Search results for: Data mining andInformation Extraction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 8132

Search results for: Data mining andInformation Extraction

572 Issues in Spectral Source Separation Techniques for Plant-wide Oscillation Detection and Diagnosis

Authors: A.K. Tangirala, S. Babji

Abstract:

In the last few years, three multivariate spectral analysis techniques namely, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) have emerged as effective tools for oscillation detection and isolation. While the first method is used in determining the number of oscillatory sources, the latter two methods are used to identify source signatures by formulating the detection problem as a source identification problem in the spectral domain. In this paper, we present a critical drawback of the underlying linear (mixing) model which strongly limits the ability of the associated source separation methods to determine the number of sources and/or identify the physical source signatures. It is shown that the assumed mixing model is only valid if each unit of the process gives equal weighting (all-pass filter) to all oscillatory components in its inputs. This is in contrast to the fact that each unit, in general, acts as a filter with non-uniform frequency response. Thus, the model can only facilitate correct identification of a source with a single frequency component, which is again unrealistic. To overcome this deficiency, an iterative post-processing algorithm that correctly identifies the physical source(s) is developed. An additional issue with the existing methods is that they lack a procedure to pre-screen non-oscillatory/noisy measurements which obscure the identification of oscillatory sources. In this regard, a pre-screening procedure is prescribed based on the notion of sparseness index to eliminate the noisy and non-oscillatory measurements from the data set used for analysis.

Keywords: non-negative matrix factorization, PCA, source separation, plant-wide diagnosis

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571 The Effects of North Sea Caspian Pattern Index on the Temperature and Precipitation Regime in the Aegean Region of Turkey

Authors: Cenk Sezen, Turgay Partal

Abstract:

North Sea Caspian Pattern Index (NCP) refers to an atmospheric teleconnection between the North Sea and North Caspian at the 500 hPa geopotential height level. The aim of this study is to search for effects of NCP on annual and seasonal mean temperature and also annual and seasonal precipitation totals in the Aegean region of Turkey. The study contains the data that consist of 46 years obtained from nine meteorological stations. To determine the relationship between NCP and the climatic parameters, firstly the Pearson correlation coefficient method was utilized. According to the results of the analysis, most of the stations in the region have a high negative correlation NCPI in all seasons, especially in the winter season in terms of annual and seasonal mean temperature (statistically at significant at the 90% level). Besides, high negative correlation values between NCPI and precipitation totals are observed during the winter season at the most of stations. Furthermore, the NCPI values were divided into two group as NCPI(-) and NCPI(+), and then mean temperature and precipitation total values, which are grouped according to the NCP(-) and NCP(+) phases, were determined as annual and seasonal. During the NCPI(-), higher mean temperature values are observed in all of seasons, particularly in the winter season compared to the mean temperature values under effect of NCP(+). Similarly, during the NCPI(-) in winter season precipitation total values have higher than the precipitation total values under the effect of NCP(+); however, in other seasons there no substantial changes were observed between the precipitation total values. As a result of this study, significant proof is obtained with regards to the influences of NCP on the temperature and precipitation regime in the Aegean region of Turkey.

Keywords: Aegean Region, North Sea Caspian Pattern, precipitation, temperature.

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570 Battery Energy Storage System Economic Benefits Assessment on a Network Frequency Control

Authors: Kréhi Serge Agbli, Samuel Portebos, Michaël Salomon

Abstract:

Here a methodology is considered aiming at evaluating the economic benefit of the provision of a primary frequency control unit using a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS). In this methodology, two control types (basic and hysteresis) are implemented and the corresponding minimum energy storage system power allowing to maintain the frequency drop inside a given threshold under a given contingency is identified and compared using DigSilent’s PowerFactory software. Following this step, the corresponding energy storage capacity (in MWh) is calculated. As PowerFactory is dedicated to dynamic simulation for transient analysis, a first order model related to the IEEE 9 bus grid used for the analysis under PowerFactory is characterized and implemented on MATLAB-Simulink. Primary frequency control is simulated using the two control types over one-month grid's frequency deviation data on this Simulink model. This simulation results in the energy throughput both basic and hysteresis BESSs. It emerges that the 15 minutes operation band of the battery capacity allocated to frequency control is sufficient under the considered disturbances. A sensitivity analysis on the width of the control deadband is then performed for the two control types. The deadband width variation leads to an identical sizing with the hysteresis control showing a better frequency control at the cost of a higher delivered throughput compared to the basic control. An economic analysis comparing the cost of the sized BESS to the potential revenues is then performed.

Keywords: Battery Energy Storage System, electrical network frequency stability, frequency control unit, PowerFactory.

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569 Hydrological Modelling of Geological Behaviours in Environmental Planning for Urban Areas

Authors: Sheetal Sharma

Abstract:

Runoff,decreasing water levels and recharge in urban areas have been a complex issue now a days pointing defective urban design and increasing demography as cause. Very less has been discussed or analysed for water sensitive Urban Master Plans or local area plans. Land use planning deals with land transformation from natural areas into developed ones, which lead to changes in natural environment. Elaborated knowledge of relationship between the existing patterns of land use-land cover and recharge with respect to prevailing soil below is less as compared to speed of development. The parameters of incompatibility between urban functions and the functions of the natural environment are becoming various. Changes in land patterns due to built up, pavements, roads and similar land cover affects surface water flow seriously. It also changes permeability and absorption characteristics of the soil. Urban planners need to know natural processes along with modern means and best technologies available,as there is a huge gap between basic knowledge of natural processes and its requirement for balanced development planning leading to minimum impact on water recharge. The present paper analyzes the variations in land use land cover and their impacts on surface flows and sub-surface recharge in study area. The methodology adopted was to analyse the changes in land use and land cover using GIS and Civil 3d auto cad. The variations were used in  computer modeling using Storm-water Management Model to find out the runoff for various soil groups and resulting recharge observing water levels in POW data for last 40 years of the study area. Results were anlayzed again to find best correlations for sustainable recharge in urban areas.

Keywords: Geology, runoff, urban planning, land use-land cover.

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568 Performance Analysis of New Types of Reference Targets Based on Spaceborne and Airborne SAR Data

Authors: Y. S. Zhou, C. R. Li, L. L. Tang, C. X. Gao, D. J. Wang, Y. Y. Guo

Abstract:

Triangular trihedral corner reflector (CR) has been widely used as point target for synthetic aperture radar (SAR) calibration and image quality assessment. The additional “tip” of the triangular plate does not contribute to the reflector’s theoretical RCS and if it interacts with a perfectly reflecting ground plane, it will yield an increase of RCS at the radar bore-sight and decrease the accuracy of SAR calibration and image quality assessment. Regarding this problem, two types of CRs were manufactured. One was the hexagonal trihedral CR. It is a self-illuminating CR with relatively small plate edge length, while large edge length usually introduces unexpected edge diffraction error. The other was the triangular trihedral CR with extended bottom plate which considers the effect of ‘tip’ into the total RCS. In order to assess the performance of the two types of new CRs, flight campaign over the National Calibration and Validation Site for High Resolution Remote Sensors was carried out. Six hexagonal trihedral CRs and two bottom-extended trihedral CRs, as well as several traditional triangular trihedral CRs, were deployed. KOMPSAT-5 X-band SAR image was acquired for the performance analysis of the hexagonal trihedral CRs. C-band airborne SAR images were acquired for the performance analysis of the bottom-extended trihedral CRs. The analysis results showed that the impulse response function of both the hexagonal trihedral CRs and bottom-extended trihedral CRs were much closer to the ideal sinc-function than the traditional triangular trihedral CRs. The flight campaign results validated the advantages of new types of CRs and they might be useful in the future SAR calibration mission.

Keywords: Synthetic Aperture Radar, calibration, corner reflector, KOMPSAT-5.

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567 Perception of Neighbourhood-Level Built Environment in Relation to Youth Physical Activity in Malaysia

Authors: A. Abdullah, N. Faghih Mirzaei, S. Hany Haron

Abstract:

Neighbourhood environment walkability on reported physical activity (PA) levels of students of Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) in Malaysia. Compared with previous generations, today’s young people spend less time playing outdoors and have lower participation rates in PA. Research suggests that negative perceptions of neighbourhood walkability may be a potential barrier to adolescents’ PA. The sample consisted of 200 USM students (to 24 years old) who live outside of the main campus and engage in PA in sport halls and sport fields of USM. The data were analysed using the t-test, binary logistic regression, and discriminant analysis techniques. The present study found that youth PA was affected by neighbourhood environment walkability factors, including neighbourhood infrastructures, neighbourhood safety (crime), and recreation facilities, as well as street characteristics and neighbourhood design variables such as facades of sidewalks, roadside trees, green spaces, and aesthetics. The finding also illustrated that active students were influenced by street connectivity, neighbourhood infrastructures, recreation facilities, facades of sidewalks, and aesthetics, whereas students in the less active group were affected by access to destinations, neighbourhood safety (crime), and roadside trees and green spaces for their PAs. These results report which factors of built environments have more effect on youth PA and they message to the public to create more awareness about the benefits of PA on youth health.

Keywords: Fear of crime, neighbourhood built environment, physical activities, street characteristics design.

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566 Influence of Dilution and Lean-premixed on Mild Combustion in an Industrial Burner

Authors: Sh.Khalilarya, H.Oryani, S.Jafarmadar, H.Khatamnezhad, A.Nemati

Abstract:

Understanding of how and where NOx formation occurs in industrial burner is very important for efficient and clean operation of utility burners. Also the importance of this problem is mainly due to its relation to the pollutants produced by more burners used widely of gas turbine in thermal power plants and glass and steel industry. In this article, a numerical model of an industrial burner operating in MILD combustion is validated with experimental data.. Then influence of air flow rate and air temperature on combustor temperature profiles and NOX product are investigated. In order to modification this study reports on the effects of fuel and air dilution (with inert gases H2O, CO2, N2), and also influence of lean-premixed of fuel, on the temperature profiles and NOX emission. Conservation equations of mass, momentum and energy, and transport equations of species concentrations, turbulence, combustion and radiation modeling in addition to NO modeling equations were solved together to present temperature and NO distribution inside the burner. The results shows that dilution, cause to a reduction in value of temperature and NOX emission, and suppresses any flame propagation inside the furnace and made the flame inside the furnace invisible. Dilution with H2O rather than N2 and CO2 decreases further the value of the NOX. Also with raise of lean-premix level, local temperature of burner and the value of NOX product are decreases because of premixing prevents local “hot spots" within the combustor volume that can lead to significant NOx formation. Also leanpremixing of fuel with air cause to amount of air in reaction zone is reach more than amount that supplied as is actually needed to burn the fuel and this act lead to limiting NOx formation

Keywords: Mild combustion, Flameless, Numerical simulation, Burner, CFD.

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565 Evaluating Accuracy of Foetal Weight Estimation by Clinicians in Christian Medical College Hospital, India and Its Correlation to Actual Birth Weight: A Clinical Audit

Authors: Aarati Susan Mathew, Radhika Narendra Patel, Jiji Mathew

Abstract:

A retrospective study conducted at Christian Medical College (CMC) Teaching Hospital, Vellore, India on 14th August 2014 to assess the accuracy of clinically estimated foetal weight upon labour admission. Estimating foetal weight is a crucial factor in assessing maternal and foetal complications during and after labour. Medical notes of ninety-eight postnatal women who fulfilled the inclusion criteria were studied to evaluate the correlation between their recorded Estimated Foetal Weight (EFW) on admission and actual birth weight (ABW) of the newborn after delivery. Data concerning maternal and foetal demographics was also noted. Accuracy was determined by absolute percentage error and proportion of estimates within 10% of ABW. Actual birth weights ranged from 950-4080g. A strong positive correlation between EFW and ABW (r=0.904) was noted. Term deliveries (≥40 weeks) in the normal weight range (2500-4000g) had a 59.5% estimation accuracy (n=74) compared to pre-term (<40 weeks) with an estimation accuracy of 0% (n=2). Out of the term deliveries, macrosomic babies (>4000g) were underestimated by 25% (n=3) and low birthweight (LBW) babies were overestimated by 12.7% (n=9). Registrars who estimated foetal weight were accurate in babies within normal weight ranges. However, there needs to be an improvement in predicting weight of macrosomic and LBW foetuses. We have suggested the use of an amended version of the Johnson’s formula for the Indian population for improvement and a need to re-audit once implemented.

Keywords: Clinical palpation, estimated foetal weight, pregnancy, India, Johnson’s formula.

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564 Morphological Characteristics and Development of the Estuary Area of Lam River, Vietnam

Authors: Hai Nguyen Tien

Abstract:

On the basis of the structure of alluvial sediments explained by echo sounding data and remote sensing images, the following results can be given: The estuary of Lam river from Ben Thuy Bridge (original word: Bến Thủy) to Cua Hoi (original word: Cửa Hội) is divided into three channels (location is calculated according to the river bank on the Nghe An Province, original word: Nghệ An): i) channel I (from Ben Thuy Bridge to Hung Hoa, original word: Hưng Hòa) is the branching river; ii) channel II (from Hung Hoa to Nghi Thai, original word: Nghi Thái)is a channel develops in a meandering direction with a concave side toward Ha Tinh Province (Hà Tĩnh); iii) channel III (from Nghi Thai to Cua Hoi)is a channel develops in a meandering direction with a concave side toward Nghe An province.This estuary area is formed in the period from after the sea level dropped below 0m (current water level) to the present: i) Channel II developed moving towards Ha Tinh Province; ii) Channel III developed moving towards Nghe An Province; iii) In channel I, a second river branch is formed because the flow of river cuts through the Hong Lam- Hong Nhat mudflat (original word: Hồng Lam -Hồng Nhất),at the same time creating an island.Morphological characteristics of the estuary area of Lam River are the main result of erosion and deposition activities corresponding to two water levels: the water level is about 2 m lower than the current water level and the current water level.Characteristics of the sediment layers on the riverbed in the estuary can be used to determine the sea levels in Late Holocene to the present.

Keywords: Lam River, development, Cua Hoi, river morphology

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563 Stature Estimation Using Foot and Shoeprint Length of Malaysian Population

Authors: M. Khairulmazidah, A. B. Nurul Nadiah, A. R. Rumiza

Abstract:

Formulation of biological profile is one of the modern roles of forensic anthropologist. The present study was conducted to estimate height using foot and shoeprint length of Malaysian population. The present work can be very useful information in the process of identification of individual in forensic cases based on shoeprint evidence. It can help to narrow down suspects and ease the police investigation. Besides, stature is important parameters in determining the partial identify of unidentified and mutilated bodies. Thus, this study can help the problem encountered in cases of mass disaster, massacre, explosions and assault cases. This is because it is very hard to identify parts of bodies in these cases where people are dismembered and become unrecognizable. Samples in this research were collected from 200 Malaysian adults (100 males and 100 females) with age ranging from 20 to 45 years old. In this research, shoeprint length were measured based on the print of the shoes made from the flat shoes. Other information like gender, foot length and height of subject were also recorded. The data was analyzed using IBM® SPSS Statistics 19 software. Results indicated that, foot length has a strong correlation with stature than shoeprint length for both sides of the feet. However, in the unknown, where the gender was undetermined have shown a better correlation in foot length and shoeprint length parameter compared to males and females analyzed separately. In addition, prediction equations are developed to estimate the stature using linear regression analysis of foot length and shoeprint length. However, foot lengths give better prediction than shoeprint length. 

Keywords: Forensic anthropology, foot length, shoeprints, stature estimation.

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562 The Effect of Cow Reproductive Traits on Lifetime Productivity and Longevity

Authors: Lāsma Cielava, Daina Jonkus, Līga Paura

Abstract:

The age of first calving (AFC) is one of the most important factors that have a significant impact on cow productivity in different lactations and its whole life. A belated AFC leads to reduced reproductive performance and it is one of the main reasons for reduced longevity. Cows that calved in time period from 2001-2007 and in this time finished at least four lactations were included in the database. Data were obtained from 68841 crossbred Holstein Black and White (HM), crossbred Latvian Brown (LB), and Latvian Brown genetic resources (LBGR) cows. Cows were distributed in four groups depending on age at first calving. The longest lifespan was conducted for LBGR cows, but they were also characterized with lowest lifetime milk yield and life day milk yield. HM breed cows had the shortest lifespan, but in the lifespan of 2862.2 days was obtained in average 37916.4 kg milk accordingly 13.2 kg milk in one life day. HM breed cows were also characterized with longer calving intervals (CI) in first four lactations, but LBGR cows had the shortest CI in the study group. Age at first calving significantly affected the length of CI in different lactations (p<0.05). HM cows that first time calved >30 months old in the fourth lactation had the longest CI in all study groups (421.4 days). The LBGR cows were characterized with the shortest CI, but there was slight increase in second and third lactation. Age at first calving had a significant impact on cows’ age in each calving time. In the analysis, cow group was conducted that cows with age at first calving <24 months or in average 580.5 days at the time of fifth calving were 2156.7 days (5.9 years) old, but cows with age at first calving >30 months (932.6 days) at the time of fifth calving were 2560.9 days (7.3 years) old.

Keywords: Age at first calving, calving interval, longevity, milk yield.

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561 Biodiversity and Climate Change: Consequences for Norway Spruce Mountain Forests in Slovakia

Authors: Jozef Mindas, Jaroslav Skvarenina, Jana Skvareninova

Abstract:

Study of the effects of climate change on Norway Spruce (Picea abies) forests has mainly focused on the diversity of tree species diversity of tree species as a result of the ability of species to tolerate temperature and moisture changes as well as some effects of disturbance regime changes. The tree species’ diversity changes in spruce forests due to climate change have been analyzed via gap model. Forest gap model is a dynamic model for calculation basic characteristics of individual forest trees. Input ecological data for model calculations have been taken from the permanent research plots located in primeval forests in mountainous regions in Slovakia. The results of regional scenarios of the climatic change for the territory of Slovakia have been used, from which the values are according to the CGCM3.1 (global) model, KNMI and MPI (regional) models. Model results for conditions of the climate change scenarios suggest a shift of the upper forest limit to the region of the present subalpine zone, in supramontane zone. N. spruce representation will decrease at the expense of beech and precious broadleaved species (Acer sp., Sorbus sp., Fraxinus sp.). The most significant tree species diversity changes have been identified for the upper tree line and current belt of dwarf pine (Pinus mugo) occurrence. The results have been also discussed in relation to most important disturbances (wind storms, snow and ice storms) and phenological changes which consequences are little known. Special discussion is focused on biomass production changes in relation to carbon storage diversity in different carbon pools.

Keywords: Biodiversity, climate change, Norway spruce forests, gap model.

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560 An Autonomous Collaborative Forecasting System Implementation – The First Step towards Successful CPFR System

Authors: Chi-Fang Huang, Yun-Shiow Chen, Yun-Kung Chung

Abstract:

In the past decade, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been regarded as an instrument for problem-solving and decision-making; indeed, they have already done with a substantial efficiency and effectiveness improvement in industries and businesses. In this paper, the Back-Propagation neural Networks (BPNs) will be modulated to demonstrate the performance of the collaborative forecasting (CF) function of a Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR®) system. CPFR functions the balance between the sufficient product supply and the necessary customer demand in a Supply and Demand Chain (SDC). Several classical standard BPN will be grouped, collaborated and exploited for the easy implementation of the proposed modular ANN framework based on the topology of a SDC. Each individual BPN is applied as a modular tool to perform the task of forecasting SKUs (Stock-Keeping Units) levels that are managed and supervised at a POS (point of sale), a wholesaler, and a manufacturer in an SDC. The proposed modular BPN-based CF system will be exemplified and experimentally verified using lots of datasets of the simulated SDC. The experimental results showed that a complex CF problem can be divided into a group of simpler sub-problems based on the single independent trading partners distributed over SDC, and its SKU forecasting accuracy was satisfied when the system forecasted values compared to the original simulated SDC data. The primary task of implementing an autonomous CF involves the study of supervised ANN learning methodology which aims at making “knowledgeable" decision for the best SKU sales plan and stocks management.

Keywords: CPFR, artificial neural networks, global logistics, supply and demand chain.

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559 Social Security Reform and Management: The Case of Three Member Territories of the Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States

Authors: Cleopatra Gittens

Abstract:

It has been recognized that some social security and national insurance systems in the Eastern Caribbean are experiencing ageing populations and economic and other crises that will present a financial challenge of being unable to pay pension benefits in fifteen to twenty years. This has implications for the fiscal and economic positions of the countries themselves. Hence, organizations would need to address the issue urgently. The study adds to the body of knowledge on social security systems and social security reforms in Small Island Developing States (SIDS). It also makes recommendations for the types of reforms that social security systems in other SIDS can implement given their special circumstances. Secondary research is used to gather financial and other related information on three social security schemes in the Eastern Caribbean. Actuarial and financial reports and other documents of the social security systems are analysed to obtain financial and static data on each of the schemes. The findings show that the three schemes studied are experiencing steady increases in benefit expenditure versus contributions and increasing pensioner to insured ratios. The schemes will deplete their reserves between 2038 and 2050. Two of the schemes have increased their retirement age while the other has not embarked on any reforms. One scheme has made changes to its contribution percentages. Due to their small size, small populations and other unique circumstances, the social security schemes in the identified territories are not likely to be able to take advantage of all of the reform initiatives that the developed world embarked on when faced with similar problems. These schemes will need to make incremental changes that align with the timeframes recommended by the actuarial studies.

Keywords: Pension benefits, pension, Small Island Developing States, Social Security Reform.

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558 Improved Rake Receiver Based On the Signal Sign Separation in Maximal Ratio Combining Technique for Ultra-Wideband Wireless Communication Systems

Authors: Rashid A. Fayadh, F. Malek, Hilal A. Fadhil, Norshafinash Saudin

Abstract:

At receiving high data rate in ultra wideband (UWB) technology for many users, there are multiple user interference and inter-symbol interference as obstacles in the multi-path reception technique. Since the rake receivers were designed to collect many resolvable paths, even more than hundred of paths. Rake receiver implementation structures have been proposed towards increasing the complexity for getting better performances in indoor or outdoor multi-path receivers by reducing the bit error rate (BER). So several rake structures were proposed in the past to reduce the number of combining and estimating of resolvable paths. To this aim, we suggested two improved rake receivers based on signal sign separation in the maximal ratio combiner (MRC), called positive-negative MRC selective rake (P-N/MRC-S-rake) and positive-negative MRC partial rake (P-N/MRC-S-rake) receivers. These receivers were introduced to reduce the complexity with less number of fingers and improving the performance with low BER. Before decision circuit, there is a comparator to compare between positive quantity and negative quantity to decide whether the transmitted bit is 1 or 0. The BER was driven by MATLAB simulation with multi-path environments for impulse radio time-hopping binary phase shift keying (TH-BPSK) modulation and the results were compared with those of conventional rake receivers.

Keywords: Selective and partial rake receivers, positive and negative signal separation, maximal ratio combiner, bit error rate performance.

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557 Reducing CO2 Emission Using EDA and Weighted Sum Model in Smart Parking System

Authors: Rahman Ali, Muhammad Sajjad, Farkhund Iqbal, Muhammad Sadiq Hassan Zada, Mohammed Hussain

Abstract:

Emission of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) has adversely affected the environment. One of the major sources of CO2 emission is transportation. In the last few decades, the increase in mobility of people using vehicles has enormously increased the emission of CO2 in the environment. To reduce CO2 emission, sustainable transportation system is required in which smart parking is one of the important measures that need to be established. To contribute to the issue of reducing the amount of CO2 emission, this research proposes a smart parking system. A cloud-based solution is provided to the drivers which automatically searches and recommends the most preferred parking slots. To determine preferences of the parking areas, this methodology exploits a number of unique parking features which ultimately results in the selection of a parking that leads to minimum level of CO2 emission from the current position of the vehicle. To realize the methodology, a scenario-based implementation is considered. During the implementation, a mobile application with GPS signals, vehicles with a number of vehicle features and a list of parking areas with parking features are used by sorting, multi-level filtering, exploratory data analysis (EDA, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)) and weighted sum model (WSM) to rank the parking areas and recommend the drivers with top-k most preferred parking areas. In the EDA process, “2020testcar-2020-03-03”, a freely available dataset is used to estimate CO2 emission of a particular vehicle. To evaluate the system, results of the proposed system are compared with the conventional approach, which reveal that the proposed methodology supersedes the conventional one in reducing the emission of CO2 into the atmosphere.

Keywords: CO2 emission, IoT, EDA, Weighted Sum Model, WSM, regression, smart parking system.

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556 Analysis of Supply Side Factors Affecting Bank Financing of Non-Oil Exports in Nigeria

Authors: Sama’ila Idi Ningi, Abubakar Yusuf Dutse

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The banking sector poses a lot of problems in Nigeria in general and the non-oil export sector in particular. The banks' lack effectiveness in handling small, medium or long-term credit risk (lack of training of loan officers, lack of information on borrowers and absence of a reliable credit registry) results in non-oil exporters being burdened with high requirements, such as up to three years of financial statements, enough collateral to cover both the loan principal and interest (including a cash deposit that may be up to 30% of the loans' net present value), and to provide every detail of the international trade transaction in question. The stated problems triggered this research. Consequently, information on bank financing of non-oil exports was collected from 100 respondents from the 20 Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) in Nigeria. The data was analysed by the use of descriptive statistics correlation and regression. It is found that, Nigerian banks are participants in the financing of non-oil exports. Despite their participation, the rate of interest for credit extended to non-oil export is usually high, ranging between 15-20%. Small and medium sized non-oil export businesses lack the credit history for banks to judge them as reputable. Banks also consider the non-oil export sector very risky for investment. The banks actually do grant less credit than the exporters may require and therefore are not properly funded by banks. Banks grant very low volume of foreign currency loan in addition to, unfavorable exchange rate at which Naira is exchanged to the Dollar and other currencies in the country. This makes importation of inputs costly and negatively impacted on the non-oil export performance in Nigeria.

Keywords: Supply Side Factors, Bank Financing, Non-Oil Exports.

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555 Analysis of Cost Estimation and Payment Systems for Consultant Contracts in the US, Japan, China and the UK

Authors: Shih-Hsu Wang, Yuan-Yuan Cheng, Ming-Tsung Lee, Wei-Chih Wang

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Determining reasonable fees is the main objective of designing the cost estimation and payment systems for consultant contracts. However, project clients utilize different cost estimation and payment systems because of their varying views on the reasonableness of consultant fees. This study reviews the cost estimation and payment systems of consultant contracts for five countries, including the US (Washington State Department of Transportation), Japan (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism), China (Engineering Design Charging Standard) and UK (Her Majesty's Treasure). Specifically, this work investigates the budgeting process, contractor selection method, contractual price negotiation process, cost review, and cost-control concept of the systems used in these countries. The main finding indicates that that project client-s view on whether the fee is high will affect the way he controls it. In the US, the fee is commonly considered to be high. As a result, stringent auditing system (low flexibility given to the consultant) is then applied. In the UK, the fee is viewed to be low by comparing it to the total life-cycle project cost. Thus, a system that has high flexibility in budgeting and cost reviewing is given to the consultant. In terms of the flexibility allowed for the consultant, the systems applied in Japan and China fall between those of the US and UK. Both the US and UK systems are helpful in determining a reasonable fee. However, in the US system, rigid auditing standards must be established and additional cost-audit manpower is required. In the UK system, sufficient historical cost data should be needed to evaluate the reasonableness of the consultant-s proposed fee

Keywords: Consultant Services, Cost Estimation and Payment System, Payment Flexibility, Cost-control Concept

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554 Online Information Seeking: A Review of the Literature in the Health Domain

Authors: Sharifah Sumayyah Engku Alwi, Masrah Azrifah Azmi Murad

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The development of the information technology and Internet has been transforming the healthcare industry. The internet is continuously accessed to seek for health information and there are variety of sources, including search engines, health websites, and social networking sites. Providing more and better information on health may empower individuals, however, ensuring a high quality and trusted health information could pose a challenge. Moreover, there is an ever-increasing amount of information available, but they are not necessarily accurate and up to date. Thus, this paper aims to provide an insight of the models and frameworks related to online health information seeking of consumers. It begins by exploring the definition of information behavior and information seeking to provide a better understanding of the concept of information seeking. In this study, critical factors such as performance expectancy, effort expectancy, and social influence will be studied in relation to the value of seeking health information. It also aims to analyze the effect of age, gender, and health status as the moderator on the factors that influence online health information seeking, i.e. trust and information quality. A preliminary survey will be carried out among the health professionals to clarify the research problems which exist in the real world, at the same time producing a conceptual framework. A final survey will be distributed to five states of Malaysia, to solicit the feedback on the framework. Data will be analyzed using SPSS and SmartPLS 3.0 analysis tools. It is hoped that at the end of this study, a novel framework that can improve online health information seeking is developed. Finally, this paper concludes with some suggestions on the models and frameworks that could improve online health information seeking.

Keywords: Information behavior, information seeking, online health information, technology acceptance model, the theory of planned behavior, UTAUT.

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553 Liquid Chromatography Microfluidics for Detection and Quantification of Urine Albumin Using Linear Regression Method

Authors: Patricia B. Cruz, Catrina Jean G. Valenzuela, Analyn N. Yumang

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Nearly a hundred per million of the Filipino population is diagnosed with Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD). The early stage of CKD has no symptoms and can only be discovered once the patient undergoes urinalysis. Over the years, different methods were discovered and used for the quantification of the urinary albumin such as the immunochemical assays where most of these methods require large machinery that has a high cost in maintenance and resources, and a dipstick test which is yet to be proven and is still debated as a reliable method in detecting early stages of microalbuminuria. This research study involves the use of the liquid chromatography concept in microfluidic instruments with biosensor as a means of separation and detection respectively, and linear regression to quantify human urinary albumin. The researchers’ main objective was to create a miniature system that quantifies and detect patients’ urinary albumin while reducing the amount of volume used per five test samples. For this study, 30 urine samples of unknown albumin concentrations were tested using VITROS Analyzer and the microfluidic system for comparison. Based on the data shared by both methods, the actual vs. predicted regression were able to create a positive linear relationship with an R2 of 0.9995 and a linear equation of y = 1.09x + 0.07, indicating that the predicted values and actual values are approximately equal. Furthermore, the microfluidic instrument uses 75% less in total volume – sample and reagents combined, compared to the VITROS Analyzer per five test samples.

Keywords: Chronic kidney disease, microfluidics, linear regression, VITROS analyzer, urinary albumin.

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552 Statistical Analysis and Impact Forecasting of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles on the Environment: Case Study in the State of Maryland

Authors: Alireza Ansariyar, Safieh Laaly

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Over the last decades, the vehicle industry has shown increased interest in integrating autonomous, connected, and electrical technologies in vehicle design with the primary hope of improving mobility and road safety while reducing transportation’s environmental impact. Using the State of Maryland (M.D.) in the United States as a pilot study, this research investigates Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) fuel consumption and air pollutants including Carbon Monoxide (CO), Particulate Matter (PM), and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) and utilizes meaningful linear regression models to predict CAV’s environmental effects. Maryland transportation network was simulated in VISUM software, and data on a set of variables were collected through a comprehensive survey. The number of pollutants and fuel consumption were obtained for the time interval 2010 to 2021 from the macro simulation. Eventually, four linear regression models were proposed to predict the amount of C.O., NOx, PM pollutants, and fuel consumption in the future. The results highlighted that CAVs’ pollutants and fuel consumption have a significant correlation with the income, age, and race of the CAV customers. Furthermore, the reliability of four statistical models was compared with the reliability of macro simulation model outputs in the year 2030. The error of three pollutants and fuel consumption was obtained at less than 9% by statistical models in SPSS. This study is expected to assist researchers and policymakers with planning decisions to reduce CAV environmental impacts in M.D.

Keywords: Connected and autonomous vehicles, statistical model, environmental effects, pollutants and fuel consumption, VISUM, linear regression models.

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551 The Effects of Pilates and McKenzie Exercises on Quality of Life and Lumbar Spine Position Sense in Patients with Low Back Pain: A Comparative Study with a 4-Week Follow-Up

Authors: Vahid Mazloum, Mansour Sahebozamani, Amirhossein Barati, Nouzar Nakhaee, Pouya Rabiei

Abstract:

Non-specific chronic low back pain (NSCLBP) is a common condition with no exact diagnosis and mechanism for its occurrence. Recently, different therapeutic exercises have taken into account to manage NSCLBP. So, the aim of this study has mainly been placed on comparing the effects of Pilates and Mackenzie exercises on quality of life (QOL) lumbar spine position sense (LSPS) in patients with NSCLBP. In this randomized clinical trial, 47 patients with NSCLBP were voluntarily divided into three groups of Pilates (n=16) (with mean age 37.1 ± 9.5 years, height 168.9 ± 7.4 cm, body mass 76.1 ± 5.9 k), McKenzie (n=15) (with mean age 42.7 ± 8.1 years, height 165.7 ± 6.8, body mass 74.1 ± 4.8 kg) and control (n=16) (with mean age 39.3 ± 9.8 years, height 168.1 ± 8.1 cm, body mass 74.2 ± 5.8 kg). Primary outcome included QOL and secondary was LSPS. Both variables were assessed by the WHOQOL-BREF questionnaires and electrogoniameter, respectively. The measurements were performed at baseline, following a 6-week intervention, and after a 4-week follow-up. The ANCOVA test at P < 0.05 was administrated to analyze the collected data using SPSS software. There was a statistically significant difference between experimental groups and the control group to improve QOL. But, no difference was seen regarding the effects of two exercises on LSPS (p < 0.05). Both Pilates and Mackenzie exercises demonstrated improvement in QOL after 6-week intervention and a 4-week follow-up while none of them considerably affected LSPS. Further studies are required to establish a supporting evidence for the effectiveness of two exercises on NSCLBP.

Keywords: Pilates, Mackenzie, proprioception, low back pain, physical health.

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550 Perceptions of Climate Change Risk to Forest Ecosystems: A Case Study of Patale Community Forestry User Group, Nepal

Authors: N. R. P Withana, E. Auch

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to investigate perceptions of climate change risk to forest ecosystems and forestbased communities as well as perceived effectiveness of adaptation strategies for climate change as well as challenges for adaptation. Data was gathered using a pre-tested semi-structured questionnaire. Simple random selection technique was applied. For the majority of issues, the responses were obtained on multi-point likert scales, and the scores provided were, in turn, used to estimate the means and other useful estimates. A composite knowledge index developed using correct responses to a set of self-rated statements were used to evaluate the issues. The mean of the knowledge index was 0.64. Also all respondents recorded values of the knowledge index above 0.25. Increase forest fire was perceived by respondents as the greatest risk to forest eco-system. Decrease access to water supplies was perceived as the greatest risk to livelihoods of forest based communities. The most effective adaptation strategy relevant to climate change risks to forest eco-systems and forest based communities livelihoods in Kathmandu valley in Nepal as perceived by the respondents was reforestation and afforestation. As well, lack of public awareness was perceived as the major limitation for climate change adaptation. However, perceived risks as well as effective adaptation strategies showed an inconsistent association with knowledge indicators and social-cultural variables. The results provide useful information to any party who involve with climate change issues in Nepal, since such attempts would be more effective once the people’s perceptions on these aspects are taken into account.

Keywords: Climate change, forest ecosystems, forest-based communities, risk perceptions.

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549 Increasing Sustainability Using the Potential of Urban Rivers in Developing Countries with a Biophilic Design Approach

Authors: Mohammad Reza Mohammadian, Dariush Sattarzadeh, Mir Mohammad Javad Poor Hadi Hosseini

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Population growth, urban development and urban buildup have disturbed the balance between the nature and the city, and so leading to the loss of quality of sustainability of proximity to rivers. While in the past, the sides of urban rivers were considered as urban green space. Urban rivers and their sides that have environmental, social and economic values are important to achieve sustainable development. So far, efforts have been made at various scales in various cities around the world to revitalize these areas. On the other hand, biophilic design is an innovative design approach in which attention to natural details and relation to nature is a fundamental concept. The purpose of this study is to provide an integrated framework of urban design using the potential of urban rivers (in order to increase sustainability) with a biophilic design approach to be used in cities in developing countries. The methodology of the research is based on the collection of data and information from research and projects including a study on biophilic design, investigations and projects related to the urban rivers, and a review of the literature on sustainable urban development. Then studying the boundary of urban rivers is completed by examining case samples. Eventually, integrated framework of urban design, to design the boundaries of urban rivers in the cities of developing countries is presented regarding the factors affecting the design of these areas. The result shows that according to this framework, the potential of the river banks is utilized to increase not only the environmental sustainability but also social, economic and physical stability with regard to water, light, and the usage of indigenous materials, etc.

Keywords: Urban rivers, biophilic design, urban sustainability, nature.

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548 Parallel Pipelined Conjugate Gradient Algorithm on Heterogeneous Platforms

Authors: Sergey Kopysov, Nikita Nedozhogin, Leonid Tonkov

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The article presents a parallel iterative solver for large sparse linear systems which can be used on a heterogeneous platform. Traditionally, the problem of solving linear systems do not scale well on cluster containing multiple Central Processing Units (multi-CPUs cluster) or cluster containing multiple Graphics Processing Units (multi-GPUs cluster). For example, most of the attempts to implement the classical conjugate gradient method were at best counted in the same amount of time as the problem was enlarged. The paper proposes the pipelined variant of the conjugate gradient method (PCG), a formulation that is potentially better suited for hybrid CPU/GPU computing since it requires only one synchronization point per one iteration, instead of two for standard CG (Conjugate Gradient). The standard and pipelined CG methods need the vector entries generated by current GPU and other GPUs for matrix-vector product. So the communication between GPUs becomes a major performance bottleneck on miltiGPU cluster. The article presents an approach to minimize the communications between parallel parts of algorithms. Additionally, computation and communication can be overlapped to reduce the impact of data exchange. Using pipelined version of the CG method with one synchronization point, the possibility of asynchronous calculations and communications, load balancing between the CPU and GPU for solving the large linear systems allows for scalability. The algorithm is implemented with the combined use of technologies: MPI, OpenMP and CUDA. We show that almost optimum speed up on 8-CPU/2GPU may be reached (relatively to a one GPU execution). The parallelized solver achieves a speedup of up to 5.49 times on 16 NVIDIA Tesla GPUs, as compared to one GPU.

Keywords: Conjugate Gradient, GPU, parallel programming, pipelined algorithm.

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547 Early Depression Detection for Young Adults with a Psychiatric and AI Interdisciplinary Multimodal Framework

Authors: Raymond Xu, Ashley Hua, Andrew Wang, Yuru Lin

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During COVID-19, the depression rate has increased dramatically. Young adults are most vulnerable to the mental health effects of the pandemic. Lower-income families have a higher ratio to be diagnosed with depression than the general population, but less access to clinics. This research aims to achieve early depression detection at low cost, large scale, and high accuracy with an interdisciplinary approach by incorporating clinical practices defined by American Psychiatric Association (APA) as well as multimodal AI framework. The proposed approach detected the nine depression symptoms with Natural Language Processing sentiment analysis and a symptom-based Lexicon uniquely designed for young adults. The experiments were conducted on the multimedia survey results from adolescents and young adults and unbiased Twitter communications. The result was further aggregated with the facial emotional cues analyzed by the Convolutional Neural Network on the multimedia survey videos. Five experiments each conducted on 10k data entries reached consistent results with an average accuracy of 88.31%, higher than the existing natural language analysis models. This approach can reach 300+ million daily active Twitter users and is highly accessible by low-income populations to promote early depression detection to raise awareness in adolescents and young adults and reveal complementary cues to assist clinical depression diagnosis.

Keywords: Artificial intelligence, depression detection, facial emotion recognition, natural language processing, mental disorder.

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546 Hybrid Methods for Optimisation of Weights in Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation Decision for Fire Risk and Hazard

Authors: I. Yakubu, D. Mireku-Gyimah, D. Asafo-Adjei

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The challenge for everyone involved in preserving the ecosystem is to find creative ways to protect and restore the remaining ecosystems while accommodating and enhancing the country social and economic well-being. Frequent fires of anthropogenic origin have been affecting the ecosystems in many countries adversely. Hence adopting ways of decision making such as Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) is appropriate since it will enhance the evaluation and analysis of fire risk and hazard of the ecosystem. In this paper, fire risk and hazard data from the West Gonja area of Ghana were used in some of the methods (Analytical Hierarchy Process, Compromise Programming, and Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) for MCDM evaluation and analysis to determine the optimal weight method for fire risk and hazard. Ranking of the land cover types was carried out using; Fire Hazard, Fire Fighting Capacity and Response Risk Criteria. Pairwise comparison under Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to determine the weight of the various criteria. Weights for sub-criteria were also obtained by the pairwise comparison method. The results were optimised using GRA and Compromise Programming (CP). The results from each method, hybrid GRA and CP, were compared and it was established that all methods were satisfactory in terms of optimisation of weight. The most optimal method for spatial multicriteria evaluation was the hybrid GRA method. Thus, a hybrid AHP and GRA method is more effective method for ranking alternatives in MCDM than the hybrid AHP and CP method.

Keywords: Compromise programming, grey relational analysis, spatial multi-criteria, weight optimisation.

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545 Conservation Agriculture Practice in Bangladesh: Farmers’ Socioeconomic Status and Soil Environment Perspective

Authors: Mohammad T. Uddin, Aurup R. Dhar

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The study was conducted to assess the impact of conservation agriculture practice on farmers’ socioeconomic condition and soil environmental quality in Bangladesh. A total of 450 (i.e., 50 focal, 150 proximal and 250 control) farmers from five districts were selected for this study. Descriptive statistics like sum, averages, percentages, etc. were calculated to evaluate the socioeconomic data. Using Enyedi’s crop productivity index, it was found that the crop productivity of focal, proximal and control farmers was increased by 0.9, 1.2 and 1.3 percent, respectively. The result of DID (Difference-in-difference) analysis indicated that the impact of conservation agriculture practice on farmers’ average annual income was significant. Multidimensional poverty index (MPI) indicates that poverty in terms of deprivation of health, education and living standards was decreased; and a remarkable improvement in farmers’ socioeconomic status was found after adopting conservation agriculture practice. Most of the focal and proximal farmers stated about increased soil environmental condition where majority of control farmers stated about constant environmental condition in this regard. The Probit model reveals that minimum tillage operation, permanent organic soil cover, and application of compost and vermicompost were found significant factors affecting soil environmental quality under conservation agriculture. Input support, motivation, training programmes and extension services are recommended to implement in order to raise the awareness and enrich the knowledge of the farmers on conservation agriculture practice.

Keywords: Conservation agriculture, crop productivity, socioeconomic status, soil environment quality.

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544 Strategy in Controlling Rice-Field Conversion in Pangkep Regency, South Sulawesi, Indonesia

Authors: Nurliani, Ida Rosada

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The national rice consumption keeps increasing along with raising income of the households and the rapid growth of population. However, food availability, particularly rice, is limited. Impacts of rice-field conversion have run cumulatively, as we can see on potential losses of rice and crops production, as well as work opportunity that keeps increasing year-by-year. Therefore, it requires policy recommendation to control rice-field conversion through economic, social, and ecological approaches. The research was a survey method intended to: (1) Identify internal factors; quality and productivity of the land as the cause of land conversion, (2) Identify external factors of land conversion, value of the rice-field and the competitor’s land, workforce absorption, and regulation, as well as (3) Formulate strategies in controlling rice-field conversion. Population of the research was farmers who applied land conversion at Pangkep Regency, South Sulawesi. Samples were determined using the incidental sampling method. Data analysis used productivity analysis, land quality analysis, total economic value analysis, and SWOT analysis. Results of the research showed that the quality of rice-field was low as well as productivity of the grains (unhulled-rice). So that, average productivity of the grains and quality of rice-field were low as well. Total economic value of rice-field was lower than the economic value of the embankment. Workforce absorption value on rice-field was higher than on the embankment. Strategies in controlling such rice-field conversion can be done by increasing rice-field productivity, improving land quality, applying cultivation technique of specific location, improving the irrigation lines, and socializing regulation and sanction about the transfer of land use.

Keywords: Land conversion, quality of rice-field, land economic value, strategy in controlling.

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543 Building Information Modelling for Construction Delay Management

Authors: Essa Alenazi, Zulfikar Adamu

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The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is not an exception in relying on the growth of its construction industry to support rapid population growth. However, its need for infrastructure development is constrained by low productivity levels and cost overruns caused by factors such as delays to project completion. Delays in delivering a construction project are a global issue and while theories such as Optimism Bias have been used to explain such delays, in KSA, client-related causes of delays are also significant. The objective of this paper is to develop a framework-based approach to explore how the country’s construction industry can manage and reduce delays in construction projects through building information modelling (BIM) in order to mitigate the cost consequences of such delays.  It comprehensively and systematically reviewed the global literature on the subject and identified gaps, critical delay factors and the specific benefits that BIM can deliver for the delay management.  A case study comprising of nine hospital projects that have experienced delay and cost overruns was also carried out. Five critical delay factors related to the clients were identified as candidates that can be mitigated through BIM’s benefits. These factors are: Ineffective planning and scheduling of the project; changes during construction by the client; delay in progress payment; slowness in decision making by the client; and poor communication between clients and other stakeholders. In addition, data from the case study projects strongly suggest that optimism bias is present in many of the hospital projects. Further validation via key stakeholder interviews and documentations are planned.

Keywords: BIM, client perspective, delay management, optimism bias, public sector projects.

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