandar Lwin, Than Htike, Zaw Min Naing

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This paper introduces an intelligent system, which can be applied in the monitoring of vehicle speed using a single camera. The ability of motion tracking is extremely useful in many automation problems and the solution to this problem will open up many future applications. One of the most common problems in our daily life is the speed detection of vehicles on a highway. In this paper, a novel technique is developed to track multiple moving objects with their speeds being estimated using a sequence of video frames. Field test has been conducted to capture real-life data and the processed results were presented. Multiple object problems and noisy in data are also considered. Implementing this system in real-time is straightforward. The proposal can accurately evaluate the position and the orientation of moving objects in real-time. The transformations and calibration between the 2D image and the actual road are also considered.

Keywords: Motion Estimation, Image Analyses, Speed Detection

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Authors: S. Jalaja, A. M. Vijaya Prakash

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Recursive combination of an algorithm based on Karatsuba multiplication is exploited to design a generalized transpose and parallel Finite Impulse Response (FIR) Filter. Mid-range Karatsuba multiplication and Carry Save adder based on Karatsuba multiplication reduce time complexity for higher order multiplication implemented up to n-bit. As a result, we design modified N-tap Transpose and Parallel Symmetric FIR Filter Structure using Karatsuba algorithm. The mathematical formulation of the FFA Filter is derived. The proposed architecture involves significantly less area delay product (APD) then the existing block implementation. By adopting retiming technique, hardware cost is reduced further. The filter architecture is designed by using 90 nm technology library and is implemented by using cadence EDA Tool. The synthesized result shows better performance for different word length and block size. The design achieves switching activity reduction and low power consumption by applying with and without retiming for different combination of the circuit. The proposed structure achieves more than a half of the power reduction by adopting with and without retiming techniques compared to the earlier design structure. As a proof of the concept for block size 16 and filter length 64 for CKA method, it achieves a 51% as well as 70% less power by applying retiming technique, and for CSA method it achieves a 57% as well as 77% less power by applying retiming technique compared to the previously proposed design.

Keywords: Carry save adder Karatsuba multiplication, mid-range Karatsuba multiplication, modified FFA, transposed filter, retiming.

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Authors: Brian Considine, Aonghus McNabola, John Gallagher, Prashant Kumar

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Passive air pollution control devices known as aspiration efficiency reducers (AER) have been developed using aspiration efficiency (AE) concepts. Their purpose is to reduce the concentration of particulate matter (PM) drawn into a building air handling unit (AHU) through alterations in the inlet design improving energy consumption. In this paper an examination is conducted into the effect of installing a deflector system around an AER-AHU inlet for both a forward and rear-facing orientations relative to the wind. The results of the study found that these deflectors are an effective passive control method for reducing AE at various ambient wind speeds over a range of microparticles of varying diameter. The deflector system was found to induce a large wake zone at low ambient wind speeds for a rear-facing AER-AHU, resulting in significantly lower AE in comparison to without. As the wind speed increased, both contained a wake zone but have much lower concentration gradients with the deflectors. For the forward-facing models, the deflector system at low ambient wind speed was preferred at higher Stokes numbers but there was negligible difference as the Stokes number decreased. Similarly, there was no significant difference at higher wind speeds across the Stokes number range tested. The results demonstrate that a deflector system is a viable passive control method for the reduction of ventilation energy consumption.

Keywords: Aspiration efficiency, energy, particulate matter, ventilation.

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Authors: Hamidreza Hoshyarmanesh, Hosein Madieh, Sanju Lama, Yaser Maddahi, Garnette R. Sutherland, Kourosh Zareinia

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This paper illustrates the concept of an algorithm to register specified markers on the neuroArm surgical manipulators, an image-guided MR-compatible tele-operated robot for microsurgery and stereotaxy. Two range-finding algorithms, namely time-of-flight and phase-shift, are evaluated for registration and supervisory control. The time-of-flight approach is implemented in a semi-field experiment to determine the precise position of a tiny retro-reflective moving object. The moving object simulates a surgical tool tip. The tool is a target that would be connected to the neuroArm end-effector during surgery inside the magnet bore of the MR imaging system. In order to apply flight approach, a 905-nm pulsed laser diode and an avalanche photodiode are utilized as the transmitter and receiver, respectively. For the experiment, a high frequency time to digital converter was designed using a field-programmable gate arrays. In the phase-shift approach, a continuous green laser beam with a wavelength of 530 nm was used as the transmitter. Results showed that a positioning error of 0.1 mm occurred when the scanner-target point distance was set in the range of 2.5 to 3 meters. The effectiveness of this non-contact approach exhibited that the method could be employed as an alternative for conventional mechanical registration arm. Furthermore, the approach is not limited by physical contact and extension of joint angles.

Keywords: 3D laser scanner, intraoperative MR imaging, neuroArm, real time registration, robot-assisted surgery, supervisory control.

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Authors: Mir Shahriar Emami, Mohammad Reza Meybodi

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Prime Factorization based on Quantum approach in two phases has been performed. The first phase has been achieved at Quantum computer and the second phase has been achieved at the classic computer (Post Processing). At the second phase the goal is to estimate the period r of equation xrN ≡ 1 and to find the prime factors of the composite integer N in classic computer. In this paper we present a method based on Randomized Approach for estimation the period r with a satisfactory probability and the composite integer N will be factorized therefore with the Randomized Approach even the gesture of the period is not exactly the real period at least we can find one of the prime factors of composite N. Finally we present some important points for designing an Emulator for Quantum Computer Simulation.

Keywords: Quantum Prime Factorization, RandomizedAlgorithms, Quantum Computer Simulation, Quantum Computation.

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Authors: Malika Fekih, Mohamed Saighi

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Many methods exist for either measuring or estimating evaporation from free water surfaces. Evaporation pans provide one of the simplest, inexpensive, and most widely used methods of estimating evaporative losses. In this study, the rate of evaporation starting from a water surface was calculated by modeling with application to dams in wet, arid and semi arid areas in Algeria. We calculate the evaporation rate from the pan using the energy budget equation, which offers the advantage of an ease of use, but our results do not agree completely with the measurements taken by the National Agency of areas carried out using dams located in areas of different climates. For that, we develop a mathematical model to simulate evaporation. This simulation uses an energy budget on the level of a vat of measurement and a Computational Fluid Dynamics (Fluent). Our calculation of evaporation rate is compared then by the two methods and with the measures of areas in situ.

Keywords: Evaporation, Energy budget, Surface water temperature, CFD, Dams

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Authors: Paula Simões, Isabel Natário

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This paper reviews a number of theoretical aspects for implementing an explicit spatial perspective in econometrics for modelling non-continuous data, in general, and count data, in particular. It provides an overview of the several spatial econometric approaches that are available to model data that are collected with reference to location in space, from the classical spatial econometrics approaches to the recent developments on spatial econometrics to model count data, in a Bayesian hierarchical setting. Considerable attention is paid to the inferential framework, necessary for structural consistent spatial econometric count models, incorporating spatial lag autocorrelation, to the corresponding estimation and testing procedures for different assumptions, to the constrains and implications embedded in the various specifications in the literature. This review combines insights from the classical spatial econometrics literature as well as from hierarchical modeling and analysis of spatial data, in order to look for new possible directions on the processing of count data, in a spatial hierarchical Bayesian econometric context.

Keywords: Spatial data analysis, spatial econometrics, Bayesian hierarchical models, count data.

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Authors: Efat Lali Dastjerdi, Hassan Sadeghi Naeini, Hadi Sanjari

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One of the important steps in a safety and risk management system is the economical evaluation of occupational accident and diseases costs in order to decrease accidents from reoccurring in the workplace. This study proposed a plausible method for calculating occupational accident costs and illnesses in work place. This method design for cost estimation takes into account both the personnel, organizational level as well as the community level especially intended for an Iranian work place. The research indicates that a using systematic method for calculating costs which also provides risk evaluation can help managers to plan correctly the investment in health and safety measures. Using this method is that not only is it comprehensive, easy and practical and could be applied in practice by a manager within a short period of time but it also shows the importance of accident costs as well as calculates the real cost of an accident and illnesses.

Keywords: ost calculating model, Economics of health and Safety.

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Authors: Yong-Sung Kim, Je-Seok Shin, Ho-Jun Jo Jin-O Kim

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Home Energy Management System (HEMS), which makes the residential consumers, contribute to the demand response is attracting attention in recent years. An aim of HEMS is to minimize their electricity cost by controlling the use of their appliances according to electricity price. The use of appliances in HEMS may be affected by some conditions such as external temperature and electricity price. Therefore, the user’s usage pattern of appliances should be modeled according to the external conditions, and the resultant usage pattern is related to the user’s comfortability on use of each appliances. This paper proposes a methodology to model the usage pattern based on the historical data with the copula function. Through copula function, the usage range of each appliance can be obtained and is able to satisfy the appropriate user’s comfort according to the external conditions for next day. Within the usage range, an optimal scheduling for appliances would be conducted so as to minimize an electricity cost with considering user’s comfort. Among the home appliance, electric heater (EH) is a representative appliance, which is affected by the external temperature. In this paper, an optimal scheduling algorithm for an electric heater (EH) is addressed based on the method of branch and bound. As a result, scenarios for the EH usage are obtained according to user’s comfort levels and then the residential consumer would select the best scenario. The case study shows the effects of the proposed algorithm compared with the traditional operation of the EH, and it represents impacts of the comfort level on the scheduling result.

Keywords: Load scheduling, usage pattern, user’s comfort, copula function, branch, bound, electric heater.

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Authors: Mahmoud Zarrini

Abstract:

Avalanche release of snow has been modeled in the present studies. Snow is assumed to be represented by semi-solid and the governing equations have been studied from the concept of continuum approach. The dynamical equations have been solved for two different zones [starting zone and track zone] by using appropriate initial and boundary conditions. Effect of density (ρ), Eddy viscosity (η), Slope angle (θ), Slab depth (R) on the flow parameters have been observed in the present studies. Numerical methods have been employed for computing the non linear differential equations. One of the most interesting and fundamental innovation in the present studies is getting initial condition for the computation of velocity by numerical approach. This information of the velocity has obtained through the concept of fracture mechanics applicable to snow. The results on the flow parameters have found to be in qualitative agreement with the published results.

Keywords: Snow avalanche, fracture mechanics, avalanche velocity, avalanche zones.

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Authors: Evangelos G. Karvelas, Christos Liosis, Andreas Theodorakakos, Theodoros E. Karakasidis

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In the present work, a numerical method for the estimation of the appropriate gradient magnetic fields for optimum driving of the particles into the desired area inside the human body is presented. The proposed method combines Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Discrete Element Method (DEM) and Covariance Matrix Adaptation (CMA) evolution strategy for the magnetic navigation of nanoparticles. It is based on an iteration procedure that intents to eliminate the deviation of the nanoparticles from a desired path. Hence, the gradient magnetic field is constantly adjusted in a suitable way so that the particles’ follow as close as possible to a desired trajectory. Using the proposed method, it is obvious that the diameter of particles is crucial parameter for an efficient navigation. In addition, increase of particles' diameter decreases their deviation from the desired path. Moreover, the navigation method can navigate nanoparticles into the desired areas with efficiency approximately 99%.

Keywords: CFD, CMA evolution strategy, DEM, magnetic navigation, spherical particles.

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Authors: Hidir S. Nogay

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In this study, two systems were created to predict interior temperature in induction motor. One of them consisted of a simple ANN model which has two layers, ten input parameters and one output parameter. The other one consisted of eight ANN models connected each other as cascaded. Cascaded ANN system has 17 inputs. Main reason of cascaded system being used in this study is to accomplish more accurate estimation by increasing inputs in the ANN system. Cascaded ANN system is compared with simple conventional ANN model to prove mentioned advantages. Dataset was obtained from experimental applications. Small part of the dataset was used to obtain more understandable graphs. Number of data is 329. 30% of the data was used for testing and validation. Test data and validation data were determined for each ANN model separately and reliability of each model was tested. As a result of this study, it has been understood that the cascaded ANN system produced more accurate estimates than conventional ANN model.

Keywords: Cascaded neural network, internal temperature, three-phase induction motor, inverter.

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Authors: N. Jinesh, K. Shankar

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This article presents a method of using the one dimensional piezo-electric patch on beam model for structural identification. A hybrid element constituted of one dimensional beam element and a PZT sensor is used with reduced material properties. This model is convenient and simple for identification of beams. Accuracy of this element is first verified against a corresponding 3D finite element model (FEM). The structural identification is carried out as an inverse problem whereby parameters are identified by minimizing the deviation between the predicted and measured voltage response of the patch, when subjected to excitation. A non-classical optimization algorithm Particle Swarm Optimization is used to minimize this objective function. The signals are polluted with 5% Gaussian noise to simulate experimental noise. The proposed method is applied on beam structure and identified parameters are stiffness and damping. The model is also validated experimentally.

Keywords: Structural identification, PZT patches, inverse problem, particle swarm optimization.

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Authors: Jiri Plocek, Petr Holec, Simona Kubickova, Barbara Pacakova, Irena Matulkova, Alice Mantlikova, Ivan Nemec, Daniel Niznansky, Jana Vejpravova

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This article presents summary on preparation and characterization of zinc, copper, cadmium and cobalt chromite nanocrystals, embedded in an amorphous silica matrix. The ZnCr2O4/SiO2, CuCr2O4/SiO2, CdCr2O4/SiO2 and CoCr2O4/SiO2 nanocomposites were prepared by a conventional sol-gel method under acid catalysis. Final heat treatment of the samples was carried out at temperatures in the range of 900−1200 ◦C to adjust the phase composition and the crystallite size, respectively. The resulting samples were characterized by Powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD), High Resolution Transmission Electron Microscopy (HRTEM), Raman/FTIR spectroscopy and magnetic measurements. Formation of the spinel phase was confirmed in all samples. The average size of the nanocrystals was determined from the PXRD data and by direct particle size observation on HRTEM; both results were correlated. The mean particle size (reviewed by HRTEM) was in the range from ∼4 to 46 nm. The results showed that the sol-gel method can be effectively used for preparation of the spinel chromite nanoparticles embedded in the silica matrix and the particle size is driven by the type of the cation A2+ in the spinel structure and the temperature of the final heat treatment. Magnetic properties of the nanocrystals were found to be just moderately modified in comparison to the bulk phases.

Keywords: Chromite, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, agnetic properties, nanocomposites, Raman spectroscopy, Rietveld refinement, sol-gel method, spinel.

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Authors: M. Al-Majidi, A. Lampropoulos, A. Cundy

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Geopolymer (cement-free) concrete is the most promising green alternative to ordinary Portland cement concrete and other cementitious materials. While a range of different geopolymer concretes have been produced, a common feature of these concretes is heat curing treatment which is essential in order to provide sufficient mechanical properties in the early age. However, there are several practical issues with the application of heat curing in large-scale structures. The purpose of this study is to develop cement-free concrete without heat curing treatment. Experimental investigations were carried out in two phases. In the first phase (Phase A), the optimum content of water, polycarboxylate based superplasticizer contents and potassium silicate activator in the mix was determined. In the second stage (Phase B), the effect of ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBFS) incorporation on the compressive strength of fly ash (FA) and Slag based geopolymer mixtures was evaluated. Setting time and workability were also conducted alongside with compressive tests. The results showed that as the slag content was increased the setting time was reduced while the compressive strength was improved. The obtained compressive strength was in the range of 40-50 MPa for 50% slag replacement mixtures. Furthermore, the results indicated that increment of water and superplasticizer content resulted to retarding of the setting time and slight reduction of the compressive strength. The compressive strength of the examined mixes was considerably increased as potassium silicate content was increased.

Keywords: Fly ash, geopolymer, potassium silicate, room temperature treatment, slag.

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Authors: Alexander Schulz, Ingrid Rottensteiner, Manfred Neumann, Michael Wehse, Johann Wassermann

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Self-sensing estimates the air gap within an electro magnetic path by analyzing the bearing coil current and/or voltage waveform. The self-sensing concept presented in this paper has been developed within the research project “Active Magnetic Bearings with Supreme Reliability" and is used for position sensor fault detection. Within this new concept gap calculation is carried out by an alldigital analysis of the digitized coil current and voltage waveform. For analysis those time periods within the PWM period are used, which give the best results. Additionally, the concept allows the digital compensation of nonlinearities, for example magnetic saturation, without degrading signal quality. This increases the accuracy and robustness of the air gap estimation and additionally reduces phase delays. Beneath an overview about the developed concept first measurement results are presented which show the potential of this all-digital self-sensing concept.

Keywords: digital signal analysis, active magnetic bearing, reliability, fault detection.

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Authors: M. Debyeche, J.P Haton, A. Houacine

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The paper presents a complete discrete statistical framework, based on a novel vector quantization (VQ) front-end process. This new VQ approach performs an optimal distribution of VQ codebook components on HMM states. This technique that we named the distributed vector quantization (DVQ) of hidden Markov models, succeeds in unifying acoustic micro-structure and phonetic macro-structure, when the estimation of HMM parameters is performed. The DVQ technique is implemented through two variants. The first variant uses the K-means algorithm (K-means- DVQ) to optimize the VQ, while the second variant exploits the benefits of the classification behavior of neural networks (NN-DVQ) for the same purpose. The proposed variants are compared with the HMM-based baseline system by experiments of specific Arabic consonants recognition. The results show that the distributed vector quantization technique increase the performance of the discrete HMM system.

Keywords: Hidden Markov Model, Vector Quantization, Neural Network, Speech Recognition, Arabic Language

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Authors: Kaige Shi, Chao Jiang, Xin Li

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The swirl gripper is an electrically activated noncontact handling device that uses swirling airflow to generate a lifting force. This force can be used to pick up a workpiece placed underneath the swirl gripper without any contact. It is applicable, for example, in the semiconductor wafer production line, where contact must be avoided during the handling and moving of a workpiece to minimize damage. When a workpiece levitates underneath a swirl gripper, the gap height between them is crucial for safe handling. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a method to estimate the levitation gap height by detecting pressure at two points. The method is based on theoretical model of the swirl gripper, and has been experimentally verified. Furthermore, the force between the gripper and the workpiece can also be estimated using the detected pressure. As a result, the nonlinear relationship between the force and gap height can be linearized by adjusting the rotating speed of the fan in the swirl gripper according to the estimated force and gap height. The linearized relationship is expected to enhance handling stability of the workpiece.

Keywords: Swirl gripper, noncontact handling, levitation, gap height estimation.

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Authors: Ioan Popa, Radu Lupu, Cristiana Tudor

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In this paper, we apply the FM methodology to the cross-section of Romanian-listed common stocks and investigate the explanatory power of market beta on the cross-section of commons stock returns from Bucharest Stock Exchange. Various assumptions are empirically tested, such us linearity, market efficiency, the “no systematic effect of non-beta risk" hypothesis or the positive expected risk-return trade-off hypothesis. We find that the Romanian stock market shows the same properties as the other emerging markets in terms of efficiency and significance of the linear riskreturn models. Our analysis included weekly returns from January 2002 until May 2010 and the portfolio formation, estimation and testing was performed in a rolling manner using 51 observations (one year) for each stage of the analysis.

Keywords: Bucharest Stock Exchange, Fama-Macbeth methodology, systematic risk, non-linear risk-return dependence.

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Authors: Panudet Saengseedam, Nanthachai Kantanantha

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This paper proposes a linear mixed model (LMM) with spatial effects to forecast rice and cassava yields in Thailand at the same time. A multivariate conditional autoregressive (MCAR) model is assumed to present the spatial effects. A Bayesian method is used for parameter estimation via Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The model is applied to the rice and cassava yields monthly data which have been extracted from the Office of Agricultural Economics, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives of Thailand. The results show that the proposed model has better performance in most provinces in both fitting part and validation part compared to the simple exponential smoothing and conditional auto regressive models (CAR) from our previous study.

Keywords: Bayesian method, Linear mixed model, Multivariate conditional autoregressive model, Spatial time series.

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Authors: Marios M. Hadjiandreou, Raul Conejeros, Ian Wilson

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This study presents a mathematical modeling approach to the planning of HIV therapies on an individual basis. The model replicates clinical data from typical-progressors to AIDS for all stages of the disease with good agreement. Clinical data from rapid-progressors and long-term non-progressors is also matched by estimation of immune system parameters only. The ability of the model to reproduce these phenomena validates the formulation, a fact which is exploited in the investigation of effective therapies. The therapy investigation suggests that, unlike continuous therapy, structured treatment interruptions (STIs) are able to control the increase in both the drug-sensitive and drug-resistant virus population and, hence, prevent the ultimate progression from HIV to AIDS. The optimization results further suggest that even patients characterised by the same progression type can respond very differently to the same treatment and that the latter should be designed on a case-by-case basis. Such a methodology is presented here.

Keywords: AIDS, chemotherapy, mathematical modeling, optimal control, progression.

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Authors: Alexey V. Klyuev, Arkady V. Yakimov, Mikhail I. Ryzhkin, Andrey V. Klyuev

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Fluctuations of Schottky diode parameters in a structure of the mixer are investigated. These fluctuations are manifested in two ways. At the first, they lead to fluctuations in the transfer factor that is lead to the amplitude fluctuations in the signal of intermediate frequency. On the basis of the measurement data of 1/f noise of the diode at forward current, the estimation of a spectrum of relative fluctuations in transfer factor of the mixer is executed. Current dependence of the spectrum of relative fluctuations in transfer factor of the mixer and dependence of the spectrum of relative fluctuations in transfer factor of the mixer on the amplitude of the heterodyne signal are investigated. At the second, fluctuations in parameters of the diode lead to occurrence of 1/f noise in the output signal of the mixer. This noise limits the sensitivity of the mixer to the value of received signal.

Keywords: Current-voltage characteristic, fluctuations, mixer, Schottky diode, 1/f noise.

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Authors: Sangeeta Singh, Pankaj Kumar, P. N. Kondekar

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In this paper, the transient device performance analysis of n-type Gate Inside JunctionLess Transistor (GI-JLT) has been evaluated. 3-D Bohm Quantum Potential (BQP) transport device simulation has been used to evaluate the delay and power dissipation performance. GI-JLT has a number of desirable device parameters such as reduced propagation delay, dynamic power dissipation, power and delay product, intrinsic gate delay and energy delay product as compared to Gate-all-around transistors GAA-JLT. In addition to this, various other device performance parameters namely, on/off current ratio, short channel effects (SCE), transconductance Generation Factor (TGF) and unity gain cut-off frequency (fT ) and subthreshold slope (SS) of the GI-JLT and GAA-JLT have been analyzed and compared. GI-JLT shows better device performance characteristics than GAA-JLT for low power and high frequency applications, because of its larger gate electrostatic control on the device operation.

Keywords: Gate-inside junctionless transistor GI-JLT, Gate-all-around junctionless transistor GAA-JLT, propagation delay, power delay product.

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Authors: A. Alirezaei, S. Vahdani

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This study estimates the seismic demands of tall buildings with central symmetric setbacks by using nonlinear time history analysis. Three setback structures, all 60-story high with setback in three levels, are used for evaluation. The effects of irregularities occurred by setback are evaluated by determination of global-drift, story-displacement and story drift. Story-displacement is modified by roof displacement and first story displacement and story drift is modified by global drift. All results are calculated at the center of mass and in x and y direction. Also the absolute values of these quantities are determined. The results show that increasing of vertical irregularities increases the global drift of the structure and enlarges the deformations in the height of the structure. It is also observed that the effects of geometry irregularity in the seismic deformations of setback structures are higher than those of mass irregularity.

Keywords: Deformation demand, drift, setback, tall building.

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Authors: K. Allaw, J. Adjizian Gerard, M. Chehayeb, A. Raad, W. Fahs, A. Badran, A. Fakherdin, H. Madi, N. Badaro Saliba

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Population estimation using Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing faces many obstacles such as the determination of permanent residents. A permanent resident is an individual who stays and works during all four seasons in his village. So, all those who move towards other cities or villages are excluded from this category. The aim of this study is to identify the factors affecting the percentage of permanent residents in a village and to determine the attributed weight to each factor. To do so, six factors have been chosen (slope, precipitation, temperature, number of services, time to Central Business District (CBD) and the proximity to conflict zones) and each one of those factors has been evaluated using one of the following data: the contour lines map of 50 m, the precipitation map, four temperature maps and data collected through surveys. The weighting procedure has been done using decision tree method. As a result of this procedure, temperature (50.8%) and percentage of precipitation (46.5%) are the most influencing factors.

Keywords: Remote sensing and GIS, permanent residence, decision tree, Lebanon.

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Authors: Chengli Liu, C. K. M. Lee

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The tradition competitive newsvendor game assumes decision makers are rational. However, there are behavioral biases when people make decisions, such as loss aversion, mental accounting and overconfidence. Overestimation of a subject’s own performance is one type of overconfidence. The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of the overestimated demand in the newsvendor competitive game with two players. This study builds a competitive newsvendor game model where newsvendors have private information of their demands, which is overestimated. At the same time, demands of each newsvendor forecasted by a third party institution are available. This research shows that the overestimation leads to demand steal effect, which reduces the competitor’s order quantity. However, the overall supply of the product increases due to overestimation. This study illustrates the boundary condition for the overestimated newsvendor to have the equilibrium order drop due to the demand steal effect from the other newsvendor. A newsvendor who has higher critical fractile will see its equilibrium order decrease with the drop of estimation level from the other newsvendor.

Keywords: Bias, competitive newsvendor, Nash equilibrium, overestimation.

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Authors: Asep Bayu Dani Nandiyanto, Asep Suhendi, Yutaka Kisakibaru, Takashi Ogi, Kikuo Okuyama

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An ordered porous antimony-doped tin oxide (ATO) film was successfully prepared using a simple coating process with colloidal templates. The facile production was effective when a combination of 16-nm ATO (as a model of an inorganic nanoparticle) and polystyrene (PS) spheres (as a model of the template) weresimply coated to produce a composite ATO/PS film. Heat treatment was then used to remove the PS and produce the porous film. The porous film with a spherical pore shape and a highly ordered porous structure could be obtained. A potential way for the control of pore size could be also achieved by changing initial template size. The theoretical explanation and mechanism of porous formation were also added, which would be important for the scaling-up prediction and estimation.

Keywords: Porous structure film; ATO particle; Ultra-low refractive index; vertical drop method; Low-density material;

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

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Today, the need for water sources is swiftly increasing due to population growth. At the same time, it is known that some regions will face with shortage of water and drought because of the global warming and climate change. In this context, evaluation and analysis of hydrological data such as the observed trends, drought and flood prediction of short term flow has great deal of importance. The most accurate selection probability distribution is important to describe the low flow statistics for the studies related to drought analysis. As in many basins In Turkey, Gediz River basin will be affected enough by the drought and will decrease the amount of used water. The aim of this study is to derive appropriate probability distributions for frequency analysis of annual minimum flows at 6 gauging stations of the Gediz Basin. After applying 10 different probability distributions, six different parameter estimation methods and 3 fitness test, the Pearson 3 distribution and general extreme values distributions were found to give optimal results.

Keywords: Gediz Basin, goodness-of-fit tests, Minimum flows, probability distribution.

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Authors: A. R. Salimi, M. Esmaeili, B. Salehi

Abstract:

The development and extension of large cities induced a need for shallow tunnel in soft ground of building areas. Estimation of ground settlement caused by the tunnel excavation is important engineering point. In this paper, prediction of surface subsidence caused by tunneling in one section of seventh line of Tehran subway is considered. On the basis of studied geotechnical conditions of the region, tunnel with the length of 26.9km has been excavated applying a mechanized method using an EPB-TBM with a diameter of 9.14m. In this regard, settlement is estimated utilizing both analytical and numerical finite element method. The numerical method shows that the value of settlement in this section is 5cm. Besides, the analytical consequences (Bobet and Loganathan-Polous) are 5.29 and 12.36cm, respectively. According to results of this study, due tosaturation of this section, there are good agreement between Bobet and numerical methods. Therefore, tunneling processes in this section needs a special consolidation measurement and support system before the passage of tunnel boring machine.

Keywords: TBM, Subsidence, Numerical Method, Analytical Method.

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