Search results for: extraordinary event.

Authors: Sukir Maryanto, Iyan Mulyana

Abstract:

Fractal analyses of successive event of explosion earthquake and harmonic tremor recorded at Semeru volcano were carried out to investigate the dynamical system regarding to their generating mechanism. The explosive eruptions accompanied by explosion earthquakes and following volcanic tremor which are generated by continuous emission of volcanic ash. The fractal dimension of successive event of explosion and harmonic tremor was estimated by Critical Exponent Method (CEM). It was found that the method yield a higher fractal dimension of explosion earthquakes and gradually decrease during the occurrence of harmonic tremor, and can be considerably as correlated complexity of the source mechanism from the variance of fractal dimension.

Keywords: Fractal dimension, Semeru volcano, explosionearthquake, harmonic tremor, Critical Exponent Method

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Authors: Noor Azryani Auzairy, Rubi Ahmad

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To strengthen the capital market, there is a need to integrate the capital markets within the region by removing legal or informal restriction, specifically, stock market liberalization. Thus the paper is to investigate the effects of the subsequent stock market liberalization on stock market integration in 4 ASEAN countries (Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore) and Korea from 1997 to 2007. The correlation between stock market liberalization and stock market integration are to be examined by analyzing the stock prices and returns within the region and in comparison with the world MSCI index. Event study method is to be used with windows of ±12 months and T-7 + T. The results show that the subsequent stock market liberalization generally, gives minor positive effects to stock returns, except for one or two countries. The subsequent liberalization also integrates the markets short-run and long-run.

Keywords: ASEAN, event method, stock market integration, stock market liberalization.

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Authors: Theodore N.S. Karfakis, Anna Andrade

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The aim of this study was to examine the dynamics of functional composition of a non flooded Amazonian forest in response to drought stress in terms of diameter growth, recruitment and mortality. The survey was carried out in the continuous forest of the Biological dynamics of forest fragments project 90 km outside the city of Manaus, state of Amazonas Brazil. All stems >10 cm dbh where identified to species level and monitored in 18 one hectare permanent sample plots from 1981 to 2004.For statistical analysis all species where aggregated in three ecological guilds. Two distinct drought events occurred in 1983 and 1997. Results showed that more early successional species performed better than later successional ones. Response was significant for both events but for the 1997 event this was more pronounced possibly because of the fact that the event was in the middle of the dry rather than the wet period as was the 1983 one.

Keywords: Brazil, functional composition, drought, Amazonian non flooded forest.

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Authors: A. Idawaty, O. Mohamed, A. Z. Zuriati

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This paper presents the development of an event based Discrete Event Simulation (DES) for a recovery algorithm known Backward Recovery Global Preemptive Utility Accrual Scheduling (BR_GPUAS). This algorithm implements the Backward Recovery (BR) mechanism as a fault recovery solution under the existing Time/Utility Function/ Utility Accrual (TUF/UA) scheduling domain for multiprocessor environment. The BR mechanism attempts to take the faulty tasks back to its initial safe state and then proceeds to re-execute the affected section of the faulty tasks to enable recovery. Considering that faults may occur in the components of any system; a fault tolerance system that can nullify the erroneous effect is necessary to be developed. Current TUF/UA scheduling algorithm uses the abortion recovery mechanism and it simply aborts the erroneous task as their fault recovery solution. None of the existing algorithm in TUF/UA scheduling domain in multiprocessor scheduling environment have considered the transient fault and implement the BR mechanism as a fault recovery mechanism to nullify the erroneous effect and solve the recovery problem in this domain. The developed BR_GPUAS simulator has derived the set of parameter, events and performance metrics according to a detailed analysis of the base model. Simulation results revealed that BR_GPUAS algorithm can saved almost 20-30% of the accumulated utilities making it reliable and efficient for the real-time application in the multiprocessor scheduling environment.

Keywords: Time Utility Function/ Utility Accrual (TUF/UA) scheduling, Real-time system (RTS), Backward Recovery, Multiprocessor, Discrete Event Simulation (DES).

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Authors: Rima Grati, Khouloud Boukadi, Hanene Ben-Abdallah

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Due to the dynamic nature of the Cloud, continuous monitoring of QoS requirements is necessary to manage the Cloud computing environment. The process of QoS monitoring and SLA violation detection consists of: collecting low and high level information pertinent to the service, analyzing the collected information, and taking corrective actions when SLA violations are detected. In this paper, we detail the architecture and the implementation of the first step of this process. More specifically, we propose an event-based approach to obtain run time information of services developed as BPEL processes. By catching particular events (i.e., the low level information), our approach recognizes the run-time execution path of a monitored service and uses the BPEL execution patterns to compute QoS of the composite service (i.e., the high level information).

Keywords: Monitoring of Web service composition, Cloud environment, Run-time extraction of execution path of BPEL.

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Authors: Muhammed Ordu, Eren Demir, Chris Tofallis

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Over the past decade, the non-elective admissions in the UK have increased significantly. Taking into account limited resources (i.e. beds), the related service managers are obliged to manage their resources effectively due to the non-elective admissions which are mostly admitted to inpatient specialities via A&E departments. Geriatric medicine is one of specialities that have long length of stay for the non-elective admissions. This study aims to develop a discrete event simulation model to understand how possible increases on non-elective demand over the next 12 months affect the bed occupancy rate and to determine required number of beds in a geriatric medicine speciality in a UK hospital. In our validated simulation model, we take into account observed frequency distributions which are derived from a big data covering the period April, 2009 to January, 2013, for the non-elective admission and the length of stay. An experimental analysis, which consists of 16 experiments, is carried out to better understand possible effects of case studies and scenarios related to increase on demand and number of bed. As a result, the speciality does not achieve the target level in the base model although the bed occupancy rate decreases from 125.94% to 96.41% by increasing the number of beds by 30%. In addition, the number of required beds is more than the number of beds considered in the scenario analysis in order to meet the bed requirement. This paper sheds light on bed management for service managers in geriatric medicine specialities.

Keywords: Bed management, bed occupancy rate, discrete event simulation, geriatric medicine, non-elective admission.

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Authors: Arvind Srivastav, Tarun Kanti Bhattacharyya

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The north-eastern, Himalayan, and Eastern Ghats Belt of India comprise of earthquake-prone, remote, and hilly terrains. Earthquakes have caused enormous damages in these regions in the past. A wireless sensor network based earthquake early warning system (EEWS) is being developed to mitigate the damages caused by earthquakes. It consists of sensor nodes, distributed over the region, that perform majority voting of the output of the seismic sensors in the vicinity, and relay a message to a base station to alert the residents when an earthquake is detected. At the heart of the EEWS is a low-power two-stage seismic sensor that continuously tracks seismic events from incoming three-axis accelerometer signal at the first-stage, and, in the presence of a seismic event, triggers the second-stage P-wave detector that detects the onset of P-wave in an earthquake event. The parameters of the P-wave detector have been optimized for minimizing detection time and maximizing the accuracy of detection.Working of the sensor scheme has been verified with seven earthquakes data retrieved from IRIS. In all test cases, the scheme detected the onset of P-wave accurately. Also, it has been established that the P-wave onset detection time reduces linearly with the sampling rate. It has been verified with test data; the detection time for data sampled at 10Hz was around 2 seconds which reduced to 0.3 second for the data sampled at 100Hz.

Keywords: Earthquake early warning system, EEWS, STA/LTA, polarization, wavelet, event detector, P-wave detector.

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Authors: W. Louhichi, M.Berrima, N. Ben Rajeb Robbana

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Elasticity is the essential property of cloud computing. As the name suggests, it constitutes the ability of a cloud system to adjust resource provisioning in relation to fluctuating workloads. There are two types of elasticity operations, vertical and horizontal. In this work, we are interested in horizontal scaling, which is ensured by two mechanisms; scaling in and scaling out. Following the sizing of the system, we can adopt scaling in the event of over-supply and scaling out in the event of under-supply. In this paper, we propose a formal model, based on temporized and colored Petri nets (TdCPNs), for the modeling of the duplication and the removal of a virtual machine from a server. This model is based on formal Petri Nets (PNs) modeling language. The proposed models are edited, verified, and simulated with two examples implemented in colored Petri nets (CPNs)tools, which is a modeling tool for colored and timed PNs.

Keywords: Cloud computing, elasticity, elasticity controller, petri nets, scaling in, scaling out.

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Authors: Andreas Jede, Frank Teuteberg

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Cloud computing (CC) has already gained overall appreciation in research and practice. Whereas the willingness to integrate cloud services in various IT environments is still unbroken, the previous CC procurement processes run mostly in an unorganized and non-standardized way. In practice, a sufficiently specific, yet applicable business process for the important acquisition phase is often lacking. And research does not appropriately remedy this deficiency yet. Therefore, this paper introduces a field-tested approach for CC procurement. Based on an extensive literature review and augmented by expert interviews, we designed a model that is validated and further refined through an in-depth real-life case study. For the detailed process description, we apply the event-driven process chain notation (EPC). The gained valuable insights into the case study may help CC research to shift to a more socio-technical area. For practice, next to giving useful organizational instructions we will provide extended checklists and lessons learned.

Keywords: Cloud Procurement Process, IT-Organization, Event-driven Process Chain, In-depth Case Study.

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Authors: Deepali Virmani , Satbir Jain

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To meet the demands of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) where data are usually aggregated at a single source prior to transmitting to any distant user, there is a need to establish a tree structure inside any given event region. In this paper , a novel technique to create one such tree is proposed .This tree preserves the energy and maximizes the lifetime of event sources while they are constantly transmitting for data aggregation. The term Decentralized Lifetime Maximizing Tree (DLMT) is used to denote this tree. DLMT features in nodes with higher energy tend to be chosen as data aggregating parents so that the time to detect the first broken tree link can be extended and less energy is involved in tree maintenance. By constructing the tree in such a way, the protocol is able to reduce the frequency of tree reconstruction, minimize the amount of data loss ,minimize the delay during data collection and preserves the energy.

Keywords: branch energy, decentralized, energy level , lifetime, tree energy, wireless sensor networks.

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Authors: T.P. Sharma

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Querying a data source and routing data towards sink becomes a serious challenge in static wireless sensor networks if sink and/or data source are mobile. Many a times the event to be observed either moves or spreads across wide area making maintenance of continuous path between source and sink a challenge. Also, sink can move while query is being issued or data is on its way towards sink. In this paper, we extend our already proposed Grid Based Data Dissemination (GBDD) scheme which is a virtual grid based topology management scheme restricting impact of movement of sink(s) and event(s) to some specific cells of a grid. This obviates the need for frequent path modifications and hence maintains continuous flow of data while minimizing the network energy consumptions. Simulation experiments show significant improvements in network energy savings and average packet delay for a packet to reach at sink.

Keywords: Mobility in WSNs, virtual grid, GBDD, clustering.

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Authors: Junghoon Lee, Gyung-Leen Park, Ho-Young Kwak, Cheol Min Kim

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This paper presents the design and implements the prototype of an intelligent data processing framework in ubiquitous sensor networks. Much focus is put on how to handle the sensor data stream as well as the interoperability between the low-level sensor data and application clients. Our framework first addresses systematic middleware which mitigates the interaction between the application layer and low-level sensors, for the sake of analyzing a great volume of sensor data by filtering and integrating to create value-added context information. Then, an agent-based architecture is proposed for real-time data distribution to efficiently forward a specific event to the appropriate application registered in the directory service via the open interface. The prototype implementation demonstrates that our framework can host a sophisticated application on the ubiquitous sensor network and it can autonomously evolve to new middleware, taking advantages of promising technologies such as software agents, XML, cloud computing, and the like.

Keywords: sensor network, intelligent farm, middleware, event detection

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Authors: E. L. Suarez, D. E. Meeroff, Y. Yong

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Current flooding risk modeling focuses on resilience, defined as the probability of recovery from a severe flooding event. However, the long-term damage to property and well-being by nuisance flooding and its long-term effects on communities are not typically included in risk assessments. An approach was developed to address the probability of recovering from a severe flooding event combined with the probability of community performance during a nuisance event. A consolidated model, namely the conflation flooding recovery (&FR) model, evaluates risk-coping mitigation strategies for communities based on the recovery time from catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or extreme surges, and from everyday nuisance flooding events. The &FR model assesses the variation contribution of each independent input and generates a weighted output that favors the distribution with minimum variation. This approach is especially useful if the input distributions have dissimilar variances. The &FR is defined as a single distribution resulting from the product of the individual probability density functions. The resulting conflated distribution resides between the parent distributions, and it infers the recovery time required by a community to return to basic functions, such as power, utilities, transportation, and civil order, after a flooding event. The &FR model is more accurate than averaging individual observations before calculating the mean and variance or averaging the probabilities evaluated at the input values, which assigns the same weighted variation to each input distribution. The main disadvantage of these traditional methods is that the resulting measure of central tendency is exactly equal to the average of the input distribution’s means without the additional information provided by each individual distribution variance. When dealing with exponential distributions, such as resilience from severe flooding events and from nuisance flooding events, conflation results are equivalent to the weighted least squares method or best linear unbiased estimation. The combination of severe flooding risk with nuisance flooding improves flood risk management for highly populated coastal communities, such as in South Florida, USA, and provides a method to estimate community flood recovery time more accurately from two different sources, severe flooding events and nuisance flooding events.

Keywords: Community resilience, conflation, flood risk, nuisance flooding.

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Authors: Esra E. Aleisa

Abstract:

A local municipality has decided to build a sewage pit to receive residential sewage waste arriving by tank trucks. Daily accumulated waste are to be pumped to a nearby waste water treatment facility to be re-consumed for agricultural and construction projects. A discrete-event simulation model using Arena Software was constructed to assist in defining the capacity of the system in cubic meters, number of tank trucks to use the system, number of unload docks required, number of standby areas needed and manpower required for data collection at entrance checkpoint and truck tank load toxicity testing. The results of the model are statistically validated. Simulation turned out to be an excellent tool in the facility planning effort for the pit project, as it insured smooth flow lines of tank trucks load discharge and best utilization of facilities on site.

Keywords: Discrete-event simulation, Facilities Planning, Layout, Pit, Sewage management.

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Authors: Antonis Skouloudis, Georgios Deligiannakis, Panagiotis Vouros, Konstantinos Evangelinos, Ioannis Nikolaou

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On November 15th, 2017, a catastrophic flash flood devastated the city of Mandra in Central Greece, resulting in 24 fatalities and extensive damages to the built environment and infrastructure. It was Greece’s deadliest and most destructive flood event for the past 40 years. In this paper, we examine the consequences of this event to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) operating in Mandra during the flood event, which were affected by the floodwaters to varying extents. In this context, we conducted semi-structured interviews with business owners-managers of 45 SMEs located in flood inundated areas and are still active nowadays, based on an interview guide that spanned 27 topics. The topics pertained to the disaster experience of the business and business owners-managers, knowledge and attitudes towards climate change and extreme weather, aspects of disaster preparedness and related assistance needs. Our findings reveal that the vast majority of the affected businesses experienced heavy damages in equipment and infrastructure or total destruction, which resulted in business interruption from several weeks up to several months. Assistance from relatives or friends helped for the damage repairs and business recovery, while state compensations were deemed insufficient compared to the extent of the damages. Most interviewees pinpoint flooding as one of the most critical risks, and many connect it with the climate crisis. However, they are either not willing or unable to apply property-level prevention measures in their businesses due to cost considerations or complex and cumbersome bureaucratic processes. In all cases, the business owners are fully aware of the flood hazard implications, and since the recovery from the event, they have engaged in basic mitigation measures and contingency plans in case of future flood events. Such plans include insurance contracts whenever possible (as the vast majority of the affected SMEs were uninsured at the time of the 2017 event) as well as simple relocations of critical equipment within their property. The study offers fruitful insights on latent drivers and barriers of SMEs’ resilience capacity to flash flooding. In this respect, findings such as ours, highlighting tensions that underpin behavioural responses and experiences, can feed into: a) bottom-up approaches for devising actionable and practical guidelines, manuals and/or standards on business preparedness to flooding, and, ultimately, b) policy-making for an enabling environment towards a flood-resilient SME sector.

Keywords: Flash flood, small and medium-sized enterprises, organisational resilience capacity, disaster preparedness, qualitative study.

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Authors: Brenden M. Shutt, Lubjana Beshaj, Paul L. Goethals, Ambrose Kam

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Communication security is of particular interest to military data networks. A relatively novel approach to network security is blockchain, a cryptographically secured distribution ledger with a decentralized consensus mechanism for data transaction processing. Recent advances in blockchain technology have proposed new techniques for both data validation and trust management, as well as different frameworks for managing dataflow. The purpose of this work is to test the feasibility of different blockchain architectures as applied to military command and control networks. Various architectures are tested through discrete-event simulation and the feasibility is determined based upon a blockchain design’s ability to maintain long-term stable performance at industry standards of throughput, network latency, and security. This work proposes a consortium blockchain architecture with a computationally inexpensive consensus mechanism, one that leverages a Proof-of-Identity (PoI) concept and a reputation management mechanism.

Keywords: Blockchain, command & control network, discrete-event simulation, reputation management.

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Authors: Intan Izafina Idrus, Mardina Abdullah, Alina Marie Hasbi, Asnawi Husin

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This paper presents the result of large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbance (LSTID) observation during moderate magnetic storm event on 25 October 2011 with SYM-H ~ -160 nT and Kp ~ 7 over Peninsular Malaysia at equatorial region using vertical total electron content (VTEC) from the Global Positioning System (GPS) observation measurement. The propagation of the LSTID signatures in the TEC measurements over Peninsular Malaysia was also investigated using VTEC map. The LSTID was found to propagate equatorward during this event. The results showed that the LSTID propagated with an average phase velocity of 526.41 m/s and average periods of 140 min. The occurrence of this LSTID was also found to be the subsequent effects of substorm activities in the auroral region.

Keywords: Global Positioning System (GPS), large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbance (LSTID), moderate geomagnetic storm, vertical total electron content (VTEC).

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Authors: Tyng-Rong Roan, Fuji Foo, Wenwey Hseush

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Recent development of AI and edge computing plays a critical role to capture meaningful events such as detection of an unattended bag. One of the core problems is re-identification across multiple CCTVs. Immediately following the detection of a meaningful event is to track and trace the objects related to the event. In an extensive environment, the challenge becomes severe when the number of CCTVs increases substantially, imposing difficulties in achieving high accuracy while maintaining real-time performance. The algorithm that re-identifies cross-boundary objects for extensive tracking is referred to Extensive Re-Identification, which emphasizes the issues related to the complexity behind a great number of CCTVs. The Spatial-Temporal Awareness approach challenges the conventional thinking and concept of operations which is labor intensive and time consuming. The ability to perform Extensive Re-Identification through a multi-sensory network provides the next-level insights – creating value beyond traditional risk management.

Keywords: Long-short-term memory, re-identification, security critical application, spatial-temporal awareness.

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Authors: Hye Lyeong Kim, Sang Yeong Choi

Abstract:

This paper discusses a discrete event simulation model for the availability analysis of weapon systems. This model incorporates missions, operational tasks and system reliability structures to analyze the availability of a weapon system. The proposed simulation model consists of 5 modules: Simulation Engine, Maintenance Organizations, System, its Mission Profile and RBD which are based on missions and operational tasks. Simulation Engine executes three kinds of discrete events in chronological order. The events are mission events generated by Mission Profile, failure events generated by System, and maintenance events executed by Maintenance Organization. Finally, this paper shows the case study of a system's availability analysis and mission reliability using the simulation model.

Keywords: MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure), MTTR (Mean Time To Repair), Availability, Reliability, RBD (Reliability Block Diagram)

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Authors: Woei-Shyan Lee, Shuo-Ling Chang

Abstract:

The nanoindentation behaviour and phase transformation of annealed single-crystal silicon wafers are examined. The silicon specimens are annealed at temperatures of 250, 350 and 450ºC, respectively, for 15 minutes and are then indented to maximum loads of 30, 50 and 70 mN. The phase changes induced in the indented specimens are observed using transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and micro-Raman scattering spectroscopy (RSS). For all annealing temperatures, an elbow feature is observed in the unloading curve following indentation to a maximum load of 30 mN. Under higher loads of 50 mN and 70 mN, respectively, the elbow feature is replaced by a pop-out event. The elbow feature reveals a complete amorphous phase transformation within the indented zone, whereas the pop-out event indicates the formation of Si XII and Si III phases. The experimental results show that the formation of these crystalline silicon phases increases with an increasing annealing temperature and indentation load. The hardness and Young’s modulus both decrease as the annealing temperature and indentation load are increased.

Keywords: Nanoindentation, silicon, phase transformation, amorphous, annealing.

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Authors: Anahita Farhang Ghahfarokhi, Alessandro Berti, Wil M.P. van der Aalst

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Process mining provides ways to analyze business processes. Common process mining techniques consider the process as a whole. However, in real-life business processes, different behaviors exist that make the overall process too complex to interpret. Process comparison is a branch of process mining that isolates different behaviors of the process from each other by using process cubes. Process cubes organize event data using different dimensions. Each cell contains a set of events that can be used as an input to apply process mining techniques. Existing work on process cubes assume single case notions. However, in real processes, several case notions (e.g., order, item, package, etc.) are intertwined. Object-centric process mining is a new branch of process mining addressing multiple case notions in a process. To make a bridge between object-centric process mining and process comparison, we propose a process cube framework, which supports process cube operations such as slice and dice on object-centric event logs. To facilitate the comparison, the framework is integrated with several object-centric process discovery approaches.

Keywords: Process mining, multidimensional process mining, multi-perspective business processes, OLAP, process cubes, process discovery.

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Authors: Jill Stephenson, Marie Vaganay, Robert Cameron, Caoimhe McGurk, Neil Hewitt

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Purpose: The key aim of the research was to identify the secondary stressors experienced by businesses affected by single or repeated flooding and to determine to what extent businesses were affected by these stressors, along with any resulting impact on health. Additionally the research aimed to establish the likelihood of businesses being re-exposed to the secondary stressors through assessing awareness of flood risk, implementation of property protection measures and level of community resilience. Design/methodology/approach: The chosen research method involved the distribution of a questionnaire survey to businesses affected by either single or repeated flood events. The questionnaire included the Impact of Event Scale (a 15-item self-report measure which assesses subjective distress caused by traumatic events). Findings: 55 completed questionnaires were returned by flood impacted businesses. 89% of the businesses had sustained internal flooding, while 11% had experienced external flooding. The results established that the key secondary stressors experienced by businesses, in order of priority, were: flood damage, fear of reoccurring flooding, prevention of access to the premise/closure, loss of income, repair works, length of closure and insurance issues. There was a lack of preparedness for potential future floods and consequent vulnerability to the emergence of secondary stressors among flood affected businesses, as flood resistance or flood resilience measures had only been implemented by 11% and 13% respectively. In relation to the psychological repercussions, the Impact of Event scores suggested that potential prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was noted among 8 out of 55 respondents (l5%). Originality/value: The results improve understanding of the enduring repercussions of flood events on businesses, indicating that not only residents may be susceptible to the detrimental health impacts of flood events and single flood events may be just as likely as reoccurring flooding to contribute to ongoing stress. Lack of financial resources is a possible explanation for the lack of implementation of property protection measures among businesses, despite 49% experiencing flooding on multiple occasions. Therefore it is recommended that policymakers should consider potential sources of financial support or grants towards flood defences for flood impacted businesses. Any form of assistance should be made available to businesses at the earliest opportunity as there was no significant association between the time of the last flood event and the likelihood of experiencing PTSD symptoms.

Keywords: Flood event, flood resilience, flood resistance, PTSD, secondary stressors.

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Authors: Emad Alenany, M. Adel El-Baz

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In this paper, the flow of different classes of patients into a hospital is modelled and analyzed by using the queueing network analyzer (QNA) algorithm and discrete event simulation. Input data for QNA are the rate and variability parameters of the arrival and service times in addition to the number of servers in each facility. Patient flows mostly match real flow for a hospital in Egypt. Based on the analysis of the waiting times, two approaches are suggested for improving performance: Separating patients into service groups, and adopting different service policies for sequencing patients through hospital units. The separation of a specific group of patients, with higher performance target, to be served separately from the rest of patients requiring lower performance target, requires the same capacity while improves performance for the selected group of patients with higher target. Besides, it is shown that adopting the shortest processing time and shortest remaining processing time service policies among other tested policies would results in, respectively, 11.47% and 13.75% reduction in average waiting time relative to first come first served policy.

Keywords: Queueing network, discrete-event simulation, health applications, SPT.

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Authors: N. Borjalilu, P. Rabiei, A. Enjoo

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Flight Data Monitoring (FDM) program assists an operator in aviation industries to identify, quantify, assess and address operational safety risks, in order to improve safety of flight operations. FDM is a powerful tool for an aircraft operator integrated into the operator’s Safety Management System (SMS), allowing to detect, confirm, and assess safety issues and to check the effectiveness of corrective actions, associated with human errors. This article proposes a model for safety risk assessment level of flight data in a different aspect of event focus based on fuzzy set values. It permits to evaluate the operational safety level from the point of view of flight activities. The main advantages of this method are proposed qualitative safety analysis of flight data. This research applies the opinions of the aviation experts through a number of questionnaires Related to flight data in four categories of occurrence that can take place during an accident or an incident such as: Runway Excursions (RE), Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT), Mid-Air Collision (MAC), Loss of Control in Flight (LOC-I). By weighting each one (by F-TOPSIS) and applying it to the number of risks of the event, the safety risk of each related events can be obtained.

Keywords: F-TOPSIS, fuzzy set, FDM, flight safety.

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Authors: A. Kablan

Abstract:

The prediction of financial time series is a very complicated process. If the efficient market hypothesis holds, then the predictability of most financial time series would be a rather controversial issue, due to the fact that the current price contains already all available information in the market. This paper extends the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for High Frequency Trading which is an expert system that is capable of using fuzzy reasoning combined with the pattern recognition capability of neural networks to be used in financial forecasting and trading in high frequency. However, in order to eliminate unnecessary input in the training phase a new event based volatility model was proposed. Taking volatility and the scaling laws of financial time series into consideration has brought about the development of the Intraday Seasonality Observation Model. This new model allows the observation of specific events and seasonalities in data and subsequently removes any unnecessary data. This new event based volatility model provides the ANFIS system with more accurate input and has increased the overall performance of the system.

Keywords: Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference system, High Frequency Trading, Intraday Seasonality Observation Model.

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Authors: Ranjan Sarukkalige, Joseph Sanjaya Ma

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Flood management is one of the important fields in urban storm water management. Floods are influenced by the increase of huge storm event, or improper planning of the area. This study mainly provides the flood protection in four stages; planning, flood event, responses and evaluation. However it is most effective then flood protection is considered in planning/design and evaluation stages since both stages represent the land development of the area. Structural adjustments are often more reliable than nonstructural adjustments in providing flood protection, however structural adjustments are constrained by numerous factors such as political constraints and cost. Therefore it is important to balance both adjustments with the situation. The technical decisions provided will have to be approved by the higher-ups who have the power to decide on the final solution. Costs however, are the biggest factor in determining the final decision. Therefore this study recommends flood protection system should have been integrated and enforces more in the early stages (planning and design) as part of the storm water management plan. Factors influencing the technical decisions provided should be reduced as low as possible to avoid a reduction in the expected performance of the proposed adjustments.

Keywords: Urban Flood, flood protection, water management, storm water, cost,

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Authors: Javier Barbaran, Manuel Dıaz, Inaki Esteve, Bartolome Rubio

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Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) have attracted the attention of many researchers. This has resulted in their rapid integration in very different areas such as precision agriculture,environmental monitoring, object and event detection and military surveillance. Due to the current WSN characteristics this technology is specifically useful in industrial areas where security, reliability and autonomy are basic, such as nuclear power plants, chemical plants, and others. In this paper we present a system based on WSNs to monitor environmental conditions around and inside a nuclear power plant, specifically, radiation levels. Sensor nodes, equipped with radiation sensors, are deployed in fixed positions throughout the plant. In addition, plant staff are also equipped with mobile devices with higher capabilities than sensors such as for example PDAs able to monitor radiation levels and other conditions around them. The system enables communication between PDAs, which form a Mobile Ad-hoc Wireless Network (MANET), and allows workers to monitor remote conditions in the plant. It is particularly useful during stoppage periods for inspection or in the event of an accident to prevent risk situations.

Keywords: MANETs, Mobile computing, Radiation monitoring, Wireless Sensor Networks.

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Authors: J. Šejnoha, D. Jarušková, O. Špačková, E. Novotná

Abstract:

Construction of tunnels is connected with high uncertainty in the field of costs, construction period, safety and impact on surroundings. Risk management became therefore a common part of tunnel projects, especially after a set of fatal collapses occurred in 1990's. Such collapses are caused usually by combination of factors that can be divided into three main groups, i.e. unfavourable geological conditions, failures in the design and planning or failures in the execution. This paper suggests a procedure enabling quantification of the excavation risk related to extraordinary accidents using FTA and ETA tools. It will elaborate on a common process of risk analysis and enable the transfer of information and experience between particular tunnel construction projects. Further, it gives a guide for designers, management and other participants, how to deal with risk of such accidents and how to make qualified decisions based on a probabilistic approach.

Keywords: risk quantification, tunnel collapse, ETA, FTA, geotechnical risk

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Authors: M.Saleem Khan, Khaled Benkrid

Abstract:

This paper presents a time control liquids mixing system in the tanks as an application of fuzzy time control discrete model. The system is designed for a wide range of industrial applications. The simulation design of control system has three inputs: volume, viscosity, and selection of product, along with the three external control adjustments for the system calibration or to take over the control of the system autonomously in local or distributed environment. There are four controlling elements: rotatory motor, grinding motor, heating and cooling units, and valves selection, each with time frame limit. The system consists of three controlled variables measurement through its sensing mechanism for feed back control. This design also facilitates the liquids mixing system to grind certain materials in tanks and mix with fluids under required temperature controlled environment to achieve certain viscous level. Design of: fuzzifier, inference engine, rule base, deffuzifiers, and discrete event control system, is discussed. Time control fuzzy rules are formulated, applied and tested using MATLAB simulation for the system.

Keywords: Fuzzy time control, industrial application and timecontrol systems, adjustment of Fuzzy system, liquids mixing system, design of fuzzy time control DEV system.

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Authors: Hiroshi Abe, Minoru Nakayama

Abstract:

The frontal area in the brain is known to be involved in behavioral judgement. Because a Kanji character can be discriminated visually and linguistically from other characters, in Kanji character discrimination, we hypothesized that frontal event-related potential (ERP) waveforms reflect two discrimination processes in separate time periods: one based on visual analysis and the other based on lexcical access. To examine this hypothesis, we recorded ERPs while performing a Kanji lexical decision task. In this task, either a known Kanji character, an unknown Kanji character or a symbol was presented and the subject had to report if the presented character was a known Kanji character for the subject or not. The same response was required for unknown Kanji trials and symbol trials. As a preprocessing of signals, we examined the performance of a method using independent component analysis for artifact rejection and found it was effective. Therefore we used it. In the ERP results, there were two time periods in which the frontal ERP wavefoms were significantly different betweeen the unknown Kanji trials and the symbol trials: around 170ms and around 300ms after stimulus onset. This result supported our hypothesis. In addition, the result suggests that Kanji character lexical access may be fully completed by around 260ms after stimulus onset.

Keywords: Character discrimination, Event-related Potential, IndependentComponent Analysis, Kanji, Lexical access.

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