Search results for: electron work function

Authors: Seung-Yeon Kim

Abstract:

The Ising ferromagnet, consisting of magnetic spins, is the simplest system showing phase transitions and critical phenomena at finite temperatures. The Ising ferromagnet has played a central role in our understanding of phase transitions and critical phenomena. Also, the Ising ferromagnet explains the gas-liquid phase transitions accurately. In particular, the Ising ferromagnet in a nonzero magnetic field has been one of the most intriguing and outstanding unsolved problems. We study analytically the partition function zeros in the complex magnetic-field plane and the Yang-Lee edge singularity of the infinite-range Ising ferromagnet in an external magnetic field. In addition, we compare the Yang-Lee edge singularity of the infinite-range Ising ferromagnet with that of the square-lattice Ising ferromagnet in an external magnetic field.

Keywords: Ising ferromagnet, Magnetic field, Partition function zeros, Yang-Lee edge singularity.

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Authors: Md. Shafiqul Islam, Abdullah Khan, Sharon Kao-Walter, Li Jian

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Shear testing is one of the most complex testing areas where available methods and specimen geometries are different from each other. Therefore, a modified shear test specimen (MSTS) combining the simple uniaxial test with a zone of interest (ZOI) is tested which gives almost the pure shear. In this study, material parameters of polypropylene (PP) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) are first measured by tensile tests with a dogbone shaped specimen. These parameters are then used as an input for the finite element analysis. Secondly, a specially designed specimen (MSTS) is used to perform the shear stress tests in a tensile testing machine to get the results in terms of forces and extension, crack initiation etc. Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) is also performed on the shear fracture surface to find material behavior. These experiments are then simulated by finite element method and compared with the experimental results in order to confirm the simulation model. Shear stress state is inspected to find the usability of the proposed shear specimen. Finally, a geometry correction factor can be established for these two materials in this specific loading and geometry with notch using Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM). By these results, strain energy of shear failure and stress intensity factor (SIF) of shear of these two polymers are discussed in the special application of the screw cap opening of the medical or food packages with a temper evidence safety solution.

Keywords: Shear test specimen, Stress intensity factor, Finite Element simulation, Scanning electron microscopy, Screw cap opening.

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Authors: C. Ramsauer, J. Karandikar, D. Leitner, T. Schmitz, F. Bleicher

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Machining instability, or chatter, can impose an important limitation to discrete part machining. In this work, a networked implementation of milling stability optimization with Bayesian learning is presented. The milling process was monitored with a wireless sensory tool holder instrumented with an accelerometer at the TU Wien, Vienna, Austria. The recorded data from a milling test cut were used to classify the cut as stable or unstable based on a frequency analysis. The test cut result was used in a Bayesian stability learning algorithm at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. The algorithm calculated the probability of stability as a function of axial depth of cut and spindle speed based on the test result and recommended parameters for the next test cut. The iterative process between two transatlantic locations was repeated until convergence to a stable optimal process parameter set was achieved.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, instrumented tool holder, machining stability, optimization strategy.

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Authors: Mahdi Yaghobi, Mohammad Haeri

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The current methods of predictive controllers are utilized for those processes in which the rate of output variations is not high. For such processes, therefore, stability can be achieved by implementing the constrained predictive controller or applying infinite prediction horizon. When the rate of the output growth is high (e.g. for unstable nonminimum phase process) the stabilization seems to be problematic. In order to avoid this, it is suggested to change the method in the way that: first, the prediction error growth should be decreased at the early stage of the prediction horizon, and second, the rate of the error variation should be penalized. The growth of the error is decreased through adjusting its weighting coefficients in the cost function. Reduction in the error variation is possible by adding the first order derivate of the error into the cost function. By studying different examples it is shown that using these two remedies together, the closed-loop stability of unstable nonminimum phase process can be achieved.

Keywords: GPC, Stability, Varying Weighting Coefficients.

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Authors: Rana Th. A. Al-Rubaye, Arthur A. Garforth

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This work details the generation of thin films of structured zeolite catalysts (ZSM–5 and Y) onto the surface of a metal substrate (FeCrAlloy) using in-situ hydrothermal synthesis. In addition, the zeolite Y is post-synthetically modified by acidified ammonium ion exchange to generate US-Y. Finally the catalytic activity of the structured ZSM-5 catalyst films (Si/Al = 11, thickness 146 0m) and structured US–Y catalyst film (Si/Al = 8, thickness 230m) were compared with the pelleted powder form of ZSM–5 and USY catalysts of similar Si/Al ratios. The structured catalyst films have been characterised using a range of techniques, including X-ray diffraction (XRD), Electron microscopy (SEM), Energy Dispersive X–ray analysis (EDX) and Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA). The transition from oxide-onalloy wires to hydrothermally synthesised uniformly zeolite coated surfaces was followed using SEM and XRD. In addition, the robustness of the prepared coating was confirmed by subjecting these to thermal cycling (ambient to 550oC). The cracking of n–heptane over the pellets and structured catalysts for both ZSM–5 and Y zeolite showed very similar product selectivities for similar amounts of catalyst with an apparent activation energy of around 60 kJ mol-1. This paper demonstrates that structured catalysts can be manufactured with excellent zeolite adherence and when suitably activated/modified give comparable cracking results to the pelleted powder forms. These structured catalysts will improve temperature distribution in highly exothermic and endothermic catalysed processes.

Keywords: FeCrAlloy, Structured catalyst, and Zeolite Y, Zeolite ZSM-5.

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Authors: P. Acosta-Santamaría, A. Ibatá-Soto, A. López-Vásquez

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Organic compounds in wastewaters coming from textile and pharmaceutical industry generated multiple harmful effects on the environment and the human health. One of them is the methyl orange (MeO), an azoic dye considered to be a recalcitrant compound. The heterogeneous photocatalysis emerges as an alternative for treating this type of hazardous compounds, through the generation of OH radicals using radiation and a semiconductor oxide. According to the author’s knowledge, catalysts such as TiO₂ doped with metals show high efficiency in degrading MeO; however, this presents economic limitations on industrial scale. Black sand can be considered as a naturally doped catalyst because in its structure is common to find compounds such as titanium, iron and aluminum oxides, also elements such as zircon, cadmium, manganese, etc. This study reports the photocatalytic activity of the mineral black sand used as semiconductor in the discoloration of MeO by oxidation and reduction photocatalytic techniques. For this, magnetic composites from the mineral were prepared (RM, M1, M2 and NM) and their activity were tested through MeO discoloration while TiO₂ was used as reference. For the fractions, chemical, morphological and structural characterizations were performed using Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive X-Ray (SEM-EDX), X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) and X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) analysis. M2 fraction showed higher MeO discoloration (93%) in oxidation conditions at pH 2 and it could be due to the presence of ferric oxides. However, the best result to reduction process was using M1 fraction (20%) at pH 2, which contains a higher titanium percentage. In the first process, hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) was used as electron donor agent. According to the results, black sand mineral can be used as natural semiconductor in photocatalytic process. It could be considered as a photocatalyst precursor in such processes, due to its low cost and easy access.

Keywords: Black sand mineral, methyl orange, oxidation, photocatalysis, reduction.

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Authors: Robin C. Ladwig

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The future of work becomes less predictable which requires increasing adaptability of organizations to social and work changes. Society is transforming regarding gender identity in the sense that more people come forward to identify as trans and gender diverse (TGD). Organizations are ill-equipped to provide a safe and encouraging work environment by lacking inclusive organizational structures. The qualitative multi-method research about TGD inclusivity in the workplace explores the enablers and barriers for TGD individuals to satisfactorily engage in the work environment and organizational culture. Furthermore, these TGD insights are analyzed based on organizational implications and awareness from a leadership and management perspective. The semi-structured online interviews with TGD individuals and the photo-elicit open-ended questionnaire addressed to leadership and management in diversity, career development, and human resources have been analyzed with a critical grounded theory approach. Findings demonstrated the significance of TGD voices, the support of leadership and management, as well as the synergy between voices and leadership. Hence, it indicates practical implications such as the revision of exclusive language used in policies, data collection, or communication and reconsideration of organizational decision-making by leaders to include TGD voices.

Keywords: Future of work, occupational identity, organizational decision-making, trans and gender diverse identity.

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Authors: Mohammad Akbarpour, Reza Nasiri Mahalati, Caro Lucas

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The existence of many biological systems, especially human societies, is based on cooperative behavior [1, 2]. If natural selection favors selfish individuals, then what mechanism is at work that we see so many cooperative behaviors? One answer is the effect of network structure. On a graph, cooperators can evolve by forming network bunches [2, 3, 4]. In a research, Ohtsuki et al used the idea of iterated prisoners- dilemma on a graph to model an evolutionary game. They showed that the average number of neighbors plays an important role in determining whether cooperation is the ESS of the system or not [3]. In this paper, we are going to study the dynamics of evolution of cooperation in a social network. We show that during evolution, the ratio of cooperators among individuals with fewer neighbors to cooperators among other individuals is greater than unity. The extent to which the fitness function depends on the payoff of the game determines this ratio.

Keywords: Evolution of cooperation, Iterated prisoner's dilemma, Model dynamics, Social network structure, Intensity of selection.

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Authors: S. Cherif, S. Marcos, M. Jaidane

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In this paper the behavior of the decision feedback equalizers (DFEs) adapted by the decision-directed or the constant modulus blind algorithms is presented. An analysis of the error surface of the corresponding criterion cost functions is first developed. With the intention of avoiding the ill-convergence of the algorithm, the paper proposes to modify the shape of the cost function error surface by using a soft decision instead of the hard one. This was shown to reduce the influence of false decisions and to smooth the undesirable minima. Modified algorithms using the soft decision during a pseudo-training phase with an automatic switch to the properly tracking phase are then derived. Computer simulations show that these modified algorithms present better ability to avoid local minima than conventional ones.

Keywords: Blind DFEs, decision-directed algorithm, constant modulus algorithm, cost function analysis, convergence analysis, soft decision.

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Authors: Françoise Petersen, Mike Pluke, Tatiana Kovacikova, Giovanni Bartolomeo

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As communications systems and technology become more advanced and complex, it will be increasingly important to focus on users- individual needs. Personalization and effective user profile management will be necessary to ensure the uptake and success of new services and devices and it is therefore important to focus on the users- requirements in this area and define solutions that meet these requirements. The work on personalization and user profiles emerged from earlier ETSI work on a Universal Communications Identifier (UCI) which is a unique identifier of the user rather than a range of identifiers of the many of communication devices or services (e.g. numbers of fixed phone at home/work, mobile phones, fax and email addresses). This paper describes work on personalization including standardized information and preferences and an architectural framework providing a description of how personalization can be integrated in Next Generation Networks, together with the UCI concept.

Keywords: Interoperability, Next Generation Network (NGN), Personalization, Universal Communications Identifier (UCI), User Profile Management (UPM)

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Authors: Christian Böning, Henrik Prinzhorn, Eric C. Hund, Malte Stonis

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In this article, the flexible job-shop scheduling problem is extended by consideration of energy costs which arise owing to the power peak, and further decision variables such as work in process and throughput time are incorporated into the objective function. This enables a production plan to be simultaneously optimized in respect of the real arising energy and logistics costs. The energy-costs-aware flexible job-shop scheduling problem (EFJSP) which arises is described mathematically, and a memetic algorithm (MA) is presented as a solution. In the MA, the evolutionary process is supplemented with a local search. Furthermore, repair procedures are used in order to rectify any infeasible solutions that have arisen in the evolutionary process. The potential for lowering the real arising costs of a production plan through consideration of energy consumption levels is highlighted.

Keywords: Energy costs, flexible job-shop scheduling, memetic algorithm, power peak.

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Authors: O. A. Apampa, Y. A. Jimoh, K. A. Olonade

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The need to save time and cost of soil testing at the planning stage of road work has necessitated developing predictive models. This study proposes a model for predicting the dry density of lateritic soils stabilized with corn cob ash (CCA) and blended cement - CCA. Lateritic soil was first stabilized with CCA at 1.5, 3.0, 4.5 and 6% of the weight of soil and then stabilized with the same proportions as replacement for cement. Dry density, specific gravity, maximum degree of saturation and moisture content were determined for each stabilized soil specimen, following standard procedure. Polynomial equations containing alpha and beta parameters for CCA and blended CCA-cement were developed. Experimental values were correlated with the values predicted from the Matlab curve fitting tool, and the Solver function of Microsoft Excel 2010. The correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.86 was obtained indicating that the model could be accepted in predicting the maximum dry density of CCA stabilized soils to facilitate quick decision making in roadworks.

Keywords: Corn cob ash, lateritic soil, stabilization, maximum dry density, moisture content.

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Authors: Yong-Sung Kim, Je-Seok Shin, Ho-Jun Jo Jin-O Kim

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Home Energy Management System (HEMS), which makes the residential consumers, contribute to the demand response is attracting attention in recent years. An aim of HEMS is to minimize their electricity cost by controlling the use of their appliances according to electricity price. The use of appliances in HEMS may be affected by some conditions such as external temperature and electricity price. Therefore, the user’s usage pattern of appliances should be modeled according to the external conditions, and the resultant usage pattern is related to the user’s comfortability on use of each appliances. This paper proposes a methodology to model the usage pattern based on the historical data with the copula function. Through copula function, the usage range of each appliance can be obtained and is able to satisfy the appropriate user’s comfort according to the external conditions for next day. Within the usage range, an optimal scheduling for appliances would be conducted so as to minimize an electricity cost with considering user’s comfort. Among the home appliance, electric heater (EH) is a representative appliance, which is affected by the external temperature. In this paper, an optimal scheduling algorithm for an electric heater (EH) is addressed based on the method of branch and bound. As a result, scenarios for the EH usage are obtained according to user’s comfort levels and then the residential consumer would select the best scenario. The case study shows the effects of the proposed algorithm compared with the traditional operation of the EH, and it represents impacts of the comfort level on the scheduling result.

Keywords: Load scheduling, usage pattern, user’s comfort, copula function, branch, bound, electric heater.

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Authors: R. Lotfi, M. Loukid, M.K. Hilali

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The reproductive aging of women is a biological process which is expressed by the loss of ovarian function and therefore the loss of the possibility of procreation. The present work aims to evaluate the effect of menopause on sexual health of rural women and to examine the determinants of female sexuality after menopause. A survey was conducted among 527 women in the rural area of Marrakech. The average age of women was 51.92 ± 7.24 years. It appears from this study that sexual activity in menopausal women decreases with age, 20% of women had no sexual activity after menopause. 72% of respondents reported having sex by obligation, 71% of women say they are not satisfied with their sexuality, while 29 % are very satisfied. The most common sexual complaints are represented by the decreased libido (81%), vaginal dryness (54%), and pain (22,7%). Of the 511 women with sexual dysfunction, only 34 (6, 4%) consulted for this disorder. Many factors may influence sex include menopause and all the biological changes but also the roles of culture, social constructions and perception of sexuality after menopause are complicated.

Keywords: Keywords—Reproductive aging, menopause, sexuality, rural women.

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Authors: Alessandra Agostini, Roberto Boselli, Flavio De Paoli, Riccardo Dondi

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The work presented in this paper focus on Knowledge Management services enabling CSCW (Computer Supported Cooperative Work) applications to provide an appropriate adaptation to the user and the situation in which the user is working. In this paper, we explain how a knowledge management system can be designed to support users in different situations exploiting contextual data, users' preferences, and profiles of involved artifacts (e.g., documents, multimedia files, mockups...). The presented work roots in the experience we had in the MILK project and early steps made in the MAIS project.

Keywords: Information Management Systems, InformationRetrieval, Knowledge Management, Mobile CommunicationSystems.

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Authors: Robin C. Ladwig

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Work experiences and satisfaction as well as the feeling of belonging has been narrowly explored from the perspective of trans and gender diverse individuals. Hence, the study investigates the relationship of values, attitudes, and norms of occupational environments and the working identity of trans and gender diverse people of the Australian workforce. Based on 22 semi-structured interviews with trans and gender diverse individuals regarding their work and career experiences, a first insight about their feeling of belonging through commonality in the workplace could be established. Communality between the values, attitudes and norms of a trans and gender diverse individuals working identities and profession, organization and working environment could increase the feeling of belonging. Further reflection and evaluation of trans and gender diverse identities in the workplace need to be considered to create an equitable and inclusive workplace of the future. Consequently, an essential development step for the future of work and its fundamental values of diversity, inclusion, and belonging will consist of the acknowledgement and inclusion of trans and gender diverse people as part of a broader social identity of the workplace.

Keywords: Belonging, future of work, working identity, trans and gender diverse identity.

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Authors: Murat Colak, Berkay Cakir Saridogan

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Since the dawn of modern corporations, almost every single employee has been working in the same loop, which contains three basic steps: going to work, providing the needs for the work, and getting back home. Only a small amount of people was able to break that standard and live outside the box. As the 2019 pandemic hit the Earth and most companies shut down their physical offices, that loop had to change for everyone. This means that the old management styles had to be significantly re-arranged to the "work from home" type of business methods. The methods include online conferences and meetings, time and task tracking using algorithms, globalization of the work, and, most importantly, remote working. After the global epidemic started, even the tech giants were concerned. Now, it can be seen that those technology companies have an incredible step-up in their shares compared to the other companies because they know how to manage such situations even better than every other industry. This study aims to take the old traditional management styles in big companies and compare them with the post-Covid methods (2019-2022). As a result of this comparison made using the annual reports and shared statistics, this study aims to explain why the winners of this crisis are the technology companies.

Keywords: COVID-19, technology companies, business models, remote work.

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Authors: Sultan Noman Qasem

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This paper presents an evolutionary algorithm for solving multi-objective optimization problems-based artificial neural network (ANN). The multi-objective evolutionary algorithm used in this study is genetic algorithm while ANN used is radial basis function network (RBFN). The proposed algorithm named memetic elitist Pareto non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-based RBFN (MEPGAN). The proposed algorithm is implemented on medical diseases problems. The experimental results indicate that the proposed algorithm is viable, and provides an effective means to design multi-objective RBFNs with good generalization capability and compact network structure. This study shows that MEPGAN generates RBFNs coming with an appropriate balance between accuracy and simplicity, comparing to the other algorithms found in literature.

Keywords: Radial basis function network, Hybrid learning, Multi-objective optimization, Genetic algorithm.

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Authors: Ioannis N. Koukoulis, Clio G. Vossou, Christopher G. Provatidis

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The aim of the current work is to present a comparison among three popular optimization methods in the inverse elastostatics problem (IESP) of flaw detection within a solid. In more details, the performance of a simulated annealing, a Hooke & Jeeves and a sequential quadratic programming algorithm was studied in the test case of one circular flaw in a plate solved by both the boundary element (BEM) and the finite element method (FEM). The proposed optimization methods use a cost function that utilizes the displacements of the static response. The methods were ranked according to the required number of iterations to converge and to their ability to locate the global optimum. Hence, a clear impression regarding the performance of the aforementioned algorithms in flaw identification problems was obtained. Furthermore, the coupling of BEM or FEM with these optimization methods was investigated in order to track differences in their performance.

Keywords: Elastostatic, inverse problem, optimization.

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Authors: Y. Bhatt, N. Ghosh, N. Tiwari

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Acreage response function are modeled taking account of expected harvest prices, weather related variables and other non-price variables allowing for partial adjustment possibility. At the outset, based on the literature on price expectation formation, we explored suitable formulations for estimating the farmer’s expected prices. Assuming that farmers form expectations rationally, the prices of food and biofuel crops are modeled using time-series methods for possible ARCH/GARCH effects to account for volatility. The prices projected on the basis of the models are then inserted to proxy for the expected prices in the acreage response functions. Food crop acreages in different growing states are found sensitive to their prices relative to those of one or more of the biofuel crops considered. The required percentage improvement in food crop yields is worked to offset the acreage loss.

Keywords: Acreage response function, biofuel, food security, sustainable development.

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Authors: Marija Zulić, Vanda Hájková, Nina Brkić-Jovanović, Linda Rathousová, Sanja Tomić

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Cerebral palsy is primarily reflected in the disorder of the development of movement and posture, which may be accompanied by sensory disturbances, disturbances of perception, cognition and communication, behavioural disorders and epilepsy. According to current inclusive attitudes towards people with disabilities implies that full social participation of children with cerebral palsy means inclusion in all activities in family, peer, school and leisure environments in the same scope and to the same extent as is the case with the children of proper development and without physical difficulties. Due to the fact that it has been established that the quality of children's participation in primary school is directly related to their social inclusion in future life, the aim of the paper is to identify predictors of social participation, respectively, and in particular, factors that could to improve the quality of social participation of children with cerebral palsy, in the primary school environment in Czech Republic. The study includes children with cerebral palsy (n = 75) in the Czech Republic, aged between six and 12 years who attend mainstream or special primary schools to the sixth grade. The main instrument used was the first and third part of the School function assessment questionnaire. It will also take into account the type of damage assessed according to a scale the Gross motor function classification system, five–level classification system for cerebral palsy. The research results will provide detailed insight into the degree of social participation of children with cerebral palsy and the factors that would be a potential cause of their levels of participation, in regular and special primary schools, in different socioeconomic environments in Czech Republic.

Keywords: Cerebral palsy, social participation, Czech Republic, school function assessment.

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Authors: M. Haghighi, M. Zowghi, B. Zohouri

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Quality Function Deployment (QFD) is an expounded, multi-step planning method for delivering commodity, services, and processes to customers, both external and internal to an organization. It is a way to convert between the diverse customer languages expressing demands (Voice of the Customer), and the organization-s languages expressing results that sate those demands. The policy is to establish one or more matrices that inter-relate producer and consumer reciprocal expectations. Due to its visual presence is called the “House of Quality" (HOQ). In this paper, we assumed HOQ in multi attribute decision making (MADM) pattern and through a proposed MADM method, rank technical specifications. Thereafter compute satisfaction degree of customer requirements and for it, we apply vagueness and uncertainty conditions in decision making by fuzzy set theory. This approach would propound supervised neural network (perceptron) for MADM problem solving.

Keywords: MADM, fuzzy set, QFD, supervised neural network (perceptron).

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Authors: A. Moussouni, L. Mouzai, M. Bouhadef

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The purpose of this investigation is to relate the rain power and the overland flow power to soil erodibility to assess the effects of both parameters on soil erosion using variable rainfall intensity on remoulded agricultural soil. Six rainfall intensities were used to simulate the natural rainfall and are as follows: 12.4mm/h, 20.3mm/h, 28.6mm/h, 52mm/h, 73.5mm/h and 103mm/h. The results have shown that the relationship between overland flow power and rain power is best represented by a linear function (R2=0.99). As regards the relationships between soil erodibility factor and rain and overland flow powers, the evolution of both parameters with the erodibility factor follow a polynomial function with high coefficient of determination. From their coefficients of determination (R2=0.95) for rain power and (R2=0.96) for overland flow power, we can conclude that the flow has more power to detach particles than rain. This could be explained by the fact that the presence of particles, already detached by rain and transported by the flow, give the flow more weight and then contribute to the detachment of particles by collision.

Keywords: Laboratory experiments, soil erosion, flow power, erodibility, rainfall intensity.

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Authors: Usha Sridhar, Sridhar Mandyam

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We propose a multi-agent based utilitarian approach to model and understand information flows in social networks that lead to Pareto optimal informational exchanges. We model the individual expected utility function of the agents to reflect the net value of information received. We show how this model, adapted from a theorem by Karl Borch dealing with an actuarial Risk Exchange concept in the Insurance industry, can be used for social network analysis. We develop a utilitarian framework that allows us to interpret Pareto optimal exchanges of value as potential information flows, while achieving a maximization of a sum of expected utilities of information of the group of agents. We examine some interesting conditions on the utility function under which the flows are optimal. We illustrate the promise of this new approach to attach economic value to information in networks with a synthetic example.

Keywords: Borch's Theorem , Economic value of information, Information Exchange, Pareto Optimal Solution, Social Networks, Utility Functions

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Authors: N. Olarte L, A. Rubiano F, A. Mejía F.

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This comparison of valuation techniques for bone age assessment is a work carried out by the Telemedicine Research Group of the Military University - TIGUM, as a preliminary to the Design and development a treatment system of hand and wrist radiological images for children aged 0-6 years to bone age assessment . In this paper the techniques mentioned for decades have been the most widely used and the statistically significant. Althought, initially with the current project, it wants to work with children who have limit age, this comparison and evaluation techniques work will help in the future to expand the study subject in the system to bone age assessment, implementing more techniques, tools and deeper analysis to accomplish this purpose.

Keywords: Atlas, Bone Age Assessment, Hand and Wrist Radiograph, Image Processing

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Authors: Tahseen A. Jilani, Aqil S. Burney, C. Ardil

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Time series models have been used to make predictions of academic enrollments, weather, road accident, casualties and stock prices, etc. Based on the concepts of quartile regression models, we have developed a simple time variant quantile based fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method bases the forecast using prediction of future trend of the data. In place of actual quantiles of the data at each point, we have converted the statistical concept into fuzzy concept by using fuzzy quantiles using fuzzy membership function ensemble. We have given a fuzzy metric to use the trend forecast and calculate the future value. The proposed model is applied for TAIFEX forecasting. It is shown that proposed method work best as compared to other models when compared with respect to model complexity and forecasting accuracy.

Keywords: Quantile Regression, Fuzzy time series, fuzzy logicalrelationship groups, heuristic trend prediction.

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Authors: M.Jalali Azizpour, S.Norouzi, H.mohammadi Majd, M.M.Rabieh, D.Sajedipour, A. Jaderi

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The mechanical and tribological properties in WC-Co coatings are strongly affected by hardness and elasticity specifications. The results revealed the effect of spraying distance on microhardness and elasticity modulus of coatings. The metallurgical studies have been made on coated samples using optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM).

Keywords: Elasticity modulus, HVOF, Micro-indentation, Thermal spray, WC-Co

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Authors: I. Falconett, K. Nagasaka

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This study investigates the performance of radial basis function networks (RBFN) in forecasting the monthly CO2 emissions of an electric power utility. We also propose a method for input variable selection. This method is based on identifying the general relationships between groups of input candidates and the output. The effect that each input has on the forecasting error is examined by removing all inputs except the variable to be investigated from its group, calculating the networks parameter and performing the forecast. Finally, the new forecasting error is compared with the reference model. Eight input variables were identified as the most relevant, which is significantly less than our reference model with 30 input variables. The simulation results demonstrate that the model with the 8 inputs selected using the method introduced in this study performs as accurate as the reference model, while also being the most parsimonious.

Keywords: Correlation analysis, CO2 emissions forecasting, electric power utility, radial basis function networks.

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Authors: Tirthankar Ghosh, Dilip Roy, Nimai Kumar Chandra

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Sometime it is difficult to determine the exact reliability for complex systems in analytical procedures. Approximate solution of this problem can be provided through discretization of random variables. In this paper we describe the usefulness of discretization of a random variable using the reversed hazard rate function of its continuous version. Discretization of the exponential distribution has been demonstrated. Applications of this approach have also been cited. Numerical calculations indicate that the proposed approach gives very good approximation of reliability of complex systems under stress-strength set-up. The performance of the proposed approach is better than the existing discrete concentration method of discretization. This approach is conceptually simple, handles analytic intractability and reduces computational time. The approach can be applied in manufacturing industries for producing high-reliable items.

Keywords: Discretization, Reversed Hazard Rate, Exponential distribution, reliability approximation, engineering item.

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Authors: Katleho Daniel Makatjane, Diteboho Lawrence Xaba, Ntebogang Dinah Moroke

Abstract:

The current study investigates the behaviour of time-varying parameters that are based on the score function of the predictive model density at time t. The mechanism to update the parameters over time is the scaled score of the likelihood function. The results revealed that there is high persistence of time-varying, as the location parameter is higher and the skewness parameter implied the departure of scale parameter from the normality with the unconditional parameter as 1.5. The results also revealed that there is a perseverance of the leptokurtic behaviour in stock returns which implies the returns are heavily tailed. Prior to model estimation, the White Neural Network test exposed that the stock price can be modelled by a GAS model. Finally, we proposed further researches specifically to model the existence of time-varying parameters with a more detailed model that encounters the heavy tail distribution of the series and computes the risk measure associated with the returns.

Keywords: Generalized autoregressive score model, stock returns, time-varying.

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