Search results for: Numerical weather prediction (NWP)
3345 Some Results on the Generalized Higher Rank Numerical Ranges
Authors: Mohsen Zahraei
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In this paper, the notion of rank−k numerical range of rectangular complex matrix polynomials are introduced. Some algebraic and geometrical properties are investigated. Moreover, for Є > 0, the notion of Birkhoff-James approximate orthogonality sets for Є−higher rank numerical ranges of rectangular matrix polynomials is also introduced and studied. The proposed definitions yield a natural generalization of the standard higher rank numerical ranges.Keywords: Rank−k numerical range, isometry, numerical range, rectangular matrix polynomials.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15723344 On Adaptive Optimization of Filter Performance Based on Markov Representation for Output Prediction Error
Authors: Hong Son Hoang, Remy Baraille
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This paper addresses the problem of how one can improve the performance of a non-optimal filter. First the theoretical question on dynamical representation for a given time correlated random process is studied. It will be demonstrated that for a wide class of random processes, having a canonical form, there exists a dynamical system equivalent in the sense that its output has the same covariance function. It is shown that the dynamical approach is more effective for simulating and estimating a Markov and non- Markovian random processes, computationally is less demanding, especially with increasing of the dimension of simulated processes. Numerical examples and estimation problems in low dimensional systems are given to illustrate the advantages of the approach. A very useful application of the proposed approach is shown for the problem of state estimation in very high dimensional systems. Here a modified filter for data assimilation in an oceanic numerical model is presented which is proved to be very efficient due to introducing a simple Markovian structure for the output prediction error process and adaptive tuning some parameters of the Markov equation.Keywords: Statistical simulation, canonical form, dynamical system, Markov and non-Markovian processes, data assimilation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 12883343 QoS Improvement Using Intelligent Algorithm under Dynamic Tropical Weather for Earth-Space Satellite Applications
Authors: Joseph S. Ojo, Vincent A. Akpan, Oladayo G. Ajileye, Olalekan L, Ojo
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In this paper, the intelligent algorithm (IA) that is capable of adapting to dynamical tropical weather conditions is proposed based on fuzzy logic techniques. The IA effectively interacts with the quality of service (QoS) criteria irrespective of the dynamic tropical weather to achieve improvement in the satellite links. To achieve this, an adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) has been adopted. The algorithm is capable of interacting with the weather fluctuation to generate appropriate improvement to the satellite QoS for efficient services to the customers. 5-year (2012-2016) rainfall rate of one-minute integration time series data has been used to derive fading based on ITU-R P. 618-12 propagation models. The data are obtained from the measurement undertaken by the Communication Research Group (CRG), Physics Department, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria. The rain attenuation and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) were derived for frequency between Ku and V-band and propagation angle with respect to different transmitting power. The simulated results show a substantial reduction in SNR especially for application in the area of digital video broadcast-second generation coding modulation satellite networks.
Keywords: Fuzzy logic, intelligent algorithm, Nigeria, QoS, satellite applications, tropical weather.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 8063342 On the Prediction of Transmembrane Helical Segments in Membrane Proteins
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The prediction of transmembrane helical segments (TMHs) in membrane proteins is an important field in the bioinformatics research. In this paper, a method based on discrete wavelet transform (DWT) has been developed to predict the number and location of TMHs in membrane proteins. PDB coded as 1F88 was chosen as an example to describe the prediction of the number and location of TMHs in membrane proteins by using this method. One group of test data sets that contain total 19 protein sequences was utilized to access the effect of this method. Compared with the prediction results of DAS, PRED-TMR2, SOSUI, HMMTOP2.0 and TMHMM2.0, the obtained results indicate that the presented method has higher prediction accuracy.Keywords: hydrophobicity, membrane protein, transmembranehelical segments, wavelet transform
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15703341 Simulation of Thermal Storage Phase Change Material in Buildings
Authors: Samira Haghshenaskashani, Hadi Pasdarshahri
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One of the potential and effective ways of storing thermal energy in buildings is the integration of brick with phase change materials (PCMs). This paper presents a two-dimensional model for simulating and analyzing of PCM in order to minimize energy consumption in the buildings. The numerical approach has been used with the real weather data of a selected city of Iran (Tehran). Two kinds of brick integrated PCM are investigated and compared base on outdoor weather conditions and the amount of energy consumption. The results show a significant reduction in maximum entering heat flux to building about 32.8% depending on PCM quantity. The results are analyzed by various temperature contour plots. The contour plots illustrated the time dependent mechanism of entering heat flux for a brick integrated with PCM. Further analysis is developed to investigate the effect of PCM location on the inlet heat flux. The results demonstrated that to achieve maximum performance of PCM it is better to locate PCM near the outdoor.Keywords: Building, Energy Storage, PCM, Phase Change Material
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21753340 Settlement Prediction for Tehran Subway Line-3 via FLAC3D and ANFIS
Authors: S. A. Naeini, A. Khalili
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Nowadays, tunnels with different applications are developed, and most of them are related to subway tunnels. The excavation of shallow tunnels that pass under municipal utilities is very important, and the surface settlement control is an important factor in the design. The study sought to analyze the settlement and also to find an appropriate model in order to predict the behavior of the tunnel in Tehran subway line-3. The displacement in these sections is also determined by using numerical analyses and numerical modeling. In addition, the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method is utilized by Hybrid training algorithm. The database pertinent to the optimum network was obtained from 46 subway tunnels in Iran and Turkey which have been constructed by the new Austrian tunneling method (NATM) with similar parameters based on type of their soil. The surface settlement was measured, and the acquired results were compared to the predicted values. The results disclosed that computing intelligence is a good substitute for numerical modeling.
Keywords: Settlement, subway line, FLAC3D, ANFIS method.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10833339 Numerical Simulation of the Flow Field around a 30° Inclined Flat Plate
Authors: M. Raciti Castelli, P. Cioppa, E. Benini
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This paper presents a CFD analysis of the flow around a 30° inclined flat plate of infinite span. Numerical predictions have been compared to experimental measurements, in order to assess the potential of the finite volume code of determining the aerodynamic forces acting on a flat plate invested by a fluid stream of infinite extent. Several turbulence models and spatial node distributions have been tested and flow field characteristics in the neighborhood of the flat plate have been numerically investigated, allowing the development of a preliminary procedure to be used as guidance in selecting the appropriate grid configuration and the corresponding turbulence model for the prediction of the flow field over a twodimensional inclined plate.Keywords: CFD, lift, drag, flat plate
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 32973338 Aerodynamic Prediction and Performance Analysis for Mars Science Laboratory Entry Vehicle
Authors: Tang Wei, Yang Xiaofeng, Gui Yewei, Du Yanxia
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Complex lifting entry was selected for precise landing performance during the Mars Science Laboratory entry. This study aims to develop the three-dimensional numerical method for precise computation and the surface panel method for rapid engineering prediction. Detailed flow field analysis for Mars exploration mission was performed by carrying on a series of fully three-dimensional Navier-Stokes computations. The static aerodynamic performance was then discussed, including the surface pressure, lift and drag coefficient, lift-to-drag ratio with the numerical and engineering method. Computation results shown that the shock layer is thin because of lower effective specific heat ratio, and that calculated results from both methods agree well with each other, and is consistent with the reference data. Aerodynamic performance analysis shows that CG location determines trim characteristics and pitch stability, and certain radially and axially shift of the CG location can alter the capsule lifting entry performance, which is of vital significance for the aerodynamic configuration design and inner instrument layout of the Mars entry capsule.Keywords: Mars entry capsule, static aerodynamics, computational fluid dynamics, hypersonic.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 30253337 Customer Churn Prediction: A Cognitive Approach
Authors: Damith Senanayake, Lakmal Muthugama, Laksheen Mendis, Tiroshan Madushanka
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Customer churn prediction is one of the most useful areas of study in customer analytics. Due to the enormous amount of data available for such predictions, machine learning and data mining have been heavily used in this domain. There exist many machine learning algorithms directly applicable for the problem of customer churn prediction, and here, we attempt to experiment on a novel approach by using a cognitive learning based technique in an attempt to improve the results obtained by using a combination of supervised learning methods, with cognitive unsupervised learning methods.
Keywords: Growing Self Organizing Maps, Kernel Methods, Churn Prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 25463336 Epileptic Seizure Prediction by Exploiting Signal Transitions Phenomena
Authors: Mohammad Zavid Parvez, Manoranjan Paul
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A seizure prediction method is proposed by extracting global features using phase correlation between adjacent epochs for detecting relative changes and local features using fluctuation/ deviation within an epoch for determining fine changes of different EEG signals. A classifier and a regularization technique are applied for the reduction of false alarms and improvement of the overall prediction accuracy. The experiments show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods and provides high prediction accuracy (i.e., 97.70%) with low false alarm using EEG signals in different brain locations from a benchmark data set.Keywords: Epilepsy, Seizure, Phase Correlation, Fluctuation, Deviation.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24593335 Numerical Simulation of the Turbulent Flow over a Three-Dimensional Flat Roof
Authors: M. Raciti Castelli, A. Castelli, E. Benini
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The flow field over a flat roof model building has been numerically investigated in order to determine threedimensional CFD guidelines for the calculation of the turbulent flow over a structure immersed in an atmospheric boundary layer. To this purpose, a complete validation campaign has been performed through a systematic comparison of numerical simulations with wind tunnel experimental data. Wind tunnel measurements and numerical predictions have been compared for five different vertical positions, respectively from the upstream leading edge to the downstream bottom edge of the analyzed model. Flow field characteristics in the neighborhood of the building model have been numerically investigated, allowing a quantification of the capabilities of the CFD code to predict the flow separation and the extension of the recirculation regions. The proposed calculations have allowed the development of a preliminary procedure to be used as guidance in selecting the appropriate grid configuration and corresponding turbulence model for the prediction of the flow field over a three-dimensional roof architecture dominated by flow separation.
Keywords: CFD, roof, building, wind
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17213334 3D Numerical Studies on External Aerodynamics of a Flying Car
Authors: Sasitharan Ambicapathy, J. Vignesh, P. Sivaraj, Godfrey Derek Sams, K. Sabarinath, V. R. Sanal Kumar
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The external flow simulation of a flying car at take off phase is a daunting task owing to the fact that the prediction of the transient unsteady flow features during its deployment phase is very complex. In this paper 3D numerical simulations of external flow of Ferrari F430 proposed flying car with different NACA 9618 rectangular wings have been carried. Additionally, the aerodynamics characteristics have been generated for optimizing its geometry for achieving the minimum take off velocity with better overall performance in both road and air. The three-dimensional standard k-omega turbulence model has been used for capturing the intrinsic flow physics during the take off phase. In the numerical study, a fully implicit finite volume scheme of the compressible, Reynolds-Averaged, Navier-Stokes equations is employed. Through the detailed parametric analytical studies we have conjectured that Ferrari F430 flying car facilitated with high wings having three different deployment histories during the take off phase is the best choice for accomplishing its better performance for the commercial applications.
Keywords: Aerodynamics of flying car, air taxi, negative lift. roadable airplane.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 38113333 Useful Lifetime Prediction of Chevron Rubber Spring for Railway Vehicle
Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park
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Useful lifetime evaluation of chevron rubber spring was very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of chevron rubber spring. In this study, we performed characteristic analysis and useful lifetime prediction of chevron rubber spring. Rubber material coefficient was obtained by curve fittings of uniaxial tension equibiaxial tension and pure shear test. Computer simulation was executed to predict and evaluate the load capacity and stiffness for chevron rubber spring. In order to useful lifetime prediction of rubber material, we carried out the compression set with heat aging test in an oven at the temperature ranging from 50°C to 100°C during a period 180 days. By using the Arrhenius plot, several useful lifetime prediction equations for rubber material was proposed.Keywords: Chevron rubber spring, material coefficient, finite element analysis, useful lifetime prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 28173332 Numerical Investigation of Hot Oil Velocity Effect on Force Heat Convection and Impact of Wind Velocity on Convection Heat Transfer in Receiver Tube of Parabolic Trough Collector System
Authors: O. Afshar
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A solar receiver is designed for operation under extremely uneven heat flux distribution, cyclic weather, and cloud transient cycle conditions, which can include large thermal stress and even receiver failure. In this study, the effect of different oil velocity on convection coefficient factor and impact of wind velocity on local Nusselt number by Finite Volume Method will be analyzed. This study is organized to give an overview of the numerical modeling using a MATLAB software, as an accurate, time efficient and economical way of analyzing the heat transfer trends over stationary receiver tube for different Reynolds number. The results reveal when oil velocity is below 0.33m/s, the value of convection coefficient is negligible at low temperature. The numerical graphs indicate that when oil velocity increases up to 1.2 m/s, heat convection coefficient increases significantly. In fact, a reduction in oil velocity causes a reduction in heat conduction through the glass envelope. In addition, the different local Nusselt number is reduced when the wind blows toward the concave side of the collector and it has a significant effect on heat losses reduction through the glass envelope.
Keywords: Receiver tube, heat convection, heat conduction, Nusselt number.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18883331 Using Probe Person Data for Travel Mode Detection
Authors: Muhammad Awais Shafique, Eiji Hato, Hideki Yaginuma
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Recently GPS data is used in a lot of studies to automatically reconstruct travel patterns for trip survey. The aim is to minimize the use of questionnaire surveys and travel diaries so as to reduce their negative effects. In this paper data acquired from GPS and accelerometer embedded in smart phones is utilized to predict the mode of transportation used by the phone carrier. For prediction, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) are employed. Moreover a unique method to improve the prediction results from these algorithms is also proposed. Results suggest that the prediction accuracy of AdaBoost after improvement is relatively better than the rest.
Keywords: Accelerometer, AdaBoost, GPS, Mode Prediction, Support vector Machine.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 24423330 Reasons for Non-Applicability of Software Entropy Metrics for Bug Prediction in Android
Authors: Arvinder Kaur, Deepti Chopra
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Software Entropy Metrics for bug prediction have been validated on various software systems by different researchers. In our previous research, we have validated that Software Entropy Metrics calculated for Mozilla subsystem’s predict the future bugs reasonably well. In this study, the Software Entropy metrics are calculated for a subsystem of Android and it is noticed that these metrics are not suitable for bug prediction. The results are compared with a subsystem of Mozilla and a comparison is made between the two software systems to determine the reasons why Software Entropy metrics are not applicable for Android.
Keywords: Android, bug prediction, mining software repositories, Software Entropy.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10783329 A First Course in Numerical Methods with “Mathematica“
Authors: Andrei A. Kolyshkin
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In the present paper some recommendations for the use of software package “Mathematica" in a basic numerical analysis course are presented. The methods which are covered in the course include solution of systems of linear equations, nonlinear equations and systems of nonlinear equations, numerical integration, interpolation and solution of ordinary differential equations. A set of individual assignments developed for the course covering all the topics is discussed in detail.Keywords: Numerical methods, "Mathematica", e-learning.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 36533328 Optimum Neural Network Architecture for Precipitation Prediction of Myanmar
Authors: Khaing Win Mar, Thinn Thu Naing
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Nowadays, precipitation prediction is required for proper planning and management of water resources. Prediction with neural network models has received increasing interest in various research and application domains. However, it is difficult to determine the best neural network architecture for prediction since it is not immediately obvious how many input or hidden nodes are used in the model. In this paper, neural network model is used as a forecasting tool. The major aim is to evaluate a suitable neural network model for monthly precipitation mapping of Myanmar. Using 3-layerd neural network models, 100 cases are tested by changing the number of input and hidden nodes from 1 to 10 nodes, respectively, and only one outputnode used. The optimum model with the suitable number of nodes is selected in accordance with the minimum forecast error. In measuring network performance using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), experimental results significantly show that 3 inputs-10 hiddens-1 output architecture model gives the best prediction result for monthly precipitation in Myanmar.
Keywords: Precipitation prediction, monthly precipitation, neural network models, Myanmar.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 17343327 Semi-Analytic Method in Fast Evaluation of Thermal Management Solution in Energy Storage System
Authors: Ya Lv
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This article presents the application of the semi-analytic method (SAM) in the thermal management solution (TMS) of the energy storage system (ESS). The TMS studied in this work is fluid cooling. In fluid cooling, both effective heat conduction and heat convection are indispensable due to the heat transfer from solid to fluid. Correspondingly, an efficient TMS requires a design investigation of the following parameters: fluid inlet temperature, ESS initial temperature, fluid flow rate, working c rate, continuous working time, and materials properties. Their variation induces a change of thermal performance in the battery module, which is usually evaluated by numerical simulation. Compared to complicated computation resources and long computation time in simulation, the SAM is developed in this article to predict the thermal influence within a few seconds. In SAM, a fast prediction model is reckoned by combining numerical simulation with theoretical/empirical equations. The SAM can explore the thermal effect of boundary parameters in both steady-state and transient heat transfer scenarios within a short time. Therefore, the SAM developed in this work can simplify the design cycle of TMS and inspire more possibilities in TMS design.Keywords: Semi-analytic method, fast prediction model, thermal influence of boundary parameters, energy storage system.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 6403326 Protein Residue Contact Prediction using Support Vector Machine
Authors: Chan Weng Howe, Mohd Saberi Mohamad
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Protein residue contact map is a compact representation of secondary structure of protein. Due to the information hold in the contact map, attentions from researchers in related field were drawn and plenty of works have been done throughout the past decade. Artificial intelligence approaches have been widely adapted in related works such as neural networks, genetic programming, and Hidden Markov model as well as support vector machine. However, the performance of the prediction was not generalized which probably depends on the data used to train and generate the prediction model. This situation shown the importance of the features or information used in affecting the prediction performance. In this research, support vector machine was used to predict protein residue contact map on different combination of features in order to show and analyze the effectiveness of the features.Keywords: contact map, protein residue contact, support vector machine, protein structure prediction
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 18823325 Prediction of the Rear Fuselage Temperature with Radiation Shield
Authors: Kyung Joo Yi, Seung Wook Baek, Sung Nam Lee, Man Young Kim, Won Cheol Kim, Gun Yung Go
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In order to enhance the aircraft survivability, the infrared signatures emitted by hot engine parts should be determined exactly. For its reduction it is necessary for the rear fuselage temperature to be decreased. In this study, numerical modeling of flow fields and heat transfer characteristics of an aircraft nozzle is performed and its temperature distribution along each component wall is predicted. The radiation shield is expected to reduce the skin temperature of rear fuselage. The effect of material characteristic of radiation shield on the heat transfer is also investigated. Through this numerical analysis, design parameters related to the susceptibility of aircraft are examined.Keywords: Infrared signature, Nozzle flow, Radiation shield, Rear fuselage temperature, Susceptibility
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 21183324 Equity Risk Premiums and Risk Free Rates in Modelling and Prediction of Financial Markets
Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani
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This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.Keywords: Prediction of financial markets, Adaptive methods, MSE, LSE.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 10113323 Comparison of Different k-NN Models for Speed Prediction in an Urban Traffic Network
Authors: Seyoung Kim, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu
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A database that records average traffic speeds measured at five-minute intervals for all the links in the traffic network of a metropolitan city. While learning from this data the models that can predict future traffic speed would be beneficial for the applications such as the car navigation system, building predictive models for every link becomes a nontrivial job if the number of links in a given network is huge. An advantage of adopting k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) as predictive models is that it does not require any explicit model building. Instead, k-NN takes a long time to make a prediction because it needs to search for the k-nearest neighbors in the database at prediction time. In this paper, we investigate how much we can speed up k-NN in making traffic speed predictions by reducing the amount of data to be searched for without a significant sacrifice of prediction accuracy. The rationale behind this is that we had a better look at only the recent data because the traffic patterns not only repeat daily or weekly but also change over time. In our experiments, we build several different k-NN models employing different sets of features which are the current and past traffic speeds of the target link and the neighbor links in its up/down-stream. The performances of these models are compared by measuring the average prediction accuracy and the average time taken to make a prediction using various amounts of data.Keywords: Big data, k-NN, machine learning, traffic speed prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 13673322 Prediction on Housing Price Based on Deep Learning
Authors: Li Yu, Chenlu Jiao, Hongrun Xin, Yan Wang, Kaiyang Wang
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In order to study the impact of various factors on the housing price, we propose to build different prediction models based on deep learning to determine the existing data of the real estate in order to more accurately predict the housing price or its changing trend in the future. Considering that the factors which affect the housing price vary widely, the proposed prediction models include two categories. The first one is based on multiple characteristic factors of the real estate. We built Convolution Neural Network (CNN) prediction model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network prediction model based on deep learning, and logical regression model was implemented to make a comparison between these three models. Another prediction model is time series model. Based on deep learning, we proposed an LSTM-1 model purely regard to time series, then implementing and comparing the LSTM model and the Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. In this paper, comprehensive study of the second-hand housing price in Beijing has been conducted from three aspects: crawling and analyzing, housing price predicting, and the result comparing. Ultimately the best model program was produced, which is of great significance to evaluation and prediction of the housing price in the real estate industry.
Keywords: Deep learning, convolutional neural network, LSTM, housing prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 49723321 Crude Oil Price Prediction Using LSTM Networks
Authors: Varun Gupta, Ankit Pandey
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Crude oil market is an immensely complex and dynamic environment and thus the task of predicting changes in such an environment becomes challenging with regards to its accuracy. A number of approaches have been adopted to take on that challenge and machine learning has been at the core in many of them. There are plenty of examples of algorithms based on machine learning yielding satisfactory results for such type of prediction. In this paper, we have tried to predict crude oil prices using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based recurrent neural networks. We have tried to experiment with different types of models using different epochs, lookbacks and other tuning methods. The results obtained are promising and presented a reasonably accurate prediction for the price of crude oil in near future.
Keywords: Crude oil price prediction, deep learning, LSTM, recurrent neural networks.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 36913320 A New Hybrid Model with Passive Congregation for Stock Market Indices Prediction
Authors: Tarek Aboueldahab
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In this paper, we propose a new hybrid learning model for stock market indices prediction by adding a passive congregation term to the standard hybrid model comprising Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) with Genetic Algorithm (GA) operators in training Neural Networks (NN). This new passive congregation term is based on the cooperation between different particles in determining new positions rather than depending on the particles selfish thinking without considering other particles positions, thus it enables PSO to perform both the local and global search instead of only doing the local search. Experiment study carried out on the most famous European stock market indices in both long term and short term prediction shows significantly the influence of the passive congregation term in improving the prediction accuracy compared to standard hybrid model.
Keywords: Global Search, Hybrid Model, Passive Congregation, Stock Market Prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 14943319 Protein Secondary Structure Prediction Using Parallelized Rule Induction from Coverings
Authors: Leong Lee, Cyriac Kandoth, Jennifer L. Leopold, Ronald L. Frank
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Protein 3D structure prediction has always been an important research area in bioinformatics. In particular, the prediction of secondary structure has been a well-studied research topic. Despite the recent breakthrough of combining multiple sequence alignment information and artificial intelligence algorithms to predict protein secondary structure, the Q3 accuracy of various computational prediction algorithms rarely has exceeded 75%. In a previous paper [1], this research team presented a rule-based method called RT-RICO (Relaxed Threshold Rule Induction from Coverings) to predict protein secondary structure. The average Q3 accuracy on the sample datasets using RT-RICO was 80.3%, an improvement over comparable computational methods. Although this demonstrated that RT-RICO might be a promising approach for predicting secondary structure, the algorithm-s computational complexity and program running time limited its use. Herein a parallelized implementation of a slightly modified RT-RICO approach is presented. This new version of the algorithm facilitated the testing of a much larger dataset of 396 protein domains [2]. Parallelized RTRICO achieved a Q3 score of 74.6%, which is higher than the consensus prediction accuracy of 72.9% that was achieved for the same test dataset by a combination of four secondary structure prediction methods [2].Keywords: data mining, protein secondary structure prediction, parallelization.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 15843318 Using Hybrid System of Ground Heat Exchanger and Evaporative Cooler in Arid Weather Condition
Authors: Vahid Khalajzadeh, Ghassem Heidarinejad
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In this paper, the feasibility study of using a hybrid system of ground heat exchangers (GHE) and direct evaporative cooling system in arid weather condition has been performed. The model is applied for Yazd and Kerman, two cities with arid weather condition in Iran. The system composed of three sections: Ground- Coupled-Circuit (GCC), Direct Evaporative Cooler (DEC) and Cooling Coil Unite (CCU). The GCC provides the necessary precooling for DEC. The GCC includes four vertical GHE which are designed in series configuration. Simulation results show that hybridization of GCC and DEC could provide comfort condition whereas DEC alone did not. Based on the results the cooling effectiveness of a hybrid system is more than unity. Thus, this novel hybrid system could decrease the air temperature below the ambient wet-bulb temperature. This environmentally clean and energy efficient system can be considered as an alternative to the mechanical vapor compression systems.Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Cooling CoilUnit (CCU), Direct Evaporative Cooling (DEC), Ground CoupledCircuit (GCC)
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 22603317 Urban Growth Prediction in Athens, Greece, Using Artificial Neural Networks
Authors: D. Triantakonstantis, D. Stathakis
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Urban areas have been expanded throughout the globe. Monitoring and modelling urban growth have become a necessity for a sustainable urban planning and decision making. Urban prediction models are important tools for analyzing the causes and consequences of urban land use dynamics. The objective of this research paper is to analyze and model the urban change, which has been occurred from 1990 to 2000 using CORINE land cover maps. The model was developed using drivers of urban changes (such as road distance, slope, etc.) under an Artificial Neural Network modelling approach. Validation was achieved using a prediction map for 2006 which was compared with a real map of Urban Atlas of 2006. The accuracy produced a Kappa index of agreement of 0,639 and a value of Cramer's V of 0,648. These encouraging results indicate the importance of the developed urban growth prediction model which using a set of available common biophysical drivers could serve as a management tool for the assessment of urban change.
Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, CORINE, Urban Atlas, Urban Growth Prediction.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 34393316 Evaluation of Short-Term Load Forecasting Techniques Applied for Smart Micro Grids
Authors: Xiaolei Hu, Enrico Ferrera, Riccardo Tomasi, Claudio Pastrone
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Load Forecasting plays a key role in making today's and future's Smart Energy Grids sustainable and reliable. Accurate power consumption prediction allows utilities to organize in advance their resources or to execute Demand Response strategies more effectively, which enables several features such as higher sustainability, better quality of service, and affordable electricity tariffs. It is easy yet effective to apply Load Forecasting at larger geographic scale, i.e. Smart Micro Grids, wherein the lower available grid flexibility makes accurate prediction more critical in Demand Response applications. This paper analyses the application of short-term load forecasting in a concrete scenario, proposed within the EU-funded GreenCom project, which collect load data from single loads and households belonging to a Smart Micro Grid. Three short-term load forecasting techniques, i.e. linear regression, artificial neural networks, and radial basis function network, are considered, compared, and evaluated through absolute forecast errors and training time. The influence of weather conditions in Load Forecasting is also evaluated. A new definition of Gain is introduced in this paper, which innovatively serves as an indicator of short-term prediction capabilities of time spam consistency. Two models, 24- and 1-hour-ahead forecasting, are built to comprehensively compare these three techniques.
Keywords: Short-term load forecasting, smart micro grid, linear regression, artificial neural networks, radial basis function network, Gain.
Procedia APA BibTeX Chicago EndNote Harvard JSON MLA RIS XML ISO 690 PDF Downloads 2590