Search results for: Hybrid uncertainty

Authors: Aline Alves Bandeira, Maria Cecília de Paula Silva

Abstract:

The existing legal gap regarding thes treatment and final disposal of industrial effluents in Brazil promotes legal uncertainty. The government has not structured itself to guarantee environmental protection. The current legal system and public policies must guarantee the protection of bodies of water and an effective treatment of industrial effluents. This is because economic progress, eco-efficiency and industrial ecology are inseparable. The lack of protection for the water bodies weakens environmental protection, with abuses by companies that do not give due treatment to their effluents, or fail to present the water balance of their factories. It is considered necessary to enact a specific law on industrial effluents related to a National Industrial Effluent Policy, because it is the location of the largest Integrated Industrial Complex in the Southern Hemisphere. The regulation of this subject cannot be limited by decrees of the local Executive Branch, allowing the inspection of the industrial activity or enterprise to be affected fundamentally by environmental self-control, or by private institutions.

Keywords: Effluent policy, environmental law, environmental management, industrial effluents.

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Authors: Oh Hyeon Jeon, WooYoung Jung

Abstract:

In this study, seepage analysis was performed by the level difference between upstream and downstream of weir structure for safety evaluation of weir structure against flooding. Monte Carlo Simulation method was employed by considering the probability distribution of the adjacent ground parameter, i.e., permeability coefficient of weir structure. Moreover, by using a commercially available finite element program (ABAQUS), modeling of the weir structure is carried out. Based on this model, the characteristic of water seepage during flooding was determined at each water level with consideration of the uncertainty of their corresponding permeability coefficient. Subsequently, fragility function could be constructed based on this response from numerical analysis; this fragility function results could be used to determine the weakness of weir structure subjected to flooding disaster. They can also be used as a reference data that can comprehensively predict the probability of failur,e and the degree of damage of a weir structure.

Keywords: Weir structure, seepage, flood disaster fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, Monte-Carlo Simulation, permeability coefficient.

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Authors: Holger Keitel

Abstract:

The prediction of long-term deformations of concrete and reinforced concrete structures has been a field of extensive research and several different creep models have been developed so far. Most of the models were developed for constant concrete stresses, thus, in case of varying stresses a specific superposition principle or time-integration, respectively, is necessary. Nowadays, when modeling concrete creep the engineering focus is rather on the application of sophisticated time-integration methods than choosing the more appropriate creep model. For this reason, this paper presents a method to quantify the uncertainties of creep prediction originating from the selection of creep models or from the time-integration methods. By adapting variance based global sensitivity analysis, a methodology is developed to quantify the influence of creep model selection or choice of time-integration method. Applying the developed method, general recommendations how to model creep behavior for varying stresses are given.

Keywords: Concrete creep models, time-integration methods, sensitivity analysis, prediction uncertainty.

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

Abstract:

The fatigue crack growth is stochastic because of the fatigue behavior having an uncertainty and a randomness. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the probability distribution of a grown crack size at a specific fatigue crack propagation life for maintenance of structure as well as reliability estimation. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the grown crack size at a specified fatigue life in a rolled magnesium alloy under different specimen thickness conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments are carried out in laboratory air under three conditions of specimen thickness using AZ31 to investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior. The goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of a grown crack size under different specimen thickness conditions is performed by Anderson-Darling test. The effect of a specimen thickness on variability of a grown crack size is also investigated.

Keywords: Crack size, Fatigue crack propagation, Magnesium alloys, Probability distribution, Specimen thickness.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This paper investigates the application of the determinate fuzzy preference programming method for a more nuanced and comprehensive evaluation of stealth aircraft. Traditional methods often struggle to incorporate subjective factors and uncertainties inherent in complex systems like stealth aircraft. Determinate fuzzy preference programming addresses this limitation by leveraging the strengths of determinate fuzzy sets. The proposed novel multiple criteria decision-making algorithm integrates these concepts to consider aspects and criteria influencing aircraft performance. This approach aims to provide a more holistic assessment by enabling decision-makers to observe positive and negative outranking flows simultaneously. By demonstrating the validity and effectiveness of this approach through a practical example of selecting a stealth aircraft, this paper aims to establish the determinate fuzzy preference programming method as a valuable tool for informed decision-making in this critical domain.

Keywords: Determinate fuzzy set, stealth aircraft selection, distance function, decision making, uncertainty, preference programming. MCDM

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Authors: F. Allag, S. Bouharati, M. Belmahdi, R. Zegadi

Abstract:

The rapid expansion of deserts in recent decades as a result of human actions combined with climatic changes has highlighted the necessity to understand biological processes in arid environments. Whereas physical processes and the biology of flora and fauna have been relatively well studied in marginally used arid areas, knowledge of desert soil micro-organisms remains fragmentary. The objective of this study is to conduct a diversity analysis of bacterial communities in unvegetated arid soils. Several biological phenomena in hot deserts related to microbial populations and the potential use of micro-organisms for restoring hot desert environments. Dry land ecosystems have a highly heterogeneous distribution of resources, with greater nutrient concentrations and microbial densities occurring in vegetated than in bare soils. In this work, we found it useful to use techniques of artificial intelligence in their treatment especially artificial neural networks (ANN). The use of the ANN model, demonstrate his capability for addressing the complex problems of uncertainty data.

Keywords: Desert soil, Climatic changes, Bacteria, Vegetation, Artificial neural networks.

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Authors: A. C. Khor, M. R. Mohamed, M. H. Sulaiman, M. R. Daud

Abstract:

Packaging for vanadium redox flow battery is one of the key elements for successful implementation of flow battery in the electrical energy storage system. Usually the bulky battery size and low energy densities make this technology not available for mobility application. ThereforeRFB with improved packaging size and energy capacity are highly desirable. This paper focuses on the study of packaging improvement for unit cell V-RFB to the application on Series Hybrid Electric Vehicle. Two different designs of 25cm² and 100cm² unit cell V-RFB at same current density are used for the sample in this investigation. Further suggestions on packaging improvement are highlighted.

Keywords: Electric vehicle, Redox flow battery, Packaging, Vanadium.

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Authors: C. Ardil

Abstract:

This article presents a new approach to uncertainty, vagueness, and imprecision analysis for ranking alternatives with fuzzy data for decision making using the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). In the proposed approach, fuzzy decision information related to the aircraft selection problem is taken into account in ranking the alternatives and selecting the best one. The basic procedural step is to transform the fuzzy decision matrices into matrices of alternatives evaluated according to all decision criteria. A numerical example illustrates the proposed approach for the military combat aircraft selection problem.

Keywords: trapezoidal fuzzy numbers, multiple criteria decision making analysis, decision making, aircraft selection, MCDMA, fuzzy TOPSIS

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Authors: Praloy Kumar Biswas, Prof. Dipanwita Roy Chowdhury

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Grobner basis calculation forms a key part of computational commutative algebra and many other areas. One important ramification of the theory of Grobner basis provides a means to solve a system of non-linear equations. This is why it has become very important in the areas where the solution of non-linear equations is needed, for instance in algebraic cryptanalysis and coding theory. This paper explores on a parallel-distributed implementation for Grobner basis calculation over GF(2). For doing so Buchberger algorithm is used. OpenMP and MPI-C language constructs have been used to implement the scheme. Some relevant results have been furnished to compare the performances between the standalone and hybrid (parallel-distributed) implementation.

Keywords: Grobner basis, Buchberger Algorithm, Distributed- Parallel Computation, OpenMP, MPI.

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Authors: T. Messikh, S. Mekhilef, N. A. Rahim

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This paper presents an effective technique for harmonic current mitigation using an adaptive notch filter (ANF) to estimate current harmonics. The proposed filter consists of multiple units of ANF connected in parallel structure; each unit is governed by two ordinary differential equations. The frequency estimation is carried out based on the output of these units. The simulation and experimental results show the ability of the proposed tracking scheme to accurately estimate harmonics. The proposed filter was implemented digitally in TMS320F2808 and used in the control of hybrid active power filter (HAPF). The theoretical expectations are verified and demonstrated experimentally.

Keywords: Adaptive notch filter, Active power filter, harmonic filtering, Time varying frequency.

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Authors: M. M. Fateh, A. Izadbakhsh

Abstract:

A robust control approach is proposed for a high speed manipulator using a hybrid computed torque control approach in the state space. The high-speed manipulator is driven by permanent magnet dc motors to track a trajectory in the joint space in the presence of disturbances. Tracking problem is analyzed in the state space where the completed models are considered for actuators. The proposed control approach can guarantee the stability and a satisfactory tracking performance. A two-link elbow manipulator driven by electrical actuators is simulated and results are shown to satisfy conditions under technical specifications.

Keywords: Computed torque, manipulator, robust control, state space.

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Authors: MohammadReza HeidariNezhad, Zuriati Ahmad Zukarnain, Nur Izura Udzir, Mohamed Othman

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In this paper, we propose APO, a new packet scheduling scheme with Quality of Service (QoS) support for hybrid of real and non-real time services in HSDPA networks. The APO scheduling algorithm is based on the effective channel anticipation model. In contrast to the traditional schemes, the proposed method is implemented based on a cyclic non-work-conserving discipline. Simulation results indicated that proposed scheme has good capability to maximize the channel usage efficiency in compared to another exist scheduling methods. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: Scheduling Algorithm, Quality of Service, HSDPA.

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Authors: Abdullah Alotaiq

Abstract:

The transition to low-carbon power generation is essential for mitigating climate change and achieving sustainability. This process, however, entails considerable costs, and understanding the factors influencing these costs is critical. This is necessary to cater to the increasing demand for low-carbon electricity across heating, industry, and transportation sectors. A crucial aspect of this transition is identifying cost-effective and feasible paths for decarbonization, which is integral to global climate mitigation efforts. It is concluded that hybrid solutions, combining different low-carbon technologies, are optimal for minimizing costs and enhancing flexibility. These solutions also address the challenges associated with phasing out existing fossil fuel-based power plants and broadening the spectrum of low-carbon power generation options.

Keywords: Review, power generation, energy transition, decarbonization.

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Authors: S. Suwannasri, R. Sirovetnukul

Abstract:

The effective machine-job assignment of injection molding machines is very important for industry because it is not only directly affects the quality of the product but also the performance and lifetime of the machine as well. The phase of machine selection was mostly done by professionals or experienced planners, so the possibility of matching a job with an inappropriate machine might occur when it was conducted by an inexperienced person. It could lead to an uneconomical plan and defects. This research aimed to develop a machine selection system for plastic injection machines as a tool to help in decision making of the user. This proposed system could be used both in normal times and in times of emergency. Fuzzy logic principle is applied to deal with uncertainty and mechanical factors in the selection of both quantity and quality criteria. The six criteria were obtained from a plastic manufacturer's case study to construct a system based on fuzzy logic theory using MATLAB. The results showed that the system was able to reduce the defects of Short Shot and Sink Mark to 24.0% and 8.0% and the total defects was reduced around 8.7% per month.

Keywords: Injection molding machine, machine selection, fuzzy logic, defects in injection molding, matlab.

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Authors: Danielle Sandler dos Passos, Helder Coelho, Flávia Mori Sarti

Abstract:

Analysing the world banking sector, we realize that traditional risk measurement methodologies no longer reflect the actual scenario with uncertainty and leave out events that can change the dynamics of markets. Considering this, regulators and financial institutions began to search more realistic models. The aim is to include external influences and interdependencies between agents, to describe and measure the operationalization of these complex systems and their risks in a more coherent and credible way. Within this context, X-Events are more frequent than assumed and, with uncertainties and constant changes, the concept of antifragility starts to gain great prominence in comparison to others methodologies of risk management. It is very useful to analyse whether a system succumbs (fragile), resists (robust) or gets benefits (antifragile) from disorder and stress. Thus, this work proposes the creation of the Banking Antifragility Index (BAI), which is based on the calculation of a triangular fuzzy number – to "quantify" qualitative criteria linked to antifragility.

Keywords: Complex adaptive systems, X-events, risk management, antifragility, banking antifragility index, triangular fuzzy number.

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Authors: Tadeusz Witkowski, Paweł Antczak, Arkadiusz Antczak

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In the paper we discuss the influence of the route flexibility degree, the open rate of operations and the production type coefficient on makespan. The flexible job-open shop scheduling problem FJOSP (an extension of the classical job shop scheduling) is analyzed. For the analysis of the production process we used a hybrid heuristic of the GRASP (greedy randomized adaptive search procedure) with simulated annealing algorithm. Experiments with different levels of factors have been considered and compared. The GRASP+SA algorithm has been tested and illustrated with results for the serial route and the parallel one.

Keywords: Makespan, open shop, route flexibility, serial and parallel route, simulation modeling, type of production.

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Authors: Hossein Sahoolizadeh, Davood Sarikhanimoghadam, Hamid Dehghani

Abstract:

This paper proposes new hybrid approaches for face recognition. Gabor wavelets representation of face images is an effective approach for both facial action recognition and face identification. Perform dimensionality reduction and linear discriminate analysis on the down sampled Gabor wavelet faces can increase the discriminate ability. Nearest feature space is extended to various similarity measures. In our experiments, proposed Gabor wavelet faces combined with extended neural net feature space classifier shows very good performance, which can achieve 93 % maximum correct recognition rate on ORL data set without any preprocessing step.

Keywords: Face detection, Neural Networks, Multi-layer Perceptron, Gabor wavelets.

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Authors: K. Geetha, P. Thangaraj, C. Rasi Priya, C. Rajan, S. Geetha

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This paper presents the performance of Integrated Bacterial Foraging Optimization and Particle Swarm Optimization (IBFO_PSO) technique in MANET routing. The BFO is a bio-inspired algorithm, which simulates the foraging behavior of bacteria. It is effectively applied in improving the routing performance in MANET. In results, it is proved that the PSO integrated with BFO reduces routing delay, energy consumption and communication overhead.

Keywords: Ant Colony Optimization, Bacterial Foraging Optimization, Hybrid Routing Intelligent Algorithm, Naturally inspired algorithms, Particle Swarm Optimization.

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Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver

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This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data. 

Keywords: Emergency Safety Stocks, Safety stocks, Order Quantity Model, Supply chain.

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Authors: Αlexios Kotsakis, Stefanos Katsavounis, Dimitra Alexiou

Abstract:

Networks can be utilized to represent project planning problems, using nodes for activities and arcs to indicate precedence relationship between them. For fixed activity duration, a simple algorithm calculates the amount of time required to complete a project, followed by the activities that comprise the critical path. Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) generalizes the above model by incorporating uncertainty, allowing activity durations to be random variables, producing nevertheless a relatively crude solution in planning problems. In this paper, based on the findings of the relevant literature, which strongly suggests that a Beta distribution can be employed to model earthmoving activities, we utilize Monte Carlo simulation, to estimate the project completion time distribution and measure the influence of skewness, an element inherent in activities of modern technical projects. We also extract the activity criticality index, with an ultimate goal to produce more accurate planning estimations.

Keywords: Beta distribution, PERT, Monte Carlo Simulation, skewness, project completion time distribution.

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Authors: L. Zehtaban, D. Roller

Abstract:

Apart from geometry, functionality is one of the most significant hallmarks of a product. The functionality of a product can be considered as the fundamental justification for a product existence. Therefore a functional analysis including a complete and reliable descriptor has a high potential to improve product development process in various fields especially in knowledge-based design. One of the important applications of the functional analysis and indexing is in retrieval and design reuse concept. More than 75% of design activity for a new product development contains reusing earlier and existing design know-how. Thus, analysis and categorization of product functions concluded by functional indexing, influences directly in design optimization. This paper elucidates and evaluates major classes for functional analysis by discussing their major methods. Moreover it is finalized by presenting a noble hybrid approach for functional analysis.

Keywords: Functional analysis, design reuse, functionalindexing and representation.

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Authors: Boonorm Chomtee, John J. Borkowski

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The objective of the research is to study and compare response surface designs: Central composite designs (CCD), Box- Behnken designs (BBD), Small composite designs (SCD), Hybrid designs, and Uniform shell designs (USD) over sets of reduced models when the design is in a spherical region for 3 and 4 design variables. The two optimality criteria ( D and G ) are considered which larger values imply a better design. The comparison of design optimality criteria of the response surface designs across the full second order model and sets of reduced models for 3 and 4 factors based on the two criteria are presented.

Keywords: design optimality criteria, reduced models, response surface design, spherical design region

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Authors: A. Smagina, A. Lindemanis

Abstract:

In the time of globalisation, growing uncertainty, ambiguity and change, traditional way of doing business are no longer sufficient and it is important to consider non-conventional methods and approaches to release creativity and facilitate innovation and growth. Thus, creative industries, as a natural source of creativity and innovation, draw particular attention. This paper explores feasibility of building creative partnerships between creative industries and business and brings attention to mutual benefits derived from such partnerships. Design/approach - This paper is a theoretical exploration of projects, practices and research findings addressing collaboration between creative industries and business. Thus, it concerns creative industries, arts, business and its representatives in order to define requirements for creative partnerships to work and succeed. Findings – Current practices in engaging into arts-business partnerships are still very few, although most of creative partnerships proved to be highly valuable and mutually beneficial. Certain conditions shall be provided in order to benefit from arts-business creative synergy. Originality/value- By integrating different sources of literature, this article provides a base for conducting empirical research in several dimensions within arts-business partnerships.

Keywords: Arts, artists, business, creative industries, partnership

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

Abstract:

It is necessary to predict a fatigue crack propagation life for estimation of structural integrity. Because of an uncertainty and a randomness of a structural behavior, it is also required to analyze stochastic characteristics of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size. The essential purpose of this study is to find the effect of load ratio on probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified grown crack size and to confirm the good probability distribution in magnesium alloys under various fatigue load ratio conditions. To investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior, fatigue crack propagation experiments are performed in laboratory air under several conditions of fatigue load ratio using AZ31. By Anderson-Darling test, a goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is performed. The effect of load ratio on variability of fatigue crack propagation life is also investigated.

Keywords: Load ratio, fatigue crack propagation life, Magnesium alloys, probability distribution.

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Authors: H. Ifassiouen, H. Medromi, N. E. Radhy

Abstract:

In this paper, we present the recently implemented approach allowing dynamics systems to plan its actions, taking into account the environment perception changes, and to control their execution when uncertainty and incomplete knowledge are the major characteristics of the situated environment [1],[2],[3],[4]. The control distributed architecture has three modules and the approach is related to hierarchical planning: the plan produced by the planner is further refined at the control layer that in turn supervises its execution by a functional level. We propose a new intelligent distributed architecture constituted by: Multi-Agent subsystem of the sensor, of the interpretation and representation of environment [9], of the dynamic localization and of the action. We tested this distributed architecture with dynamic system in the known environment. The autonomous for Rotor Mini Rotorcraft task is described by the primitive actions. The distributed controlbased on multi-agent system is in charge of achieving each task in the best possible way taking into account the context and sensory feedback.

Keywords: Autonomous four rotors helicopter, Control system, Hierarchical planning, Intelligent Distributed Architecture.

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Authors: R.K. Behera, S.Behera

Abstract:

In a wind power generator using doubly fed induction generator (DFIG), the three-phase pulse width modulation (PWM) voltage source converter (VSC) is used as grid side converter (GSC) and rotor side converter (RSC). The standard linear control laws proposed for GSC provides not only instablity against comparatively large-signal disturbances, but also the problem of stability due to uncertainty of load and variations in parameters. In this paper, a nonlinear controller is designed for grid side converter (GSC) of a DFIG for wind power application. The nonlinear controller is designed based on the input-output feedback linearization control method. The resulting closed-loop system ensures a sufficient stability region, make robust to variations in circuit parameters and also exhibits good transient response. Computer simulations and experimental results are presented to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.

Keywords: Doubly fed Induction Generator, grid side converter, machine side converter, dc link, feedback linearization.

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Authors: Vivekanandan C., Prabhakar .R., Prema D.

Abstract:

This paper presents the application of discrete-time variable structure control with sliding mode based on the 'reaching law' method for robust control of a 'simple inverted pendulum on moving cart' - a standard nonlinear benchmark system. The controllers designed using the above techniques are completely insensitive to parametric uncertainty and external disturbance. The controller design is carried out using pole placement technique to find state feedback gain matrix , which decides the dynamic behavior of the system during sliding mode. This is followed by feedback gain realization using the control law which is synthesized from 'Gao-s reaching law'. The model of a single inverted pendulum and the discrete variable structure control controller are developed, simulated in MATLAB-SIMULINK and results are presented. The response of this simulation is compared with that of the discrete linear quadratic regulator (DLQR) and the advantages of sliding mode controller over DLQR are also presented

Keywords: Inverted pendulum, Variable Structure, Sliding mode control, Discrete-time systems, Nonlinear systems.

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Authors: J- L. Siméon

Abstract:

This paper reviews recent studies and particularly the effects of Climate Change in the North Tropical Atlantic by studying atmospheric conditions that prevailed in 2005 ; Coral Bleaching HotSpot and Hurricane Katrina. In the aim to better understand and estimate the impact of the physical phenomenon, i.e. Thermal Oceanic HotSpot (TOHS), isotopic studies of δ18O and δ13C on marine animals from Guadeloupe (French Caribbean Island) were carried out. Recorded measures show Sea Surface Temperature (SST) up to 35°C in August which is much higher than data recorded by NOAA satellites 32°C. After having reviewed the process that led to the creation of Hurricane Katrina which hit New Orleans in August 29, 2005, it will be shown that the climatic conditions in the Caribbean from August to October 2005 have influenced Katrina evolution. This TOHS is a combined effect of various phenomenon which represent an additional factor to estimate future climate changes.

Keywords: Climate Change, Thermal Ocean HotSpot, Isotope, Hurricane, Connection, Uncertainty, Sea, Science.

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Authors: I. Abasi, L. Fata, M. Sadeghi, S. Banihashemi, A. Mohammadee

Abstract:

Background: Dimensional and transdiagnostic approaches as a result of high comorbidity among mental disorders have captured researchers and clinicians interests for exploring the latent factors to development and maintenance of some psychological disorders. The goal of present study is comparing some of these common factors between generalized anxiety disorder and unipolar mood disorder. Methods: 27 patients with generalized anxiety disorder, 29 patients with depression disorder were recruited by using SCID-I and 69 non-clinical populations were selected by using GHQ cut off point. MANCOVA was used for analyzing data. Results: The results show that worry, rumination, intolerance of uncertainty, maladaptive metacognitive beliefs, and experiential avoidance were all significantly different between GAD and unipolar mood disorder groups. However, there weren’t any significant differences in difficulties in emotion regulation and neuroticism between GAD and unipolar mood disorder groups. Discussion: Results indicate that although there are some transdiagnostic and common factors in GAD and unipolar mood disorder, there may be some specific vulnerability factors for each disorder. Further study is needed for answering these questions.

Keywords: Depression, emotion regulation, generalized anxiety disorder, transdiagnostic.

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Authors: Jan-Tore H. Horn, Jørgen Juncher Jensen

Abstract:

Uncertainties related to fatigue damage estimation of non-linear systems are highly dependent on the tail behaviour and extreme values of the stress range distribution. By using a combination of the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), the accuracy of the fatigue estimations may be improved for the same computational efforts. The method is applied to a bottom-fixed, monopile-supported large offshore wind turbine, which is a non-linear and dynamically sensitive system. Different curve fitting techniques to the fatigue damage distribution have been used depending on the sea-state dependent response characteristics, and the effect of a bi-linear S-N curve is discussed. Finally, analyses are performed on several environmental conditions to investigate the long-term applicability of this multistep method. Wave loads are calculated using state-of-the-art theory, while wind loads are applied with a simplified model based on rotor thrust coefficients.

Keywords: Fatigue damage, FORM, monopile, monte carlo simulation, reliability, wind turbine.

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