Search results for: Knowledge Modelling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2399

Search results for: Knowledge Modelling

1499 Logic Programming and Artificial Neural Networks in Pharmacological Screening of Schinus Essential Oils

Authors: José Neves, M. Rosário Martins, Fátima Candeias, Diana Ferreira, Sílvia Arantes, Júlio Cruz-Morais, Guida Gomes, Joaquim Macedo, António Abelha, Henrique Vicente

Abstract:

Some plants of genus Schinus have been used in the folk medicine as topical antiseptic, digestive, purgative, diuretic, analgesic or antidepressant, and also for respiratory and urinary infections. Chemical composition of essential oils of S. molle and S. terebinthifolius had been evaluated and presented high variability according with the part of the plant studied and with the geographic and climatic regions. The pharmacological properties, namely antimicrobial, anti-tumoural and anti-inflammatory activities are conditioned by chemical composition of essential oils. Taking into account the difficulty to infer the pharmacological properties of Schinus essential oils without hard experimental approach, this work will focus on the development of a decision support system, in terms of its knowledge representation and reasoning procedures, under a formal framework based on Logic Programming, complemented with an approach to computing centered on Artificial Neural Networks and the respective Degree-of-Confidence that one has on such an occurrence.

Keywords: Artificial neuronal networks, essential oils, knowledge representation and reasoning, logic programming, Schinus molle L, Schinus terebinthifolius raddi.

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1498 A Study of Quality Assurance and Unit Verification Methods in Safety Critical Environment

Authors: Miklos Taliga

Abstract:

In the present case study we examined the development and testing methods of systems that contain safety-critical elements in different industrial fields. Consequentially, we observed the classical object-oriented development and testing environment, as both medical technology and automobile industry approaches the development of safety critical elements that way. Subsequently, we examined model-based development. We introduce the quality parameters that define development and testing. While taking modern agile methodology (scrum) into consideration, we examined whether and to what extent the methodologies we found fit into this environment.

Keywords: Safety-critical elements, quality management, unit verification, model base testing, agile methods, scrum, metamodel, object-oriented programming, field specific modelling, sprint, user story, UML Standard.

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1497 Ensemble Approach for Predicting Student's Academic Performance

Authors: L. A. Muhammad, M. S. Argungu

Abstract:

Educational data mining (EDM) has recorded substantial considerations. Techniques of data mining in one way or the other have been proposed to dig out out-of-sight knowledge in educational data. The result of the study got assists academic institutions in further enhancing their process of learning and methods of passing knowledge to students. Consequently, the performance of students boasts and the educational products are by no doubt enhanced. This study adopted a student performance prediction model premised on techniques of data mining with Students' Essential Features (SEF). SEF are linked to the learner's interactivity with the e-learning management system. The performance of the student's predictive model is assessed by a set of classifiers, viz. Bayes Network, Logistic Regression, and Reduce Error Pruning Tree (REP). Consequently, ensemble methods of Bagging, Boosting, and Random Forest (RF) are applied to improve the performance of these single classifiers. The study reveals that the result shows a robust affinity between learners' behaviors and their academic attainment. Result from the study shows that the REP Tree and its ensemble record the highest accuracy of 83.33% using SEF. Hence, in terms of the Receiver Operating Curve (ROC), boosting method of REP Tree records 0.903, which is the best. This result further demonstrates the dependability of the proposed model.

Keywords: Ensemble, bagging, Random Forest, boosting, data mining, classifiers, machine learning.

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1496 Analyzing the Factors Effecting the Passenger Car Breakdowns using Com-Poisson GLM

Authors: N. Mamode Khan, V. Jowaheer

Abstract:

Number of breakdowns experienced by a machinery is a highly under-dispersed count random variable and its value can be attributed to the factors related to the mechanical input and output of that machinery. Analyzing such under-dispersed count observations as a function of the explanatory factors has been a challenging problem. In this paper, we aim at estimating the effects of various factors on the number of breakdowns experienced by a passenger car based on a study performed in Mauritius over a year. We remark that the number of passenger car breakdowns is highly under-dispersed. These data are therefore modelled and analyzed using Com-Poisson regression model. We use quasi-likelihood estimation approach to estimate the parameters of the model. Under-dispersion parameter is estimated to be 2.14 justifying the appropriateness of Com-Poisson distribution in modelling under-dispersed count responses recorded in this study.

Keywords: Breakdowns, under-dispersion, com-poisson, generalized linear model, quasi-likelihood estimation

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1495 Modelling of Groundwater Resources for Al-Najaf City, Iraq

Authors: Hayder H. Kareem, Shunqi Pan

Abstract:

Groundwater is a vital water resource in many areas in the world, particularly in the Middle-East region where the water resources become scarce and depleting. Sustainable management and planning of the groundwater resources become essential and urgent given the impact of the global climate change. In the recent years, numerical models have been widely used to predict the flow pattern and assess the water resources security, as well as the groundwater quality affected by the contaminants transported. In this study, MODFLOW is used to study the current status of groundwater resources and the risk of water resource security in the region centred at Al-Najaf City, which is located in the mid-west of Iraq and adjacent to the Euphrates River. In this study, a conceptual model is built using the geologic and hydrogeologic collected for the region, together with the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data obtained from the "Global Land Cover Facility" (GLCF) and "United State Geological Survey" (USGS) for the study area. The computer model is also implemented with the distributions of 69 wells in the area with the steady pro-defined hydraulic head along its boundaries. The model is then applied with the recharge rate (from precipitation) of 7.55 mm/year, given from the analysis of the field data in the study area for the period of 1980-2014. The hydraulic conductivity from the measurements at the locations of wells is interpolated for model use. The model is calibrated with the measured hydraulic heads at the locations of 50 of 69 wells in the domain and results show a good agreement. The standard-error-of-estimate (SEE), root-mean-square errors (RMSE), Normalized RMSE and correlation coefficient are 0.297 m, 2.087 m, 6.899% and 0.971 respectively. Sensitivity analysis is also carried out, and it is found that the model is sensitive to recharge, particularly when the rate is greater than (15mm/year). Hydraulic conductivity is found to be another parameter which can affect the results significantly, therefore it requires high quality field data. The results show that there is a general flow pattern from the west to east of the study area, which agrees well with the observations and the gradient of the ground surface. It is found that with the current operational pumping rates of the wells in the area, a dry area is resulted in Al-Najaf City due to the large quantity of groundwater withdrawn. The computed water balance with the current operational pumping quantity shows that the Euphrates River supplies water into the groundwater of approximately 11759 m3/day, instead of gaining water of 11178 m3/day from the groundwater if no pumping from the wells. It is expected that the results obtained from the study can provide important information for the sustainable and effective planning and management of the regional groundwater resources for Al-Najaf City.

Keywords: Al-Najaf city, conceptual modelling, groundwater, unconfined aquifer, visual MODFLOW.

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1494 Structural Analysis of a Composite Wind Turbine Blade

Authors: C. Amer, M. Sahin

Abstract:

The design of an optimised horizontal axis 5-meter-long wind turbine rotor blade in according with IEC 61400-2 standard is a research and development project in order to fulfil the requirements of high efficiency of torque from wind production and to optimise the structural components to the lightest and strongest way possible. For this purpose, a research study is presented here by focusing on the structural characteristics of a composite wind turbine blade via finite element modelling and analysis tools. In this work, first, the required data regarding the general geometrical parts are gathered. Then, the airfoil geometries are created at various sections along the span of the blade by using CATIA software to obtain the two surfaces, namely; the suction and the pressure side of the blade in which there is a hat shaped fibre reinforced plastic spar beam, so-called chassis starting at 0.5m from the root of the blade and extends up to 4 m and filled with a foam core. The root part connecting the blade to the main rotor differential metallic hub having twelve hollow threaded studs is then modelled. The materials are assigned as two different types of glass fabrics, polymeric foam core material and the steel-balsa wood combination for the root connection parts. The glass fabrics are applied using hand wet lay-up lamination with epoxy resin as METYX L600E10C-0, is the unidirectional continuous fibres and METYX XL800E10F having a tri-axial architecture with fibres in the 0,+45,-45 degree orientations in a ratio of 2:1:1. Divinycell H45 is used as the polymeric foam. The finite element modelling of the blade is performed via MSC PATRAN software with various meshes created on each structural part considering shell type for all surface geometries, and lumped mass were added to simulate extra adhesive locations. For the static analysis, the boundary conditions are assigned as fixed at the root through aforementioned bolts, where for dynamic analysis both fixed-free and free-free boundary conditions are made. By also taking the mesh independency into account, MSC NASTRAN is used as a solver for both analyses. The static analysis aims the tip deflection of the blade under its own weight and the dynamic analysis comprises normal mode dynamic analysis performed in order to obtain the natural frequencies and corresponding mode shapes focusing the first five in and out-of-plane bending and the torsional modes of the blade. The analyses results of this study are then used as a benchmark prior to modal testing, where the experiments over the produced wind turbine rotor blade has approved the analytical calculations.

Keywords: Dynamic analysis, Fiber Reinforced Composites, Horizontal axis wind turbine blade, Hand-wet layup, Modal Testing.

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1493 Inventing a Method of Problem Solving: The Natural Movement of the Mind to Solve a Problem

Authors: Amir Farkhonde

Abstract:

The major objective of this study was to devise a method for solving mathematical problems. Three concepts including faculty of understanding, faculty of guess, and free mind or beginner's mind provided the foundation for this method. An explanatory approach along with a hermeneutic process was taken in this study to support the assumption that mathematical knowledge is constantly developing and it seems essential for students to solve math problems on their own using their faculty of understanding (interpretive dialogue) and faculty of guess. For doing so, a kind of movement from the mathematical problem to mathematical knowledge should be adopted for teaching students a new math topic. The research method of this paper is review, descriptive and conception development. This paper first reviews the research findings on the NRICH’S project (NRICH is part of the family of activities in the Millennium Mathematics Project) with the aim that these findings form the theoretical basis of the problem-solving method. Then, the curriculum, the conceptual structure of the new method, how to design the problem and an example of it are discussed. In this way, students are immersed in the story of discovering and understanding the problem formula, and interpretive dialogue with the text continues by following the questions posed by the problem and constantly reconstructing the answer to find a formula or solution to solve the problem.

Keywords: Interpretive dialogue, NRICH, inventing, a method of problem solving.

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1492 Conceptual Model for Massive Open Online Blended Courses Based on Disciplines’ Concepts Capitalization and Obstacles’ Detection

Authors: N. Hammid, F. Bouarab-Dahmani, T. Berkane

Abstract:

Since its appearance, the MOOC (massive open online course) is gaining more and more intention of the educational communities over the world. Apart from the current MOOCs design and purposes, the creators of MOOC focused on the importance of the connection and knowledge exchange between individuals in learning. In this paper, we present a conceptual model for massive open online blended courses where teachers over the world can collaborate and exchange their experience to get a common efficient content designed as a MOOC opened to their students to live a better learning experience. This model is based on disciplines’ concepts capitalization and the detection of the obstacles met by their students when faced with problem situations (exercises, projects, case studies, etc.). This detection is possible by analyzing the frequently of semantic errors committed by the students. The participation of teachers in the design of the course and the attendance by their students can guarantee an efficient and extensive participation (an important number of participants) in the course, the learners’ motivation and the evaluation issues, in the way that the teachers designing the course assess their students. Thus, the teachers review, together with their knowledge, offer a better assessment and efficient connections to their students.

Keywords: MOOC, Massive Open Online Courses, Online learning, E-learning, Blended learning.

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1491 Semantic Modeling of Management Information: Enabling Automatic Reasoning on DMTF-CIM

Authors: Fernando Alonso, Rafael Fernandez, Sonia Frutos, Javier Soriano

Abstract:

CIM is the standard formalism for modeling management information developed by the Distributed Management Task Force (DMTF) in the context of its WBEM proposal, designed to provide a conceptual view of the managed environment. In this paper, we propose the inclusion of formal knowledge representation techniques, based on Description Logics (DLs) and the Web Ontology Language (OWL), in CIM-based conceptual modeling, and then we examine the benefits of such a decision. The proposal is specified as a CIM metamodel level mapping to a highly expressive subset of DLs capable of capturing all the semantics of the models. The paper shows how the proposed mapping can be used for automatic reasoning about the management information models, as a design aid, by means of new-generation CASE tools, thanks to the use of state-of-the-art automatic reasoning systems that support the proposed logic and use algorithms that are sound and complete with respect to the semantics. Such a CASE tool framework has been developed by the authors and its architecture is also introduced. The proposed formalization is not only useful at design time, but also at run time through the use of rational autonomous agents, in response to a need recently recognized by the DMTF.

Keywords: CIM, Knowledge-based Information Models, Ontology Languages, OWL, Description Logics, Integrated Network Management, Intelligent Agents, Automatic Reasoning Techniques.

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1490 Design Optimisation of Compound Parabolic Concentrator (CPC) for Improved Performance

Authors: M. M. Isa, R. Abd-Rahman, H. H. Goh

Abstract:

A compound parabolic concentrator (CPC) is a wellknown non-imaging concentrator that will concentrate the solar radiation onto receiver (PV cell). One of disadvantage of CPC is has tall and narrow height compared to its diameter entry aperture area. Therefore, for economic reason, a truncation had been done by removed from the top of the full height CPC. This also will lead to the decreases of concentration ratio but it will be negligible. In this paper, the flux distribution of untruncated and truncated 2-D hollow compound parabolic trough concentrator (hCPTC) design is presented. The untruncated design has initial height H=193.4mm with concentration ratio C_(2-D)=4. This paper presents the optical simulation of compound parabolic trough concentrator using raytracing software TracePro. Results showed that, after the truncation, the height of CPC reduced 45% from initial height with the geometrical concentration ratio only decrease 10%. Thus, the cost of reflector and material dielectric usage can be saved especially at manufacturing site.

Keywords: Compound parabolic trough concentrator, optical modelling, ray-tracing analysis.

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1489 Numerical Modelling of Effective Diffusivity in Bone Tissue Engineering

Authors: Ayesha Sohail, Khadija Maqbool, Anila Asif, Haroon Ahmad

Abstract:

These days, the field of tissue engineering is getting serious attention due to its usefulness. Bone tissue engineering helps to address and sort-out the critical sized and non-healing orthopedic problems by the creation of manmade bone tissue. We will design and validate an efficient numerical model, which will simulate the effective diffusivity in bone tissue engineering. Our numerical model will be based on the finite element analysis of the diffusion-reaction equations. It will have the ability to optimize the diffusivity, even at multi-scale, with the variation of time. It will also have a special feature “parametric sweep”, with which we will be able to predict the oxygen, glucose and cell density dynamics, more accurately. We will fix these problems by modifying the governing equations, by selecting appropriate spatio-temporal finite element schemes and by transient analysis.

Keywords: Bone tissue engineering, Transient Analysis, Scaffolds, fabrication techniques.

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1488 Forecasting Issues in Energy Markets within a Reg-ARIMA Framework

Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

Abstract:

Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.

Keywords: Forecasting problem, interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-plus-SARMA methods.

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1487 The Motivating and Limiting Factors of Learners’ Engagement in an Online Discussion Forum

Authors: K. Durairaj, I. N. Umar

Abstract:

Lately, asynchronous discussion forum is integrated in higher educational institutions as it may increase learning process, learners’ understanding, achievement and knowledge construction. The asynchronous discussion forum is used to complement the traditional, face-to-face learning session in hybrid learning courses. However, studies have proven that students’ engagement in online forums is still unconvincing. Thus, the aim of this study is to investigate the motivating factors and obstacles that affect the learners’ engagement in asynchronous discussion forum. This study is carried out in one of the public higher educational institutions in Malaysia with 18 postgraduate students as samples. The authors have developed a 40-items questionnaire based on literature review. The results indicate several factors that have encouraged or limited students’ engagement in asynchronous discussion forum: (a) the practices or behaviors of peers, or instructors, (b) the needs for the discussions, (c) the learners’ personalities, (d) constraints in continuing the discussion forum, (e) lack of ideas, (f) the level of thoughts, (g) the level of knowledge construction, (h) technical problems, (i) time constraints and (j) misunderstanding. This study suggests some recommendations to increase the students’ engagement in online forums. Finally, based upon the findings, some implications are proposed for further research.

Keywords: Asynchronous Discussion Forum, Engagement, Factors, Motivating, Limiting.

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1486 Modelling for Temperature Non-Isothermal Continuous Stirred Tank Reactor Using Fuzzy Logic

Authors: Nasser Mohamed Ramli, Mohamad Syafiq Mohamad

Abstract:

Many types of controllers were applied on the continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) unit to control the temperature. In this research paper, Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controller are compared with Fuzzy Logic controller for temperature control of CSTR. The control system for temperature non-isothermal of a CSTR will produce a stable response curve to its set point temperature. A mathematical model of a CSTR using the most general operating condition was developed through a set of differential equations into S-function using MATLAB. The reactor model and S-function are developed using m.file. After developing the S-function of CSTR model, User-Defined functions are used to link to SIMULINK file. Results that are obtained from simulation and temperature control were better when using Fuzzy logic control compared to PID control.

Keywords: CSTR, temperature, PID, fuzzy logic.

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1485 Impacts of Project-Overload on Innovation inside Organizations: Agent-Based Modeling

Authors: Farnaz Motamediyan Dehkordi, Anthony Thompson, Tobias Larsson

Abstract:

Market competition and a desire to gain advantages on globalized market, drives companies towards innovation efforts. Project overload is an unpleasant phenomenon, which is happening for employees inside those organizations trying to make the most efficient use of their resources to be innovative. But what are the impacts of project overload on organization-s innovation capabilities? Advanced engineering teams (AE) inside a major heavy equipment manufacturer are suffering from project overload in their quest for innovation. In this paper, Agent-based modeling (ABM) is used to examine the current reality of the company context, and of the AE team, where the opportunities and challenges for reducing the risk of project overload and moving towards innovation were identified. Project overload is more likely to stifle innovation and creativity inside teams. On the other hand, motivations on proper challenging goals are more likely to help individual to alleviate the negative aspects of low level of project overload.

Keywords: Innovation, Creativity, Project overload, Agentbased modelling.

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1484 Addressing Scalability Issues of Named Entity Recognition Using Multi-Class Support Vector Machines

Authors: Mona Soliman Habib

Abstract:

This paper explores the scalability issues associated with solving the Named Entity Recognition (NER) problem using Support Vector Machines (SVM) and high-dimensional features. The performance results of a set of experiments conducted using binary and multi-class SVM with increasing training data sizes are examined. The NER domain chosen for these experiments is the biomedical publications domain, especially selected due to its importance and inherent challenges. A simple machine learning approach is used that eliminates prior language knowledge such as part-of-speech or noun phrase tagging thereby allowing for its applicability across languages. No domain-specific knowledge is included. The accuracy measures achieved are comparable to those obtained using more complex approaches, which constitutes a motivation to investigate ways to improve the scalability of multiclass SVM in order to make the solution more practical and useable. Improving training time of multi-class SVM would make support vector machines a more viable and practical machine learning solution for real-world problems with large datasets. An initial prototype results in great improvement of the training time at the expense of memory requirements.

Keywords: Named entity recognition, support vector machines, language independence, bioinformatics.

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1483 Artificial Neural Network Models of the Ruminal pH in Holstein Steers

Authors: Alireza Vakili, Mohsen Danesh Mesgaran, Majid Abdollazade

Abstract:

In this study four Holstein steers with rumen fistula fed 7 kg of dry matter (DM) of diets differing in concentrate to alfalfa hay ratios as 60:40, 70:30, 80:20, and 90:10 in a 4 × 4 latin square design. The pH of the ruminal fluid was measured before the morning feeding (0.0 h) to 8 h post feeding. In this study, a two-layered feed-forward neural network trained by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was used for modelling of ruminal pH. The input variables of the network were time, concentrate to alfalfa hay ratios (C/F), non fiber carbohydrate (NFC) and neutral detergent fiber (NDF). The output variable was the ruminal pH. The modeling results showed that there was excellent agreement between the experimental data and predicted values, with a high determination coefficient (R2 >0.96). Therefore, we suggest using these model-derived biological values to summarize continuously recorded pH data.

Keywords: Ruminal pH, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Non Fiber Carbohydrate, Neutral Detergent Fiber.

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1482 Teaching Math to Preschool Children with Autism

Authors: Hui Fang Huang Su, Jia Borror

Abstract:

This study compared two different interventions for math instruction among preschoolers with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). The first intervention, a combination of discrete trial teaching and Strategies for Teaching Based on Autism Research (STAR), was the regular math curriculum utilized at the preschool. The second activity-based, naturalistic intervention was Project Mind, also known as Math is Not Difficult. The curricular interventions were randomly assigned to four preschool classrooms with ASD students and implemented over three months for Project MIND. Measurements gained during the same three months for the STAR intervention were used. A quasi-experimental, pre-test/post-test design was selected to compare which intervention was the most effective in increasing mathematical knowledge and skills among preschoolers with ASD. Standardized pre and post-test instruments included the Bracken Basic Concept Scale-3 Receptive, the Applied Problems and Calculation subtests of the Woodcock-Johnson IV Tests of Achievement, and the TEMA 3: Test of Early Mathematics Ability – Third Edition. The STAR assessment is typically administered to all preschoolers at the study site three times per year, and those results were used in this study. We anticipated that the implementation of these two approaches would lead to improvement in the mathematical knowledge and skills of children with ASD. Still, it is essential to see whether a behavioral or naturalistic teaching approach leads to more significant results.

Keywords: Autism, mathematics, preschool, special education.

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1481 Identification of a PWA Model of a Batch Reactor for Model Predictive Control

Authors: Gorazd Karer, Igor Skrjanc, Borut Zupancic

Abstract:

The complex hybrid and nonlinear nature of many processes that are met in practice causes problems with both structure modelling and parameter identification; therefore, obtaining a model that is suitable for MPC is often a difficult task. The basic idea of this paper is to present an identification method for a piecewise affine (PWA) model based on a fuzzy clustering algorithm. First we introduce the PWA model. Next, we tackle the identification method. We treat the fuzzy clustering algorithm, deal with the projections of the fuzzy clusters into the input space of the PWA model and explain the estimation of the parameters of the PWA model by means of a modified least-squares method. Furthermore, we verify the usability of the proposed identification approach on a hybrid nonlinear batch reactor example. The result suggest that the batch reactor can be efficiently identified and thus formulated as a PWA model, which can eventually be used for model predictive control purposes.

Keywords: Batch reactor, fuzzy clustering, hybrid systems, identification, nonlinear systems, PWA systems.

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1480 Patients’ Perceptions of Receiving a Diagnosis of a Hematological Malignancy, Following the SPIKES Protocol

Authors: L. Dixon, D. Gavani

Abstract:

Objective: Sharing devastating news with patients is often considered the most difficult task of doctors. This study aimed to explore patients’ perceptions of receiving bad news including which features improve the experience and which areas need refining. Methods: A questionnaire was written based on the steps of the SPIKES model for breaking bad new. 20 patients receiving treatment for a hematological malignancy completed the questionnaire. Results: Overall, the results are promising as most patients praised their consultation. ‘Poor’ was more commonly rated by women and participants aged 45-64. The main differences between the ‘excellent’ and ‘poor’ consultations include the doctor’s sensitivity and checking the patients’ understanding. Only 35% of patients were asked their existing knowledge and 85% of consultations failed to discuss the impact of the diagnosis on daily life. Conclusion: This study agreed with the consensus of existing literature. The commended aspects include consultation set-up and information given. Areas patients felt needed improvement include doctors determining the patient’s existing knowledge and checking new information has been understood. Doctors should also explore how the diagnosis will affect the patient’s life. With a poorer prognosis, doctors should work on conveying appropriate hope. The study was limited by a small sample size and potential recall bias.

Keywords: Communication, diagnosis, hematology, patients.

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1479 Using Exponential Lévy Models to Study Implied Volatility patterns for Electricity Options

Authors: Pinho C., Madaleno M.

Abstract:

German electricity European options on futures using Lévy processes for the underlying asset are examined. Implied volatility evolution, under each of the considered models, is discussed after calibrating for the Merton jump diffusion (MJD), variance gamma (VG), normal inverse Gaussian (NIG), Carr, Geman, Madan and Yor (CGMY) and the Black and Scholes (B&S) model. Implied volatility is examined for the entire sample period, revealing some curious features about market evolution, where data fitting performances of the five models are compared. It is shown that variance gamma processes provide relatively better results and that implied volatility shows significant differences through time, having increasingly evolved. Volatility changes for changed uncertainty, or else, increasing futures prices and there is evidence for the need to account for seasonality when modelling both electricity spot/futures prices and volatility.

Keywords: Calibration, Electricity Markets, Implied Volatility, Lévy Models, Options on Futures, Pricing

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1478 Modeling Residential Space Heating Energy for Romania

Authors: Ion Smeureanu, Adriana Reveiu, Marian Dardala, Titus Felix Furtuna, Roman Kanala

Abstract:

This paper proposes a linear model for optimizing domestic energy consumption in Romania. The particularity of the model is that it is putting in competition both tangible technologies and thermal insulation projects with different financing modes. The model is optimizing the energy system by minimizing the global discounted cost in household sector, by integrating residential lighting, space heating, hot water, combined space heating – hot water, as well as space cooling, in a monolithic model. Another demand sector included is the passenger transport. This paper focuses on space heating part, analyzing technical and economic issues related to investment decisions to envelope and insulate buildings, in order to minimize energy consumption.

Keywords: Consumer behavior, energy modelling, Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS), MARKAL/TIMES Romanian energy model.

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1477 Rating Charts of R-22 Alternatives Flow through Adiabatic Capillary Tubes

Authors: E. Elgendy, J. Schmidt

Abstract:

Drop-in of R-22 alternatives in refrigeration and air conditioning systems requires a redesign of system components to improve system performance and reliability with the alternative refrigerants. The present paper aims at design adiabatic capillary tubes for R-22 alternatives such as R-417A, R-422D and R-438A. A theoretical model has been developed and validated with the available experimental data from literature for R-22 over a wide range of both operating and geometrical parameters. Predicted lengths of adiabatic capillary tube are compared with the lengths of the capillary tube needed under similar experimental conditions and majority of predictions are found to be within 4.4% of the experimental data. Hence, the model has been applied for R-417A, R- 422D and R-438A and capillary tube selection charts and correlations have been computed. Finally a comparison between the selected refrigerants and R-22 has been introduced and the results showed that R-438A is the closest one to R-22.

Keywords: Adiabatic flow, Capillary tube, R-22 alternatives, Rating charts, Modelling.

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1476 Defining a Semantic Web-based Framework for Enabling Automatic Reasoning on CIM-based Management Platforms

Authors: Fernando Alonso, Rafael Fernandez, Sonia Frutos, Javier Soriano

Abstract:

CIM is the standard formalism for modeling management information developed by the Distributed Management Task Force (DMTF) in the context of its WBEM proposal, designed to provide a conceptual view of the managed environment. In this paper, we propose the inclusion of formal knowledge representation techniques, based on Description Logics (DLs) and the Web Ontology Language (OWL), in CIM-based conceptual modeling, and then we examine the benefits of such a decision. The proposal is specified as a CIM metamodel level mapping to a highly expressive subset of DLs capable of capturing all the semantics of the models. The paper shows how the proposed mapping provides CIM diagrams with precise semantics and can be used for automatic reasoning about the management information models, as a design aid, by means of newgeneration CASE tools, thanks to the use of state-of-the-art automatic reasoning systems that support the proposed logic and use algorithms that are sound and complete with respect to the semantics. Such a CASE tool framework has been developed by the authors and its architecture is also introduced. The proposed formalization is not only useful at design time, but also at run time through the use of rational autonomous agents, in response to a need recently recognized by the DMTF.

Keywords: CIM, Knowledge-based Information Models, OntologyLanguages, OWL, Description Logics, Integrated Network Management, Intelligent Agents, Automatic Reasoning Techniques.

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1475 An Approach of the Inverter Voltage Used for the Linear Machine with Multi Air-Gap Structure

Authors: Pierre Kenfack

Abstract:

In this paper we present a contribution for the modelling and control of the inverter voltage of a permanent magnet linear generator with multi air-gap structure. The time domain control method is based on instant comparison of reference signals, in the form of current or voltage, with actual or measured signals. The reference current or voltage must be kept close to the actual signal with a reasonable tolerance. In this work, the time domain control method is used to control tracking signals. The performance evaluation concerns the continuation of reference signal. Simulations validate very well the tracking of reference variables (current, voltage) by measured or actual signals. All is simulated and presented under PSIM Software to show the performance and robustness of the proposed controller.

Keywords: Control, permanent magnet, linear machine, multi air-gap structure.

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1474 Towards Benchmarking English Residential Gas Consumption

Authors: J.Morris, D.Allinson, J.Harrison, K.J. Lomas

Abstract:

The UK Government has emphasized the role of Local Authorities as a key player in its flagship residential energy efficiency strategies, by identifying and targeting areas for energy efficiency improvements. Residential energy consumption in England is characterized by significant geographical variation in energy demand, which makes centralized targeting of areas for energy efficiency intervention difficult. This paper draws on research which aims to understand how demographic, social, economic, urban form and climatic factors influence the geographical variations in English residential gas consumption. The paper reports the findings of a multiple regression model that shows how 64% of the geographical variation in residential gas consumption is accounted for by variations in these factors. Results from this study, after further refinement and validation, can be used by Local Authorities to identify areas within their boundaries that have higher than expected gas consumption, these may be prime targets for energy efficiency initiatives.

Keywords: UK Housing, Heating Energy, Socio-Economics, Statistical Modelling

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1473 Structural Basis of Resistance of Helicobacterpylori DnaK to Antimicrobial Peptide Pyrrhocoricin

Authors: Musammat F. Nahar, Anna Roujeinikova

Abstract:

Bacterial molecular chaperone DnaK plays an essential role in protein folding, stress response and transmembrane targeting of proteins. DnaKs from many bacterial species, including Escherichia coli, Salmonella typhimurium and Haemophilus infleunzae are the molecular targets for the insect-derived antimicrobial peptide pyrrhocoricin. Pyrrhocoricin-like peptides bind in the substrate recognition tunnel. Despite the high degree of crossspecies sequence conservation in the substrate-binding tunnel, some bacteria are not sensitive to pyrrhocoricin. This work addresses the molecular mechanism of resistance of Helicobacter pylori DnaK to pyrrhocoricin. Homology modelling, structural and sequence analysis identify a single aminoacid substitution at the interface between the lid and the β-sandwich subdomains of the DnaK substrate-binding domain as the major determinant for its resistance.

Keywords: Helicobacter pylori, molecular chaperone DnaK, pyrrhocoricin, structural biology.

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1472 An Investigation into the Impact of Techno-Entrepreneurship Education on Self-Employment

Authors: F. Farzin

Abstract:

Research has shown that techno-entrepreneurship is economically significant. Therefore, it is suggested that teaching techno-entrepreneurship may be important because such programmes would prepare current and future generations of learners to recognise and act on high-technology opportunities. Education in technoentrepreneurship may increase the knowledge of how to start one’s own enterprise and recognise the technological opportunities for commercialisation to improve decision-making about starting a new venture; also it influence decisions about capturing the business opportunities and turning them into successful ventures. Universities can play a main role in connecting and networking technoentrepreneurship students towards a cooperative attitude with real business practice and industry knowledge. To investigate and answer whether education for techno-entrepreneurs really helps, this paper choses a comparison of literature reviews as its method of research. After reviewing literature related to the impact of technoentrepreneurship education on self-employment 6 studies which had similar aim and objective to this paper were. These particular papers were selected based on a keywords search and as their aim, objectives, and gaps were close to the current research. In addition, they were all based on the influence of techno-entrepreneurship education in self-employment and intention of students to start new ventures. The findings showed that teaching techno-entrepreneurship education may have an influence on students’ intention and their future self-employment, but which courses should be covered and the duration of programmes, needs further investigation.

Keywords: Techno-entrepreneurship education, training, higher education, intention, self-employment.

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1471 Modelling of Heating and Evaporation of Biodiesel Fuel Droplets

Authors: Mansour Al Qubeissi, Sergei S. Sazhin, Cyril Crua, Morgan R. Heikal

Abstract:

This paper presents the application of the Discrete Component Model for heating and evaporation to multi-component biodiesel fuel droplets in direct injection internal combustion engines. This model takes into account the effects of temperature gradient, recirculation and species diffusion inside droplets. A distinctive feature of the model used in the analysis is that it is based on the analytical solutions to the temperature and species diffusion equations inside the droplets. Nineteen types of biodiesel fuels are considered. It is shown that a simplistic model, based on the approximation of biodiesel fuel by a single component or ignoring the diffusion of components of biodiesel fuel, leads to noticeable errors in predicted droplet evaporation time and time evolution of droplet surface temperature and radius.

Keywords: Heat/Mass Transfer, Biodiesel, Multi-component Fuel, Droplet, Evaporation.

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1470 Development of Requirements Analysis Tool for Medical Autonomy in Long-Duration Space Exploration Missions

Authors: Lara Dutil-Fafard, Caroline Rhéaume, Patrick Archambault, Daniel Lafond, Neal W. Pollock

Abstract:

Improving resources for medical autonomy of astronauts in prolonged space missions, such as a Mars mission, requires not only technology development, but also decision-making support systems. The Advanced Crew Medical System - Medical Condition Requirements study, funded by the Canadian Space Agency, aimed to create knowledge content and a scenario-based query capability to support medical autonomy of astronauts. The key objective of this study was to create a prototype tool for identifying medical infrastructure requirements in terms of medical knowledge, skills and materials. A multicriteria decision-making method was used to prioritize the highest risk medical events anticipated in a long-term space mission. Starting with those medical conditions, event sequence diagrams (ESDs) were created in the form of decision trees where the entry point is the diagnosis and the end points are the predicted outcomes (full recovery, partial recovery, or death/severe incapacitation). The ESD formalism was adapted to characterize and compare possible outcomes of medical conditions as a function of available medical knowledge, skills, and supplies in a given mission scenario. An extensive literature review was performed and summarized in a medical condition database. A PostgreSQL relational database was created to allow query-based evaluation of health outcome metrics with different medical infrastructure scenarios. Critical decision points, skill and medical supply requirements, and probable health outcomes were compared across chosen scenarios. The three medical conditions with the highest risk rank were acute coronary syndrome, sepsis, and stroke. Our efforts demonstrate the utility of this approach and provide insight into the effort required to develop appropriate content for the range of medical conditions that may arise.

Keywords: Decision support system, event sequence diagram, exploration mission, medical autonomy, scenario-based queries, space medicine.

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