Search results for: planning.

Authors: Sotirios N. Raptis

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The paper links social needs to social classes by the creation of cohorts of public services matched as causes to other ones as effects using cause-effect (CE) models. It then compares these associations using CE and typical regression methods (LR, ARMA). The paper discusses such public service groupings offered in Scotland in the long term to estimate the risk of multiple causes or effects that can ultimately reduce the healthcare cost by linking the next services to the likely causes of them. The same generic goal can be achieved using LR or ARMA and differences are discussed. The work uses Health and Social Care (H&Sc) public services data from 11 service packs offered by Public Health Services (PHS) Scotland that boil down to 110 single-attribute year series, called ’factors’. The study took place at Macmillan Cancer Support, UK and Abertay University, Dundee, from 2020 to 2023. The paper discusses CE relationships as a main method and compares sample findings with Linear Regression (LR), ARMA, to see how the services are linked. Relationships found were between smoking-related healthcare provision, mental-health-related services, and epidemiological weight in Primary-1-Education Body-Mass-Index (BMI) in children as CE models. Insurance companies and public policymakers can pack CE-linked services in plans such as those for the elderly, low-income people, in the long term. The linkage of services was confirmed allowing more accurate resource planning.

Keywords: Probability, regression, cause-effect cohorts, data frames, services, prediction.

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Authors: Giovanni Masala, Stefania Marica

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Forecasting electricity load plays a crucial role regards decision making and planning for economical purposes. Besides, in the light of the recent privatization and deregulation of the power industry, the forecasting of future electricity load turned out to be a very challenging problem. Empirical data about electricity load highlights a clear seasonal behavior (higher load during the winter season), which is partly due to climatic effects. We also emphasize the presence of load periodicity at a weekly basis (electricity load is usually lower on weekends or holidays) and at daily basis (electricity load is clearly influenced by the hour). Finally, a long-term trend may depend on the general economic situation (for example, industrial production affects electricity load). All these features must be captured by the model. The purpose of this paper is then to build an hourly electricity load model. The deterministic component of the model requires non-linear regression and Fourier series while we will investigate the stochastic component through econometrical tools. The calibration of the parameters’ model will be performed by using data coming from the Italian market in a 6 year period (2007- 2012). Then, we will perform a Monte Carlo simulation in order to compare the simulated data respect to the real data (both in-sample and out-of-sample inspection). The reliability of the model will be deduced thanks to standard tests which highlight a good fitting of the simulated values.

Keywords: ARMA-GARCH process, electricity load, fitting tests, Fourier series, Monte Carlo simulation, non-linear regression.

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Authors: S. M. Amin Hosseini, Oriol Pons, Albert de la Fuente

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After natural disasters, displaced people (DP) require important numbers of housing units, which have to be erected quickly due to emergency pressures. These tight timeframes can cause the multiplication of the environmental construction impacts. These negative impacts worsen the already high energy consumption and pollution caused by the building sector. Indeed, post-disaster housing, which is often carried out without pre-planning, usually causes high negative environmental impacts, besides other economic and social impacts. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a suitable strategy to deal with this problem which also takes into account the instability of its causes, like changing ratio between rural and urban population. To this end, this study aims to present a model that assists decision-makers to choose the most suitable building technology for post-disaster housing units. This model focuses on the alternatives sustainability and fulfillment of the stakeholders’ satisfactions. Four building technologies have been analyzed to determine the most sustainability technology and to validate the presented model. In 2003, Bam earthquake DP had their temporary housing units (THUs) built using these four technologies: autoclaved aerated concrete blocks (AAC), concrete masonry unit (CMU), pressed reeds panel (PR), and 3D sandwich panel (3D). The results of this analysis confirm that PR and CMU obtain the highest sustainability indexes. However, the second life scenario of THUs could have considerable impacts on the results.

Keywords: Sustainability, post-disaster temporary housing, integrated value model for sustainability assessment (MIVES), life cycle assessment (LCA).

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Authors: Phusit Phukamchanoad

Abstract:

This study aimed to analyse the application of sufficiency economy in students’ ways of life on campus at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. Data was gathered through 394 questionnaires. The study results found that the majority of students were confident that “where there’s a will, there’s a way.” Overall, the students applied the sufficiency economy at a great level, along with being persons who do not exploit others, were satisfied with living their lives moderately, according to the sufficiency economy. Importance was also given to kindness and generosity. Importantly, students were happy with living according to their individual circumstances and status at the present. They saw the importance of joint life planning, self-development, and self-dependence, always learning to be satisfied with “adequate”. As for their practices and ways of life, socially relational activities rated highly, especially initiation activities for underclassmen at the university and the seniority system, which are suitable for activities on campus. Furthermore, the students knew how to build a career and find supplemental income, knew how to earnestly work according to convention to finish work, and preferred to study elective subjects which directly benefit career-wise. The students’ application of sufficiency economy philosophy principles depended on their lives in their hometowns. The students from the provinces regularly applied sufficiency economy philosophy to their lives, for example, by being frugal, steadfast, determined, avoiding negligence, and making economical spending plans; more so than the students from the capital.

Keywords: Application of Sufficiency Economy Philosophy, Way of Living, Undergraduate Students.

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Authors: M. Rossini, A. Portioli Studacher

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The market competition is moving from the single firm to the whole supply chain because of increasing competition and growing need for operational efficiencies and customer orientation. Supply chain management allows companies to look beyond their organizational boundaries to develop and leverage resources and capabilities of their supply chain partners. This creates competitive advantages in the marketplace and because of this SCM has acquired strategic importance. Lean Approach is a management strategy that focuses on reducing every type of waste present in an organization. This approach is becoming more and more popular among supply chain managers. The supply chain application of lean approach is not frequent. In particular, it is not well studied which are the impacts of lean approach principles in a supply chain context. In literature there are only few studies aimed at understanding the qualitative impact of the lean approach in supply chains. Therefore, the goal of this research work is to study the impacts of lean principles implementation along a supply chain. To achieve this, a simulation model of a threeechelon multi-product supply chain has been built. Kanban system (and several priority policies) and setup time reduction degrees are implemented in the lean-configured supply chain to apply pull and lot-sizing decrease principles respectively. To evaluate the benefits of lean approach, lean supply chain is compared with an EOQ-configured supply chain. The simulation results show that Kanban system and setup-time reduction improve inventory stock level. They also show that logistics efforts are affected to lean implementation degree. The paper concludes describing performances of lean supply chain in different contexts.

Keywords: Inventory policy, Kanban, lean supply chain, simulation study, supply chain management, planning.

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Authors: N. Chegeni, M. J. Tahmasebi Birgani

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Nowadays, in most radiotherapy departments, the commercial treatment planning systems (TPS) used to calculate dose distributions needs to be verified; therefore, quick, easy-to-use and low cost dose distribution algorithms are desirable to test and verify the performance of the TPS. In this paper, we put forth an analytical method to calculate the phantom scatter contribution and depth dose on the central axis based on the equivalent square concept. Then, this method was generalized to calculate the profiles at any depth and for several field shapes regular or irregular fields under symmetry and asymmetry photon beam conditions. Varian 2100 C/D and Siemens Primus Plus Linacs with 6 and 18 MV photon beam were used for irradiations. Percentage depth doses (PDDs) were measured for a large number of square fields for both energies, and for 45^º wedges which were employed to obtain the profiles in any depth. To assess the accuracy of the calculated profiles, several profile measurements were carried out for some treatment fields. The calculated and measured profiles were compared by gamma-index calculation. All γ–index calculations were based on a 3% dose criterion and a 3 mm dose-to-agreement (DTA) acceptance criterion. The γ values were less than 1 at most points. However, the maximum γ observed was about 1.10 in the penumbra region in most fields and in the central area for the asymmetric fields. This analytical approach provides a generally quick and fairly accurate algorithm to calculate dose distribution for some treatment fields in conventional radiotherapy.

Keywords: Dose distribution, equivalent field, asymmetric field, irregular field.

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Authors: E. Cintura, M. I. Gomes

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Nowadays, sustainable development issues have a key role in the planning of the man-made environment. Ensuring this development means limiting the impact of human activity on nature. It is essential to secure healthy places and good living conditions. For these reasons, indoor air quality and building materials play a fundamental role in sustainable architectural projects. These factors significantly affect human health: they can radically change the quality of the internal environment and energy consumption. The use of natural materials such as earth has many beneficial aspects in comfort and indoor air quality. As well as advantages in the environmental impact of the construction, they ensure a low energy consumption. Since they are already present in nature, their production and use do not require a high-energy consumption. Furthermore, they have a high thermo-hygrometric capacity, being able to absorb moisture, contributing positively to indoor conditions. Indoor air quality is closely related to relative humidity. For these reasons, it can be affirmed that the use of earth materials guarantees a sustainable development and at the same time improves the health of the building users. This paper summarizes several researches that demonstrate the importance of indoor air quality for human health and how it strictly depends on the building materials used. Eco-efficient plasters are also considered: earth and ash mortar. The bibliography consulted has the objective of supporting future experimental and laboratory analyzes. It is necessary to carry on with research by the use of simulations and testing to confirm the hygrothermal properties of eco-efficient plasters and therefore their ability to improve indoor air quality.

Keywords: Hygroscopicity, hygrothermal comfort, mortar, plaster.

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Authors: Guanglin Song

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Situated within the context of China's tiered medical treatment system, this study aims to analyze spatial causes of urban healthcare access difficulties from the perspective of the configuration of healthcare facilities. A social network analysis approach is employed to construct a healthcare demand and supply flow network between major residential clusters and various tiers of hospitals in the city. The findings reveal that: 1) There exists overall maldistribution and over-concentration of healthcare resources in the study area, characterized by structural imbalance. 2) The low rate of primary care utilization in the study area is a key factor contributing to congestion at higher-tier hospitals, as excessive reliance on these institutions by neighboring communities exacerbates the problem. 3) Gradual optimization of the healthcare facility layout in the study area, encompassing holistic, local, and individual institutional levels, can enhance systemic efficiency and resource balance. This research proposes a method for evaluating urban healthcare resource distribution structures based on service flows within hierarchical networks. It offers spatially targeted optimization suggestions for promoting the implementation of the tiered healthcare system and alleviating challenges related to accessibility and congestion in seeking medical care. In addition, the study provides some new ideas for researchers and healthcare managers in countries, cities, and healthcare management around the world with similar challenges.

Keywords: Flow of public services, healthcare facilities, spatial planning, urban networks.

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Authors: Allaeddine Athmani, Abdelhacine Gouasmia, Tiago Ferreira, Romeu Vicente

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Seismic vulnerability assessment of masonry buildings is a fundamental issue even for moderate to low seismic hazard regions. This fact is even more important when dealing with old structures such as those located in Annaba city (Algeria), which the majority of dates back to the French colonial era from 1830. This category of buildings is in high risk due to their highly degradation state, heterogeneous materials and intrusive modifications to structural and non-structural elements. Furthermore, they are usually shelter a dense population, which is exposed to such risk. In order to undertake a suitable seismic risk mitigation strategies and reinforcement process for such structures, it is essential to estimate their seismic resistance capacity at a large scale. In this sense, two seismic vulnerability index methods and damage estimation have been adapted and applied to a pilot-scale building area located in the moderate seismic hazard region of Annaba city: The first one based on the EMS-98 building typologies, and the second one derived from the Italian GNDT approach. To perform this task, the authors took the advantage of an existing data survey previously performed for other purposes. The results obtained from the application of the two methods were integrated and compared using a geographic information system tool (GIS), with the ultimate goal of supporting the city council of Annaba for the implementation of risk mitigation and emergency planning strategies.

Keywords: Annaba city, EMS98 concept, GNDT method, old city center, seismic vulnerability index, unreinforced masonry buildings.

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Authors: Ying-Ming Su

Abstract:

Fujian earthen building which was known as a classic for ecological buildings was listed on the world heritage in 2008 (UNESCO) in China. Its design strategy can be applied to modern architecture planning and design. This study chose two different cases (Round Atrium: Er-Yi Building, Double Round Atrium: Zhen-Chen Building) of earthen building in Fu-Jian to compare the ventilation effects of different atrium forms. We adopt field measurements and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation of temperature, humidity, and wind environment to identify the relationship between external environment and atrium about comfort and to confirm the relationship about atrium H/W (height/width). Results indicate that, through the atrium convection effect, it makes the natural wind guides to each space surrounded and keeps indoor comfort. It illustrates that the smaller the ratio of the H/W which is the relationship between the height and the width of an atrium is, the greater the wind speed generated within the street valley. Moreover, the wind speed is very close to the reference wind speed. This field measurement verifies that the value of H/W has great influence of solar radiation heat and sunshine shadows. The ventilation efficiency is: Er-Yi Building (H/W =0.2778) > Zhen-Chen Building (H/W=0.3670). Comparing the cases with the same shape but with different H/W, through the different size patios, airflow revolves in the atriums and can be brought into each interior space. The atrium settings meet the need of building ventilation, and can adjust the humidity and temperature within the buildings. It also creates good ventilation effect.

Keywords: Traditional folk houses, Atrium, Earthen building, Ventilation, Building microclimate, PET.

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Authors: E. Kalcheva, A. Taki, Y. Hadi

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High-rises and placemaking is an understudied combination which receives more and more interest with the proliferation of this typology in many British cities. The reason for studying three major cities in England: London, Birmingham and Manchester, is to learn from the latest advances in urban design in well-developed and prominent urban environment. The analysis of several high-rise sites reveals the weaknesses in urban design of contemporary British cities and presents an opportunity to study from the implemented examples. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to analyze design approaches towards creating a sustainable and varied urban environment when high-rises are involved. The research questions raised by the study are: what is the quality of high-rises and their surroundings; what facilities and features are deployed in the research area; what is the role of the high-rise buildings in the placemaking process; what urban design principles are applicable in this context. The methodology utilizes observation of the researched area by structured questions, developed by the author to evaluate the outdoor qualities of the high-rise surroundings. In this context, the paper argues that the quality of the public realm around the high-rises is quite low, missing basic but vital elements such as plazas, public art, and seating, along with landscaping and pocket parks. There is lack of coherence, the rhythm of the streets is often disrupted, and even though the high-rises are very aesthetically appealing, they fail to create a sense of place on their own. The implications of the study are that future planning can take into consideration the critique in this article and provide more opportunities for urban design interventions around high-rise buildings in the British cities.

Keywords: High-rises, placemaking, urban design, townscape.

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Authors: Ernesto A. Lagarda-Leyva, Manuel A. Valenzuela L., José G. Oshima C., Arnulfo A. Naranjo-Flores

Abstract:

From August to December of 2016, a diagnostic and strategic planning study was carried out on the supply chain of the company Agropecuaria GABO S.A. de C.V. The final product of the study was the development of the strategic plan and a project portfolio to meet the demands of the three links in the supply chain of the Roma tomato exported annually to the United States of America. In this project, the strategic objective of ensuring the proper handling of the product was selected and one of the goals associated with this was the employment of quantitative methods to support decision making. Considering the antecedents, the objective of this case study was to develop a model to analyze the behavioral dynamics in the distribution chain, from the logistics of storage and shipment of Roma tomato in 81-case pallets (11.5 kg per case), to the two pre-cooling rooms and eventual loading onto transports, seeking to reduce the bottleneck and the associated costs by means of a dynamic interface. The methodology used was that of system dynamics, considering four phases that were adapted to the purpose of the study: 1) the conceptualization phase; 2) the formulation phase; 3) the evaluation phase; and 4) the communication phase. The main practical conclusions lead to the possibility of reducing both the bottlenecks in the cooling rooms and the costs by simulating scenarios and modifying certain policies. Furthermore, the creation of the dynamic interface between the model and the stakeholders was achieved by generating interaction with buttons and simple instructions that allow making modifications and observing diverse behaviors.

Keywords: Agrilogistics, distribution, scenarios, system dynamics.

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Authors: Akinola Ikudayisi, Josiah Adeyemo

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The correct estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ETₒ) is required for effective irrigation water resources planning and management. However, there are some variables that must be considered while estimating and modeling ETₒ. This study therefore determines the multivariate analysis of correlated variables involved in the estimation and modeling of ETₒ at Vaalharts irrigation scheme (VIS) in South Africa using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique. Weather and meteorological data between 1994 and 2014 were obtained both from South African Weather Service (SAWS) and Agricultural Research Council (ARC) in South Africa for this study. Average monthly data of minimum and maximum temperature (°C), rainfall (mm), relative humidity (%), and wind speed (m/s) were the inputs to the PCA-based model, while ETₒ is the output. PCA technique was adopted to extract the most important information from the dataset and also to analyze the relationship between the five variables and ETₒ. This is to determine the most significant variables affecting ETₒ estimation at VIS. From the model performances, two principal components with a variance of 82.7% were retained after the eigenvector extraction. The results of the two principal components were compared and the model output shows that minimum temperature, maximum temperature and windspeed are the most important variables in ETₒ estimation and modeling at VIS. In order words, ETₒ increases with temperature and windspeed. Other variables such as rainfall and relative humidity are less important and cannot be used to provide enough information about ETₒ estimation at VIS. The outcome of this study has helped to reduce input variable dimensionality from five to the three most significant variables in ETₒ modelling at VIS, South Africa.

Keywords: Irrigation, principal component analysis, reference evapotranspiration, Vaalharts.

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Authors: Dibya Jivan Pati, Kazuhisa Iki, Riken Homma

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Unlike other metro cities of India, Bhubaneswar–the capital city of Odisha, is expected to reach 1-million-mark population by now. The demands of dwelling unit requirement mostly among urban poor belonging to Economically Weaker section (EWS) and Low Income groups (LIG) is becoming a challenge due to high housing cost and rents. As a matter of fact, it’s also noted that, with increase in population, the solid waste generation also increases subsequently affecting the environment due to inefficiency in collection of waste by local government bodies. Methods of utilizing Solid Waste - especially in form of Plastic bottles, Glass bottles and Metal cans (PGM) are now widely used as an alternative material for construction of low-cost building by Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) in developing countries like India to help the urban poor afford a shelter. The application of disposed plastic bottle used in construction of single dwelling significantly reduces the overall cost of construction to as much as 14% compared to traditional construction material. Therefore, considering its cost-benefit result, it’s possible to provide housing to EWS and LIGs at an affordable price. In this paper, we estimated the quantity of plastic bottles generated in Bhubaneswar which further helped to estimate the possible number of single dwelling unit that can be constructed on yearly basis so as to refrain from further housing shortage. The estimation results will be practically used for planning and managing low-cost housing business by local government and NGOs.

Keywords: Construction, dwelling unit, plastic bottle, solid waste generation, groups.

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Authors: Jadwiga Klukow, Anna Ksykiewicz-Dorota

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An analysis of the distribution of nurses’ working time constitutes vital information for the management in planning employment. The objective of the study was to analyze the distribution of nurses’ working time in an emergency department. The study was conducted in an emergency department of a teaching hospital in Lublin, in Southeast Poland. The catalogue of activities performed by nurses was compiled by means of continuous observation. Identified activities were classified into four groups: Direct care, indirect care, coordination of work in the department and personal activities. Distribution of nurses’ working time was determined by work sampling observation (Tippett) at random intervals. The research project was approved by the Research Ethics Committee by the Medical University of Lublin (Protocol 0254/113/2010). On average, nurses spent 31% of their working time on direct care, 47% on indirect care, 12% on coordinating work in the department and 10% on personal activities. The most frequently performed direct care tasks were diagnostic activities – 29.23% and treatment-related activities – 27.69%. The study has provided information on the complexity of performed activities and utilization of nurses’ working time. Enhancing the effectiveness of nursing actions requires working out a strategy for improved management of the time nurses spent at work. Increasing the involvement of auxiliary staff and optimizing communication processes within the team may lead to reduction of the time devoted to indirect care for the benefit of direct care.

Keywords: Emergency nurses, nursing care, workload, work sampling.

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Authors: S. Zeković, M. Vujošević, T. Maričić

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The paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the sustainable development in the Belgrade Metropolitan Region - BMA (level NUTS 2) preliminary evaluating the three chosen components: 1) economic growth and developmental changes; 2) competitiveness; and 3) territorial concentration and industrial specialization. First, we identified the main results of development changes and economic growth by applying Shift-share analysis on the metropolitan level. Second, the empirical evaluation of competitiveness in the BMA is based on the analysis of absolute and relative values of eight indicators by Spider method. Paper shows that the consideration of the national share, industrial mix and metropolitan/regional share in total Shift share of the BMA, as well as economic/functional specialization of the BMA indicate very strong process of deindustrialization. Allocative component of the BMA economic growth has positive value, reflecting the above-average sector productivity compared to the national average. Third, the important positive role of metropolitan/regional component in decomposition of the BMA economic growth is highlighted as one of the key results. Finally, comparative analysis of the industrial territorial concentration in the BMA in relation to Serbia is based on location quotient (LQ) or Balassa index as a valid measure. The results indicate absolute and relative differences in decrease of industry territorial concentration as well as inefficiency of utilizing territorial capital in the BMA. Results are important for the increase of regional competitiveness and territorial distribution in this area as well as for improvement of sustainable metropolitan and sector policies, planning and governance on this level.

Keywords: Belgrade Metropolitan Area (BMA), Comprehensive analysis/evaluation, economic growth and competitiveness, sustainable development.

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Authors: Malinwo Estone Ayikpa

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With the rapid increase of grid-connected PV systems over the last decades, genuine challenges have arisen for engineers and professionals of energy field in the planning and operation of existing distribution networks with the integration of new generation sources. However, the conventional distribution network, in its design was not expected to receive other generation outside the main power supply. The tools generally used to analyze the networks become inefficient and cannot take into account all the constraints related to the operation of grid-connected PV systems. Some of these constraints are voltage control difficulty, reverse power flow, and especially voltage unbalance which could be due to the poor distribution of single-phase PV systems in the network. In order to analyze the impact of the connection of small and large number of PV systems to the distribution networks, this paper presents an efficient optimization tool that minimizes voltage unbalance in three-phase distribution networks with active and reactive power injections from the allocation of single-phase and three-phase PV plants. Reactive power can be generated or absorbed using the available capacity and the adjustable power factor of the inverter. Good reduction of voltage unbalance can be achieved by reactive power control of the PV systems. The presented tool is based on the three-phase current injection method and the PV systems are modeled via an equivalent circuit. The primal-dual interior point method is used to obtain the optimal operating points for the systems.

Keywords: Photovoltaic generation, primal-dual interior point method, three-phase optimal power flow, unbalanced system.

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Authors: Mehrnoosh Omati, Mahmod Reza Sahebi

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The information on land use/land cover changing plays an essential role for environmental assessment, planning and management in regional development. Remotely sensed imagery is widely used for providing information in many change detection applications. Polarimetric Synthetic aperture radar (PolSAR) image, with the discrimination capability between different scattering mechanisms, is a powerful tool for environmental monitoring applications. This paper proposes a new boundary-based segmentation algorithm as a fundamental step for land cover change detection. In this method, first, two PolSAR images are segmented using integration of marker-controlled watershed algorithm and coupled Markov random field (MRF). Then, object-based classification is performed to determine changed/no changed image objects. Compared with pixel-based support vector machine (SVM) classifier, this novel segmentation algorithm significantly reduces the speckle effect in PolSAR images and improves the accuracy of binary classification in object-based level. The experimental results on Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) polarimetric images show a 3% and 6% improvement in overall accuracy and kappa coefficient, respectively. Also, the proposed method can correctly distinguish homogeneous image parcels.

Keywords: Coupled Markov random field, environment, object-based analysis, Polarimetric SAR images.

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Authors: Chao-Linag Hsieh, Zheng-Wei Ye, Chen-Kang Huang, Yeun-Chung Lee, Chih-Hong Sun, Tzai-Hung Wen, Jehn-Yih Juang, Joe-Air Jiang

Abstract:

Air pollution and climate warming become more and more intensified in many areas, especially in urban areas. Environmental parameters are critical information to air pollution and weather monitoring. Thus, it is necessary to develop a suitable air pollution and weather monitoring system for urban areas. In this study, a vehicle monitoring system (VMS) based on the IoT technique is developed. Cars are selected as the research tool because it can reach a greater number of streets to collect data. The VMS can monitor different environmental parameters, including ambient temperature and humidity, and air quality parameters, including PM2.5, NO₂, CO, and O₃. The VMS can provide other information, including GPS signals and the vibration information through driving a car on the street. Different sensor modules are used to measure the parameters and collect the measured data and transmit them to a cloud server through the LoRa protocol. A user interface is used to show the sensing data storing at the cloud server. To examine the performance of the system, a researcher drove a Nissan x-trail 1998 to the area close to the Da’an District office in Taipei to collect monitoring data. The collected data are instantly shown on the user interface. The four kinds of information are provided by the interface: GPS positions, weather parameters, vehicle information, and air quality information. With the VMS, users can obtain the information regarding air quality and weather conditions when they drive their car to an urban area. Also, government agencies can make decisions on traffic planning based on the information provided by the proposed VMS.

Keywords: Vehicle, monitoring system, LoRa, smart city.

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Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Rafael Haag

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Renewable energy sources are dependent on climatic variability, so for adequate energy planning, observations of the meteorological variables are required, preferably representing long-period series. Despite the scientific and technological advances that meteorological measurement systems have undergone in the last decades, there is still a considerable lack of meteorological observations that form series of long periods. The reanalysis is a system of assimilation of data prepared using general atmospheric circulation models, based on the combination of data collected at surface stations, ocean buoys, satellites and radiosondes, allowing the production of long period data, for a wide gamma. The third generation of reanalysis data emerged in 2010, among them is the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), these data have a spatial resolution of 0.50 x 0.50. In order to overcome these difficulties, it aims to evaluate the performance of solar radiation estimation through alternative data bases, such as data from Reanalysis and from meteorological satellites that satisfactorily meet the absence of observations of solar radiation at global and/or regional level. The results of the analysis of the solar radiation data indicated that the reanalysis data of the CFSR model presented a good performance in relation to the observed data, with determination coefficient around 0.90. Therefore, it is concluded that these data have the potential to be used as an alternative source in locations with no seasons or long series of solar radiation, important for the evaluation of solar energy potential.

Keywords: Climate, reanalysis, renewable energy, solar radiation.

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Authors: Chi-Fang Huang, Yun-Shiow Chen, Yun-Kung Chung

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In the past decade, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been regarded as an instrument for problem-solving and decision-making; indeed, they have already done with a substantial efficiency and effectiveness improvement in industries and businesses. In this paper, the Back-Propagation neural Networks (BPNs) will be modulated to demonstrate the performance of the collaborative forecasting (CF) function of a Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR®) system. CPFR functions the balance between the sufficient product supply and the necessary customer demand in a Supply and Demand Chain (SDC). Several classical standard BPN will be grouped, collaborated and exploited for the easy implementation of the proposed modular ANN framework based on the topology of a SDC. Each individual BPN is applied as a modular tool to perform the task of forecasting SKUs (Stock-Keeping Units) levels that are managed and supervised at a POS (point of sale), a wholesaler, and a manufacturer in an SDC. The proposed modular BPN-based CF system will be exemplified and experimentally verified using lots of datasets of the simulated SDC. The experimental results showed that a complex CF problem can be divided into a group of simpler sub-problems based on the single independent trading partners distributed over SDC, and its SKU forecasting accuracy was satisfied when the system forecasted values compared to the original simulated SDC data. The primary task of implementing an autonomous CF involves the study of supervised ANN learning methodology which aims at making “knowledgeable" decision for the best SKU sales plan and stocks management.

Keywords: CPFR, artificial neural networks, global logistics, supply and demand chain.

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Authors: Manoj Sarda, Abhishek Agarwal, Juhi Kaushik, Vatsal Sanjay, Arup Kumar Das

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Railways in India remain primary mode of transport having one of the largest networks in the world and catering to billions of transits yearly. Catastrophic economic damage and loss to life is encountered over the past few decades due to fire to locomotives. Study of fire dynamics and fire propagation plays an important role in evacuation planning and reducing losses. Simulation based study of propagation of fire and soot inside an air conditioned coach of Indian locomotive is done in this paper. Finite difference based solver, Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) version 6 has been used for analysis. A single air conditioned 3 tier coupe closed to ambient surroundings by glass windows having occupancy for 8 people is the basic unit of the domain. A system of three such coupes combined is taken to be fundamental unit for the entire study to resemble effect to an entire coach. Analysis of flame and soot contours and concentrations is done corresponding to variations in heat release rate per unit volume (HRRPUA) of fire source, variations in conditioned air velocity being circulated inside coupes by vents and an alternate fire initiation and propagation mechanism via ducts. Quantitative results of fractional area in top and front view of the three coupes under fire and smoke are obtained using MATLAB (IMT). Present simulations and its findings will be useful for organizations like Commission of Railway Safety and others in designing and implementing safety and evacuation measures.

Keywords: Air-conditioned coaches, fire propagation, flame contour, soot flow, train fire.

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Authors: Alireza Ansariyar, Safieh Laaly

Abstract:

Over the last decades, the vehicle industry has shown increased interest in integrating autonomous, connected, and electrical technologies in vehicle design with the primary hope of improving mobility and road safety while reducing transportation’s environmental impact. Using the State of Maryland (M.D.) in the United States as a pilot study, this research investigates Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) fuel consumption and air pollutants including Carbon Monoxide (CO), Particulate Matter (PM), and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and utilizes meaningful linear regression models to predict CAV’s environmental effects. Maryland transportation network was simulated in VISUM software, and data on a set of variables were collected through a comprehensive survey. The number of pollutants and fuel consumption were obtained for the time interval 2010 to 2021 from the macro simulation. Eventually, four linear regression models were proposed to predict the amount of C.O., NOx, PM pollutants, and fuel consumption in the future. The results highlighted that CAVs’ pollutants and fuel consumption have a significant correlation with the income, age, and race of the CAV customers. Furthermore, the reliability of four statistical models was compared with the reliability of macro simulation model outputs in the year 2030. The error of three pollutants and fuel consumption was obtained at less than 9% by statistical models in SPSS. This study is expected to assist researchers and policymakers with planning decisions to reduce CAV environmental impacts in M.D.

Keywords: Connected and autonomous vehicles, statistical model, environmental effects, pollutants and fuel consumption, VISUM, linear regression models.

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Authors: Mamoon M. Atout

Abstract:

The Middle East Gulf region has witnessed rapid growth and development in many areas over the last two decades. The development of the real-estate sector, construction industry and infrastructure projects are a major share of the development that has participated in the civilization of the countries of the Gulf. Construction industry projects were planned and managed by different types of experts, who came from all over the world having different types of experiences in construction management and industry. Some of these projects were completed on time, while many were not, due to many accumulating factors. Many accumulated factors are considered as the principle reason for the problem experienced at the project construction stage, which reflected negatively on the project success. Specific causes of delay have been identified by construction managers to avoid any unexpected delays through proper analysis and considerations to some implications such as risk assessment and analysis for many potential problems to ensure that projects will be delivered on time. Construction management implications were adopted and considered by project managers who have experience and knowledge in applying the techniques of the system of engineering construction management. The aim of this research is to determine the benefits of the implications of construction management by the construction team and level of considerations of the techniques and processes during the project development and construction phases to avoid any delay in the projects. It also aims to determine the factors that participate to project completion delays in case project managers are not well committed to their roles and responsibilities. The results of the analysis will determine the necessity of the applications required by the project team to avoid the causes of delays that help them deliver projects on time, e.g. verifying tender documents, quantities and preparing the construction method of the project.

Keywords: Construction management, control process, cost control, planning and scheduling, roles and responsibilities.

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Authors: Essa Alenazi, Zulfikar Adamu

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The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is not an exception in relying on the growth of its construction industry to support rapid population growth. However, its need for infrastructure development is constrained by low productivity levels and cost overruns caused by factors such as delays to project completion. Delays in delivering a construction project are a global issue and while theories such as Optimism Bias have been used to explain such delays, in KSA, client-related causes of delays are also significant. The objective of this paper is to develop a framework-based approach to explore how the country’s construction industry can manage and reduce delays in construction projects through building information modelling (BIM) in order to mitigate the cost consequences of such delays.  It comprehensively and systematically reviewed the global literature on the subject and identified gaps, critical delay factors and the specific benefits that BIM can deliver for the delay management.  A case study comprising of nine hospital projects that have experienced delay and cost overruns was also carried out. Five critical delay factors related to the clients were identified as candidates that can be mitigated through BIM’s benefits. These factors are: Ineffective planning and scheduling of the project; changes during construction by the client; delay in progress payment; slowness in decision making by the client; and poor communication between clients and other stakeholders. In addition, data from the case study projects strongly suggest that optimism bias is present in many of the hospital projects. Further validation via key stakeholder interviews and documentations are planned.

Keywords: BIM, client perspective, delay management, optimism bias, public sector projects.

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Authors: M. Iommi, G. Losco

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Current building sector is focused on reduction of energy requirements, on renewable energy generation and on regeneration of existing urban areas. These targets need to be solved with a systemic approach, considering several aspects simultaneously such as climate conditions, lighting conditions, solar radiation, PV potential, etc. The solar access analysis is an already known method to analyze the solar potentials, but in current years, simulation tools have provided more effective opportunities to perform this type of analysis, in particular in the early design stage. Nowadays, the study of the solar access is related to the easiness of the use of simulation tools, in rapid and easy way, during the design process. This study presents a comparison of three simulation tools, from the point of view of the user, with the aim to highlight differences in the easy-to-use of these tools. Using a real urban context as case study, three tools; Ecotect, Townscope and Heliodon, are tested, performing models and simulations and examining the capabilities and output results of solar access analysis. The evaluation of the ease-to-use of these tools is based on some detected parameters and features, such as the types of simulation, requirements of input data, types of results, etc. As a result, a framework is provided in which features and capabilities of each tool are shown. This framework shows the differences among these tools about functions, features and capabilities. The aim of this study is to support users and to improve the integration of simulation tools for solar access with the design process.

Keywords: Solar access analysis, energy building design tools, urban planning, solar potential.

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Authors: T. Gómez-Navarro, M. García-Melón, D. Díaz-Martín, S. Acuna-Dutra,

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In this paper a new approach to prioritize urban planning projects in an efficient and reliable way is presented. It is based on environmental pressure indices and multicriteria decision methods. The paper introduces a rigorous method with acceptable complexity of rank ordering urban development proposals according to their environmental pressure. The technique combines the use of Environmental Pressure Indicators, the aggregation of indicators in an Environmental Pressure Index by means of the Analytic Network Process method and interpreting the information obtained from the experts during the decision-making process. The ANP method allows the aggregation of the experts- judgments on each of the indicators into one Environmental Pressure Index. In addition, ANP is based on utility ratio functions which are the most appropriate for the analysis of uncertain data, like experts- estimations. Finally, unlike the other multicriteria techniques, ANP allows the decision problem to be modelled using the relationships among dependent criteria. The method has been applied to the proposal for urban development of La Carlota airport in Caracas (Venezuela). The Venezuelan Government would like to see a recreational project develop on the abandoned area and mean a significant improvement for the capital. There are currently three options on their table which are currently under evaluation. They include a Health Club, a Residential area and a Theme Park. The participating experts coincided in the appreciation that the method proposed in this paper is useful and an improvement from traditional techniques such as environmental impact studies, lifecycle analysis, etc. They find the results obtained coherent, the process seems sufficiently rigorous and precise, and the use of resources is significantly less than in other methods.

Keywords: Environmental pressure indicators, multicriteria decision analysis, analytic network process.

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Authors: Muzaffer Ali Yaygın, Mehmet Topçu

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This research aims to investigate morphological changes in urban patterns in urban renewal areas by using geographic information systems and to reveal pattern differences that occur before and after urban renewal processes by applying a morphological analysis. The concept of urban morphology is not involved in urban renewal and urban planning practices in Turkey. This situation destroys the structural characteristic of urban space which appears as a consequence of changes at city, street or plot level. Different approaches and renewal interventions to urban settlements, which are formed as a reflection of cultural issues, may have positive and negative results. A morphological analysis has been applied to an urban renewal area that covers 325 ha. in Konya, in which city urban renewal projects have gained speed with the increasing of economic investments in this study. The study mentions urban renewal and urban morphology relationship, varied academic approach on the urban morphology issue, urban morphology components, changes in lots pattern and numerical differences that occur on road, construction and green space ratios that are before and after the renewal project, and the results of the morphological analysis. It is seen that the built-up area has significant differences when compared to the previous situation. The amount of green areas decreased significantly in quantitative terms; the transportation systems has been changed completely; and the property ownership has been reconstructed without taking the previous situation into account. Findings show that urban renewal projects in Turkey are put into practice with a rent-oriented approach without making an in-depth analysis. The paper discusses the morphological dimension of urban renewal projects in Turkey through a case study from Konya city.

Keywords: Konya, pattern, urban morphology, urban renewal.

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Authors: M. A. Okezue, K. L. Clase, S. R. Byrn, P. Shivanand

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Medicines regulatory authorities expect pharmaceutical companies and contract research organizations to seek ways to certify that their laboratory control measurements are reliable. Establishing and maintaining laboratory quality standards are essential in ensuring the accuracy of test results. ‘ISO/IEC 17025:2017’ and ‘WHO Good Practices for Pharmaceutical Quality Control Laboratories (GPPQCL)’ are two quality standards commonly employed in developing laboratory quality systems. A review was conducted on the two standards to elaborate on areas on convergence and divergence. The goal was to understand how differences in each standard's requirements may influence laboratories' choices as to which document is easier to adopt for quality systems. A qualitative review method compared similar items in the two standards while mapping out areas where there were specific differences in the requirements of the two documents. The review also provided a detailed description of the clauses and parts covering management and technical requirements in these laboratory standards. The review showed that both documents share requirements for over ten critical areas covering objectives, infrastructure, management systems, and laboratory processes. There were, however, differences in standard expectations where GPPQCL emphasizes system procedures for planning and future budgets that will ensure continuity. Conversely, ISO 17025 was more focused on the risk management approach to establish laboratory quality systems. Elements in the two documents form common standard requirements to assure the validity of laboratory test results that promote mutual recognition. The ISO standard currently has more global patronage than GPPQCL.

Keywords: ISO/IEC 17025:2017, laboratory standards, quality control, WHO GPPQCL

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Authors: S. Fore, L. Zuze

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Frequent machine breakdowns, low plant availability and increased overtime are a great threat to a manufacturing plant as they increase operating costs of an industry. The main aim of this study was to improve Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) at a manufacturing company through the implementation of innovative maintenance strategies. A case study approach was used. The paper focuses on improving the maintenance in a manufacturing set up using an innovative maintenance regime mix to improve overall equipment effectiveness. Interviews, reviewing documentation and historical records, direct and participatory observation were used as data collection methods during the research. Usually production is based on the total kilowatt of motors produced per day. The target kilowatt at 91% availability is 75 Kilowatts a day. Reduced demand and lack of raw materials particularly imported items are adversely affecting the manufacturing operations. The company had to reset its targets from the usual figure of 250 Kilowatt per day to mere 75 per day due to lower availability of machines as result of breakdowns as well as lack of raw materials. The price reductions and uncertainties as well as general machine breakdowns further lowered production. Some recommendations were given. For instance, employee empowerment in the company will enhance responsibility and authority to improve and totally eliminate the six big losses. If the maintenance department is to realise its proper function in a progressive, innovative industrial society, then its personnel must be continuously trained to meet current needs as well as future requirements. To make the maintenance planning system effective, it is essential to keep track of all the corrective maintenance jobs and preventive maintenance inspections. For large processing plants these cannot be handled manually. It was therefore recommended that the company implement (Computerised Maintenance Management System) CMMS.

Keywords: Maintenance, Manufacturing, Overall Equipment Effectiveness

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