Search results for: Analytical model

Authors: M. F. Yaqub, I. Gondal, J. Kamruzzaman

Abstract:

Wavelet transform has been extensively used in machine fault diagnosis and prognosis owing to its strength to deal with non-stationary signals. The existing Wavelet transform based schemes for fault diagnosis employ wavelet decomposition of the entire vibration frequency which not only involve huge computational overhead in extracting the features but also increases the dimensionality of the feature vector. This increase in the dimensionality has the tendency to 'over-fit' the training data and could mislead the fault diagnostic model. In this paper a novel technique, envelope wavelet packet transform (EWPT) is proposed in which features are extracted based on wavelet packet transform of the filtered envelope signal rather than the overall vibration signal. It not only reduces the computational overhead in terms of reduced number of wavelet decomposition levels and features but also improves the fault detection accuracy. Analytical expressions are provided for the optimal frequency resolution and decomposition level selection in EWPT. Experimental results with both actual and simulated machine fault data demonstrate significant gain in fault detection ability by EWPT at reduced complexity compared to existing techniques.

Keywords: Envelope Detection, Wavelet Transform, Bearing Faults, Machine Health Monitoring.

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Authors: Aboagela Dogman, Reza Saatchi, Samir Al-Khayatt

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In this study, a network quality of service (QoS) evaluation system was proposed. The system used a combination of fuzzy C-means (FCM) and regression model to analyse and assess the QoS in a simulated network. Network QoS parameters of multimedia applications were intelligently analysed by FCM clustering algorithm. The QoS parameters for each FCM cluster centre were then inputted to a regression model in order to quantify the overall QoS. The proposed QoS evaluation system provided valuable information about the network-s QoS patterns and based on this information, the overall network-s QoS was effectively quantified.

Keywords: Fuzzy C-means; regression model, network quality of service

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Authors: Yanling Zhu, Kai Wang

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In this paper, by utilizing the coincidence degree theorem a predator-prey model with modified Leslie-Gower Hollingtype II schemes and a deviating argument is studied. Some sufficient conditions are obtained for the existence of positive periodic solutions of the model.

Keywords: Predator-prey model, Holling II type functional response, positive periodic solution, coincidence degree theorem.

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Authors: A. Larabi, M. S. Boucherit

Abstract:

In this paper, we show that the association of the PI regulators for the speed and stator currents with a control strategy using the linearization by state feedback for an induction machine without speed sensor, and with an adaptation of the rotor resistance. The rotor speed is estimated by using the model reference adaptive system approach (MRAS). This method consists of using two models: The first is the reference model and the second is an adjustable one in which two components of the stator flux, obtained from the measurement of the currents and stator voltages are estimated. The estimated rotor speed is then obtained by canceling the difference between stator-flux of the reference model and those of the adjustable one. Satisfactory results of simulation are obtained and discussed in this paper to highlight the proposed approach.

Keywords: Asynchronous actuator, PI Regulator, adaptivemethod with reference model, Vector control.

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Authors: S. F. Wong, W. I. Ho, B. Lin, Q. Huang

Abstract:

ERP has been used in many enterprises for management, the accuracy of the production forecasting module is vital to the decision making of the enterprise, and the profit is affected directly. Therefore, enhancing the accuracy of the production forecasting module can also increase the efficiency and profitability. To deal with a lot of data, a suitable, reliable and accurate statistics model is necessary. LSSVM and Grey System are two main models to be studied in this paper, and a case study is used to demonstrate how the combination model is effective to the result of forecasting.

Keywords: ERP, Grey System, LSSVM, production forecasting.

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Authors: Changjin Xu

Abstract:

In this paper, a delayed prototype model is studied. Regarding the delay as a bifurcation parameter, we prove that a sequence of Hopf bifurcations will occur at the positive equilibrium when the delay increases. Using the normal form method and center manifold theory, some explicit formulae are worked out for determining the stability and the direction of the bifurcated periodic solutions. Finally, Computer simulations are carried out to explain some mathematical conclusions.

Keywords: Prototype model, Stability, Hopf bifurcation, Delay, Periodic solution.

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Authors: A. S. Mousa, F. Shoman

Abstract:

We present a discrete game theoretical model with homogeneous individuals who make simultaneous decisions. In this model the strategy space of all individuals is a discrete and dichotomous set which consists of two strategies. We fully characterize the coherent, split and mixed strategies that form Nash equilibria and we determine the corresponding Nash domains for all individuals. We find all strategic thresholds in which individuals can change their mind if small perturbations in the parameters of the model occurs.

Keywords: Coherent strategy, split strategy, pure strategy, mixed strategy, Nash Equilibrium, game theory.

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Authors: M. M. Rahman, Thamir K. Ibrahim, M. Y. Taib, M. M. Noor, Rosli A. Bakar

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Regenerative gas turbine engine cycle is presented that yields higher cycle efficiencies than simple cycle operating under the same conditions. The power output, efficiency and specific fuel consumption are simulated with respect to operating conditions. The analytical formulae about the relation to determine the thermal efficiency are derived taking into account the effected operation conditions (ambient temperature, compression ratio, regenerator effectiveness, compressor efficiency, turbine efficiency and turbine inlet temperature). Model calculations for a wide range of parameters are presented, as are comparisons with simple gas turbine cycle. The power output and thermal efficiency are found to be increasing with the regenerative effectiveness, and the compressor and turbine efficiencies. The efficiency increased with increase the compression ratio to 5, then efficiency decreased with increased compression ratio, but in simple cycle the thermal efficiency always increase with increased in compression ratio. The increased in ambient temperature caused decreased thermal efficiency, but the increased in turbine inlet temperature increase thermal efficiency.

Keywords: Gas turbine, power plant, thermal analysis, regeneration

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Authors: N. A. H. Aizam, V. Uvaraja

Abstract:

The agenda of showing the scheduled time for performing certain tasks is known as timetabling. It is widely used in many departments such as transportation, education, and production. Some difficulties arise to ensure all tasks happen in the time and place allocated. Therefore, many researchers invented various programming models to solve the scheduling problems from several fields. However, the studies in developing the general integer programming model for many timetabling problems are still questionable. Meanwhile, this thesis describes about creating a general model which solves different types of timetabling problems by considering the basic constraints. Initially, the common basic constraints from five different fields are selected and analyzed. A general basic integer programming model was created and then verified by using the medium set of data obtained randomly which is much similar to realistic data. The mathematical software, AIMMS with CPLEX as a solver has been used to solve the model. The model obtained is significant in solving many timetabling problems easily since it is modifiable to all types of scheduling problems which have same basic constraints.

Keywords: AIMMS mathematical software, integer linear programming, scheduling problems, timetabling.

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Authors: Pathinathan Theresanathan, Ajay Minj

Abstract:

Ignatian Discernment Process (IDP) is an intense decision-making tool to decide on life-issues. Decisions are influenced by various factors outside of the decision maker and inclination within. This paper develops IDP in the context of Fuzzy Multi-criteria Decision Making (FMCDM) process. Extended VIKOR method is a decision-making method which encompasses even conflict situations and accommodates weightage to various issues. Various aspects of IDP, namely three ways of decision making and tactics of inner desires, are observed, analyzed and articulated within the frame work of fuzzy rules. The decision-making situations are broadly categorized into two types. The issues outside of the decision maker influence the person. The inner feeling also plays vital role in coming to a conclusion. IDP integrates both the categories using Extended VIKOR method. Case studies are carried out and analyzed with FMCDM process. Finally, IDP is verified with an illustrative case study and results are interpreted. A confused person who could not come to a conclusion is able to take decision on a concrete way of life through IDP. The proposed IDP model recommends an integrated and committed approach to value-based decision making.

Keywords: Analytical hierarchy process, fuzzy multi-criteria decision making, Ignatian discernment process, Ignatian discernment, multi-criteria decision making, VIKOR.

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Authors: Nisha Budhwar, Sunita Daniel

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In this paper, we analyse the stability of the SEIR model of malaria with infective immigrants which was recently formulated by the authors. The model consists of an SEIR model for the human population and SI Model for the mosquitoes. Susceptible humans become infected after they are bitten by infectious mosquitoes and move on to the Exposed, Infected and Recovered classes respectively. The susceptible mosquito becomes infected after biting an infected person and remains infected till death. We calculate the reproduction number R0 using the next generation method and then discuss about the stability of the equilibrium points. We use the Lyapunov function to show the global stability of the equilibrium points.

Keywords: Susceptible, exposed, infective, recovered, infective immigrants, reproduction number, Lyapunov function, equilibrium points, global stability.

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Authors: D. I. De Souza, D. R. Fonseca, D. Kipper

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In this paper, the test purpose will be to assess whether or not the accelerated model proposed by Eyring will be able to translate results for the shape and scale parameters of an underlying Weibull model, obtained under two accelerating using conditions, to expected normal using condition results for these parameters. The product being analyzed is a new type of insulate fluid, and the accelerating factor is the voltage stresses applied to the fluid at two different levels (30KV and 40KV). The normal operating voltage is 25KV. In this case, it was possible to test the insulate fluid at normal voltage using condition. Both results for the two parameters of the Weibull model, obtained under normal using condition and translated from accelerated using conditions to normal conditions, will be compared to each other to assess the accuracy of the Eyring model when the accelerating factor is only the voltage stress.

Keywords: Eyring Accelerated Model, Sequential Life Testing, Two-Parameter Weibull Distribution, Voltage Stresses.

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Authors: Guilherme B. B. Vieira, Rafael M. da Silva, Eliana T. P. Senna, Luiz A. S. Senna, Francisco J. Kliemann Neto

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Given the importance of ports as links in the global supply chains and because they are key elements to induce competitiveness in their hinterlands, the number of studies devoted to port governance, management and operations has increased in the last decades. Some of these studies address the port governance model as an element to improve coordination among the actors of the portlogistics chain and to generate a better port performance. In this context, the present study analyzes the governance of Port of Santos through individual interviews with port managers, based on a conceptual model that considers the key dimensions associated with port governance. The results reinforce the usefulness of the applied model and highlight some existing improvement opportunities in the port studied.

Keywords: Port Governance, Model, Port of Santos, Managers’ Perception.

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Authors: Han-Soo Kim, Jae-Gyun Ahn, Hyo-Seung Ahn

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Though nonlinear dynamic analysis using a specialized hydro-code such as AUTODYN is accurate and useful tool for progressive collapse assessment of a multi-story building subjected to blast load, it takes too much time to be applied to a practical simulation of progressive collapse of a tall building. In this paper, blast analysis of a RC frame structure using a simplified model with Reinforcement Contact technique provided in Ansys Workbench was introduced and investigated on its accuracy. Even though the simplified model has a fraction of elements of the detailed model, the simplified model with this modeling technique shows similar structural behavior under the blast load to the detailed model. The proposed modeling method can be effectively applied to blast loading progressive collapse analysis of a RC frame structure.

Keywords: Autodyn, Blast Load, Progressive Collapse, Reinforcement Contact.

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Authors: Kang-Hung Yang, Jin-Yuan Hsu

Abstract:

In recent years, several severe large-scale influenza outbreaks happened in many countries, such as SARS in 2005 or H1N1 in 2009. Those influenza Epidemics have greatly impacts not only on people-s life and health, but medical systems in different countries. Although severe diseases are more experienced, they are not fully controlled. Governments have different policies to control the spreads of diseases. However, those policies have both positive and negative social or economical influence on people and society. Therefore, it is necessary and essential to develop an appropriate model for evaluations of policies. Consequently, a proper measure can be implemented to confront the diseases. The main goal of this study is to develop a SIR-based model for the further evaluations of the candidate policies during the influenza outbreaks.

Keywords: SIR, influenza, systems dynamic model, H1N1

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Authors: A. Bayaga

Abstract:

This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Keywords: AIDS mortality rates, Epidemiological model, Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process, Transition Probability, Statistics South Africa.

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Authors: Jeewanee Bamunusinghe, Damminda Alahakoon

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Visual inputs are one of the key sources from which humans perceive the environment and 'understand' what is happening. Artificial systems perceive the visual inputs as digital images. The images need to be processed and analysed. Within the human brain, processing of visual inputs and subsequent development of perception is one of its major functionalities. In this paper we present part of our research project, which aims at the development of an artificial model for visual perception (or 'understanding') based on the human perceptive and cognitive systems. We propose a new model for perception from visual inputs and a way of understaning or interpreting images using the model. We demonstrate the implementation and use of the model with a real image data set.

Keywords: Image understanding, percept, visual perception.

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Authors: M. Zarei Mahmoudabadi, M. Sadighi

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In the study of honeycomb crushing under quasistatic loading, two parameters are important, the mean crushing stress and the wavelength of the folding mode. The previous theoretical models did not consider the true cylindrical curvature effects and the flow stress in the folding mode of honeycomb material. The present paper introduces a modification on Wierzbicki-s model based on considering two above mentioned parameters in estimating the mean crushing stress and the wavelength through implementation of the energy method. Comparison of the results obtained by the new model and Wierzbicki-s model with existing experimental data shows better prediction by the model presented in this paper.

Keywords: Crush strength, Flow stress, Honeycomb, Quasistatic load.

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Authors: Ahmed Abdolkhalig

Abstract:

This paper examines many mathematical methods for molding the hourly price forward curve (HPFC); the model will be constructed by numerous regression methods, like polynomial regression, radial basic function neural networks & a furrier series. Examination the models goodness of fit will be done by means of statistical & graphical tools. The criteria for choosing the model will depend on minimize the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), using the correlation analysis approach for the regression analysis the optimal model will be distinct, which are robust against model misspecification. Learning & supervision technique employed to determine the form of the optimal parameters corresponding to each measure of overall loss. By using all the numerical methods that mentioned previously; the explicit expressions for the optimal model derived and the optimal designs will be implemented.

Keywords: Forward curve, furrier series, regression, radial basic function neural networks.

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Authors: Hadia Abdel Aziz, Raghda El Ebrashi

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Business models are shaped by their design space or the environment they are designed to be implemented in. The rapidly changing economic, technological, political, regulatory and market external environment severely affects business logic. This is particularly true for social enterprises whose core mission is to transform their environments, and thus, their whole business logic revolves around the interchange between the enterprise and the environment. The context in which social business operates imposes different business design constraints while at the same time, open up new design opportunities. It is also affected to a great extent by the impact that successful enterprises generate; a continuous loop of interaction that needs to be managed through a dynamic capability in order to generate a lasting powerful impact. This conceptual research synthesizes and analyzes literature on social enterprise, social enterprise business models, business model innovation, business model design, and the open system view theory to propose a new business model design process for social enterprises that takes into account the critical role of environmental factors. This process would help the social enterprise develop a dynamic capability that ensures the alignment of its business model to its environmental context, thus, maximizing its probability of success.

Keywords: Social enterprise, business model, business model design.

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Authors: Vignesh Rangaraj, Jerin John, N. Naveen, M. Karuppasamy Pandian, P. Sathyan, V. R. Sanal Kumar

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In this paper parametric analytical studies have been carried out to examine the intrinsic flow physics pertaining to the liftoff time of solid propellant rockets. Idealized inert simulators of solid rockets are selected for numerical studies to examining the preignition chamber dynamics. Detailed diagnostic investigations have been carried out using an unsteady two-dimensional k-omega turbulence model. We conjectured from the numerical results that the altered variations of the igniter jet impingement angle, turbulence level, time and location of the first ignition, flame spread characteristics, the overall chamber dynamics including the boundary layer growth history are having bearing on the time for nozzle flow chocking for establishing the required thrust for the rocket liftoff. We concluded that the altered flow choking time of strap-on motors with the pre-determined identical ignition time at the lift off phase will lead to the malfunctioning of the rocket. We also concluded that, in the light of the space debris, an error in predicting the liftoff time can lead to an unfavorable launch window amounts the satellite injection errors and/or the mission failures.

Keywords: Liftoff, Nozzle Choking, Solid Rocket, Takeoff.

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Authors: K.M. Ngcobo, S.D. Eyono Obono

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Indigenous Knowledge (IK) has many social and economic benefits. However, IK is at the risk of extinction due to the difficulties to preserve it as most of the IK largely remains undocumented. This study aims to design a model of the factors affecting the adoption of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) for the preservation of IK. The proposed model is based on theoretical frameworks on ICT adoption. It was designed following a literature review of ICT adoption theories for households, and of the factors affecting ICT adoption for IK. The theory that fitted to the best all factors was then chosen as the basis for the proposed model. This study found that the Model of Adoption of Technology in Households (MATH) is the most suitable theoretical framework for modeling ICT adoption factors for the preservation of IK.

Keywords: Adoption factors, ICT adoption theories, Indigenous knowledge.

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Authors: B. Engel, H. Hassan

Abstract:

Rotary draw bending is a method which is being used in tube forming. In the tube bending process, the neutral axis moves towards the inner arc and the wall thickness distribution changes for tube’s cross section. Thinning takes place in the outer arc of the tube (extrados) due to the stretching of the material, whereas thickening occurs in the inner arc of the tube (intrados) due to the comparison of the material. The calculations of the wall thickness distribution, neutral axis shifting, and strain distribution have not been accurate enough, so far. The previous model (the geometrical model) describes the neutral axis shifting and wall thickness distribution. The geometrical of the tube, bending radius and bending angle are considered in the geometrical model, while the influence of the material properties of the tube forming are ignored. The advanced model is a modification of the previous model using material properties that depends on the correction factor. The correction factor is a purely empirically determined factor. The advanced model was compared with the Finite element simulation (FE simulation) using a different bending factor (Bf =bending radius/ diameter of the tube), wall thickness (Wf = diameter of the tube/ wall thickness), and material properties (strain hardening exponent). Finite element model of rotary draw bending has been performed in PAM-TUBE program (version: 2012). Results from the advanced model resemble the FE simulation and the experimental test.

Keywords: Rotary draw bending, material properties, neutral axis shifting, wall thickness distribution.

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Authors: L. Nikakhtar, S. Zare

Abstract:

One of the main practical difficulties attended with tunnel construction is related to underground water. Uncontrolled water behavior may cause extra loads on the lining, mechanical instability, and unfavorable environmental problems. Estimating underground water inflow rate to the tunnels is a complex skill. The common calculation methods are: empirical methods, analytical solutions, numerical solutions based on the equivalent continuous porous media. In this research the rate of underground water inflow to the Tabriz metro first line tunnel has been investigated by numerical finite difference method using FLAC^2D software. Comparing results of Heuer analytical method and numerical simulation showed good agreement with each other. Fully coupled and one-way coupled hydro mechanical states as well as water-free conditions in the soil around the tunnel are used in numerical models and these models have been applied to evaluate the loading value on the tunnel support system. Results showed that the fully coupled hydro mechanical analysis estimated more axial forces, moments and shear forces in linings, so this type of analysis is more conservative and reliable method for design of tunnel lining system. As sensitivity analysis, inflow water rates into the tunnel were evaluated in different soil permeability, underground water levels and depths of the tunnel. Result demonstrated that water level in constant depth of the tunnel is more sensitive factor for water inflow rate to the tunnel in comparison of other parameters investigated in the sensitivity analysis.

Keywords: Coupled hydro mechanical analysis, FLAC2D, Tabriz Metro, inflow rate.

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Authors: Ion Smeureanu, Adriana Reveiu, Marian Dardala, Titus Felix Furtuna, Roman Kanala

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This paper proposes a linear model for optimizing domestic energy consumption in Romania. The particularity of the model is that it is putting in competition both tangible technologies and thermal insulation projects with different financing modes. The model is optimizing the energy system by minimizing the global discounted cost in household sector, by integrating residential lighting, space heating, hot water, combined space heating – hot water, as well as space cooling, in a monolithic model. Another demand sector included is the passenger transport. This paper focuses on space heating part, analyzing technical and economic issues related to investment decisions to envelope and insulate buildings, in order to minimize energy consumption.

Keywords: Consumer behavior, energy modelling, Open Source Energy Modeling System (OSeMOSYS), MARKAL/TIMES Romanian energy model.

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Authors: A. Amar, N. Burtebayev, Sh. Hamada, Kerimkulov Zhambul, N. Amangieldy

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Analysis of the elastic scattering of protons on 6,7Li nuclei has been done in the framework of the optical model at the beam energies up to 50 MeV. Differential cross sections for the 6,7Li + p scattering were measured over the proton laboratory–energy range from 400 to 1050 keV. The elastic scattering of 6,7Li+p data at different proton incident energies have been analyzed using singlefolding model. In each case the real potential obtained from the folding model was supplemented by a phenomenological imaginary potential, and during the fitting process the real potential was normalized and the imaginary potential optimized. Normalization factor NR is calculated in the range between 0.70 and 0.84.

Keywords: scattering of protons on 6, 7Li nuclei, Esis88 Codesingle-folding model, phenomenological.

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Authors: Hans H. Diel

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A computer model of Quantum Theory (QT) has been developed by the author. Major goal of the computer model was support and demonstration of an as large as possible scope of QT. This includes simulations for the major QT (Gedanken-) experiments such as, for example, the famous double-slit experiment. Besides the anticipated difficulties with (1) transforming exacting mathematics into a computer program, two further types of problems showed up, namely (2) areas where QT provides a complete mathematical formalism, but when it comes to concrete applications the equations are not solvable at all, or only with extremely high effort; (3) QT rules which are formulated in natural language and which do not seem to be translatable to precise mathematical expressions, nor to a computer program. The paper lists problems in all three categories and describes also the possible solutions or circumventions developed for the computer model.

Keywords: Computability, Foundation of Quantum Mechanics, Measurement Process, Modeling.

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Authors: Tarek Aboueldahab

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In this paper, we propose a new hybrid learning model for stock market indices prediction by adding a passive congregation term to the standard hybrid model comprising Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) with Genetic Algorithm (GA) operators in training Neural Networks (NN). This new passive congregation term is based on the cooperation between different particles in determining new positions rather than depending on the particles selfish thinking without considering other particles positions, thus it enables PSO to perform both the local and global search instead of only doing the local search. Experiment study carried out on the most famous European stock market indices in both long term and short term prediction shows significantly the influence of the passive congregation term in improving the prediction accuracy compared to standard hybrid model.

Keywords: Global Search, Hybrid Model, Passive Congregation, Stock Market Prediction.

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Authors: Eman S. El-Din, Hesham M. El-Badawy, Salwa H. Elramly

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Whereas cellular wireless communication systems are subject to short-and long-term fading. The effect of wireless channel has largely been ignored in most of the teletraffic assessment researches. In this paper, a mathematical teletraffic model is proposed to estimate blocking and forced termination probabilities of cellular wireless networks as a result of teletraffic behavior as well as the outage of the propagation channel. To evaluate the proposed teletraffic model, gamma inter-arrival and general service time distributions have been considered based on wireless channel fading effect. The performance is evaluated and compared with the classical model. The proposed model is dedicated and investigated in different operational conditions. These conditions will consider not only the arrival rate process, but also, the different faded channels models.

Keywords: Cellular wireless networks, outage probability, traffic model, gamma inter-arrival distribution.

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Authors: Mounir Frikha, Michael Meincke, Semia Barouni

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This paper proposes a vehicle-to-vehicle propagation model implemented with SDL. To estimate the channel characteristics for Inter-Vehicle communication, we first define a predicted propagation pathloss between the moving vehicles under three typical scenarios. A Ray-tracing method is used for the simple gamma model performance.

Keywords: Inter-vehicle communication (IVC), propagationmodel, road traffic, road vicinity, pathloss.

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