Search results for: political events

Authors: Sholpan Zhandossova, Erden Ordabek, Yelbolsyn Nazarov

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the article analyzes the national security as a scientific and practical problem, characterized by the state's political institutions to ensure effective action to maintain optimal conditions for the existence and development of the individual and society. National security, as a category of political science reflects the relationship between the security to the nation, including public relations and social consciousness, social institutions and their activities, ensuring the realization of national interests in a particular historical situation. In national security are three security levels: individual, society and state. Their role and place determined by the nature of social relations, political systems, the presence of internal and external threats. In terms of content in the concept of national security is taken to provide political, economic, military, environmental, information security and safety of the cultural development of the nation.

Keywords: Kazakhstan, national security, religious extremism

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Authors: Breda M. Kiernan, Cormac Fay, Stephen Beirne, Dermot Diamond

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This paper describes the designs of a first and second generation autonomous gas monitoring system and the successful field trial of the final system (2nd generation). Infrared sensing technology is used to detect and measure the greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) at point sources. The ability to monitor real-time events is further enhanced through the implementation of both GSM and Bluetooth technologies to communicate these data in real-time. These systems are robust, reliable and a necessary tool where the monitoring of gas events in real-time are needed.

Keywords: Environmental monitoring, infrared sensing, autonomous system.

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Authors: S. Kurien, S. Satpathy, S. K. Gupta, S. K. Arya, D. K. Sharma

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Advances in the use of health care technology have resulted in increased adverse events (AEs) related to the use of medical devices. The study focused on the existing reporting systems. This study was conducted in a tertiary care public sector hospital. Devices included Syringe infusion pumps, Cardiac monitors, Pulse oximeters, Ventilators and Defibrillators. A total of 211 respondents were recruited. Interviews were held with 30 key informants. Medical records were scrutinized. Relevant statistical tests were used. Resident doctors reported maximum frequency of AEs, followed by nurses; and least by consultants. A significant association was found between the cadre of health care personnel and awareness that the patients and bystanders have a risk of sustaining AE. Awareness regarding reporting of AEs was low, and it was generally done verbally. Other critical findings are discussed in the light of the barriers to reporting, reasons for non-compliance, recording system, and so on.

Keywords: Adverse events, health care technology, public sector hospital, reporting systems.

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Authors: R. Gvelesiani, I. Gogorishvili

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The concept of economic policy and the practical economic policy diverge from each other at a certain stage of development. This is related to the concept of realization of the underlying problems. It comes with all the problems emerged in the market oriented economic order due to the political processes based on social welfare policy. The realization of the concept of economic policy is impeded by economic and political obstacles. If you want to fill the appeared between the concept and reality, it is necessary to identify and avoid these obstacles. It requires the following: increase of the level of the knowledge of prevention technology in understanding of economic relations, as well as political aspects of the formation of ideas; perfection of economic policy toolkit, and political methods. It is necessary to realize what is the main precondition of implementation and further development of the concept of economic policy, as well as the formation of opinions about economic and public safety. This is a broad consensus on the basic values of the content and the scale of action, which the general public wants to be realized.

Keywords: Economic Policy, Basic Problems, Social Welfare Policy.

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Authors: Inês Vieira

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The migration-environment nexus has gained increased interest from the social research field over the last years. While straightly connected to human security issues, this theme has pervaded through the media to the public sphere. Therefore, it is important to observe how did the discussions over environmentally induced migrations develop from the scientific basis to the media attention, passing through some political voices, and in which ways might these messages be interpreted within the broader public discourses. To achieve this purpose, the analysis of the press entries between 2004 and 2010 in three of the main Portuguese newspapers shall be presented, specially reflecting upon the events, protagonists, topics, geographical attributions and terms/expressions used to define those who migrate due to environmental degradation or disasters.

Keywords: Climate refugees, environmental refugees, environmentally induced migrations, Portuguese written press

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Authors: Sudaporn Arundee

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The purposes of this research were to study in three areas: 1) to study political understanding and participating of the constitutional monarchy, 2) to study the level of participation. This paper drew upon data collected from 395 Dusit residents by using questionnaire. In addition, a simple random sampling was utilized to collect data.

The findings revealed that 94 percent of respondents had a very good understanding of constitution monarchy with a mean of 4.8. However, the respondents overall had a very low level of participation with the mean score of 1.69 and standard deviation of .719. 

Keywords: Constitution Monarchy, Political Understanding, Political Participating.

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Authors: Mohd Salehuddin Mohd Zahari, Noor Ibtisam Abdul Karim, Mohd Zain Kutut, Mohd Zulhilmi Suhaimi

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Many people regard food events as part of gastronomic tourism and important in enhancing visitors’ experiences. Realizing the importance and contribution of food events to a country’s economy, the Malaysia government is undertaking greater efforts to promote such tourism activities to international tourists. Among other food events, the Ramadan bazaar is a unique food culture event, which receives significant attention from the Malaysia Ministry of Tourism. This study reports the empirical investigation into the international tourists’ perceptions, attraction towards the Ramadan bazaar and willingness in disseminating the information. Using the Ramadan bazaar at Kampung Baru, Kuala Lumpur as the data collection setting, results revealed that the Ramadan bazaar attributes (food and beverages, events and culture) significantly influenced the international tourist attraction to such a bazaar. Their high level of experience and satisfaction positively influenced their willingness to disseminate information. The positive response among the international tourists indicates that the Ramadan bazaar as gastronomic tourism can be used in addition to other tourism products as a catalyst to generate and boost the local economy. The related authorities that are closely associated with the tourism industry therefore should not ignore this indicator but continue to take proactive action in promoting the gastronomic event as one of the major tourist attractions.

Keywords: Ramadan bazaar, international tourists, attraction, dissemination, information.

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Authors: Zarine Avetisyan

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The present paper presents the discussion of scholars concerning speech impact, peculiarities of its realization, speech strategies and techniques in particular. Departing from the viewpoints of many prominent linguists, the paper suggests that manipulative argumentation be viewed as a most pervasive speech strategy with a certain set of techniques which are to be found in modern American political discourse. The precedence of their occurrence allows us to regard them as pragmatic patterns of speech impact realization in effective public speaking.

Keywords: Manipulative argumentation, political discourse, speech impact, technique.

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Authors: Zohreh Bang Tavakoli, Shuktika Chatterjee

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This study is investigating the impact of ideological structures in terms of conservative and liberal on shaping immigration acceptance attitudes under the contribution of socio-economic status. According to motivated reasoning theory, political ideology is identified as a recurrent impact on the formation of attitude, while conservatives tend to express more hostility toward immigrants in comparison to liberals which are proposed to be more tolerant towards immigrants. Our finding suggests that political ideology will structure individual attitudes when citizens socio-economic vulnerability and level of education are low enough to consider immigrants as a threat. Therefore, economic vulnerability is proposed to weaken the ideological predispositions’ resistance. There has been some threats and factors such as level of education and economic condition proposed by group competition theory and labor market competition theory as fundamental factors which can strengthen or weaken the effects of political ideology on individuals’ attitudes towards immigration; those mechanisms for liberals and conservatives will be operated differently.

Keywords: Conservative, immigration, liberal, political ideology.

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Authors: Bo Liu, Qingshan Kong, Weiqing Huang

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With the rapid development of modern communication, diagnosing the fiber-optic quality and faults in real-time is widely focused. In this paper, a Labview-based system is proposed for fiber-optic faults detection. The wavelet threshold denoising method combined with Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is applied to denoise the optical time domain reflectometer (OTDR) signal. Then the method based on Gabor representation is used to detect events. Experimental measurements show that signal to noise ratio (SNR) of the OTDR signal is improved by 1.34dB on average, compared with using the wavelet threshold denosing method. The proposed system has a high score in event detection capability and accuracy. The maximum detectable fiber length of the proposed Labview-based system can be 65km.

Keywords: Empirical mode decomposition (EMD), events detection, Gabor transform, optical time domain reflectometer (OTDR), wavelet threshold denoising.

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Authors: S. Pesina, T. Solonchak

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In the process of information transmission (concept verbalization) we deal mostly with the substance (contents), and then pay attention to the form. Recalling events from the remote past, often we cannot exactly reproduce specific heard or pronounced words, as well as the syntactic structures. We remember events, feelings, images; we recall the general contents of the discourse. The thought gets a specific language form only during the concept verbalization phase. With minimum time for pondering, depending on the language competence level, the grammar and syntactic shaping often occurs automatically with the use of famous models and stereotypes. This means that the language form adapts itself to the consciousness, and not vice versa.

Keywords: Lexical eidos, phenomenology, noema, polysemantic word, semantic core.

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Authors: Umar Ubandawaki

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Political participation involves voluntary and deliberate efforts by the members of a political system to determine the kinds of political institution and individuals that will govern them and equally influence the mobilization and allocation of the available societal resources. Over the years, youths in Nigeria participate actively in political party rallies and voting to elect their leaders and representatives in governance. This paper examines categories and nature of participation in politics as well as factors that drive youths into politics in Sokoto State. A survey conducted, through focus group discussions, interviews and questionnaire, in the six sampled Local Government of Sokoto State identifies three category of political participation; namely, active, moderate and apathetic participation. The findings reveal that 63.57% of respondents are apathetic to politics in the State and unemployed youth constitutes 34.74% of the entire responses. The paper establishes that lack of attainment of need (63.22%) is one of the reasons that make youths engage into participatory activities that encourage political thuggery and manipulation of electoral outcomes. The paper recommends that youths should be engaged into positive rational participatory activities that ensure inclusiveness and promotion of good governance in Nigeria. It is hoped that this will enlighten youths and policy implementers on the constructive strategies in controlling youths’ negative participation in politics in Nigeria.

Keywords: Democracy, Governance, Inclusiveness, Participation and Politics.

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Authors: Samsudin A. Rahim, Latiffah Pawanteh, Ali Salman

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This paper explores the changing trend in citizenship norms among young citizens from various ethnic groups in Malaysia and the extent to which it influences the participation of young citizens in political and civil issues. Embedded in democratic constitutions are the rights and freedoms that accompany citizenship, and these rights and freedoms include participation. Participation in democracies should go beyond voting; it should include taking part in the governance process. The political process is not at risk even though politics does not work as it did in the past. A national sample of 1697 respondents between the ages of 21 and 40 years were interviewed in January 2011. The findings show that respondents embrace an engaged-citizenship norm more than they do the traditional duty-citizen norm. Among the ethnic groups, the Chinese show lower means in both citizenship norms compared with other ethnic groups, namely, the Malays and the Indians. The duty-citizen norm correlates higher with political participation than with civic participation. On the other hand, the engaged-citizen norm correlates higher with civic participation than with political participation.

Keywords: citizenship norms, political participation, civic participation, youths, globalization

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Authors: E. L. Suarez, D. E. Meeroff, Y. Yong

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Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: Community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding.

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Authors: Ek-Uma Imkome, Jintana Yunibhand, Waraporn Chaiyawat

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Background: Persons with schizophrenia patient and misusing methamphetamines suffering from social dysfunction that impact on their quality of life. Knowledge of factors related to social dysfunction will guide the effective intervention. Objectives: To determine the direct effect, indirect effect and total effect of an acerbate Psychotics’ Symptoms, Social Support, Stressful life events, Medication use self-efficacy impact on social dysfunction in Thai schizophrenic patient and methamphetamine misuse. Methods: Data were collected from schizophrenic and methamphetamine misuse patient by self report. A linear structural relationship was used to test the hypothesized path model. Results: The hypothesized model was found to fit the empirical data and explained 54% of the variance of the psychotic symptoms (X² = 114.35, df = 92, p-value = 0.05, X² /df = 1.24, GFI = 0.96, AGFI = 0.92, CFI = 1.00, NFI = 0.99, NNFI = 0.99, RMSEA = 0.02). The highest total effect on social dysfunction was psychotic symptoms (0.67, p<0.05). Medication use self-efficacy had a direct effect on psychotic symptoms (-0.25, p<0.01), and social support had direct effect on medication use self efficacy (0.36, p <0.01). Conclusions: Psychotic symptoms and stressful life events were the significance factors that influenced direct on social dysfunctioning. Therefore, interventions that are designed to manage these factors are crucial in order to enhance social functioning in this population.

Keywords: Psychotic symptoms, methamphetamine, schizophrenia, stressful life events, social dysfunction, social support, medication use self-efficacy.

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Authors: Masood Uzzafer

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A dynamic risk management framework for software projects is presented. Currently available software risk management frameworks and risk assessment models are static in nature and lacks feedback capability. Such risk management frameworks are not capable of providing the risk assessment of futuristic changes in risk events. A dynamic risk management framework for software project is needed that provides futuristic assessment of risk events.

Keywords: Software Risk Management, Dynamic Models, Software Project Managment.

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Authors: Mosaad Khadr, Gerd Morgenschweis, Andreas Schlenkhoff

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Drought is one of the most damaging climate-related hazards, it is generally considered as a prolonged absence of precipitation. This normal and recurring climate phenomenon had plagued civilization throughout history because of the negative impacts on economical, environmental and social sectors. Drought characteristics are thus recognized as important factors in water resources planning and management. The purpose of this study is to detect the changes in drought frequency, persistence and severity in the Ruhr river basin. The frequency of drought events was calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Used data are daily precipitation records from seven meteorological stations covering the period 1961-2007. The main benefit of the application of this index is its versatility, only rainfall data is required to deliver five major dimensions of a drought : duration, intensity, severity, magnitude, and frequency. Furthermore, drought can be calculated in different time steps. In this study SPI was calculated for 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months. Several drought events were detected in the covered period, these events contain mild, moderate and severe droughts. Also positive and negative trends in the SPI values were observed.

Keywords: Drought, Germany, Precipitation, Ruhr River, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Trend Test.

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

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The paper presents new results concerning selection of optimal information fusion formula for ensembles of C-OTDR channels. The goal of information fusion is to create an integral classificator designed for effective classification of seismoacoustic target events. The LPBoost (LP-β and LP-B variants), the Multiple Kernel Learning, and Weighing of Inversely as Lipschitz Constants (WILC) approaches were compared. The WILC is a brand new approach to optimal fusion of Lipschitz Classifiers Ensembles. Results of practical usage are presented.

Keywords: Lipschitz Classifier, Classifiers Ensembles, LPBoost, C-OTDR systems, ν-OTDR systems.

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Authors: Carrie Ho, Choo Bo Quan

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Urban non-point source (NPS) pollution for a residential catchment in Miri, Sarawak was investigated for two storm events in 2011. Runoff from two storm events were sampled and tested for water quality parameters including TSS, BOD5, COD, NH3-N, NO3-N, NO2-N, P and Pb. Concentration of the water quality parameters was found to vary significantly between storms and the pollutant of concern was found to be NO3-N, TSS, COD and Pb. Results were compared to the Interim National Water Quality Standards for Malaysia (INWQS),and the stormwater runoff from the study can be classified as polluted, exceeding class III water quality, especially in terms of TSS, COD, and NH3-N with maximum EMCs of 158, 135, and 2.17 mg/L, respectively.

Keywords: Residential land-use, urban runoff, water quality.

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Authors: Aiping Liu, Xiaoping Ying, Jing Luo

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53 college students answered questions regarding the circumstances in which they first heard about the news of Wenchuan earthquake or the news of their acceptance to college which took place approximately one year ago, and answered again two years later. The number of details recalled about their circumstances for both events was high and didn-t decline two years later. However, consistency in reported details over two years was low. Participants were more likely to construct central (e.g., Where were you?) than peripheral information (What were you wearing?), and the confidence of the central information was higher than peripheral information, which indicated that they constructed more when they were more confident.

Keywords: flashbulb memory, consistency, reconstructive error, confidence

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Authors: Entisar A. Elgmati

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Martingale model diagnostic for assessing the fit of logistic regression model to recurrent events data are studied. One way of assessing the fit is by plotting the empirical standard deviation of the standardized martingale residual processes. Here we used another diagnostic plot based on martingale residual covariance. We investigated the plot performance under several types of model misspecification. Clearly the method has correctly picked up the wrong model. Also we present a test statistic that supplement the inspection of the two diagnostic. The test statistic power agrees with what we have seen in the plots of the estimated martingale covariance.

Keywords: Covariance, logistic model, misspecification, recurrent events.

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Authors: Parvinder S. Sandhu, Vijay K. Banga, Prateek Gupta, Amit Verma

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The current paper conceptualizes the technique of release consistency indispensable with the concept of synchronization that is user-defined. Programming model concreted with object and class is illustrated and demonstrated. The essence of the paper is phases, events and parallel computing execution .The technique by which the values are visible on shared variables is implemented. The second part of the paper consist of user defined high level synchronization primitives implementation and system architecture with memory protocols. There is a proposition of techniques which are core in deciding the validating and invalidating a stall page .

Keywords: synchronization objects, barrier, phases and events, shared memory

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Authors: M. H. Fattahi, H. Jahangiri

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All the geophysical phenomena including river networks and flow time series are fractal events inherently and fractal patterns can be investigated through their behaviors. A non-linear system like a river basin can well be analyzed by a non-linear measure such as the fractal analysis. A bilateral study is held on the fractal properties of the river network and the river flow time series. A moving window technique is utilized to scan the fractal properties of them. Results depict both events follow the same strategy regarding to the fractal properties. Both the river network and the time series fractal dimension tend to saturate in a distinct value.

Keywords: river flow time series, fractal, river networks

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Authors: Yasemin Gülşen Yılmaz, Süleyman Hakan Yılmaz, Muhammet Erbay

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Military interventions have an important place in the Turkish Political History. Military interventions are commonly called coup in the society. By coup we mean that the armed forces seize political power either by a group of officer in the army or by chain of command. Coups not only weaken but also suspend the democracy in a country. All periods of coup created its own victims. Two military coups which took place in May 27, 1960 and September 12, 1980 are the most important ones in terms of political and social effect in the Turkish Political History. Apart these, March 12, 1971, February 28, 1997 and April 27, 2007 e-memorandum are the periods when Army submitted a memorandum and intervened the political government indirectly. Beside the memorandums and coups there were also many coup attempts that have been experienced in the Turkish Political History. In this study, we examined the coup attempted by FETO’s military members in the evening of July 15, 2016 from the point of the Turkish Press. Cumhuriyet, Haber Türk, Hürriyet, Milliyet, Sabah, Star, Yeni Akit and Yeni Şafak Newspapers which have different publication policies were examined within the scope of the study. The first pages of the newspapers dated July 16, 2016 were examined using content analysis method. The headlines, news, news headlines and the visual materials used for news were examined and the collected data were analysed.

Keywords: July 15, news, military coup, press.

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Authors: Farideh Sharififar, Zahra Jamalian, Reza Nikbakhsh, Zahra Nobakht Ramezani

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In sport, human resources management gives special attention to method of applying volunteers, their maintenance, and participation of volunteers with each other and management approaches for better operation of events celebrants. The recognition of volunteers- characteristics and motives is important to notice, because it makes the basis of their participation and commitment at sport environment. The motivation and commitment of 281 volunteers were assessed using the organizational commitment scale, motivation scale and personal characteristics questionnaire.The descriptive results showed that; 64% of volunteers were women with age average 21/24 years old. They were physical education student, single (71/9%), without occupation (53%) and with average of 5 years sport experience. Their most important motivation was career factor and the most important commitment factor was normative factor. The results of examining the hypothesized showed that; age, sport experience and education are effective in the amount of volunteers- commitment. And the motive factors such as career, material, purposive and protective factors also have the power to predict the amount of sports volunteers- commitment value. Therefore it is recommended to provide possible opportunities for volunteers and carrying out appropriate instructional courses by events executive managers.

Keywords: Sport Volunteers, Motivation, Organizational Commitment, Sport Event

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Authors: M. Benattou, K. Tamine

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This paper presents a distributed intrusion detection system IDS, based on the concept of specialized distributed agents community representing agents with the same purpose for detecting distributed attacks. The semantic of intrusion events occurring in a predetermined network has been defined. The correlation rules referring the process which our proposed IDS combines the captured events that is distributed both spatially and temporally. And then the proposed IDS tries to extract significant and broad patterns for set of well-known attacks. The primary goal of our work is to provide intrusion detection and real-time prevention capability against insider attacks in distributed and fully automated environments.

Keywords: Mobile agent, specialized agent, interpreter agent, event rules, correlation.

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Authors: Rosa Nurtazina, Yerkebulan Zhumashov, Maral Tomanova

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Humanity is entering an era when "virtual reality" as the image of the world created by the media with the help of the Internet does not match the reality in many respects, when new communication technologies create a fundamentally different and previously unknown "global space". According to these technologies, the state begins to change the basic technology of political communication of the state and society, the state and the state. Nowadays image of the state becomes the most important tool and technology.

Image is a purposefully created image granting political object (person, organization, country, etc.) certain social and political values and promoting more emotional perception.

Political image of the state plays an important role in international relations. The success of the country's foreign policy, development of trade and economic relations with other countries depends on whether it is positive or negative. Foreign policy image has an impact on political processes taking place in the state: the negative image of the country's can be used by opposition forces as one of the arguments to criticize the government and its policies.

Keywords: Image of the country, country's image classification, function of the country image, country's image components.

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Authors: Leila Batmany

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This research studies the relationship between the feeling of distributive justice and national identity of the youth. The present analysis intends to experimentally investigate the various dimensions of the justice feeling and its effect on the national identity components. The study has taken justice into consideration from four different points of view on the basis of availability of valuable social sources such as power, wealth, knowledge and status in the political, economic, and cultural and status justice respectively. Furthermore, the national identity has been considered as the feeling of honour, attachment and commitment towards national society and its seven components i.e. history, language, culture, political system, religion, geographical territory and society. The 'field study' has been used as the method for the research with the individual as unit, taking 368 young between the age of 18 and 29 living in Tehran, chosen randomly according to Cochran formula. The individual samples have been randomly chosen among five districts in north, south, west, east, and centre of Tehran, based on the multistage cluster sampling. The data collection has been performed with the use of questionnaire and interview. The most important results are as follows: i) The feeling of economic justice is the weakest one among the youth. ii) The strongest and the weakest dimensions of the national identity are, respectively, the historical and the social dimension. iii) There is a positive and meaningful relationship between the feeling political and statues justice and then national identity, whereas no meaningful relationship exists between the economic and cultural justice and the national identity. iv) There is a positive and meaningful relationship between the feeling of justice in all dimensions and legitimacy of the political system. There is also such a relationship between the legitimacy of the political system and national identity. v) Generally, there is a positive and meaningful relationship between the feeling of distributive justice and national identity among the youth. vi) It is through the legitimacy of the political system that justice feeling can have an influence on the national identity.

Keywords: Distributive justice, national identity, legitimacy of political system, Cochran formula, multistage cluster sampling.

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

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Previous studies on financial distress prediction choose the conventional failing and non-failing dichotomy; however, the distressed extent differs substantially among different financial distress events. To solve the problem, “non-distressed”, “slightlydistressed” and “reorganization and bankruptcy” are used in our article to approximate the continuum of corporate financial health. This paper explains different financial distress events using the two-stage method. First, this investigation adopts firm-specific financial ratios, corporate governance and market factors to measure the probability of various financial distress events based on multinomial logit models. Specifically, the bootstrapping simulation is performed to examine the difference of estimated misclassifying cost (EMC). Second, this work further applies macroeconomic factors to establish the credit cycle index and determines the distressed cut-off indicator of the two-stage models using such index. Two different models, one-stage and two-stage prediction models are developed to forecast financial distress, and the results acquired from different models are compared with each other, and with the collected data. The findings show that the one-stage model has the lower misclassification error rate than the two-stage model. The one-stage model is more accurate than the two-stage model.

Keywords: Multinomial logit model, corporate governance, company failure, reorganization, bankruptcy.

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Authors: Tomiris Tussupova

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The research highlights the influence of political conditions on the operations, investment decisions, and international production networks of Multinational Corporations (MNCs) and Transnational Corporations (TNCs). It investigates how factors such as political instability, protectionist policies, and regulatory changes impact the structure and functioning of International Production Cooperation (IPC). Furthermore, the analysis identifies gaps in the literature and formulates pertinent research questions to address in the paper. The study explores MNCs and TNCs' responses to changing political and economic conditions, emphasizing their strategies for adaptation. Additionally, it delves into the specific mechanisms employed by these corporations to mitigate risks and challenges arising from evolving political and economic landscapes. The research provides policy recommendations for governments, international organizations, and industry associations. These recommendations focus on enhancing policy stability, promoting regional integration, supporting digital technology adoption, and encouraging responsible and sustainable practices in IPC. By incorporating these suggestions, policymakers and practitioners can foster an enabling environment for MNCs and TNCs, thereby facilitating stable and efficient international production networks. Overall, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of the role of MNCs and TNCs in IPC under changing political and economic conditions. The insights garnered from this study can guide future research and inform policy decisions to promote sustainable and resilient international production cooperation.

Keywords: International cooperation, Multinational Corporations, Transnational Corporations, international production networks, Global Value Chains.

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