Search results for: optimal stress location

Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

Abstract:

This paper discusses the effects of using progressive Type-I right censoring on the design of the Simple Step Accelerated Life testing using Bayesian approach for Weibull life products under the assumption of cumulative exposure model. The optimization criterion used in this paper is to minimize the expected pre-posterior variance of the P^th percentile time of failures. The model variables are the stress changing time and the stress value for the first step. A comparison between the conventional and the progressive Type-I right censoring is provided. The results have shown that the progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of testing on the expense of the test precision when the sample size is small. Moreover, the results have shown that using strong priors or large sample size reduces the sensitivity of the test precision to the censoring proportion. Hence, the progressive Type-I right censoring is recommended in these cases as progressive Type-I right censoring reduces the cost of the test and doesn't affect the precision of the test a lot. Moreover, the results have shown that using direct or indirect priors affects the precision of the test.

Keywords: Reliability, Accelerated life testing, Cumulative exposure model, Bayesian estimation, Progressive Type-I censoring, Weibull distribution.

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Farzami Pour

Abstract:

Determination of genetic variation is useful for plant breeding and hence production of more efficient plant species under different conditions, like drought stress. In this study a sample of 28 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) of wheat developed from the cross of Norstar and Zagross varieties, together with their parents, were evaluated for two years (2010-2012) under normal and water stress conditions using split plot design with three replications. Main plots included two irrigation treatments of 70 and 140 mm evaporation from Class A pan and sub-plots consisted of 30 genotypes. The effect of genotypes and interaction of genotypes with years and water regimes were significant for all characters. Significant genotypic effect implies the existence of genetic variation among the lines under study. Heritability estimates were high for 1000 grain weight (0.87). Biomass and grain yield showed the lowest heritability values (0.42 and 0.50, respectively). Highest genotypic and phenotypic coefficients of variation (GCV and PCV) belonged to harvest index. Moderate genetic advance for most of the traits suggested the feasibility of selection among the RILs under investigation. Some RILs were higher yielding than either parent at both environments.

Keywords: Wheat, genetic gain, heritability, recombinant inbred lines.

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Authors: Kashif Bilal, Tassawar Iqbal, Asad Ali Safi, Nadeem Daudpota

Abstract:

This paper deals with dynamic load balancing using PVM. In distributed environment Load Balancing and Heterogeneity are very critical issues and needed to drill down in order to achieve the optimal results and efficiency. Various techniques are being used in order to distribute the load dynamically among different nodes and to deal with heterogeneity. These techniques are using different approaches where Process Migration is basic concept with different optimal flavors. But Process Migration is not an easy job, it impose lot of burden and processing effort in order to track each process in nodes. We will propose a dynamic load balancing technique in which application will intelligently balance the load among different nodes, resulting in efficient use of system and have no overheads of process migration. It would also provide a simple solution to problem of load balancing in heterogeneous environment.

Keywords: PVM, load balancing, task allocation, intelligent application.

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Authors: M. Amara, M. Tahar Abbes, A. Dokkiche, M. Benbrike

Abstract:

Shear stresses generate frictional forces thus lead to the reduction of engine performance due to the power losses. This friction can also cause damage to the piston material. Thus, the choice of an optimal material for the piston is necessary to improve the elastohydrodynamical contacts of the piston. In this study, to achieve this objective, an elastohydrodynamical lubrication model that satisfies the best tribological behavior of the piston with the optimum choice of material is developed. Several aluminum alloys composed of different components are studied in this simulation. An application is made on the piston 60 x 120 mm Diesel engine type F8L413 currently mounted on Deutz trucks TB230 by using different aluminum alloys where alloys based on aluminum-silicon have better tribological performance.

Keywords: EHD lubricated contacts, friction, properties of materials, tribological performance.

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Authors: Cem Karacal, Sohyung Cho, William Yu

Abstract:

In metal cutting industries, mathematical/statistical models are typically used to predict tool replacement time. These off-line methods usually result in less than optimum replacement time thereby either wasting resources or causing quality problems. The few online real-time methods proposed use indirect measurement techniques and are prone to similar errors. Our idea is based on identifying the optimal replacement time using an electronic nose to detect the airborne compounds released when the tool wear reaches to a chemical substrate doped into tool material during the fabrication. The study investigates the feasibility of the idea, possible doping materials and methods along with data stream mining techniques for detection and monitoring different phases of tool wear.

Keywords: Tool condition monitoring, cutting tool replacement, data stream mining, e-Nose.

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Authors: S. Gherbi, F. Bouchareb

Abstract:

This paper deals with the novel intelligent bio-inspired control strategies, it presents a novel approach based on an optimal fuzzy immune PID parameters tuning, it is a combination of a PID controller, inspired by the human immune mechanism with fuzzy logic. Such controller offers more possibilities to deal with the delayed systems control difficulties due to the delay term. Indeed, we use an optimization approach to tune the four parameters of the controller in addition to the fuzzy function; the obtained controller is implemented in a modified Smith predictor structure, which is well known that it is the most efficient to the control of delayed systems. The application of the presented approach to control a three tank delay system shows good performances and proves the efficiency of the method.

Keywords: Delayed systems, Fuzzy Immune PID, Optimization, Smith predictor.

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Authors: Kyoung Hoon Kim, Giman Kim

Abstract:

The cycles of the steam-injection gas-turbine systems are studied. The analyses of the parametric effects and the optimal operating conditions for the steam-injection gas-turbine (STIG) system and the regenerative steam-injection gas-turbine (RSTIG) system are investigated to ensure the maximum performance. Using the analytic model, the performance parameters of the system such as thermal efficiency, fuel consumption and specific power, and also the optimal operating conditions are evaluated in terms of pressure ratio, steam injection ratio, ambient temperature and turbine inlet temperature (TIT). It is shown that the computational results are presented to have a notable enhancement of thermal efficiency and specific power.

Keywords: gas turbine, RSTIG, steam injection, STIG, thermal efficiency.

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Authors: K. Y. Tseng, C. Y. Wu

Abstract:

This paper employs a heuristic algorithm to solve engineering problems including truss structure optimization and optimal chiller loading (OCL) problems. Two different type algorithms, real-valued differential evolution (DE) and modified binary differential evolution (MBDE), are successfully integrated and then can obtain better performance in solving engineering problems. In order to demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm, this study adopts each one testing case of truss structure optimization and OCL problems to compare the results of other heuristic optimization methods. The result indicates that the proposed algorithm can obtain similar or better solution in comparing with previous studies.

Keywords: Differential evolution, truss structure optimization, optimal chiller loading, modified binary differential evolution.

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Authors: Jin-O Kim, Hyun-Il Son

Abstract:

As the electrical power industry is restructured, the electrical power exchange is becoming extended. One of the key information used to determine how much power can be transferred through the network is known as available transfer capability (ATC). To calculate ATC, traditional deterministic approach is based on the severest case, but the approach has the complexity of procedure. Therefore, novel approach for ATC calculation is proposed using cost-optimization method in this paper, and is compared with well-being method and risk-benefit method. This paper proposes the optimal transfer capability of HVDC system between mainland and a separated island in Korea through these three methods. These methods will consider production cost, wheeling charge through HVDC system and outage cost with one depth (N-1 contingency)

Keywords: ATC, power system interconnection, well-being method, cost-optimization method, risk-benefit analysis, outage cost.

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

Abstract:

A model is presented to find the optimal design of the mixed renewable warranty policy for non-repairable Weibull life products. The optimal design considers the conflict of interests between the customer and the manufacturer: the customer interests are longer full rebate coverage period and longer total warranty coverage period, the manufacturer interests are lower warranty cost and lower risk. The design factors are full rebate and total warranty coverage periods. Results showed that mixed policy is better than full rebate policy in terms of risk and total warranty coverage period in all of the three bathtub regions. In addition, results showed that linear policy is better than mixed policy in infant mortality and constant failure regions while the mixed policy is better than linear policy in ageing region of the model. Furthermore, the results showed that using burn-in period for infant mortality products reduces warranty cost and risk.

Keywords: Reliability, Mixed warranty policy, Optimization, Weibull Distribution.

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Authors: Wu Qinglong, Zhou Qicai, Xiong Xiaolei, Zhang Richeng

Abstract:

In order to achieve the layout and size optimization of the web members of tower crane boom, a truss topology and cross section size optimization method based on continuum is proposed considering three typical working conditions. Firstly, the optimization model is established by replacing web members with web plates. And the web plates are divided into several sub-domains so that periodic soft kill option (SKO) method can be carried out for topology optimization of the slender boom. After getting the optimized topology of web plates, the optimized layout of web members is formed through extracting the principal stress distribution. Finally, using the web member radius as design variable, the boom compliance as objective and the material volume of the boom as constraint, the cross section size optimization mathematical model is established. The size optimization criterion is deduced from the mathematical model by Lagrange multiplier method and Kuhn-Tucker condition. By comparing the original boom with the optimal boom, it is identified that this optimization method can effectively lighten the boom and improve its performance.

Keywords: Tower crane boom, topology optimization, size optimization, periodic, soft kill option, optimization criterion.

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Authors: Axel Panning, Robert Niese, Ayoub Al-Hamadi, Bernd Michaelis

Abstract:

The segmentation of mouth and lips is a fundamental problem in facial image analyisis. In this paper we propose a method for lip segmentation based on rg-color histogram. Statistical analysis shows, using the rg-color-space is optimal for this purpose of a pure color based segmentation. Initially a rough adaptive threshold selects a histogram region, that assures that all pixels in that region are skin pixels. Based on that pixels we build a gaussian model which represents the skin pixels distribution and is utilized to obtain a refined, optimal threshold. We are not incorporating shape or edge information. In experiments we show the performance of our lip pixel segmentation method compared to the ground truth of our dataset and a conventional watershed algorithm.

Keywords: Feature extraction, Segmentation, Image processing, Application

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Authors: Muhammad F. Yaqub, Iqbal Gondal, Joarder Kamruzzaman

Abstract:

Occurrence of a multiple-points fault in machine operations could result in exhibiting complex fault signatures, which could result in lowering fault diagnosis accuracy. In this study, a multiple-points defect model (MPDM) is proposed which can simulate fault signature-s dynamics for n-points bearing faults. Furthermore, this study identifies that in case of multiple-points fault in the rotary machine, the location of the dominant component of defect frequency shifts depending upon the relative location of the fault points which could mislead the fault diagnostic model to inaccurate detections. Analytical and experimental results are presented to characterize and validate the variation in the dominant component of defect frequency. Based on envelop detection analysis, a modification is recommended in the existing fault diagnostic models to consider the multiples of defect frequency rather than only considering the frequency spectrum at the defect frequency in order to incorporate the impact of multiple points fault.

Keywords: Envelop detection, machine defect frequency, multiple faults, machine health monitoring.

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Authors: Dhairya Partap Sing, Vikram Singh, Sudhir Kumar

Abstract:

This investigation proposes Friction stir welding technique to solve the fusion welding problems. Objectives of this investigation are fabrication of AA7075-10%wt. Silicon carbide (SiC) aluminum metal matrix composite and optimization of optimal process parameters of friction stir welded AA7075-10%wt. SiC Composites. Composites were prepared by the mechanical stir casting process. Experiments were performed with four process parameters such as tool rotational speed, weld speed, axial force and tool geometry considering three levels of each. The quality characteristics considered is joint efficiency (JE). The welding experiments were conducted using L₂₇ orthogonal array. An orthogonal array and design of experiments were used to give best possible welding parameters that give optimal JE. The fabricated welded joints using rotational speed of 1500 rpm, welding speed (1.3 mm/sec), axial force (7 k/n) of and tool geometry (square) give best possible results. Experimental result reveals that the tool rotation speed, welding speed and axial force are the significant process parameters affecting the welding performance. The predicted optimal value of percentage JE is 95.621. The confirmation tests also have been done for verifying the results.

Keywords: Metal matrix composite, axial force, joint efficiency, rotational speed, traverse speed, tool geometry.

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Authors: Mhand Hifi, Hedi Mhalla

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the knapsack sharing problem, a variant of the well-known NP-Hard single knapsack problem. We investigate the use of a tree search for optimally solving the problem. The used method combines two complementary phases: a reduction interval search phase and a branch and bound procedure one. First, the reduction phase applies a polynomial reduction strategy; that is used for decomposing the problem into a series of knapsack problems. Second, the tree search procedure is applied in order to attain a set of optimal capacities characterizing the knapsack problems. Finally, the performance of the proposed optimal algorithm is evaluated on a set of instances of the literature and its runtime is compared to the best exact algorithm of the literature.

Keywords: Branch and bound, combinatorial optimization, knap¬sack, knapsack sharing, heuristics, interval reduction.

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Authors: H. Bevrani, A. G. Tikdari, T. Hiyama

Abstract:

Optimal load shedding (LS) design as an emergency plan is one of the main control challenges posed by emerging new uncertainties and numerous distributed generators including renewable energy sources in a modern power system. This paper presents an overview of the key issues and new challenges on optimal LS synthesis concerning the integration of wind turbine units into the power systems. Following a brief survey on the existing LS methods, the impact of power fluctuation produced by wind powers on system frequency and voltage performance is presented. The most LS schemas proposed so far used voltage or frequency parameter via under-frequency or under-voltage LS schemes. Here, the necessity of considering both voltage and frequency indices to achieve a more effective and comprehensive LS strategy is emphasized. Then it is clarified that this problem will be more dominated in the presence of wind turbines.

Keywords: Load shedding, emergency control, voltage, frequency, wind turbine.

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Authors: Ömer Faruk Baykoç, Ümit Sami Sakalli

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a fuzzy aggregate production planning (APP) model for blending problem in a brass factory which is the problem of computing optimal amounts of raw materials for the total production of several types of brass in a period. The model has deterministic and imprecise parameters which follows triangular possibility distributions. The brass casting APP model can not always be solved by using common approaches used in the literature. Therefore a mathematical model is presented for solving this problem. In the proposed model, the Lai and Hwang-s fuzzy ranking concept is relaxed by using one constraint instead of three constraints. An application of the brass casting APP model in a brass factory shows that the proposed model successfully solves the multi-blend problem in casting process and determines the optimal raw material purchasing policies.

Keywords: Aggregate production planning, Blending, brasscasting, possibilistic programming.

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Authors: Chong Wang, Kellem M. Soares, Luis E. Kosteski

Abstract:

The problem of toughening in brittle materials reinforced by fibers is complex, involving all of the mechanical properties of fibers, matrix and the fiber/matrix interface, as well as the geometry of the fiber. Development of new numerical methods appropriate to toughening simulation and analysis is necessary. In this work, we have performed simulations and analysis of toughening in brittle matrix reinforced by randomly distributed fibers by means of the discrete elements method. At first, we put forward a mechanical model of toughening contributed by random fibers. Then with a numerical program, we investigated the stress, damage and bridging force in the composite material when a crack appeared in the brittle matrix. From the results obtained, we conclude that: (i) fibers of high strength and low elasticity modulus are beneficial to toughening; (ii) fibers of relatively high elastic modulus compared to the matrix may result in substantial matrix damage due to spalling effect; (iii) employment of high-strength synthetic fibers is a good option for toughening. We expect that the combination of the discrete element method (DEM) with the finite element method (FEM) can increase the versatility and efficiency of the software developed. The present work can guide the design of ceramic composites of high performance through the optimization of the parameters.

Keywords: Bridging stress, discrete element method, fiber reinforced composites, toughening.

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Authors: F. Fissou Amigue, S. Ndjakomo Essiane, S. Pérabi Ngoffé, G. Abessolo Ondoa, G. Mengata Mengounou, T. P. Nna Nna

Abstract:

This document proposes a method for determining the optimal point of integration of distributed generation (DG) in distribution grid. Slime mould optimization is applied to determine best node in case of one and two injection point. Problem has been modeled as an optimization problem where the objective is to minimize joule loses and main constraint is to regulate voltage in each point. The proposed method has been implemented in MATLAB and applied in IEEE network 33 and 69 nodes. Comparing results obtained with other algorithms showed that slime mould optimization algorithms (SMOA) have the best reduction of power losses and good amelioration of voltage profile.

Keywords: Optimization, distributed generation, integration, slime mould algorithm.

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Authors: Mehdi Nasri, Hossein Nezamabadi-pour, Malihe Maghfoori

Abstract:

This Paper presents a particle swarm optimization (PSO) method for determining the optimal proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller parameters, for speed control of a linear brushless DC motor. The proposed approach has superior features, including easy implementation, stable convergence characteristic and good computational efficiency. The brushless DC motor is modelled in Simulink and the PSO algorithm is implemented in MATLAB. Comparing with Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Linear quadratic regulator (LQR) method, the proposed method was more efficient in improving the step response characteristics such as, reducing the steady-states error; rise time, settling time and maximum overshoot in speed control of a linear brushless DC motor.

Keywords: Brushless DC motor, Particle swarm optimization, PID Controller, Optimal control.

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Authors: Shigeyuki Haruyama, Zefry Darmawan, Ken Kaminishi

Abstract:

In the square tube subjected to the bending load, the rigidity of the entire square tube is reduced when a collapse occurs due to local stress concentration. Therefore, in this research, the influence of bending load on the square tube with attached energy absorbing part was examined and reported. The analysis was conducted by using Finite Element Method (FEM) to produced bending deflection and buckling points. Energy absorption was compared from rigidity of attached part and square tube body. Buckling point was influenced by the rigidity of attached part and the thickness rate of square tube.

Keywords: Square tube, bending stress, energy absorption, finite element analysis, rigidity.

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Authors: Fuad M. Alkoot

Abstract:

DNA data have been used in forensics for decades. However, current research looks at using the DNA as a biometric identity verification modality. The goal is to improve the speed of identification. We aim at using gene data that was initially used for autism detection to find if and how accurate is this data for identification applications. Mainly our goal is to find if our data preprocessing technique yields data useful as a biometric identification tool. We experiment with using the nearest neighbor classifier to identify subjects. Results show that optimal classification rate is achieved when the test set is corrupted by normally distributed noise with zero mean and standard deviation of 1. The classification rate is close to optimal at higher noise standard deviation reaching 3. This shows that the data can be used for identity verification with high accuracy using a simple classifier such as the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN). 

Keywords: Biometrics, identity verification, genetic data, k-nearest neighbor.

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Authors: Muhammad Naeem, Syed Ismail Shah, Habibullah Jamal

Abstract:

In this paper, a simple heuristic genetic algorithm is used for Multistage Multiuser detection in fast fading environments. Multipath channels, multiple access interference (MAI) and near far effect cause the performance of the conventional detector to degrade. Heuristic Genetic algorithms, a rapidly growing area of artificial intelligence, uses evolutionary programming for initial search, which not only helps to converge the solution towards near optimal performance efficiently but also at a very low complexity as compared with optimal detector. This holds true for Additive White Gaussian Noise (AWGN) and multipath fading channels. Experimental results are presented to show the superior performance of the proposed techque over the existing methods.

Keywords: Genetic Algorithm (GA), Multiple AccessInterference (MAI), Multistage Detectors (MSD), SuccessiveInterference Cancellation.

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Authors: Kai-Ying A. Chan, Leon A.G. Oerlemans, Marthinus W. Pretorius

Abstract:

Science parks are often established to drive regional economic growth, especially in countries with emerging economies. However, mixed findings regarding the performances of science park firms are found in the literature. This study tries to explain these mixed findings by taking a relational approach and exploring (un)intended knowledge transfers between new technology-based firms (NTBFs) in the emerging South African economy. Moreover, the innovation outcomes of these NTBFs are examined by using a multi-dimensional construct. Results show that science park location plays a significant role in explaining innovative sales, but is insignificant when a different indicator of innovation outcomes is used. Furthermore, only for innovations that are new to the firms, both science park location and intended knowledge transfer via informal business relationships have a positive impact; whereas social relationships have a negative impact.

Keywords: knowledge flows, innovative performances, science parks, new technology-based firms

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Authors: Alexandros Leontitsis, Archana P. Sangole

Abstract:

This article presents a short discussion on optimum neighborhood size selection in a spherical selforganizing feature map (SOFM). A majority of the literature on the SOFMs have addressed the issue of selecting optimal learning parameters in the case of Cartesian topology SOFMs. However, the use of a Spherical SOFM suggested that the learning aspects of Cartesian topology SOFM are not directly translated. This article presents an approach on how to estimate the neighborhood size of a spherical SOFM based on the data. It adopts the L-curve criterion, previously suggested for choosing the regularization parameter on problems of linear equations where their right-hand-side is contaminated with noise. Simulation results are presented on two artificial 4D data sets of the coupled Hénon-Ikeda map.

Keywords: Parameter estimation, self-organizing feature maps, spherical topology.

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Authors: Esmaeil Poursaeidi, Mostafa Kamalzadeh Yazdi, Mohammadreza Mohammadi Arhani1

Abstract:

The most severe damage of the turbine rotor is its distortion. The rotor straightening process must lead, at the first stage, to removal of the stresses from the material by annealing and next, to straightening of the plastic distortion without leaving any stress by hot spotting. The straightening method does not produce stress accumulations and the heating technique, developed specifically for solid forged rotors and disks, enables to avoid local overheating and structural changes in the material. This process also does not leave stresses in the shaft material. An experimental study of hot spotting is carried out on a large turbine rotor and some of the most important effective parameters that must be considered on annealing and hot spotting processes are investigated in this paper.

Keywords: Annealing, Hot Spotting, Effective Parameter, Rotor

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar Parjapati, Ajai Jain

Abstract:

This paper presents optimization of makespan for ‘n’ jobs and ‘m’ machines flexible job shop scheduling problem with sequence dependent setup time using genetic algorithm (GA) approach. A restart scheme has also been applied to prevent the premature convergence. Two case studies are taken into consideration. Results are obtained by considering crossover probability (pc = 0.85) and mutation probability (pm = 0.15). Five simulation runs for each case study are taken and minimum value among them is taken as optimal makespan. Results indicate that optimal makespan can be achieved with more than one sequence of jobs in a production order.

Keywords: Flexible Job Shop, Genetic Algorithm, Makespan, Sequence Dependent Setup Times.

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Authors: Ashish Saini, A.K. Saxena

Abstract:

The genetic algorithm (GA) based solution techniques are found suitable for optimization because of their ability of simultaneous multidimensional search. Many GA-variants have been tried in the past to solve optimal power flow (OPF), one of the nonlinear problems of electric power system. The issues like convergence speed and accuracy of the optimal solution obtained after number of generations using GA techniques and handling system constraints in OPF are subjects of discussion. The results obtained for GA-Fuzzy OPF on various power systems have shown faster convergence and lesser generation costs as compared to other approaches. This paper presents an enhanced GA-Fuzzy OPF (EGAOPF) using penalty factors to handle line flow constraints and load bus voltage limits for both normal network and contingency case with congestion. In addition to crossover and mutation rate adaptation scheme that adapts crossover and mutation probabilities for each generation based on fitness values of previous generations, a block swap operator is also incorporated in proposed EGA-OPF. The line flow limits and load bus voltage magnitude limits are handled by incorporating line overflow and load voltage penalty factors respectively in each chromosome fitness function. The effects of different penalty factors settings are also analyzed under contingent state.

Keywords: Contingent operation state, Fuzzy rule base, Genetic Algorithms, Optimal Power Flow.

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Authors: Buntara Sthenly Gan

Abstract:

A novel and versatile numerical technique to solve a self-stress equilibrium state is adopted herein as a form-finding procedure for an irregular tensegrity structure. The numerical form-finding scheme of a tensegrity structure uses only the connectivity matrix and prototype tension coefficient vector as the initial guess solution. Any information on the symmetrical geometry or other predefined initial structural conditions is not necessary to get the solution in the form-finding process. An eight-node initial condition example is presented to demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of the proposed method in the form-finding of an irregular tensegrity structure. Based on the conception from the form-finding of an eight-node irregular tensegrity structure, a monumental object is designed by considering the real world situation such as self-weight, wind and earthquake loadings.

Keywords: Tensegrity, Form-finding, Design, Irregular, Self-stress, Force density method.

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Authors: Ebrahim Abbasi, Amir Abouec

Abstract:

In this research, the researchers have managed to design a model to investigate the current trend of stock price of the "IRAN KHODRO corporation" at Tehran Stock Exchange by utilizing an Adaptive Neuro - Fuzzy Inference system. For the Longterm Period, a Neuro-Fuzzy with two Triangular membership functions and four independent Variables including trade volume, Dividend Per Share (DPS), Price to Earning Ratio (P/E), and also closing Price and Stock Price fluctuation as an dependent variable are selected as an optimal model. For the short-term Period, a neureo – fuzzy model with two triangular membership functions for the first quarter of a year, two trapezoidal membership functions for the Second quarter of a year, two Gaussian combination membership functions for the third quarter of a year and two trapezoidal membership functions for the fourth quarter of a year were selected as an optimal model for the stock price forecasting. In addition, three independent variables including trade volume, price to earning ratio, closing Stock Price and a dependent variable of stock price fluctuation were selected as an optimal model. The findings of the research demonstrate that the trend of stock price could be forecasted with the lower level of error.

Keywords: Stock Price forecast, membership functions, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, trade volume, P/E, DPS.

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